diff --git a/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a873c8bfa0 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the Cold Weather Payment plan (docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md): the full regulation 1A conditions (care homes, England and Wales, Income Support and JSA premiums, mortgage-interest loans with Pension Credit), the winter 2022-23 Scottish replacement, the Winter Heating Payment rule and the weather data source. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md index b24fd6315b..591ff5c6c8 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md @@ -14,7 +14,8 @@ In Scotland the equivalent is the **Winter Heating Payment**, a flat annual payment (£62.00 from April 2026, regulation 9 of [SSI 2023/16](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents) as amended), which -replaced Cold Weather Payment there in 2023. It isn't modelled either. +replaced Cold Weather Payment there from winter 2022-23 (first paid in +February 2023). It isn't modelled either. The separate Pension Age Winter Heating Payment, which replaced Winter Fuel Payment in Scotland, is modelled under `gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp`. Updated October 2026: amounts, @@ -24,7 +25,7 @@ legislation and the Scotland and Northern Ireland position checked. ## What CWP is Defined in [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) -Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if +Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A claimant qualifies if **all** of the following hold: - The address is in a postcode linked to a weather station where the @@ -33,15 +34,21 @@ Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if - A member of the benefit unit receives a **qualifying benefit**: Pension Credit; income-related ESA in the support or work-related activity group, or with a severe or enhanced disability premium, a - pensioner premium, a disabled child or a child under 5 (the - Regulations extend the same premium test to Income Support and - income-based JSA); Universal Credit when neither the claimant nor a - partner is employed or gainfully self-employed and someone has - limited capability for work or there is a child under 5, or, whether - working or not, when the award includes a disabled child amount; or - Support for Mortgage Interest with one of those premiums or children. - The [GOV.UK eligibility page](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility) - has the exact conditions. + pensioner premium, a disabled child or a child under 5 (Income Support + and income-based JSA qualify on a similar test, under which the + disability, higher pensioner and disabled child premiums also count); + Universal Credit when neither the claimant nor a partner is employed + or gainfully self-employed and someone has limited capability for + work or there is a child under 5, or, whether working or not, when the + award includes a disabled child amount; or Support for Mortgage + Interest, either while treated as entitled to Pension Credit (no + further condition) or with one of those premiums or children. The + [GOV.UK eligibility page](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility) + summarises them; regulation 1A has the full conditions. +- The home is in England or Wales, and the claimant doesn't live in a + care home, an independent hospital or certain other accommodation, + unless the family includes a child under 5 or child tax credit + includes a disability element (regulation 1A(4) and (8)). The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period, and each further cold period triggers another payment. Spending varies a lot with the winter: in @@ -54,22 +61,25 @@ weekly triggers, from which payments can be estimated. ## Why this is harder than other DWP benefits -The eligibility test combines an administrative benefit check (clean -for PolicyEngine) with a **geographic weather event** (no FRS -analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: +The eligibility test combines an administrative benefit check (mostly +covered by existing PolicyEngine variables, though Support for Mortgage +Interest and the legacy pensioner premium aren't modelled) with a +**geographic weather event** (no FRS analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: 1. **Expected-value parameterisation**: a single national - `cold_weather_payments_expected_periods` parameter capturing the - long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered per winter. - Multiply by £25 and by the qualifying household flag to produce the expected - annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in + `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_per_year` parameter + capturing the long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered + per winter. Multiply by £25 and by the qualifying benefit-unit flag to + produce the expected annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in any specific winter. 2. **Regional weather mixing**: a per-region weather-event - distribution (for example, the North East has more cold periods than London on - average), parameterised from Met Office historic data. Captures the + distribution (for example, the North East has more cold periods than + London on average), parameterised from DWP's trigger counts by + weather station. Captures the distributional skew without forecasting any particular winter. 3. **Year-specific lookups**: tabulate the DWP-published *Cold Weather - Payment statistics* by region by year and use those as historical + Payment estimates* by weather station by year (mapped to regions + through DWP's postcode-district lists) and use those as historical inputs. Most accurate for back-cast simulations; needs ongoing updating. @@ -99,8 +109,8 @@ benefits) at the cost of smoothing year-to-year weather variance. ### Phase 2: regional weather mixing Add a `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_by_region` table -parameterised from Met Office observation data, and a household-side -lookup by `region`. +parameterised from DWP's trigger counts by weather station, and a +household-side lookup by `region`. ### Phase 3: Scotland's Winter Heating Payment @@ -113,9 +123,12 @@ child-under-5 conditions), assessed in a qualifying week (2 to 8 November in 2026), but the payment is a flat annual amount with no weather trigger. So: -- `winter_heating_payment_eligible`: the Phase 1 eligibility rule plus - residence in Scotland. Reuse the Phase 1 variable rather than a second - copy of the benefit conditions. +- `winter_heating_payment_eligible`: the Phase 1 benefit conditions, + without Cold Weather Payment's care-home and England-and-Wales + conditions (and without the child tax credit disability element, + which Winter Heating Payment dropped in 2025), plus residence in + Scotland in the qualifying week. Reuse the Phase 1 benefit-condition + variable rather than a second copy of the benefit conditions. - `winter_heating_payment` = `amount` × eligible, with `amount` uprated each year (£62.00 from April 2026). @@ -123,15 +136,23 @@ weather trigger. So: - DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments): estimated eligible numbers at the start of each season and weekly triggers by weather station. The main calibration source. - Social Security Scotland's Winter Heating Payment statistics: Phase 3 calibration. -- Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data): Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. - -The FRS gives `region` cleanly, so the geographic gate is no extra -data work for Phases 1 and 2. +- DWP's trigger counts by weather station (Table 3 of each season's + *Cold Weather Payment estimates*), mapped to regions through DWP's + postcode-district lists: Phase 2 regional expected-period + parameterisation. The Met Office's + [historic station data](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data) + gives only monthly series for 37 stations, so it can serve as a + cross-check but can't count 7-day cold periods. + +The FRS records `region`, from which the model derives `country`, so the +England-and-Wales and Scotland gates need no extra data. Region is a +coarse stand-in for the weather-station areas that trigger payments, so +Phase 2 models a regional average, not individual stations. ## Open questions - The qualifying-benefit list is narrower than for the Warm Home - Discount in England and Wales, which now covers everyone on + Discount in England and Wales, which now covers bill-payers on Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, income-related ESA or Pension Credit. Model the eligibility as one composite variable, shared with the Scottish Winter Heating Payment, or as separate flags by route