From f5fc808d066a9ae9eb7a832f36a67e311aac0b55 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 11:51:22 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Add regional childcare programmes planning doc (#1008) #1008 flagged that PolicyEngine UK's childcare coverage is England-only (plus the recently-added Scottish Universal Funded ELC in #1643). The #1644 audit enumerated the remaining gaps in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Persist the plan in-repo at docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md, covering: - the current state by jurisdiction (UK-wide + England complete, Scotland partial after #1643, Wales/NI empty), - the three remaining Scottish strands (eligible-2yo, SAAS grants, Scottish EMA equivalent), - the four Welsh programmes (Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant, Welsh EMA) with the Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019 reference, - the four NI programmes (PSEP, Sure Start, Student Finance NI Childcare Grant, NI EMA), - the per-programme implementation pattern (parameter tree + variable + _eligible companion + programs.yaml row), - two structural cleanups from the #1644 audit that become more pressing once the regional programmes land (regionalising weeks_per_year / childcare_funding_rate, an aggregating "total subsidised hours" variable), - data sources for each region's calibration targets, - open questions on splitting vs unifying the Scottish ELC variables, Welsh LSOA cross-walks for Flying Start, and EMA modelling. Cross-links to the #1644 audit and the recently-landed Scottish PR #1643 so the three pages function as a coherent reference. --- .../gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md | 160 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 160 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e9afde54d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,160 @@ +# Regional childcare programmes (planned) + +```{warning} +**Partially modelled.** PolicyEngine UK models the **England** funded +childcare programmes (Universal, Extended and Targeted Childcare +Entitlements; Care to Learn; Student Finance England Childcare Grant) +and the **UK-wide** Tax-Free Childcare scheme. The devolved +administrations operate parallel schemes that are not yet modelled +beyond the Scottish Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds added +in [#1643][pr-1643]. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked +under [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) +and the broader [#1644 audit](./../../../programs.yaml). +``` + +## What's modelled today + +The current childcare coverage is captured in `programs.yaml` (see the +[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: + +- **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare + element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (DWP, legacy, see + [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)). +- **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`): + Universal Childcare Entitlement (15h), Extended Childcare Entitlement + (30h working parents), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged + 2-year-olds + working families with younger children), Care to Learn, + Student Finance England Childcare Grant. +- **Scotland**: Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds (1,140 + hrs/year) added in [#1643][pr-1643]. +- **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. + +## Proposed scope by jurisdiction + +### Scotland — three remaining strands + +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: + +1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme + (vulnerable / low-income 2-year-olds under the + [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) + (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the + 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on a means test against UC / + tax credits / equivalent qualifying benefits. +2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant, + Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students + — the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare + Grant. Income-tested, paid at standard weekly rates. +3. **Scottish EMA-equivalent** for young parents in further education + (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid by local + authorities in Scotland under SAAS oversight; the childcare-support + layer parallels Care to Learn in England). + +### Wales + +The audit identified four Welsh programmes: + +1. **Childcare Offer for Wales** — 30 hours/week for working parents + of 3- and 4-year-olds (term-time + a portion of holiday weeks). + Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement + with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis: + [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. +2. **Flying Start** — universal preschool offer in disadvantaged areas + for 2- and 3-year-olds (12.5 hours/week). Geographic eligibility + based on lower-super-output-area data. +3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant** — parallel to the English + Childcare Grant. +4. **Welsh EMA** — parallel to Scottish EMA. + +### Northern Ireland + +The audit identified four NI programmes: + +1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)** — 12.5 hours/week for 3- + and 4-year-olds. Universal. +2. **Sure Start** — younger disadvantaged children (2-3yo). +3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**. +4. **NI EMA**. + +## Implementation outline + +For each new programme: + +- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov///` + capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. +- New variable(s) under `variables/gov///` gated on + the appropriate `country == ...` check. +- A `_eligible` companion variable that the new programme + variable composes with the rate parameter — same pattern as the + English entitlement trio. +- A `programs.yaml` row per programme, bound to the new variable and + parameter prefix. + +### Structural items deferred to this work + +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that +become more pressing once the regional programmes land: + +- `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at + `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate + assumptions. They should be regionalised (e.g. + `gov.scotland.elc.weeks_per_year`) once the Scotland / Wales / NI + programmes are modelled. +- No aggregating variable across programmes exists (e.g. "total + subsidised childcare hours per child per week"). The API surfaces + the per-programme variables but can't answer "what's this family's + combined childcare support" without the caller summing. + +Both belong in a separate cleanup PR rather than mixed into the +per-programme work. + +## Data needs + +Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather +than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy: + +- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level — + enough to gate eligibility. +- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start + and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority. +- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide + Scottish funded ELC caseloads. +- **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads. +- The SAAS / Student Finance Wales / NI Childcare Grants need the same + treatment as the English `childcare_grant` — calibration against + published award totals. + +The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised +hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level +variable. Recommendation: subsidised cost, since that's what flows +through to `household_market_income` and the UC childcare element +disregards. + +## Open questions + +- Should the Scottish ELC universal strand and the eligible-two-year-old + strand be modelled as two separate variables (matching how England + splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the + age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring + the English pattern for queryability. +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Do we have a postcode-to-LSOA + cross-walk in the FRS pipeline? +- All four EMA / EMA-equivalent schemes are now extinct in England but + still operational in the devolved nations. Should they be modelled + under the existing `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate + regional schemes? + +## References + +- Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644) — full childcare coverage audit. +- Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) — original Scotland/Wales/NI gap report. +- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643] — Scottish Universal Funded ELC. +- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](../../../../policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). +- Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. +- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. + +[issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644 +[pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643 +[wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents +[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made +[saas-ema]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/funding/maintenance-allowance From f5dbc7131e4f0bb256232376a309b14a73f9fad5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 11:51:44 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] Add changelog entry for the regional childcare plan --- changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md | 1 + 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+) create mode 100644 changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c54849d105 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a regional childcare programmes planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md` enumerating the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled (Scottish eligible-2yo strand, SAAS grants; Welsh Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Welsh student grants; NI Pre-school Education Programme, Sure Start, NI student grants) and the per-programme implementation pattern that complements the #1644 audit. From 4f8b8f16f06b88b69809b379d775f62efec430a6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2026 15:49:31 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] Refresh the page against current main and Microcosm UK; type the changelog fragment Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md | 1 + changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md | 1 - .../gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md | 32 +++++++++++-------- 3 files changed, 19 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..339f8f401f --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Added a regional childcare planning page (docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md) listing the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled and how to add them. diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md deleted file mode 100644 index c54849d105..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -- Add a regional childcare programmes planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md` enumerating the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled (Scottish eligible-2yo strand, SAAS grants; Welsh Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Welsh student grants; NI Pre-school Education Programme, Sure Start, NI student grants) and the per-programme implementation pattern that complements the #1644 audit. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md index e9afde54d4..c00fe0b105 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -9,12 +9,13 @@ administrations operate parallel schemes that are not yet modelled beyond the Scottish Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds added in [#1643][pr-1643]. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked under [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) -and the broader [#1644 audit](./../../../programs.yaml). +and the broader [#1644 audit][issue-1644]. ``` ## What's modelled today -The current childcare coverage is captured in `programs.yaml` (see the +The current childcare coverage is captured in +[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (see the [#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: - **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare @@ -25,8 +26,10 @@ The current childcare coverage is captured in `programs.yaml` (see the (30h working parents), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged 2-year-olds + working families with younger children), Care to Learn, Student Finance England Childcare Grant. -- **Scotland**: Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds (1,140 - hrs/year) added in [#1643][pr-1643]. +- **Scotland**: eligibility for the universal funded ELC for 3- and + 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`) and + its 1,140 hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is + attached yet, so it does not reach household income. - **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. ## Proposed scope by jurisdiction @@ -46,9 +49,9 @@ The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: — the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare Grant. Income-tested, paid at standard weekly rates. 3. **Scottish EMA-equivalent** for young parents in further education - (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid by local - authorities in Scotland under SAAS oversight; the childcare-support - layer parallels Care to Learn in England). + (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid through + schools, colleges and local authorities in Scotland; the + childcare-support layer parallels Care to Learn in England). ### Wales @@ -137,19 +140,20 @@ disregards. splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring the English pattern for queryability. -- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Do we have a postcode-to-LSOA - cross-walk in the FRS pipeline? -- All four EMA / EMA-equivalent schemes are now extinct in England but - still operational in the devolved nations. Should they be modelled - under the existing `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate - regional schemes? +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK assigns each household + to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility by area is + now possible once the Flying Start area list is sourced. +- EMA ended in England but still runs in Scotland, Wales and Northern + Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` are reported amounts with + no formula. Should the devolved schemes be modelled under the existing + `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate regional schemes? ## References - Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644) — full childcare coverage audit. - Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) — original Scotland/Wales/NI gap report. - Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643] — Scottish Universal Funded ELC. -- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](../../../../policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). +- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). - Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. - Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. From b44d9fdac6fe2a5107599237c4bf83be8ce61c2b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 11:05:43 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] Correct the regional childcare plan against current main Targeted entitlement is the 2-year-old offer, not working families; the English entitlements feed household_benefits, not market income; use the scottish_government parameter path; replace the SAAS EMA link with mygov.scot; drop em dashes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md | 92 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 48 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md index c00fe0b105..2b4dd6608c 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -12,70 +12,75 @@ under [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) and the broader [#1644 audit][issue-1644]. ``` -## What's modelled today +## What is modelled today The current childcare coverage is captured in [`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (see the [#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: - **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare - element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (DWP, legacy, see + element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (legacy, HMRC + administered, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)). - **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`): - Universal Childcare Entitlement (15h), Extended Childcare Entitlement - (30h working parents), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged - 2-year-olds + working families with younger children), Care to Learn, + Universal Childcare Entitlement (15 hours for 3- and 4-year-olds), + Extended Childcare Entitlement (working parents, now reaching down to + children aged nine months), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (2-year-olds + in families on qualifying benefits or low incomes), Care to Learn, Student Finance England Childcare Grant. - **Scotland**: eligibility for the universal funded ELC for 3- and - 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`) and - its 1,140 hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is - attached yet, so it does not reach household income. + 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, + including the statutory start-date rule for 3-year-olds) and its 1,140 + hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is attached + yet, so it does not reach household income. - **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. ## Proposed scope by jurisdiction -### Scotland — three remaining strands +### Scotland: three remaining strands The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: 1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme - (vulnerable / low-income 2-year-olds under the + (vulnerable or low-income 2-year-olds under the [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the - 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on a means test against UC / - tax credits / equivalent qualifying benefits. + 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on UC, tax credits or other + qualifying benefits. 2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant, - Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students - — the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare - Grant. Income-tested, paid at standard weekly rates. -3. **Scottish EMA-equivalent** for young parents in further education - (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid through - schools, colleges and local authorities in Scotland; the - childcare-support layer parallels Care to Learn in England). + Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students: + the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare + Grant. Income-tested. +3. **Support for young parents in further education**, the role Care to + Learn plays in England. The [Education Maintenance Allowance][scot-ema] + still runs in Scotland for 16- to 19-year-olds, applied for through + local councils and colleges, but it is a maintenance payment rather + than childcare support, so the childcare side needs its own scoping. ### Wales The audit identified four Welsh programmes: -1. **Childcare Offer for Wales** — 30 hours/week for working parents - of 3- and 4-year-olds (term-time + a portion of holiday weeks). +1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: 30 hours a week for working parents + of 3- and 4-year-olds (term time plus some holiday weeks). Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. -2. **Flying Start** — universal preschool offer in disadvantaged areas - for 2- and 3-year-olds (12.5 hours/week). Geographic eligibility - based on lower-super-output-area data. -3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant** — parallel to the English +2. **Flying Start**: a universal offer in disadvantaged areas for + 2- to 3-year-olds (12.5 hours a week). Eligibility is geographic, + based on lower layer super output areas. +3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant**, parallel to the English Childcare Grant. -4. **Welsh EMA** — parallel to Scottish EMA. +4. **Welsh EMA**, parallel to the Scottish EMA. ### Northern Ireland The audit identified four NI programmes: -1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)** — 12.5 hours/week for 3- - and 4-year-olds. Universal. -2. **Sure Start** — younger disadvantaged children (2-3yo). +1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: 12.5 hours a week in the + year before school. Universal. +2. **Sure Start**: younger children in disadvantaged areas, including a + programme for 2-year-olds. 3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**. 4. **NI EMA**. @@ -88,7 +93,7 @@ For each new programme: - New variable(s) under `variables/gov///` gated on the appropriate `country == ...` check. - A `_eligible` companion variable that the new programme - variable composes with the rate parameter — same pattern as the + variable composes with the rate parameter, the same pattern as the English entitlement trio. - A `programs.yaml` row per programme, bound to the new variable and parameter prefix. @@ -100,10 +105,10 @@ become more pressing once the regional programmes land: - `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate - assumptions. They should be regionalised (e.g. - `gov.scotland.elc.weeks_per_year`) once the Scotland / Wales / NI - programmes are modelled. -- No aggregating variable across programmes exists (e.g. "total + assumptions. They should be regionalised (for example + `gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.weeks_per_year`) + once the Scotland, Wales and NI programmes are modelled. +- No aggregating variable across programmes exists (for example "total subsidised childcare hours per child per week"). The API surfaces the per-programme variables but can't answer "what's this family's combined childcare support" without the caller summing. @@ -116,22 +121,21 @@ per-programme work. Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy: -- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level — +- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level, enough to gate eligibility. - **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority. - **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide Scottish funded ELC caseloads. - **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads. -- The SAAS / Student Finance Wales / NI Childcare Grants need the same - treatment as the English `childcare_grant` — calibration against +- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and NI childcare grants need the same + treatment as the English `childcare_grant`: calibration against published award totals. The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level -variable. Recommendation: subsidised cost, since that's what flows -through to `household_market_income` and the UC childcare element -disregards. +variable. Recommendation: subsidised cost, since that is how the English +entitlements already enter `household_benefits` and `gov_spending`. ## Open questions @@ -150,9 +154,9 @@ disregards. ## References -- Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644) — full childcare coverage audit. -- Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) — original Scotland/Wales/NI gap report. -- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643] — Scottish Universal Funded ELC. +- Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644), the full childcare coverage audit. +- Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008), the original Scotland, Wales and NI gap report. +- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC. - Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). - Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. - Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. @@ -161,4 +165,4 @@ disregards. [pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643 [wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents [sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made -[saas-ema]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/funding/maintenance-allowance +[scot-ema]: https://www.mygov.scot/ema From 1cb6b55f2c3870f384fc29946c91dda0a4a6e01d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 11:41:48 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 5/6] Say Flying Start area eligibility needs the Microcosm UK dataset Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md | 8 +++++--- 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md index 2b4dd6608c..225a5291e6 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -144,9 +144,11 @@ entitlements already enter `household_benefits` and `gov_spending`. splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring the English pattern for queryability. -- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK assigns each household - to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility by area is - now possible once the Flying Start area list is sourced. +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the dataset being + built to replace the Enhanced FRS, assigns each household in England + and Wales to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility + by area becomes possible on that dataset once the Flying Start area + list is sourced. - EMA ended in England but still runs in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` are reported amounts with no formula. Should the devolved schemes be modelled under the existing From 78d4f53a4968ad0d8e134d0245f1c26c1b57346e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 01:55:13 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] Correct the regional childcare plan against current law, data and main The page reached main through #2386 and its changelog line shipped in 2.144.0, so this drops the released .added fragment and corrects the page: - programs.yaml rows were split by #1703 (not #1644); Care to Learn and the Scottish ELC have no row. - Targeted entitlement low-income route is UC or tax credits below a limit. - The Scottish 3-year-old start date is an input, not a computed rule. - Eligible two-year-olds: the Act s. 47(3) covers looked-after and kinship children; Child Tax Credit left the Order's benefit list from 6 April 2025. - SAAS: the Childcare Funds (LPCG, not income-assessed) are the childcare support; the Dependants' Grant is for adult dependants. - Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP hours and eligibility per gov.wales and the Department of Education NI. - The FRS supplies region; the model derives country. - The English Childcare Grant has no calibration target in uk-data. - Microcosm UK is now the default dataset; only its local-area build has Output Areas. - SSI, not SSSI; link the revised Order. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md | 1 + .../1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md | 1 - .../gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md | 157 +++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 101 insertions(+), 58 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5d3cde9a71 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the regional childcare planning page (docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md) against current law, data and main: the Scottish two-year-old, SAAS, Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP descriptions, the Childcare Grant calibration claim and the Microcosm UK geography. diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md deleted file mode 100644 index 339f8f401f..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.added.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -Added a regional childcare planning page (docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md) listing the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled and how to add them. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md index 225a5291e6..4a1efeb7f5 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -14,25 +14,30 @@ and the broader [#1644 audit][issue-1644]. ## What is modelled today -The current childcare coverage is captured in -[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (see the -[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: +The current childcare coverage is recorded in +[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml), +where [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703) +split the old umbrella entry into per-programme rows after the +[#1644 audit][issue-1644]. Care to Learn and the Scottish funded ELC have +no row yet. Coverage works as follows: - **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (legacy, HMRC - administered, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see + administered, ended 5 April 2025, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)). - **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`): Universal Childcare Entitlement (15 hours for 3- and 4-year-olds), Extended Childcare Entitlement (working parents, now reaching down to children aged nine months), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (2-year-olds - in families on qualifying benefits or low incomes), Care to Learn, - Student Finance England Childcare Grant. + in families on qualifying benefits, or on Universal Credit or tax + credits with income below a limit), Care to Learn, Student Finance + England Childcare Grant. - **Scotland**: eligibility for the universal funded ELC for 3- and - 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, - including the statutory start-date rule for 3-year-olds) and its 1,140 - hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is attached - yet, so it does not reach household income. + 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, with + the statutory start date for 3-year-olds taken as an input, + `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`) and its + 1,140 hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is + attached yet, so it does not reach household income. - **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. ## Proposed scope by jurisdiction @@ -41,16 +46,25 @@ The current childcare coverage is captured in The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: -1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme - (vulnerable or low-income 2-year-olds under the - [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) - (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the - 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on UC, tax credits or other - qualifying benefits. -2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant, - Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students: - the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare - Grant. Income-tested. +1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme: + 2-year-olds who are looked after, under a kinship care order or with + an appointed guardian ([Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 + s. 47(3)][cyp-47]), or whose parent receives a qualifying benefit + under the [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified + Children) (Scotland) Order 2014][ssi-196-2014]. It would be modelled + the same way as the 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on those + conditions. The qualifying benefits include Universal Credit with + earned income of up to £850 an assessment period; Child Tax Credit + was removed from the list from 6 April 2025 ([SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025]). +2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) support for student + parents**: the Childcare Funds that universities and colleges pay out + (a Lone Parents' Childcare Grant of up to £1,215 a year, not + income-assessed, plus discretionary help assessed on need), the + closest Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare + Grant ([SAAS childcare fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare]); + and SAAS's income-assessed Lone Parents' Grant (up to £1,305). The + audit also listed SAAS's Dependants' Grant, but that supports adult + dependants rather than children. 3. **Support for young parents in further education**, the role Care to Learn plays in England. The [Education Maintenance Allowance][scot-ema] still runs in Scotland for 16- to 19-year-olds, applied for through @@ -61,14 +75,21 @@ The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: The audit identified four Welsh programmes: -1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: 30 hours a week for working parents - of 3- and 4-year-olds (term time plus some holiday weeks). +1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: up to 30 hours a week of combined + nursery education (at least 10 hours) and childcare, for up to 48 + weeks a year, for 3- and 4-year-olds of working parents or parents in + further or higher education + ([gov.wales](https://www.gov.wales/get-30-hours-childcare-3-and-4-year-olds)). Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. -2. **Flying Start**: a universal offer in disadvantaged areas for - 2- to 3-year-olds (12.5 hours a week). Eligibility is geographic, - based on lower layer super output areas. +2. **Flying Start**: funded childcare for 2- to 3-year-olds in some of + the most disadvantaged areas of Wales (12.5 hours a week, 39 weeks a + year), expanded in phases since 2022 with the aim of reaching all + 2-year-olds + ([Welsh Government guidance](https://www.gov.wales/flying-start-childcare-guidance-html)). + Eligibility is geographic, based on lower layer super output areas + chosen by each local authority. 3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant**, parallel to the English Childcare Grant. 4. **Welsh EMA**, parallel to the Scottish EMA. @@ -77,8 +98,12 @@ The audit identified four Welsh programmes: The audit identified four NI programmes: -1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: 12.5 hours a week in the - year before school. Universal. +1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: a funded place in the + immediate pre-school year for every child whose family wants one. + In December 2024, 60% of children had 12.5 hours a week and 40% had + 22.5 hours; the Department of Education is moving places to 22.5 + hours, starting with 77 settings from September 2025 + ([Department of Education](https://www.education-ni.gov.uk/news/education-minister-announces-first-step-major-expansion-pre-school-education-provision)). 2. **Sure Start**: younger children in disadvantaged areas, including a programme for 2-year-olds. 3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**. @@ -88,10 +113,11 @@ The audit identified four NI programmes: For each new programme: -- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov///` - capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. -- New variable(s) under `variables/gov///` gated on - the appropriate `country == ...` check. +- New parameter tree under the administering body (as #1643 did with + `parameters/gov/scottish_government//`) capturing the + income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. +- New variable(s) under the matching `variables/gov///` + folder, gated on the appropriate `country == ...` check. - A `_eligible` companion variable that the new programme variable composes with the rate parameter, the same pattern as the English entitlement trio. @@ -100,8 +126,10 @@ For each new programme: ### Structural items deferred to this work -The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that -become more pressing once the regional programmes land: +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also listed four structural findings. +#1703 has since split the `programs.yaml` umbrella row, and one (a +shared `in_england` helper) is minor; the other two become more pressing +once the regional programmes land: - `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate @@ -118,19 +146,25 @@ per-programme work. ## Data needs -Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather -than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy: - -- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level, - enough to gate eligibility. -- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start - and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority. -- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide - Scottish funded ELC caseloads. +Several regional programmes (the Scottish two-year-old strand, the +Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP) are funded hours rather than +cash payments, so their data side is comparatively easy: + +- **FRS** provides the household's `region`, from which the model + derives `country`; that is enough to gate eligibility. +- **Welsh Government** publishes Flying Start official statistics with + local authority breakdowns, and an annual Childcare Offer for Wales + report that gives the number of children using the Offer by local + authority. +- **Scottish Government Funded Early Learning and Childcare Statistics** + (the annual ELC census) provide funded ELC registrations, including + eligible two-year-olds. - **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads. -- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and NI childcare grants need the same - treatment as the English `childcare_grant`: calibration against - published award totals. +- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and Student Finance NI childcare + grants need published award totals to check the modelled amounts + against. The English `childcare_grant` has no calibration target yet: + the Student Loans Company targets in policyengine-uk-data cover + Parents' Learning Allowance and Adult Dependants' Grant only. The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level @@ -144,27 +178,36 @@ entitlements already enter `household_benefits` and `gov_spending`. splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring the English pattern for queryability. -- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the dataset being - built to replace the Enhanced FRS, assigns each household in England - and Wales to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility - by area becomes possible on that dataset once the Flying Start area - list is sourced. +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the default UK dataset + in the policyengine.py bundle since release 6.10.0 (21 October 2026), + places each household in its local-area build in one atomic area + (a 2021 Output Area in England and Wales, a 2022 Output Area in + Scotland, a 2021 Data Zone in Northern Ireland) and derives larger + geographies such as LSOAs from it. The national file carries no small + areas. Eligibility by area becomes possible on the local-area build + once the Flying Start LSOA list is sourced. - EMA ended in England but still runs in Scotland, Wales and Northern - Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` are reported amounts with - no formula. Should the devolved schemes be modelled under the existing - `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate regional schemes? + Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` (under + `variables/gov/dwp/`) are reported FRS amounts with no formula. Should + the devolved schemes sit alongside the England-only + `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` tree, or be separate schemes under each + administration? ## References - Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644), the full childcare coverage audit. - Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008), the original Scotland, Wales and NI gap report. -- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC. -- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). +- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC; [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703), per-programme `programs.yaml` rows. +- Existing England implementation (the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). - Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. -- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. +- Scottish eligible-2-year-old legislation: [Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s. 47(3)][cyp-47] and [SSI 2014/196][ssi-196-2014], as amended by [SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025]. +- SAAS, [University Childcare Fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare]. [issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644 [pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643 [wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents -[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made +[ssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents +[ssi-82-2025]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2025/82/made +[cyp-47]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2014/8/section/47 +[saas-childcare]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/files/311/saas-childcare-fund-guidance.pdf [scot-ema]: https://www.mygov.scot/ema