diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5d3cde9a71 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the regional childcare planning page (docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md) against current law, data and main: the Scottish two-year-old, SAAS, Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP descriptions, the Childcare Grant calibration claim and the Microcosm UK geography. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md index 225a5291e6..4a1efeb7f5 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md @@ -14,25 +14,30 @@ and the broader [#1644 audit][issue-1644]. ## What is modelled today -The current childcare coverage is captured in -[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (see the -[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows: +The current childcare coverage is recorded in +[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml), +where [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703) +split the old umbrella entry into per-programme rows after the +[#1644 audit][issue-1644]. Care to Learn and the Scottish funded ELC have +no row yet. Coverage works as follows: - **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (legacy, HMRC - administered, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see + administered, ended 5 April 2025, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)). - **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`): Universal Childcare Entitlement (15 hours for 3- and 4-year-olds), Extended Childcare Entitlement (working parents, now reaching down to children aged nine months), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (2-year-olds - in families on qualifying benefits or low incomes), Care to Learn, - Student Finance England Childcare Grant. + in families on qualifying benefits, or on Universal Credit or tax + credits with income below a limit), Care to Learn, Student Finance + England Childcare Grant. - **Scotland**: eligibility for the universal funded ELC for 3- and - 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, - including the statutory start-date rule for 3-year-olds) and its 1,140 - hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is attached - yet, so it does not reach household income. + 4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, with + the statutory start date for 3-year-olds taken as an input, + `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`) and its + 1,140 hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is + attached yet, so it does not reach household income. - **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled. ## Proposed scope by jurisdiction @@ -41,16 +46,25 @@ The current childcare coverage is captured in The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: -1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme - (vulnerable or low-income 2-year-olds under the - [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) - (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the - 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on UC, tax credits or other - qualifying benefits. -2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant, - Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students: - the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare - Grant. Income-tested. +1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme: + 2-year-olds who are looked after, under a kinship care order or with + an appointed guardian ([Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 + s. 47(3)][cyp-47]), or whose parent receives a qualifying benefit + under the [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified + Children) (Scotland) Order 2014][ssi-196-2014]. It would be modelled + the same way as the 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on those + conditions. The qualifying benefits include Universal Credit with + earned income of up to £850 an assessment period; Child Tax Credit + was removed from the list from 6 April 2025 ([SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025]). +2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) support for student + parents**: the Childcare Funds that universities and colleges pay out + (a Lone Parents' Childcare Grant of up to £1,215 a year, not + income-assessed, plus discretionary help assessed on need), the + closest Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare + Grant ([SAAS childcare fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare]); + and SAAS's income-assessed Lone Parents' Grant (up to £1,305). The + audit also listed SAAS's Dependants' Grant, but that supports adult + dependants rather than children. 3. **Support for young parents in further education**, the role Care to Learn plays in England. The [Education Maintenance Allowance][scot-ema] still runs in Scotland for 16- to 19-year-olds, applied for through @@ -61,14 +75,21 @@ The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps: The audit identified four Welsh programmes: -1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: 30 hours a week for working parents - of 3- and 4-year-olds (term time plus some holiday weeks). +1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: up to 30 hours a week of combined + nursery education (at least 10 hours) and childcare, for up to 48 + weeks a year, for 3- and 4-year-olds of working parents or parents in + further or higher education + ([gov.wales](https://www.gov.wales/get-30-hours-childcare-3-and-4-year-olds)). Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. -2. **Flying Start**: a universal offer in disadvantaged areas for - 2- to 3-year-olds (12.5 hours a week). Eligibility is geographic, - based on lower layer super output areas. +2. **Flying Start**: funded childcare for 2- to 3-year-olds in some of + the most disadvantaged areas of Wales (12.5 hours a week, 39 weeks a + year), expanded in phases since 2022 with the aim of reaching all + 2-year-olds + ([Welsh Government guidance](https://www.gov.wales/flying-start-childcare-guidance-html)). + Eligibility is geographic, based on lower layer super output areas + chosen by each local authority. 3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant**, parallel to the English Childcare Grant. 4. **Welsh EMA**, parallel to the Scottish EMA. @@ -77,8 +98,12 @@ The audit identified four Welsh programmes: The audit identified four NI programmes: -1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: 12.5 hours a week in the - year before school. Universal. +1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: a funded place in the + immediate pre-school year for every child whose family wants one. + In December 2024, 60% of children had 12.5 hours a week and 40% had + 22.5 hours; the Department of Education is moving places to 22.5 + hours, starting with 77 settings from September 2025 + ([Department of Education](https://www.education-ni.gov.uk/news/education-minister-announces-first-step-major-expansion-pre-school-education-provision)). 2. **Sure Start**: younger children in disadvantaged areas, including a programme for 2-year-olds. 3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**. @@ -88,10 +113,11 @@ The audit identified four NI programmes: For each new programme: -- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov///` - capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. -- New variable(s) under `variables/gov///` gated on - the appropriate `country == ...` check. +- New parameter tree under the administering body (as #1643 did with + `parameters/gov/scottish_government//`) capturing the + income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates. +- New variable(s) under the matching `variables/gov///` + folder, gated on the appropriate `country == ...` check. - A `_eligible` companion variable that the new programme variable composes with the rate parameter, the same pattern as the English entitlement trio. @@ -100,8 +126,10 @@ For each new programme: ### Structural items deferred to this work -The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that -become more pressing once the regional programmes land: +The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also listed four structural findings. +#1703 has since split the `programs.yaml` umbrella row, and one (a +shared `in_england` helper) is minor; the other two become more pressing +once the regional programmes land: - `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate @@ -118,19 +146,25 @@ per-programme work. ## Data needs -Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather -than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy: - -- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level, - enough to gate eligibility. -- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start - and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority. -- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide - Scottish funded ELC caseloads. +Several regional programmes (the Scottish two-year-old strand, the +Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP) are funded hours rather than +cash payments, so their data side is comparatively easy: + +- **FRS** provides the household's `region`, from which the model + derives `country`; that is enough to gate eligibility. +- **Welsh Government** publishes Flying Start official statistics with + local authority breakdowns, and an annual Childcare Offer for Wales + report that gives the number of children using the Offer by local + authority. +- **Scottish Government Funded Early Learning and Childcare Statistics** + (the annual ELC census) provide funded ELC registrations, including + eligible two-year-olds. - **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads. -- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and NI childcare grants need the same - treatment as the English `childcare_grant`: calibration against - published award totals. +- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and Student Finance NI childcare + grants need published award totals to check the modelled amounts + against. The English `childcare_grant` has no calibration target yet: + the Student Loans Company targets in policyengine-uk-data cover + Parents' Learning Allowance and Adult Dependants' Grant only. The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level @@ -144,27 +178,36 @@ entitlements already enter `household_benefits` and `gov_spending`. splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring the English pattern for queryability. -- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the dataset being - built to replace the Enhanced FRS, assigns each household in England - and Wales to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility - by area becomes possible on that dataset once the Flying Start area - list is sourced. +- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the default UK dataset + in the policyengine.py bundle since release 6.10.0 (21 October 2026), + places each household in its local-area build in one atomic area + (a 2021 Output Area in England and Wales, a 2022 Output Area in + Scotland, a 2021 Data Zone in Northern Ireland) and derives larger + geographies such as LSOAs from it. The national file carries no small + areas. Eligibility by area becomes possible on the local-area build + once the Flying Start LSOA list is sourced. - EMA ended in England but still runs in Scotland, Wales and Northern - Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` are reported amounts with - no formula. Should the devolved schemes be modelled under the existing - `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate regional schemes? + Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` (under + `variables/gov/dwp/`) are reported FRS amounts with no formula. Should + the devolved schemes sit alongside the England-only + `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` tree, or be separate schemes under each + administration? ## References - Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644), the full childcare coverage audit. - Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008), the original Scotland, Wales and NI gap report. -- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC. -- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). +- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC; [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703), per-programme `programs.yaml` rows. +- Existing England implementation (the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe). - Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act]. -- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014]. +- Scottish eligible-2-year-old legislation: [Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s. 47(3)][cyp-47] and [SSI 2014/196][ssi-196-2014], as amended by [SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025]. +- SAAS, [University Childcare Fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare]. [issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644 [pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643 [wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents -[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made +[ssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents +[ssi-82-2025]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2025/82/made +[cyp-47]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2014/8/section/47 +[saas-childcare]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/files/311/saas-childcare-fund-guidance.pdf [scot-ema]: https://www.mygov.scot/ema