From f0ef4c1fa90d9a67b4147cebf8ce27df71eb50d2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 11:29:01 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Add non-UK household benefit receipt planning doc (#842) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit #842 flagged that calibrating to DWP/HMRC outturn implicitly assumes all benefit expenditure lands on FRS households — it doesn't, because exported State Pension, care-home residents, EU-treaty Child Benefit residue, and admin leakage end up overweighting FRS-household aggregates. Persist the plan in-repo. The page proposes: - Phase 1: quantify the gap per programme using DWP "Benefits paid outside the UK" statistics, the F&E in the Benefit System release, and Stat-Xplore residence/tenure breakdowns; - Phase 2: subtract the out-of-scope share from policyengine-uk-data calibration targets via a new private_household_share field on programs.yaml rows; - Phase 3 (optional): keep an additive correction for headline-fiscal aggregates rather than synthesising overseas / institutional households (which would need strong unverifiable assumptions). Pure docs; the implementation lives mostly in policyengine-uk-data. --- changelog.d/842.md | 1 + .../non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 123 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 124 insertions(+) create mode 100644 changelog.d/842.md create mode 100644 docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md diff --git a/changelog.d/842.md b/changelog.d/842.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5620e9b38c --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/842.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a planning docs page at `docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md` covering benefit expenditure paid outside UK private households (exported State Pension, care-home residents, EU-treaty Child Benefit residue, administrative leakage) and a three-phase proposal to subtract the out-of-scope share from `policyengine-uk-data` calibration targets rather than synthesise the out-of-scope households. diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..db69803d74 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +# Benefit expenditure paid outside UK private households (planned) + +```{note} +**Planning page.** PolicyEngine UK calibrates household-level benefit +aggregates to **DWP/HMRC outturn totals** for the UK as a whole. +Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households** — it +goes to people living abroad (exported pensions), people in +institutional accommodation outside the FRS sampling frame (care homes, +hostels), and a small administrative-leakage residual. This page +captures the proposed treatment, tracked under +[#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). +``` + +## Why this matters + +When we calibrate FRS-derived household weights so that simulated +`state_pension` matches OBR's £140bn total (say), we are implicitly +assuming every pound of OBR-reported expenditure lands on an FRS +household. It doesn't: + +- **Exported State Pension** — UK pensioners living overseas receive + basic / new State Pension at the rate they accrued. ~£5bn/yr by recent + DWP statistics, paid to people the FRS doesn't sample. +- **Disability Living Allowance / PIP** abroad — limited cases under + reciprocal agreements (EU/EFTA + a handful of others). +- **Institutional residents** — care-home residents receive most + benefits but the FRS doesn't sample care homes. Their entitlements + feed into the DWP outturn but not into PolicyEngine's `state_pension` + totals. +- **Administrative leakage** — fraud / error / advance payments that + appear in DWP cashflow but never reach an entitled person. + +The current calibration absorbs all of the above into FRS-household +benefits, **inflating** PolicyEngine's per-household estimates by +whatever share of outturn actually lives outside UK private +households. + +## Scope + +### Phase 1 — quantify the gap by programme + +For each benefit programme tracked in `programs.yaml`, identify the +share of outturn that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC +publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: + +| Programme | UK private households | Overseas | Institutional | Admin / error | +|-----------|----------------------|----------|---------------|---------------| +| State Pension | published | DWP overseas tables | -- | -- | +| Pension Credit | published | small | minimal | minor | +| Universal Credit | published | minimal | small | F&E published | +| Housing Benefit | published | -- | care-home component | F&E published | +| Child Benefit | published | EU-treaty residue | -- | -- | +| Disability Living Allowance / PIP | published | reciprocal residue | -- | -- | +| Attendance Allowance | published | -- | care-home residue | -- | +| Winter Fuel Payment | published | overseas eligible cohort | -- | -- | + +Sources: DWP *Benefits paid outside the United Kingdom* statistics, the +DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual release, and +programme-specific outturn breakdowns. + +### Phase 2 — subtract from calibration targets + +Once the gap is quantified per programme, the **calibration target** in +`policyengine-uk-data` should be the **UK-private-household component** +of outturn, not the full outturn. Concretely: + +- Add a column `private_household_share` (0–1) to each programme's + calibration target row, default 1.0 with explicit per-programme + overrides. +- Update the reweighting loss function to compare simulated household + aggregates against `outturn × private_household_share` rather than + raw outturn. + +This avoids the overweighting bias without trying to synthesise +out-of-scope households. + +### Phase 3 — explicit out-of-scope synthesis (optional) + +For headline aggregates that need to match the **full** outturn (e.g. +fiscal cost of a reform), maintain an out-of-scope additive correction +per programme rather than synthesising fake households. This is +preferable because: + +- Distributional analyses already get the right answer at Phase 2 (UK + private households are correctly weighted to their own outturn). +- Synthesising overseas / institutional households would require strong + assumptions about their characteristics that aren't validated against + any micro-data source. + +The additive correction lives in `policyengine-uk-data` and surfaces in +PolicyEngine UK as an explicit non-household revenue / spending line. + +## Implementation outline + +This is primarily a **data-side** change in `policyengine-uk-data`. The +in-repo changes are minor: + +- A new `private_household_share` field on each row of + [`programs.yaml`](../../../policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (default 1.0 + for everything but State Pension, AA, and a handful of others). +- A documentation hook from the calibrated programme variables back to + this page so the modelling assumption is discoverable. + +## Open questions + +- Should the `private_household_share` be year-varying (e.g. overseas + State Pension share rose post-EU exit) or held flat? +- For Universal Credit, where the FRS *does* sample some + institutionalised people (in supported accommodation), what's the + correct private-household-share value — strictly < 1, or 1 minus a + smaller residual? +- For the household-calculator (single-household) interface, the + private-household-share correction shouldn't apply — the user + represents their own household. Confirm the correction is only on the + microsim weighted aggregates. + +## References + +- DWP, [Benefits paid outside the United Kingdom statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefits-paid-outside-the-united-kingdom) — overseas residue by programme. +- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system) — administrative leakage estimates. +- DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/) — programme-specific caseload breakdowns including residence and tenure splits. +- HMRC, [Tax credits and Child Benefit statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-tax-credits-statistics) — EU-treaty Child Benefit residue. +- Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment). From 95bd1c7b649283186f90e57f69f1086b40c95a7a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2026 15:54:30 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] Refresh the planning page against the current code and type its changelog fragment Checked every variable, parameter, path and link against main in October 2026, updated the data pipeline references to Microcosm UK, and renamed the changelog fragment to a Towncrier type. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/842.added.md | 1 + changelog.d/842.md | 1 - .../non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 88 ++++++++++--------- 3 files changed, 47 insertions(+), 43 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/842.added.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/842.md diff --git a/changelog.d/842.added.md b/changelog.d/842.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..851e05af1f --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/842.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a planning docs page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`) on benefit spending that does not reach UK private households (payments abroad, institutions, fraud and error) and how calibration targets should exclude it. diff --git a/changelog.d/842.md b/changelog.d/842.md deleted file mode 100644 index 5620e9b38c..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/842.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -- Add a planning docs page at `docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md` covering benefit expenditure paid outside UK private households (exported State Pension, care-home residents, EU-treaty Child Benefit residue, administrative leakage) and a three-phase proposal to subtract the out-of-scope share from `policyengine-uk-data` calibration targets rather than synthesise the out-of-scope households. diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md index db69803d74..f56295f4b5 100644 --- a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -1,26 +1,29 @@ # Benefit expenditure paid outside UK private households (planned) ```{note} -**Planning page.** PolicyEngine UK calibrates household-level benefit -aggregates to **DWP/HMRC outturn totals** for the UK as a whole. +**Planning page.** The data behind PolicyEngine UK is calibrated so that +household benefit totals match published **DWP/HMRC/OBR totals**. Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households** — it goes to people living abroad (exported pensions), people in institutional accommodation outside the FRS sampling frame (care homes, hostels), and a small administrative-leakage residual. This page -captures the proposed treatment, tracked under -[#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). +sets out the proposed treatment, tracked in +[#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842) (still +open, October 2026). Calibration now happens in +[Microcosm UK](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), which replaced +the Enhanced FRS build, so most of the work below belongs there. ``` ## Why this matters -When we calibrate FRS-derived household weights so that simulated -`state_pension` matches OBR's £140bn total (say), we are implicitly -assuming every pound of OBR-reported expenditure lands on an FRS -household. It doesn't: +Calibrating FRS household weights so that simulated `state_pension` +matches a national spending total assumes every pound of that total lands +on a household the FRS samples. It doesn't: -- **Exported State Pension** — UK pensioners living overseas receive - basic / new State Pension at the rate they accrued. ~£5bn/yr by recent - DWP statistics, paid to people the FRS doesn't sample. +- **State Pension paid abroad** — pensioners living overseas receive the + State Pension they built up. DWP's benefit expenditure tables report + the amount paid to recipients abroad, and Stat-Xplore gives the + caseload by country. None of these people are in the FRS. - **Disability Living Allowance / PIP** abroad — limited cases under reciprocal agreements (EU/EFTA + a handful of others). - **Institutional residents** — care-home residents receive most @@ -30,17 +33,23 @@ household. It doesn't: - **Administrative leakage** — fraud / error / advance payments that appear in DWP cashflow but never reach an entitled person. -The current calibration absorbs all of the above into FRS-household -benefits, **inflating** PolicyEngine's per-household estimates by -whatever share of outturn actually lives outside UK private -households. +Where a target includes these groups, calibration pushes their spending +onto FRS households and **overstates** what UK private households receive. + +**Already done for State Pension.** Microcosm no longer fits the OBR State +Pension forecast, which counts Great Britain plus pensioners paid abroad and +leaves out Northern Ireland. State Pension is now bound to the resident +figures from DWP Stat-Xplore and the Northern Ireland Department for +Communities. That ruling (R4) is recorded under +[microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069). +The same question is open for other programmes. ## Scope ### Phase 1 — quantify the gap by programme -For each benefit programme tracked in `programs.yaml`, identify the -share of outturn that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC +For each benefit programme the calibration targets, identify the share +of the published total that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: | Programme | UK private households | Overseas | Institutional | Admin / error | @@ -54,22 +63,18 @@ publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: | Attendance Allowance | published | -- | care-home residue | -- | | Winter Fuel Payment | published | overseas eligible cohort | -- | -- | -Sources: DWP *Benefits paid outside the United Kingdom* statistics, the -DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual release, and -programme-specific outturn breakdowns. +Sources: DWP *Benefit expenditure and caseload tables* and Stat-Xplore +(payments abroad), the DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual +release, and programme-specific breakdowns. ### Phase 2 — subtract from calibration targets -Once the gap is quantified per programme, the **calibration target** in -`policyengine-uk-data` should be the **UK-private-household component** -of outturn, not the full outturn. Concretely: - -- Add a column `private_household_share` (0–1) to each programme's - calibration target row, default 1.0 with explicit per-programme - overrides. -- Update the reweighting loss function to compare simulated household - aggregates against `outturn × private_household_share` rather than - raw outturn. +Once the gap is quantified per programme, each **calibration target** +should be the **UK-private-household part** of the total, not the full +total. Microcosm's State Pension change does this by binding a resident +series instead. Where no resident series exists, the target can carry an +explicit private-household share (0–1, default 1) with a cited source for +each override. This avoids the overweighting bias without trying to synthesise out-of-scope households. @@ -87,19 +92,18 @@ preferable because: assumptions about their characteristics that aren't validated against any micro-data source. -The additive correction lives in `policyengine-uk-data` and surfaces in -PolicyEngine UK as an explicit non-household revenue / spending line. +The additive correction would live in the data pipeline and appear in +PolicyEngine UK as an explicit non-household spending line. ## Implementation outline -This is primarily a **data-side** change in `policyengine-uk-data`. The -in-repo changes are minor: +This is mainly a **data-side** change in Microcosm UK's target +register. (`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml` is metadata on model coverage, +not calibration targets, so it is not the place for these shares.) The +changes in this repo are small: -- A new `private_household_share` field on each row of - [`programs.yaml`](../../../policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (default 1.0 - for everything but State Pension, AA, and a handful of others). -- A documentation hook from the calibrated programme variables back to - this page so the modelling assumption is discoverable. +- a non-household spending line for the Phase 3 correction, if adopted; +- documentation linking the affected benefit variables to this page. ## Open questions @@ -116,8 +120,8 @@ in-repo changes are minor: ## References -- DWP, [Benefits paid outside the United Kingdom statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefits-paid-outside-the-united-kingdom) — overseas residue by programme. +- DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables) — spending by benefit, including payments abroad. - DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system) — administrative leakage estimates. -- DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/) — programme-specific caseload breakdowns including residence and tenure splits. +- DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/) — caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. - HMRC, [Tax credits and Child Benefit statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-tax-credits-statistics) — EU-treaty Child Benefit residue. -- Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment). +- Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (State Pension on resident figures). From cc2e86bea95ba37752496053b7477052ceeb2448 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 11:06:11 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] Correct the non-UK benefit receipt plan against Microcosm The State Pension change is cited to microcosm#1084 (merged 2 October 2026) under microcosm#1069, replacing an unverifiable "ruling R4" and an unsourced description of the OBR series. Dropped the unsourced claim that Microcosm replaced the Enhanced FRS build, renamed Phase 3 to match its content (a correction, not synthesis), removed em dashes, and dropped the extra bullet from the changelog fragment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/842.added.md | 2 +- .../non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 53 ++++++++++--------- 2 files changed, 29 insertions(+), 26 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/842.added.md b/changelog.d/842.added.md index 851e05af1f..a6930079a4 100644 --- a/changelog.d/842.added.md +++ b/changelog.d/842.added.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -- Add a planning docs page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`) on benefit spending that does not reach UK private households (payments abroad, institutions, fraud and error) and how calibration targets should exclude it. +Add a planning docs page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`) on benefit spending that does not reach UK private households (payments abroad, institutions, fraud and error) and how calibration targets should exclude it. diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md index f56295f4b5..928177417f 100644 --- a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -3,15 +3,15 @@ ```{note} **Planning page.** The data behind PolicyEngine UK is calibrated so that household benefit totals match published **DWP/HMRC/OBR totals**. -Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households** — it +Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households**. It goes to people living abroad (exported pensions), people in institutional accommodation outside the FRS sampling frame (care homes, hostels), and a small administrative-leakage residual. This page sets out the proposed treatment, tracked in [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842) (still -open, October 2026). Calibration now happens in -[Microcosm UK](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), which replaced -the Enhanced FRS build, so most of the work below belongs there. +open, October 2026). Calibration targets are now set in +[Microcosm UK](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), so most of the +work below belongs there. ``` ## Why this matters @@ -20,33 +20,36 @@ Calibrating FRS household weights so that simulated `state_pension` matches a national spending total assumes every pound of that total lands on a household the FRS samples. It doesn't: -- **State Pension paid abroad** — pensioners living overseas receive the +- **State Pension paid abroad**: pensioners living overseas receive the State Pension they built up. DWP's benefit expenditure tables report the amount paid to recipients abroad, and Stat-Xplore gives the caseload by country. None of these people are in the FRS. -- **Disability Living Allowance / PIP** abroad — limited cases under - reciprocal agreements (EU/EFTA + a handful of others). -- **Institutional residents** — care-home residents receive most +- **Disability Living Allowance and PIP paid abroad**: limited cases + under reciprocal agreements (EU and EFTA countries and a handful of + others). +- **Institutional residents**: care-home residents receive most benefits but the FRS doesn't sample care homes. Their entitlements feed into the DWP outturn but not into PolicyEngine's `state_pension` totals. -- **Administrative leakage** — fraud / error / advance payments that +- **Administrative leakage**: fraud, error and advance payments that appear in DWP cashflow but never reach an entitled person. Where a target includes these groups, calibration pushes their spending onto FRS households and **overstates** what UK private households receive. -**Already done for State Pension.** Microcosm no longer fits the OBR State -Pension forecast, which counts Great Britain plus pensioners paid abroad and -leaves out Northern Ireland. State Pension is now bound to the resident -figures from DWP Stat-Xplore and the Northern Ireland Department for -Communities. That ruling (R4) is recorded under -[microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069). -The same question is open for other programmes. +**Already done for State Pension.** Microcosm no longer binds the OBR State +Pension line. State Pension is now bound to resident figures from DWP +Stat-Xplore (Great Britain) and the Northern Ireland Department for +Communities, and the OBR line and DWP's "paid outside UK" line are kept as +diagnostics. The plan is +[microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) and +the change landed in +[microcosm#1084](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/1084) +(merged 2 October 2026). The same question is open for other programmes. ## Scope -### Phase 1 — quantify the gap by programme +### Phase 1: quantify the gap by programme For each benefit programme the calibration targets, identify the share of the published total that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC @@ -67,7 +70,7 @@ Sources: DWP *Benefit expenditure and caseload tables* and Stat-Xplore (payments abroad), the DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual release, and programme-specific breakdowns. -### Phase 2 — subtract from calibration targets +### Phase 2: subtract from calibration targets Once the gap is quantified per programme, each **calibration target** should be the **UK-private-household part** of the total, not the full @@ -79,7 +82,7 @@ each override. This avoids the overweighting bias without trying to synthesise out-of-scope households. -### Phase 3 — explicit out-of-scope synthesis (optional) +### Phase 3: explicit out-of-scope correction (optional) For headline aggregates that need to match the **full** outturn (e.g. fiscal cost of a reform), maintain an out-of-scope additive correction @@ -111,17 +114,17 @@ changes in this repo are small: State Pension share rose post-EU exit) or held flat? - For Universal Credit, where the FRS *does* sample some institutionalised people (in supported accommodation), what's the - correct private-household-share value — strictly < 1, or 1 minus a + correct private-household-share value: strictly < 1, or 1 minus a smaller residual? - For the household-calculator (single-household) interface, the - private-household-share correction shouldn't apply — the user + private-household-share correction shouldn't apply, because the user represents their own household. Confirm the correction is only on the microsim weighted aggregates. ## References -- DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables) — spending by benefit, including payments abroad. -- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system) — administrative leakage estimates. -- DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/) — caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. -- HMRC, [Tax credits and Child Benefit statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-tax-credits-statistics) — EU-treaty Child Benefit residue. +- DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables): spending by benefit, including payments abroad. +- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): administrative leakage estimates. +- DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/): caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. +- HMRC, [Tax credits and Child Benefit statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-tax-credits-statistics): EU-treaty Child Benefit residue. - Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (State Pension on resident figures). From 88ba0b7a65c620bf26d15e37712a587a854c7080 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 02:09:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] Correct the non-UK benefit receipt plan against DWP sources and the law - Fraud and error overpayments are paid to claimants, so they are not a leakage outside private households; UC advances are not benefit payments (DWP fraud and error FYE 2026). - Microcosm's resident State Pension series (microcosm#1084) removes pensions paid abroad but still includes care-home residents; #1069 now tracks follow-ups. The Enhanced FRS, which this repo's tests run on, keeps its own targets, including the OBR State Pension line. - Disability benefits abroad: DLA care, PIP daily living, AA and Carer's Allowance in the EEA or Switzerland under the Withdrawal Agreement (GOV.UK); no mobility parts. - Table: no HB in a care home (HB Regs 2006 reg. 9(1)(k), (4)); AA has an outside-UK line; Winter Fuel Payment needs residence since winter 2025-26 (SI 2025/969 reg. 2); State Pension, PC, DLA/PIP and AA have published fraud and error rates; the first column is the published total. - The overseas share of State Pension spending fell from 4.3% (2019-20) to 3.9% (2024-25) in DWP's Spring Forecast 2026 outturn tables. - The HMRC reference was a tax credits collection with no Child Benefit data; replaced with GOV.UK's Child Benefit abroad guidance. - Replaced the released .added fragment with a .changed fragment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...enefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md | 1 + changelog.d/842.added.md | 1 - .../non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 88 +++++++++++-------- 3 files changed, 53 insertions(+), 37 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/842.added.md diff --git a/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..2a0e1c60a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the non-UK benefit receipt planning page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`): Microcosm UK's resident State Pension series removes pensions paid abroad but still includes care-home residents, the Enhanced FRS keeps its own targets, fraud and error overpayments reach households, Winter Fuel Payment has not been paid abroad since winter 2025-26, there is no Housing Benefit in a care home, Attendance Allowance is paid abroad, and the overseas share of State Pension spending has fallen since 2019-20. diff --git a/changelog.d/842.added.md b/changelog.d/842.added.md deleted file mode 100644 index a6930079a4..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/842.added.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -Add a planning docs page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`) on benefit spending that does not reach UK private households (payments abroad, institutions, fraud and error) and how calibration targets should exclude it. diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md index 928177417f..df9eb95b1d 100644 --- a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -4,14 +4,18 @@ **Planning page.** The data behind PolicyEngine UK is calibrated so that household benefit totals match published **DWP/HMRC/OBR totals**. Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households**. It -goes to people living abroad (exported pensions), people in +goes to people living abroad (exported pensions) and to people in institutional accommodation outside the FRS sampling frame (care homes, -hostels), and a small administrative-leakage residual. This page +hostels). A further part is fraud and error overpayments, which claimants +receive but aren't entitled to. This page sets out the proposed treatment, tracked in [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842) (still -open, October 2026). Calibration targets are now set in +open, October 2026). Calibration targets for Microcosm UK, the dataset in +policyengine.py's certified UK bundle, are set in [Microcosm UK](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), so most of the -work below belongs there. +work below belongs there. policyengine-uk-data's Enhanced FRS, which this +repository's tests still run on, keeps its own target set, which still +includes the OBR State Pension line. ``` ## Why this matters @@ -24,28 +28,35 @@ on a household the FRS samples. It doesn't: State Pension they built up. DWP's benefit expenditure tables report the amount paid to recipients abroad, and Stat-Xplore gives the caseload by country. None of these people are in the FRS. -- **Disability Living Allowance and PIP paid abroad**: limited cases - under reciprocal agreements (EU and EFTA countries and a handful of - others). -- **Institutional residents**: care-home residents receive most - benefits but the FRS doesn't sample care homes. Their entitlements +- **Disability benefits paid abroad**: limited cases. The DLA care + component, the PIP daily living part, Attendance Allowance and Carer's + Allowance can be paid to people living in an EEA country or Switzerland + who are covered by the Withdrawal Agreement; the mobility parts can't be + paid abroad. DWP's tables report each benefit's spending outside the UK. +- **Institutional residents**: care-home residents keep their State + Pension and can get some other benefits (Pension Credit, or Attendance + Allowance if they pay for their own care), but the FRS doesn't sample + care homes. Their entitlements feed into the DWP outturn but not into PolicyEngine's `state_pension` totals. -- **Administrative leakage**: fraud, error and advance payments that - appear in DWP cashflow but never reach an entitled person. +- **Fraud and error**: overpayments that DWP counts as benefit spending + but that go beyond what claimants are entitled to (3.2% of benefit + spending in DWP's FYE 2026 estimates). They reach households, so they + matter where the model simulates entitlement rather than receipt. Where a target includes these groups, calibration pushes their spending onto FRS households and **overstates** what UK private households receive. -**Already done for State Pension.** Microcosm no longer binds the OBR State +**Already done for State Pension paid abroad.** Microcosm no longer binds the OBR State Pension line. State Pension is now bound to resident figures from DWP Stat-Xplore (Great Britain) and the Northern Ireland Department for Communities, and the OBR line and DWP's "paid outside UK" line are kept as -diagnostics. The plan is -[microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) and -the change landed in +diagnostics. The plan began as +[microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069), which +now tracks the open follow-ups, and the change landed in [microcosm#1084](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/1084) -(merged 2 October 2026). The same question is open for other programmes. +(merged 2 October 2026). The resident series still includes care-home +residents. The same question is open for other programmes. ## Scope @@ -55,27 +66,32 @@ For each benefit programme the calibration targets, identify the share of the published total that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: -| Programme | UK private households | Overseas | Institutional | Admin / error | -|-----------|----------------------|----------|---------------|---------------| -| State Pension | published | DWP overseas tables | -- | -- | -| Pension Credit | published | small | minimal | minor | +| Programme | Published total | Overseas | Institutional | Fraud and error | +|-----------|-----------------|----------|---------------|-----------------| +| State Pension | published | DWP "paid outside UK" line | care-home residents | F&E published | +| Pension Credit | published | small (Great Britain residence required) | care-home residents (unquantified) | F&E published | | Universal Credit | published | minimal | small | F&E published | -| Housing Benefit | published | -- | care-home component | F&E published | -| Child Benefit | published | EU-treaty residue | -- | -- | -| Disability Living Allowance / PIP | published | reciprocal residue | -- | -- | -| Attendance Allowance | published | -- | care-home residue | -- | -| Winter Fuel Payment | published | overseas eligible cohort | -- | -- | +| Housing Benefit | published | -- | hostels (no Housing Benefit in a care home) | F&E published | +| Child Benefit | published | EEA, Switzerland and agreement-country residue | -- | -- | +| Disability Living Allowance / PIP | published | DWP "outside UK" lines | care-home residue (self-funders; PIP mobility) | F&E published | +| Attendance Allowance | published | DWP "outside UK" line | care-home residue (self-funders) | F&E published | +| Winter Fuel Payment | published | none since winter 2025-26 (claimants must usually live in England, Wales or Northern Ireland) | care-home residents | -- | Sources: DWP *Benefit expenditure and caseload tables* and Stat-Xplore (payments abroad), the DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual -release, and programme-specific breakdowns. +release, programme-specific breakdowns, and the rules on care homes +([Housing Benefit Regulations 2006 reg. 9(1)(k) and (4)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/213/regulation/9); +[PIP Regulations 2013 reg. 28](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/377/regulation/28)) +and on Winter Fuel Payment residence +([SI 2025/969 reg. 2](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/969/regulation/2)). ### Phase 2: subtract from calibration targets Once the gap is quantified per programme, each **calibration target** should be the **UK-private-household part** of the total, not the full -total. Microcosm's State Pension change does this by binding a resident -series instead. Where no resident series exists, the target can carry an +total. Microcosm's State Pension change does this for pensions paid abroad +by binding a resident series instead; that series still includes care-home +residents. Where no resident series exists, the target can carry an explicit private-household share (0–1, default 1) with a cited source for each override. @@ -110,12 +126,12 @@ changes in this repo are small: ## Open questions -- Should the `private_household_share` be year-varying (e.g. overseas - State Pension share rose post-EU exit) or held flat? -- For Universal Credit, where the FRS *does* sample some - institutionalised people (in supported accommodation), what's the - correct private-household-share value: strictly < 1, or 1 minus a - smaller residual? +- Should the `private_household_share` be year-varying (e.g. the overseas + share of State Pension spending was 4.3% in 2019-20 and 3.9% in 2024-25 in + DWP's outturn tables) or held flat? +- For Universal Credit, if the FRS samples some people in supported + accommodation, what's the correct private-household-share value: + strictly < 1, or 1 minus a smaller residual? - For the household-calculator (single-household) interface, the private-household-share correction shouldn't apply, because the user represents their own household. Confirm the correction is only on the @@ -126,5 +142,5 @@ changes in this repo are small: - DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables): spending by benefit, including payments abroad. - DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): administrative leakage estimates. - DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/): caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. -- HMRC, [Tax credits and Child Benefit statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-tax-credits-statistics): EU-treaty Child Benefit residue. -- Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (State Pension on resident figures). +- GOV.UK, [Child Benefit if you leave the UK](https://www.gov.uk/child-benefit-abroad): when Child Benefit is paid for families abroad (EEA, Switzerland and social security agreement countries). +- Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (UK pensions follow-ups after #1084). From 7ff49219860b78769f6f5986b7011f54258bffe8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 03:12:24 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 5/6] Separate fraud and error and fix four table cells after review From the independent review of the corrections: - Fraud and error overpayments reach households, so they now sit in their own paragraph instead of the list of spending that misses households (3.2% overpaid and 0.4% underpaid, DWP FYE 2026). - Child Benefit has published error and fraud estimates (HMRC annual report and accounts; 1.6% overpaid in 2023-24 per the C&AG). - Housing Benefit doesn't pay for a care-home place (HB Regs 2006 and the pension-age regs, reg. 9(1)(k) and (4)), rather than "no HB in a care home"; care-home residents keep both mobility parts (DLA Regs 1991 reg. 9; PIP Regs 2013 reg. 28). - Winter Fuel Payment residence in Northern Ireland is SR 2025/142 reg. 2. - Carer's Allowance is a carer benefit; the F&E reference no longer says "administrative leakage"; the Enhanced FRS is what the microsimulation test jobs and aggregate-impact report run on. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...enefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md | 2 +- .../non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 50 +++++++++++-------- 2 files changed, 30 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md index 2a0e1c60a5..8deadd7c42 100644 --- a/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md +++ b/changelog.d/842-non-uk-benefit-receipt-page-corrections.changed.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -Corrected the non-UK benefit receipt planning page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`): Microcosm UK's resident State Pension series removes pensions paid abroad but still includes care-home residents, the Enhanced FRS keeps its own targets, fraud and error overpayments reach households, Winter Fuel Payment has not been paid abroad since winter 2025-26, there is no Housing Benefit in a care home, Attendance Allowance is paid abroad, and the overseas share of State Pension spending has fallen since 2019-20. +Corrected the non-UK benefit receipt planning page (`docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md`): Microcosm UK's resident State Pension series removes pensions paid abroad but still includes care-home residents, the Enhanced FRS keeps its own targets, fraud and error overpayments reach households, so they are treated separately, Winter Fuel Payment has not been paid abroad since winter 2025-26, Housing Benefit doesn't pay for a care-home place, Attendance Allowance can be paid abroad in limited cases, and the overseas share of State Pension spending has fallen since 2019-20. diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md index df9eb95b1d..3e58435d23 100644 --- a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -6,16 +6,17 @@ household benefit totals match published **DWP/HMRC/OBR totals**. Some of that outturn doesn't go to **UK private households**. It goes to people living abroad (exported pensions) and to people in institutional accommodation outside the FRS sampling frame (care homes, -hostels). A further part is fraud and error overpayments, which claimants -receive but aren't entitled to. This page +hostels). Fraud and error overpayments are a separate issue: claimants +receive them but aren't entitled to them. This page sets out the proposed treatment, tracked in [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842) (still -open, October 2026). Calibration targets for Microcosm UK, the dataset in -policyengine.py's certified UK bundle, are set in -[Microcosm UK](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), so most of the -work below belongs there. policyengine-uk-data's Enhanced FRS, which this -repository's tests still run on, keeps its own target set, which still -includes the OBR State Pension line. +open, October 2026). Microcosm UK, the dataset in policyengine.py's +certified UK bundle, sets its calibration targets in +[Microcosm](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm), so most of the work +below belongs there. policyengine-uk-data's Enhanced FRS, which this +repository's microsimulation test jobs and aggregate-impact report still run +on, keeps its own target set, which still includes the OBR State Pension +line. ``` ## Why this matters @@ -28,7 +29,7 @@ on a household the FRS samples. It doesn't: State Pension they built up. DWP's benefit expenditure tables report the amount paid to recipients abroad, and Stat-Xplore gives the caseload by country. None of these people are in the FRS. -- **Disability benefits paid abroad**: limited cases. The DLA care +- **Disability and carer benefits paid abroad**: limited cases. The DLA care component, the PIP daily living part, Attendance Allowance and Carer's Allowance can be paid to people living in an EEA country or Switzerland who are covered by the Withdrawal Agreement; the mobility parts can't be @@ -39,14 +40,16 @@ on a household the FRS samples. It doesn't: care homes. Their entitlements feed into the DWP outturn but not into PolicyEngine's `state_pension` totals. -- **Fraud and error**: overpayments that DWP counts as benefit spending - but that go beyond what claimants are entitled to (3.2% of benefit - spending in DWP's FYE 2026 estimates). They reach households, so they - matter where the model simulates entitlement rather than receipt. Where a target includes these groups, calibration pushes their spending onto FRS households and **overstates** what UK private households receive. +**Fraud and error** is a different case. DWP counts overpayments as benefit +spending although they go beyond what claimants are entitled to: 3.2% of +benefit spending in its FYE 2026 estimates, against 0.4% underpaid. That +money does reach households, so it doesn't overstate what they receive, but +it matters where the model simulates entitlement rather than receipt. + **Already done for State Pension paid abroad.** Microcosm no longer binds the OBR State Pension line. State Pension is now bound to resident figures from DWP Stat-Xplore (Great Britain) and the Northern Ireland Department for @@ -71,19 +74,24 @@ publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: | State Pension | published | DWP "paid outside UK" line | care-home residents | F&E published | | Pension Credit | published | small (Great Britain residence required) | care-home residents (unquantified) | F&E published | | Universal Credit | published | minimal | small | F&E published | -| Housing Benefit | published | -- | hostels (no Housing Benefit in a care home) | F&E published | -| Child Benefit | published | EEA, Switzerland and agreement-country residue | -- | -- | -| Disability Living Allowance / PIP | published | DWP "outside UK" lines | care-home residue (self-funders; PIP mobility) | F&E published | +| Housing Benefit | published | -- | hostels (Housing Benefit doesn't pay for a care-home place) | F&E published | +| Child Benefit | published | EEA, Switzerland and agreement-country residue | -- | F&E published (HMRC annual report and accounts) | +| Disability Living Allowance / PIP | published | DWP "outside UK" lines | care-home residue (self-funders; both mobility parts) | F&E published | | Attendance Allowance | published | DWP "outside UK" line | care-home residue (self-funders) | F&E published | -| Winter Fuel Payment | published | none since winter 2025-26 (claimants must usually live in England, Wales or Northern Ireland) | care-home residents | -- | +| Winter Fuel Payment | published | none since winter 2025-26 (recipients must be ordinarily resident in England, Wales or Northern Ireland) | care-home residents | -- | Sources: DWP *Benefit expenditure and caseload tables* and Stat-Xplore (payments abroad), the DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual release, programme-specific breakdowns, and the rules on care homes -([Housing Benefit Regulations 2006 reg. 9(1)(k) and (4)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/213/regulation/9); -[PIP Regulations 2013 reg. 28](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/377/regulation/28)) +([Housing Benefit Regulations 2006 reg. 9(1)(k) and (4)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/213/regulation/9) +and the [pension-age equivalent](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/214/regulation/9); +[PIP Regulations 2013 reg. 28](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/377/regulation/28); +[DLA Regulations 1991 reg. 9](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1991/2890/regulation/9)) and on Winter Fuel Payment residence -([SI 2025/969 reg. 2](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/969/regulation/2)). +([SI 2025/969 reg. 2](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/969/regulation/2) +for England and Wales; +[SR 2025/142 reg. 2](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2025/142/regulation/2) +for Northern Ireland). ### Phase 2: subtract from calibration targets @@ -140,7 +148,7 @@ changes in this repo are small: ## References - DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables): spending by benefit, including payments abroad. -- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): administrative leakage estimates. +- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): estimates of overpayments and underpayments from fraud and error. - DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/): caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. - GOV.UK, [Child Benefit if you leave the UK](https://www.gov.uk/child-benefit-abroad): when Child Benefit is paid for families abroad (EEA, Switzerland and social security agreement countries). - Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (UK pensions follow-ups after #1084). From 35a658ee328d6e8730b2e34da98b4009fc2a68b5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 03:48:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] Keep the fraud and error column out of the Phase 1 gap Second-round review: the Phase 1 table's fraud and error column is recorded separately, since that money reaches households; DWP's underpayments are official error only (FYE 2026 release); the Sources paragraph now names HMRC's annual report for Child Benefit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md | 13 +++++++++---- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md index 3e58435d23..148ff5a56a 100644 --- a/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/assumptions/non-uk-benefit-receipt-plan.md @@ -46,7 +46,8 @@ onto FRS households and **overstates** what UK private households receive. **Fraud and error** is a different case. DWP counts overpayments as benefit spending although they go beyond what claimants are entitled to: 3.2% of -benefit spending in its FYE 2026 estimates, against 0.4% underpaid. That +benefit spending in its FYE 2026 estimates, against 0.4% underpaid through +official error. That money does reach households, so it doesn't overstate what they receive, but it matters where the model simulates entitlement rather than receipt. @@ -67,7 +68,9 @@ residents. The same question is open for other programmes. For each benefit programme the calibration targets, identify the share of the published total that goes outside UK private households. DWP and HMRC -publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: +publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table. The fraud and error +column is recorded separately: that money reaches households, so it isn't +part of the gap. | Programme | Published total | Overseas | Institutional | Fraud and error | |-----------|-----------------|----------|---------------|-----------------| @@ -82,7 +85,8 @@ publish enough data to assemble a first-pass table: Sources: DWP *Benefit expenditure and caseload tables* and Stat-Xplore (payments abroad), the DWP *Fraud and Error in the Benefit System* annual -release, programme-specific breakdowns, and the rules on care homes +release, HMRC's annual report and accounts (Child Benefit fraud and error), +programme-specific breakdowns, and the rules on care homes ([Housing Benefit Regulations 2006 reg. 9(1)(k) and (4)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/213/regulation/9) and the [pension-age equivalent](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/214/regulation/9); [PIP Regulations 2013 reg. 28](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/377/regulation/28); @@ -148,7 +152,8 @@ changes in this repo are small: ## References - DWP, [Benefit expenditure and caseload tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables): spending by benefit, including payments abroad. -- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): estimates of overpayments and underpayments from fraud and error. +- DWP, [Fraud and Error in the Benefit System](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fraud-and-error-in-the-benefit-system): estimates of benefit overpaid through fraud and error and underpaid through official error. - DWP, [Stat-Xplore](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/): caseloads by benefit, including State Pension recipients by country of residence. +- HMRC, [Annual reports and accounts](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrcs-annual-report-and-accounts): Child Benefit error and fraud estimates. - GOV.UK, [Child Benefit if you leave the UK](https://www.gov.uk/child-benefit-abroad): when Child Benefit is paid for families abroad (EEA, Switzerland and social security agreement countries). - Issue: [#842](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/842). Related: [#1621](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1621) (UK pipeline alignment) and [microcosm#1069](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1069) (UK pensions follow-ups after #1084).