From 41209e84fdcdac0e0c80f0a6cc0d273f490ae9bc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ZimingHua Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:57:19 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] Add standalone savings income tax explainer draft --- .../README.md | 9 + .../cover-provenance.json | 16 + .../cover.webp | Bin 0 -> 59420 bytes ...k-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md | 351 ++++++++++++++++++ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 9 + 5 files changed, 385 insertions(+) create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover-provenance.json create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover.webp create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..611239fd5 --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# Autumn Budget 2026 savings income tax draft + +This PR separates the savings article from property PR #1460. It remains a draft until the savings measure is included in the dashboard and its national data review is complete. It contains verified synthetic household calculations and separately labelled Treasury costings, with no PolicyEngine population estimates. + +Shared calculation inputs, model pins, forecast helper and every-£2 chart validation are retained in [the shared analysis directory](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax), introduced by property PR #1460. The savings chart block is unchanged from `savings-interest-chart.json`; the split introduces no new tax calculation or population run. This PR can be rebased or merged with main after #1460 lands, preserving its independent article scope. + +`cover-provenance.json` records the existing combined-draft illustration reused unchanged for this draft. The post metadata points at its own asset path. No new image generation or chart rendering is implied. + +The updated national reconciliation is being investigated separately. Review evidence is in [dashboard PR #296, comment 6476334141](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/296#issuecomment-6476334141); that review is not incorporated as a new scored result in this draft. diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover-provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover-provenance.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..a2bc971a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover-provenance.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "tool": "built-in image_gen", + "original_path": "app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax/cover.webp", + "asset": { + "path": "app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover.webp", + "prompt": "Use case: stylized-concept.\nAsset type: original editorial cover illustration for PolicyEngine's UK Autumn Budget 2026 article on savings and property income tax.\nCreate a polished wide 16:9 landscape illustration, intended final size 1600x900. Match a coherent nonprofit policy research illustration series: deep dark teal background, soft subtle teal vignette, pale mint and turquoise objects, clean vector-like shapes rendered as a raster image, restrained dimensional depth, gentle shadows, crisp edges, professional calm neutral tone.\nScene: a simplified British terraced house and a savings coin stack arranged together beside a large white income-tax statement with a teal header and a few muted grey abstract lines. One mint coin bears a clear British pound symbol (£). House, savings and statement should read as one coherent still life about taxing rental income and savings interest.\nComposition: main objects within the central 65 percent of the canvas, clear at thumbnail size, generous breathing room on every edge, balanced wide layout, a subtle floor line. Avoid tiny details.\nText: only a single £ symbol on the coin; no words, no tax rates, no numbers, no labels, no title, no logos, no watermark.\nConstraints: original illustration, no people, no flags, no political symbolism, no arrows or data charts, no claims about gains or losses. The image should look like a refined flat editorial illustration with subtle depth, not a photograph or a glossy toy render.", + "width": 1672, + "height": 941, + "format": "WebP", + "encoding_quality": 85, + "pixels_resized": false, + "bytes": 59420, + "sha256": "fcaa9776fa6ebfab449034a0423a166f413a9b4a4d5041747ed4610b20e111b6", + "reuse_note": "Unchanged copy of the original combined-draft cover; the split does not introduce a new generated image or any data in the image." + } +} diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover.webp new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e4c17ef588351315f81838d79a3cbb83b2e4786c GIT binary patch literal 59420 zcmV(nK=Qv*Nk&E#=l}p$MM6+kP&gn6=l}q4*#w;dDu@QH13pnGkwzn;s3fAX`B4B0 z31@EC-$nbZeSLZd;om>+IhjXCvv~LI#rt>b=7WBZ-f!j===zzmYR~&UIXdD@UFr%v zE}q>K`hIG^@qK+XCqyUi{Osr*|EJQ=>;9!b_j*D5FA<#B@UfHm*#AxYrSEUby5xM1 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Interest earned inside an ISA remains exempt from income tax. The change appears in [Budget 2026, paragraph 6.247](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142). + +Key figures for 2027–28: + +- A basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest outside ISAs pays £20 more a year. +- A higher-rate saver with the same interest pays £30 more, because their Personal Savings Allowance is lower. +- A basic-rate saver with £500 of interest pays no extra tax in the example below. +- The Treasury forecasts £125 million of additional revenue in 2027–28 and £590 million in 2031–32. + +Our [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) is where we publish estimates for the Budget measures we model. Population estimates for the savings measure remain under review and are not included in this article. Separate explainers cover the [property income tax increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-property-income-tax) and the [trading allowance increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance). + +## What changes in April 2027? + +The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) had already set savings rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. The additional two-point increase is measured against those existing 2027 rules. Dividend rates remain unchanged by this measure. + +| Income tax band | Already scheduled for 2027–28 | Budget 2026 rate | Change | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Basic | 22% | 24% | +2 percentage points | +| Higher | 42% | 44% | +2 percentage points | +| Additional | 47% | 49% | +2 percentage points | + +## Household impacts + +The examples isolate the announced savings measure in 2027–28. They hold the stated income fixed and show income tax rather than household income after means-tested benefits. + +### Savers pay the higher rates on interest above their allowances + +The Personal Savings Allowance remains £1,000 for basic-rate taxpayers, £500 for higher-rate taxpayers and £0 for additional-rate taxpayers. People with low other income can also qualify for a starting rate of 0% on up to £5,000 of savings interest. These allowances depend on total income, as [HMRC's savings guidance](https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings/how-much-is-tax-free) explains. Interest earned inside an ISA remains exempt from income tax. + +These hypothetical adults live in England and receive only the wages and interest shown. Their wages use the Personal Allowance, and none qualifies for the starting rate for savings. The table isolates income tax on interest. + +| Annual employment income | Annual savings interest | Personal Savings Allowance | Interest taxed above 0% | Tax before the Budget change | Tax after | Extra annual tax | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| £30,000 | £500 | £1,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| £30,000 | £2,000 | £1,000 | £1,000 | £220 | £240 | £20 | +| £60,000 | £2,000 | £500 | £1,500 | £630 | £660 | £30 | + +For the basic-rate example, £2,000 − £1,000 = £1,000 faces the savings basic rate: £1,000 × 22% = £220 before, against £1,000 × 24% = £240 after. The higher-rate example pays an extra £1,500 × 2% = £30. + +The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income levels, each additional £500 of interest above the allowance adds £10 to the tax increase. + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance", + "subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28", + "xKey": "interest", + "xLabel": "Annual savings interest", + "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.", + "series": [ + { + "key": "basic", + "name": "£30,000 salary", + "color": "negative" + }, + { + "key": "higher", + "name": "£60,000 salary", + "color": "secondary" + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 500, + "label": "£60,000 salary: savings allowance" + }, + { + "x": 1000, + "label": "£30,000 salary: savings allowance" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "interest": 500, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 0.0 + }, + { + "interest": 600, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 2.0 + }, + { + "interest": 700, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 4.0 + }, + { + "interest": 800, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 6.0 + }, + { + "interest": 900, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 8.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1000, + "basic": 0.0, + "higher": 10.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1100, + "basic": 2.0, + "higher": 12.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1200, + "basic": 4.0, + "higher": 14.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1300, + "basic": 6.0, + "higher": 16.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1400, + "basic": 8.0, + "higher": 18.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1500, + "basic": 10.0, + "higher": 20.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1600, + "basic": 12.0, + "higher": 22.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1700, + "basic": 14.0, + "higher": 24.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1800, + "basic": 16.0, + "higher": 26.0 + }, + { + "interest": 1900, + "basic": 18.0, + "higher": 28.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2000, + "basic": 20.0, + "higher": 30.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2100, + "basic": 22.0, + "higher": 32.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2200, + "basic": 24.0, + "higher": 34.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2300, + "basic": 26.0, + "higher": 36.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2400, + "basic": 28.0, + "higher": 38.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2500, + "basic": 30.0, + "higher": 40.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2600, + "basic": 32.0, + "higher": 42.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2700, + "basic": 34.0, + "higher": 44.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2800, + "basic": 36.0, + "higher": 46.0 + }, + { + "interest": 2900, + "basic": 38.0, + "higher": 48.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3000, + "basic": 40.0, + "higher": 50.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3100, + "basic": 42.0, + "higher": 52.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3200, + "basic": 44.0, + "higher": 54.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3300, + "basic": 46.0, + "higher": 56.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3400, + "basic": 48.0, + "higher": 58.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3500, + "basic": 50.0, + "higher": 60.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3600, + "basic": 52.0, + "higher": 62.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3700, + "basic": 54.0, + "higher": 64.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3800, + "basic": 56.0, + "higher": 66.0 + }, + { + "interest": 3900, + "basic": 58.0, + "higher": 68.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4000, + "basic": 60.0, + "higher": 70.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4100, + "basic": 62.0, + "higher": 72.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4200, + "basic": 64.0, + "higher": 74.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4300, + "basic": 66.0, + "higher": 76.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4400, + "basic": 68.0, + "higher": 78.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4500, + "basic": 70.0, + "higher": 80.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4600, + "basic": 72.0, + "higher": 82.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4700, + "basic": 74.0, + "higher": 84.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4800, + "basic": 76.0, + "higher": 86.0 + }, + { + "interest": 4900, + "basic": 78.0, + "higher": 88.0 + }, + { + "interest": 5000, + "basic": 80.0, + "higher": 90.0 + } + ] +} +``` + +### Other income affects the tax on interest + +From April 2027, employment, pension and trading income fill the tax bands first, property next, savings after that and dividends last. Allowances first reduce income other than property, savings or dividends. + +Consider an adult in England with £45,000 of salary, £6,000 of property profit after allowable expenses, £2,000 of interest and no mortgage interest. The £12,570 Personal Allowance leaves £32,430 of taxable salary. That uses £32,430 of the £37,700 basic-rate band, leaving £5,270. Property income fills the remaining basic-rate band and enters the higher band. + +The individual qualifies for a £500 Personal Savings Allowance. The remaining £1,500 of interest faces the higher savings rate: £1,500 × 42% = £630 before, against £1,500 × 44% = £660 after. The savings measure alone therefore increases their tax by **£30 a year**. This example holds property tax rates unchanged to isolate savings. + +## Treasury costing + +The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 62](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts the following additional Exchequer revenue. These are the Treasury's figures, on a National Accounts basis. + +| Exchequer revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Savings income rates | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 | + +The [Treasury policy costings, page 75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=75) allow for savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. PolicyEngine's national estimates hold those choices fixed. + +Collection timing affects comparisons. PolicyEngine scores each tax year's liabilities in that year. Self Assessment payments on account are normally based on the previous year's tax bill; the balancing payment for 2027–28 is due on 31 January 2029, alongside the first payment on account for 2028–29. [HMRC's payment guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains that schedule. The [ONS public-finance methodology, section 6.1.2](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/monthlystatisticsonthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide) records Self Assessment income tax using cash receipts, without shifting them back to the year the income arose. + +The dashboard comparison marks 2027–28 and 2028–29 as not comparable on this timing basis. Its 2026–27 comparison is also not comparable: the costing notes do not explain the Treasury's £15 million figure before the new rates take effect, while the model has no rate change in that year. Timing alone does not reconcile the later savings revenue gap. The national savings estimates and the underlying data remain under review; this article reports no PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person count or distribution. + +## Assumptions and limitations + +- The worked examples are hypothetical single adults aged 35 in England. Their income is fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans, property losses, carried-forward finance costs or other reliefs. Savings are outside ISAs. +- The household examples show income tax, holding behaviour fixed. They do not estimate household income after means-tested benefits or responses such as moving savings into ISAs. +- The savings rate increase applies across the UK. The English examples do not establish the effect for a Scottish taxpayer with different tax on their other income. +- These household calculations do not validate the population dataset or resolve the national revenue comparison. National results require their own analysis and disclosure checks. + +## Methodology + +The household calculations use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and PolicyEngine core (version 3.33.3). Each savings comparison applies only the announced savings rate change against the already scheduled 2027–28 rules. Both household scenarios use the OBR’s October 2026 forecast update at dashboard commit `64042657`. Supplied 2027–28 income stays fixed; the forecast updates the model’s projected parameters. Tax calculations are checked against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact schedule breakpoints and points every £100, and its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of interest. + +The [shared analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record the household inputs, model versions, forecast settings and validation. Monetary amounts in tables are rounded to whole pounds; the calculation records retain precision. The household calculations use hypothetical people and do not require population microdata. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index a187d2163..117f3d614 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,4 +1,13 @@ [ + { + "title": "Autumn Budget 2026: higher tax on savings income", + "description": "How the additional two percentage point increase from April 2027 interacts with the Personal Savings Allowance, with worked household examples.", + "date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00", + "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"], + "authors": ["ziming-hua"], + "filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md", + "image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/cover.webp" + }, { "title": "The fuel duty cut extension in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", From e40b322f32b2afbcaa270feca51d3db684214e2a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 16:45:38 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] docs: cite the OBR's policy table lines for the savings costing The savings draft cited the Budget's Table 6.1 total as the Treasury's forecast. The primary source is the government's costing, certified by the OBR, in the OBR's detailed policy table (Table 1.1, measure 62), which has an income tax line and an Onshore CT line. Show both lines, with the Table 6.1 total for context, and explain the 2026-27 figure from the table: it is all Onshore CT. Add the OBR's estimate of the ISA response (EFO paragraph 3.17). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md | 2 +- .../uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md | 16 +++++++++------- 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md index 611239fd5..94cc7cf99 100644 --- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md +++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-savings-income-tax/README.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # Autumn Budget 2026 savings income tax draft -This PR separates the savings article from property PR #1460. It remains a draft until the savings measure is included in the dashboard and its national data review is complete. It contains verified synthetic household calculations and separately labelled Treasury costings, with no PolicyEngine population estimates. +This PR separates the savings article from property PR #1460. It remains a draft until the savings measure is included in the dashboard and its national data review is complete. It contains verified synthetic household calculations and the government's costing from the OBR's detailed policy table (Table 1.1, measure 62: income tax 0, 63, 483, 443, 475 and 510, and Onshore CT 13, 63, 74, 78, 80 and 81, £ million, 2026–27 to 2031–32, in `efo-october-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-policy.xlsx`, sheet 1.1, rows 304 to 306, SHA-256 `cdcc2a06b100241bf3010bd159a4e5d43daef2348a3850797b1e88a308fd45fd`), with the Budget's Table 6.1 total for context, with no PolicyEngine population estimates. Shared calculation inputs, model pins, forecast helper and every-£2 chart validation are retained in [the shared analysis directory](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax), introduced by property PR #1460. The savings chart block is unchanged from `savings-interest-chart.json`; the split introduces no new tax calculation or population run. This PR can be rebased or merged with main after #1460 lands, preserving its independent article scope. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md index b65d0b528..20f668608 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md @@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ Key figures for 2027–28: - A basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest outside ISAs pays £20 more a year. - A higher-rate saver with the same interest pays £30 more, because their Personal Savings Allowance is lower. - A basic-rate saver with £500 of interest pays no extra tax in the example below. -- The Treasury forecasts £125 million of additional revenue in 2027–28 and £590 million in 2031–32. +- The government's costing, certified by the OBR, has £63 million of extra income tax in 2027–28, rising to £510 million in 2031–32. Its total in the Budget's Table 6.1, which adds the costing's “Onshore CT” line, is £125 million in 2027–28 and £590 million in 2031–32. Our [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) is where we publish estimates for the Budget measures we model. Population estimates for the savings measure remain under review and are not included in this article. Separate explainers cover the [property income tax increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-property-income-tax) and the [trading allowance increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance). @@ -323,19 +323,21 @@ Consider an adult in England with £45,000 of salary, £6,000 of property profit The individual qualifies for a £500 Personal Savings Allowance. The remaining £1,500 of interest faces the higher savings rate: £1,500 × 42% = £630 before, against £1,500 × 44% = £660 after. The savings measure alone therefore increases their tax by **£30 a year**. This example holds property tax rates unchanged to isolate savings. -## Treasury costing +## The government's costing -The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 62](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts the following additional Exchequer revenue. These are the Treasury's figures, on a National Accounts basis. +The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is in the OBR's [detailed policy table](https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-zip-file/) (Table 1.1, measure 62). It has two lines, labelled “Income tax” and “Onshore CT”. The Budget's [Table 6.1, row 62](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) gives their total, rounded to the nearest £5 million and on a National Accounts basis; we show it for context. -| Exchequer revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 | +| Additional revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | -| Savings income rates | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 | +| OBR income tax line | 0 | 63 | 483 | 443 | 475 | 510 | +| OBR “Onshore CT” line | 13 | 63 | 74 | 78 | 80 | 81 | +| Table 6.1 total | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 | -The [Treasury policy costings, page 75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=75) allow for savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. PolicyEngine's national estimates hold those choices fixed. +The [Budget policy costings, page 75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=75) allow for savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs; the OBR puts that response at around £0.2 billion a year ([Economic and fiscal outlook, paragraph 3.17](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/)). PolicyEngine's national estimates hold those choices fixed. Collection timing affects comparisons. PolicyEngine scores each tax year's liabilities in that year. Self Assessment payments on account are normally based on the previous year's tax bill; the balancing payment for 2027–28 is due on 31 January 2029, alongside the first payment on account for 2028–29. [HMRC's payment guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains that schedule. The [ONS public-finance methodology, section 6.1.2](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/monthlystatisticsonthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide) records Self Assessment income tax using cash receipts, without shifting them back to the year the income arose. -The dashboard comparison marks 2027–28 and 2028–29 as not comparable on this timing basis. Its 2026–27 comparison is also not comparable: the costing notes do not explain the Treasury's £15 million figure before the new rates take effect, while the model has no rate change in that year. Timing alone does not reconcile the later savings revenue gap. The national savings estimates and the underlying data remain under review; this article reports no PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person count or distribution. +The dashboard comparison marks 2027–28 and 2028–29 as not comparable on this timing basis. Its 2026–27 comparison is also not comparable: the £15 million in Table 6.1 for that year is all on the costing's “Onshore CT” line, and the costing's income tax line, like the model, has nothing before the new rates take effect. Timing alone does not reconcile the later savings revenue gap. The national savings estimates and the underlying data remain under review; this article reports no PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person count or distribution. ## Assumptions and limitations From 504edbd8b7f7e91361ca53882f94c9f2c1c1341a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:22:56 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] docs: active voice in the savings income tax draft Wording only, from tonight's voice sweep; no figures, tables or citations change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md | 16 ++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md index 20f668608..b8219e9fe 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-income-tax.md @@ -7,11 +7,11 @@ Key figures for 2027–28: - A basic-rate saver with £500 of interest pays no extra tax in the example below. - The government's costing, certified by the OBR, has £63 million of extra income tax in 2027–28, rising to £510 million in 2031–32. Its total in the Budget's Table 6.1, which adds the costing's “Onshore CT” line, is £125 million in 2027–28 and £590 million in 2031–32. -Our [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) is where we publish estimates for the Budget measures we model. Population estimates for the savings measure remain under review and are not included in this article. Separate explainers cover the [property income tax increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-property-income-tax) and the [trading allowance increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance). +Our [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) is where we publish estimates for the Budget measures we model. Population estimates for the savings measure remain under review, and this article does not include them. Separate explainers cover the [property income tax increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-property-income-tax) and the [trading allowance increase](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance). ## What changes in April 2027? -The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) had already set savings rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. The additional two-point increase is measured against those existing 2027 rules. Dividend rates remain unchanged by this measure. +The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) had already set savings rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. We measure the additional two-point increase against those existing 2027 rules. This measure leaves dividend rates unchanged. | Income tax band | Already scheduled for 2027–28 | Budget 2026 rate | Change | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | @@ -325,7 +325,7 @@ The individual qualifies for a £500 Personal Savings Allowance. The remaining ## The government's costing -The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is in the OBR's [detailed policy table](https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-zip-file/) (Table 1.1, measure 62). It has two lines, labelled “Income tax” and “Onshore CT”. The Budget's [Table 6.1, row 62](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) gives their total, rounded to the nearest £5 million and on a National Accounts basis; we show it for context. +The government's costing, certified by the OBR, appears in the OBR's [detailed policy table](https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-zip-file/) (Table 1.1, measure 62). It has two lines, labelled “Income tax” and “Onshore CT”. The Budget's [Table 6.1, row 62](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) gives their total, rounded to the nearest £5 million and on a National Accounts basis; we show it for context. | Additional revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | @@ -335,19 +335,19 @@ The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is in the OBR's [detailed policy The [Budget policy costings, page 75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=75) allow for savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs; the OBR puts that response at around £0.2 billion a year ([Economic and fiscal outlook, paragraph 3.17](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/)). PolicyEngine's national estimates hold those choices fixed. -Collection timing affects comparisons. PolicyEngine scores each tax year's liabilities in that year. Self Assessment payments on account are normally based on the previous year's tax bill; the balancing payment for 2027–28 is due on 31 January 2029, alongside the first payment on account for 2028–29. [HMRC's payment guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains that schedule. The [ONS public-finance methodology, section 6.1.2](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/monthlystatisticsonthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide) records Self Assessment income tax using cash receipts, without shifting them back to the year the income arose. +Collection timing affects comparisons. PolicyEngine scores each tax year's liabilities in that year. Self Assessment payments on account normally rest on the previous year's tax bill; the balancing payment for 2027–28 is due on 31 January 2029, alongside the first payment on account for 2028–29. [HMRC's payment guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains that schedule. The [ONS public-finance methodology, section 6.1.2](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/monthlystatisticsonthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide) records Self Assessment income tax using cash receipts, without shifting them back to the year the income arose. -The dashboard comparison marks 2027–28 and 2028–29 as not comparable on this timing basis. Its 2026–27 comparison is also not comparable: the £15 million in Table 6.1 for that year is all on the costing's “Onshore CT” line, and the costing's income tax line, like the model, has nothing before the new rates take effect. Timing alone does not reconcile the later savings revenue gap. The national savings estimates and the underlying data remain under review; this article reports no PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person count or distribution. +The dashboard comparison marks 2027–28 and 2028–29 as not comparable on this timing basis. Its 2026–27 comparison is also not comparable: the £15 million in Table 6.1 for that year sits entirely on the costing's “Onshore CT” line, and the costing's income tax line, like the model, has nothing before the new rates take effect. Timing alone does not reconcile the later savings revenue gap. The national savings estimates and the underlying data remain under review; this article reports no PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person count or distribution. ## Assumptions and limitations -- The worked examples are hypothetical single adults aged 35 in England. Their income is fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans, property losses, carried-forward finance costs or other reliefs. Savings are outside ISAs. +- The worked examples are hypothetical single adults aged 35 in England. We hold their income fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans, property losses, carried-forward finance costs or other reliefs. Their savings sit outside ISAs. - The household examples show income tax, holding behaviour fixed. They do not estimate household income after means-tested benefits or responses such as moving savings into ISAs. - The savings rate increase applies across the UK. The English examples do not establish the effect for a Scottish taxpayer with different tax on their other income. - These household calculations do not validate the population dataset or resolve the national revenue comparison. National results require their own analysis and disclosure checks. ## Methodology -The household calculations use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and PolicyEngine core (version 3.33.3). Each savings comparison applies only the announced savings rate change against the already scheduled 2027–28 rules. Both household scenarios use the OBR’s October 2026 forecast update at dashboard commit `64042657`. Supplied 2027–28 income stays fixed; the forecast updates the model’s projected parameters. Tax calculations are checked against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact schedule breakpoints and points every £100, and its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of interest. +The household calculations use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and PolicyEngine core (version 3.33.3). Each savings comparison applies only the announced savings rate change against the already scheduled 2027–28 rules. Both household scenarios use the OBR’s October 2026 forecast update at dashboard commit `64042657`. Supplied 2027–28 income stays fixed; the forecast updates the model’s projected parameters. We check tax calculations against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact schedule breakpoints and points every £100, and its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of interest. -The [shared analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record the household inputs, model versions, forecast settings and validation. Monetary amounts in tables are rounded to whole pounds; the calculation records retain precision. The household calculations use hypothetical people and do not require population microdata. +The [shared analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record the household inputs, model versions, forecast settings and validation. We round monetary amounts in tables to whole pounds; the calculation records retain precision. The household calculations use hypothetical people and do not require population microdata.