From 79f76171d6592f5babbba993cf7f512568416a81 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:10:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 01/47] Add blog post: the Pension Tax Allowance, step by step A household-level explainer of the Budget 2026 Pension Tax Allowance: the rules from HM Treasury's explainer, the five worked examples reproduced in PolicyEngine UK, three charts (income tax, the allowance by tax year, marginal rates) and the Pension Credit interaction. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp | Bin 0 -> 60636 bytes .../pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp | Bin 0 -> 54432 bytes .../3-marginal-rate.webp | Bin 0 -> 57340 bytes .../posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp | Bin 0 -> 60636 bytes .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 91 ++++++++++++++++++ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 9 ++ 6 files changed, 100 insertions(+) create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/3-marginal-rate.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp new file mode 100644 index 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zKBVnJEd}96S@75qtXlq^!L@hijtPj)e^V|mtcO`deiME22r58Y%0g&1md*13;rMr> zEK!+oL%Tgwz8Lo7HuiZ9R>Dj&0IQhmZ0hD?AOIEg=3;t=ro3==q%;Wu<{uEG$}#j8onz#&-thK4&RM^{I*{*@wHtBANT%J8)*bf}hp%jI9Ch;SgnwzS+lSOQPkF9h ztMq-0j{ZOrZDaWa>fuHB)kK(fPc0zMX&3w`k4he`nTN2r_!dpaUSES#9e{g;SL(>%Zyv2D=XZs0 zOh+8^o#wC)*|&bC2?obvc_F& Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:19:08 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 02/47] Draw the Pension Tax Allowance post's charts as line chart blocks MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit New posts draw charts as ```chart blocks (chart-standards.md), and the website had no line type, so this adds one: BlogLineChart.tsx draws series against a numeric x axis, with optional step series and labelled vertical markers, using ui-kit's axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles and the chart color tokens. blogChartUtils gains a thousands separator, a niceTicks option that leaves zero out of the range, and validFormat for the x axis format. The post's three charts become line blocks built from the PTA rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at every £2 of income. The text follows the review of the dashboard's modifier (#290 at 1df76b8d): 2028-29's State Pension is rounded down to 5p a week (£13,361.40), tax starts at £13,037.75, the uprating reading is stated, and Scottish taxpayers, the full costing and the adjusted triple lock rule are added. The cover is a new title card. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp | Bin 60636 -> 0 bytes .../pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp | Bin 54432 -> 0 bytes .../3-marginal-rate.webp | Bin 57340 -> 0 bytes .../posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp | Bin 60636 -> 44390 bytes .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 299 ++++++++++++++++-- .../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 135 ++++++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx | 9 +- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 269 ++++++++++++++++ website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts | 39 ++- 9 files changed, 719 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/3-marginal-rate.webp create mode 100644 website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx create mode 100644 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zKBVnJEd}96S@75qtXlq^!L@hijtPj)e^V|mtcO`deiME22r58Y%0g&1md*13;rMr> zEK!+oL%Tgwz8Lo7HuiZ9R>Dj&0IQhmZ0hD?AOIEg=3;t=ro3==q%;Wu<{uEG$}#j8onz#&-thK4&RM^{I*{*@wHtBANT%J8)*bf}hp%jI9Ch;SgnwzS+lSOQPkF9h ztMq-0j{ZOrZDaWa>fuHB)kK(fPc0zMX&3w`k4he`nTN2r_!dpaUSES#9e{g;SL(>%Zyv2D=XZs0 zOh+8^o#wC)*|&bC2?obvc_F& { + const mod = await importOriginal(); + return { + ...mod, + ResponsiveContainer: ({ + children, + height, + }: { + children: ReactElement<{ width?: number; height?: number }>; + height?: number | string; + }) => + cloneElement(children, { + width: 600, + height: typeof height === "number" ? height : 240, + }), + }; +}); + +const SPEC = { + type: "line", + title: "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + xKey: "income", + xLabel: "Total income", + series: [ + { key: "baseline", name: "Without the allowance", color: "quinary" }, + { key: "reform", name: "With the allowance", color: "primary" }, + ], + data: [ + { income: 12000, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 12570, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13036.4, baseline: 93.28, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13800, baseline: 246, reform: 246 }, + ], + markers: [{ x: 12570, label: "Personal Allowance" }], + format: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + xFormat: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + source: "PolicyEngine UK", +}; + +const parse = (spec: unknown) => parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify(spec)); + +describe("line chart spec", () => { + test("a valid spec parses as a line chart", () => { + expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test("a step series parses", () => { + const spec = { + ...SPEC, + series: [{ key: "reform", name: "Rate", step: true }], + }; + expect(parse(spec)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test.each([ + ["x values out of order", { data: [...SPEC.data].reverse() }], + [ + "a row missing a series value", + { data: [...SPEC.data.slice(0, 3), { income: 13800, baseline: 246 }] }, + ], + [ + "a string x value", + { data: [{ ...SPEC.data[0], income: "low" }, SPEC.data[1]] }, + ], + ["one data row", { data: [SPEC.data[0]] }], + ["a marker without a label", { markers: [{ x: 12570 }] }], + [ + "a non-boolean step", + { series: [{ key: "reform", name: "R", step: "yes" }] }, + ], + ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }], + ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }], + ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull(); + }); +}); + +describe("line chart rendering", () => { + test("renders the title, series names, marker label and source", () => { + render(); + expect( + screen.getByText("Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28"), + ).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Without the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("With the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Personal Allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("PolicyEngine UK")).toBeInTheDocument(); + }); + + test("an invalid spec renders nothing", () => { + const { container } = render( + , + ); + expect(container).toBeEmptyDOMElement(); + }); +}); + +describe("chart helpers", () => { + test("the separator groups thousands", () => { + expect( + formatChartValue(13036.4, { prefix: "£", decimals: 2, separator: true }), + ).toBe("£13,036.40"); + expect(formatChartValue(-1234567, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe( + "−1,234,567", + ); + expect(formatChartValue(999, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe("999"); + }); + + test("without the separator, values stay ungrouped", () => { + expect(formatChartValue(13036, { decimals: 0 })).toBe("13036"); + }); + + test("niceTicks can leave zero out of the range", () => { + const axis = niceTicks([12000, 13800], 6, false); + expect(axis.domain[0]).toBeGreaterThan(0); + expect(axis.ticks[0]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(12000); + expect(axis.ticks.at(-1)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(13800); + }); + + test("niceTicks includes zero by default", () => { + expect(niceTicks([12000, 13800]).domain[0]).toBe(0); + }); +}); diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx index d2bd74c1e..5f0be9873 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx @@ -9,8 +9,8 @@ * Posts carry data, not styling. Styles are inline token variables because * the website's Tailwind build uses a prefix that ui-kit's utility classes lack. * - * Types: "bar" (below), "waterfall" (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" - * (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and + * Types: "bar" (below), "line" (BlogLineChart.tsx), "waterfall" + * (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and * "source"; an invalid spec renders nothing. * * Spec (type "bar"): @@ -58,6 +58,7 @@ import { niceTicks, validSharedFields, } from "./blogChartUtils"; +import { type BlogLineSpec, LineBody, parseLineSpec } from "./BlogLineChart"; import { type BlogStateMapSpec, StateMapBody, @@ -93,6 +94,7 @@ export interface BlogBarChartSpec { export type BlogChartSpec = | BlogBarChartSpec + | BlogLineSpec | BlogWaterfallSpec | BlogStateMapSpec; @@ -134,6 +136,8 @@ export function parseBlogChartSpec(raw: string): BlogChartSpec | null { switch (spec.type) { case "bar": return parseBarSpec(spec); + case "line": + return parseLineSpec(spec); case "waterfall": return parseWaterfallSpec(spec); case "stateMap": @@ -325,6 +329,7 @@ export function BlogChart({ data }: { data: string | string[] }) { return ( {spec.type === "bar" && } + {spec.type === "line" && } {spec.type === "waterfall" && } {spec.type === "stateMap" && } diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..f89d6aacb --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,269 @@ +"use client"; + +/** + * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line". + * + * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule + * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero, the + * x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value + * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers + * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the + * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. + * + * Spec: + * { + * "type": "line", + * "title": "...", "subtitle": "...", + * "xKey": "income", + * "xLabel": "Total income", + * "series": [ + * { "key": "baseline", "name": "Without the reform", "color": "quinary" }, + * { "key": "reform", "name": "With the reform", "color": "primary", "step": false } + * ], + * "data": [{ "income": 12000, "baseline": 0, "reform": 0 }, ...], + * "markers": [{ "x": 12570, "label": "Personal Allowance" }], + * "yLabel": "...", + * "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "source": "..." + * } + * + * Data rows must be sorted by x, and every row needs a number for every + * series, or the spec is rejected. + */ + +import { + AXIS_STYLE, + GRID_STYLE, + LEGEND_STYLE, + TOOLTIP_STYLE, +} from "@policyengine/ui-kit/charts"; +import { + CartesianGrid, + Legend, + Line, + LineChart, + ReferenceLine, + ResponsiveContainer, + Tooltip, + XAxis, + YAxis, +} from "recharts"; + +import { + type BlogChartFormat, + type BlogChartRow, + type ChartColorName, + chartColor, + formatChartValue, + isFiniteNumber, + isRecord, + niceTicks, + validFormat, +} from "./blogChartUtils"; + +export interface BlogLineSeries { + key: string; + name: string; + color?: ChartColorName; + step?: boolean; +} + +export interface BlogLineMarker { + x: number; + label: string; +} + +export interface BlogLineSpec { + type: "line"; + title?: string; + subtitle?: string; + xKey: string; + xLabel?: string; + series: BlogLineSeries[]; + data: BlogChartRow[]; + markers?: BlogLineMarker[]; + yLabel?: string; + format?: BlogChartFormat; + xFormat?: BlogChartFormat; + source?: string; + height?: number; +} + +export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null { + if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; + if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null; + if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null; + if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; + if ( + !s.series.every( + (x) => + isRecord(x) && + typeof x.key === "string" && + typeof x.name === "string" && + (x.step === undefined || typeof x.step === "boolean"), + ) + ) { + return null; + } + if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length < 2) return null; + const keys = (s.series as BlogLineSeries[]).map((x) => x.key); + const xKey = s.xKey; + let previous = -Infinity; + for (const row of s.data) { + if (!isRecord(row) || !isFiniteNumber(row[xKey])) return null; + if (row[xKey] < previous) return null; + previous = row[xKey]; + if (!keys.every((k) => isFiniteNumber(row[k]))) return null; + } + if ( + s.markers !== undefined && + !( + Array.isArray(s.markers) && + s.markers.every( + (m) => + isRecord(m) && isFiniteNumber(m.x) && typeof m.label === "string", + ) + ) + ) { + return null; + } + return s as unknown as BlogLineSpec; +} + +const MARKER_ROW_HEIGHT = 16; + +interface MarkerLabelProps { + viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number }; + value: string; + row: number; + anchor: "start" | "end"; +} + +/** A marker's label beside its line: right of it in the left half of the + * plot, left of it in the right half. */ +function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { + const x = Number(viewBox?.x); + const y = Number(viewBox?.y); + if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null; + return ( + + {value} + + ); +} + +export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { + const format = spec.format ?? {}; + const xFormat = spec.xFormat ?? {}; + const xs = spec.data.map((row) => row[spec.xKey] as number); + const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) => + spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number), + ); + const yAxis = niceTicks(values); + const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false); + const xMin = Math.min(...xs); + const xMax = Math.max(...xs); + const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax); + const yTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); + const xTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals }); + + return ( + + + + + + {(spec.markers ?? []).map((m, i) => ( + ( + + )} + /> + ))} + formatChartValue(Number(x), xFormat)} + formatter={(value, name) => [ + formatChartValue(Number(value), format), + String(name), + ]} + /> + + {spec.series.map((s, i) => ( + + ))} + + + ); +} diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts index 643b3c0bf..aed48956f 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts +++ b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts @@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ export interface BlogChartFormat { prefix?: string; suffix?: string; signed?: boolean; + /** Group thousands with commas, as in £13,036. */ + separator?: boolean; } export type BlogChartRow = Record; @@ -30,24 +32,36 @@ export function formatChartValue( value: number, format: BlogChartFormat = {}, ): string { - const { decimals = 1, prefix = "", suffix = "", signed = false } = format; + const { + decimals = 1, + prefix = "", + suffix = "", + signed = false, + separator = false, + } = format; const digits = Math.min(MAX_DECIMALS, Math.max(0, Math.round(decimals))); - const magnitude = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); - const isZero = Number(magnitude) === 0; + const fixed = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); + const magnitude = separator + ? fixed.replace(/^\d+/, (whole) => whole.replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+$)/g, ",")) + : fixed; + const isZero = Number(fixed) === 0; const sign = value < 0 && !isZero ? "−" : signed && !isZero ? "+" : ""; return `${sign}${prefix}${magnitude}${suffix}`; } /** * Round the value range out to a step of 1, 2, 2.5 or 5 times a power of ten, - * including zero, so tick labels land on round numbers. + * including zero unless `includeZero` is false, so tick labels land on round + * numbers. */ export function niceTicks( values: number[], target = 4, + includeZero = true, ): { domain: [number, number]; ticks: number[]; decimals: number } { - const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), 0); - const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), 0); + const seed = includeZero || values.length === 0 ? 0 : values[0]; + const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), seed); + const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), seed); // A span under 1e-9 gets a unit axis: a smaller step underflows, or needs // more decimals than toFixed allows. const span = hi - lo >= 1e-9 ? hi - lo : 1; @@ -90,10 +104,16 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { if (s.height !== undefined && !(isFiniteNumber(s.height) && s.height > 0)) { return false; } - const { format } = s; + return validFormat(s.format); +} + +/** An optional BlogChartFormat with every field of the right type. */ +export function validFormat(format: unknown): boolean { + const optionalString = (v: unknown) => + v === undefined || typeof v === "string"; if (format === undefined) return true; if (!isRecord(format)) return false; - const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed } = format; + const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed, separator } = format; return ( (decimals === undefined || (Number.isInteger(decimals) && @@ -101,7 +121,8 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { (decimals as number) <= MAX_DECIMALS)) && optionalString(prefix) && optionalString(suffix) && - (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") + (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") && + (separator === undefined || typeof separator === "boolean") ); } From e3df3c52b22c1e6db9f176978e4e08e66cfea3be Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:23:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 03/47] Add a net income change chart and put the PTA by tax year first MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The Pension Credit section gets a line chart of the change in household net income in 2027-28 for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit and one who does not. Its breakpoints come from the PTA rules and PolicyEngine UK's £12,660.62 minimum guarantee, and agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of income. "The PTA in each tax year" now comes before "Income tax by total income". Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 259 ++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 173 insertions(+), 86 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index e6afae06f..2a1a231f5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -43,94 +43,10 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reprodu Steph's tax of £93.28 is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes her full tax bill. Jonathan's income is £150 above the full new State Pension, so his PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. Nadia's income is above £13,318.40, so she gets no PTA. -## Income tax by total income +## The PTA in each tax year The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pension of £11,000 and a private pension. Total income changes with the private pension. -```chart -{ - "type": "line", - "title": "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax by total income, with and without the Pension Tax Allowance", - "xKey": "income", - "xLabel": "Total income", - "series": [ - { - "key": "without", - "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary" - }, - { - "key": "with", - "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary" - } - ], - "data": [ - { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 12570, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13036.4, - "without": 93.28, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13037.75, - "without": 93.55, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13318.4, - "without": 149.68, - "with": 149.68 - }, - { - "income": 13500, - "without": 186.0, - "with": 186.0 - } - ], - "markers": [ - { - "x": 12570, - "label": "Personal Allowance" - }, - { - "x": 13036.4, - "label": "Full new State Pension" - }, - { - "x": 13318.4, - "label": "PTA withdrawn" - } - ], - "yLabel": "Income tax", - "format": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true - }, - "xFormat": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true - }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." -} -``` - -Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. - -## The PTA in each tax year - ```chart { "type": "line", @@ -246,6 +162,90 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. +## Income tax by total income + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Income tax by total income, with and without the Pension Tax Allowance", + "xKey": "income", + "xLabel": "Total income", + "series": [ + { + "key": "without", + "name": "Without the PTA", + "color": "quinary" + }, + { + "key": "with", + "name": "With the PTA", + "color": "primary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "income": 12500, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12570, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13036.4, + "without": 93.28, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13037.75, + "without": 93.55, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13318.4, + "without": 149.68, + "with": 149.68 + }, + { + "income": 13500, + "without": 186.0, + "with": 186.0 + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" + }, + { + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" + }, + { + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" + } + ], + "yLabel": "Income tax", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." +} +``` + +Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. + ## Marginal tax rates ```chart @@ -330,7 +330,94 @@ The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12, Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,661 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income between £12,570 and about £12,680 receives the PTA but no net income gain. The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so this range extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. People who do not claim Pension Credit keep the full PTA. +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Change in net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income from the Pension Tax Allowance", + "xKey": "income", + "xLabel": "Total income", + "series": [ + { + "key": "no_pc", + "name": "Does not claim Pension Credit", + "color": "primary" + }, + { + "key": "claims_pc", + "name": "Claims Pension Credit", + "color": "secondary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "income": 12400, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12570, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12660.62, + "no_pc": 18.12, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12683.27, + "no_pc": 22.65, + "claims_pc": 22.65 + }, + { + "income": 13037.75, + "no_pc": 93.55, + "claims_pc": 93.55 + }, + { + "income": 13318.4, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" + }, + { + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" + }, + { + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" + } + ], + "yLabel": "Change in net income", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." +} +``` + +The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. ## Assumptions and limitations From 63edc5d042155f1827eb8852618ab8b4649bcc14 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:25:19 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 04/47] Describe the worked examples by income, without the explainer's names Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 18 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 2a1a231f5..f31c6c457 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -33,15 +33,15 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reproduces each result. -| Person | Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | -| -------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | -| Tom | Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Anne | Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970.00 | £80.00 | £80.00 | £0.00 | -| Steph | Full new State Pension only | £13,036.40 | £93.28 | £93.28 | £0.00 | -| Jonathan | Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | -| Nadia | Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | +| Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | +| ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | +| Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970.00 | £80.00 | £80.00 | £0.00 | +| Full new State Pension only | £13,036.40 | £93.28 | £93.28 | £0.00 | +| Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | +| Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | -Steph's tax of £93.28 is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes her full tax bill. Jonathan's income is £150 above the full new State Pension, so his PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. Nadia's income is above £13,318.40, so she gets no PTA. +A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,318.40 and gets no PTA. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -426,7 +426,7 @@ The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. The PTA reduces the tax bill after other allowances; for people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the order of steps may differ from the legislation, which the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set out. - The Pension Credit results assume that the person claims Pension Credit when eligible. -- For Nadia, the explainer's £166 treats all her income as taxable at 20%. We model her income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce her tax. +- For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%. We model the income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From cc8f085081f7b9dc94a3c1fdafcb22241f37403f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:26:02 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 05/47] Use the Chancellor's official portrait as the post's cover Official parliamentary portrait of John Healey by Richard Townshend (UK Parliament, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons), cropped to 16:9 and credited in imageCredit. 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zkZ`*0xro)-qHW%rr_z!^DDZ6<5w8W|?&9ko2h5EQt-6^$ru;f-#HIbelI_&QH?#&3 zm~#DtY&U#0AJ8N0mh?;gTz}0CM)5VfEUBRrZm1Wrwud}VkE|5Hsn<=%V_aMs;f^PF z$(;j%{E&c9anjQ~WTcuH=;J(Jo5ZSRd4BzT0s~S8G`FvUbp_4RVsyl+Vqc1Zp9Fgu z?arK^x8cw&c!o9H(pEa@7f-?;q_V0jsp)ahJli9F`dT47<*NJ}3gd=z2AgD=?SY4q z=M*R~2#sw1Ln$?l58P$D7BJYd5|LKH{27x+bef{w5~|)I!pqQB&prmWou-W-nwmAq1?H;CuP|`yWdeFM0p~ diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4af8acee9..4faadc497 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -6,7 +6,8 @@ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], "filename": "pension-tax-allowance.md", - "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp" + "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp", + "imageCredit": "Richard Townshend, UK Parliament (CC BY 3.0)" }, { "title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency", From ff7bc602e169840f9947be67ec734624f5b56ba0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:28:12 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 06/47] Show net income with and without the PTA, not the change The Pension Credit section's chart now plots household net income for a claimant with and without the PTA, like the income tax and marginal rate charts. Line charts gain "yIncludesZero": false, which fits the y axis to levels far from zero. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 49 ++++++++++--------- .../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 5 ++ website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 11 +++-- 3 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 27 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index f31c6c457..c0cd2d180 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -330,62 +330,62 @@ The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12, Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The chart below shows household net income for a claimant, with and without the PTA. Net income here also includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Change in net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Change in household net income from the Pension Tax Allowance", + "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { - "key": "no_pc", - "name": "Does not claim Pension Credit", - "color": "primary" + "key": "without", + "name": "Without the PTA", + "color": "quinary" }, { - "key": "claims_pc", - "name": "Claims Pension Credit", - "color": "secondary" + "key": "with", + "name": "With the PTA", + "color": "primary" } ], "data": [ { "income": 12400, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12570, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12660.62, - "no_pc": 18.12, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12683.27, - "no_pc": 22.65, - "claims_pc": 22.65 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12703.27 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "no_pc": 93.55, - "claims_pc": 93.55 + "without": 12964.2, + "with": 13057.75 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 13188.72, + "with": 13188.72 }, { "income": 13500, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 13334.0, + "with": 13334.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -402,7 +402,8 @@ In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Change in net income", + "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx index 2da4219f6..8cd33eef5 100644 --- a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx +++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx @@ -56,6 +56,10 @@ describe("line chart spec", () => { expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line"); }); + test("yIncludesZero false parses", () => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, yIncludesZero: false })?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + test("a step series parses", () => { const spec = { ...SPEC, @@ -82,6 +86,7 @@ describe("line chart spec", () => { ], ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }], ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }], + ["a non-boolean yIncludesZero", { yIncludesZero: "no" }], ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => { expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull(); }); diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index f89d6aacb..ce9e9a431 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line". * * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule - * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero, the - * x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value + * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero + * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. @@ -84,6 +84,8 @@ export interface BlogLineSpec { data: BlogChartRow[]; markers?: BlogLineMarker[]; yLabel?: string; + /** False fits the y axis to the data, for levels far from zero. */ + yIncludesZero?: boolean; format?: BlogChartFormat; xFormat?: BlogChartFormat; source?: string; @@ -94,6 +96,9 @@ export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null { if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null; if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null; + if (s.yIncludesZero !== undefined && typeof s.yIncludesZero !== "boolean") { + return null; + } if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; if ( !s.series.every( @@ -171,7 +176,7 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) => spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number), ); - const yAxis = niceTicks(values); + const yAxis = niceTicks(values, 4, spec.yIncludesZero ?? true); const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false); const xMin = Math.min(...xs); const xMax = Math.max(...xs); From bd7638074b2fd9bab469ccb171c1936420c5fd3e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:29:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 07/47] Size the line chart's y axis to its longest tick label Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 5 +++++ 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+) diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index ce9e9a431..1720f3a4e 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -183,6 +183,10 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax); const yTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); + // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title. + const yAxisWidth = + Math.max(...yAxis.ticks.map((t) => yTick(t).length)) * 7 + + (spec.yLabel ? 28 : 12); const xTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals }); @@ -214,6 +218,7 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { } /> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:30:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 08/47] Move the net income chart between income tax and marginal rates Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 124 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 64 insertions(+), 60 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index c0cd2d180..7841a743b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -246,54 +246,64 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. -## Marginal tax rates +## Net income + +The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. Below £12,660.62, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,680.62 with or without the PTA. Above that, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", + "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { "key": "without", "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary", - "step": true + "color": "quinary" }, { "key": "with", "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary", - "step": true + "color": "primary" } ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 + "income": 12400, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12570, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 + }, + { + "income": 12660.62, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 + }, + { + "income": 12683.27, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12703.27 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 53.3 + "without": 12964.2, + "with": 13057.75 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 20.0 + "without": 13188.72, + "with": 13188.72 }, { "income": 13500, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 20.0 + "without": 13334.0, + "with": 13334.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -310,82 +320,70 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", + "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { - "suffix": "%", - "decimals": 1 + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." } ``` -The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. - -## Interaction with Pension Credit - -Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. - -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The chart below shows household net income for a claimant, with and without the PTA. Net income here also includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. +## Marginal tax rates ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { "key": "without", "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary" + "color": "quinary", + "step": true }, { "key": "with", "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary" + "color": "primary", + "step": true } ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 + "income": 12500, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 }, { "income": 12570, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 - }, - { - "income": 12660.62, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 - }, - { - "income": 12683.27, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12703.27 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 0.0 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "without": 12964.2, - "with": 13057.75 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "without": 13188.72, - "with": 13188.72 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 }, { "income": 13500, - "without": 13334.0, - "with": 13334.0 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -402,22 +400,28 @@ In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Household net income", - "yIncludesZero": false, + "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", "format": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true + "suffix": "%", + "decimals": 1 }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` +The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. + +## Interaction with Pension Credit + +Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. + +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The net income chart above shows this for a claimant. + The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. ## Assumptions and limitations From 047adc4558e1f1769c765a77618c5fbb221b5c24 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:47:30 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 09/47] Revise the PTA post after a full review of the model and method MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Pension Credit: use the 2027-28 minimum guarantee uprated by earnings (£247.30 a week; the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is earnings growth, above September 2026 CPI of 3.5%), not the model's CPI projection. - Worked examples: add a net income table that shows how the PTA passes through to Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction. - Charts: a point every £100 for the tooltip; the net income chart starts at £0; the marginal rate chart shows the effective rate from household net income, as marginal_tax_rate does, not the income tax rate. - Text: who gets the PTA, the 500,000 and 290,000 counts, the Scottish rule from the explainer, non-transferability, the costing's signs and its no-behaviour assumption, qualified "pays no income tax", the 52-week and rounding assumptions, the 6 October State Pension age test, and the simplified worked examples. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 1073 ++++++++++++++++- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 1008 insertions(+), 67 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 7841a743b..2a5fa7269 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -1,21 +1,23 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is at or just above the full new State Pension. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and just above the full new State Pension. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. Key figures for 2027-28: - The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. -- The full PTA is £94: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28, which HM Treasury rounds up. -- A pensioner with total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. +- The full PTA is £94, which covers the £93.28 of income tax that the full new State Pension would otherwise bring. +- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, no other tax charges and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. - The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. -- Across that £282 withdrawal range, the marginal income tax rate is 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. +- In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. +- For a pensioner who claims means-tested benefits, those benefits fall as income tax falls, so net income rises by less than the PTA. ## What the PTA does -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) describes the PTA in its list of tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) gives the rules in full. The PTA has four parts: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: -1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. -2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance. It is a reduction in the tax bill, not a change to the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. The rate is 20% for all UK taxpayers, including Scottish taxpayers. -3. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. -4. **Taper.** In the explainer's words, "For every £3 of income above the full level of the new State Pension, your Pension Tax Allowance will reduce by £1." +1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. +2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28. The explainer gives the full PTA as £94, and its worked examples and the £13,319 end of the withdrawal range use £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. +4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. +5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC applies it automatically, with no claim. @@ -25,13 +27,15 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | 2028-29 | £13,361.40 | £159 | £13,838.40 | | 2029-30 | £13,696.80 | £226 | £14,374.80 | -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values are PolicyEngine UK's projections under the triple lock, rounded down to 5p a week, because the government has not yet set those rates. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows use PolicyEngine UK's triple lock projections of the weekly rate, rounded down to 5p, for 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. -The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows +£50 million in 2030-31 and −£15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The explainer states that about 290,000 pensioners will pay no income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and about 500,000 will pay less. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. +The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. ## Worked examples -The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reproduces each result. +### Income tax + +The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives the same income tax for each. | Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | @@ -43,9 +47,22 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reprodu A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,318.40 and gets no PTA. +### Net income and other benefits + +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows four single pensioners aged 70 in the North West of England in 2027-28. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renter pays £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. + +| Pensioner | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Household net income | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | + +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. + ## The PTA in each tax year -The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pension of £11,000 and a private pension. Total income changes with the private pension. +The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is all pension income, such as the State Pension and a private pension. The results depend only on total income, not on its source. ```chart { @@ -73,7 +90,13 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, + "income": 12400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12500.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 @@ -84,6 +107,36 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "y2027": 6.0, + "y2028": 6.0, + "y2029": 6.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "y2027": 26.0, + "y2028": 26.0, + "y2029": 26.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "y2027": 46.0, + "y2028": 46.0, + "y2029": 46.0 + }, + { + "income": 12900.0, + "y2027": 66.0, + "y2028": 66.0, + "y2029": 66.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, + "y2027": 86.0, + "y2028": 86.0, + "y2029": 86.0 + }, { "income": 13036.4, "y2027": 93.28, @@ -96,6 +149,24 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 93.55, "y2029": 93.55 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "y2027": 72.8, + "y2028": 106.0, + "y2029": 106.0 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "y2027": 39.47, + "y2028": 126.0, + "y2029": 126.0 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "y2027": 6.13, + "y2028": 146.0, + "y2029": 146.0 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -114,6 +185,24 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 158.55, "y2029": 158.55 }, + { + "income": 13400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 146.13, + "y2029": 166.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 112.8, + "y2029": 186.0 + }, + { + "income": 13600.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 79.47, + "y2029": 206.0 + }, { "income": 13696.8, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -126,12 +215,54 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 46.8, "y2029": 225.6 }, + { + "income": 13700.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 46.13, + "y2029": 224.93 + }, + { + "income": 13800.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 12.8, + "y2029": 191.6 + }, { "income": 13838.4, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 178.8 }, + { + "income": 13900.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 158.27 + }, + { + "income": 14000.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 124.93 + }, + { + "income": 14100.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 91.6 + }, + { + "income": 14200.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 58.27 + }, + { + "income": 14300.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 24.93 + }, { "income": 14374.8, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -139,7 +270,13 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2029": 0.0 }, { - "income": 14500, + "income": 14400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 14500.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 @@ -160,7 +297,7 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens } ``` -The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. +The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. ## Income tax by total income @@ -185,7 +322,7 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, + "income": 12500.0, "without": 0.0, "with": 0.0 }, @@ -194,6 +331,31 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f "without": 0.0, "with": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "without": 6.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "without": 26.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "without": 46.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12900.0, + "without": 66.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, + "without": 86.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, { "income": 13036.4, "without": 93.28, @@ -204,13 +366,33 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f "without": 93.55, "with": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "without": 106.0, + "with": 33.2 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "without": 126.0, + "with": 86.53 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "without": 146.0, + "with": 139.87 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "without": 149.68, "with": 149.68 }, { - "income": 13500, + "income": 13400.0, + "without": 166.0, + "with": 166.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, "without": 186.0, "with": 186.0 } @@ -248,13 +430,13 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the ## Net income -The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. Below £12,660.62, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,680.62 with or without the PTA. Above that, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. +This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income counts pension income and every tax and benefit that applies: here, Pension Credit, income tax, the £200 Winter Fuel Payment and the £180 TV licence fee. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The pensioner has no housing costs, so Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction do not apply. ```chart { "type": "line", "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "subtitle": "Household net income by total pension income, for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -271,57 +453,762 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 + "income": 0.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1300.0, + 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12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 2800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 2900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + 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13334.0, "with": 13334.0 - } - ], - "markers": [ + }, { - "x": 12570, - "label": "Personal Allowance" + "income": 13600.0, + "without": 13414.0, + "with": 13414.0 }, { - "x": 13036.4, - "label": "Full new State Pension" + "income": 13700.0, + "without": 13494.0, + "with": 13494.0 }, { - "x": 13318.4, - "label": "PTA withdrawn" + "income": 13800.0, + "without": 13574.0, + "with": 13574.0 + }, + { + "income": 13900.0, + "without": 13654.0, + "with": 13654.0 + }, + { + "income": 14000.0, + "without": 13734.0, + "with": 13734.0 + }, + { + "income": 14100.0, + "without": 13814.0, + "with": 13814.0 + }, + { + "income": 14200.0, + "without": 13894.0, + "with": 13894.0 + }, + { + "income": 14300.0, + "without": 13974.0, + "with": 13974.0 + }, + { + "income": 14400.0, + "without": 14054.0, + "with": 14054.0 + }, + { + "income": 14500.0, + "without": 14134.0, + "with": 14134.0 } ], "yLabel": "Household net income", - "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, @@ -332,17 +1219,21 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." } ``` +We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247.30 a week, or £12,859.60 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,879.60 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. + ## Marginal tax rates +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the pensioner does not keep, after income tax and any loss of benefits. It is 1 minus the change in household net income, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, here for a £1 rise in private pension. + ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", + "title": "Effective marginal tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Share of each extra £1 of private pension lost to income tax and lower Pension Credit", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -361,12 +1252,47 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, + "income": 12400.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12500.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12859.6, + "without": 100.0, "with": 0.0 }, { - "income": 12570, + "income": 12900.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12932.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, "without": 20.0, "with": 0.0 }, @@ -375,13 +1301,33 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "without": 20.0, "with": 53.3 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "without": 20.0, "with": 20.0 }, { - "income": 13500, + "income": 13400.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, "without": 20.0, "with": 20.0 } @@ -400,7 +1346,7 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", + "yLabel": "Effective marginal tax rate", "format": { "suffix": "%", "decimals": 1 @@ -410,31 +1356,26 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." } ``` -The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. - -## Interaction with Pension Credit - -Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. - -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The net income chart above shows this for a claimant. - -The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. +Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,859.60, 0% from there to £13,037.75, 53.3% from £13,037.75 to £13,318.40, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. ## Assumptions and limitations -- The analysis covers single pensioners in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. -- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension, PTA and Pension Credit values use PolicyEngine UK projections. The published rates may differ. +- The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection is £243.47. +- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values are PolicyEngine UK projections. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. -- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. The PTA reduces the tax bill after other allowances; for people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the order of steps may differ from the legislation, which the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set out. -- The Pension Credit results assume that the person claims Pension Credit when eligible. -- For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%. We model the income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. For people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the legislation in the Finance Bill 2026-27 may set a different order. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. +- PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. +- We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. +- In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax and the PTA are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 step of total income. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4faadc497..af05b85ec 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance, step by step", - "description": "From April 2027, pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension pay no income tax. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work for example pensioners, and how it interacts with Pension Credit.", + "description": "From April 2027, the Pension Tax Allowance removes income tax for most pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work, and how they pass through to Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:00:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], From 5b6eb05c10056e71d7baa44fda99e041936c4a8c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:47:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 10/47] =?UTF-8?q?Shorten=20the=20wording=20on=20the=20?= =?UTF-8?q?=C2=A394=20full=20allowance?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 2a5fa7269..52e0fa73e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Key figures for 2027-28: - The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. -- The full PTA is £94, which covers the £93.28 of income tax that the full new State Pension would otherwise bring. +- The full PTA is £94. - A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, no other tax charges and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. - The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. - In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. -2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28. The explainer gives the full PTA as £94, and its worked examples and the £13,319 end of the withdrawal range use £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". +2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". 3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. From 0341ab6c5c9f7583a21df0a7e31c2e8e62dc154e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:49:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 11/47] Use an original vector illustration as the PTA post's cover MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit A tax letter showing £0.00, pound coins, a teacup and reading glasses in the PolicyEngine teal palette, drawn as SVG and rendered to WebP. It replaces the portrait, so the photo credit goes. 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z%d1V_^_okXzawlmw8eTNP1p)xGIv%6so{973{OzM1$Y6gz7WCuOeWIQv4>+UPHuOa z5@;5Mck`X&Y}9#|$h9~4|CE(6{J*_)E#A9n6O+A3e%F)~HC_>%53E>DI%mekrfNF# zM^!1plsB$r!O3f(-V_P{S-Qi4ebt!mP>?y8Ir)mt4zPGq0C_1uqMc5~e45v$FK^3i z5GXpfNzEfe=48|dRF-f}xIfbkdB2Wv&bPdvm&$3%cW1ZGR(%0AzC3qM15XX=k<%6TTk;<6vi1H8O5sAI80vI!V=nn`f*2Hd;8S zM({nMR|$X1zzQ815+tE4o-}gJJ6IL{*{ Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:50:01 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 12/47] Rename the PTA cover so caches load the new illustration Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../{cover.webp => cover-illustration.webp} | Bin app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) rename app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/{cover.webp => cover-illustration.webp} (100%) diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp similarity index 100% rename from app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp rename to app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index e43d9734c..8973f3a7a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], "filename": "pension-tax-allowance.md", - "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp" + "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp" }, { "title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency", From 877e1efe41dbf293c9d8248c92198c8449e2aab1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:51:02 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 13/47] =?UTF-8?q?Show=20the=20net=20income=20chart=20aroun?= =?UTF-8?q?d=20the=20PTA=20range=20again,=20not=20from=20=C2=A30?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 677 +----------------- 1 file changed, 11 insertions(+), 666 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 52e0fa73e..1cf9df6f8 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -436,7 +436,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit { "type": "line", "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income by total pension income, for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -452,626 +452,6 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit } ], "data": [ - { - "income": 0.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, { "income": 12400.0, "without": 12879.6, @@ -1156,59 +536,24 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit "income": 13500.0, "without": 13334.0, "with": 13334.0 - }, - { - "income": 13600.0, - "without": 13414.0, - "with": 13414.0 - }, - { - "income": 13700.0, - "without": 13494.0, - "with": 13494.0 - }, - { - "income": 13800.0, - "without": 13574.0, - "with": 13574.0 - }, - { - "income": 13900.0, - "without": 13654.0, - "with": 13654.0 - }, - { - "income": 14000.0, - "without": 13734.0, - "with": 13734.0 - }, - { - "income": 14100.0, - "without": 13814.0, - "with": 13814.0 - }, - { - "income": 14200.0, - "without": 13894.0, - "with": 13894.0 - }, + } + ], + "markers": [ { - "income": 14300.0, - "without": 13974.0, - "with": 13974.0 + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "income": 14400.0, - "without": 14054.0, - "with": 14054.0 + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" }, { - "income": 14500.0, - "without": 14134.0, - "with": 14134.0 + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, From abf07402405bb262e180c10ae79f26ce998edbc0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:52:28 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 14/47] Put line chart marker labels above the plot; align the PTA chart ranges MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Marker labels move to a strip above the plot area, one row per marker, so they no longer cross the data lines. The income tax chart now spans £12,400 to £13,500, like the net income and marginal rate charts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 5 ++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 24 +++++++++++++------ 2 files changed, 22 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 1cf9df6f8..62dc0d4b7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -321,6 +321,11 @@ The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the } ], "data": [ + { + "income": 12400.0, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, { "income": 12500.0, "without": 0.0, diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index 1720f3a4e..94e6ed510 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -7,8 +7,9 @@ * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers - * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the - * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. + * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally in a + * strip above the plot, one row per marker, so labels cross neither the + * data nor each other. * * Spec: * { @@ -142,19 +143,21 @@ interface MarkerLabelProps { viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number }; value: string; row: number; + rows: number; anchor: "start" | "end"; } -/** A marker's label beside its line: right of it in the left half of the - * plot, left of it in the right half. */ -function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { +/** A marker's label in the strip above the plot, in its own row, beside its + * line: right of it in the left half of the plot, left of it in the right + * half. */ +function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, rows, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { const x = Number(viewBox?.x); const y = Number(viewBox?.y); if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null; return ( t >= xMin && t <= xMax); + const markerRows = spec.markers?.length ?? 0; const yTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title. @@ -194,7 +198,12 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { )} From 3dfc4767d2a77db4de628844d28489c23ef39515 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:56:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 15/47] Add Universal Credit to the PTA benefits table; trim the chart sources A mixed-age couple claims Universal Credit, which counts pension income before income tax (UC Regs 2013 reg. 66), so the PTA leaves it unchanged and the couple keeps the full PTA. The post notes the Marriage Allowance case and the earnings case the model does not capture. The chart source lines no longer repeat the Pension Credit estimate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 22 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 12 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 62dc0d4b7..23eaed352 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,16 +49,17 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of inco ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows four single pensioners aged 70 in the North West of England in 2027-28. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renter pays £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows five households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and a couple aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. -| Pensioner | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Household net income | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | +| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -569,7 +570,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` @@ -706,7 +707,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` @@ -723,6 +724,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. +- Universal Credit counts earnings after income tax. Where the older partner in a mixed-age couple pays income tax on earnings, the PTA can raise those earnings after tax, and Universal Credit then takes back 55p of each £1. Our model does not capture this case. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From fb90f167c80d6c481ec43d854d4d70442fd77212 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:57:20 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 16/47] Split the benefits paragraph so Universal Credit has its own Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 4 +++- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 23eaed352..3e376a967 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -59,7 +59,9 @@ Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income afte | £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | | Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. + +A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year From 7182a6a391133e37b83b19ff7f7f541a1c2b6559 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:05:17 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 17/47] Show real couple cases for Universal Credit and the PTA MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Married couples keep the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's tax, so the PTA gives nothing. Unmarried couples keep the full PTA on pension income; on earnings, Universal Credit now takes back 55p of each £1, because the model passes the PTA into the tax that UC deducts from earnings. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 24 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 3e376a967..fb6b5a72e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,19 +49,21 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of inco ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows five households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and a couple aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. - -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | -| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows seven households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and three couples aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. + +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Married couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | +£41.97 | Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. -A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -726,7 +728,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. -- Universal Credit counts earnings after income tax. Where the older partner in a mixed-age couple pays income tax on earnings, the PTA can raise those earnings after tax, and Universal Credit then takes back 55p of each £1. Our model does not capture this case. +- PolicyEngine UK takes a person's earnings as the lowest slice of their income when it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts, and it takes tax reductions off that tax first. We apply the PTA in the same way. The couples' examples do not include local Council Tax Reduction schemes for working-age households. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From deedfed9ef0af95921c51c5850ce024c64b7c1a1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:30:51 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 18/47] Add blog post: the Carer's Allowance earnings taper, step by step MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit A UK post on the Budget 2026 Carer's Allowance taper: from within 2030-31, in England and Wales, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 of weekly earnings above the Weekly Earnings Limit (16 x the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 in 2031-32) instead of being lost in full. - Worked examples for two carers in 2031-32, one not on Universal Credit and one on it, from PolicyEngine UK household calculations on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the current-law limit set to £234 on both sides. - Three line charts: the allowance by gross weekly pay, the change in net income, and the share of each extra £1 kept. - The Universal Credit interaction, the Treasury costing (Table 6.1, row 7) and PolicyEngine's population estimates. - An original vector cover in the PTA post's style, drawn as SVG and rendered to WebP. 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zKfaGkkxhe^3JyxlSXv`s8N?>ij)4&7!VBCq75_zFHzO*#x`7`k@vj_jDVL9C!(;$Y zgAIVr<+banG1#(2{#U;gnwW2B4yj)=r1kLXd%WgaY^K@%${uj^$e*k&)&gAYei0GG zFJSbmA?Qt75#M6DbyN{9uUE*I)35L2wmlw>-{yx$vP|8;t0rkP1s80x0Sw;|?6myf zZ!Ld-N(!j35og5}7x(Vh4+Iu+%8x`0k8BVn@y8#%XN9?_AWxkGmW~;_V1elQw?9LV z>%PS9Hwag&nhWxbp$Jfe(feHcAkogrM7zxr_cN)G(MBL|C(pWBRo zA)#TcmeoPk zJ?>xvjVsQT<4BI^S-?5#%_=V>($EVP4O1x9A+cJpDH>Z6JCk&@nD4px`^0>z;0_R8!q0tRs4rggoox_LFfK>fk41_CI34HAh8($YOCIS z$J8d+pwiM`^RC~OV;~^V`~MT8|7Hr=$sHgdxZMAT>OWE8TQT*w@*)3OK=r45GGOUl z@gtx5SM^x%!ngeY?^Zs~|ND&pxq|-xC Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:47:59 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 19/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: count PAYE on the allowance against UC, cite sources, round to the pound MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Worked examples, charts and population estimates now count the tax on Carer's Allowance, collected through an employee's tax code, against Universal Credit earned income (UC Regulations 2013, reg. 55(5)(b)). Carer 2 loses about £8 a week at £240 instead of £17. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard don't make this adjustment yet; the post says so, and leaves self-employed carers out of scope. - Population estimates from the rerun with the adjustment and the government's limit rule on both sides: net cost £27.5 million and £55.0 million, 69% of the Treasury's figures. - Citations read from the sources: policy costings p. 16, Data Sources p. 30, Table 6.1 row 7, the Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352 (paras 5.3 and 5.6), UC regulations 66(1)(b)(iii) and 55(5)(b), and HMRC's pages on taxable state benefits. - Whole pounds outside the household tables, in prose, summary tables and charts (data and tooltips), and sections in the order of the Budget post template. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 410 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 202 insertions(+), 208 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index bb018c990..3fc1fdf4b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -2,32 +2,33 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced that carers wh Key figures for 2031-32: -- The Weekly Earnings Limit is 16 hours at the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 a week, on the OBR's forecast of £14.62 an hour. -- PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98.37 a week. -- Under current rules, a carer whose earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit and reaches zero when earnings for the limit reach £332.37 a week (£234 + £98.37). -- Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax and National Insurance. For an employee with no pension contributions, the allowance reaches zero just above £365.68 a week of gross pay. -- A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75.24 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £37.83. -- Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses. PolicyEngine UK shows a loss of £17.13 a week at £240; in practice the loss would be about 45% of that. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32. We estimate a net cost of £23.7 million and £47.3 million. +- The Weekly Earnings Limit is 16 hours at the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 a week, on the OBR's forecast for April 2031. +- PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98 a week. +- Under current rules, a carer whose earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit, so a carer with earnings for the limit of £333 a week or more gets none. +- Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax and National Insurance. For an employee with no pension contributions, the allowance runs out at gross pay of £366 a week. +- A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. +- Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses: about £8 a week at £240, once the tax on the allowance is deducted from earnings for Universal Credit, as we explain below. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32. We estimate a net cost of £27.5 million and £55.0 million. ## What the Budget announced -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) (paragraph 6.13) and the Treasury's policy costings (page 16) describe the measure: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) (paragraph 6.13) and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) describe the measure: -1. **The earnings limit.** Carer's Allowance is not paid for a week in which the carer's earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit. The Budget defines the limit as 16 hours at the National Living Wage. The government rounds the limit up to the next pound ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/memorandum/contents), paragraph 5.6), as when it set £196 from April 2025 (16 × £12.21 = £195.36). +1. **The earnings limit.** Carer's Allowance is not paid for a week in which the carer's earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit. The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage. Since April 2025, the government has set the limit at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week in April 2025 ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). 2. **The taper.** Above the limit, the allowance is withdrawn at a rate of 100%: it falls by £1 for each £1 of earnings above the limit, instead of being lost in full. 3. **Earnings.** The test counts net earnings: gross pay less income tax, National Insurance and half of any pension contributions ([Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). 4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. -5. **When and who.** The taper starts within 2030-31; the date has not been set. The Treasury expects about 48,000 carers to benefit, about 3,000 of them in Wales. +5. **When.** The taper begins within the 2030-31 financial year, on a date still to be confirmed. +6. **Who.** The government estimates that around 48,000 people benefit in 2030-31, including people who become newly entitled, of whom around 3,000 live in Wales ([Budget 2026 data sources](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1e9a2460c1346f7be77ff/Budget_2026_-_Data_Sources.pdf), page 30). -| Tax year | National Living Wage (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance (projection) | Allowance reaches zero at earnings of | -| -------- | ----------------------------------: | --------------------: | -----------------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -| 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96.44 | £324.44 | -| 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98.37 | £332.37 | +| Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly earnings for the limit of | +| -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -----------------------------------------------: | +| 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | +| 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98 | £333 or more | -The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. +The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. -The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. +The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. | £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | ----------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | @@ -38,9 +39,9 @@ The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 mil The examples follow two carers in the West Midlands in 2031-32. Each is 40, works as an employee with no pension contributions, and cares for 35 hours a week for a parent aged 72 who receives Attendance Allowance and lives in a separate household. Household net income is therefore the carer's own. - **Carer 1** owns their home outright, has no housing costs and does not claim Universal Credit. -- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The award includes the carer element, £54.97 a week, and a housing element of £160.38 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. +- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The award includes the carer element, £55 a week, and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. -Each table starts from gross pay and works out earnings for the limit. At or below the £234 limit, a carer gets the full £98.37 with or without the taper. Above it, the allowance is £0 without the taper and £98.37 less the excess with it. Net income is gross pay less income tax and National Insurance, plus Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit, less the £3.46 a week TV licence fee. +Each table starts from gross pay and works out earnings for the limit. At or below the £234 limit, a carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. Above it, the allowance is £0 without the taper and the full rate less the excess with it. Net income is gross pay less income tax and National Insurance, plus Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit, less the TV licence fee (£180 a year). The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 × the National Living Wage rounded up to the next pound (£234 in 2031-32), not the £204 that PolicyEngine UK holds after 2026-27. So for carers earning between £204 and £234, the amounts with and without the taper differ from those on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, while the measure's cost and each household's change are the same either way. @@ -60,27 +61,29 @@ The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 | Net income with the taper | £284.58 | £308.58 | £311.78 | £313.70 | £316.58 | £319.46 | £323.78 | | **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **+£75.24** | **+£60.87** | **+£49.35** | **+£37.83** | **+£20.55** | -At £240 a week, earnings for the limit are £240.00, £6 above the limit, so the taper gives £98.37 − £6 = £92.37. Carer's Allowance is taxable, and the allowance takes the carer's income above the £12,830 Personal Allowance, so income tax rises by £17.13 and net income by £75.24. At £330 a week, £23.32 of income tax and National Insurance on the pay leaves earnings for the limit of £306.68, so the allowance is £98.37 − £72.68 = £25.69 and net income rises by £20.55. At £200 and £230, earnings are at or below the limit, and nothing changes. +At £240 a week, earnings for the limit are £240, £6 above the limit, so the taper pays the full rate less £6, about £92 a week. Carer's Allowance is taxable, and with it the carer's income is above the £12,830 Personal Allowance, so income tax rises by about £17 and net income by about £75. At £330 a week, income tax and National Insurance on the pay leave earnings for the limit of about £307, so the allowance is about £26 and net income rises by about £21. At £200 and £230, earnings are at or below the limit, and nothing changes. ### Carer 2: on Universal Credit -| Weekly amounts | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ----------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ---------: | ---------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| Income tax and NI on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £3.72 | £9.32 | £14.92 | £23.32 | -| Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Excess over the £234 limit | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance without the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| Universal Credit without the taper | £121.29 | £104.79 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | -| Universal Credit with the taper | £121.29 | £104.79 | £105.29 | £112.61 | £119.09 | £125.57 | £135.29 | -| Income tax without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| Income tax with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| Net income without the taper | £405.87 | £413.37 | £434.20 | £441.53 | £448.01 | £454.49 | £464.21 | -| Net income with the taper | £405.87 | £413.37 | £417.07 | £426.31 | £435.67 | £445.03 | £459.07 | -| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **−£17.13** | **−£15.22** | **−£12.34** | **−£9.46** | **−£5.14** | - -Carer 2 gets the same Carer's Allowance as carer 1, but Universal Credit falls by the same amount: at £240 a week, the allowance rises by £92.37, and Universal Credit falls from £197.66 to £105.29, also by £92.37. The income tax on the allowance, £17.13, is then a loss. The section on Universal Credit below explains why the loss in practice would be smaller. +| Weekly amounts | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ----------------------------------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| Income tax and NI on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £3.72 | £9.32 | £14.92 | £23.32 | +| Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| Excess over the £234 limit | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | +| Carer's Allowance without the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| Income tax deducted from earnings for UC, without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| Income tax deducted from earnings for UC, with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | +| Universal Credit without the taper | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | +| Universal Credit with the taper | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | +| Income tax without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| Income tax with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | +| Net income without the taper | £411.55 | £422.35 | £434.20 | £441.53 | £448.01 | £454.49 | £464.21 | +| Net income with the taper | £411.55 | £422.35 | £426.49 | £434.68 | £442.45 | £450.23 | £461.89 | +| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **−£7.71** | **−£6.85** | **−£5.55** | **−£4.26** | **−£2.31** | + +At £240 a week, carer 2 gets the same extra allowance as carer 1, about £92 a week, and Universal Credit counts all of it as unearned income. The allowance also adds about £17 of income tax. In these examples, that tax is deducted from carer 2's earnings for Universal Credit, as PAYE on the job (see below), so Universal Credit gives back 55% of it, about £9. Universal Credit falls by about £83 in all, from £198 to £115 a week, and net income falls by about £8. ## Carer's Allowance by pay @@ -105,133 +108,128 @@ Carer 2 gets the same Carer's Allowance as carer 1, but Universal Credit falls b ], "data": [ { - "pay": 150.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 150, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 170.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 170, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 190.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 190, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 210.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 210, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 230.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 230, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 234.0, - "without": 98.37, - "with": 98.37 + "pay": 234, + "without": 98, + "with": 98 }, { - "pay": 234.01, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 98.36 + "pay": 235, + "without": 0, + "with": 97 }, { - "pay": 240.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 92.37 + "pay": 240, + "without": 0, + "with": 92 }, { - "pay": 246.73, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 85.64 + "pay": 247, + "without": 0, + "with": 85 }, { - "pay": 260.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 76.09 + "pay": 260, + "without": 0, + "with": 76 }, { - "pay": 280.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 61.69 + "pay": 280, + "without": 0, + "with": 62 }, { - "pay": 300.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 47.29 + "pay": 300, + "without": 0, + "with": 47 }, { - "pay": 320.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 32.89 + "pay": 320, + "without": 0, + "with": 33 }, { - "pay": 340.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 18.49 + "pay": 340, + "without": 0, + "with": 18 }, { - "pay": 360.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 4.09 + "pay": 360, + "without": 0, + "with": 4 }, { - "pay": 365.68, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 + "pay": 366, + "without": 0, + "with": 0 }, { - "pay": 365.69, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 + "pay": 380, + "without": 0, + "with": 0 }, { - "pay": 380.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "pay": 400.0, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 + "pay": 400, + "without": 0, + "with": 0 } ], "markers": [ { - "x": 234.0, + "x": 234, "label": "Weekly Earnings Limit" }, { - "x": 246.73, + "x": 247, "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "x": 365.68, + "x": 366, "label": "Allowance runs out" } ], "yLabel": "Carer's Allowance a week", "format": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2, + "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2, + "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast; Budget 2026." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described below; Budget 2026." } ``` -Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98.37 to zero as soon as earnings pass £234. With the taper, it falls by £1 for each £1 of pay up to £246.73 a week, where income tax (above the £12,830 Personal Allowance) and National Insurance on the pay begin. Above that, each extra £1 of gross pay adds 72p to earnings for the limit, after 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance, so the allowance falls by 72p. It reaches zero just above £365.68 a week. +Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98 to zero as soon as earnings pass £234. With the taper, it falls by £1 for each £1 of pay up to about £247 a week, where income tax (above the £12,830 Personal Allowance) and National Insurance on the pay begin. Above that, each extra £1 of gross pay adds 72p to earnings for the limit, after 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance, so the allowance falls by 72p. It runs out at £366 a week. -## Change in net income +## Net income and Universal Credit ```chart { @@ -254,131 +252,135 @@ Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98.37 to zero as soon as earnings ], "data": [ { - "pay": 150.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 - }, - { - "pay": 170.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 150, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 190.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 170, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 210.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 190, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 230.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 210, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 234.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 230, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 234.01, - "notOnUc": 81.23, - "onUc": -17.13 + "pay": 234, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 240.0, - "notOnUc": 75.24, - "onUc": -17.13 + "pay": 235, + "notOnUc": 80, + "onUc": -8 }, { - "pay": 246.73, - "notOnUc": 68.51, - "onUc": -17.13 + "pay": 240, + "notOnUc": 75, + "onUc": -8 }, { - "pay": 260.0, - "notOnUc": 60.87, - "onUc": -15.22 + "pay": 247, + "notOnUc": 68, + "onUc": -8 }, { - "pay": 280.0, - "notOnUc": 49.35, - "onUc": -12.34 + "pay": 260, + "notOnUc": 61, + "onUc": -7 }, { - "pay": 300.0, - "notOnUc": 37.83, - "onUc": -9.46 + "pay": 280, + "notOnUc": 49, + "onUc": -6 }, { - "pay": 320.0, - "notOnUc": 26.31, - "onUc": -6.58 + "pay": 300, + "notOnUc": 38, + "onUc": -4 }, { - "pay": 340.0, - "notOnUc": 14.79, - "onUc": -3.7 + "pay": 320, + "notOnUc": 26, + "onUc": -3 }, { - "pay": 360.0, - "notOnUc": 3.27, - "onUc": -0.82 + "pay": 340, + "notOnUc": 15, + "onUc": -2 }, { - "pay": 365.68, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 360, + "notOnUc": 3, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 365.69, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 366, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 380.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 380, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 }, { - "pay": 400.0, - "notOnUc": 0.0, - "onUc": 0.0 + "pay": 400, + "notOnUc": 0, + "onUc": 0 } ], "markers": [ { - "x": 234.0, + "x": 234, "label": "Weekly Earnings Limit" }, { - "x": 246.73, + "x": 247, "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "x": 365.68, + "x": 366, "label": "Allowance runs out" } ], "yLabel": "Change in net income a week", "format": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2, - "separator": true + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true, + "signed": true }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2, + "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast; Budget 2026." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described below; Budget 2026." } ``` -Carer 1 gains most just above the limit: £81.23 a week at £234.01. The gain falls to zero at £365.69. Carer 2 loses throughout the taper range: by £17.13 a week from £234.01 to £246.73, and by less above that. Below £246.73, each £1 of pay removes £1 of allowance, so pay plus allowance stays at £332.37 and the tax on the allowance does not change. Above £246.73, the loss is the 20% income tax on the allowance, which shrinks as the allowance falls. +Carer 1 gains most just above the limit, about £80 a week at £235, and the gain falls to zero at £366. Carer 2 loses throughout the taper range: by about £8 a week up to £247, and by less above that. + +Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full ([Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, each £1 of extra allowance takes £1 off Universal Credit. Carer's Allowance is also [taxable](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits), and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below about £247 of pay, pay plus allowance is about £332 a week, above the Personal Allowance, and above £247 all of the allowance is taxed. + +Universal Credit deducts from employed earnings the income tax paid in respect of the employment ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)). HMRC says that tax on taxable state benefits is [usually taken automatically from a person's other income](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/how-you-pay-income-tax), and that a tax code can take account of taxable state benefits. For an employee whose tax code takes account of Carer's Allowance, the tax on the allowance is part of the PAYE taken from pay, and so lowers earnings for Universal Credit. Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax, so a carer on Universal Credit loses 45% of the tax on the extra allowance: about £8 a week at £240, £4 at £300 and £2 at £330. + +This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. + +Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. ## The share of each extra £1 kept @@ -417,35 +419,35 @@ Carer 1 gains most just above the limit: £81.23 a week at £234.01. The gain fa ], "data": [ { - "pay": 150.0, + "pay": 150, "notOnUcWithout": 80.0, "notOnUcWith": 80.0, - "onUcWithout": 25.0, - "onUcWith": 25.0 + "onUcWithout": 36.0, + "onUcWith": 36.0 }, { - "pay": 234.0, + "pay": 234, "notOnUcWithout": 100.0, "notOnUcWith": 0.0, "onUcWithout": 45.0, "onUcWith": 45.0 }, { - "pay": 246.73, + "pay": 247, "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, "notOnUcWith": 14.4, "onUcWithout": 32.4, - "onUcWith": 46.8 + "onUcWith": 38.9 }, { - "pay": 365.68, + "pay": 366, "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, "notOnUcWith": 72.0, "onUcWithout": 32.4, "onUcWith": 32.4 }, { - "pay": 400.0, + "pay": 400, "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, "notOnUcWith": 72.0, "onUcWithout": 32.4, @@ -454,67 +456,58 @@ Carer 1 gains most just above the limit: £81.23 a week at £234.01. The gain fa ], "markers": [ { - "x": 234.0, + "x": 234, "label": "Weekly Earnings Limit" }, { - "x": 246.73, + "x": 247, "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "x": 365.68, + "x": 366, "label": "Allowance runs out" } ], - "yLabel": "Pence kept per extra £1", + "yLabel": "Share of each extra £1 kept", "format": { - "suffix": "p", + "suffix": "%", "decimals": 1 }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2, + "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast; Budget 2026." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described below; Budget 2026." } ``` -Without the taper, carer 1 keeps 80p of each extra £1 of pay up to the limit: the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance, so pay above £148.36 a week is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, carer 1 keeps all of each extra £1 up to £246.73 and 72p above it. With the taper, carer 1 keeps nothing of each extra £1 from £234 to £246.73, because the allowance falls by the same £1. From £246.73 to £365.68, carer 1 keeps 14.4p: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. This is an effective marginal tax rate of 85.6%, against 28% without the taper. - -The chart leaves out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, carer 1's net income falls by £80.24 when pay rises from £234 to £235; with the taper, it does not change. - -Carer 2 keeps 25p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to £246.73, with or without the taper. From £246.73 to £365.68, carer 2 keeps 46.8p with the taper, against 32.4p without. Universal Credit withdraws 55p of each extra £1 of earnings after the income tax and National Insurance that it deducts. With the taper, the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as pay rises, so carer 2 keeps more of each extra £1 in this range. - -## The Universal Credit interaction - -Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, the taper replaces £1 of Universal Credit with £1 of Carer's Allowance. The allowance is taxable, and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below £246.73 of pay, pay plus allowance is £332.37, above the Personal Allowance, and above £246.73 all of the allowance is taxed. A carer on Universal Credit therefore loses from the taper. +Without the taper, carer 1 keeps 80p of each extra £1 of pay up to the limit: the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance, so pay above about £148 a week is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, carer 1 keeps all of each extra £1 up to about £247 and 72p above it. With the taper, carer 1 keeps nothing of each extra £1 from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1. From £247 to £366, carer 1 keeps 14.4p: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. This is an effective marginal tax rate of 85.6%, against 28% without the taper. -PolicyEngine UK shows the full income tax on the allowance as a loss: up to £17.13 a week, or £890.68 a year, for carer 2. When it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earned income, PolicyEngine UK counts only the tax on the pay itself, so it does not take the PAYE on the allowance off Universal Credit earned income. In practice, HMRC usually collects the tax on Carer's Allowance through the tax code for the carer's job. The tax deducted from pay then rises, earned income for Universal Credit falls, and Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax. The loss in practice would therefore be about 45% of the tax: about £7.71 a week at £240 (£400.81 a year), £4.26 at £300 and £2.31 at £330. Either way, carer 2 does not gain. +The chart leaves out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, carer 1's net income falls by about £80 when pay rises from £234 to £235; with the taper, it does not change. -The same applies without the taper. In PolicyEngine UK, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235, the allowance stops and net income rises by £17.58. +Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, carer 2 keeps 38.9p with the taper, against 32.4p without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, as the start date is not yet set. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, as the start date is not yet set. | £ million | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | | Higher Carer's Allowance | 77.8 | 158.8 | -| Lower Universal Credit | −38.8 | −79.9 | +| Lower Universal Credit | −35.0 | −72.2 | | Higher income tax | −15.3 | −31.6 | -| **Net cost** | **23.7** | **47.3** | -| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 39.0 | 78.9 | +| **Net cost** | **27.5** | **55.0** | +| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 42.8 | 86.6 | -Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. +Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. The current-law limit setting does not change the cost. -About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 carers who benefit. +About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. -Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £39.0 million in 2030-31 and £78.9 million in 2031-32, is close to the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The Treasury's figures appear to leave out the extra income tax. This is our inference: the costing mentions only the interaction with Universal Credit. +Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. Its costing does include a behavioural response, in which some carers increase their earnings or enter work, that lowers the cost. Our model has no such response. These estimates have important limits: -- Our estimate assumes that carers do not change how much they work. In the Treasury's costing, a labour supply response lowers the cost. - The survey sample has no carers in Wales whom the taper affects, so we estimate none there, against the Treasury's 3,000. - The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. @@ -523,13 +516,14 @@ These estimates have important limits: - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out earnings for the limit as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. -- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to £234 with and without the taper, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates use PolicyEngine UK's own limit, which gives the same cost, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below £234 under either limit. -- Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny (£98.3729 a week in 2031-32). +- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples and the population estimates, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. This does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit. +- The worked examples and the population estimates both count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard: branch `carers-taper-limit-rule`, built on pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026` at `ad32af7f`, at commit `004c5281`. The next commit, `38163ede`, changes only the modifier's documentation. The branch differs from #290 in the limit: #290 moves 16 × £13.21 on with average earnings, while the branch uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard: branch `carers-taper-limit-rule`, built on pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026` at `ad32af7f`, at commit `004c5281`. The next commit, `38163ede`, changes only the modifier's documentation. The branch differs from #290 in the limit: #290 moves the April 2027 limit (16 hours at that year's National Living Wage) on with average earnings and does not round it, while the branch uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit is set to £234 on both sides. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps, and in 1p steps around £234, £246.73 and £365.68. The charts plot the points where the schedules change slope, and a point every £20. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does, with PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit set to the government's rule. Both sides also use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 5f9deb230f6b863fcc750f8308a82136870c4653 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:52:42 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 20/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: follow the PTA post's title area The description, opening paragraph and first section heading take the shape of the Pension Tax Allowance post: what the measure does and from when, then how it works and passes through to other programmes; "This post explains how the taper works and shows its effect on example carers"; and "What the taper does". No figures change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 6 +++--- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 3fc1fdf4b..f243ce04f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced that carers who earn more than the Carer's Allowance earnings limit will no longer lose the whole allowance. From a date within 2030-31, the allowance will instead fall by £1 for each £1 of weekly earnings above the limit, in England and Wales. This post explains the rules and shows their effect on two example carers in 2031-32, the first full year of the taper, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. It ends with PolicyEngine's estimate of the cost. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a taper for Carer's Allowance: carers who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit will no longer lose the whole allowance, which will instead fall by £1 for each £1 of weekly earnings above the limit. The taper applies in England and Wales from a date within 2030-31. This post explains how the taper works and shows its effect on example carers in 2031-32, the first full year of the taper, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. It ends with PolicyEngine's estimate of the cost. Key figures for 2031-32: @@ -10,9 +10,9 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses: about £8 a week at £240, once the tax on the allowance is deducted from earnings for Universal Credit, as we explain below. - The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32. We estimate a net cost of £27.5 million and £55.0 million. -## What the Budget announced +## What the taper does -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) (paragraph 6.13) and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) describe the measure: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the taper among its policy decisions (paragraph 6.13), and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) set out the rules. The taper has six parts: 1. **The earnings limit.** Carer's Allowance is not paid for a week in which the carer's earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit. The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage. Since April 2025, the government has set the limit at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week in April 2025 ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). 2. **The taper.** Above the limit, the allowance is withdrawn at a rate of 100%: it falls by £1 for each £1 of earnings above the limit, instead of being lost in full. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index c71d9e5dd..afa8b4d78 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper, step by step", - "description": "From a date within 2030-31, carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Carer's Allowance earnings limit will lose \u00a31 of the allowance for each \u00a31 above it, instead of the whole allowance. We show how the taper works for two example carers in 2031-32, why a carer on Universal Credit loses, and what it costs.", + "description": "From a date within 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "benefit"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], From 3abf33c4bf66c2b95e3daecc57750fb2ff69d179 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:06:32 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 21/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: explain today's rules, show each step of the examples MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - New section on how Carer's Allowance works today: who qualifies, the rate, tax, Universal Credit and the carer element, overlapping benefits, and the weekly earnings test that removes the whole allowance 1p above the limit. "What the taper does" now says what changes (above the limit only, £1 for £1) and what doesn't. - Household tables rebuilt in parts with +, − and = rows: the earnings test, Universal Credit (carer 2) and net income, each followed by a walk through one column. The text explains the two income tax figures and the Universal Credit adjustment. - The Treasury comparison now says plainly that ours is a static estimate and the Treasury's includes behavioural responses, which could move the gap either way. - Tags: uk and policy. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 159 +++++++++++++----- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 116 insertions(+), 45 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index f243ce04f..85534d460 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -8,19 +8,33 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax and National Insurance. For an employee with no pension contributions, the allowance runs out at gross pay of £366 a week. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses: about £8 a week at £240, once the tax on the allowance is deducted from earnings for Universal Credit, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32. We estimate a net cost of £27.5 million and £55.0 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. + +## How Carer's Allowance works today + +Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a disability. The main rules are: + +- **Who qualifies.** The carer spends at least 35 hours a week caring for someone who gets a qualifying disability benefit, such as Attendance Allowance or the daily living part of Personal Independence Payment. The carer must be 16 or over and not in full-time education ([GOV.UK, Carer's Allowance eligibility](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility)). +- **How much.** The allowance is about £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). PolicyEngine UK projects about £98 a week in 2031-32. +- **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income is above the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). +- **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). +- **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). +- **The earnings test.** A carer whose earnings in the week before are above the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax, National Insurance and expenses, with half of any pension contributions deducted ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). +- **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose earnings for the limit are even 1p above the limit loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". ## What the taper does -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the taper among its policy decisions (paragraph 6.13), and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) set out the rules. The taper has six parts: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the taper among its policy decisions (paragraph 6.13), and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) set out the rules. The taper changes only the earnings test: -1. **The earnings limit.** Carer's Allowance is not paid for a week in which the carer's earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit. The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage. Since April 2025, the government has set the limit at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week in April 2025 ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). -2. **The taper.** Above the limit, the allowance is withdrawn at a rate of 100%: it falls by £1 for each £1 of earnings above the limit, instead of being lost in full. -3. **Earnings.** The test counts net earnings: gross pay less income tax, National Insurance and half of any pension contributions ([Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). +1. **Above the limit.** Earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose earnings for the limit are above the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. +2. **At or below the limit.** Nothing changes: a carer at or below the limit keeps the full allowance, with or without the taper. +3. **The limit.** The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage, the rule above: £228 a week in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32 on the OBR's forecast. 4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. 5. **When.** The taper begins within the 2030-31 financial year, on a date still to be confirmed. 6. **Who.** The government estimates that around 48,000 people benefit in 2030-31, including people who become newly entitled, of whom around 3,000 live in Wales ([Budget 2026 data sources](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1e9a2460c1346f7be77ff/Budget_2026_-_Data_Sources.pdf), page 30). +Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment and its effect on Universal Credit and on overlapping benefits stay as they are. + | Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly earnings for the limit of | | -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -----------------------------------------------: | | 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | @@ -28,7 +42,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. -The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. +The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses, which our own estimate below does not. | £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | ----------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | @@ -39,51 +53,106 @@ The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 mil The examples follow two carers in the West Midlands in 2031-32. Each is 40, works as an employee with no pension contributions, and cares for 35 hours a week for a parent aged 72 who receives Attendance Allowance and lives in a separate household. Household net income is therefore the carer's own. - **Carer 1** owns their home outright, has no housing costs and does not claim Universal Credit. -- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The award includes the carer element, £55 a week, and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. +- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The maximum award, before income is taken into account, is about £330 a week: the standard allowance, the carer element (£55 a week) and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. -Each table starts from gross pay and works out earnings for the limit. At or below the £234 limit, a carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. Above it, the allowance is £0 without the taper and the full rate less the excess with it. Net income is gross pay less income tax and National Insurance, plus Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit, less the TV licence fee (£180 a year). +Each carer has a table for the earnings test (Part A) and one for net income; carer 2 also has a table for Universal Credit. The tables keep pence. PolicyEngine UK calculates in fractions of a penny, so in some columns a total differs by 1p from the sum of the rounded rows above it. The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 × the National Living Wage rounded up to the next pound (£234 in 2031-32), not the £204 that PolicyEngine UK holds after 2026-27. So for carers earning between £204 and £234, the amounts with and without the taper differ from those on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, while the measure's cost and each household's change are the same either way. ### Carer 1: not on Universal Credit -| Weekly amounts | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ----------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| Income tax and NI on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £3.72 | £9.32 | £14.92 | £23.32 | -| Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Excess over the £234 limit | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance without the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| Income tax without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| Income tax with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| Net income without the taper | £284.58 | £308.58 | £236.54 | £252.82 | £267.22 | £281.62 | £303.22 | -| Net income with the taper | £284.58 | £308.58 | £311.78 | £313.70 | £316.58 | £319.46 | £323.78 | -| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **+£75.24** | **+£60.87** | **+£49.35** | **+£37.83** | **+£20.55** | - -At £240 a week, earnings for the limit are £240, £6 above the limit, so the taper pays the full rate less £6, about £92 a week. Carer's Allowance is taxable, and with it the carer's income is above the £12,830 Personal Allowance, so income tax rises by about £17 and net income by about £75. At £330 a week, income tax and National Insurance on the pay leave earnings for the limit of about £307, so the allowance is about £26 and net income rises by about £21. At £200 and £230, earnings are at or below the limit, and nothing changes. +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| = Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | +| Earnings above the limit (earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | + +Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week, earnings for the limit are below £234, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay is below the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so nothing is taken off and earnings for the limit are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. + +| Part B: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | +| = Net income | £284.58 | £308.58 | £236.54 | £252.82 | £267.22 | £281.62 | £303.22 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £332.37 | £336.09 | £341.69 | £347.29 | £355.69 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | +| = Net income | £284.58 | £308.58 | £311.78 | £313.70 | £316.58 | £319.46 | £323.78 | +| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **+£75.24** | **+£60.87** | **+£49.35** | **+£37.83** | **+£20.55** | + +Part B works out what the carer has to live on. The income tax in Part A is the tax on the pay alone, as the earnings test counts it: the tax that PAYE would take if the pay were the carer's only income. The income tax in Part B is the tax actually due on pay plus Carer's Allowance, which is taxable. The difference between them is the tax on the allowance. At £240 a week with the taper, pay plus allowance is about £332, above the Personal Allowance, so income tax of about £17 is due, though none is due on the pay alone. Net income rises by the extra allowance less that tax, about £75 a week. ### Carer 2: on Universal Credit -| Weekly amounts | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ----------------------------------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| Income tax and NI on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £3.72 | £9.32 | £14.92 | £23.32 | -| Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Excess over the £234 limit | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance without the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| Income tax deducted from earnings for UC, without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| Income tax deducted from earnings for UC, with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| Universal Credit without the taper | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | -| Universal Credit with the taper | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | -| Income tax without the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| Income tax with the taper | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| Net income without the taper | £411.55 | £422.35 | £434.20 | £441.53 | £448.01 | £454.49 | £464.21 | -| Net income with the taper | £411.55 | £422.35 | £426.49 | £434.68 | £442.45 | £450.23 | £461.89 | -| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **−£7.71** | **−£6.85** | **−£5.55** | **−£4.26** | **−£2.31** | - -At £240 a week, carer 2 gets the same extra allowance as carer 1, about £92 a week, and Universal Credit counts all of it as unearned income. The allowance also adds about £17 of income tax. In these examples, that tax is deducted from carer 2's earnings for Universal Credit, as PAYE on the job (see below), so Universal Credit gives back 55% of it, about £9. Universal Credit falls by about £83 in all, from £198 to £115 a week, and net income falls by about £8. +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| = Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | +| Earnings above the limit (earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | + +Carer 2's earnings test is the same as carer 1's: at £240 a week, the taper gives about £92 a week of allowance where today there is none. + +| Part B: Universal Credit, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Maximum award | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | +| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £189.67 | £213.67 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| − 55% of earned income | £104.32 | £117.52 | £132.00 | £140.96 | £148.88 | £156.80 | £168.68 | +| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| = Universal Credit | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Maximum award | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | +| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £189.67 | £213.67 | £222.87 | £241.07 | £258.35 | £275.63 | £301.55 | +| − 55% of earned income | £104.32 | £117.52 | £122.58 | £132.59 | £142.09 | £151.59 | £165.85 | +| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| = Universal Credit | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | + +Universal Credit starts from the maximum award and takes off 55% of earned income and all of the Carer's Allowance. At £240 a week without the taper, earned income is the full £240, because no tax or National Insurance is due, so Universal Credit is about £330 − £132 = £198. With the taper, the allowance adds about £17 of income tax. In these examples, that tax counts as tax deducted from pay, so earned income falls to about £223, 55% of it is about £123, and Universal Credit is about £330 − £123 − £92 = £115. + +This is our Universal Credit adjustment, explained below. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on its own deducts only the tax on the pay alone from earned income, which is £0 at £240, so it would show Universal Credit about £9 lower with the taper. + +| Part C: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | +| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | +| = Net income | £411.55 | £422.35 | £434.20 | £441.53 | £448.01 | £454.49 | £464.21 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £332.37 | £336.09 | £341.69 | £347.29 | £355.69 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | +| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | +| = Net income | £411.55 | £422.35 | £426.49 | £434.68 | £442.45 | £450.23 | £461.89 | +| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **−£7.71** | **−£6.85** | **−£5.55** | **−£4.26** | **−£2.31** | + +Carer 2's net income falls by about £8 a week at £240: the allowance adds about £92, Universal Credit falls by about £83, and income tax rises by about £17. ## Carer's Allowance by pay @@ -490,7 +559,7 @@ Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, as the start date is not yet set. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, as the start date is not yet set. | £ million | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | @@ -504,7 +573,9 @@ Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the high About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. -Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. Its costing does include a behavioural response, in which some carers increase their earnings or enter work, that lowers the cost. Our model has no such response. +Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. + +The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. These estimates have important limits: diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index afa8b4d78..0aa9e0873 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper, step by step", "description": "From a date within 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "benefit"], + "tags": ["uk", "policy"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], "filename": "carers-allowance-taper.md", "image": "carers-allowance-taper/cover.webp" From 14dee350845917feeb2a15778fd76b18828f55b9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:18:28 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 22/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: the taper starts at some point in 2030-31 The government hasn't set the start date, so the opening, the population section and the posts.json description say "at some point in 2030-31". "What the taper does" keeps the one statement that the date will be confirmed later, quoting the policy costings and the Budget's reference to a new IT system. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 6 +++--- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 85534d460..dd57394a8 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a taper for Carer's Allowance: carers who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit will no longer lose the whole allowance, which will instead fall by £1 for each £1 of weekly earnings above the limit. The taper applies in England and Wales from a date within 2030-31. This post explains how the taper works and shows its effect on example carers in 2031-32, the first full year of the taper, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. It ends with PolicyEngine's estimate of the cost. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a taper for Carer's Allowance: carers who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit will no longer lose the whole allowance, which will instead fall by £1 for each £1 of weekly earnings above the limit. The taper applies in England and Wales from some point in 2030-31. This post explains how the taper works and shows its effect on example carers in 2031-32, the first full year of the taper, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. It ends with PolicyEngine's estimate of the cost. Key figures for 2031-32: @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 2. **At or below the limit.** Nothing changes: a carer at or below the limit keeps the full allowance, with or without the taper. 3. **The limit.** The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage, the rule above: £228 a week in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32 on the OBR's forecast. 4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. -5. **When.** The taper begins within the 2030-31 financial year, on a date still to be confirmed. +5. **When.** The taper starts at some point in 2030-31. The government will confirm the date later: the costings say the measure "will begin within the 2030-31 financial year, with a precise start date confirmed in due course", and the Budget says the taper will be implemented "following the development of a new IT system". 6. **Who.** The government estimates that around 48,000 people benefit in 2030-31, including people who become newly entitled, of whom around 3,000 live in Wales ([Budget 2026 data sources](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1e9a2460c1346f7be77ff/Budget_2026_-_Data_Sources.pdf), page 30). Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment and its effect on Universal Credit and on overlapping benefits stay as they are. @@ -559,7 +559,7 @@ Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, as the start date is not yet set. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. | £ million | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 0aa9e0873..67c6a8911 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper, step by step", - "description": "From a date within 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", + "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], From ac461f1620687ebc84e52f3cae4f422620b4259b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:21:03 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 23/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: say "net earnings" instead of "earnings for the limit" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The earnings test section defines net earnings once (pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses and half of any pension contributions). The key figures say where the allowance runs out in those terms (£333 a week of net earnings, about £366 of gross pay), and the other sentences and the household table labels use "net earnings". No figures change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 63 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 31 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index dd57394a8..5c83cd5e4 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -4,8 +4,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - The Weekly Earnings Limit is 16 hours at the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 a week, on the OBR's forecast for April 2031. - PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98 a week. -- Under current rules, a carer whose earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit, so a carer with earnings for the limit of £333 a week or more gets none. -- Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax and National Insurance. For an employee with no pension contributions, the allowance runs out at gross pay of £366 a week. +- Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses: about £8 a week at £240, once the tax on the allowance is deducted from earnings for Universal Credit, as we explain below. - The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. @@ -19,14 +18,14 @@ Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a d - **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income is above the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). - **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). - **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). -- **The earnings test.** A carer whose earnings in the week before are above the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). Earnings for the limit are pay after income tax, National Insurance and expenses, with half of any pension contributions deducted ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). -- **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose earnings for the limit are even 1p above the limit loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". +- **The earnings test.** A carer whose net earnings in the week before are above the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). The test counts net earnings: pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses, and half of any pension contributions ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). +- **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose net earnings are even 1p above the limit loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". ## What the taper does The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the taper among its policy decisions (paragraph 6.13), and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) set out the rules. The taper changes only the earnings test: -1. **Above the limit.** Earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose earnings for the limit are above the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. +1. **Above the limit.** Net earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose net earnings are above the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. 2. **At or below the limit.** Nothing changes: a carer at or below the limit keeps the full allowance, with or without the taper. 3. **The limit.** The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage, the rule above: £228 a week in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32 on the OBR's forecast. 4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. @@ -35,10 +34,10 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment and its effect on Universal Credit and on overlapping benefits stay as they are. -| Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly earnings for the limit of | -| -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -----------------------------------------------: | -| 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | -| 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98 | £333 or more | +| Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly net earnings of | +| -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -------------------------------------: | +| 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | +| 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98 | £333 or more | The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. @@ -61,18 +60,18 @@ The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 ### Carer 1: not on Universal Credit -| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| = Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | -| Earnings above the limit (earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| = Net earnings for the test | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | +| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week, earnings for the limit are below £234, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay is below the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so nothing is taken off and earnings for the limit are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. +Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week of gross pay, net earnings are below £234, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay is below the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so nothing is taken off and net earnings are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. | Part B: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | | ---------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | @@ -98,16 +97,16 @@ Part B works out what the carer has to live on. The income tax in Part A is the ### Carer 2: on Universal Credit -| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| = Earnings for the limit | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | -| Earnings above the limit (earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | +| = Net earnings for the test | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | +| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | Carer 2's earnings test is the same as carer 1's: at £240 a week, the taper gives about £92 a week of allowance where today there is none. @@ -296,7 +295,7 @@ Carer 2's net income falls by about £8 a week at £240: the allowance adds abou } ``` -Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98 to zero as soon as earnings pass £234. With the taper, it falls by £1 for each £1 of pay up to about £247 a week, where income tax (above the £12,830 Personal Allowance) and National Insurance on the pay begin. Above that, each extra £1 of gross pay adds 72p to earnings for the limit, after 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance, so the allowance falls by 72p. It runs out at £366 a week. +Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98 to zero as soon as net earnings pass £234. With the taper, it falls by £1 for each £1 of pay up to about £247 a week, where income tax (above the £12,830 Personal Allowance) and National Insurance on the pay begin. Above that, each extra £1 of gross pay adds 72p to net earnings, after 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance, so the allowance falls by 72p. It runs out at £366 a week. ## Net income and Universal Credit @@ -586,7 +585,7 @@ These estimates have important limits: - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. -- PolicyEngine UK works out earnings for the limit as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. +- PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples and the population estimates, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. This does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit. - The worked examples and the population estimates both count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. From 97a91d7d36dd71c54690024410a97c3063a47dec Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:24:30 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 24/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: explain the projected rate; reword the UC key figure MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Where the rate is first given: £86 a week in 2026-27 (GOV.UK benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027), then PolicyEngine UK's projection, rising each April with the previous September's CPI on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the Treasury's indexation assumptions do (policy costings, Annex A): £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. The later rates are marked as projections. - The key figure on Universal Credit now says the loss applies to a carer who pays tax on the allowance, and why it is about £8 at £240. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 5c83cd5e4..0717fab25 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98 a week. - Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. -- Universal Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of Carer's Allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit loses: about £8 a week at £240, once the tax on the allowance is deducted from earnings for Universal Credit, as we explain below. +- Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. - The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a disability. The main rules are: - **Who qualifies.** The carer spends at least 35 hours a week caring for someone who gets a qualifying disability benefit, such as Attendance Allowance or the daily living part of Personal Independence Payment. The carer must be 16 or over and not in full-time education ([GOV.UK, Carer's Allowance eligibility](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility)). -- **How much.** The allowance is about £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). PolicyEngine UK projects about £98 a week in 2031-32. +- **How much.** The allowance is £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK, benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027)). Later rates are projections, not announced rates. PolicyEngine UK raises the rate each April by the previous September's CPI inflation, the basis on which the Treasury assumes Carer's Allowance rises ([policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf), Annex A, page 114, which also rounds to the nearest 5p; PolicyEngine UK does not round). On the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with rises of 3.5% in April 2027 and 3.4% in April 2028 and about 2% a year after that, the rate goes from £86 in 2026-27 to £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. - **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income is above the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). - **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). - **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). From 22049b4b7a93880dcb2bcf80c88f24b308bb4a8e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:26:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 25/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: whole pounds in the household tables, cost table's sign named MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Round every £ amount in the worked-example tables to whole pounds (Budget posts' check 7); the hourly National Living Wage, an input to 16 x the wage, keeps pence. - The note under the examples says a total can differ by £1 from its rounded rows. - Label the population table "£ million, cost to the Exchequer", since it shows costs as positive where the Table 6.1 table shows them as negative. No figure changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 152 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 76 insertions(+), 76 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 0717fab25..3627bcfcd 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -54,102 +54,102 @@ The examples follow two carers in the West Midlands in 2031-32. Each is 40, work - **Carer 1** owns their home outright, has no housing costs and does not claim Universal Credit. - **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The maximum award, before income is taken into account, is about £330 a week: the standard allowance, the carer element (£55 a week) and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. -Each carer has a table for the earnings test (Part A) and one for net income; carer 2 also has a table for Universal Credit. The tables keep pence. PolicyEngine UK calculates in fractions of a penny, so in some columns a total differs by 1p from the sum of the rounded rows above it. +Each carer has a table for the earnings test (Part A) and one for net income; carer 2 also has a table for Universal Credit. The tables round to whole pounds, so in some columns a total differs by £1 from the sum of the rounded rows above it. The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 × the National Living Wage rounded up to the next pound (£234 in 2031-32), not the £204 that PolicyEngine UK holds after 2026-27. So for carers earning between £204 and £234, the amounts with and without the taper differ from those on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, while the measure's cost and each household's change are the same either way. ### Carer 1: not on Universal Credit -| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| = Net earnings for the test | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | -| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0 | £0 | £0 | £3 | £7 | £11 | £17 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| = Net earnings for the test | £200 | £230 | £240 | £256 | £271 | £285 | £307 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | +| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0 | £0 | £6 | £22 | £37 | £51 | £73 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week of gross pay, net earnings are below £234, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay is below the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so nothing is taken off and net earnings are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. -| Part B: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ---------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | ----------: | -| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | -| = Net income | £284.58 | £308.58 | £236.54 | £252.82 | £267.22 | £281.62 | £303.22 | -| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £332.37 | £336.09 | £341.69 | £347.29 | £355.69 | -| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | -| = Net income | £284.58 | £308.58 | £311.78 | £313.70 | £316.58 | £319.46 | £323.78 | -| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **+£75.24** | **+£60.87** | **+£49.35** | **+£37.83** | **+£20.55** | +| Part B: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------- | -----: | -----: | -------: | -------: | -------: | -------: | -------: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298 | £328 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10 | £16 | £0 | £3 | £7 | £11 | £17 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| − TV licence | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | +| = Net income | £285 | £309 | £237 | £253 | £267 | £282 | £303 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298 | £328 | £332 | £336 | £342 | £347 | £356 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10 | £16 | £17 | £18 | £19 | £20 | £22 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| − TV licence | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | +| = Net income | £285 | £309 | £312 | £314 | £317 | £319 | £324 | +| **Change in net income** | **£0** | **£0** | **+£75** | **+£61** | **+£49** | **+£38** | **+£21** | Part B works out what the carer has to live on. The income tax in Part A is the tax on the pay alone, as the earnings test counts it: the tax that PAYE would take if the pay were the carer's only income. The income tax in Part B is the tax actually due on pay plus Carer's Allowance, which is taxable. The difference between them is the tax on the allowance. At £240 a week with the taper, pay plus allowance is about £332, above the Personal Allowance, so income tax of about £17 is due, though none is due on the pay alone. Net income rises by the extra allowance less that tax, about £75 a week. ### Carer 2: on Universal Credit -| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| = Net earnings for the test | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | £234.00 | -| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0.00 | £0.00 | £6.00 | £22.28 | £36.68 | £51.08 | £72.68 | -| Carer's Allowance today (£98.37 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98.37 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | +| Part A: the earnings test, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| − Income tax on the pay alone | £0 | £0 | £0 | £3 | £7 | £11 | £17 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| = Net earnings for the test | £200 | £230 | £240 | £256 | £271 | £285 | £307 | +| Weekly Earnings Limit | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | £234 | +| Net earnings above the limit (net earnings − £234, or £0) | £0 | £0 | £6 | £22 | £37 | £51 | £73 | +| Carer's Allowance today (£98 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | Carer 2's earnings test is the same as carer 1's: at £240 a week, the taper gives about £92 a week of allowance where today there is none. -| Part B: Universal Credit, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Maximum award | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | -| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £189.67 | £213.67 | £240.00 | £256.28 | £270.68 | £285.08 | £306.68 | -| − 55% of earned income | £104.32 | £117.52 | £132.00 | £140.96 | £148.88 | £156.80 | £168.68 | -| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| = Universal Credit | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | -| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Maximum award | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | £329.66 | -| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £189.67 | £213.67 | £222.87 | £241.07 | £258.35 | £275.63 | £301.55 | -| − 55% of earned income | £104.32 | £117.52 | £122.58 | £132.59 | £142.09 | £151.59 | £165.85 | -| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| = Universal Credit | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | +| Part B: Universal Credit, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Maximum award | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | +| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £190 | £214 | £240 | £256 | £271 | £285 | £307 | +| − 55% of earned income | £104 | £118 | £132 | £141 | £149 | £157 | £169 | +| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| = Universal Credit | £127 | £114 | £198 | £189 | £181 | £173 | £161 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Maximum award | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | £330 | +| Earned income, for the next row: gross pay − income tax (Part C) − NI | £190 | £214 | £223 | £241 | £258 | £276 | £302 | +| − 55% of earned income | £104 | £118 | £123 | £133 | £142 | £152 | £166 | +| − Carer's Allowance (£1 for £1) | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | +| = Universal Credit | £127 | £114 | £115 | £121 | £126 | £131 | £138 | Universal Credit starts from the maximum award and takes off 55% of earned income and all of the Carer's Allowance. At £240 a week without the taper, earned income is the full £240, because no tax or National Insurance is due, so Universal Credit is about £330 − £132 = £198. With the taper, the allowance adds about £17 of income tax. In these examples, that tax counts as tax deducted from pay, so earned income falls to about £223, 55% of it is about £123, and Universal Credit is about £330 − £123 − £92 = £115. This is our Universal Credit adjustment, explained below. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on its own deducts only the tax on the pay alone from earned income, which is £0 at £240, so it would show Universal Credit about £9 lower with the taper. -| Part C: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | -| ---------------------------------- | --------: | --------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | -| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £0.00 | £2.65 | £6.65 | £10.65 | £16.65 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £126.97 | £113.77 | £197.66 | £188.70 | £180.78 | £172.86 | £160.98 | -| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | -| = Net income | £411.55 | £422.35 | £434.20 | £441.53 | £448.01 | £454.49 | £464.21 | -| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | -| Gross pay | £200.00 | £230.00 | £240.00 | £260.00 | £280.00 | £300.00 | £330.00 | -| + Carer's Allowance | £98.37 | £98.37 | £92.37 | £76.09 | £61.69 | £47.29 | £25.69 | -| = Pay plus allowance | £298.37 | £328.37 | £332.37 | £336.09 | £341.69 | £347.29 | £355.69 | -| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10.33 | £16.33 | £17.13 | £17.87 | £18.99 | £20.11 | £21.79 | -| − Employee National Insurance | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £1.06 | £2.66 | £4.26 | £6.66 | -| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £126.97 | £113.77 | £114.71 | £120.98 | £125.88 | £130.77 | £138.12 | -| − TV licence | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | £3.46 | -| = Net income | £411.55 | £422.35 | £426.49 | £434.68 | £442.45 | £450.23 | £461.89 | -| **Change in net income** | **£0.00** | **£0.00** | **−£7.71** | **−£6.85** | **−£5.55** | **−£4.26** | **−£2.31** | +| Part C: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| ---------------------------------- | -----: | -----: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| **Without the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298 | £328 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10 | £16 | £0 | £3 | £7 | £11 | £17 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £127 | £114 | £198 | £189 | £181 | £173 | £161 | +| − TV licence | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | +| = Net income | £412 | £422 | £434 | £442 | £448 | £454 | £464 | +| **With the taper** | | | | | | | | +| Gross pay | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | +| + Carer's Allowance | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | +| = Pay plus allowance | £298 | £328 | £332 | £336 | £342 | £347 | £356 | +| − Income tax on pay plus allowance | £10 | £16 | £17 | £18 | £19 | £20 | £22 | +| − Employee National Insurance | £0 | £0 | £0 | £1 | £3 | £4 | £7 | +| + Universal Credit (Part B) | £127 | £114 | £115 | £121 | £126 | £131 | £138 | +| − TV licence | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | £3 | +| = Net income | £412 | £422 | £426 | £435 | £442 | £450 | £462 | +| **Change in net income** | **£0** | **£0** | **−£8** | **−£7** | **−£6** | **−£4** | **−£2** | Carer 2's net income falls by about £8 a week at £240: the allowance adds about £92, Universal Credit falls by about £83, and income tax rises by about £17. @@ -560,7 +560,7 @@ Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. -| £ million | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | +| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | | Higher Carer's Allowance | 77.8 | 158.8 | | Lower Universal Credit | −35.0 | −72.2 | From 75e446c8c699edfa496de09599d9423558a653c8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:43:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 26/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: population cost from the dashboard's run MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The net cost is now the dashboard's figure for the measure, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32 (budgetary_impact.csv, preview manifest revision 20; receipt names #290 at beae5998), in place of £27.5 million and £55.0 million, which included the Universal Credit PAYE adjustment the dashboard does not make. - The component table is the same run split into its parts (net matches the dashboard to the last digit); the Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit row and its comparison are cut. - The comparison with the Treasury is about 60%, not 69%. - The population run keeps the engine's £204 limit, as the dashboard does; setting it to the government's rule in both runs gives the same figures, which the post now says. - Reach (82,500, 82,900, 51%, none in Wales) is unchanged and confirmed by the run; the sample is 109 households, not fewer than 50. - Methodology cites #290 at beae5998, and 004c5281 for the examples, whose modifier code differs only in documentation and formatting. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 33 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 17 insertions(+), 16 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 3627bcfcd..fa2499816 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -558,42 +558,43 @@ Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, and unlike the worked examples, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204 and does not count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings. -| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | -| --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | -| Higher Carer's Allowance | 77.8 | 158.8 | -| Lower Universal Credit | −35.0 | −72.2 | -| Higher income tax | −15.3 | −31.6 | -| **Net cost** | **27.5** | **55.0** | -| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 42.8 | 86.6 | +| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | +| -------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | +| Higher Carer's Allowance | 78.5 | 160.1 | +| Lower Universal Credit | −39.2 | −80.6 | +| Higher income tax | −15.4 | −31.8 | +| **Net cost** | **23.8** | **47.6** | -Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. The current-law limit setting does not change the cost. +The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. + +Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. -Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. +Our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. These estimates have important limits: - The survey sample has no carers in Wales whom the taper affects, so we estimate none there, against the Treasury's 3,000. -- The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. +- The estimate rests on 109 households in the model's data, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. ## Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. -- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples and the population estimates, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. This does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit. -- The worked examples and the population estimates both count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. +- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard: branch `carers-taper-limit-rule`, built on pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026` at `ad32af7f`, at commit `004c5281`. The next commit, `38163ede`, changes only the modifier's documentation. The branch differs from #290 in the limit: #290 moves the April 2027 limit (16 hours at that year's National Living Wage) on with average earnings and does not round it, while the branch uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does, with PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit set to the government's rule. Both sides also use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From c1bec07679d725b845b89d7baf215e6c6dd3fa95 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:55:07 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 27/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: effective marginal tax rates MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The "share of each extra £1 kept" section becomes "Marginal tax rates", as in the PTA post: a one-sentence definition (100% minus the share kept), a table by gross pay band for carers on and off Universal Credit, with and without the taper, and the chart redrawn as effective marginal tax rates with the same series and colours. The rates come from 1p sweeps inside each band and match the £1-step figures. The £1 step at the limit is described in words, not plotted. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 63 +++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 36 insertions(+), 27 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index fa2499816..603383f5d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -450,13 +450,22 @@ This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on t Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. -## The share of each extra £1 kept +## Marginal tax rates + +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that the carer loses to income tax, employee National Insurance, the change in Carer's Allowance and the withdrawal of Universal Credit. It is 100% minus the share kept: a 72% rate means the carer keeps 28p of each extra £1. + +| Gross weekly pay | Not on UC, without the taper | Not on UC, with the taper | On UC, without the taper | On UC, with the taper | +| ---------------- | ---------------------------: | ------------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------: | +| £150 to £234 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% | +| £234 to £247 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | +| £247 to £366 | 28.0% | 85.6% | 67.6% | 61.1% | +| Above £366 | 28.0% | 28.0% | 67.6% | 67.6% | ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Share of each extra £1 of pay kept, 2031-32", - "subtitle": "Rise in weekly household net income for each extra £1 of gross weekly pay", + "title": "Effective marginal tax rate for a carer, 2031-32", + "subtitle": "Share of each extra £1 of gross pay lost to income tax, National Insurance, lower Carer's Allowance and lower Universal Credit", "xKey": "pay", "xLabel": "Gross weekly pay", "series": [ @@ -488,38 +497,38 @@ Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without t "data": [ { "pay": 150, - "notOnUcWithout": 80.0, - "notOnUcWith": 80.0, - "onUcWithout": 36.0, - "onUcWith": 36.0 + "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, + "notOnUcWith": 20.0, + "onUcWithout": 64.0, + "onUcWith": 64.0 }, { "pay": 234, - "notOnUcWithout": 100.0, - "notOnUcWith": 0.0, - "onUcWithout": 45.0, - "onUcWith": 45.0 + "notOnUcWithout": 0.0, + "notOnUcWith": 100.0, + "onUcWithout": 55.0, + "onUcWith": 55.0 }, { "pay": 247, - "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, - "notOnUcWith": 14.4, - "onUcWithout": 32.4, - "onUcWith": 38.9 + "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, + "notOnUcWith": 85.6, + "onUcWithout": 67.6, + "onUcWith": 61.1 }, { "pay": 366, - "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, - "notOnUcWith": 72.0, - "onUcWithout": 32.4, - "onUcWith": 32.4 + "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, + "notOnUcWith": 28.0, + "onUcWithout": 67.6, + "onUcWith": 67.6 }, { "pay": 400, - "notOnUcWithout": 72.0, - "notOnUcWith": 72.0, - "onUcWithout": 32.4, - "onUcWith": 32.4 + "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, + "notOnUcWith": 28.0, + "onUcWithout": 67.6, + "onUcWith": 67.6 } ], "markers": [ @@ -536,7 +545,7 @@ Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without t "label": "Allowance runs out" } ], - "yLabel": "Share of each extra £1 kept", + "yLabel": "Effective marginal tax rate", "format": { "suffix": "%", "decimals": 1 @@ -550,11 +559,11 @@ Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without t } ``` -Without the taper, carer 1 keeps 80p of each extra £1 of pay up to the limit: the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance, so pay above about £148 a week is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, carer 1 keeps all of each extra £1 up to about £247 and 72p above it. With the taper, carer 1 keeps nothing of each extra £1 from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1. From £247 to £366, carer 1 keeps 14.4p: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. This is an effective marginal tax rate of 85.6%, against 28% without the taper. +Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 20% up to the limit: the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance, so pay above about £148 a week is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, the rate is 0% up to about £247 and 28% above it, from 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance. With the taper, carer 1's rate is 100% from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1 that pay rises. From £247 to £366 it is 85.6%: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p of each extra £1, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. -The chart leaves out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, carer 1's net income falls by about £80 when pay rises from £234 to £235; with the taper, it does not change. +Carer 2's rate is 64% up to the limit and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. -Carer 2 keeps 36p of each extra £1 up to the limit and 45p from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, carer 2 keeps 38.9p with the taper, against 32.4p without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. +The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. ## Population estimates From 6561fc28c250cdc1013afcc2909fe91c789bba8b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:57:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 28/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: restore the survey-household count; spell out the limit - "Fewer than 50 survey households" was right: the 109 households in the model's data with a higher allowance are built from 44 survey households (Microcosm builds several records from one survey household), so the change in 75e446c8 is reverted. - The hourly National Living Wage keeps its pence in the limit table, so the paragraph under it now spells out 16 hours at that wage, rounded up to the next pound. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 603383f5d..a61b90629 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, i | 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | | 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98 | £333 or more | -The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. +The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Sixteen hours at £14.23 is just under £228 a week, and at £14.62 just under £234, so the limits, rounded up to the next pound, are £228 and £234. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses, which our own estimate below does not. @@ -589,7 +589,7 @@ The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Trea These estimates have important limits: - The survey sample has no carers in Wales whom the taper affects, so we estimate none there, against the Treasury's 3,000. -- The estimate rests on 109 households in the model's data, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. +- The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. ## Assumptions and limitations From 12b9291f1cb8c33ec98e9ce33e653f853d670de6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:01:23 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 29/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: marginal tax rates from PolicyEngine's marginal_tax_rate MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The band table and the chart now come from PolicyEngine UK's own marginal_tax_rate variable, as in the PTA post, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides. The chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay from £7,800 to £20,800 plus the points where the rates change, leaving out the two grid points whose £1 rise crosses one of them. The variable matches direct differences of household net income and the earlier £1-step figures; the definition and the method note say how the rate is measured. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 177 ++++++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 137 insertions(+), 40 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index a61b90629..d3646a37f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -452,7 +452,7 @@ Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without t ## Marginal tax rates -The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that the carer loses to income tax, employee National Insurance, the change in Carer's Allowance and the withdrawal of Universal Credit. It is 100% minus the share kept: a 72% rate means the carer keeps 28p of each extra £1. +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that the carer loses to income tax, employee National Insurance, the change in Carer's Allowance and the withdrawal of Universal Credit. It is 1 minus the change in household net income for a £1 rise in weekly gross pay, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, so it is 100% minus the share kept: a 72% rate means the carer keeps 28p of each extra £1. | Gross weekly pay | Not on UC, without the taper | Not on UC, with the taper | On UC, without the taper | On UC, with the taper | | ---------------- | ---------------------------: | ------------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------: | @@ -495,41 +495,138 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t } ], "data": [ - { - "pay": 150, - "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, - "notOnUcWith": 20.0, - "onUcWithout": 64.0, - "onUcWith": 64.0 - }, - { - "pay": 234, - "notOnUcWithout": 0.0, - "notOnUcWith": 100.0, - "onUcWithout": 55.0, - "onUcWith": 55.0 - }, - { - "pay": 247, - "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, - "notOnUcWith": 85.6, - "onUcWithout": 67.6, - "onUcWith": 61.1 - }, - { - "pay": 366, - "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, - "notOnUcWith": 28.0, - "onUcWithout": 67.6, - "onUcWith": 67.6 - }, - { - "pay": 400, - "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, - "notOnUcWith": 28.0, - "onUcWithout": 67.6, - "onUcWith": 67.6 - } + {"pay": 150.0, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 151.92, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 153.85, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 155.77, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 157.69, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 159.62, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 161.54, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 163.46, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 165.38, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 167.31, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 169.23, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 171.15, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 173.08, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 175.0, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 176.92, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 178.85, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 180.77, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, + {"pay": 182.69, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, 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386.54, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 388.46, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 390.38, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 392.31, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 394.23, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 396.15, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 398.08, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6}, + {"pay": 400.0, "notOnUcWithout": 28.0, "notOnUcWith": 28.0, "onUcWithout": 67.6, "onUcWith": 67.6} ], "markers": [ { @@ -537,11 +634,11 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t "label": "Weekly Earnings Limit" }, { - "x": 247, + "x": 246.73, "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "x": 366, + "x": 365.68, "label": "Allowance runs out" } ], @@ -555,7 +652,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described below; Budget 2026." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation (marginal_tax_rate), 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described above; Budget 2026." } ``` @@ -606,4 +703,4 @@ These estimates have important limits: We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 6a6a8839f18b7947bb74ba8143090a037c6847bc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:14:55 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 30/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: population figures with the UC adjustment; revert 75e446c8c for now (kept on carers-taper-post-dashboard-population) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit This reverts commit 75e446c8c. The population section goes back to our run with the Universal Credit adjustment and the current-law limit set to the government's rule in both runs (net cost £27.5 million and £55.0 million), and Methodology says so, with the dashboard's own run (£24 million and £48 million) in one sentence. Later commits are kept. To restore the dashboard's figures, revert this commit; the original is on carers-taper-post-dashboard-population. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 33 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index d3646a37f..5a9430b37 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, is £24 million and £48 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -652,7 +652,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation (marginal_tax_rate), 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described above; Budget 2026." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation, 2031-32, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with the Universal Credit adjustment described above; Budget 2026." } ``` @@ -664,22 +664,21 @@ The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the tape ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, and unlike the worked examples, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204 and does not count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. -| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | -| -------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | -| Higher Carer's Allowance | 78.5 | 160.1 | -| Lower Universal Credit | −39.2 | −80.6 | -| Higher income tax | −15.4 | −31.8 | -| **Net cost** | **23.8** | **47.6** | +| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | +| --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | +| Higher Carer's Allowance | 77.8 | 158.8 | +| Lower Universal Credit | −35.0 | −72.2 | +| Higher income tax | −15.3 | −31.6 | +| **Net cost** | **27.5** | **55.0** | +| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 42.8 | 86.6 | -The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. - -Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. +Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. The current-law limit setting does not change the cost. About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. -Our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. +Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. @@ -693,14 +692,14 @@ These estimates have important limits: - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. -- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. -- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples and the population estimates, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. This does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit. +- The worked examples and the population estimates both count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. We calculated the worked examples and the population estimates ourselves, with the modifier at commit `004c5281` (branch `carers-taper-limit-rule`), the same modifier code that #290 now carries, apart from documentation and formatting. The population figures are our run with the Universal Credit adjustment. The dashboard's own run, without the adjustment, gives a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does, with PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit set to the government's rule. Both sides also use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 2f2cbb788dcf6052648f4acca5720655911d1eeb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:20:21 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 31/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: dashboard's population figures, adjusted cost as a sensitivity MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Max's ruling (relayed by the coordinator, 28 Oct ~17:25Z: "Publish now, adjusted as sensitivity"): the population section and the key figures lead with the dashboard's £24 million and £48 million, and one sentence gives the cost with the PAYE adjustment (regulation 55(5)(b)), about £28 million and £55 million. The household examples keep the adjustment. This reverts 6a6a8839 (which reverted 75e446c8) and adds that sentence; the chart source wording from 6a6a8839 is kept. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 31 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 5a9430b37..7cf6140b6 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost is £27.5 million and £55.0 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -664,21 +664,22 @@ The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the tape ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. For consistency with the examples, we set the current-law limit to the government's rule on both sides (£228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32), and we apply the same Universal Credit adjustment for the PAYE on the allowance. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204. Unlike the worked examples, it does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)); with that adjustment, our calculation gives a net cost of about £28 million in 2030-31 and £55 million in 2031-32. -| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | -| --------------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | -| Higher Carer's Allowance | 77.8 | 158.8 | -| Lower Universal Credit | −35.0 | −72.2 | -| Higher income tax | −15.3 | −31.6 | -| **Net cost** | **27.5** | **55.0** | -| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 42.8 | 86.6 | +| £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | +| -------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | +| Higher Carer's Allowance | 78.5 | 160.1 | +| Lower Universal Credit | −39.2 | −80.6 | +| Higher income tax | −15.4 | −31.8 | +| **Net cost** | **23.8** | **47.6** | -Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. The current-law limit setting does not change the cost. +The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. + +Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. -Our net cost, £27.5 million in 2030-31 and £55.0 million in 2031-32, is 69% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, £42.8 million and £86.6 million, is 7% to 8% above the Treasury's figures. The Treasury's figures lie between the two; we cannot tell which items its costing includes. +Our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. @@ -692,14 +693,14 @@ These estimates have important limits: - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. -- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples and the population estimates, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. This does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit. -- The worked examples and the population estimates both count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. +- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. We calculated the worked examples and the population estimates ourselves, with the modifier at commit `004c5281` (branch `carers-taper-limit-rule`), the same modifier code that #290 now carries, apart from documentation and formatting. The population figures are our run with the Universal Credit adjustment. The dashboard's own run, without the adjustment, gives a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does, with PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit set to the government's rule. Both sides also use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From d1e8fb7e9d1d4ee5efb6373e521bd6025cd097e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:37:25 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 32/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: call the earnings limit a cliff in the key figures The key figure now says plainly that the current limit is a cliff, in the same terms as "The cliff" in the section on today's rules: even 1p above the limit loses the whole allowance for that week. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 7cf6140b6..239786b8e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - The Weekly Earnings Limit is 16 hours at the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 a week, on the OBR's forecast for April 2031. - PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98 a week. -- Under current rules, a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount loses the whole allowance. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. +- Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. - The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, is £24 million and £48 million. From e6cbf46b73ad8c6a2694cc2af17df72b182a93ec Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:43:25 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 33/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: cite policyengine.py 6.11.1, not a policyengine-uk version Methodology now opens with policyengine.py 6.11.1, which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data, and the sentences saying the model does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit name PolicyEngine UK as packaged in policyengine.py 6.11.1. No policyengine-uk version number is left in the post. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 8 ++++---- 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 239786b8e..9f25164e8 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ Carer 2's earnings test is the same as carer 1's: at £240 a week, the taper giv Universal Credit starts from the maximum award and takes off 55% of earned income and all of the Carer's Allowance. At £240 a week without the taper, earned income is the full £240, because no tax or National Insurance is due, so Universal Credit is about £330 − £132 = £198. With the taper, the allowance adds about £17 of income tax. In these examples, that tax counts as tax deducted from pay, so earned income falls to about £223, 55% of it is about £123, and Universal Credit is about £330 − £123 − £92 = £115. -This is our Universal Credit adjustment, explained below. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on its own deducts only the tax on the pay alone from earned income, which is £0 at £240, so it would show Universal Credit about £9 lower with the taper. +This is our Universal Credit adjustment, explained below. PolicyEngine UK on its own deducts only the tax on the pay alone from earned income, which is £0 at £240, so it would show Universal Credit about £9 lower with the taper. | Part C: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | | ---------------------------------- | -----: | -----: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | @@ -446,7 +446,7 @@ Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in f Universal Credit deducts from employed earnings the income tax paid in respect of the employment ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)). HMRC says that tax on taxable state benefits is [usually taken automatically from a person's other income](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/how-you-pay-income-tax), and that a tax code can take account of taxable state benefits. For an employee whose tax code takes account of Carer's Allowance, the tax on the allowance is part of the PAYE taken from pay, and so lowers earnings for Universal Credit. Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax, so a carer on Universal Credit loses 45% of the tax on the extra allowance: about £8 a week at £240, £4 at £300 and £2 at £330. -This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. +This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK, as packaged in policyengine.py 6.11.1, does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. @@ -694,13 +694,13 @@ These estimates have important limits: - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. -- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK, as packaged in policyengine.py 6.11.1, and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. +We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 3951d3def147cd9717e9ef42eebcde02549cbac8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:50:50 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 34/47] =?UTF-8?q?Carer's=20Allowance=20taper=20post:=20mar?= =?UTF-8?q?ginal=20rates=20from=20=C2=A30,=20three=20chart=20series,=20rou?= =?UTF-8?q?nded=20counts?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - The effective marginal tax rate chart starts at £0 a week, with a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, including £148.36, where pay plus the full allowance reaches the Personal Allowance. It shows three series, "Without the taper" (a carer not on Universal Credit), "With the taper, not on UC" and "With the taper, on UC", with a note pointing to the table for the on-UC rates without the taper. - The band table adds £0 to £148 and keeps all four columns; the text describes the step at £148. - Population counts are rounded to the nearest thousand (about 82,000 and 83,000). The comparison with the Treasury now says we find more carers above the limit and that Universal Credit and income tax take back much of the extra allowance. The Wales sentence in the limits is removed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 378 +++++++++++------- 1 file changed, 225 insertions(+), 153 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 9f25164e8..1e61e07b0 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -456,7 +456,8 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t | Gross weekly pay | Not on UC, without the taper | Not on UC, with the taper | On UC, without the taper | On UC, with the taper | | ---------------- | ---------------------------: | ------------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------: | -| £150 to £234 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% | +| £0 to £148 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | +| £148 to £234 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% | | £234 to £247 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | | £247 to £366 | 28.0% | 85.6% | 67.6% | 61.1% | | Above £366 | 28.0% | 28.0% | 67.6% | 67.6% | @@ -470,163 +471,235 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t "xLabel": "Gross weekly pay", "series": [ { - "key": "notOnUcWithout", - "name": "Not on UC, without the taper", + "key": "without", + "name": "Without the taper", "color": "quinary", "step": true }, { - "key": "notOnUcWith", - "name": "Not on UC, with the taper", + "key": "withNotOnUc", + "name": "With the taper, not on UC", "color": "primary", "step": true }, { - "key": "onUcWithout", - "name": "On UC, without the taper", - "color": "quaternary", - "step": true - }, - { - "key": "onUcWith", - "name": "On UC, with the taper", + "key": "withOnUc", + "name": "With the taper, on UC", "color": "secondary", "step": true } ], "data": [ - {"pay": 150.0, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, "onUcWithout": 64.0, "onUcWith": 64.0}, - {"pay": 151.92, "notOnUcWithout": 20.0, "notOnUcWith": 20.0, 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{"pay": 400.0, "without": 28.0, "withNotOnUc": 28.0, "withOnUc": 67.6} ], "markers": [ { @@ -656,9 +729,11 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t } ``` -Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 20% up to the limit: the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance, so pay above about £148 a week is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, the rate is 0% up to about £247 and 28% above it, from 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance. With the taper, carer 1's rate is 100% from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1 that pay rises. From £247 to £366 it is 85.6%: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p of each extra £1, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. +The "Without the taper" series is for a carer not on Universal Credit. The table above gives the rates without the taper for a carer on Universal Credit. + +Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 0% up to about £148 a week, where pay plus the full allowance reaches the Personal Allowance, and 20% from there to the limit, because the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance and pay above about £148 is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, the rate is 0% up to about £247 and 28% above it, from 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance. With the taper, carer 1's rate is 100% from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1 that pay rises. From £247 to £366 it is 85.6%: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p of each extra £1, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. -Carer 2's rate is 64% up to the limit and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. +Carer 2's rate is 55% up to about £148, from Universal Credit's 55% taper alone, 64% from there to the limit, once income tax starts, and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. @@ -677,16 +752,13 @@ The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. -About 82,500 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 82,900 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. Our count of people with a higher allowance is larger than the Treasury's 48,000 people who benefit. +About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. -Our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. +We find more carers just above the earnings limit than the Treasury does, about 82,000 against 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. The extra Carer's Allowance alone, £160 million in 2031-32, is about twice the Treasury's £80 million, but Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, so our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. -These estimates have important limits: - -- The survey sample has no carers in Wales whom the taper affects, so we estimate none there, against the Treasury's 3,000. -- The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. +The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. ## Assumptions and limitations From ecfb12beb6473543fe4884810c6efeabab9e2850 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 21:56:05 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 35/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: describe the model as the PTA post does Methodology now describes the taper as a structural reform of carers_allowance_pre_overlap whose rules and values match the dashboard's draft update, with the one difference in the worked examples (the Universal Credit PAYE adjustment), and says the population estimates are the dashboard's own run. The pull request and commit references and the repeat of the limit rule go. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 1e61e07b0..b18ba37a1 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -773,6 +773,6 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w ## Methodology -We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we applied the `carers_allowance_earnings_taper` modifier from PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (pull request #290 of `PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026`). It uses the OBR's National Living Wage forecast for each April and rounds the limit up to the next pound, which gives £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32. The population estimates are the dashboard's run at commit `beae5998`. We calculated the worked examples with the modifier at commit `004c5281`, whose code differs from `beae5998` only in documentation and formatting. +We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard; the one difference is in the worked examples, which also count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 2eb6958ad158a9cfb578edc0769401b0b97bdf02 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:00:08 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 36/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: name both differences in the examples; the rate at the limit MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Methodology says the worked examples differ from the dashboard in two ways: the current-law limit set to the government's rule, and the PAYE on the allowance counted against Universal Credit earnings. - The text under the marginal tax rate chart gives the rate for the single £1 at the limit without the taper: over 8,000% for carer 1 (8,124% in the engine) and negative for carer 2 (−716%), and says it depends on the size of the step. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index b18ba37a1..540e59109 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -735,7 +735,7 @@ Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 0% up to about £148 a week, where pay plus Carer 2's rate is 55% up to about £148, from Universal Credit's 55% taper alone, 64% from there to the limit, once income tax starts, and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. -The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. +The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. For that single £1 at the limit, the effective marginal tax rate is over 8,000% for carer 1 and negative for carer 2, whose net income rises; the figure depends on the size of the step, which is why the chart leaves that point out. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. ## Population estimates @@ -773,6 +773,6 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w ## Methodology -We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard; the one difference is in the worked examples, which also count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. +We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard; the worked examples differ in two ways: they set the current-law limit to the government's rule, and they count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. From 065d6edeee3c90e30bc163c80cbf3992b4d0d967 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:15:45 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 37/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: follow the Budget posts on main - Title: "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", as the PTA and fuel duty posts are now titled; slug and filename unchanged. - "Assumptions and limitations" and "Methodology" move under a final "Appendix", Methodology last. - Methodology opens with the policyengine package and PolicyEngine UK versions, as both posts do, and the sentences on what the model does not yet do name PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. - The first mention of the dashboard and the one in Methodology link to the Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 14 ++++++++------ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 540e59109..25fde6d8b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, is £24 million and £48 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -446,7 +446,7 @@ Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in f Universal Credit deducts from employed earnings the income tax paid in respect of the employment ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)). HMRC says that tax on taxable state benefits is [usually taken automatically from a person's other income](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/how-you-pay-income-tax), and that a tax code can take account of taxable state benefits. For an employee whose tax code takes account of Carer's Allowance, the tax on the allowance is part of the PAYE taken from pay, and so lowers earnings for Universal Credit. Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax, so a carer on Universal Credit loses 45% of the tax on the extra allowance: about £8 a week at £240, £4 at £300 and £2 at £330. -This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK, as packaged in policyengine.py 6.11.1, does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. +This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. @@ -760,19 +760,21 @@ The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Trea The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. -## Assumptions and limitations +## Appendix + +### Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. -- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK, as packaged in policyengine.py 6.11.1, and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. - Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. -## Methodology +### Methodology -We used policyengine.py (version 6.11.1), which packages PolicyEngine UK with its data. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard; the worked examples differ in two ways: they set the current-law limit to the government's rule, and they count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026); the worked examples differ in two ways: they set the current-law limit to the government's rule, and they count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index db573c0d3..8ea980c0d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ [ { - "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper, step by step", + "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy"], From 9773b73260bebadac85ed543f8593165b58ed518 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:27:48 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 38/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: drop the rate for the single step at the limit MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The text under the marginal tax rate chart no longer gives the rate for the £1 at the limit; it still says what each carer loses or gains there. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 25fde6d8b..1b03b7f8f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -735,7 +735,7 @@ Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 0% up to about £148 a week, where pay plus Carer 2's rate is 55% up to about £148, from Universal Credit's 55% taper alone, 64% from there to the limit, once income tax starts, and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. -The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. For that single £1 at the limit, the effective marginal tax rate is over 8,000% for carer 1 and negative for carer 2, whose net income rises; the figure depends on the size of the step, which is why the chart leaves that point out. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. +The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the taper, a carer whose net earnings rise from £234 to £235 a week loses the whole allowance, so for that one step carer 1 loses more than the £1 gained: net income falls by about £80. Carer 2's net income rises by about £8 at that step, because Universal Credit replaces most of the lost allowance and the tax on the allowance goes. With the taper, the step is like any other in the taper range. ## Population estimates From b19765d7055ed863899e0c0eb659ebdb8c267ab5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:32:36 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 39/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: review fixes from Max Ghenis and David Trimmer MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - How much: the 3.5% rise is September 2026's CPI; the 3.4% is the OBR's. - What the taper does: the Budget and costings describe no other change; the rest, including how net earnings are worked out, is our assumption. - Treasury costing: its behavioural responses are changes in hours worked, which we don't model, and take-up by the newly eligible, which we model at a fixed rate; the population section says the same. - New paragraph and limitation: a tapered award would stop the cared-for person's severe disability addition in Pension Credit (State Pension Credit Regulations 2002, Sch. I, para. 1(1)(a)(iii)), which neither the examples nor the population estimates include. - Population: carers on Universal Credit almost all lose a little; the Treasury comparison sets our gross cost and offsets against its net figure and the government's 48,000 who benefit. - Card description: a projected £234 limit; "whose net earnings are above". Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 15 +++++++++------ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 1b03b7f8f..614828cc0 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a disability. The main rules are: - **Who qualifies.** The carer spends at least 35 hours a week caring for someone who gets a qualifying disability benefit, such as Attendance Allowance or the daily living part of Personal Independence Payment. The carer must be 16 or over and not in full-time education ([GOV.UK, Carer's Allowance eligibility](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility)). -- **How much.** The allowance is £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK, benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027)). Later rates are projections, not announced rates. PolicyEngine UK raises the rate each April by the previous September's CPI inflation, the basis on which the Treasury assumes Carer's Allowance rises ([policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf), Annex A, page 114, which also rounds to the nearest 5p; PolicyEngine UK does not round). On the OBR's October 2026 forecast, with rises of 3.5% in April 2027 and 3.4% in April 2028 and about 2% a year after that, the rate goes from £86 in 2026-27 to £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. +- **How much.** The allowance is £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK, benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027)). Later rates are projections, not announced rates. PolicyEngine UK raises the rate each April by the previous September's CPI inflation, the basis on which the Treasury assumes Carer's Allowance rises ([policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf), Annex A, page 114, which also rounds to the nearest 5p; PolicyEngine UK does not round). With a rise of 3.5% in April 2027, September 2026's CPI inflation, and, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, 3.4% in April 2028 and about 2% a year after that, the rate goes from £86 in 2026-27 to £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. - **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income is above the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). - **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). - **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 5. **When.** The taper starts at some point in 2030-31. The government will confirm the date later: the costings say the measure "will begin within the 2030-31 financial year, with a precise start date confirmed in due course", and the Budget says the taper will be implemented "following the development of a new IT system". 6. **Who.** The government estimates that around 48,000 people benefit in 2030-31, including people who become newly entitled, of whom around 3,000 live in Wales ([Budget 2026 data sources](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1e9a2460c1346f7be77ff/Budget_2026_-_Data_Sources.pdf), page 30). -Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment and its effect on Universal Credit and on overlapping benefits stay as they are. +The Budget and the costings describe no other change. We assume that the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment, its effect on other benefits and the way net earnings are worked out (weekly, after tax, National Insurance and expenses) stay as they are. The Budget says a new IT system will "automatically adjust payments" for the taper (paragraph 3.20), but not how or over what period earnings will be measured. | Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly net earnings of | | -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -------------------------------------: | @@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Nothing else about Carer's Allowance changes: the caring conditions, the rate, i The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Sixteen hours at £14.23 is just under £228 a week, and at £14.62 just under £234, so the limits, rounded up to the next pound, are £228 and £234. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. -The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses, which our own estimate below does not. +The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses: changes in hours worked, which our own estimate below does not model, and take-up by people newly eligible, which it models at a fixed rate. | £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | ----------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | @@ -450,6 +450,8 @@ This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on t Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. +The taper can also affect the person cared for. Under current rules, Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability (£86 a week in 2026-27) is not paid while someone receives Carer's Allowance for caring for that person ([State Pension Credit Regulations 2002](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I), Schedule I, paragraph 1(1)(a)(iii)), and the severe disability premium in other benefits works the same way ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits)). Today a carer above the limit gets no allowance, so the person they care for can keep that amount. A tapered award would end it, and the Budget does not say whether this will change. Our examples show only the carer's household, and PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household, so neither the examples nor the population estimates include this. + ## Marginal tax rates The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that the carer loses to income tax, employee National Insurance, the change in Carer's Allowance and the withdrawal of Universal Credit. It is 1 minus the change in household net income for a £1 rise in weekly gross pay, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, so it is 100% minus the share kept: a 72% rate means the carer keeps 28p of each extra £1. @@ -752,11 +754,11 @@ The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. -About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain. +About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain: almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. -We find more carers just above the earnings limit than the Treasury does, about 82,000 against 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. The extra Carer's Allowance alone, £160 million in 2031-32, is about twice the Treasury's £80 million, but Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, so our net cost, £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, is about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. +We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The Treasury's figures also count the Universal Credit interaction, but it does not publish its gross cost. -The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has neither response, and its take-up follows the data's assumptions. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. +The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has no labour-supply response. It does include claims by carers whom the current limit keeps out: PolicyEngine's data assumes that 60% of them claim, which may differ from the Treasury's assumption. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. @@ -765,6 +767,7 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w ### Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. +- Neither the examples nor the population estimates include the effect on the person cared for. A tapered award would stop Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability, or the severe disability premium in other benefits, for the person cared for, but PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 8ea980c0d..4ee101e97 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", - "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales who earn more than the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the \u00a3234 limit and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", + "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], From 19214c33791c06c8771ff6038edf67bd29960310 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:46:24 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 40/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: publication time 18:46 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 3227a1efd..a8b606c75 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ { "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", - "date": "2026-10-28 18:30:00", + "date": "2026-10-28 18:46:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], "filename": "carers-allowance-taper.md", From 38dd66882629c9bd7bdfb9f5e4874fe8ece2a4cc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 22:51:15 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 41/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: drop "brings no gain" (Max's second option) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 614828cc0..70fa0dad5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -754,7 +754,7 @@ The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. -About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, for whom the higher allowance brings no gain: almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. +About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The Treasury's figures also count the Universal Credit interaction, but it does not publish its gross cost. From ca3f5d11a34d4cf3c1b6366b28193b288078ca19 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:37:15 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 42/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: the OBR's split of the Treasury figure; second-pass review points MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Treasury comparison: the Treasury's £40m and £80m round the OBR's £38m and £79m, which include £5m and £10m of extra block grant for Scotland; the rest is Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, with no entry for income tax (OBR, EFO October 2026, policy Table 1.1, measure 7). Before income tax ours is about a sixth more. The key figure names the block grant too. (Max Ghenis) - The severe disability addition ends with a tapered award unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element. - Methodology: pay from £0 (marginal rates) or £150 (other charts and tables) to £400. - Tag autumn-budget, as the triple lock and energy posts have. (David Trimmer) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 10 +++++----- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 6 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 70fa0dad5..a136bded6 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. +- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses and extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -450,7 +450,7 @@ This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on t Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. -The taper can also affect the person cared for. Under current rules, Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability (£86 a week in 2026-27) is not paid while someone receives Carer's Allowance for caring for that person ([State Pension Credit Regulations 2002](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I), Schedule I, paragraph 1(1)(a)(iii)), and the severe disability premium in other benefits works the same way ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits)). Today a carer above the limit gets no allowance, so the person they care for can keep that amount. A tapered award would end it, and the Budget does not say whether this will change. Our examples show only the carer's household, and PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household, so neither the examples nor the population estimates include this. +The taper can also affect the person cared for. Under current rules, Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability (£86 a week in 2026-27) is not paid while someone receives Carer's Allowance for caring for that person ([State Pension Credit Regulations 2002](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I), Schedule I, paragraph 1(1)(a)(iii)), and the severe disability premium in other benefits works the same way ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits)). Today a carer above the limit gets no allowance, so the person they care for can keep that amount. A tapered award would end it, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. The Budget does not say whether this will change. Our examples show only the carer's household, and PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household, so neither the examples nor the population estimates include this. ## Marginal tax rates @@ -756,7 +756,7 @@ Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the high About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. -We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32, about 60% of the Treasury's £40 million and £80 million. The Treasury's figures also count the Universal Credit interaction, but it does not publish its gross cost. +We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. The Treasury's £40 million and £80 million round the OBR's £38 million and £79 million, which include £5 million and £10 million of extra block grant for Scotland, where Carer's Allowance is devolved. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax ([OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7). Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has no labour-supply response. It does include claims by carers whom the current limit keeps out: PolicyEngine's data assumes that 60% of them claim, which may differ from the Treasury's assumption. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. @@ -767,7 +767,7 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w ### Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. -- Neither the examples nor the population estimates include the effect on the person cared for. A tapered award would stop Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability, or the severe disability premium in other benefits, for the person cared for, but PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household. +- Neither the examples nor the population estimates include the effect on the person cared for. A tapered award would stop Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability, or the severe disability premium in other benefits, for the person cared for, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. @@ -780,4 +780,4 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026); the worked examples differ in two ways: they set the current-law limit to the government's rule, and they count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £150 to £400 a week in £1 steps. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £0 (marginal rates) or £150 (other charts and tables) to £400 a week, in £1 steps for the other charts and tables. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index a8b606c75..b3c3d0591 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:46:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": ["uk", "policy", "autumn-budget"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], "filename": "carers-allowance-taper.md", "image": "carers-allowance-taper/cover.webp" From c945c2c4b41b37628b03cee33a81af5e15e711fd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:39:11 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 43/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: publication time 20:39 The entry's date is now 2026-10-28 20:39 (UTC), the time of this commit, and the entry moves to the top of posts.json to keep it newest first. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 18 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index b3c3d0591..edfbf0bae 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,4 +1,13 @@ [ + { + "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", + "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", + "date": "2026-10-28 20:39:00", + "tags": ["uk", "policy", "autumn-budget"], + "authors": ["anthony-volk"], + "filename": "carers-allowance-taper.md", + "image": "carers-allowance-taper/cover.webp" + }, { "title": "The fuel duty cut extension in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", @@ -8,15 +17,6 @@ "filename": "fuel-duty-cut-extension.md", "image": "fuel-duty-cut-extension/cover-illustration.webp" }, - { - "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", - "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", - "date": "2026-10-28 18:46:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "autumn-budget"], - "authors": ["anthony-volk"], - "filename": "carers-allowance-taper.md", - "image": "carers-allowance-taper/cover.webp" - }, { "title": "Analysis of the Autumn Budget 2026 energy bill measures", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the £100 Household Energy Payment and the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity cost £2.81 billion in 2026-27 and raise household net income by an average of £96.", From 1147fc44b8548f110c3c1526034b317ba37b5592 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:41:55 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 44/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: the OBR's certified figure first MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Following Max Ghenis's comments of 20:34 and 20:36: - Key figure and the costing paragraph give the government's costing, certified by the OBR, of £38m and £79m (OBR, EFO October 2026, policy Table 1.1, measure 7), with Table 6.1's £40m and £80m as its rounding. - The costing table shows the OBR's lines: Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit, extra block grant for Scotland and the total, with a source note. - The Treasury comparison starts from the official £38m and £79m. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 16 ++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index a136bded6..a84775326 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The Treasury estimates a cost of £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, including behavioural responses and extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. +- The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32 after behavioural responses, of which £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -41,11 +41,15 @@ The Budget and the costings describe no other change. We assume that the caring The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Sixteen hours at £14.23 is just under £228 a week, and at £14.62 just under £234, so the limits, rounded up to the next pound, are £228 and £234. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. -The Treasury estimates that the taper costs £40 million in 2030-31 and £80 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx), row 7). Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses: changes in hours worked, which our own estimate below does not model, and take-up by people newly eligible, which it models at a fixed rate. +The government's costing, certified by the OBR, puts the cost of the taper at £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7); the Treasury's [Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx) (row 7) rounds them to £40 million and £80 million. Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses: changes in hours worked, which our own estimate below does not model, and take-up by people newly eligible, which it models at a fixed rate. -| £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | -| ----------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | -| Carer's Allowance taper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −40 | −80 | +| £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | +| --------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | +| Carer's Allowance less Universal Credit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −33 | −69 | +| Extra block grant for Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −5 | −10 | +| **Total** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **−38** | **−79** | + +Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7. The Treasury's Table 6.1 (row 7) rounds the total to −40 and −80. ## Worked examples @@ -756,7 +760,7 @@ Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the high About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. -We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. The Treasury's £40 million and £80 million round the OBR's £38 million and £79 million, which include £5 million and £10 million of extra block grant for Scotland, where Carer's Allowance is devolved. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax ([OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7). Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. +We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. Of the official £38 million and £79 million, £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland, where Carer's Allowance is devolved. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax. Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has no labour-supply response. It does include claims by carers whom the current limit keeps out: PolicyEngine's data assumes that 60% of them claim, which may differ from the Treasury's assumption. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. From 275ce1da6d0eb97c95de01a78e3e5bb569b7e00a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Anthony Volk <14987227+anth-volk@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:59:46 +0400 Subject: [PATCH 45/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: "About half" without the 51% (Max's suggestion) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index a84775326..04f2fb9c7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -758,7 +758,7 @@ The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. -About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half (51%) are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. +About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. Of the official £38 million and £79 million, £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland, where Carer's Allowance is devolved. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax. Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. From de1fa060f9cb2b21133c6ad048d850b5fafea840 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:06:48 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 46/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: "exceeds" for "is above" (Max's style rule) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Replaces "are/is/can be above" with "exceed(s)" in eight sentences and the card description. Prepositional uses ("£1 for each £1 above the limit", "a carer above the limit") are unchanged. No figures change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 16 ++++++++-------- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 04f2fb9c7..261a3fb74 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - The Weekly Earnings Limit is 16 hours at the National Living Wage, rounded up to the next pound: £234 a week, on the OBR's forecast for April 2031. - PolicyEngine UK projects Carer's Allowance at £98 a week. -- Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings are above the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. +- Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. - The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32 after behavioural responses, of which £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. @@ -15,17 +15,17 @@ Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a d - **Who qualifies.** The carer spends at least 35 hours a week caring for someone who gets a qualifying disability benefit, such as Attendance Allowance or the daily living part of Personal Independence Payment. The carer must be 16 or over and not in full-time education ([GOV.UK, Carer's Allowance eligibility](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility)). - **How much.** The allowance is £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK, benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027)). Later rates are projections, not announced rates. PolicyEngine UK raises the rate each April by the previous September's CPI inflation, the basis on which the Treasury assumes Carer's Allowance rises ([policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf), Annex A, page 114, which also rounds to the nearest 5p; PolicyEngine UK does not round). With a rise of 3.5% in April 2027, September 2026's CPI inflation, and, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, 3.4% in April 2028 and about 2% a year after that, the rate goes from £86 in 2026-27 to £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. -- **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income is above the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). +- **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income exceeds the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). - **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). - **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). -- **The earnings test.** A carer whose net earnings in the week before are above the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). The test counts net earnings: pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses, and half of any pension contributions ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). -- **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose net earnings are even 1p above the limit loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". +- **The earnings test.** A carer whose net earnings in the week before exceed the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). The test counts net earnings: pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses, and half of any pension contributions ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). +- **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by even 1p loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". ## What the taper does The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the taper among its policy decisions (paragraph 6.13), and the Treasury's [policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf) (page 16) set out the rules. The taper changes only the earnings test: -1. **Above the limit.** Net earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose net earnings are above the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. +1. **Above the limit.** Net earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. 2. **At or below the limit.** Nothing changes: a carer at or below the limit keeps the full allowance, with or without the taper. 3. **The limit.** The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage, the rule above: £228 a week in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32 on the OBR's forecast. 4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. @@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week of gros | = Net income | £285 | £309 | £312 | £314 | £317 | £319 | £324 | | **Change in net income** | **£0** | **£0** | **+£75** | **+£61** | **+£49** | **+£38** | **+£21** | -Part B works out what the carer has to live on. The income tax in Part A is the tax on the pay alone, as the earnings test counts it: the tax that PAYE would take if the pay were the carer's only income. The income tax in Part B is the tax actually due on pay plus Carer's Allowance, which is taxable. The difference between them is the tax on the allowance. At £240 a week with the taper, pay plus allowance is about £332, above the Personal Allowance, so income tax of about £17 is due, though none is due on the pay alone. Net income rises by the extra allowance less that tax, about £75 a week. +Part B works out what the carer has to live on. The income tax in Part A is the tax on the pay alone, as the earnings test counts it: the tax that PAYE would take if the pay were the carer's only income. The income tax in Part B is the tax actually due on pay plus Carer's Allowance, which is taxable. The difference between them is the tax on the allowance. At £240 a week with the taper, pay plus allowance, about £332, exceeds the Personal Allowance, so income tax of about £17 is due, though none is due on the pay alone. Net income rises by the extra allowance less that tax, about £75 a week. ### Carer 2: on Universal Credit @@ -446,7 +446,7 @@ Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98 to zero as soon as net earnings Carer 1 gains most just above the limit, about £80 a week at £235, and the gain falls to zero at £366. Carer 2 loses throughout the taper range: by about £8 a week up to £247, and by less above that. -Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full ([Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, each £1 of extra allowance takes £1 off Universal Credit. Carer's Allowance is also [taxable](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits), and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below about £247 of pay, pay plus allowance is about £332 a week, above the Personal Allowance, and above £247 all of the allowance is taxed. +Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full ([Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, each £1 of extra allowance takes £1 off Universal Credit. Carer's Allowance is also [taxable](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits), and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below about £247 of pay, pay plus allowance, about £332 a week, exceeds the Personal Allowance, and above £247 all of the allowance is taxed. Universal Credit deducts from employed earnings the income tax paid in respect of the employment ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)). HMRC says that tax on taxable state benefits is [usually taken automatically from a person's other income](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/how-you-pay-income-tax), and that a tax code can take account of taxable state benefits. For an employee whose tax code takes account of Carer's Allowance, the tax on the allowance is part of the PAYE taken from pay, and so lowers earnings for Universal Credit. Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax, so a carer on Universal Credit loses 45% of the tax on the extra allowance: about £8 a week at £240, £4 at £300 and £2 at £330. @@ -772,7 +772,7 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Neither the examples nor the population estimates include the effect on the person cared for. A tapered award would stop Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability, or the severe disability premium in other benefits, for the person cared for, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household. -- Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can be above the limit in some weeks and below it in others. +- Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can exceed the limit in some weeks and not in others. - PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. - The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index edfbf0bae..9aca8c93c 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Carer's Allowance earnings taper in the Autumn Budget 2026", - "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings are above the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", + "description": "From some point in 2030-31, the Carer's Allowance taper lets carers in England and Wales whose net earnings exceed the Weekly Earnings Limit keep part of the allowance, instead of losing all of it. We show how the limit (a projected \u00a3234 a week in 2031-32) and its \u00a31-for-\u00a31 taper work, and how they pass through to income tax and Universal Credit.", "date": "2026-10-28 20:39:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "autumn-budget"], "authors": ["anthony-volk"], From 30ed1c3a44d05b1de74aea60b151efa90fe2a5d2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:15:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 47/47] Carer's Allowance taper post: active voice throughout (Max's style rule) Rewrites the post's passive sentences and be-verb spines in active voice, e.g. "Universal Credit is reduced by" -> "Universal Credit falls by", "which was submitted to the OBR for certification" -> "which the OBR certified", "is taxed at 20%" -> "income tax takes 20% of". Quotes from official documents are unchanged, and no figure changes. An independent review checked every rewrite for meaning and new claims. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md | 48 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 24 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md index 261a3fb74..a405184df 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures for 2031-32: - Under current rules, the earnings limit is a cliff: a carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by any amount, even 1p, loses the whole allowance for that week. With the taper, the allowance falls by £1 for each £1 above the limit. It falls to nothing once a carer's net earnings (pay after income tax and National Insurance, as the test counts them) exceed the £234 limit by the full weekly rate of about £98: at £333 a week or more, which is about £366 a week of gross pay for an employee with no pension contributions. - A carer who does not claim Universal Credit and earns £240 a week gains £75 a week. At £300 a week, the gain is £38. - Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance in full, so it falls by £1 for each £1 of allowance, and the allowance is taxable, so a carer on Universal Credit who pays tax on it loses. At £240 a week of pay, the loss is about £8 a week for an employee whose tax code takes account of the allowance, because Universal Credit then gives back 55% of the tax, as we explain below. -- The government's costing, certified by the OBR, is £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32 after behavioural responses, of which £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. +- The government's costing, which the OBR certified, is £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32 after behavioural responses, of which £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland. Our static estimate of the net cost, the figure on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026), is £24 million and £48 million. ## How Carer's Allowance works today @@ -16,9 +16,9 @@ Carer's Allowance is a weekly benefit for people who look after someone with a d - **Who qualifies.** The carer spends at least 35 hours a week caring for someone who gets a qualifying disability benefit, such as Attendance Allowance or the daily living part of Personal Independence Payment. The carer must be 16 or over and not in full-time education ([GOV.UK, Carer's Allowance eligibility](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility)). - **How much.** The allowance is £86 a week in 2026-27 ([GOV.UK, benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027/proposed-benefit-and-pension-rates-2026-to-2027)). Later rates are projections, not announced rates. PolicyEngine UK raises the rate each April by the previous September's CPI inflation, the basis on which the Treasury assumes Carer's Allowance rises ([policy costings](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf), Annex A, page 114, which also rounds to the nearest 5p; PolicyEngine UK does not round). With a rise of 3.5% in April 2027, September 2026's CPI inflation, and, on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, 3.4% in April 2028 and about 2% a year after that, the rate goes from £86 in 2026-27 to £96 in 2030-31 and £98 in 2031-32. - **Tax.** Carer's Allowance is taxable: tax is due on it if the carer's income exceeds the Personal Allowance ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance)). -- **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit is reduced by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element of Universal Credit is paid for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). -- **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so a person entitled to both is paid only after the rules on overlapping benefits are applied, which stop the same need being met twice ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). -- **The earnings test.** A carer whose net earnings in the week before exceed the Weekly Earnings Limit is treated as gainfully employed and gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). The test counts net earnings: pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses, and half of any pension contributions ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). +- **Universal Credit.** Universal Credit falls by an amount equal to the Carer's Allowance ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits); [Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). Universal Credit pays the carer element for the caring itself, whether or not the carer claims Carer's Allowance ([regulation 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/30)). +- **Overlapping benefits.** Carer's Allowance and the State Pension both provide an income in place of earnings, so for a person entitled to both, the rules on overlapping benefits apply before payment and stop the two benefits both meeting the same need ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraph 5.1). +- **The earnings test.** The rules treat a carer whose net earnings in the week before exceed the Weekly Earnings Limit as gainfully employed, so the carer gets no allowance for that week ([Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1976/409/regulation/8), regulation 8). The test counts net earnings: pay less income tax and National Insurance on the pay, expenses, and half of any pension contributions ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/eligibility); [Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1996/2745/regulation/10), regulation 10). The limit is £204 a week in 2026-27. Since April 2025, the government has set it at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound, as when it raised the limit from £151 to £196 a week ([Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/352/pdfs/uksiem_20250352_en_001.pdf), paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6). - **The cliff.** Today, a carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by even 1p loses the whole allowance for that week. The Budget describes this as losing "their entire benefit for exceeding the limit by a single penny". ## What the taper does @@ -28,20 +28,20 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 1. **Above the limit.** Net earnings above the limit reduce the allowance by £1 for each £1, a taper of 100%, instead of removing it. A carer whose net earnings exceed the limit by more than the weekly rate still gets nothing. 2. **At or below the limit.** Nothing changes: a carer at or below the limit keeps the full allowance, with or without the taper. 3. **The limit.** The costings set the limit at 16 times the National Living Wage, the rule above: £228 a week in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32 on the OBR's forecast. -4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and Northern Ireland, where social security is devolved, is not included. -5. **When.** The taper starts at some point in 2030-31. The government will confirm the date later: the costings say the measure "will begin within the 2030-31 financial year, with a precise start date confirmed in due course", and the Budget says the taper will be implemented "following the development of a new IT system". +4. **Where.** The taper applies in England and Wales. In Scotland, Carer Support Payment has replaced Carer's Allowance, and the taper does not cover Northern Ireland, which runs its own social security system. +5. **When.** The taper starts at some point in 2030-31. The government will confirm the date later: the costings say the measure "will begin within the 2030-31 financial year, with a precise start date confirmed in due course", and the Budget says the government will implement the taper "following the development of a new IT system". 6. **Who.** The government estimates that around 48,000 people benefit in 2030-31, including people who become newly entitled, of whom around 3,000 live in Wales ([Budget 2026 data sources](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1e9a2460c1346f7be77ff/Budget_2026_-_Data_Sources.pdf), page 30). -The Budget and the costings describe no other change. We assume that the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment, its effect on other benefits and the way net earnings are worked out (weekly, after tax, National Insurance and expenses) stay as they are. The Budget says a new IT system will "automatically adjust payments" for the taper (paragraph 3.20), but not how or over what period earnings will be measured. +The Budget and the costings describe no other change. We assume that the caring conditions, the rate, its tax treatment, its effect on other benefits and how the test works out net earnings (weekly, after tax, National Insurance and expenses) stay as they are. The Budget says a new IT system will "automatically adjust payments" for the taper (paragraph 3.20), but not how or over what period the government will measure earnings. | Tax year | National Living Wage an hour (OBR forecast) | Weekly Earnings Limit | Carer's Allowance a week (projection) | No allowance at weekly net earnings of | | -------- | ------------------------------------------: | --------------------: | ------------------------------------: | -------------------------------------: | | 2030-31 | £14.23 | £228 | £96 | £325 or more | | 2031-32 | £14.62 | £234 | £98 | £333 or more | -The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Sixteen hours at £14.23 is just under £228 a week, and at £14.62 just under £234, so the limits, rounded up to the next pound, are £228 and £234. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. +The National Living Wage for each year is the OBR's October 2026 forecast for that April ([Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: economy, Table 1.13); the Treasury's costing also uses the OBR's projections. Sixteen hours at £14.23 comes to just under £228 a week, and at £14.62 just under £234, so the limits, rounded up to the next pound, are £228 and £234. Carer's Allowance after 2026-27 is PolicyEngine UK's projection, uprated with inflation on the same forecast. -The government's costing, certified by the OBR, puts the cost of the taper at £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7); the Treasury's [Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx) (row 7) rounds them to £40 million and £80 million. Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses: changes in hours worked, which our own estimate below does not model, and take-up by people newly eligible, which it models at a fixed rate. +The government's costing, which the OBR certified, puts the cost of the taper at £38 million in 2030-31 and £79 million in 2031-32, and nothing in earlier years ([OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), detailed forecast tables: policy, Table 1.1, measure 7); the Treasury's [Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae187a2779378370fd80a9a/Table_6.1_and_6.2_Budget_2026_Policy_Decisions.xlsx) (row 7) rounds them to £40 million and £80 million. Negative values are costs to the Exchequer, and the 2030-31 figure covers part of a year. The costing includes behavioural responses: changes in hours worked, which our own estimate below does not model, and take-up by people newly eligible, which it models at a fixed rate. | £ million | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | --------------------------------------- | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | ------: | @@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables The examples follow two carers in the West Midlands in 2031-32. Each is 40, works as an employee with no pension contributions, and cares for 35 hours a week for a parent aged 72 who receives Attendance Allowance and lives in a separate household. Household net income is therefore the carer's own. - **Carer 1** owns their home outright, has no housing costs and does not claim Universal Credit. -- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The maximum award, before income is taken into account, is about £330 a week: the standard allowance, the carer element (£55 a week) and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. +- **Carer 2** rents privately for £750 a month and claims Universal Credit. The maximum award, before Universal Credit takes income into account, is about £330 a week: the standard allowance, the carer element (£55 a week) and a housing element of £160 a week, below the rent because of the Local Housing Allowance. Each carer has a table for the earnings test (Part A) and one for net income; carer 2 also has a table for Universal Credit. The tables round to whole pounds, so in some columns a total differs by £1 from the sum of the rounded rows above it. @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ The examples assume that the current-law limit follows the government's rule, 16 | Carer's Allowance today (£98 at or below the limit, £0 above it) | £98 | £98 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | | Carer's Allowance with the taper (£98 − net earnings above the limit, not below £0) | £98 | £98 | £92 | £76 | £62 | £47 | £26 | -Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week of gross pay, net earnings are below £234, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay is below the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so nothing is taken off and net earnings are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. +Part A is the test that decides the allowance. At £200 and £230 a week of gross pay, net earnings do not exceed the £234 limit, so the carer gets the full allowance with or without the taper. At £240, the pay falls short of the £247 a week Personal Allowance and National Insurance threshold, so no income tax or National Insurance comes off the pay, and net earnings are £240, £6 above the limit. Today that £6 costs the whole allowance; with the taper, it costs £6, leaving about £92 a week. | Part B: net income, a week | £200 | £230 | £240 | £260 | £280 | £300 | £330 | | ---------------------------------- | -----: | -----: | -------: | -------: | -------: | -------: | -------: | @@ -446,15 +446,15 @@ Without the taper, the allowance falls from £98 to zero as soon as net earnings Carer 1 gains most just above the limit, about £80 a week at £235, and the gain falls to zero at £366. Carer 2 loses throughout the taper range: by about £8 a week up to £247, and by less above that. -Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full ([Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, each £1 of extra allowance takes £1 off Universal Credit. Carer's Allowance is also [taxable](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits), and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below about £247 of pay, pay plus allowance, about £332 a week, exceeds the Personal Allowance, and above £247 all of the allowance is taxed. +Universal Credit counts Carer's Allowance as unearned income and deducts it in full ([Universal Credit Regulations 2013](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/66), regulation 66(1)(b)(iii)). The carer element does not depend on Carer's Allowance. So for a carer on Universal Credit, each £1 of extra allowance takes £1 off Universal Credit. Carer's Allowance is also [taxable](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits), and with the standard Personal Allowance every carer in the taper range pays income tax on it: below about £247 of pay, pay plus allowance, about £332 a week, exceeds the Personal Allowance, and above £247 income tax applies to all of the allowance. Universal Credit deducts from employed earnings the income tax paid in respect of the employment ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)). HMRC says that tax on taxable state benefits is [usually taken automatically from a person's other income](https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/how-you-pay-income-tax), and that a tax code can take account of taxable state benefits. For an employee whose tax code takes account of Carer's Allowance, the tax on the allowance is part of the PAYE taken from pay, and so lowers earnings for Universal Credit. Universal Credit's 55% taper gives back 55p of each £1 of that tax, so a carer on Universal Credit loses 45% of the tax on the extra allowance: about £8 a week at £240, £4 at £300 and £2 at £330. -This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for the tax to be taken from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. +This is our adjustment. PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earned income: it deducts only the tax on the pay itself, and so shows the whole of the tax on the allowance as a loss, about £17 a week at £240. The figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard do not include the adjustment. We apply it to employees only. A self-employed carer has no pay for PAYE to take the tax from, so the adjustment leaves them as PolicyEngine UK has them, and this post does not cover them. Even with the adjustment, carer 2 is better off without the allowance: without the taper, when pay rises from £234 to £235 and the allowance stops, net income rises by about £8. -The taper can also affect the person cared for. Under current rules, Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability (£86 a week in 2026-27) is not paid while someone receives Carer's Allowance for caring for that person ([State Pension Credit Regulations 2002](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I), Schedule I, paragraph 1(1)(a)(iii)), and the severe disability premium in other benefits works the same way ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits)). Today a carer above the limit gets no allowance, so the person they care for can keep that amount. A tapered award would end it, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. The Budget does not say whether this will change. Our examples show only the carer's household, and PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household, so neither the examples nor the population estimates include this. +The taper can also affect the person cared for. Under current rules, Pension Credit does not pay its extra amount for severe disability (£86 a week in 2026-27) while someone receives Carer's Allowance for caring for that person ([State Pension Credit Regulations 2002](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I), Schedule I, paragraph 1(1)(a)(iii)), and the severe disability premium in other benefits works the same way ([GOV.UK, effect on other benefits](https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/effect-on-other-benefits)). Today a carer above the limit gets no allowance, so the person they care for can keep that amount. A tapered award would end it, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. The Budget does not say whether this will change. Our examples show only the carer's household, and PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household, so neither the examples nor the population estimates include this. ## Marginal tax rates @@ -737,7 +737,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of gross pay that t The "Without the taper" series is for a carer not on Universal Credit. The table above gives the rates without the taper for a carer on Universal Credit. -Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 0% up to about £148 a week, where pay plus the full allowance reaches the Personal Allowance, and 20% from there to the limit, because the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance and pay above about £148 is taxed at 20%. Above the limit, with no allowance, the rate is 0% up to about £247 and 28% above it, from 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance. With the taper, carer 1's rate is 100% from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1 that pay rises. From £247 to £366 it is 85.6%: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p of each extra £1, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. +Without the taper, carer 1's rate is 0% up to about £148 a week, where pay plus the full allowance reaches the Personal Allowance, and 20% from there to the limit, because the allowance uses part of the Personal Allowance and income tax takes 20% of pay above about £148. Above the limit, with no allowance, the rate is 0% up to about £247 and 28% above it, from 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance. With the taper, carer 1's rate is 100% from £234 to about £247, because the allowance falls by the same £1 that pay rises. From £247 to £366 it is 85.6%: income tax and National Insurance on the pay take 28p of each extra £1, the allowance falls by 72p, and the income tax on the allowance falls by 14.4p. Carer 2's rate is 55% up to about £148, from Universal Credit's 55% taper alone, 64% from there to the limit, once income tax starts, and 55% from £234 to about £247, with or without the taper. From £247 to £366, it is 61.1% with the taper, against 67.6% without, because the loss from the tax on the allowance shrinks as the allowance falls. @@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the tape ## Population estimates -We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households, projected to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204. Unlike the worked examples, it does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)); with that adjustment, our calculation gives a net cost of about £28 million in 2030-31 and £55 million in 2031-32. +We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households; we projected the data to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204. Unlike the worked examples, it does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)); with that adjustment, our calculation gives a net cost of about £28 million in 2030-31 and £55 million in 2031-32. | £ million, cost to the Exchequer | 2030-31 | 2031-32 | | -------------------------------- | -------: | -------: | @@ -754,15 +754,15 @@ We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses s | Higher income tax | −15.4 | −31.8 | | **Net cost** | **23.8** | **47.6** | -The rows are rounded, so they may not sum to the net cost. +We round the rows, so they may not sum to the net cost. Lower Universal Credit and higher income tax offset part of the cost of the higher allowance. Setting the current-law limit to the government's rule in both runs, as in the worked examples, gives the same figures throughout this section. -About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half are in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. +About 82,000 people have a higher Carer's Allowance in 2030-31, and about 83,000 in 2031-32, all in England. About half live in families on Universal Credit, and almost all of them lose a little, because Universal Credit falls by the whole of the extra allowance and income tax is due on it. -We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, is before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. Of the official £38 million and £79 million, £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland, where Carer's Allowance is devolved. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax. Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. +We find more carers whose allowance rises than the government estimates will benefit, about 82,000 against its 48,000 in 2030-31, and we model no change in hours worked. Our extra Carer's Allowance, £160 million in 2031-32, comes before any offset: Universal Credit takes back about half of it and income tax about a fifth, leaving a net cost of £24 million in 2030-31 and £48 million in 2031-32. Of the official £38 million and £79 million, £5 million and £10 million is extra block grant for Scotland, which gained powers over Carer's Allowance in 2018. The rest, £33 million and £69 million, is the extra Carer's Allowance less the Universal Credit saving, with no entry for income tax. Before income tax, our figure is £39 million and £79 million, about a sixth more than that spending. Neither the Treasury nor the OBR splits the Carer's Allowance cost from the Universal Credit saving. -The comparison is between a static estimate and a post-behavioural one. The Treasury's costing, which was submitted to the OBR for certification, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has no labour-supply response. It does include claims by carers whom the current limit keeps out: PolicyEngine's data assumes that 60% of them claim, which may differ from the Treasury's assumption. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. +The comparison sets a static estimate against a post-behavioural one. The government's costing, which the OBR certified, includes behavioural responses. Its note says that some carers would increase their earnings or enter work, which lowers Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit spending, and that it accounts for take-up of tapered awards by people newly eligible for them, which adds to the cost. (These are responses of the people affected; the note describes no feedback through the wider economy, which is what a "dynamic" costing usually means.) Our estimate has no labour-supply response. It does include claims by carers whom the current limit keeps out: PolicyEngine's data assumes that 60% of them claim, which may differ from the Treasury's assumption. These differences could explain some of the gap between our figures and the Treasury's, in either direction. The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and we do not show a breakdown by income decile. @@ -773,15 +773,15 @@ The estimate rests on fewer than 50 survey households, so it is imprecise, and w - The worked examples are household calculations for single carers. The carer and the parent live in separate households, so the parent's income does not count. - Neither the examples nor the population estimates include the effect on the person cared for. A tapered award would stop Pension Credit's extra amount for severe disability, or the severe disability premium in other benefits, for the person cared for, unless the carer already has Universal Credit with the carer element, which stops the addition too. PolicyEngine UK does not link a carer to someone they care for in another household. - Weekly amounts are annual amounts divided by 52, so pay is the same each week. The earnings test is weekly, so a carer whose pay varies can exceed the limit in some weeks and not in others. -- PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer is at work, which can be up to half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. +- PolicyEngine UK works out net earnings for the test as pay less National Insurance and the income tax that PAYE would take on the pay alone with a standard tax code. It does not model the deduction for the cost of care while the carer works, which can reach half of net earnings, so it can overstate earnings for carers who pay for care. - PolicyEngine UK holds the current-law earnings limit at £204 after 2026-27. In the worked examples, we set it to the government's rule with and without the taper: £228 in 2030-31 and £234 in 2031-32, the same limit the taper uses. The population estimates keep £204, as the dashboard does. The choice does not change the measure's cost or any household's change, because the taper changes nothing for carers at or below the limit; the population run gives the same figures either way. -- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. Self-employed carers are outside the scope of this adjustment and of this post. +- The worked examples count the PAYE on Carer's Allowance against Universal Credit earned income for employees, which PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the dashboard do not yet do. The population estimates, like the dashboard, do not. This adjustment and this post do not cover self-employed carers. - Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit and the National Living Wage for 2030-31 and 2031-32 are projections. PolicyEngine UK does not round its projected Carer's Allowance to the penny. - The examples assume that each carer claims Carer's Allowance and, for carer 2, Universal Credit. The population estimates use the take-up assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. -- Scotland's Carer Support Payment is not affected. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. +- The taper does not change Scotland's Carer Support Payment. In Northern Ireland, Carer's Allowance keeps the current rule. ### Methodology We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the taper, so we added it as a structural reform that changes Carer's Allowance entitlement (the `carers_allowance_pre_overlap` variable) above the earnings limit. The rules and values match the Carer's Allowance taper in the draft update to PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026); the worked examples differ in two ways: they set the current-law limit to the government's rule, and they count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings (see the assumptions). The population estimates are the dashboard's own run. -Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings is worked out with Carer's Allowance counted as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £0 (marginal rates) or £150 (other charts and tables) to £400 a week, in £1 steps for the other charts and tables. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay. +Both sides of every calculation use the OBR's October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does. In the worked examples, both sides also set PolicyEngine UK's current-law earnings limit to the government's rule and use our Universal Credit adjustment: for a person with employment income, we work out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings by treating Carer's Allowance as part of the earnings, so it includes the tax on the allowance. We calculated each household for gross pay from £0 (marginal rates) or £150 (other charts and tables) to £400 a week, in £1 steps for the other charts and tables. The charts of the allowance and of net income plot whole-pound points where the schedules change slope and a point every £20. The marginal tax rates are PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` variable, with its pay rise set to £52 a year (£1 a week) on both sides; the chart plots a point every £100 of annual pay and the points where the rates change, and leaves out the points whose £1 rise crosses one of those points, which would average two rates. The variable agrees with a direct difference of household net income to within 0.01 percentage points. PolicyEngine UK reduces all employees' pay by 0.16% in 2031-32, to reflect employers passing on the cost of the salary sacrifice cap, so we set pay 0.16% higher to give whole-pound gross pay.