From fddad49666cd9ad4756697c8ac7f70626ab2ad89 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Ziming Hua <113824411+hua7450@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:40:46 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 01/36] Draft Autumn Budget 2026 savings/property and trading
explainers
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md | 43 +
.../generate_households.py | 373 +++
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv | 24 +
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json | 2015 +++++++++++++++++
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json | 36 +
.../requirements.txt | 3 +
.../savings-interest-chart.json | 76 +
.../savings-interest-curve.csv | 11 +
.../trading-allowance-chart.json | 76 +
.../trading-receipts-curve.csv | 11 +
...udget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg | 56 +
...k-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg | 45 +
...budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 154 ++
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 149 ++
app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 18 +
15 files changed, 3090 insertions(+)
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/requirements.txt
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg
create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b59c5b21d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+# Autumn Budget 2026 income tax explainers
+
+This directory supports two standalone posts: the combined savings/property rate increase and the trading allowance increase. The articles compare the newly announced measures with the already legislated 2027–28 baseline, one measure at a time.
+
+## Reproduce the household calculations
+
+From the repository root, using Python 3.13:
+
+```sh
+uv venv --python 3.13 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv
+uv pip install --python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python -r analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/requirements.txt
+analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
+```
+
+The generator uses hypothetical adults, without population microdata. It records inputs and outputs and checks the results against independent arithmetic. The reform parameters match dashboard PR290 at the immutable commit recorded in `provenance.json`. Fixed nominal household incomes do not require population forecast uprating.
+
+The checked outputs include 23 household comparisons and 20 points across the two income curves. To also verify the original dashboard parameter builder, pass `--dashboard-checkout /path/to/checkout` with that checkout at the recorded commit. This check is optional and performs no download.
+
+The article chart blocks reproduce `savings-interest-chart.json` and `trading-allowance-chart.json`. Reinsert their contents when regenerating them.
+
+## Dataset decision
+
+Retain the dashboard's adopted `policyengine` 6.11.1 bundle, with UK 2.151.0, core 3.33.3 and national data cut `a6299504`. The certificate, full dataset ID and checksum are recorded in `provenance.json`. The newer candidate in policyengine.py PR725 is awaiting certification/adoption. A future update must change the package and dataset provenance together and regenerate the analysis.
+
+No population microdata were available for this draft. It contains no PolicyEngine national estimates, decile results or affected-person counts. Treasury forecasts are labelled separately and are not a substitute for those calculations. The publicly committed dashboard results checked on 28 October did not yet include these two Budget-day measures; older candidate savings/property charts must not be relabelled as the announced policy.
+
+When access and certified Budget-day outputs are available, use the national dataset above and the dashboard's October 2026 OBR forecast wrapper on both baseline and reform. Score each provision separately. Reconcile fiscal-year Treasury receipts with modelled tax-year liabilities, documenting behavioural and timing differences. Retain survey confidentiality; publish aggregates only.
+
+## Checks before publication
+
+- Add the outstanding national revenue, affected-person and decile results requested in the team brief, with provenance and model-coverage limits.
+- Confirm the treatment of Scottish landlords' finance-cost relief against the final Budget implementation. The pinned model links that relief to the UK property basic rate even for Scotland.
+- Check trading allowance coverage: gross receipts and actual expenses are needed to model the deduction choice; the pinned model does not apply the allowance to its separate miscellaneous-income input.
+- Verify the final public dashboard link and add links to these explainers within the dashboard. The source checkout's README supplies the current Vercel dashboard URL.
+- Have the policy interpretation and calculations reviewed before merging. This branch is a draft and is not publication approval.
+
+The two articles use the site's native chart blocks and cover assets. No runtime application or country-model code is changed.
+
+## Validation on 28 October 2026
+
+`make format`, `make lint`, `make typecheck` and `make test` passed. The tests ran on Node 26.12.1: 6,042 app tests and 508 website tests passed, with 10 app tests skipped by the existing suite. After inserting the final chart data, the chart-parser and post-metadata checks passed again (18 tests). All 23 household comparisons and 20 curve points passed independent arithmetic checks.
+
+Browser access to the local preview was declined, so visual preview remains outstanding. The SVG cover XML and native chart specs were validated, but this does not confirm page layout at desktop or mobile widths.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..e3b752fcc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
@@ -0,0 +1,373 @@
+"""Reproduce synthetic examples for the two Autumn Budget 2026 explainers.
+
+Run with this directory's pinned .venv/bin/python. No population data are used.
+Tax liability changes isolate each announced measure against the 2027 baseline.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import ast
+import csv
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+import importlib.metadata as metadata
+import json
+import math
+from pathlib import Path
+import platform
+import subprocess
+import warnings
+
+import policyengine as pe
+
+
+YEAR = 2027
+EXPECTED_VERSIONS = {
+ "policyengine": "6.11.1",
+ "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0",
+ "policyengine-core": "3.33.3",
+}
+SOURCE_COMMIT = "b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55"
+SOURCE_PR = "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/290"
+RATE_ROOT = "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates"
+SAVINGS_PROPERTY = {
+ f"{RATE_ROOT}.{income}.{band}": rate
+ for income in ("savings", "property")
+ for band, rate in (("basic", 0.24), ("higher", 0.44), ("additional", 0.49))
+}
+TRADING_PATH = "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance"
+TRADING = {TRADING_PATH: 3_000}
+PERSON_OUTPUTS = [
+ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax", "savings_allowance",
+ "savings_starter_rate_income", "basic_rate_savings_income",
+ "higher_rate_savings_income", "add_rate_savings_income",
+ "property_income_tax", "property_finance_cost_relief",
+ "taxable_property_income", "trading_allowance_deduction",
+ "taxable_self_employment_income", "national_insurance", "ni_class_4",
+]
+
+
+def close(actual: float, expected: float, label: str) -> None:
+ # Country-model monetary arrays are float32; two pence covers their
+ # representation error without concealing a material example discrepancy.
+ if not math.isclose(actual, expected, abs_tol=0.02, rel_tol=0):
+ raise AssertionError(f"{label}: engine {actual}, independent oracle {expected}")
+
+
+def rounded(value):
+ if isinstance(value, list):
+ return [round(float(item), 2) for item in value]
+ return round(float(value), 2)
+
+
+def calculate(person: dict, region: str, reform: dict, axes=None) -> dict:
+ result = pe.uk.calculate_household(
+ people=[{"age": 35, **person}],
+ household={"region": region},
+ year=YEAR,
+ reform=reform,
+ axes=axes,
+ extra_variables=PERSON_OUTPUTS,
+ )
+ output = {name: rounded(getattr(result.person[0], name)) for name in PERSON_OUTPUTS}
+ output["household_benefits"] = rounded(result.household.household_benefits)
+ return output
+
+
+def verify_baseline_parameters() -> dict:
+ # Direct country access inspects parameters only. Tax calculations use pe.uk.
+ from policyengine_uk.system import system
+
+ baseline = {
+ path: system.parameters.get_child(path)(f"{YEAR}-04-06")
+ for path in SAVINGS_PROPERTY
+ }
+ for path in SAVINGS_PROPERTY:
+ expected = {"basic": 0.22, "higher": 0.42, "additional": 0.47}[path.rsplit(".", 1)[1]]
+ close(baseline[path], expected, path)
+ baseline[TRADING_PATH] = system.parameters.get_child(TRADING_PATH)(f"{YEAR}-04-06")
+ close(baseline[TRADING_PATH], 1_000, TRADING_PATH)
+ return baseline
+
+
+def source_comparison(checkout: Path | None) -> dict:
+ """Optionally execute the dashboard's relevant builder, not its pipeline."""
+ record = {
+ "pull_request": SOURCE_PR,
+ "commit": SOURCE_COMMIT,
+ "source_file_url": f"https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/{SOURCE_COMMIT}/src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
+ "compared_file": "src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
+ "baseline_parameters": verify_baseline_parameters(),
+ "reform_parameters": {**SAVINGS_PROPERTY, **TRADING},
+ "dashboard_builder_verified": checkout is not None,
+ }
+ if checkout is None:
+ return {
+ **record,
+ "comparison": "Independent reform dictionaries and baseline parameters verified. Optional dashboard-builder comparison not requested; immutable source reference recorded above.",
+ }
+ commit = subprocess.check_output(
+ ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"], cwd=checkout, text=True
+ ).strip()
+ if commit != SOURCE_COMMIT:
+ raise AssertionError(f"Dashboard checkout changed: {commit}")
+ source_file = checkout / "src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py"
+ tree = ast.parse(source_file.read_text())
+ names = {
+ "INCOME_TAX_RATES", "UNEARNED_INCOME_RATE_PATHS",
+ "UNEARNED_INCOME_RATE_RISE", "UNEARNED_INCOME_RATES_FROM",
+ "TRADING_ALLOWANCE", "TRADING_ALLOWANCE_RAISED", "TRADING_ALLOWANCE_FROM",
+ }
+ selected = [
+ node for node in tree.body
+ if (
+ isinstance(node, ast.Assign)
+ and any(isinstance(target, ast.Name) and target.id in names for target in node.targets)
+ ) or (isinstance(node, ast.FunctionDef) and node.name == "unearned_income_rates_up")
+ ]
+ scope = {
+ "POLICY_YEARS": list(range(2026, 2032)),
+ # The real template validates then returns this same dictionary shape.
+ "rate_change": lambda path, years: {path: years},
+ }
+ exec(compile(ast.Module(body=selected, type_ignores=[]), str(source_file), "exec"), scope)
+ dashboard = scope["unearned_income_rates_up"]()
+ flat = {path: values[str(YEAR)] for path, values in dashboard.items()}
+ assert flat == SAVINGS_PROPERTY, (flat, SAVINGS_PROPERTY)
+ assert scope["UNEARNED_INCOME_RATES_FROM"] == YEAR
+ assert scope["TRADING_ALLOWANCE_FROM"] == YEAR
+ assert {scope["TRADING_ALLOWANCE"]: scope["TRADING_ALLOWANCE_RAISED"]} == TRADING
+ return {
+ **record,
+ "comparison": "Relevant parameter declarations and savings/property builder match the independent flat reform dictionaries; no combined-package modifiers run.",
+ }
+
+
+def cases() -> list[dict]:
+ rows = []
+
+ def add(case_id, policy, person, expected, region="LONDON", detail=None):
+ rows.append({
+ "id": case_id, "policy": policy, "region": region,
+ "person": person, "independent_oracle": expected,
+ "detail": detail,
+ })
+
+ for case_id, salary, interest, allowance, before, after in [
+ ("saver_below_allowance", 30_000, 500, 1_000, 0, 0),
+ ("saver_basic", 30_000, 2_000, 1_000, 220, 240),
+ ("saver_higher", 60_000, 2_000, 500, 630, 660),
+ ("saver_additional", 150_000, 2_000, 0, 940, 980),
+ ("saver_crosses_basic_higher", 49_270, 2_000, 500, 530, 560),
+ ("saver_starting_rate", 15_000, 4_000, 1_000, 94.60, 103.20),
+ ]:
+ add(case_id, "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": salary, "savings_interest_income": interest,
+ }, {
+ "baseline": {"savings_allowance": allowance, "savings_income_tax": before},
+ "reform": {"savings_allowance": allowance, "savings_income_tax": after},
+ "change": {"income_tax": after - before},
+ })
+ add("saver_scotland_higher", "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": 60_000, "savings_interest_income": 2_000,
+ }, {"baseline": {"savings_income_tax": 630}, "reform": {"savings_income_tax": 660},
+ "change": {"income_tax": 30}}, region="SCOTLAND")
+
+ for band, salary, before, after, total in [
+ ("basic", 30_000, 2_200, 2_400, 4_806),
+ ("higher", 60_000, 4_200, 4_400, 14_752),
+ ("additional", 150_000, 4_700, 4_900, 57_523),
+ ("crosses_basic_higher", 45_000, 3_146, 3_346, 8_752),
+ ]:
+ add(f"landlord_{band}_mortgage", "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": salary, "property_income": 10_000,
+ "property_finance_costs": 4_000,
+ }, {
+ "baseline": {"property_income_tax": before, "property_finance_cost_relief": 880, "income_tax": total},
+ "reform": {"property_income_tax": after, "property_finance_cost_relief": 960, "income_tax": total + 120},
+ "change": {"income_tax": 120},
+ }, detail={"gross_rent": 12_000, "actual_non_finance_expenses": 2_000})
+ for region in ("LONDON", "WALES", "NORTHERN_IRELAND"):
+ add(f"landlord_mortgage_free_{region.lower()}", "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": 30_000, "property_income": 10_000,
+ }, {"baseline": {"property_income_tax": 2_200}, "reform": {"property_income_tax": 2_400},
+ "change": {"income_tax": 200}}, region=region)
+ for finance, change in ((0, 0), (4_000, -80)):
+ add(f"landlord_scotland_finance_{finance}", "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": 60_000, "property_income": 10_000,
+ "property_finance_costs": finance,
+ }, {"change": {"property_income_tax": 0, "property_finance_cost_relief": finance * 0.02, "income_tax": change}},
+ region="SCOTLAND", detail="Scottish property rates do not change; the UK-wide finance-cost credit rate does.")
+ add("property_then_savings_order", "savings_property", {
+ "employment_income": 45_000, "property_income": 6_000,
+ "savings_interest_income": 2_000,
+ }, {
+ "baseline": {"property_income_tax": 1_466, "savings_income_tax": 630, "income_tax": 8_582},
+ "reform": {"property_income_tax": 1_586, "savings_income_tax": 660, "income_tax": 8_732},
+ "change": {"income_tax": 150},
+ })
+
+ for salary, marginal in ((30_000, 0.2), (60_000, 0.4)):
+ wages_tax = 3_486 if salary == 30_000 else 11_432
+ for expenses in (500, 2_500, 3_500):
+ receipts = 4_000
+ before = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 1_000))
+ after = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 3_000))
+ add(f"trader_salary_{salary}_expenses_{expenses}", "trading", {
+ "employment_income": salary,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": receipts,
+ "self_employment_income": receipts - expenses,
+ }, {
+ "baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": before, "income_tax": wages_tax + before * marginal, "ni_class_4": 0},
+ "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": after, "income_tax": wages_tax + after * marginal, "ni_class_4": 0},
+ "change": {"income_tax": (after - before) * marginal, "national_insurance": 0},
+ }, detail={"gross_receipts": receipts, "actual_expenses": expenses})
+ return rows
+
+
+def generate_cases() -> list[dict]:
+ output = []
+ for case in cases():
+ reform = SAVINGS_PROPERTY if case["policy"] == "savings_property" else TRADING
+ baseline = calculate(case["person"], case["region"], {})
+ reformed = calculate(case["person"], case["region"], reform)
+ change = {name: round(reformed[name] - baseline[name], 2) for name in baseline}
+ result = {**case, "baseline": baseline, "reform": reformed, "change": change}
+ for scenario, expectations in case["independent_oracle"].items():
+ for variable, expected in expectations.items():
+ close(result[scenario][variable], expected, f"{case['id']} {scenario} {variable}")
+ close(baseline["household_benefits"], 0, f"{case['id']} baseline benefits")
+ close(reformed["household_benefits"], 0, f"{case['id']} reform benefits")
+ output.append(result)
+ return output
+
+
+def generate_curves() -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
+ interest_rows = [{"interest": value} for value in range(500, 5_001, 500)]
+ for label, salary, allowance, old_rate in (
+ ("basic", 30_000, 1_000, 0.22), ("higher", 60_000, 500, 0.42),
+ ):
+ axes = [[{"name": "savings_interest_income", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": 10}]]
+ baseline = calculate({"employment_income": salary}, "LONDON", {}, axes)
+ reformed = calculate({"employment_income": salary}, "LONDON", SAVINGS_PROPERTY, axes)
+ for index, row in enumerate(interest_rows):
+ taxable = max(0, row["interest"] - allowance)
+ before, after = baseline["savings_income_tax"][index], reformed["savings_income_tax"][index]
+ close(before, taxable * old_rate, f"{label} savings curve baseline")
+ close(after, taxable * (old_rate + 0.02), f"{label} savings curve reform")
+ row[f"{label}_baseline_tax"] = before
+ row[f"{label}_reform_tax"] = after
+ row[f"{label}_tax_increase"] = round(after - before, 2)
+
+ trading_rows = [{"receipts": value} for value in range(500, 5_001, 500)]
+ for label, expense_share in (("no_expenses", 0), ("expenses_75_percent", 0.75)):
+ profit_share = 1 - expense_share
+ axes = [[
+ {"name": "self_employment_gross_receipts", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": 10},
+ {"name": "self_employment_income", "min": 500 * profit_share, "max": 5_000 * profit_share, "count": 10},
+ ]]
+ baseline = calculate({"employment_income": 30_000}, "LONDON", {}, axes)
+ reformed = calculate({"employment_income": 30_000}, "LONDON", TRADING, axes)
+ for index, row in enumerate(trading_rows):
+ receipts = row["receipts"]
+ expenses = receipts * expense_share
+ old_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 1_000))
+ new_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 3_000))
+ close(baseline["taxable_self_employment_income"][index], old_taxable, f"{label} trading baseline")
+ close(reformed["taxable_self_employment_income"][index], new_taxable, f"{label} trading reform")
+ reduction = round(baseline["income_tax"][index] - reformed["income_tax"][index], 2)
+ close(reduction, (old_taxable - new_taxable) * 0.2, f"{label} trading tax reduction")
+ close(baseline["ni_class_4"][index], 0, f"{label} baseline Class 4")
+ close(reformed["ni_class_4"][index], 0, f"{label} reform Class 4")
+ row[f"{label}_actual_expenses"] = expenses
+ row[f"{label}_baseline_taxable_profit"] = old_taxable
+ row[f"{label}_reform_taxable_profit"] = new_taxable
+ row[f"{label}_tax_reduction"] = reduction
+ return interest_rows, trading_rows
+
+
+def chart_specs(savings, trading) -> dict:
+ source = "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed."
+ return {
+ "savings-interest-chart.json": {
+ "type": "bar", "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "interest", "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
+ "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0}, "source": source,
+ "series": [
+ {"key": "basic", "name": "£30,000 salary", "color": "negative"},
+ {"key": "higher", "name": "£60,000 salary", "color": "secondary"},
+ ],
+ "data": [{"interest": f"£{row['interest']:,}", "basic": row["basic_tax_increase"], "higher": row["higher_tax_increase"]} for row in savings],
+ },
+ "trading-allowance-chart.json": {
+ "type": "bar", "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "receipts", "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0}, "source": source,
+ "series": [
+ {"key": "noExpenses", "name": "No business expenses", "color": "primary"},
+ {"key": "highExpenses", "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts", "color": "secondary"},
+ ],
+ "data": [{"receipts": f"£{row['receipts']:,}", "noExpenses": row["no_expenses_tax_reduction"], "highExpenses": row["expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction"]} for row in trading],
+ },
+ }
+
+
+def write_csv(path: Path, rows: list[dict]) -> None:
+ with path.open("w", newline="") as handle:
+ writer = csv.DictWriter(handle, fieldnames=list(rows[0]))
+ writer.writeheader()
+ writer.writerows(rows)
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+ parser.add_argument("--dashboard-checkout", type=Path, help="Optional checkout at the recorded PR290 commit for source-builder comparison; not needed for household calculations.")
+ parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=Path(__file__).resolve().parent)
+ args = parser.parse_args()
+ versions = {package: metadata.version(package) for package in EXPECTED_VERSIONS}
+ assert versions == EXPECTED_VERSIONS, (versions, EXPECTED_VERSIONS)
+ # Formula files are dynamically loaded, so their warning module names do
+ # not consistently match policyengine_uk. Filter these exact known messages.
+ warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=RuntimeWarning, message="(divide by zero|invalid value) encountered in (divide|multiply)")
+ warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=UserWarning, message="Accessing \\.values on a MicroSeries returns a plain numpy array without weights\\.")
+ comparison = source_comparison(args.dashboard_checkout)
+ households = generate_cases()
+ savings, trading = generate_curves()
+ payload = {
+ "metadata": {
+ "generated_at_utc": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+ "tax_year": "2027–28", "model_year": YEAR, "versions": versions,
+ "python": platform.python_version(), "dashboard_comparison": comparison,
+ "scope": "Synthetic single adults age 35; no microdata, no behavioural responses or national estimates. Income and expenses held fixed; tax liabilities, not full household net-income changes.",
+ "assumptions": "No children, pensions, Gift Aid, student loans, capital gains, other tax reliefs, property losses or carried-forward finance costs. Savings are outside ISAs. Trading receipts and profit are both supplied; no connected-party receipts or partnership income. All example benefit totals are checked to be zero.",
+ "oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "warning_filters": "Known household divide/invalid RuntimeWarnings and single-household model decile .values warnings only; no population weights are accessed by this generator.",
+ },
+ "reforms": {"savings_property": SAVINGS_PROPERTY, "trading": TRADING},
+ "households": households,
+ "savings_interest_curve": savings, "trading_receipts_curve": trading,
+ }
+ args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+ (args.output_dir / "households.json").write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
+ flat = []
+ for row in households:
+ record = {"id": row["id"], "policy": row["policy"], "region": row["region"], "model_year": YEAR}
+ record.update({f"input_{name}": row["person"].get(name, 0) for name in (
+ "employment_income", "savings_interest_income", "property_income",
+ "property_finance_costs", "self_employment_gross_receipts", "self_employment_income",
+ )})
+ for scenario in ("baseline", "reform", "change"):
+ record.update({f"{scenario}_{name}": value for name, value in row[scenario].items()})
+ flat.append(record)
+ write_csv(args.output_dir / "households.csv", flat)
+ write_csv(args.output_dir / "savings-interest-curve.csv", savings)
+ write_csv(args.output_dir / "trading-receipts-curve.csv", trading)
+ for filename, spec in chart_specs(savings, trading).items():
+ (args.output_dir / filename).write_text(json.dumps(spec, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
+ print(f"Verified {len(households)} household comparisons and {len(savings) + len(trading)} curve points; wrote {args.output_dir}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+ main()
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..86194df52
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+id,policy,region,model_year,input_employment_income,input_savings_interest_income,input_property_income,input_property_finance_costs,input_self_employment_gross_receipts,input_self_employment_income,baseline_income_tax,baseline_savings_income_tax,baseline_savings_allowance,baseline_savings_starter_rate_income,baseline_basic_rate_savings_income,baseline_higher_rate_savings_income,baseline_add_rate_savings_income,baseline_property_income_tax,baseline_property_finance_cost_relief,baseline_taxable_property_income,baseline_trading_allowance_deduction,baseline_taxable_self_employment_income,baseline_national_insurance,baseline_ni_class_4,baseline_household_benefits,reform_income_tax,reform_savings_income_tax,reform_savings_allowance,reform_savings_starter_rate_income,reform_basic_rate_savings_income,reform_higher_rate_savings_income,reform_add_rate_savings_income,reform_property_income_tax,reform_property_finance_cost_relief,reform_taxable_property_income,reform_trading_allowance_deduction,reform_taxable_self_employment_income,reform_national_insurance,reform_ni_class_4,reform_household_benefits,change_income_tax,change_savings_income_tax,change_savings_allowance,change_savings_starter_rate_income,change_basic_rate_savings_income,change_higher_rate_savings_income,change_add_rate_savings_income,change_property_income_tax,change_property_finance_cost_relief,change_taxable_property_income,change_trading_allowance_deduction,change_taxable_self_employment_income,change_national_insurance,change_ni_class_4,change_household_benefits
+saver_below_allowance,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,500,0,0,0,0,3486.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3486.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_basic,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,2000,0,0,0,0,3706.0,220.0,1000.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3726.0,240.0,1000.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,20.0,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_higher,savings_property,LONDON,2027,60000,2000,0,0,0,0,12062.0,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,12092.0,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_additional,savings_property,LONDON,2027,150000,2000,0,0,0,0,54643.0,940.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,54683.0,980.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,40.0,40.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_crosses_basic_higher,savings_property,LONDON,2027,49270,2000,0,0,0,0,7870.0,530.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2936.0,0.0,0.0,7900.0,560.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2936.0,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_starting_rate,savings_property,LONDON,2027,15000,4000,0,0,0,0,580.6,94.6,1000.0,2570.0,430.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,194.4,0.0,0.0,589.2,103.2,1000.0,2570.0,430.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,194.4,0.0,0.0,8.6,8.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_scotland_higher,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,2000,0,0,0,0,13807.87,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,13837.87,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_basic_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,0,10000,4000,0,0,4806.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,4926.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_higher_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,60000,0,10000,4000,0,0,14752.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,14872.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4400.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_additional_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,150000,0,10000,4000,0,0,57523.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4700.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,57643.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4900.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_crosses_basic_higher_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,45000,0,10000,4000,0,0,8752.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3146.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,8872.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3346.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_mortgage_free_london,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_mortgage_free_wales,savings_property,WALES,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_mortgage_free_northern_ireland,savings_property,NORTHERN_IRELAND,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_scotland_finance_0,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,0,0,0,17377.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,17377.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_scotland_finance_4000,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,4000,0,0,16497.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,16417.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,-80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+property_then_savings_order,savings_property,LONDON,2027,45000,2000,6000,0,0,0,8582.0,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,1466.0,0.0,6000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,8732.0,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,1586.0,0.0,6000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,150.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_30000_expenses_500,trading,LONDON,2027,30000,0,0,0,4000,3500,4086.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,3000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2500.0,1000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,-400.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,-2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_30000_expenses_2500,trading,LONDON,2027,30000,0,0,0,4000,1500,3786.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,-100.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,-500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_30000_expenses_3500,trading,LONDON,2027,30000,0,0,0,4000,500,3586.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3586.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_60000_expenses_500,trading,LONDON,2027,60000,0,0,0,4000,3500,12632.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,3000.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,11832.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2500.0,1000.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,-800.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,-2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_60000_expenses_2500,trading,LONDON,2027,60000,0,0,0,4000,1500,12032.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,11832.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,-200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,-500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trader_salary_60000_expenses_3500,trading,LONDON,2027,60000,0,0,0,4000,500,11632.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,11632.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..182007c95
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
@@ -0,0 +1,2015 @@
+{
+ "metadata": {
+ "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T14:37:16.549617+00:00",
+ "tax_year": "2027–28",
+ "model_year": 2027,
+ "versions": {
+ "policyengine": "6.11.1",
+ "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0",
+ "policyengine-core": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "python": "3.13.14",
+ "dashboard_comparison": {
+ "pull_request": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/290",
+ "commit": "b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55",
+ "source_file_url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55/src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
+ "compared_file": "src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
+ "baseline_parameters": {
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.22,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.42,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.47,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic": 0.22,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher": 0.42,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional": 0.47,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance": 1000
+ },
+ "reform_parameters": {
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.24,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.44,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.49,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic": 0.24,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher": 0.44,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional": 0.49,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance": 3000
+ },
+ "dashboard_builder_verified": true,
+ "comparison": "Relevant parameter declarations and savings/property builder match the independent flat reform dictionaries; no combined-package modifiers run."
+ },
+ "scope": "Synthetic single adults age 35; no microdata, no behavioural responses or national estimates. Income and expenses held fixed; tax liabilities, not full household net-income changes.",
+ "assumptions": "No children, pensions, Gift Aid, student loans, capital gains, other tax reliefs, property losses or carried-forward finance costs. Savings are outside ISAs. Trading receipts and profit are both supplied; no connected-party receipts or partnership income. All example benefit totals are checked to be zero.",
+ "oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "warning_filters": "Known household divide/invalid RuntimeWarnings and single-household model decile .values warnings only; no population weights are accessed by this generator."
+ },
+ "reforms": {
+ "savings_property": {
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.24,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.44,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.49,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic": 0.24,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher": 0.44,
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional": 0.49
+ },
+ "trading": {
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance": 3000
+ }
+ },
+ "households": [
+ {
+ "id": "saver_below_allowance",
+ "policy": "savings_property",
+ "region": "LONDON",
+ "person": {
+ "employment_income": 30000,
+ "savings_interest_income": 500
+ },
+ "independent_oracle": {
+ "baseline": {
+ "savings_allowance": 1000,
+ "savings_income_tax": 0
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "savings_allowance": 1000,
+ "savings_income_tax": 0
+ },
+ "change": {
+ "income_tax": 0
+ }
+ },
+ "detail": null,
+ "baseline": {
+ "income_tax": 3486.0,
+ "savings_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "savings_allowance": 1000.0,
+ "savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
+ "basic_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "higher_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "add_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "property_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "property_finance_cost_relief": 0.0,
+ "taxable_property_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 1394.4,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "household_benefits": 0.0
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "income_tax": 3486.0,
+ "savings_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "savings_allowance": 1000.0,
+ "savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
+ "basic_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "higher_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "add_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "property_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "property_finance_cost_relief": 0.0,
+ "taxable_property_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 1394.4,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "household_benefits": 0.0
+ },
+ "change": {
+ "income_tax": 0.0,
+ "savings_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "savings_allowance": 0.0,
+ "savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
+ "basic_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "higher_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "add_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "property_income_tax": 0.0,
+ "property_finance_cost_relief": 0.0,
+ "taxable_property_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 0.0,
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+ }
+ ]
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..e4596e2d8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+{
+ "as_of": "2026-10-28",
+ "household_year": 2027,
+ "package_versions": {
+ "policyengine": "6.11.1",
+ "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0",
+ "policyengine-core": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "dashboard_reforms": {
+ "repository": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026",
+ "pull_request": 290,
+ "commit": "b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55",
+ "path": "src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
+ "measures": ["unearned_income_rates_up", "trading_allowance_raise"]
+ },
+ "population": {
+ "status": "pending_data_access_and_dashboard_budget_day_outputs",
+ "dataset": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
+ "certificate": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine.py/pull/720",
+ "dashboard_adoption": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/237",
+ "raw_microdata_used_for_households": false,
+ "national_results_generated": false,
+ "forecast": "October 2026 OBR inputs, applied to both baseline and reform when population scoring is run",
+ "replacement_policy": "Retain this adopted bundle until a later explicitly recorded update; do not silently use the candidate in policyengine.py PR725."
+ },
+ "treasury_costings": {
+ "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html",
+ "table": "6.1",
+ "units": "GBP million; positive values below indicate revenue for savings/property and cost for trading",
+ "fiscal_years": ["2026-27", "2027-28", "2028-29", "2029-30", "2030-31", "2031-32"],
+ "property_row_61_revenue": [0, 35, 575, 435, 445, 455],
+ "savings_row_62_revenue": [15, 125, 555, 520, 555, 590],
+ "trading_row_15_cost": [0, 0, 225, 165, 175, 180]
+ }
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/requirements.txt b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/requirements.txt
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..dcb085836
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/requirements.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+policyengine[uk]==6.11.1
+policyengine-uk==2.151.0
+policyengine-core==3.33.3
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..516fc1488
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+{
+ "type": "bar",
+ "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "interest",
+ "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
+ "format": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0
+ },
+ "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
+ "series": [
+ {
+ "key": "basic",
+ "name": "£30,000 salary",
+ "color": "negative"
+ },
+ {
+ "key": "higher",
+ "name": "£60,000 salary",
+ "color": "secondary"
+ }
+ ],
+ "data": [
+ {
+ "interest": "£500",
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£1,000",
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 10.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£1,500",
+ "basic": 10.0,
+ "higher": 20.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£2,000",
+ "basic": 20.0,
+ "higher": 30.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£2,500",
+ "basic": 30.0,
+ "higher": 40.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£3,000",
+ "basic": 40.0,
+ "higher": 50.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£3,500",
+ "basic": 50.0,
+ "higher": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£4,000",
+ "basic": 60.0,
+ "higher": 70.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£4,500",
+ "basic": 70.0,
+ "higher": 80.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£5,000",
+ "basic": 80.0,
+ "higher": 90.0
+ }
+ ]
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..beb9d0a60
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+interest,basic_baseline_tax,basic_reform_tax,basic_tax_increase,higher_baseline_tax,higher_reform_tax,higher_tax_increase
+500,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1000,0.0,0.0,0.0,210.0,220.0,10.0
+1500,110.0,120.0,10.0,420.0,440.0,20.0
+2000,220.0,240.0,20.0,630.0,660.0,30.0
+2500,330.0,360.0,30.0,840.0,880.0,40.0
+3000,440.0,480.0,40.0,1050.0,1100.0,50.0
+3500,550.0,600.0,50.0,1260.0,1320.0,60.0
+4000,660.0,720.0,60.0,1470.0,1540.0,70.0
+4500,770.0,840.0,70.0,1680.0,1760.0,80.0
+5000,880.0,960.0,80.0,1890.0,1980.0,90.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..3e4ec0a6d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+{
+ "type": "bar",
+ "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "receipts",
+ "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "format": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0
+ },
+ "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
+ "series": [
+ {
+ "key": "noExpenses",
+ "name": "No business expenses",
+ "color": "primary"
+ },
+ {
+ "key": "highExpenses",
+ "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts",
+ "color": "secondary"
+ }
+ ],
+ "data": [
+ {
+ "receipts": "£500",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,000",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,500",
+ "noExpenses": 100.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,000",
+ "noExpenses": 200.0,
+ "highExpenses": 100.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,500",
+ "noExpenses": 300.0,
+ "highExpenses": 125.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 150.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£5,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ }
+ ]
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..32b0d7dee
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+receipts,no_expenses_actual_expenses,no_expenses_baseline_taxable_profit,no_expenses_reform_taxable_profit,no_expenses_tax_reduction,expenses_75_percent_actual_expenses,expenses_75_percent_baseline_taxable_profit,expenses_75_percent_reform_taxable_profit,expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction
+500,0,0,0,0.0,375.0,0,0,0.0
+1000,0,0,0,0.0,750.0,0,0,0.0
+1500,0,500,0,100.0,1125.0,375.0,0,75.0
+2000,0,1000,0,200.0,1500.0,500.0,0,100.0
+2500,0,1500,0,300.0,1875.0,625.0,0,125.0
+3000,0,2000,0,400.0,2250.0,750.0,0,150.0
+3500,0,2500,500,400.0,2625.0,875.0,500,75.0
+4000,0,3000,1000,400.0,3000.0,1000.0,1000.0,0.0
+4500,0,3500,1500,400.0,3375.0,1125.0,1125.0,0.0
+5000,0,4000,2000,400.0,3750.0,1250.0,1250.0,0.0
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..2fef7afc3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg
@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..c1eea2abc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..1e8e5d52f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
+The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html).
+
+In the examples below, a basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more.
+
+This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://uk-autumn-budget-2026.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) shows how it combines with the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
+
+## What changes in April 2027?
+
+Budget 2025 had already set savings and property rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. The comparison here therefore measures the additional two-point increase announced in 2026, using the existing 2027 rules as the baseline.
+
+| Income tax band | Already scheduled for 2027–28 | Budget 2026 rate | Change |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Basic | 22% | 24% | +2 percentage points |
+| Higher | 42% | 44% | +2 percentage points |
+| Additional | 47% | 49% | +2 percentage points |
+
+The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) sets the ordering from April 2027: employment, pension and trading income first; property next; savings after that; and dividends last. Allowances first reduce income other than property, savings or dividends. Taxable income then fills the bands in that order, so employment and rental income can push savings interest into a higher band.
+
+## Savers pay the higher rates on interest above their allowances
+
+The Personal Savings Allowance remains £1,000 for basic-rate taxpayers, £500 for higher-rate taxpayers and £0 for additional-rate taxpayers. People with low other income can also qualify for a starting rate of 0% on up to £5,000 of savings interest. These allowances depend on total income, as [HMRC's savings guidance](https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings/how-much-is-tax-free) explains. Interest earned inside an ISA remains exempt from income tax.
+
+These hypothetical adults live in England and receive only the wages and interest shown. Their wages use the Personal Allowance, and none qualifies for the starting rate for savings. The table isolates income tax on interest.
+
+| Annual employment income | Annual savings interest | Personal Savings Allowance | Interest taxed above 0% | Tax before the Budget change | Tax after | Extra annual tax |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| £30,000 | £500 | £1,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |
+| £30,000 | £2,000 | £1,000 | £1,000 | £220 | £240 | £20 |
+| £60,000 | £2,000 | £500 | £1,500 | £630 | £660 | £30 |
+
+For the basic-rate example, £2,000 − £1,000 = £1,000 faces the savings basic rate: £1,000 × 22% = £220 before, against £1,000 × 24% = £240 after. The higher-rate example pays an extra £1,500 × 2% = £30.
+
+
+The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income levels, each additional £500 of interest above the allowance adds £10 to the tax increase.
+
+```chart
+{
+ "type": "bar",
+ "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "interest",
+ "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
+ "format": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0
+ },
+ "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
+ "series": [
+ {
+ "key": "basic",
+ "name": "£30,000 salary",
+ "color": "negative"
+ },
+ {
+ "key": "higher",
+ "name": "£60,000 salary",
+ "color": "secondary"
+ }
+ ],
+ "data": [
+ {
+ "interest": "£500",
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£1,000",
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 10.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£1,500",
+ "basic": 10.0,
+ "higher": 20.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£2,000",
+ "basic": 20.0,
+ "higher": 30.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£2,500",
+ "basic": 30.0,
+ "higher": 40.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£3,000",
+ "basic": 40.0,
+ "higher": 50.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£3,500",
+ "basic": 50.0,
+ "higher": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£4,000",
+ "basic": 60.0,
+ "higher": 70.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£4,500",
+ "basic": 70.0,
+ "higher": 80.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": "£5,000",
+ "basic": 80.0,
+ "higher": 90.0
+ }
+ ]
+}
+```
+
+## Landlords' mortgage-interest relief rises too
+
+For individual residential landlords, mortgage interest normally produces a tax reduction rather than a deduction from rental profits. The reduction is limited by finance costs, property profits, adjusted total income and the tax liability. [HMRC's explanation of residential finance-cost relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/changes-to-tax-relief-for-residential-landlords-how-its-worked-out-including-case-studies) describes these limits.
+
+From April 2027 the relief follows the property basic rate. This Budget therefore raises it from the already scheduled 22% to 24%. That offsets part of the tax increase for landlords with eligible finance costs.
+
+Consider two adults in England, each with £12,000 of rent, £2,000 of allowable non-finance expenses and £4,000 of qualifying mortgage interest. Deducting actual non-finance expenses leaves £10,000 of property profit. Both can use the full finance-cost reduction.
+
+| Calculation, 2027–28 | £30,000 salary: before | £30,000 salary: after | £60,000 salary: before | £60,000 salary: after |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Property profit | £10,000 | £10,000 | £10,000 | £10,000 |
+| Rate on that profit | 22% | 24% | 42% | 44% |
+| Tax before finance-cost relief | £2,200 | £2,400 | £4,200 | £4,400 |
+| Finance-cost reduction | £880 | £960 | £880 | £960 |
+| Tax attributable to property | £1,320 | £1,440 | £3,320 | £3,440 |
+| Extra annual income tax | — | £120 | — | £120 |
+
+Both pay £200 more before relief, while their finance-cost reduction rises by £4,000 × 2% = £80. Their net increase is £200 − £80 = £120. A mortgage-free landlord with the same profit pays £200 more. Both tax bands rise by two points, explaining the identical increases despite different starting liabilities.
+
+The property **rate** increase excludes Scottish taxpayers, whose rental income follows Scottish rules. Finance-cost relief is a separate calculation. The [Finance Act 2026 amendment](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/schedule/1/paragraph/40/enacted) ties it to the UK property basic rate without a Scottish exception. Applying that rule, a Scottish landlord able to use the full reduction on £4,000 of eligible finance costs receives £80 more relief, reducing their income tax by £80 if nothing else changes. A mortgage-free Scottish landlord has no change from this measure. The savings increase still applies across the UK.
+
+## The Treasury forecasts revenue of £1.13 billion in 2028–29
+
+The Treasury costs the savings and property changes separately. Their sum reaches £1,130 million in 2028–29 and £1,045 million in 2031–32.
+
+| Exchequer revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Property income rates | 0 | 35 | 575 | 435 | 445 | 455 |
+| Savings income rates | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 |
+| Combined | 15 | 160 | 1,130 | 955 | 1,000 | 1,045 |
+
+These government receipts forecasts differ from annual household liabilities. The [Treasury policy costings, #page 74-75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=74) allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. A static calculation holds those choices fixed.
+
+## Methodology
+
+The examples isolate the newly announced 2027–28 changes, including finance-cost relief, holding income and expenses constant. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans or other reliefs. They show tax attributable to each income source, rather than household net income after benefits.
+
+The examples use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the pre-Budget policy baseline and parameter changes in the dashboard's [`unearned_income_rates_up` measure](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55/src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py). The calculations check tax changes against independent arithmetic.
+
+This draft reports hypothetical examples and Treasury forecasts. PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person and decile estimates are pending the population run. That run is pinned to the dashboard's certified national dataset `a6299504`; population forecast inputs and model-coverage limits must accompany its results.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..d82f34cad
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) announces an increase in the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027. The allowance covers eligible trading and miscellaneous income. For an employee paying 20% income tax on their side income, the extra £2,000 deduction can reduce annual income tax by £400. The reduction depends on receipts, expenses and how much tax the individual would otherwise pay.
+
+This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://uk-autumn-budget-2026.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+
+## How the allowance works
+
+The allowance is an alternative to deducting actual business expenses. Gross receipts are the money received before expenses; profit is what remains after those expenses. A person with £4,000 of receipts and £500 of allowable expenses has £3,500 of profit before considering the allowance.
+
+Under [HMRC's trading allowance guidance](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tax-free-allowances-on-property-and-trading-income), an eligible person can choose the allowance or actual expenses. They cannot deduct both against the same receipts. If receipts are within the allowance, full relief can make the taxable amount zero. The allowance cannot create a tax loss.
+
+There is one allowance per individual across their eligible trades and miscellaneous income, rather than a separate allowance for each activity. The allocation between sources follows [section 783AK of the Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/5/section/783AK). The separate property income allowance does not increase under this measure.
+
+## Three people with the same receipts
+
+Consider three hypothetical single adults in England in 2027–28. Each earns £30,000 from employment and receives £4,000 from a side business. They have no other income, dependants, student loan repayments or benefit entitlements. Their trading profits remain in the 20% income tax band. Their costs differ.
+
+The table isolates income tax on the side business, holding receipts and expenses fixed.
+
+| Annual side-business receipts | Actual expenses | Taxable amount under current rules | Taxable amount under new rules | Income tax before | Income tax after | Annual tax reduction |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| £4,000 | £500 | £3,000 | £1,000 | £600 | £200 | £400 |
+| £4,000 | £2,500 | £1,500 | £1,000 | £300 | £200 | £100 |
+| £4,000 | £3,500 | £500 | £500 | £100 | £100 | £0 |
+
+In the first case, the allowance exceeds expenses under both rules. Taxable income falls from £4,000 − £1,000 = £3,000 to £4,000 − £3,000 = £1,000. The tax reduction is £2,000 × 20% = £400.
+
+In the second case, actual expenses provide the larger deduction under current law. The £3,000 allowance then exceeds those £2,500 expenses by £500, reducing tax by £500 × 20% = £100.
+
+In the third case, actual expenses exceed both allowances. The individual continues to deduct £3,500, so taxable income and tax do not change.
+
+At a 40% marginal rate, the same calculations give reductions of £800, £200 and £0, assuming no tax-band changes or other interactions.
+
+## From £500 to £5,000 of side income
+
+The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assumes no business expenses; the other assumes expenses equal 75% of receipts. Each calculation chooses the larger deduction in each scenario.
+
+```chart
+{
+ "type": "bar",
+ "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "receipts",
+ "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "format": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0
+ },
+ "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
+ "series": [
+ {
+ "key": "noExpenses",
+ "name": "No business expenses",
+ "color": "primary"
+ },
+ {
+ "key": "highExpenses",
+ "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts",
+ "color": "secondary"
+ }
+ ],
+ "data": [
+ {
+ "receipts": "£500",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,000",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,500",
+ "noExpenses": 100.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,000",
+ "noExpenses": 200.0,
+ "highExpenses": 100.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,500",
+ "noExpenses": 300.0,
+ "highExpenses": 125.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 150.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£5,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ }
+ ]
+}
+```
+
+With no expenses, the tax reduction rises between £1,000 and £3,000 of receipts, then stays at £400. With expenses equal to 75% of receipts, the reduction reaches £150 at £3,000 of receipts and falls to zero at £4,000: actual expenses then equal the new £3,000 allowance.
+
+## National Insurance and benefit interactions
+
+[HMRC's National Insurance guidance](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86052) confirms that the trading allowance also reduces the profits used to calculate Class 4 contributions. However, all the side-business examples above remain below the [£12,570 Class 4 lower profits limit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions). They have no Class 4 reduction; employment National Insurance is unchanged.
+
+Universal Credit uses separate self-employment income rules. The allowance itself does not reduce income for Universal Credit purposes, as HMRC's allowance guidance explains. A full household calculation must also account for any change in tax paid and the benefit rules that apply to that household.
+
+The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
+
+## Treasury costing
+
+Table 6.1, row 15, gives the following official forecast. These are reductions in Exchequer receipts, expressed below as positive costs; they are not PolicyEngine microsimulation estimates.
+
+| Fiscal year | Treasury cost (£ million) |
+| --- | --- |
+| 2026–27 | 0 |
+| 2027–28 | 0 |
+| 2028–29 | 225 |
+| 2029–30 | 165 |
+| 2030–31 | 175 |
+| 2031–32 | 180 |
+
+The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. A household's tax-year liability and the government's forecast of receipts by fiscal year are different quantities.
+
+## Methodology and coverage
+
+The worked examples isolate the allowance increase and use hypothetical households. They hold earnings, receipts and expenses fixed, assume the individual selects the larger deduction, and exclude losses, behavioural responses and other tax or benefit interactions.
+
+The household calculations use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the dashboard's `trading_allowance_raise` measure. They supply both gross receipts and profit so the model can represent actual expenses, and check the resulting tax changes against independent arithmetic.
+
+In the population data, gross receipts are unavailable. The pinned model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) uses an approximation that can overstate or understate the reform's effect for individual records. It also does not apply this allowance to its separate miscellaneous-income input, although eligible miscellaneous income is within the announced policy. These coverage limits matter when interpreting national results.
+
+This draft reports hypothetical examples and Treasury forecasts. PolicyEngine national cost, affected-person and decile estimates are pending the population run, pinned to the dashboard's certified national dataset `a6299504`.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
index adc5aa3ae..50f3c400b 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
@@ -1,4 +1,22 @@
[
+ {
+ "title": "Autumn Budget 2026: higher tax on savings and property income",
+ "description": "Worked examples of the additional two percentage point increase from April 2027, including savings allowances and landlords' mortgage-interest relief.",
+ "date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
+ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"],
+ "authors": ["ziming-hua"],
+ "filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md",
+ "image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Autumn Budget 2026: raising the trading allowance",
+ "description": "The trading allowance rises from £1,000 to £3,000. We show how receipts and actual expenses determine the income tax reduction.",
+ "date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
+ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"],
+ "authors": ["ziming-hua"],
+ "filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md",
+ "image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg"
+ },
{
"title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency",
"description": "We estimate the surcharge raises \u00a3410 million in 2028-29 from owner-occupied main residences in England before behavioural responses, 39% of it from 10 constituencies.",
From 7f90092fa6e6f28f68b419c4edf1bef166d851b9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:54:17 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 02/36] Add provisional dashboard population results to draft
explainers
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md | 18 +-
.../population-preview/manifest.json | 198 +++
.../population-preview/summary.json | 1189 +++++++++++++++++
.../budgetary_impact.csv | 7 +
.../distributional_impact.csv | 61 +
.../trading_allowance_raise/metrics.csv | 7 +
.../trading_allowance_raise/receipt.json | 453 +++++++
.../winners_losers.csv | 67 +
.../budgetary_impact.csv | 7 +
.../distributional_impact.csv | 61 +
.../unearned_income_rates_up/metrics.csv | 7 +
.../unearned_income_rates_up/receipt.json | 173 +++
.../winners_losers.csv | 67 +
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json | 76 +-
.../verify_population_preview.py | 93 ++
...budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 35 +-
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 50 +-
17 files changed, 2541 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/manifest.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/summary.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/budgetary_impact.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/distributional_impact.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/metrics.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/receipt.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/winners_losers.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/budgetary_impact.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/distributional_impact.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/metrics.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/receipt.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/winners_losers.csv
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/verify_population_preview.py
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
index b59c5b21d..f063e833c 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
@@ -22,13 +22,23 @@ The article chart blocks reproduce `savings-interest-chart.json` and `trading-al
Retain the dashboard's adopted `policyengine` 6.11.1 bundle, with UK 2.151.0, core 3.33.3 and national data cut `a6299504`. The certificate, full dataset ID and checksum are recorded in `provenance.json`. The newer candidate in policyengine.py PR725 is awaiting certification/adoption. A future update must change the package and dataset provenance together and regenerate the analysis.
-No population microdata were available for this draft. It contains no PolicyEngine national estimates, decile results or affected-person counts. Treasury forecasts are labelled separately and are not a substitute for those calculations. The publicly committed dashboard results checked on 28 October did not yet include these two Budget-day measures; older candidate savings/property charts must not be relabelled as the announced policy.
+No population microdata were downloaded locally. At 14:32 UTC the checked GitHub flat files still lacked these Budget-day measures. Vahid subsequently shared a preview with provisional outputs generated at 14:34 UTC, fetched at 14:46 UTC. The drafts now reuse its digest-addressed public aggregate outputs, with the exact manifest, receipts and eight CSVs retained in `population-preview/`. Older candidate charts and stale GitHub flat files must not be relabelled as the announced policy. The preview has no scored combined artifact; its five-measure chart must not be described as a jointly simulated full Budget package.
-When access and certified Budget-day outputs are available, use the national dataset above and the dashboard's October 2026 OBR forecast wrapper on both baseline and reform. Score each provision separately. Reconcile fiscal-year Treasury receipts with modelled tax-year liabilities, documenting behavioural and timing differences. Retain survey confidentiality; publish aggregates only.
+The provisional national outputs use the exact dataset above with the dashboard's October 2026 OBR forecast wrapper on both baseline and reform. Each provision is scored separately. The source commit is `0d9dccb2`; its reform definitions and October forecast input file match household reference commit `b50787aa` byte for byte. Series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the underlying calibration remains pre-Budget.
+
+Verify the snapshot without downloading microdata or any other files:
+
+```sh
+python3 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/verify_population_preview.py
+```
+
+The verifier checks the eight CSV hashes, certified execution identity, dataset checksum, provisional status, disclosure floor and complete decile grids. It writes `population-preview/summary.json`. Both measures are `provisional` and their reconciliation is `awaiting_source`; passing the disclosure floor does not mean final review approval. The snapshots are public aggregates only.
+
+Treasury forecasts are labelled separately. Compare fiscal-year Treasury receipts with the model's annual government-balance effects, documenting behavioural, timing and coverage differences. Do not attribute a particular discrepancy to one of those factors before reconciliation. No separate winner/loser shares or absolute affected-person counts are exported. The field `people_affected` is a percentage, using an absolute household-income-change threshold of more than 0.01%, not millions of people or a taxpayer count.
## Checks before publication
-- Add the outstanding national revenue, affected-person and decile results requested in the team brief, with provenance and model-coverage limits.
+- Replace or confirm the provisional national revenue and decile results after final reconciliation. Add absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares when the producer exports those quantities; do not infer them from average changes or the affected percentage.
- Confirm the treatment of Scottish landlords' finance-cost relief against the final Budget implementation. The pinned model links that relief to the UK property basic rate even for Scotland.
- Check trading allowance coverage: gross receipts and actual expenses are needed to model the deduction choice; the pinned model does not apply the allowance to its separate miscellaneous-income input.
- Verify the final public dashboard link and add links to these explainers within the dashboard. The source checkout's README supplies the current Vercel dashboard URL.
@@ -40,4 +50,4 @@ The two articles use the site's native chart blocks and cover assets. No runtime
`make format`, `make lint`, `make typecheck` and `make test` passed. The tests ran on Node 26.12.1: 6,042 app tests and 508 website tests passed, with 10 app tests skipped by the existing suite. After inserting the final chart data, the chart-parser and post-metadata checks passed again (18 tests). All 23 household comparisons and 20 curve points passed independent arithmetic checks.
-Browser access to the local preview was declined, so visual preview remains outstanding. The SVG cover XML and native chart specs were validated, but this does not confirm page layout at desktop or mobile widths.
+After adding the provisional national sections, snapshot verification and the article/chart checks passed again. Browser access to the local preview was declined, so visual preview remains outstanding. The SVG cover XML and native chart specs were validated, but this does not confirm page layout at desktop or mobile widths.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/manifest.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/manifest.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..85018bfdf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/manifest.json
@@ -0,0 +1,198 @@
+{
+ "basis": {
+ "calibration": {
+ "source": "the certified dataset pinned by the installed policyengine bundle: Microcosm UK from policyengine 6.10.1, policyengine-uk-data before it",
+ "status": "pre_budget",
+ "vintage": "as pinned by the installed bundle"
+ },
+ "forecast": {
+ "source": "OBR EFO October 2026",
+ "status": "updated",
+ "vintage": "OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026 (Annex A, Tables A.1 and A.3), applied over policyengine-uk's March 2026 growth rates by src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json"
+ },
+ "notes": "The forecast is rebased on the Budget's OBR forecast: every simulation, baseline and reform alike, is built on the October 2026 growth rates in src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json (CPI, RPI, average earnings, house prices; the September 2027 CPI gap). Series that file does not list keep the March 2026 path the installed policyengine-uk ships; the receipt records the exact model version."
+ },
+ "budget": {
+ "date": "2026-10-28",
+ "id": "uk-autumn-budget-2026"
+ },
+ "combined": {},
+ "execution": {
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "identity": {
+ "certificate": {
+ "bundle_version": "6.11.1",
+ "certificate_sha256": "f2e6fc9faafab32b50c1c76067fb070ae9686b6f375e44417776de16e9c3521f",
+ "certified_by": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
+ "certified_dataset_sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
+ "certified_for_core_version": "3.33.3",
+ "certified_for_model_version": "2.151.0",
+ "compatibility_basis": "built_with_model_package",
+ "country_id": "uk"
+ },
+ "certification_status": "certified",
+ "core": {
+ "name": "policyengine-core",
+ "version": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "country_id": "uk",
+ "data": {
+ "build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "build_model_version": "2.151.0",
+ "data_package": "microcosm-data",
+ "dataset": "microcosm_uk_2024_25",
+ "dataset_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "dataset_sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
+ "dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "release_manifest_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "release_version": "0.1.0"
+ },
+ "model": {
+ "name": "policyengine-uk",
+ "version": "2.151.0"
+ },
+ "schema_version": 1,
+ "wrapper": {
+ "name": "policyengine",
+ "version": "6.11.1"
+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "flat_aliases": {},
+ "flat_files": {},
+ "measures": {
+ "domestic_electricity_zero_vat": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/domestic_electricity_zero_vat/4b0323419c2ff3c6",
+ "artifact_sha256": "4b0323419c2ff3c650e9b596492711d606e4c6b93cbb47b20f255706f451ee4a",
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "description": "VAT on domestic electricity is 0% instead of 5% from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027: in Great Britain to March 2027 and across the UK from April 2027. The model's baseline has no zero rate, so the measure covers the whole period, as the Treasury costs it. It applies to electricity spending only. 2026-27 carries the October to March share of a year's electricity use (about 57%), not a share of its days; 2027-28 its 91 days of 366.",
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "name": "Zero VAT on domestic electricity",
+ "outputs_sha256": "ccfdd7e4fd79735f382cfc95b6323a3331097e4180ec9b1148042d506699b94e",
+ "receipt_sha256": "f2535334472c0c38387923c0fe3cf72e928a90a107e32005b7098eb776cdf7f6",
+ "reconciliation": {
+ "responsiveness_status": "responsive",
+ "summary_status": "awaiting_source"
+ },
+ "status": "provisional",
+ "unsupported_years": [],
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ },
+ "fuel_duty_rise_deferral": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/fuel_duty_rise_deferral/69cf8fc0ef40d810",
+ "artifact_sha256": "69cf8fc0ef40d810339521eec3efddf9e297da87ecadc22c0fb4b1aad1ce2378",
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "description": "The 5p cut in fuel duty is kept: the main rate stays at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027, so the rise due on 1 January 2027 and the March and April 2027 steps do not happen. From 1 July 2027 it returns to current law's 60.59p a litre, rising with RPI each April. Rates are day-weighted to fiscal years, and the VAT on the lower pump price is included.",
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "name": "Fuel duty cut extended",
+ "outputs_sha256": "f035235441044cfb56f3571aba6ec60b2526406338426da61f45e79e8ffa1fc1",
+ "receipt_sha256": "8f70fcd277ecbb80982e876b54aec7dcfb1fa765d515165def1ddfcfdd1ac194",
+ "reconciliation": {
+ "responsiveness_status": "responsive",
+ "summary_status": "awaiting_source"
+ },
+ "status": "provisional",
+ "unsupported_years": [],
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ },
+ "household_energy_payment_2026": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/household_energy_payment_2026/ff7e323670ad8bba",
+ "artifact_sha256": "ff7e323670ad8bba5b5aed3ec5d3a7d6d68a13a1e28d9d1df068812857c6a496",
+ "attestation": {
+ "checker": "PREVIEW ONLY \u2014 not a signature (checker)",
+ "measure_id": "household_energy_payment_2026",
+ "reason": "PREVIEW ONLY \u2014 not a signature. Local preview placeholder; nobody has reviewed this receipt. Checked budget_measures.household_energy_payment_2026: in 2026-27 only it adds the payment to ebr_council_tax_rebate for households in England whose council tax band is A, B, C or D, leaving every other household and year at the native amount. The receipt's outputs were compared with the hand-computed households in tests/test_reforms.py.",
+ "receipt_sha256": "920cbb9051d16e1ca77c4d0c517fbbd93615b8cebef60a4772adf10e1c1fd44a",
+ "released_at": "2026-10-28T14:40:00+00:00",
+ "second": "PREVIEW ONLY \u2014 not a signature (second)"
+ },
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "description": "A one-off \u00a3100 payment from January 2027 to each household in England in property valuation bands A to D (the lowest four of England's eight), up to 20 million households, paid into bank accounts and counted as household income in 2026-27. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland receive a share of the funding instead, which is not modelled.",
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "name": "Household Energy Payment",
+ "outputs_sha256": "07f3c82d557a12ed13094291e5b6c30666447fef161cace174a93cd98af11cca",
+ "receipt_sha256": "c1bbc5e6e34a2dc78fd922d73b0ed387eda37a8dce56b5ed5d291abaa7a2a63b",
+ "reconciliation": {
+ "responsiveness_status": "responsive",
+ "summary_status": "awaiting_source"
+ },
+ "status": "provisional",
+ "unsupported_years": [],
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ },
+ "trading_allowance_raise": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1",
+ "artifact_sha256": "230c4665427e0bb1a8ab3c951753252190ff6f8fe86207e5d336b0616e465baf",
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "description": "From 6 April 2027 the trading allowance, which relieves trading receipts in place of actual expenses, rises from \u00a31,000 to \u00a33,000, for income tax and Class 4 National Insurance. Without gross receipts in the data, a profit within the allowance is treated as fully relieved, so the cost may be overstated.",
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "name": "Trading allowance raised to \u00a33,000",
+ "outputs_sha256": "c98e404df6c02459d8d1c10e8de5417ac538fd7876f2048f7bfcd0c48598d7bc",
+ "receipt_sha256": "12e5b9f9ecaa3c9f6e967ad30a71c26e0156a8468a8edde5377a1400393a0f3c",
+ "reconciliation": {
+ "responsiveness_status": "responsive",
+ "summary_status": "awaiting_source"
+ },
+ "status": "provisional",
+ "unsupported_years": [],
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ },
+ "unearned_income_rates_up": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d",
+ "artifact_sha256": "8bd7d211ae66c19d63f7f47dd1a32645834f41270588ec7a87bcfd700092d242",
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "description": "From 6 April 2027 the income tax rates on savings income rise to 24%, 44% and 49% at the basic, higher and additional rates across the UK, and those on property income to the same rates in England, Wales and Northern Ireland: 2 percentage points above current law, which already includes Budget 2025's rises. Finance cost relief for landlords follows the property basic rate, so rises to 24%. Dividend rates are unchanged. Incomes are held fixed, with no behavioural response.",
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "name": "Savings and property income tax rates up",
+ "outputs_sha256": "1315fa74166dfa15139fe4693bf7df5654244db1b39b8159a0a64e5c64bfe508",
+ "receipt_sha256": "4d8611bcb02d626dd6a9170d8564325ef8cc10266fb1b62485f604571a3413f4",
+ "reconciliation": {
+ "responsiveness_status": "responsive",
+ "summary_status": "awaiting_source"
+ },
+ "status": "provisional",
+ "unsupported_years": [],
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ }
+ },
+ "release": "uk-autumn-budget-2026",
+ "revision": 5,
+ "schema": "uk-budget-dashboard/publication-manifest/v1",
+ "superseded": [],
+ "updated_at": "2026-10-28T14:35:54.732859+00:00"
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/summary.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/summary.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b2ae1496c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/summary.json
@@ -0,0 +1,1189 @@
+{
+ "status": "Provisional preview; reconciliation awaiting_source; not final approval",
+ "manifest_url": "https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/manifest.json",
+ "manifest_updated_at": "2026-10-28T14:35:54.732859+00:00",
+ "manifest_sha256": "93148ae1fc473dbb5301ca4ac283891ddf43e6ee377fdc2df0607f0a6b0b1b7a",
+ "units": {
+ "budget_change_gbp_bn": "Annual government balance change, GBP billion; positive revenue, negative cost",
+ "mean_household_change_gbp": "Weighted mean annual net income change, GBP per household; includes unaffected households",
+ "income_change_pct": "Decile total income change / decile total baseline income * 100",
+ "people_affected_pct": "Percentage of people in valid-decile households with abs(change / max(baseline income, GBP 1)) > 0.0001"
+ },
+ "limitations": [
+ "No affected headcounts, household shares, winner/loser shares or survey support counts exported",
+ "Static estimates; Treasury post-behavioural fiscal-year forecasts require separate reconciliation",
+ "Trading allowance lacks gross receipts and may overstate cost"
+ ],
+ "measures": {
+ "unearned_income_rates_up": {
+ "source_commit": "0d9dccb23e4b4181dad49c0004fc9c65348d408b",
+ "generated_at": "2026-10-28T14:34:26.864876+00:00",
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diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/budgetary_impact.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/budgetary_impact.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..843856403
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/budgetary_impact.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,value
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2026,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2027,-0.11211049920380475
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diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/distributional_impact.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/distributional_impact.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..0511c06ff
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/distributional_impact.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,decile,value
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diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/metrics.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/metrics.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..11310714a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/metrics.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,people_affected,gini_change,poverty_change_pp,poverty_change_pct
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2026,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2027,0.927300325538701,-8.349973017775194e-07,0.0,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2028,0.9286182837759142,-3.244415933840377e-07,0.0,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2029,0.8154265353796385,9.16297028044841e-06,0.0,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2030,0.8380164892515954,9.96113804150047e-06,0.0,0.0
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2031,0.812193590620492,5.42499477041384e-06,0.0,0.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/receipt.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/receipt.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..90dd8831f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/receipt.json
@@ -0,0 +1,453 @@
+{
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+ },
+ "notes": "The forecast is rebased on the Budget's OBR forecast: every simulation, baseline and reform alike, is built on the October 2026 growth rates in src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json (CPI, RPI, average earnings, house prices; the September 2027 CPI gap). Series that file does not list keep the March 2026 path the installed policyengine-uk ships; the receipt records the exact model version."
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+ },
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+ "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-vahid/59114aef-a9b7-4663-a8bc-32b2c6146551/scratchpad/run7/src/uk_budget_data/cli.py",
+ "generate",
+ "--artifacts",
+ "--backend",
+ "modal",
+ "--reforms",
+ "trading_allowance_raise"
+ ],
+ "git_sha": "0d9dccb23e4b4181dad49c0004fc9c65348d408b",
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+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/winners_losers.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/winners_losers.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..aa99d9ba8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/trading_allowance_raise/winners_losers.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,decile,avg_change
+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2026,1,0.0
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+trading_allowance_raise,"Trading allowance raised to £3,000",2026,all,0.0
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diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/budgetary_impact.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/budgetary_impact.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..da37a0595
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/budgetary_impact.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,value
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,0.6642382271213031
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,0.6957731772288318
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,0.7276593169820835
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,0.7623675377687243
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,0.7933736065368444
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/distributional_impact.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/distributional_impact.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..2d308558a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/distributional_impact.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,decile,value
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,10th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,1st,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,2nd,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,3rd,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,4th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,5th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,6th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,7th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,8th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,9th,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,10th,-0.06764978971604362
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,1st,-0.04985863048727435
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,2nd,-0.014274726231957425
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,3rd,-0.01493700611440189
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,4th,-0.015130665063043254
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,5th,-0.011040999093289379
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,6th,-0.015457392166954702
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,7th,-0.01679145061801241
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,8th,-0.02924222878277037
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,9th,-0.0424816465100822
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,10th,-0.0691861186482591
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,1st,-0.051797994354371796
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,2nd,-0.01562814402382634
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,3rd,-0.01507923160657066
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,4th,-0.015199990369575169
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,5th,-0.012557869706653325
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,6th,-0.014460880161614037
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,7th,-0.017821793400241998
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,8th,-0.030450986910411898
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,9th,-0.04241102691117292
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,10th,-0.07041327236762773
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,1st,-0.05322985172426894
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,2nd,-0.015861030033688512
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,3rd,-0.015820633619852753
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,4th,-0.016640010814691405
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,5th,-0.01186750640488552
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,6th,-0.014739892298832517
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,7th,-0.019256034827620797
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,8th,-0.031114843422502994
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,9th,-0.04317103405831868
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,10th,-0.07181165560065904
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,1st,-0.05610692023915448
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,2nd,-0.015838490300712545
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,3rd,-0.016970819222280532
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,4th,-0.01437706071070637
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,5th,-0.014513169605216732
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,6th,-0.010245777552623752
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,7th,-0.024164401723622005
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,8th,-0.03191810416734249
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,9th,-0.04373162273763173
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,10th,-0.07173645374140333
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,1st,-0.05832341572449926
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,2nd,-0.014635606422439709
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,3rd,-0.017848939980989183
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,4th,-0.014809745978892685
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,5th,-0.014729454378751861
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,6th,-0.010139823686994792
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,7th,-0.025662723350375474
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,8th,-0.03178995628746156
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,9th,-0.04569066183442702
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/metrics.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/metrics.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..dfb46f33e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/metrics.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,people_affected,gini_change,poverty_change_pp,poverty_change_pct
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,10.673344206596365,-0.00028251218573879843,0.00028419495,0.002069667
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,11.008162293996863,-0.00028521977216218057,0.0026416779,0.019280192
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,11.211334671637678,-0.0002876005452886594,0.0005235672,0.0038050439
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,11.515220448098733,-0.0002894803540428024,0.0011587143,0.008401513
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,11.677047270799843,-0.0002925173508581513,0.0025806427,0.018773075
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/receipt.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/receipt.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..886a56441
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/receipt.json
@@ -0,0 +1,173 @@
+{
+ "dashboard": {
+ "basis": {
+ "calibration": {
+ "source": "the certified dataset pinned by the installed policyengine bundle: Microcosm UK from policyengine 6.10.1, policyengine-uk-data before it",
+ "status": "pre_budget",
+ "vintage": "as pinned by the installed bundle"
+ },
+ "forecast": {
+ "source": "OBR EFO October 2026",
+ "status": "updated",
+ "vintage": "OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026 (Annex A, Tables A.1 and A.3), applied over policyengine-uk's March 2026 growth rates by src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json"
+ },
+ "notes": "The forecast is rebased on the Budget's OBR forecast: every simulation, baseline and reform alike, is built on the October 2026 growth rates in src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json (CPI, RPI, average earnings, house prices; the September 2027 CPI gap). Series that file does not list keep the March 2026 path the installed policyengine-uk ships; the receipt records the exact model version."
+ },
+ "composition": null,
+ "config_baseline": {
+ "binding": "content",
+ "kind": "current_law",
+ "name": "configured baseline",
+ "reform_sha256": null,
+ "representation": null
+ },
+ "data_limits": [],
+ "data_limits_registry_sha256": "c48a8fe082168969b5c3e6d6689a630c9f47ac64fa9de7efd11a055d2cab1a4b",
+ "dataset_years": [
+ 2024,
+ 2025,
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031,
+ 2032
+ ],
+ "description": "From 6 April 2027 the income tax rates on savings income rise to 24%, 44% and 49% at the basic, higher and additional rates across the UK, and those on property income to the same rates in England, Wales and Northern Ireland: 2 percentage points above current law, which already includes Budget 2025's rises. Finance cost relief for landlords follows the property basic rate, so rises to 24%. Dividend rates are unchanged. Incomes are held fixed, with no behavioural response.",
+ "digests": {
+ "execution_identity_sha256": "3db871d8c1fcebfefdfd938e39512408196621a4f5d7374ad3abd5b586dc0d03",
+ "outputs_sha256": "1315fa74166dfa15139fe4693bf7df5654244db1b39b8159a0a64e5c64bfe508",
+ "receipt_sha256": "4d8611bcb02d626dd6a9170d8564325ef8cc10266fb1b62485f604571a3413f4"
+ },
+ "disclosure_floor": {
+ "checked": true,
+ "survey_households": 3,
+ "thin_cells": [],
+ "thin_cells_in_tables": false
+ },
+ "files": {
+ "age_impact.csv": "2c5ead6535d59e4ca507059d280ee8543d5ff39d6759ec3b86ebbbb35f54b2c5",
+ "budgetary_impact.csv": "76a9bcf35b7427af58098ef063a873afdff4b3eccc84b55782b5e7bfc9595bc0",
+ "distributional_impact.csv": "0d7fc5da79518ad6e255acfd7fb5469eb483117849afea8a2db57c70e936ba48",
+ "household_scatter_binned.csv": "1930be90eda9c3459a493fc3b2b51626fac93653fd5b22214746e04bcb31d7b3",
+ "income_curve.csv": "1b470f7215bf16eed979f987e0f87575bb78cfe8a077c9ecbf47e3fbe175dde4",
+ "metrics.csv": "abf2e4f4fdc4276588ac2d89fdec83df246aa517fda8590fd20d3ccd368aa15c",
+ "poverty_inequality.csv": "e0ae3a92c9f2341fdd61f51cefd752f307b78e8fd1f9badf9abb153c4a7d76f3",
+ "winners_losers.csv": "651d1c59976cdb1faab8d5f87ef9099aa67eb37d6c24f85707088e09f27aa8f0"
+ },
+ "generated_at": "2026-10-28T14:34:26.864876+00:00",
+ "generator_argv": [
+ "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-vahid/59114aef-a9b7-4663-a8bc-32b2c6146551/scratchpad/run7/src/uk_budget_data/cli.py",
+ "generate",
+ "--artifacts",
+ "--backend",
+ "modal",
+ "--reforms",
+ "unearned_income_rates_up"
+ ],
+ "git_sha": "0d9dccb23e4b4181dad49c0004fc9c65348d408b",
+ "key": "unearned_income_rates_up",
+ "measure_ids": [
+ "unearned_income_rates_up"
+ ],
+ "member_outputs_sha256": null,
+ "members": null,
+ "model_limits": [],
+ "model_limits_registry_sha256": "9d3479f1f5ac859ab6bd2644aaff443a29c0dad3f2944b1ef98866028f9d4b89",
+ "modifier_templates": {
+ "baseline": [],
+ "reform": []
+ },
+ "name": "Savings and property income tax rates up",
+ "publishable": true,
+ "reasons": [],
+ "receipt_source": "policyengine==6.11.1",
+ "tree_clean": true,
+ "unsupported_years": []
+ },
+ "execution_receipt": {
+ "baseline": {
+ "binding": "content",
+ "kind": "current_law",
+ "name": "unearned_income_rates_up baseline"
+ },
+ "certificate": {
+ "bundle_version": "6.11.1",
+ "certificate_sha256": "f2e6fc9faafab32b50c1c76067fb070ae9686b6f375e44417776de16e9c3521f",
+ "certificate_source": "packaged",
+ "certified_by": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
+ "certified_dataset_sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
+ "certified_for_core_version": "3.33.3",
+ "certified_for_model_version": "2.151.0",
+ "compatibility_basis": "built_with_model_package",
+ "country_id": "uk",
+ "tro_composition_fingerprint": "ec8e6c4194b5e1ec0acd64c8718d0eecb6b41648b53f0b453c425b516e5a4489"
+ },
+ "certification_status": "certified",
+ "core": {
+ "name": "policyengine-core",
+ "version": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "country_id": "uk",
+ "data": {
+ "build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "build_model_version": "2.151.0",
+ "data_package": "microcosm-data",
+ "dataset": "microcosm_uk_2024_25",
+ "dataset_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "dataset_sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
+ "dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "release_manifest_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
+ "release_version": "0.1.0"
+ },
+ "fiscal_year": {
+ "convention": "uk_fiscal_year",
+ "parameter_annualisation": "policyengine-uk/fiscal-year-parameters",
+ "period_start": "04-06",
+ "year_label": "start_year"
+ },
+ "model": {
+ "name": "policyengine-uk",
+ "version": "2.151.0"
+ },
+ "outputs_sha256": "1315fa74166dfa15139fe4693bf7df5654244db1b39b8159a0a64e5c64bfe508",
+ "receipt_type": "policyengine.execution_receipt",
+ "reform": {
+ "binding": "content",
+ "kind": "reform",
+ "name": "unearned_income_rates_up",
+ "reform_sha256": "e6238a8a012d3dba63b67c75f812ef5cf7931ee8ca17c35720a94ef520979638",
+ "representation": "policyengine-uk.scenario/v1"
+ },
+ "runtime": {
+ "platform": "linux",
+ "python_version": "3.13.3"
+ },
+ "schema_version": 1,
+ "supported_years": [
+ 2024,
+ 2025,
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031,
+ 2032
+ ],
+ "wrapper": {
+ "name": "policyengine",
+ "version": "6.11.1"
+ },
+ "years": [
+ 2026,
+ 2027,
+ 2028,
+ 2029,
+ 2030,
+ 2031
+ ]
+ },
+ "schema": "uk-budget-dashboard/artifact-receipt/v1"
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/winners_losers.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/winners_losers.csv
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..630647b07
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/population-preview/unearned_income_rates_up/winners_losers.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+reform_id,reform_name,year,decile,avg_change
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,1,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,10,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,2,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,3,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,4,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,5,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,6,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,7,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,8,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,9,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2026,all,0.0
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,1,-12.898118729678712
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,10,-107.13162680777542
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,2,-5.694578425096933
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,3,-6.657553598437464
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,4,-7.308607835285808
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,5,-5.999313832829491
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,6,-9.133481007058295
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,7,-10.940919104608044
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,8,-21.5078233997643
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,9,-37.036157377175726
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2027,all,-22.671638846816318
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,1,-13.41973138237426
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,10,-111.85151093127375
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,2,-6.338215310184361
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,3,-6.89447245599531
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,4,-7.530700661654769
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,5,-6.8788149502975875
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,6,-8.728224096645702
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,7,-11.809515330751909
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,8,-22.785654721608235
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,9,-37.58069636855771
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2028,all,-23.653364852788222
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,1,-13.976437998407777
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,10,-116.09418043491492
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,2,-6.498855289587565
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,3,-7.341434113128795
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,4,-8.370488863576746
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,5,-6.616069295483351
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,6,-9.026024721135434
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,7,-12.984868754512368
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,8,-23.63377334118966
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,9,-38.78140865712871
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2029,all,-24.629016272903616
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,1,-14.981320954576939
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,10,-121.49216941209389
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,2,-6.531174968146814
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,3,-8.030036431729007
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,4,-7.324763422872621
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,5,-8.224558743431283
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,6,-6.414100973437806
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,7,-16.555145381069313
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,8,-24.719282953845298
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,9,-39.874223193190204
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2030,all,-25.68817666790038
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,1,-15.740449373492428
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,10,-124.94128651158324
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,2,-6.122323367954729
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,3,-8.55083626627086
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,4,-7.717876836466778
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,5,-8.480571400003587
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,6,-6.449886317389771
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,7,-18.032240662651855
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,8,-25.156749151956337
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,9,-41.97465710374913
+unearned_income_rates_up,Savings and property income tax rates up,2031,all,-26.618450973449693
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
index e4596e2d8..143214131 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
@@ -11,26 +11,86 @@
"pull_request": 290,
"commit": "b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55",
"path": "src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py",
- "measures": ["unearned_income_rates_up", "trading_allowance_raise"]
+ "measures": [
+ "unearned_income_rates_up",
+ "trading_allowance_raise"
+ ]
},
"population": {
- "status": "pending_data_access_and_dashboard_budget_day_outputs",
+ "status": "provisional_dashboard_aggregate_outputs_available_awaiting_reconciliation",
"dataset": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504",
"sha256": "b96a8cd625b645a409c063b1de5158532708a2f0d3c3897a794a8fb0bbd5064e",
"certificate": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine.py/pull/720",
"dashboard_adoption": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/237",
"raw_microdata_used_for_households": false,
- "national_results_generated": false,
"forecast": "October 2026 OBR inputs, applied to both baseline and reform when population scoring is run",
- "replacement_policy": "Retain this adopted bundle until a later explicitly recorded update; do not silently use the candidate in policyengine.py PR725."
+ "replacement_policy": "Retain this adopted bundle until a later explicitly recorded update; do not silently use the candidate in policyengine.py PR725.",
+ "national_results_generated_locally": false,
+ "national_results_reused_from_dashboard": true,
+ "dashboard_snapshot": {
+ "manifest_revision": 5,
+ "manifest_updated_at": "2026-10-28T14:35:54.732859Z",
+ "fetched_at": "2026-10-28T14:46:46Z",
+ "base_url": "https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/",
+ "source_commit": "0d9dccb23e4b4181dad49c0004fc9c65348d408b",
+ "reform_and_forecast_files_match_household_reference": true,
+ "measures": {
+ "unearned_income_rates_up": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d",
+ "generated_at": "2026-10-28T14:34:26.864876Z"
+ },
+ "trading_allowance_raise": {
+ "artifact": "artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1",
+ "generated_at": "2026-10-28T14:34:31.676559Z"
+ }
+ },
+ "manifest_status": "provisional",
+ "reconciliation_status": "awaiting_source",
+ "combined_artifact_available": false,
+ "disclosure_floor_survey_households": 3,
+ "thin_decile_cells_recorded": false,
+ "limitations": [
+ "No absolute affected-person counts or separate winner/loser shares are exported.",
+ "people_affected is a percentage of people in households whose absolute net-income percentage change exceeds 0.01%; it is not a headcount.",
+ "Trading gross receipts are missing; the receipt warns this may overstate cost."
+ ]
+ }
},
"treasury_costings": {
"source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html",
"table": "6.1",
"units": "GBP million; positive values below indicate revenue for savings/property and cost for trading",
- "fiscal_years": ["2026-27", "2027-28", "2028-29", "2029-30", "2030-31", "2031-32"],
- "property_row_61_revenue": [0, 35, 575, 435, 445, 455],
- "savings_row_62_revenue": [15, 125, 555, 520, 555, 590],
- "trading_row_15_cost": [0, 0, 225, 165, 175, 180]
+ "fiscal_years": [
+ "2026-27",
+ "2027-28",
+ "2028-29",
+ "2029-30",
+ "2030-31",
+ "2031-32"
+ ],
+ "property_row_61_revenue": [
+ 0,
+ 35,
+ 575,
+ 435,
+ 445,
+ 455
+ ],
+ "savings_row_62_revenue": [
+ 15,
+ 125,
+ 555,
+ 520,
+ 555,
+ 590
+ ],
+ "trading_row_15_cost": [
+ 0,
+ 0,
+ 225,
+ 165,
+ 175,
+ 180
+ ]
}
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/verify_population_preview.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/verify_population_preview.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b494b2ebc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/verify_population_preview.py
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+"""Verify the saved public preview aggregates offline and rebuild their summary."""
+
+import csv
+import hashlib
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+BASE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+SNAPSHOT = BASE / "population-preview"
+SOURCE = "https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/"
+MEASURES = ("unearned_income_rates_up", "trading_allowance_raise")
+TABLES = ("budgetary_impact", "distributional_impact", "winners_losers", "metrics")
+
+
+def require(condition, message):
+ if not condition:
+ raise ValueError(message)
+
+
+def read_json(path):
+ return json.loads(path.read_text())
+
+
+def main():
+ provenance = read_json(BASE / "provenance.json")
+ manifest = read_json(SNAPSHOT / "manifest.json")
+ summary = {
+ "status": "Provisional preview; reconciliation awaiting_source; not final approval",
+ "manifest_url": SOURCE + "manifest.json",
+ "manifest_updated_at": manifest["updated_at"],
+ "manifest_sha256": hashlib.sha256((SNAPSHOT / "manifest.json").read_bytes()).hexdigest(),
+ "units": {
+ "budget_change_gbp_bn": "Annual government balance change, GBP billion; positive revenue, negative cost",
+ "mean_household_change_gbp": "Weighted mean annual net income change, GBP per household; includes unaffected households",
+ "income_change_pct": "Decile total income change / decile total baseline income * 100",
+ "people_affected_pct": "Percentage of people in valid-decile households with abs(change / max(baseline income, GBP 1)) > 0.0001",
+ },
+ "limitations": [
+ "No affected headcounts, household shares, winner/loser shares or survey support counts exported",
+ "Static estimates; Treasury post-behavioural fiscal-year forecasts require separate reconciliation",
+ "Trading allowance lacks gross receipts and may overstate cost",
+ ],
+ "measures": {},
+ }
+ for mid in MEASURES:
+ entry = manifest["measures"][mid]
+ receipt = read_json(SNAPSHOT / mid / "receipt.json")
+ dashboard, execution = receipt["dashboard"], receipt["execution_receipt"]
+ require(entry["status"] == "provisional", f"{mid}: unexpected publication status")
+ require(entry["reconciliation"]["summary_status"] == "awaiting_source", f"{mid}: unexpected reconciliation")
+ require(dashboard["publishable"] and execution["certification_status"] == "certified", f"{mid}: not publishable/certified")
+ for package, key in (("policyengine", "wrapper"), ("policyengine-uk", "model"), ("policyengine-core", "core")):
+ expected = provenance["package_versions"][package]
+ require(execution[key]["version"] == expected == manifest["execution"]["identity"][key]["version"], f"{mid}: {package} mismatch")
+ require(execution["data"]["dataset_sha256"] == provenance["population"]["sha256"], f"{mid}: dataset hash mismatch")
+ require(manifest["execution"]["identity"]["data"]["dataset_sha256"] == execution["data"]["dataset_sha256"], f"{mid}: manifest dataset mismatch")
+ require(execution["data"]["build_id"] == provenance["population"]["dataset"], f"{mid}: dataset build mismatch")
+ require(execution["certificate"]["certified_dataset_sha256"] == execution["data"]["dataset_sha256"], f"{mid}: certificate mismatch")
+ require(dashboard["digests"]["receipt_sha256"] == entry["receipt_sha256"], f"{mid}: receipt identity mismatch")
+ floor = dashboard["disclosure_floor"]
+ require(floor["checked"] and floor["survey_households"] == 3 and not floor["thin_cells_in_tables"], f"{mid}: disclosure floor failed")
+ require(not any(cell["table"] in TABLES for cell in floor["thin_cells"]), f"{mid}: thin decile cells")
+ tables = {}
+ for name in TABLES:
+ path = SNAPSHOT / mid / f"{name}.csv"
+ require(hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() == dashboard["files"][path.name], f"{mid}: {path.name} hash mismatch")
+ tables[name] = list(csv.DictReader(path.open()))
+ years = {}
+ for year in entry["years"]:
+ rows = {name: [row for row in data if int(row["year"]) == year] for name, data in tables.items()}
+ cash = {row["decile"]: float(row["avg_change"]) for row in rows["winners_losers"]}
+ percent = {int("".join(filter(str.isdigit, row["decile"]))): float(row["value"]) for row in rows["distributional_impact"]}
+ require(set(cash) == {str(i) for i in range(1, 11)} | {"all"} and set(percent) == set(range(1, 11)), f"{mid}/{year}: incomplete deciles")
+ require(len(rows["budgetary_impact"]) == len(rows["metrics"]) == 1, f"{mid}/{year}: incomplete headline")
+ years[str(year)] = {
+ "budget_change_gbp_bn": float(rows["budgetary_impact"][0]["value"]),
+ "mean_household_change_gbp": cash["all"],
+ "people_affected_pct": float(rows["metrics"][0]["people_affected"]),
+ "deciles": [{"decile": i, "mean_household_change_gbp": cash[str(i)], "income_change_pct": percent[i]} for i in range(1, 11)],
+ }
+ summary["measures"][mid] = {
+ "source_commit": dashboard["git_sha"], "generated_at": dashboard["generated_at"],
+ "description": dashboard["description"], "execution": execution,
+ "disclosure_floor": floor,
+ "sources": {name: SOURCE + entry["artifact"] + f"/{name}.csv" for name in TABLES},
+ "receipt_url": SOURCE + entry["artifact"] + "/receipt.json", "years": years,
+ }
+ (SNAPSHOT / "summary.json").write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n")
+ print("Verified 8 aggregate CSV hashes, certified provenance and provisional disclosure gates; rebuilt population-preview/summary.json")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+ main()
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index 1e8e5d52f..3f168b689 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rat
In the examples below, a basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more.
-This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://uk-autumn-budget-2026.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) shows how it combines with the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
+This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard preview](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
## What changes in April 2027?
@@ -133,6 +133,28 @@ Both pay £200 more before relief, while their finance-cost reduction rises by
The property **rate** increase excludes Scottish taxpayers, whose rental income follows Scottish rules. Finance-cost relief is a separate calculation. The [Finance Act 2026 amendment](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/schedule/1/paragraph/40/enacted) ties it to the UK property basic rate without a Scottish exception. Applying that rule, a Scottish landlord able to use the full reduction on £4,000 of eligible finance costs receives £80 more relief, reducing their income tax by £80 if nothing else changes. A mortgage-free Scottish landlord has no change from this measure. The savings increase still applies across the UK.
+## Preliminary national estimates
+
+The dashboard's [provisional revenue output](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv), generated on 28 October at 14:34 UTC, estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The results are awaiting reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+
+The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/winners_losers.csv) show an annual household income reduction of **£22.67 across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. The largest average cash loss is in the highest income decile, at £107.13. Deciles are ranked by baseline equivalised household net income, which accounts for household size.
+
+| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
+| --- | ---: |
+| 1 (lowest income) | −£12.90 |
+| 2 | −£5.69 |
+| 3 | −£6.66 |
+| 4 | −£7.31 |
+| 5 | −£6.00 |
+| 6 | −£9.13 |
+| 7 | −£10.94 |
+| 8 | −£21.51 |
+| 9 | −£37.04 |
+| 10 (highest income) | −£107.13 |
+| All households | −£22.67 |
+
+The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/metrics.csv) is **10.67% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a taxpayer count or a headcount. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing, so an average loss within a decile should not be read as a loss for every household in it.
+
## The Treasury forecasts revenue of £1.13 billion in 2028–29
The Treasury costs the savings and property changes separately. Their sum reaches £1,130 million in 2028–29 and £1,045 million in 2031–32.
@@ -141,9 +163,10 @@ The Treasury costs the savings and property changes separately. Their sum reache
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Property income rates | 0 | 35 | 575 | 435 | 445 | 455 |
| Savings income rates | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 |
-| Combined | 15 | 160 | 1,130 | 955 | 1,000 | 1,045 |
+| Treasury combined | 15 | 160 | 1,130 | 955 | 1,000 | 1,045 |
+| PolicyEngine, provisional static | 0 | 664 | 696 | 728 | 762 | 793 |
-These government receipts forecasts differ from annual household liabilities. The [Treasury policy costings, #page 74-75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=74) allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. A static calculation holds those choices fixed.
+These government receipts forecasts differ from annual household liabilities. The [Treasury policy costings, #page 74-75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=74) allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. The PolicyEngine run holds those choices fixed. Tax-year liabilities and fiscal-year receipts forecasts also differ in timing. Reconciliation has not yet established how much of the gap between these estimates comes from behaviour, collection timing or model coverage.
## Methodology
@@ -151,4 +174,8 @@ The examples isolate the newly announced 2027–28 changes, including finance-co
The examples use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the pre-Budget policy baseline and parameter changes in the dashboard's [`unearned_income_rates_up` measure](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55/src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py). The calculations check tax changes against independent arithmetic.
-This draft reports hypothetical examples and Treasury forecasts. PolicyEngine national revenue, affected-person and decile estimates are pending the population run. That run is pinned to the dashboard's certified national dataset `a6299504`; population forecast inputs and model-coverage limits must accompany its results.
+The national figures reuse the dashboard's [recorded execution receipt](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/receipt.json), generated at source commit `0d9dccb2`. They use certified national dataset `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504` and the October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
+
+The receipt records a passed disclosure floor of at least three survey households per published cell; no thin decile cells are recorded. The affected-population calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1, and includes only households with a valid decile. Its percentage does not establish how many people gain or lose.
+
+**Draft status:** the population results are provisional and marked `awaiting_source` for reconciliation in the preview manifest. Final reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares remain outstanding.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index d82f34cad..71b9cdae7 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) announces an increase in the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027. The allowance covers eligible trading and miscellaneous income. For an employee paying 20% income tax on their side income, the extra £2,000 deduction can reduce annual income tax by £400. The reduction depends on receipts, expenses and how much tax the individual would otherwise pay.
-This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://uk-autumn-budget-2026.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
## How the allowance works
@@ -123,20 +123,42 @@ Universal Credit uses separate self-employment income rules. The allowance itsel
The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
+## Preliminary national estimates
+
+The dashboard's [provisional cost output](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv), generated on 28 October at 14:34 UTC, estimates a **£112 million cost in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects. The receipt warns that missing gross receipts in the population data can overstate the cost, and the results are awaiting reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+
+The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/winners_losers.csv) show a **£3.83 annual household income gain across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. The highest average gain is in decile 8, at £8.57. These population averages include people with no eligible trading income; the worked examples above describe particular eligible individuals. Deciles are ranked by baseline equivalised household net income, which accounts for household size.
+
+| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
+| --- | ---: |
+| 1 (lowest income) | +£0.83 |
+| 2 | +£3.39 |
+| 3 | +£1.04 |
+| 4 | +£0.45 |
+| 5 | +£2.11 |
+| 6 | +£3.43 |
+| 7 | +£5.73 |
+| 8 | +£8.57 |
+| 9 | +£6.18 |
+| 10 (highest income) | +£7.03 |
+| All households | +£3.83 |
+
+The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
+
## Treasury costing
-Table 6.1, row 15, gives the following official forecast. These are reductions in Exchequer receipts, expressed below as positive costs; they are not PolicyEngine microsimulation estimates.
+The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column reports the provisional static estimates. Both columns express costs to the Exchequer as positive values.
-| Fiscal year | Treasury cost (£ million) |
-| --- | --- |
-| 2026–27 | 0 |
-| 2027–28 | 0 |
-| 2028–29 | 225 |
-| 2029–30 | 165 |
-| 2030–31 | 175 |
-| 2031–32 | 180 |
+| Year | Treasury cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine provisional static cost (£ million) |
+| --- | ---: | ---: |
+| 2026–27 | 0 | 0 |
+| 2027–28 | 0 | 112 |
+| 2028–29 | 225 | 120 |
+| 2029–30 | 165 | 113 |
+| 2030–31 | 175 | 123 |
+| 2031–32 | 180 | 131 |
-The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. A household's tax-year liability and the government's forecast of receipts by fiscal year are different quantities.
+The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and the government's fiscal-year receipts forecasts are different quantities. The comparison also needs to allow for model coverage, including missing gross receipts. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates.
## Methodology and coverage
@@ -146,4 +168,8 @@ The household calculations use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.1
In the population data, gross receipts are unavailable. The pinned model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) uses an approximation that can overstate or understate the reform's effect for individual records. It also does not apply this allowance to its separate miscellaneous-income input, although eligible miscellaneous income is within the announced policy. These coverage limits matter when interpreting national results.
-This draft reports hypothetical examples and Treasury forecasts. PolicyEngine national cost, affected-person and decile estimates are pending the population run, pinned to the dashboard's certified national dataset `a6299504`.
+The national figures reuse the dashboard's [recorded execution receipt](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), generated at source commit `0d9dccb2`. They use certified national dataset `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504` and the October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
+
+The receipt records a passed disclosure floor of at least three survey households per published cell; no thin decile cells are recorded. The affected-population calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1, and includes only households with a valid decile. Its percentage does not establish how many people gain or lose.
+
+**Draft status:** the population results are provisional and marked `awaiting_source` for reconciliation in the preview manifest. Final reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares remain outstanding.
From f581840f590e3a9466a2a03e39a769a0db99f880 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:07:52 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 03/36] Clarify income bands and prepare draft review handoff
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md | 2 ++
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 34 +++++++++++++++++++
...budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 18 +++++++++-
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 4 +--
4 files changed, 55 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
index f063e833c..9af0d0e23 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
@@ -46,6 +46,8 @@ Treasury forecasts are labelled separately. Compare fiscal-year Treasury receipt
The two articles use the site's native chart blocks and cover assets. No runtime application or country-model code is changed.
+See `REVIEW_NOTES.md` for the independent draft-readiness check, the comparison with Pavel's posts and the remaining publication work.
+
## Validation on 28 October 2026
`make format`, `make lint`, `make typecheck` and `make test` passed. The tests ran on Node 26.12.1: 6,042 app tests and 508 website tests passed, with 10 app tests skipped by the existing suite. After inserting the final chart data, the chart-parser and post-metadata checks passed again (18 tests). All 23 household comparisons and 20 curve points passed independent arithmetic checks.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..2f21d9c60
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+# Draft review handoff
+
+Both standalone posts are ready for agent review in draft PR #1460. Publication remains a separate decision.
+
+## Internal readiness check
+
+An independent policy/source reviewer and code/reproducibility reviewer examined commit `7f90092fa6e6f28f68b419c4edf1bef166d851b9` on 28 October 2026. The review was complete for draft readiness, with no confirmed critical or should-address findings and one optional clarity suggestion.
+
+- The policy reviewer checked the official Budget, legislation and HMRC guidance, and visually inspected physical pages 23, 74 and 75 of the Treasury costings. The rates, start dates, allowance rules, Scottish finance-cost relief interpretation and Treasury series were corroborated.
+- The code reviewer independently reproduced all 23 hypothetical household comparisons and 20 curve points on the pinned bundle. Numeric outputs, CSVs and chart specifications matched the saved results.
+- All eight public aggregate CSV hashes matched their receipts. National fiscal signs, decile averages and affected-population percentage units matched the articles. The saved summary reproduced exactly.
+- The 18 chart-parser and post-metadata tests passed on the frozen snapshot using Node 26.12.1. The earlier full suite passed 6,550 tests, with 10 existing skips. CI was not monitored.
+
+The optional suggestion was to name the Treasury's trading-allowance expense-switching response. The follow-up adds that explanation with its physical-page-23 citation. It also adds an explicit savings/property band calculation using the already reproduced `property_then_savings_order` case (£8,582 to £8,732 income tax) and uses the canonical dashboard address shared in the team channel. These are prose and citation changes; model calculations are unchanged. The band table is checked against the saved component and total taxes.
+
+## What to review
+
+- Savings/property: income ordering, the transition between basic and higher bands, and the conditional £80 finance-relief gain for Scottish landlords with £4,000 of fully usable finance costs.
+- Trading: the receipts-versus-expenses choice, the separate miscellaneous-income coverage limitation and the population approximation when gross receipts are missing.
+- Population: the static-model/Treasury comparison and the interpretation of average changes. The producer's `people_affected` field is a percentage of people in households with an absolute income change above 0.01%; it is not a headcount or a separate winner/loser share.
+
+The source preview remains revision 5, with both entries `provisional` and reconciliation `awaiting_source`. The articles retain those labels. Max's later instruction to call approved outputs “first estimates” is conditional on the checks passing; it is not an approval of this cached snapshot.
+
+## Before publication
+
+- Complete reconciliation and confirm or replace the provisional population snapshot.
+- Obtain absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares when available; preserve disclosure controls.
+- Resolve or retain explicit limits for missing trading receipts/expenses and miscellaneous income.
+- Complete desktop/mobile visual preview and final editorial review. Browser preview was not verified during this work.
+- Link the standalone articles from the dashboard.
+
+## Related team work
+
+Pavel's [Pension Tax Allowance draft, #1457](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1457), and [fuel-duty draft, #1459](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1459), informed the calculation-first presentation, explicit assumptions and separation of Treasury costings from model results. They were read as comparative examples, not formally approved by this review. Their shared line-chart work is not required by these posts' existing native bar charts.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index 3f168b689..a126b8a96 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rat
In the examples below, a basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more.
-This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard preview](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
+This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
## What changes in April 2027?
@@ -133,6 +133,22 @@ Both pay £200 more before relief, while their finance-cost reduction rises by
The property **rate** increase excludes Scottish taxpayers, whose rental income follows Scottish rules. Finance-cost relief is a separate calculation. The [Finance Act 2026 amendment](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/schedule/1/paragraph/40/enacted) ties it to the UK property basic rate without a Scottish exception. Applying that rule, a Scottish landlord able to use the full reduction on £4,000 of eligible finance costs receives £80 more relief, reducing their income tax by £80 if nothing else changes. A mortgage-free Scottish landlord has no change from this measure. The savings increase still applies across the UK.
+## When property income pushes savings into a higher band
+
+Consider an adult in England with £45,000 of salary, £6,000 of property profit after allowable expenses, £2,000 of interest and no mortgage interest. The £12,570 Personal Allowance leaves £32,430 of taxable salary. That uses £32,430 of the £37,700 basic-rate band, leaving £5,270.
+
+Property income fills that remaining £5,270, with £730 entering the higher band. The individual qualifies for a £500 Personal Savings Allowance; the remaining £1,500 of interest falls in the higher savings band.
+
+| Income tax component, 2027–28 | Before | After |
+| --- | ---: | ---: |
+| Salary: £32,430 at 20% | £6,486.00 | £6,486.00 |
+| Property: £5,270 at 22% / 24% | £1,159.40 | £1,264.80 |
+| Property: £730 at 42% / 44% | £306.60 | £321.20 |
+| Savings: £1,500 at 42% / 44% | £630.00 | £660.00 |
+| Total income tax | £8,582.00 | £8,732.00 |
+
+The extra tax is £120 on property plus £30 on savings, or **£150 a year**. The calculation shows why the order of income sources matters even when each rate rises by the same two percentage points.
+
## Preliminary national estimates
The dashboard's [provisional revenue output](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv), generated on 28 October at 14:34 UTC, estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The results are awaiting reconciliation with Treasury costings.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index 71b9cdae7..d96ab10b1 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) announces an increase in the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027. The allowance covers eligible trading and miscellaneous income. For an employee paying 20% income tax on their side income, the extra £2,000 deduction can reduce annual income tax by £400. The reduction depends on receipts, expenses and how much tax the individual would otherwise pay.
-This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
## How the allowance works
@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column report
| 2030–31 | 175 | 123 |
| 2031–32 | 180 | 131 |
-The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and the government's fiscal-year receipts forecasts are different quantities. The comparison also needs to allow for model coverage, including missing gross receipts. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates.
+The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and the government's fiscal-year receipts forecasts are different quantities. The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) also allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. The static model holds circumstances fixed and also faces the gross-receipts coverage limit. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates.
## Methodology and coverage
From cdeb356c2c567fdea1bf73974480c9fba5ee5ba3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: PavelMakarchuk
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:39:46 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 04/36] Add a line chart type for blog posts, and valueLabels
for bar charts
BlogLineChart.tsx draws series against a numeric x axis, with step
series, markers labelled in a strip above the plot, an x axis format, a
y axis fitted to the data on request, and a y axis width that follows
the tick labels. blogChartUtils gains a thousands separator, a niceTicks
option that leaves zero out, and validFormat. Bar charts take
"valueLabels": false when several series make the labels overlap.
chart-standards.md documents both. Used by the Budget 2026 posts
(#1457, #1459).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5
---
docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md | 14 +-
.../__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx | 22 ++
.../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 140 +++++++++
website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx | 28 +-
website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 289 ++++++++++++++++++
website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts | 39 ++-
6 files changed, 514 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx
create mode 100644 website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
diff --git a/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md b/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md
index 3e65f9ef2..e4dcc100e 100644
--- a/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md
+++ b/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md
@@ -242,9 +242,9 @@ import {
Posts draw charts as ` ```chart ` fenced blocks holding a JSON spec.
`website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx` parses each block and wraps it in a figure with
-title, subtitle, watermark and source line. `bar` (in `BlogChart.tsx`) and `waterfall`
-(`BlogWaterfallChart.tsx`) draw with Recharts, Inter, the `--chart-*` tokens and ui-kit's
-shared axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles. `stateMap` (`BlogStateMap.tsx`) draws an 11 by
+title, subtitle, watermark and source line. `bar` (in `BlogChart.tsx`), `line`
+(`BlogLineChart.tsx`) and `waterfall` (`BlogWaterfallChart.tsx`) draw with Recharts, Inter,
+the `--chart-*` tokens and ui-kit's shared axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles. `stateMap` (`BlogStateMap.tsx`) draws an 11 by
8 tile grid shaded from `--background` to `--primary`. Each file's header comment documents
its spec.
@@ -254,6 +254,14 @@ its spec.
- Do not add matplotlib PNGs or Plotly JSON to new posts. When a post needs a chart type the
website lacks (a line or scatter chart, say), add the type to `website/src/components/blog/`
with tests before the post uses it.
+- `line` draws series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax or benefit schedule by income.
+ Give it the exact breakpoints plus regular points (every £100, say) so the tooltip has detail
+ without drawing anything inexact. `"step": true` holds a series' value to the next point, for
+ marginal rates; `markers` label named x values in a strip above the plot; `xFormat` formats
+ the x axis; `"yIncludesZero": false` fits the y axis to levels far from zero.
+- `format` and `xFormat` take `"separator": true` to group thousands (£13,036).
+- A `bar` chart with several series can set `"valueLabels": false` when the labels above the
+ bars would overlap; the tooltip still gives each value.
- `website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart-posts.test.ts` fails CI when a post's chart
block does not parse. Keep the chart's numbers identical to the tables and text beside it.
- The website builds Tailwind with the `tw:` prefix, so ui-kit components that rely on
diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx
index dee6f2a17..4ae96881d 100644
--- a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx
+++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx
@@ -184,6 +184,28 @@ describe("BlogChart", () => {
expect(legend).toEqual(["Census", "PolicyEngine prediction"]);
});
+ test("valueLabels false draws the bars without value labels", () => {
+ const { container } = render(
+ ,
+ );
+ const texts = [...container.querySelectorAll("svg text")].map(
+ (el) => el.textContent,
+ );
+ for (const t of ["+0.07", "+0.22", "−0.06", "+0.86"]) {
+ expect(texts).not.toContain(t);
+ }
+ expect(texts).toContain("+1.00 pp");
+ expect(container.querySelectorAll(".recharts-bar-rectangle")).toHaveLength(
+ 4,
+ );
+ });
+
+ test("rejects a non-boolean valueLabels", () => {
+ expect(
+ parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify({ ...SPEC, valueLabels: "no" })),
+ ).toBeNull();
+ });
+
test("names the figure by its title", () => {
render();
expect(
diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..8cd33eef5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+import { cloneElement, type ReactElement } from "react";
+import { render, screen } from "@testing-library/react";
+import { describe, expect, test, vi } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+ BlogChart,
+ formatChartValue,
+ niceTicks,
+ parseBlogChartSpec,
+} from "@/components/blog/BlogChart";
+
+// jsdom has no layout, so give the responsive container a fixed size.
+vi.mock("recharts", async (importOriginal) => {
+ const mod = await importOriginal();
+ return {
+ ...mod,
+ ResponsiveContainer: ({
+ children,
+ height,
+ }: {
+ children: ReactElement<{ width?: number; height?: number }>;
+ height?: number | string;
+ }) =>
+ cloneElement(children, {
+ width: 600,
+ height: typeof height === "number" ? height : 240,
+ }),
+ };
+});
+
+const SPEC = {
+ type: "line",
+ title: "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28",
+ xKey: "income",
+ xLabel: "Total income",
+ series: [
+ { key: "baseline", name: "Without the allowance", color: "quinary" },
+ { key: "reform", name: "With the allowance", color: "primary" },
+ ],
+ data: [
+ { income: 12000, baseline: 0, reform: 0 },
+ { income: 12570, baseline: 0, reform: 0 },
+ { income: 13036.4, baseline: 93.28, reform: 0 },
+ { income: 13800, baseline: 246, reform: 246 },
+ ],
+ markers: [{ x: 12570, label: "Personal Allowance" }],
+ format: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true },
+ xFormat: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true },
+ source: "PolicyEngine UK",
+};
+
+const parse = (spec: unknown) => parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify(spec));
+
+describe("line chart spec", () => {
+ test("a valid spec parses as a line chart", () => {
+ expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line");
+ });
+
+ test("yIncludesZero false parses", () => {
+ expect(parse({ ...SPEC, yIncludesZero: false })?.type).toBe("line");
+ });
+
+ test("a step series parses", () => {
+ const spec = {
+ ...SPEC,
+ series: [{ key: "reform", name: "Rate", step: true }],
+ };
+ expect(parse(spec)?.type).toBe("line");
+ });
+
+ test.each([
+ ["x values out of order", { data: [...SPEC.data].reverse() }],
+ [
+ "a row missing a series value",
+ { data: [...SPEC.data.slice(0, 3), { income: 13800, baseline: 246 }] },
+ ],
+ [
+ "a string x value",
+ { data: [{ ...SPEC.data[0], income: "low" }, SPEC.data[1]] },
+ ],
+ ["one data row", { data: [SPEC.data[0]] }],
+ ["a marker without a label", { markers: [{ x: 12570 }] }],
+ [
+ "a non-boolean step",
+ { series: [{ key: "reform", name: "R", step: "yes" }] },
+ ],
+ ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }],
+ ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }],
+ ["a non-boolean yIncludesZero", { yIncludesZero: "no" }],
+ ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => {
+ expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull();
+ });
+});
+
+describe("line chart rendering", () => {
+ test("renders the title, series names, marker label and source", () => {
+ render();
+ expect(
+ screen.getByText("Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28"),
+ ).toBeInTheDocument();
+ expect(screen.getByText("Without the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument();
+ expect(screen.getByText("With the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument();
+ expect(screen.getByText("Personal Allowance")).toBeInTheDocument();
+ expect(screen.getByText("PolicyEngine UK")).toBeInTheDocument();
+ });
+
+ test("an invalid spec renders nothing", () => {
+ const { container } = render(
+ ,
+ );
+ expect(container).toBeEmptyDOMElement();
+ });
+});
+
+describe("chart helpers", () => {
+ test("the separator groups thousands", () => {
+ expect(
+ formatChartValue(13036.4, { prefix: "£", decimals: 2, separator: true }),
+ ).toBe("£13,036.40");
+ expect(formatChartValue(-1234567, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe(
+ "−1,234,567",
+ );
+ expect(formatChartValue(999, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe("999");
+ });
+
+ test("without the separator, values stay ungrouped", () => {
+ expect(formatChartValue(13036, { decimals: 0 })).toBe("13036");
+ });
+
+ test("niceTicks can leave zero out of the range", () => {
+ const axis = niceTicks([12000, 13800], 6, false);
+ expect(axis.domain[0]).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+ expect(axis.ticks[0]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(12000);
+ expect(axis.ticks.at(-1)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(13800);
+ });
+
+ test("niceTicks includes zero by default", () => {
+ expect(niceTicks([12000, 13800]).domain[0]).toBe(0);
+ });
+});
diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx
index d2bd74c1e..272bea86a 100644
--- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx
+++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx
@@ -9,8 +9,8 @@
* Posts carry data, not styling. Styles are inline token variables because
* the website's Tailwind build uses a prefix that ui-kit's utility classes lack.
*
- * Types: "bar" (below), "waterfall" (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap"
- * (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and
+ * Types: "bar" (below), "line" (BlogLineChart.tsx), "waterfall"
+ * (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and
* "source"; an invalid spec renders nothing.
*
* Spec (type "bar"):
@@ -22,8 +22,13 @@
* "data": [{ "group": "All people", "census": 0.07 }, ...],
* "yLabel": "...",
* "format": { "decimals": 2, "suffix": " pp", "signed": true },
+ * "valueLabels": false,
* "source": "..."
* }
+ *
+ * "valueLabels" (default true) prints each bar's value above it. Set it to
+ * false when several series make the labels overlap; the tooltip still
+ * gives each value.
*/
import { type ReactNode, useId } from "react";
@@ -58,6 +63,7 @@ import {
niceTicks,
validSharedFields,
} from "./blogChartUtils";
+import { type BlogLineSpec, LineBody, parseLineSpec } from "./BlogLineChart";
import {
type BlogStateMapSpec,
StateMapBody,
@@ -87,17 +93,22 @@ export interface BlogBarChartSpec {
data: BlogChartRow[];
yLabel?: string;
format?: BlogChartFormat;
+ valueLabels?: boolean;
source?: string;
height?: number;
}
export type BlogChartSpec =
| BlogBarChartSpec
+ | BlogLineSpec
| BlogWaterfallSpec
| BlogStateMapSpec;
function parseBarSpec(s: Record): BlogBarChartSpec | null {
if (s.type !== "bar" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null;
+ if (s.valueLabels !== undefined && typeof s.valueLabels !== "boolean") {
+ return null;
+ }
if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null;
if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length === 0) return null;
if (
@@ -134,6 +145,8 @@ export function parseBlogChartSpec(raw: string): BlogChartSpec | null {
switch (spec.type) {
case "bar":
return parseBarSpec(spec);
+ case "line":
+ return parseLineSpec(spec);
case "waterfall":
return parseWaterfallSpec(spec);
case "stateMap":
@@ -240,10 +253,12 @@ function BarBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogBarChartSpec }) {
radius={[2, 2, 0, 0]}
isAnimationActive={false}
>
- }
- />
+ {spec.valueLabels !== false && (
+ }
+ />
+ )}
))}
@@ -325,6 +340,7 @@ export function BlogChart({ data }: { data: string | string[] }) {
return (
{spec.type === "bar" && }
+ {spec.type === "line" && }
{spec.type === "waterfall" && }
{spec.type === "stateMap" && }
diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..94e6ed510
--- /dev/null
+++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,289 @@
+"use client";
+
+/**
+ * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line".
+ *
+ * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule
+ * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero
+ * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value
+ * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers
+ * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally in a
+ * strip above the plot, one row per marker, so labels cross neither the
+ * data nor each other.
+ *
+ * Spec:
+ * {
+ * "type": "line",
+ * "title": "...", "subtitle": "...",
+ * "xKey": "income",
+ * "xLabel": "Total income",
+ * "series": [
+ * { "key": "baseline", "name": "Without the reform", "color": "quinary" },
+ * { "key": "reform", "name": "With the reform", "color": "primary", "step": false }
+ * ],
+ * "data": [{ "income": 12000, "baseline": 0, "reform": 0 }, ...],
+ * "markers": [{ "x": 12570, "label": "Personal Allowance" }],
+ * "yLabel": "...",
+ * "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true },
+ * "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true },
+ * "source": "..."
+ * }
+ *
+ * Data rows must be sorted by x, and every row needs a number for every
+ * series, or the spec is rejected.
+ */
+
+import {
+ AXIS_STYLE,
+ GRID_STYLE,
+ LEGEND_STYLE,
+ TOOLTIP_STYLE,
+} from "@policyengine/ui-kit/charts";
+import {
+ CartesianGrid,
+ Legend,
+ Line,
+ LineChart,
+ ReferenceLine,
+ ResponsiveContainer,
+ Tooltip,
+ XAxis,
+ YAxis,
+} from "recharts";
+
+import {
+ type BlogChartFormat,
+ type BlogChartRow,
+ type ChartColorName,
+ chartColor,
+ formatChartValue,
+ isFiniteNumber,
+ isRecord,
+ niceTicks,
+ validFormat,
+} from "./blogChartUtils";
+
+export interface BlogLineSeries {
+ key: string;
+ name: string;
+ color?: ChartColorName;
+ step?: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface BlogLineMarker {
+ x: number;
+ label: string;
+}
+
+export interface BlogLineSpec {
+ type: "line";
+ title?: string;
+ subtitle?: string;
+ xKey: string;
+ xLabel?: string;
+ series: BlogLineSeries[];
+ data: BlogChartRow[];
+ markers?: BlogLineMarker[];
+ yLabel?: string;
+ /** False fits the y axis to the data, for levels far from zero. */
+ yIncludesZero?: boolean;
+ format?: BlogChartFormat;
+ xFormat?: BlogChartFormat;
+ source?: string;
+ height?: number;
+}
+
+export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null {
+ if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null;
+ if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null;
+ if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null;
+ if (s.yIncludesZero !== undefined && typeof s.yIncludesZero !== "boolean") {
+ return null;
+ }
+ if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null;
+ if (
+ !s.series.every(
+ (x) =>
+ isRecord(x) &&
+ typeof x.key === "string" &&
+ typeof x.name === "string" &&
+ (x.step === undefined || typeof x.step === "boolean"),
+ )
+ ) {
+ return null;
+ }
+ if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length < 2) return null;
+ const keys = (s.series as BlogLineSeries[]).map((x) => x.key);
+ const xKey = s.xKey;
+ let previous = -Infinity;
+ for (const row of s.data) {
+ if (!isRecord(row) || !isFiniteNumber(row[xKey])) return null;
+ if (row[xKey] < previous) return null;
+ previous = row[xKey];
+ if (!keys.every((k) => isFiniteNumber(row[k]))) return null;
+ }
+ if (
+ s.markers !== undefined &&
+ !(
+ Array.isArray(s.markers) &&
+ s.markers.every(
+ (m) =>
+ isRecord(m) && isFiniteNumber(m.x) && typeof m.label === "string",
+ )
+ )
+ ) {
+ return null;
+ }
+ return s as unknown as BlogLineSpec;
+}
+
+const MARKER_ROW_HEIGHT = 16;
+
+interface MarkerLabelProps {
+ viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number };
+ value: string;
+ row: number;
+ rows: number;
+ anchor: "start" | "end";
+}
+
+/** A marker's label in the strip above the plot, in its own row, beside its
+ * line: right of it in the left half of the plot, left of it in the right
+ * half. */
+function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, rows, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) {
+ const x = Number(viewBox?.x);
+ const y = Number(viewBox?.y);
+ if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null;
+ return (
+
+ {value}
+
+ );
+}
+
+export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) {
+ const format = spec.format ?? {};
+ const xFormat = spec.xFormat ?? {};
+ const xs = spec.data.map((row) => row[spec.xKey] as number);
+ const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) =>
+ spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number),
+ );
+ const yAxis = niceTicks(values, 4, spec.yIncludesZero ?? true);
+ const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false);
+ const xMin = Math.min(...xs);
+ const xMax = Math.max(...xs);
+ const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax);
+ const markerRows = spec.markers?.length ?? 0;
+ const yTick = (v: number) =>
+ formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals });
+ // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title.
+ const yAxisWidth =
+ Math.max(...yAxis.ticks.map((t) => yTick(t).length)) * 7 +
+ (spec.yLabel ? 28 : 12);
+ const xTick = (v: number) =>
+ formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals });
+
+ return (
+
+
+
+
+
+ {(spec.markers ?? []).map((m, i) => (
+ (
+
+ )}
+ />
+ ))}
+ formatChartValue(Number(x), xFormat)}
+ formatter={(value, name) => [
+ formatChartValue(Number(value), format),
+ String(name),
+ ]}
+ />
+
+ {spec.series.map((s, i) => (
+
+ ))}
+
+
+ );
+}
diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts
index 643b3c0bf..aed48956f 100644
--- a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts
+++ b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts
@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ export interface BlogChartFormat {
prefix?: string;
suffix?: string;
signed?: boolean;
+ /** Group thousands with commas, as in £13,036. */
+ separator?: boolean;
}
export type BlogChartRow = Record;
@@ -30,24 +32,36 @@ export function formatChartValue(
value: number,
format: BlogChartFormat = {},
): string {
- const { decimals = 1, prefix = "", suffix = "", signed = false } = format;
+ const {
+ decimals = 1,
+ prefix = "",
+ suffix = "",
+ signed = false,
+ separator = false,
+ } = format;
const digits = Math.min(MAX_DECIMALS, Math.max(0, Math.round(decimals)));
- const magnitude = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits);
- const isZero = Number(magnitude) === 0;
+ const fixed = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits);
+ const magnitude = separator
+ ? fixed.replace(/^\d+/, (whole) => whole.replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+$)/g, ","))
+ : fixed;
+ const isZero = Number(fixed) === 0;
const sign = value < 0 && !isZero ? "−" : signed && !isZero ? "+" : "";
return `${sign}${prefix}${magnitude}${suffix}`;
}
/**
* Round the value range out to a step of 1, 2, 2.5 or 5 times a power of ten,
- * including zero, so tick labels land on round numbers.
+ * including zero unless `includeZero` is false, so tick labels land on round
+ * numbers.
*/
export function niceTicks(
values: number[],
target = 4,
+ includeZero = true,
): { domain: [number, number]; ticks: number[]; decimals: number } {
- const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), 0);
- const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), 0);
+ const seed = includeZero || values.length === 0 ? 0 : values[0];
+ const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), seed);
+ const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), seed);
// A span under 1e-9 gets a unit axis: a smaller step underflows, or needs
// more decimals than toFixed allows.
const span = hi - lo >= 1e-9 ? hi - lo : 1;
@@ -90,10 +104,16 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean {
if (s.height !== undefined && !(isFiniteNumber(s.height) && s.height > 0)) {
return false;
}
- const { format } = s;
+ return validFormat(s.format);
+}
+
+/** An optional BlogChartFormat with every field of the right type. */
+export function validFormat(format: unknown): boolean {
+ const optionalString = (v: unknown) =>
+ v === undefined || typeof v === "string";
if (format === undefined) return true;
if (!isRecord(format)) return false;
- const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed } = format;
+ const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed, separator } = format;
return (
(decimals === undefined ||
(Number.isInteger(decimals) &&
@@ -101,7 +121,8 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean {
(decimals as number) <= MAX_DECIMALS)) &&
optionalString(prefix) &&
optionalString(suffix) &&
- (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean")
+ (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") &&
+ (separator === undefined || typeof separator === "boolean")
);
}
From 5a70185ae5ea8e947b155ebcd048e0e2e1cf7148 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:41:49 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 05/36] Keep savings/property post and shared analysis in base
draft
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md | 9 +
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 26 +
.../dashboard_salary_comparison.json | 54 +
.../generate_trading_extensions.py | 225 ++++
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json | 9 +
.../trading_extensions.json | 966 ++++++++++++++++++
...k-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg | 45 -
...budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 60 +-
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 175 ----
app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 9 -
10 files changed, 1321 insertions(+), 257 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/dashboard_salary_comparison.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
delete mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
index 9af0d0e23..e5a2edd2b 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
@@ -53,3 +53,12 @@ See `REVIEW_NOTES.md` for the independent draft-readiness check, the comparison
`make format`, `make lint`, `make typecheck` and `make test` passed. The tests ran on Node 26.12.1: 6,042 app tests and 508 website tests passed, with 10 app tests skipped by the existing suite. After inserting the final chart data, the chart-parser and post-metadata checks passed again (18 tests). All 23 household comparisons and 20 curve points passed independent arithmetic checks.
After adding the provisional national sections, snapshot verification and the article/chart checks passed again. Browser access to the local preview was declined, so visual preview remains outstanding. The SVG cover XML and native chart specs were validated, but this does not confirm page layout at desktop or mobile widths.
+
+
+## Additional trading and calculator examples
+
+```sh
+analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
+```
+
+This checks five additional synthetic pairs requested in Max's review, including UC, Class4 and missing-receipts fallbacks. `trading_extensions.json` records complete inputs, raw outputs and arithmetic checks. `dashboard_salary_comparison.json` records the calculator's March-index salary comparison. Household examples use no population data. Shared analysis is kept in the savings/property base PR so the trading article can be reviewed in a separate stacked PR.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
index 2f21d9c60..458323ea2 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -32,3 +32,29 @@ The source preview remains revision 5, with both entries `provisional` and recon
## Related team work
Pavel's [Pension Tax Allowance draft, #1457](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1457), and [fuel-duty draft, #1459](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1459), informed the calculation-first presentation, explicit assumptions and separation of Treasury costings from model results. They were read as comparative examples, not formally approved by this review. Their shared line-chart work is not required by these posts' existing native bar charts.
+
+
+## Follow-up to Max's reviews
+
+Max's trading review is [comment6472758764](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472758764); savings/property is [comment6472939282](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472939282), with calculator alignment in [comment6473177137](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6473177137).
+
+Addressed in the next draft revision:
+
+- Whole-pound prose/summary tables; pence retained in worked calculations and exact source records.
+- National headlines; England explicitly named for the mortgaged landlord; government reach figures explained with their different denominators.
+- Clearer source citations and reader-facing methods; build-status fields, identifiers and review history retained here and in provenance rather than the article text.
+- The UC parent and full-time sole trader are reproduced by `generate_trading_extensions.py`: five pairs passed. The £4,000-receipts parent gains £180 after £220 of UC withdrawal; the sole trader gains £520 including £120 Class4.
+- For the specified £18,000-wage parent at £1,500 receipts, the gain is £45 (tax−£100, UC−£55). Max's £79 case needs exact inputs to resolve; it was not copied into the article.
+- Missing-receipts examples demonstrate £300 instead of £100 of tax relief for the small trader, and £0 instead of £520 of tax/NI savings for the sole trader.
+- The calculator salary comparison is recorded in `dashboard_salary_comparison.json`: the pinned March earnings index grows a £45,000 2026 salary to about £46,080 in2027; taxes round to£9,014/£9,164, change£150. The article's fixed2027salary remains£45,000, taxes£8,582/£8,732. No finance-cost calculator input exists.
+- Companion household-preset work is dashboard [PR292](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/292). At checked head65ea750a, the £45k/£6k/£2k recommendation had not yet replaced its older preset. No unsupported preset deep link is used.
+
+Still needed before publication:
+
+- Final population regeneration, with a component CSV/receipt binding the exact dataset bytes and updated forecast. Max's earlier ad32af7f run reproduces the saved first estimates but does not supply those component artifacts. His later correction on dashboard#290 calls for detailed October forecast tables and council tax in the final regeneration. The dataset pin has not changed automatically.
+- Weighted tax/benefit totals and household counts by decile. Person-weighted deciles with household-weighted cash means do not justify dividing one mean by the sum of means to claim a48% revenue share.
+- A bottom-decile income-source breakdown explaining its higher average loss; no cause has been inferred.
+- Max's internal260,000-person income-tax count and£71m miscellaneous-income sensitivity need scripts/aggregate receipts, output definitions and unique source-household support. The latter also needs a single shared trading/miscellaneous allowance and explicit eligibility/expense assumptions; it is not treated as a proven upper bound. These numbers are not added as reproduced results.
+- Replace preview artifact links when verified public artifacts exist; complete visual preview and editorial review.
+
+The articles remain drafts. Publication approval is separate from readiness for agent review. The trading article will have its own stacked PR, reusing this shared analysis foundation.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/dashboard_salary_comparison.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/dashboard_salary_comparison.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..3c65d13a8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/dashboard_salary_comparison.json
@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+{
+ "scope": "Synthetic salary-uprating comparison; no population data",
+ "versions": {
+ "policyengine": "6.11.1",
+ "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0",
+ "policyengine-core": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "year": 2027,
+ "salary_input_year": 2026,
+ "salary_growth_basis": "Pinned UK March OBR average earnings index, Jan1 to Jan1, matching calculator earnings_growth",
+ "growth_factor": 1.0240009985556604,
+ "inputs": {
+ "age": 35,
+ "employment_income": 46080.04493500472,
+ "property_income": 6000,
+ "savings_interest_income": 2000
+ },
+ "baseline": {
+ "income_tax": 9014.02,
+ "savings_income_tax": 630.0,
+ "savings_allowance": 500.0,
+ "savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
+ "basic_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "higher_rate_savings_income": 1500.0,
+ "add_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "property_income_tax": 1682.01,
+ "property_finance_cost_relief": 0.0,
+ "taxable_property_income": 6000.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 2680.81,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "household_benefits": 0.0
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "income_tax": 9164.02,
+ "savings_income_tax": 660.0,
+ "savings_allowance": 500.0,
+ "savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
+ "basic_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "higher_rate_savings_income": 1500.0,
+ "add_rate_savings_income": 0.0,
+ "property_income_tax": 1802.01,
+ "property_finance_cost_relief": 0.0,
+ "taxable_property_income": 6000.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 2680.81,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "household_benefits": 0.0
+ },
+ "income_tax_change": 150.0,
+ "reference": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/292#issuecomment-6473170340"
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..75ab4a13c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+"""Reproduce synthetic trading-allowance examples requested in Max's review.
+
+Run: .venv/bin/python generate_trading_extensions.py
+Only trading_extensions.json is written; no population data are used.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+import importlib.metadata as metadata
+import json
+import math
+from pathlib import Path
+import platform
+import warnings
+
+import policyengine as pe
+
+
+YEAR = 2027
+ALLOWANCE_PATH = "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance"
+REFORM = {ALLOWANCE_PATH: 3_000}
+VERSIONS = {"policyengine": "6.11.1", "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0", "policyengine-core": "3.33.3"}
+REVIEW_URL = "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472758764"
+PERSON_OUTPUTS = [
+ "employment_income", "self_employment_income", "self_employment_gross_receipts",
+ "income_tax", "national_insurance", "ni_class_4", "taxable_self_employment_income",
+ "trading_allowance_deduction", "uc_income_tax_on_earnings", "uc_income_tax_on_trade",
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings", "uc_national_insurance_on_trade",
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif", "uc_individual_earned_income",
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", "uc_mif_applies",
+]
+BENUNIT_OUTPUTS = [
+ "universal_credit", "universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap", "claims_universal_credit",
+ "uc_maximum_amount", "uc_standard_allowance", "uc_child_element",
+ "uc_housing_costs_element", "uc_work_allowance", "uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance",
+ "uc_earned_income", "uc_income_reduction", "uc_benefit_cap_reduction", "child_benefit",
+]
+HOUSEHOLD_OUTPUTS = [
+ "household_net_income", "hbai_household_net_income", "household_benefits",
+ "household_tax", "household_market_income", "household_gross_income", "rent", "council_tax",
+]
+
+
+def close(actual: float, expected: float, label: str) -> None:
+ if not math.isclose(actual, expected, abs_tol=0.02, rel_tol=0):
+ raise AssertionError(f"{label}: actual {actual}, independent expectation {expected}")
+
+
+def parameters() -> dict:
+ # Parameter inspection only; all tax/benefit computation uses pe.uk below.
+ from policyengine_uk.system import system
+
+ nodes = {
+ "trading_allowance": ALLOWANCE_PATH,
+ "uc_taper": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.reduction_rate",
+ "uc_work_allowance_monthly_with_housing": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.work_allowance.with_housing",
+ "uc_work_allowance_monthly_without_housing": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.work_allowance.without_housing",
+ }
+ values = {name: float(system.parameters.get_child(path)(f"{YEAR}-04-06")) for name, path in nodes.items()}
+ close(values["trading_allowance"], 1_000, "baseline trading allowance")
+ close(values["uc_taper"], 0.55, "UC taper")
+ return values
+
+
+def lone_parent(receipts: int, supply_receipts: bool = True) -> dict:
+ adult = {
+ "age": 35, "employment_status": "PT_EMPLOYED", "hours_worked": 20 * 52,
+ "employment_income": 18_000, "self_employment_income": receipts,
+ # Employment is the main job. This is the statutory gainful-employment
+ # determination, not an override of an income floor or UC award.
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": False,
+ }
+ if supply_receipts:
+ adult["self_employment_gross_receipts"] = receipts
+ return {
+ "people": [adult, {"age": 4, "employment_status": "CHILD"}],
+ "benunit": {"would_claim_uc": True, "would_claim_child_benefit": True},
+ "household": {
+ "region": "LONDON", "brma": "CENTRAL_LONDON",
+ "tenure_type": "RENT_PRIVATELY", "rent": 12_000, "council_tax": 0,
+ },
+ }
+
+
+def sole_trader(supply_receipts: bool = True) -> dict:
+ adult = {
+ "age": 35, "employment_status": "FT_SELF_EMPLOYED", "hours_worked": 35 * 52,
+ "employment_income": 0, "self_employment_income": 19_500,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": True,
+ }
+ if supply_receipts:
+ adult["self_employment_gross_receipts"] = 20_000
+ return {
+ "people": [adult], "benunit": {"would_claim_uc": False, "would_claim_child_benefit": False},
+ "household": {"region": "LONDON", "brma": "CENTRAL_LONDON", "tenure_type": "OWNED_OUTRIGHT", "rent": 0, "council_tax": 0},
+ }
+
+
+def calculate(inputs: dict, reform: dict) -> dict:
+ result = pe.uk.calculate_household(
+ **inputs, year=YEAR, reform=reform,
+ extra_variables=PERSON_OUTPUTS + BENUNIT_OUTPUTS + HOUSEHOLD_OUTPUTS,
+ )
+ # Preserve wrapper-provided floating-point values, including float32
+ # representation differences, rather than rounding the recorded raw output.
+ return {
+ "person": [{name: float(getattr(person, name)) for name in PERSON_OUTPUTS} for person in result.person],
+ "benunit": {name: float(getattr(result.benunit, name)) for name in BENUNIT_OUTPUTS},
+ "household": {name: float(getattr(result.household, name)) for name in HOUSEHOLD_OUTPUTS},
+ }
+
+
+def run_case(case: dict, law: dict) -> dict:
+ baseline = calculate(case["inputs"], {})
+ reformed = calculate(case["inputs"], REFORM)
+ delta = {
+ "income_tax": sum(person["income_tax"] for person in reformed["person"]) - sum(person["income_tax"] for person in baseline["person"]),
+ "national_insurance": sum(person["national_insurance"] for person in reformed["person"]) - sum(person["national_insurance"] for person in baseline["person"]),
+ "ni_class_4": sum(person["ni_class_4"] for person in reformed["person"]) - sum(person["ni_class_4"] for person in baseline["person"]),
+ "universal_credit": reformed["benunit"]["universal_credit"] - baseline["benunit"]["universal_credit"],
+ "household_benefits": reformed["household"]["household_benefits"] - baseline["household"]["household_benefits"],
+ "household_net_income": reformed["household"]["household_net_income"] - baseline["household"]["household_net_income"],
+ "hbai_household_net_income": reformed["household"]["hbai_household_net_income"] - baseline["household"]["hbai_household_net_income"],
+ }
+ for scenario, expected in case["independent_oracle"].items():
+ for name, amount in expected.items():
+ actual = delta[name] if scenario == "change" else baseline["person"][0][name] if scenario == "baseline" else reformed["person"][0][name]
+ close(actual, amount, f"{case['id']} {scenario} {name}")
+ close(delta["household_benefits"], delta["universal_credit"], f"{case['id']} other benefits unchanged")
+ close(delta["household_net_income"], -delta["income_tax"] - delta["national_insurance"] + delta["universal_credit"], f"{case['id']} net-income identity")
+ trace = None
+ if case["type"] == "lone_parent":
+ old_uc, new_uc = baseline["benunit"], reformed["benunit"]
+ for result in (baseline, reformed):
+ assert result["benunit"]["universal_credit"] > 0
+ close(result["person"][0]["uc_mif_applies"], 0, f"{case['id']} MIF")
+ assert result["benunit"]["uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance"] > result["benunit"]["uc_work_allowance"]
+ close(new_uc["uc_work_allowance"], old_uc["uc_work_allowance"], f"{case['id']} work allowance unchanged")
+ earnings_change = new_uc["uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance"] - old_uc["uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance"]
+ close(earnings_change, -delta["income_tax"] - delta["national_insurance"], f"{case['id']} UC net-earnings increase")
+ close(delta["universal_credit"], -law["uc_taper"] * earnings_change, f"{case['id']} UC taper arithmetic")
+ trace = {
+ "baseline_annual_uc_earnings_before_work_allowance": old_uc["uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance"],
+ "reform_annual_uc_earnings_before_work_allowance": new_uc["uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance"],
+ "annual_work_allowance": old_uc["uc_work_allowance"],
+ "baseline_earnings_above_work_allowance": old_uc["uc_earned_income"],
+ "reform_earnings_above_work_allowance": new_uc["uc_earned_income"],
+ "explanation": "Employment earnings already exceed the work allowance. The entire increase in UC net earnings is tapered at 55%; no work-allowance boundary is crossed.",
+ }
+ comparison = None
+ if "review_claim" in case:
+ comparison = {
+ "claim": case["review_claim"],
+ "matches": all(math.isclose(delta[name], amount, abs_tol=0.02, rel_tol=0) for name, amount in case["review_claim"].items()),
+ }
+ return {**case, "baseline": baseline, "reform": reformed, "change": delta, "uc_trace": trace, "review_comparison": comparison}
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+ parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, default=Path(__file__).with_name("trading_extensions.json"))
+ args = parser.parse_args()
+ versions = {name: metadata.version(name) for name in VERSIONS}
+ assert versions == VERSIONS, (versions, VERSIONS)
+ warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=RuntimeWarning, message="(divide by zero|invalid value) encountered in (divide|multiply)")
+ warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=UserWarning, message="Accessing \\.values on a MicroSeries returns a plain numpy array without weights\\.")
+ law = parameters()
+ cases = [
+ {
+ "id": "lone_parent_4000_receipts", "type": "lone_parent", "inputs": lone_parent(4_000),
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": True, "actual_expenses": 0,
+ "independent_oracle": {"baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 3_000, "income_tax": 1_686}, "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 1_000, "income_tax": 1_286}, "change": {"income_tax": -400, "national_insurance": 0, "universal_credit": -220, "household_net_income": 180}},
+ "review_claim": {"income_tax": -400, "universal_credit": -220, "household_net_income": 180},
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "lone_parent_1500_receipts", "type": "lone_parent", "inputs": lone_parent(1_500),
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": True, "actual_expenses": 0,
+ "independent_oracle": {"baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 500, "income_tax": 1_186}, "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 0, "income_tax": 1_086}, "change": {"income_tax": -100, "national_insurance": 0, "universal_credit": -55, "household_net_income": 45}},
+ "review_claim": {"income_tax": -100, "universal_credit": -21, "household_net_income": 79},
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "lone_parent_1500_profit_receipts_omitted", "type": "lone_parent", "inputs": lone_parent(1_500, False),
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": False, "actual_expenses": 0,
+ "independent_oracle": {"baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 1_500, "income_tax": 1_386}, "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 0, "income_tax": 1_086}, "change": {"income_tax": -300, "national_insurance": 0, "universal_credit": -165, "household_net_income": 135}},
+ "limitation": "Omitting receipts activates the pinned model's fallback. This £300 tax reduction exceeds the legally calculated £100 with receipts supplied; the resulting net gain is £135 instead of £45.",
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "sole_trader_20000_receipts_500_expenses", "type": "sole_trader", "inputs": sole_trader(),
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": True, "actual_expenses": 500,
+ "independent_oracle": {"baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 19_000, "income_tax": 1_286, "ni_class_4": 385.8}, "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 17_000, "income_tax": 886, "ni_class_4": 265.8}, "change": {"income_tax": -400, "national_insurance": -120, "universal_credit": 0, "household_net_income": 520}},
+ "review_claim": {"income_tax": -400, "ni_class_4": -120, "household_net_income": 520},
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "sole_trader_19500_profit_receipts_omitted", "type": "sole_trader", "inputs": sole_trader(False),
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": False, "actual_expenses": 500,
+ "independent_oracle": {"baseline": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 19_500, "income_tax": 1_386, "ni_class_4": 415.8}, "reform": {"taxable_self_employment_income": 19_500, "income_tax": 1_386, "ni_class_4": 415.8}, "change": {"income_tax": 0, "national_insurance": 0, "universal_credit": 0, "household_net_income": 0}},
+ "limitation": "With receipts omitted, profit exceeds both allowance amounts, so the pinned fallback applies no relief on either side. It misses the £520 gain calculated when £20,000 receipts and £500 expenses are represented.",
+ },
+ ]
+ outputs = []
+ for case in cases:
+ output = run_case(case, law)
+ outputs.append(output)
+ print(f"{case['id']}: " + json.dumps({name: round(value, 2) for name, value in output["change"].items()}), flush=True)
+ payload = {
+ "metadata": {
+ "generated_at_utc": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), "model_year": YEAR,
+ "tax_year": "2027–28", "versions": versions, "python": platform.python_version(),
+ "review_url": REVIEW_URL, "review_comment_timestamp_utc": "2026-10-28T15:11:33Z",
+ "baseline_parameters": law, "reform": REFORM,
+ "scope": "Five synthetic case pairs; no population data, behavioural responses or national estimates. Annual model calculations; actual UC assessment periods and timing of tax payments can differ.",
+ "assumptions": "Lone parent age35 with child age4, employment as main job, £18,000 annual wages, side business with zero expenses, London/Central London private rent £12,000/year, UC and Child Benefit take-up true. Sole trader age35, full-time35hours/week, £20,000 receipts and £500 costs, no other income, owns home outright, no UC claim. Both: council tax input zero; no childcare costs, capital, disability, pensions, losses or other income. Omitted inputs otherwise retain pinned model defaults. No UC award, floor amount, work allowance, or earnings intermediate is forced.",
+ "oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "independent_arithmetic": "Basic-rate income tax20% above Personal Allowance£12,570; known-receipt taxable profit=max(0,receipts-max(expenses,allowance)); Class4 NI6% above£12,570; active UC award falls55% of extra UC net earnings above its unchanged work allowance. Missing-receipt outputs separately test the pinned fallback, not the legal receipt-based calculation.",
+ },
+ "cases": outputs,
+ }
+ args.output.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
+ print(f"Verified {len(outputs)} case pairs; wrote {args.output}", flush=True)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+ main()
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
index 143214131..07f8bdc76 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
@@ -92,5 +92,14 @@
175,
180
]
+ },
+ "review_follow_up": {
+ "trading_comment": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472758764",
+ "savings_property_comment": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472939282",
+ "dashboard_households_pr": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/pull/292",
+ "additional_household_pairs": 5,
+ "raw_population_accessed": false,
+ "additional_internal_population_numbers_adopted": false,
+ "final_regeneration_note": "Detailed October forecast tables and council tax are expected; retain the recorded first-estimate snapshot until replacement outputs bind the exact dataset and forecast."
}
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..7a8ae6f2f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
@@ -0,0 +1,966 @@
+{
+ "metadata": {
+ "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T15:19:07.459647+00:00",
+ "model_year": 2027,
+ "tax_year": "2027–28",
+ "versions": {
+ "policyengine": "6.11.1",
+ "policyengine-uk": "2.151.0",
+ "policyengine-core": "3.33.3"
+ },
+ "python": "3.13.14",
+ "review_url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460#issuecomment-6472758764",
+ "review_comment_timestamp_utc": "2026-10-28T15:11:33Z",
+ "baseline_parameters": {
+ "trading_allowance": 1000.0,
+ "uc_taper": 0.55,
+ "uc_work_allowance_monthly_with_housing": 441.94429445251563,
+ "uc_work_allowance_monthly_without_housing": 734.8488268414194
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance": 3000
+ },
+ "scope": "Five synthetic case pairs; no population data, behavioural responses or national estimates. Annual model calculations; actual UC assessment periods and timing of tax payments can differ.",
+ "assumptions": "Lone parent age35 with child age4, employment as main job, £18,000 annual wages, side business with zero expenses, London/Central London private rent £12,000/year, UC and Child Benefit take-up true. Sole trader age35, full-time35hours/week, £20,000 receipts and £500 costs, no other income, owns home outright, no UC claim. Both: council tax input zero; no childcare costs, capital, disability, pensions, losses or other income. Omitted inputs otherwise retain pinned model defaults. No UC award, floor amount, work allowance, or earnings intermediate is forced.",
+ "oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "independent_arithmetic": "Basic-rate income tax20% above Personal Allowance£12,570; known-receipt taxable profit=max(0,receipts-max(expenses,allowance)); Class4 NI6% above£12,570; active UC award falls55% of extra UC net earnings above its unchanged work allowance. Missing-receipt outputs separately test the pinned fallback, not the legal receipt-based calculation."
+ },
+ "cases": [
+ {
+ "id": "lone_parent_4000_receipts",
+ "type": "lone_parent",
+ "inputs": {
+ "people": [
+ {
+ "age": 35,
+ "employment_status": "PT_EMPLOYED",
+ "hours_worked": 1040,
+ "employment_income": 18000,
+ "self_employment_income": 4000,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": false,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 4000
+ },
+ {
+ "age": 4,
+ "employment_status": "CHILD"
+ }
+ ],
+ "benunit": {
+ "would_claim_uc": true,
+ "would_claim_child_benefit": true
+ },
+ "household": {
+ "region": "LONDON",
+ "brma": "CENTRAL_LONDON",
+ "tenure_type": "RENT_PRIVATELY",
+ "rent": 12000,
+ "council_tax": 0
+ }
+ },
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": true,
+ "actual_expenses": 0,
+ "independent_oracle": {
+ "baseline": {
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 3000,
+ "income_tax": 1686
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 1000,
+ "income_tax": 1286
+ },
+ "change": {
+ "income_tax": -400,
+ "national_insurance": 0,
+ "universal_credit": -220,
+ "household_net_income": 180
+ }
+ },
+ "review_claim": {
+ "income_tax": -400,
+ "universal_credit": -220,
+ "household_net_income": 180
+ },
+ "baseline": {
+ "person": [
+ {
+ "employment_income": 18000.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 4000.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 4000.0,
+ "income_tax": 1686.0,
+ "national_insurance": 434.4031066894531,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 3000.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 1000.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 1686.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 600.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 434.4031066894531,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 19879.59765625,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 19879.59765625,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 0.0,
+ "income_tax": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 0.0,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 0.0,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ }
+ ],
+ "benunit": {
+ "universal_credit": 13076.5009765625,
+ "universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap": 13076.5009765625,
+ "claims_universal_credit": 1.0,
+ "uc_maximum_amount": 21093.447265625,
+ "uc_standard_allowance": 5318.5185546875,
+ "uc_child_element": 3774.9287109375,
+ "uc_housing_costs_element": 12000.0,
+ "uc_work_allowance": 5303.33154296875,
+ "uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance": 19879.59765625,
+ "uc_earned_income": 14576.265625,
+ "uc_income_reduction": 8016.9462890625,
+ "uc_benefit_cap_reduction": 0.0,
+ "child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
+ },
+ "household": {
+ "household_net_income": 36801.48828125,
+ "hbai_household_net_income": 34411.92578125,
+ "household_benefits": 17101.892578125,
+ "household_tax": 2300.403076171875,
+ "household_market_income": 22000.0,
+ "household_gross_income": 39101.890625,
+ "rent": 12000.0,
+ "council_tax": 0.0
+ }
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "person": [
+ {
+ "employment_income": 18000.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 4000.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 4000.0,
+ "income_tax": 1286.0,
+ "national_insurance": 434.4031066894531,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 1000.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 3000.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 1286.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 200.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 434.4031066894531,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 20279.59765625,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 20279.59765625,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 0.0,
+ "income_tax": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 0.0,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 0.0,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ }
+ ],
+ "benunit": {
+ "universal_credit": 12856.5009765625,
+ "universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap": 12856.5009765625,
+ "claims_universal_credit": 1.0,
+ "uc_maximum_amount": 21093.447265625,
+ "uc_standard_allowance": 5318.5185546875,
+ "uc_child_element": 3774.9287109375,
+ "uc_housing_costs_element": 12000.0,
+ "uc_work_allowance": 5303.33154296875,
+ "uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance": 20279.59765625,
+ "uc_earned_income": 14976.265625,
+ "uc_income_reduction": 8236.9462890625,
+ "uc_benefit_cap_reduction": 0.0,
+ "child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
+ },
+ "household": {
+ "household_net_income": 36981.48828125,
+ "hbai_household_net_income": 34591.92578125,
+ "household_benefits": 16881.892578125,
+ "household_tax": 1900.403076171875,
+ "household_market_income": 22000.0,
+ "household_gross_income": 38881.890625,
+ "rent": 12000.0,
+ "council_tax": 0.0
+ }
+ },
+ "change": {
+ "income_tax": -400.0,
+ "national_insurance": 0.0,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "universal_credit": -220.0,
+ "household_benefits": -220.0,
+ "household_net_income": 180.0,
+ "hbai_household_net_income": 180.0
+ },
+ "uc_trace": {
+ "baseline_annual_uc_earnings_before_work_allowance": 19879.59765625,
+ "reform_annual_uc_earnings_before_work_allowance": 20279.59765625,
+ "annual_work_allowance": 5303.33154296875,
+ "baseline_earnings_above_work_allowance": 14576.265625,
+ "reform_earnings_above_work_allowance": 14976.265625,
+ "explanation": "Employment earnings already exceed the work allowance. The entire increase in UC net earnings is tapered at 55%; no work-allowance boundary is crossed."
+ },
+ "review_comparison": {
+ "claim": {
+ "income_tax": -400,
+ "universal_credit": -220,
+ "household_net_income": 180
+ },
+ "matches": true
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "lone_parent_1500_receipts",
+ "type": "lone_parent",
+ "inputs": {
+ "people": [
+ {
+ "age": 35,
+ "employment_status": "PT_EMPLOYED",
+ "hours_worked": 1040,
+ "employment_income": 18000,
+ "self_employment_income": 1500,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": false,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 1500
+ },
+ {
+ "age": 4,
+ "employment_status": "CHILD"
+ }
+ ],
+ "benunit": {
+ "would_claim_uc": true,
+ "would_claim_child_benefit": true
+ },
+ "household": {
+ "region": "LONDON",
+ "brma": "CENTRAL_LONDON",
+ "tenure_type": "RENT_PRIVATELY",
+ "rent": 12000,
+ "council_tax": 0
+ }
+ },
+ "gross_receipts_supplied": true,
+ "actual_expenses": 0,
+ "independent_oracle": {
+ "baseline": {
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 500,
+ "income_tax": 1186
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0,
+ "income_tax": 1086
+ },
+ "change": {
+ "income_tax": -100,
+ "national_insurance": 0,
+ "universal_credit": -55,
+ "household_net_income": 45
+ }
+ },
+ "review_claim": {
+ "income_tax": -100,
+ "universal_credit": -21,
+ "household_net_income": 79
+ },
+ "baseline": {
+ "person": [
+ {
+ "employment_income": 18000.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 1500.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 1500.0,
+ "income_tax": 1186.0,
+ "national_insurance": 434.4031066894531,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 500.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 1000.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 1186.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 100.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 434.4031066894531,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 17879.59765625,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 17879.59765625,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 0.0,
+ "income_tax": 0.0,
+ "national_insurance": 0.0,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 0.0,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ }
+ ],
+ "benunit": {
+ "universal_credit": 14176.5009765625,
+ "universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap": 14176.5009765625,
+ "claims_universal_credit": 1.0,
+ "uc_maximum_amount": 21093.447265625,
+ "uc_standard_allowance": 5318.5185546875,
+ "uc_child_element": 3774.9287109375,
+ "uc_housing_costs_element": 12000.0,
+ "uc_work_allowance": 5303.33154296875,
+ "uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance": 17879.59765625,
+ "uc_earned_income": 12576.265625,
+ "uc_income_reduction": 6916.9462890625,
+ "uc_benefit_cap_reduction": 0.0,
+ "child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
+ },
+ "household": {
+ "household_net_income": 35901.48828125,
+ "hbai_household_net_income": 33511.92578125,
+ "household_benefits": 18201.892578125,
+ "household_tax": 1800.403076171875,
+ "household_market_income": 19500.0,
+ "household_gross_income": 37701.890625,
+ "rent": 12000.0,
+ "council_tax": 0.0
+ }
+ },
+ "reform": {
+ "person": [
+ {
+ "employment_income": 18000.0,
+ "self_employment_income": 1500.0,
+ "self_employment_gross_receipts": 1500.0,
+ "income_tax": 1086.0,
+ "national_insurance": 434.4031066894531,
+ "ni_class_4": 0.0,
+ "taxable_self_employment_income": 0.0,
+ "trading_allowance_deduction": 1500.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_earnings": 1086.0,
+ "uc_income_tax_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_earnings": 434.4031066894531,
+ "uc_national_insurance_on_trade": 0.0,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif": 17979.59765625,
+ "uc_individual_earned_income": 17979.59765625,
+ "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": 0.0,
+ "uc_mif_applies": 0.0
+ },
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+ },
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+ "hbai_household_net_income": 45.0
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+ }
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "matches": true
+ }
+ },
+ {
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+ },
+ "limitation": "With receipts omitted, profit exceeds both allowance amounts, so the pinned fallback applies no relief on either side. It misses the £520 gain calculated when £20,000 receipts and £500 expenses are represented.",
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+ ]
+}
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
deleted file mode 100644
index c1eea2abc..000000000
--- a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,45 +0,0 @@
-
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index a126b8a96..18f1e9fe0 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -1,12 +1,14 @@
The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html).
-In the examples below, a basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more.
+PolicyEngine estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, compared with the Treasury's **£160 million** for that year. These are preliminary static estimates; the Treasury costing includes behavioural responses.
-This post examines this provision on its own. The [UK Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced measures. We cover the trading allowance increase in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance).
+A basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord in England with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more; a Scottish landlord with the same fully usable finance costs pays £80 less.
+
+A [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance) covers the trading allowance increase.
## What changes in April 2027?
-Budget 2025 had already set savings and property rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. The comparison here therefore measures the additional two-point increase announced in 2026, using the existing 2027 rules as the baseline.
+The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) had already set savings and property rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027. The additional two-point increase is measured against those existing 2027 rules.
| Income tax band | Already scheduled for 2027–28 | Budget 2026 rate | Change |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
@@ -14,7 +16,7 @@ Budget 2025 had already set savings and property rates at 22%, 42% and 47% from
| Higher | 42% | 44% | +2 percentage points |
| Additional | 47% | 49% | +2 percentage points |
-The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income/change-to-tax-rates-for-property-savings-and-dividend-income-technical-note) sets the ordering from April 2027: employment, pension and trading income first; property next; savings after that; and dividends last. Allowances first reduce income other than property, savings or dividends. Taxable income then fills the bands in that order, so employment and rental income can push savings interest into a higher band.
+The same note sets the ordering from April 2027: employment, pension and trading income first; property next; savings after that; and dividends last. Allowances first reduce income other than property, savings or dividends. Taxable income then fills the bands in that order, so employment and rental income can push savings interest into a higher band.
## Savers pay the higher rates on interest above their allowances
@@ -116,7 +118,7 @@ The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income leve
For individual residential landlords, mortgage interest normally produces a tax reduction rather than a deduction from rental profits. The reduction is limited by finance costs, property profits, adjusted total income and the tax liability. [HMRC's explanation of residential finance-cost relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/changes-to-tax-relief-for-residential-landlords-how-its-worked-out-including-case-studies) describes these limits.
-From April 2027 the relief follows the property basic rate. This Budget therefore raises it from the already scheduled 22% to 24%. That offsets part of the tax increase for landlords with eligible finance costs.
+From April 2027 the relief follows the property basic rate, as the [Treasury policy costings, pages 74 and 75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=74 "Treasury policy costings #page 74-75") confirm. This Budget therefore raises it from the already scheduled 22% to 24%. That offsets part of the tax increase for landlords with eligible finance costs. The dashboard calculator has no finance-cost input, so the mortgage examples below illustrate an effect its preset cannot show.
Consider two adults in England, each with £12,000 of rent, £2,000 of allowable non-finance expenses and £4,000 of qualifying mortgage interest. Deducting actual non-finance expenses leaves £10,000 of property profit. Both can use the full finance-cost reduction.
@@ -149,49 +151,51 @@ Property income fills that remaining £5,270, with £730 entering the higher ban
The extra tax is £120 on property plus £30 on savings, or **£150 a year**. The calculation shows why the order of income sources matters even when each rate rises by the same two percentage points.
+[Try the Budget dashboard's calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026). Its salary input is for 2026–27 and is grown into the target year, while this table fixes salary at £45,000 in 2027–28. On its current earnings path, a £45,000 salary input becomes about £46,080, giving total tax of £9,014 before and £9,164 after. The additional tax remains £150. These values can be entered manually; the existing preset may use different incomes.
+
## Preliminary national estimates
-The dashboard's [provisional revenue output](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv), generated on 28 October at 14:34 UTC, estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The results are awaiting reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+The dashboard's [revenue estimate](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv) estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The estimates remain preliminary while the Treasury comparison is reconciled.
-The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/winners_losers.csv) show an annual household income reduction of **£22.67 across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. The largest average cash loss is in the highest income decile, at £107.13. Deciles are ranked by baseline equivalised household net income, which accounts for household size.
+The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/winners_losers.csv) show an annual household income reduction of **£23 across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. Households in the top decile lose £107 on average. Each decile contains roughly equal numbers of people, ranked by household income adjusted for household size. The cash figures are household-weighted averages within those groups.
| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
| --- | ---: |
-| 1 (lowest income) | −£12.90 |
-| 2 | −£5.69 |
-| 3 | −£6.66 |
-| 4 | −£7.31 |
-| 5 | −£6.00 |
-| 6 | −£9.13 |
-| 7 | −£10.94 |
-| 8 | −£21.51 |
-| 9 | −£37.04 |
-| 10 (highest income) | −£107.13 |
-| All households | −£22.67 |
+| 1 (lowest income) | −£13 |
+| 2 | −£6 |
+| 3 | −£7 |
+| 4 | −£7 |
+| 5 | −£6 |
+| 6 | −£9 |
+| 7 | −£11 |
+| 8 | −£22 |
+| 9 | −£37 |
+| 10 (highest income) | −£107 |
+| All households | −£23 |
-The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/metrics.csv) is **10.67% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a taxpayer count or a headcount. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing, so an average loss within a decile should not be read as a loss for every household in it.
+The model's [population results](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/metrics.csv) indicate that **10.67% of people live in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. An average loss within a decile does not mean every household in it loses. The lowest decile's £13 average loss also exceeds the £6 to £11 averages in deciles 2 to 7; an income-source breakdown is needed to establish what drives that pattern.
-## The Treasury forecasts revenue of £1.13 billion in 2028–29
+The government estimates that **84% of income tax payers are unaffected** in 2027–28 and that around half the revenue comes from the top 10% of households. Budget footnote 74 bases these estimates on projected HMRC Survey of Personal Incomes data and Treasury household mapping. The model's affected-person share uses a different population and threshold from the taxpayer estimate, so the two reach figures are not directly comparable. The decile means also do not establish a share of government revenue: that comparison requires weighted tax totals by decile.
-The Treasury costs the savings and property changes separately. Their sum reaches £1,130 million in 2028–29 and £1,045 million in 2031–32.
+## The Treasury's costing: £160 million in 2027–28
+
+The Treasury costs savings and property separately. Their combined forecast is £160 million in 2027–28 and £1,045 million in 2031–32.
| Exchequer revenue, £ million | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | 2028–29 | 2029–30 | 2030–31 | 2031–32 |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Property income rates | 0 | 35 | 575 | 435 | 445 | 455 |
| Savings income rates | 15 | 125 | 555 | 520 | 555 | 590 |
| Treasury combined | 15 | 160 | 1,130 | 955 | 1,000 | 1,045 |
-| PolicyEngine, provisional static | 0 | 664 | 696 | 728 | 762 | 793 |
+| PolicyEngine, preliminary static | 0 | 664 | 696 | 728 | 762 | 793 |
-These government receipts forecasts differ from annual household liabilities. The [Treasury policy costings, #page 74-75](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=74) allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. The PolicyEngine run holds those choices fixed. Tax-year liabilities and fiscal-year receipts forecasts also differ in timing. Reconciliation has not yet established how much of the gap between these estimates comes from behaviour, collection timing or model coverage.
+The Treasury costings allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. The static model holds those choices fixed. The published costing notes do not explain the annual profile, including the £15 million savings figure in 2026–27 before the rates take effect. No particular collection-timing explanation is assumed here. A component comparison is needed to distinguish the property and savings contributions to the difference.
## Methodology
The examples isolate the newly announced 2027–28 changes, including finance-cost relief, holding income and expenses constant. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans or other reliefs. They show tax attributable to each income source, rather than household net income after benefits.
-The examples use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the pre-Budget policy baseline and parameter changes in the dashboard's [`unearned_income_rates_up` measure](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/b50787aa75ef5aed36b822c973afa6b569464d55/src/uk_budget_data/reforms.py). The calculations check tax changes against independent arithmetic.
-
-The national figures reuse the dashboard's [recorded execution receipt](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/receipt.json), generated at source commit `0d9dccb2`. They use certified national dataset `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504` and the October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
+The examples use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3. Income is fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts, and tax changes are checked against independent arithmetic.
-The receipt records a passed disclosure floor of at least three survey households per published cell; no thin decile cells are recorded. The affected-population calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1, and includes only households with a valid decile. Its percentage does not establish how many people gain or lose.
+The national estimates use the certified Microcosm UK 2024–25 national data and the initial October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by that overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460/files) record exact dataset identifiers, checksums, parameter changes and calculation records.
-**Draft status:** the population results are provisional and marked `awaiting_source` for reconciliation in the preview manifest. Final reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares remain outstanding.
+Published decile cells meet a disclosure floor of at least three survey households. The affected-person calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1 and includes households with a valid decile. It does not supply separate shares gaining and losing or absolute affected-person counts. The income-source explanation for the lowest-decile result and the component reconciliation remain outstanding.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
deleted file mode 100644
index d96ab10b1..000000000
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,175 +0,0 @@
-The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) announces an increase in the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027. The allowance covers eligible trading and miscellaneous income. For an employee paying 20% income tax on their side income, the extra £2,000 deduction can reduce annual income tax by £400. The reduction depends on receipts, expenses and how much tax the individual would otherwise pay.
-
-This post examines that measure on its own. Our [Budget dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
-
-## How the allowance works
-
-The allowance is an alternative to deducting actual business expenses. Gross receipts are the money received before expenses; profit is what remains after those expenses. A person with £4,000 of receipts and £500 of allowable expenses has £3,500 of profit before considering the allowance.
-
-Under [HMRC's trading allowance guidance](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tax-free-allowances-on-property-and-trading-income), an eligible person can choose the allowance or actual expenses. They cannot deduct both against the same receipts. If receipts are within the allowance, full relief can make the taxable amount zero. The allowance cannot create a tax loss.
-
-There is one allowance per individual across their eligible trades and miscellaneous income, rather than a separate allowance for each activity. The allocation between sources follows [section 783AK of the Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/5/section/783AK). The separate property income allowance does not increase under this measure.
-
-## Three people with the same receipts
-
-Consider three hypothetical single adults in England in 2027–28. Each earns £30,000 from employment and receives £4,000 from a side business. They have no other income, dependants, student loan repayments or benefit entitlements. Their trading profits remain in the 20% income tax band. Their costs differ.
-
-The table isolates income tax on the side business, holding receipts and expenses fixed.
-
-| Annual side-business receipts | Actual expenses | Taxable amount under current rules | Taxable amount under new rules | Income tax before | Income tax after | Annual tax reduction |
-| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
-| £4,000 | £500 | £3,000 | £1,000 | £600 | £200 | £400 |
-| £4,000 | £2,500 | £1,500 | £1,000 | £300 | £200 | £100 |
-| £4,000 | £3,500 | £500 | £500 | £100 | £100 | £0 |
-
-In the first case, the allowance exceeds expenses under both rules. Taxable income falls from £4,000 − £1,000 = £3,000 to £4,000 − £3,000 = £1,000. The tax reduction is £2,000 × 20% = £400.
-
-In the second case, actual expenses provide the larger deduction under current law. The £3,000 allowance then exceeds those £2,500 expenses by £500, reducing tax by £500 × 20% = £100.
-
-In the third case, actual expenses exceed both allowances. The individual continues to deduct £3,500, so taxable income and tax do not change.
-
-At a 40% marginal rate, the same calculations give reductions of £800, £200 and £0, assuming no tax-band changes or other interactions.
-
-## From £500 to £5,000 of side income
-
-The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assumes no business expenses; the other assumes expenses equal 75% of receipts. Each calculation chooses the larger deduction in each scenario.
-
-```chart
-{
- "type": "bar",
- "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
- "subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
- "xKey": "receipts",
- "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
- "format": {
- "prefix": "£",
- "decimals": 0
- },
- "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
- "series": [
- {
- "key": "noExpenses",
- "name": "No business expenses",
- "color": "primary"
- },
- {
- "key": "highExpenses",
- "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts",
- "color": "secondary"
- }
- ],
- "data": [
- {
- "receipts": "£500",
- "noExpenses": 0.0,
- "highExpenses": 0.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£1,000",
- "noExpenses": 0.0,
- "highExpenses": 0.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£1,500",
- "noExpenses": 100.0,
- "highExpenses": 75.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£2,000",
- "noExpenses": 200.0,
- "highExpenses": 100.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£2,500",
- "noExpenses": 300.0,
- "highExpenses": 125.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£3,000",
- "noExpenses": 400.0,
- "highExpenses": 150.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£3,500",
- "noExpenses": 400.0,
- "highExpenses": 75.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£4,000",
- "noExpenses": 400.0,
- "highExpenses": 0.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£4,500",
- "noExpenses": 400.0,
- "highExpenses": 0.0
- },
- {
- "receipts": "£5,000",
- "noExpenses": 400.0,
- "highExpenses": 0.0
- }
- ]
-}
-```
-
-With no expenses, the tax reduction rises between £1,000 and £3,000 of receipts, then stays at £400. With expenses equal to 75% of receipts, the reduction reaches £150 at £3,000 of receipts and falls to zero at £4,000: actual expenses then equal the new £3,000 allowance.
-
-## National Insurance and benefit interactions
-
-[HMRC's National Insurance guidance](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86052) confirms that the trading allowance also reduces the profits used to calculate Class 4 contributions. However, all the side-business examples above remain below the [£12,570 Class 4 lower profits limit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions). They have no Class 4 reduction; employment National Insurance is unchanged.
-
-Universal Credit uses separate self-employment income rules. The allowance itself does not reduce income for Universal Credit purposes, as HMRC's allowance guidance explains. A full household calculation must also account for any change in tax paid and the benefit rules that apply to that household.
-
-The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
-
-## Preliminary national estimates
-
-The dashboard's [provisional cost output](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv), generated on 28 October at 14:34 UTC, estimates a **£112 million cost in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects. The receipt warns that missing gross receipts in the population data can overstate the cost, and the results are awaiting reconciliation with Treasury costings.
-
-The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/winners_losers.csv) show a **£3.83 annual household income gain across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. The highest average gain is in decile 8, at £8.57. These population averages include people with no eligible trading income; the worked examples above describe particular eligible individuals. Deciles are ranked by baseline equivalised household net income, which accounts for household size.
-
-| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
-| --- | ---: |
-| 1 (lowest income) | +£0.83 |
-| 2 | +£3.39 |
-| 3 | +£1.04 |
-| 4 | +£0.45 |
-| 5 | +£2.11 |
-| 6 | +£3.43 |
-| 7 | +£5.73 |
-| 8 | +£8.57 |
-| 9 | +£6.18 |
-| 10 (highest income) | +£7.03 |
-| All households | +£3.83 |
-
-The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
-
-## Treasury costing
-
-The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column reports the provisional static estimates. Both columns express costs to the Exchequer as positive values.
-
-| Year | Treasury cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine provisional static cost (£ million) |
-| --- | ---: | ---: |
-| 2026–27 | 0 | 0 |
-| 2027–28 | 0 | 112 |
-| 2028–29 | 225 | 120 |
-| 2029–30 | 165 | 113 |
-| 2030–31 | 175 | 123 |
-| 2031–32 | 180 | 131 |
-
-The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and the government's fiscal-year receipts forecasts are different quantities. The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) also allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. The static model holds circumstances fixed and also faces the gross-receipts coverage limit. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates.
-
-## Methodology and coverage
-
-The worked examples isolate the allowance increase and use hypothetical households. They hold earnings, receipts and expenses fixed, assume the individual selects the larger deduction, and exclude losses, behavioural responses and other tax or benefit interactions.
-
-The household calculations use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the dashboard's `trading_allowance_raise` measure. They supply both gross receipts and profit so the model can represent actual expenses, and check the resulting tax changes against independent arithmetic.
-
-In the population data, gross receipts are unavailable. The pinned model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) uses an approximation that can overstate or understate the reform's effect for individual records. It also does not apply this allowance to its separate miscellaneous-income input, although eligible miscellaneous income is within the announced policy. These coverage limits matter when interpreting national results.
-
-The national figures reuse the dashboard's [recorded execution receipt](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), generated at source commit `0d9dccb2`. They use certified national dataset `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504` and the October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
-
-The receipt records a passed disclosure floor of at least three survey households per published cell; no thin decile cells are recorded. The affected-population calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1, and includes only households with a valid decile. Its percentage does not establish how many people gain or lose.
-
-**Draft status:** the population results are provisional and marked `awaiting_source` for reconciliation in the preview manifest. Final reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate winner/loser shares remain outstanding.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
index 50f3c400b..47200893e 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
@@ -8,15 +8,6 @@
"filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md",
"image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg"
},
- {
- "title": "Autumn Budget 2026: raising the trading allowance",
- "description": "The trading allowance rises from £1,000 to £3,000. We show how receipts and actual expenses determine the income tax reduction.",
- "date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
- "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"],
- "authors": ["ziming-hua"],
- "filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md",
- "image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg"
- },
{
"title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency",
"description": "We estimate the surcharge raises \u00a3410 million in 2028-29 from owner-occupied main residences in England before behavioural responses, 39% of it from 10 constituencies.",
From 932ae46f726eb840f3e559b525e33ca5492c19eb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: PavelMakarchuk
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:43:31 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 06/36] Keep line chart axis labels, axis title and legend
apart
The first x tick label no longer touches the lowest y tick label at the
plot's corner, and the legend sits clear of the x axis title. Checked on
every chart in the PTA post at 1280 and 375 pixels wide.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5
---
website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 15 +++++++++++++--
1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
index 94e6ed510..181038184 100644
--- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
+++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx
@@ -214,13 +214,16 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) {
tick={AXIS_STYLE}
axisLine={false}
tickLine={false}
+ // Drop the x tick labels below the lowest y tick label, which
+ // sits on the axis line at the plot's corner.
+ tickMargin={10}
tickFormatter={xTick}
label={
spec.xLabel
? {
value: spec.xLabel,
position: "insideBottom",
- offset: -4,
+ offset: -14,
style: AXIS_STYLE,
}
: undefined
@@ -270,7 +273,15 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) {
String(name),
]}
/>
-
+
{spec.series.map((s, i) => (
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:43:35 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 07/36] Add standalone trading allowance explainer with UC and
sole-trader cases
---
...k-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg | 45 ++++
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 212 ++++++++++++++++++
app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 16 ++
3 files changed, 273 insertions(+)
create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..c1eea2abc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..18c06bf1e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -0,0 +1,212 @@
+The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. Our preliminary static estimate puts the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28**. The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a **£225 million receipts cost in 2028–29**. These figures cover different years and use different methods.
+
+An employee paying 20% income tax on their side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction. A sole trader can also save National Insurance, while Universal Credit can offset part of a claimant's tax saving. Receipts, expenses and other household circumstances determine the gain.
+
+Our [Budget dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+
+## How the allowance works
+
+The allowance is an alternative to deducting actual business expenses. Gross receipts are the money received before expenses; profit is what remains after those expenses. A person with £4,000 of receipts and £500 of allowable expenses has £3,500 of profit before considering the allowance.
+
+Under [HMRC's trading allowance guidance](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tax-free-allowances-on-property-and-trading-income), an eligible person can choose the allowance or actual expenses. They cannot deduct both against the same receipts. If receipts are within the allowance, full relief can make the taxable amount zero.
+
+The allowance cannot create a tax loss. [HMRC's full-relief rules](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86011) treat the profits and losses of relevant trades as nil. A loss-making trader can elect out and use ordinary loss rules, as [HMRC's trading-loss example](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86076) illustrates.
+
+There is one allowance per individual across their eligible trades and miscellaneous income, rather than a separate allowance for each activity. The allocation between sources follows [section 783AK of the Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/5/section/783AK). The separate property income allowance does not increase under this measure.
+
+The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
+
+## Three people with the same receipts
+
+Alex, Blair and Casey are hypothetical single adults aged 35 in England in 2027–28. Each earns £30,000 from employment and receives £4,000 from a side business. They have no other income, dependants, student loan repayments or benefit entitlements. Their trading profits remain in the 20% income tax band. Their costs differ.
+
+The table isolates income tax on the side business, holding receipts and expenses fixed.
+
+| Person | Annual side-business receipts | Actual expenses | Taxable amount under current rules | Taxable amount under new rules | Income tax before | Income tax after | Annual tax reduction |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| Alex | £4,000 | £500 | £3,000 | £1,000 | £600 | £200 | £400 |
+| Blair | £4,000 | £2,500 | £1,500 | £1,000 | £300 | £200 | £100 |
+| Casey | £4,000 | £3,500 | £500 | £500 | £100 | £100 | £0 |
+
+For Alex, the allowance exceeds expenses under both rules. Taxable income falls from £4,000 − £1,000 = £3,000 to £4,000 − £3,000 = £1,000. The tax reduction is £2,000 × 20% = £400.
+
+For Blair, actual expenses provide the larger deduction under current law. The £3,000 allowance then exceeds those £2,500 expenses by £500, reducing tax by £500 × 20% = £100.
+
+For Casey, actual expenses exceed both allowances. The individual continues to deduct £3,500, so taxable income and tax do not change.
+
+At a 40% marginal rate, the same calculations give reductions of £800, £200 and £0, assuming no tax-band changes or other interactions.
+
+Alex is also the household proposed for the dashboard's trading-allowance example. Its North West location and salary growth do not change this £400 result. The table fixes income in 2027–28 and isolates the allowance; select that measure alone when comparing with the calculator, whose spending inputs can also activate other Budget measures.
+
+## From £500 to £5,000 of side income
+
+The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assumes no business expenses; the other assumes expenses equal 75% of receipts. Each calculation chooses the larger deduction in each scenario.
+
+```chart
+{
+ "type": "bar",
+ "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
+ "subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
+ "xKey": "receipts",
+ "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "format": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0
+ },
+ "source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
+ "series": [
+ {
+ "key": "noExpenses",
+ "name": "No business expenses",
+ "color": "primary"
+ },
+ {
+ "key": "highExpenses",
+ "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts",
+ "color": "secondary"
+ }
+ ],
+ "data": [
+ {
+ "receipts": "£500",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,000",
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£1,500",
+ "noExpenses": 100.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,000",
+ "noExpenses": 200.0,
+ "highExpenses": 100.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£2,500",
+ "noExpenses": 300.0,
+ "highExpenses": 125.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 150.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£3,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 75.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£4,500",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": "£5,000",
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ }
+ ]
+}
+```
+
+With no expenses, the tax reduction rises between £1,000 and £3,000 of receipts, then stays at £400. With expenses equal to 75% of receipts, the reduction reaches £150 at £3,000 of receipts and falls to zero at £4,000: actual expenses then equal the new £3,000 allowance.
+
+## A full-time sole trader can gain £520
+
+The allowance also reduces profits for Class 4 National Insurance, as [HMRC's Business Income Manual, BIM86052](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86052), explains. The side-business examples above remain below the [£12,570 Class 4 lower profits limit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions), so their Class 4 contributions do not change.
+
+Consider instead a 35-year-old sole trader in England working 35 hours a week, with £20,000 annual receipts and £500 expenses. They have no other income or children, own their home outright and do not claim Universal Credit. Actual profit is £19,500. Choosing the allowance gives taxable profits of £19,000 before the change and £17,000 after it.
+
+| Annual calculation, 2027–28 | £1,000 allowance | £3,000 allowance | Reduction |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Taxable trading profit | £19,000 | £17,000 | £2,000 |
+| Income tax | £1,286 | £886 | £400 |
+| Class 4 National Insurance | £385.80 | £265.80 | £120 |
+| Combined tax and Class 4 | £1,671.80 | £1,151.80 | £520 |
+
+Both taxable profits exceed the £12,570 lower limit, so the extra £2,000 deduction saves 6% in Class 4 contributions as well as 20% income tax. With benefits unchanged, annual household net income rises by £520.
+
+## Universal Credit can offset part of the tax saving
+
+The trading allowance itself does not reduce the profit counted for Universal Credit. However, paying less income tax can increase the earnings UC takes into account, reducing the award.
+
+Our example is a 35-year-old lone parent with a four-year-old child, living in Central London and paying £12,000 annual private rent. They earn £18,000 from employment for 20 hours a week and claim UC and Child Benefit. They have no assets, childcare costs, disability, pension contributions or other income. The side business has zero expenses and is not their main employment: it is assumed not to meet UC's gainful self-employment definition, so the minimum income floor does not apply.
+
+| Annual side-business receipts | Income tax reduction | UC reduction | Household net-income gain |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| £4,000 | £400 | £220 | £180 |
+| £1,500 | £100 | £55 | £45 |
+
+In both cases, earnings already exceed the work allowance. Every £1 of tax saved increases counted earnings by £1, and UC falls by the [55% taper](https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/how-your-wages-affect-your-payments) applied to that increase. At £1,500 of receipts, the £100 tax saving therefore reduces UC by £55, leaving a £45 net gain.
+
+These are annual model results. Actual UC uses monthly assessment periods and deducts relevant self-employment income tax and National Insurance when paid, under [regulation 57(2)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/57). Uneven receipts or a large tax payment in one month can produce a different pattern of awards and a different annual gain.
+
+## Preliminary national estimates
+
+The dashboard's [preliminary cost estimates](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv) put the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects, holding incomes and behaviour fixed. Missing gross receipts and incomplete miscellaneous-income coverage limit the estimates, which remain provisional pending reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+
+The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/winners_losers.csv) show a **£4 annual household income gain across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. Households in decile 8 gain £9 on average. These averages include households with no eligible trading income. Each decile contains roughly equal numbers of people ranked by household income adjusted for household size; the cash figures are household-weighted means within those groups. Figures below are rounded to the nearest pound.
+
+| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
+| --- | ---: |
+| 1 (lowest income) | +£1 |
+| 2 | +£3 |
+| 3 | +£1 |
+| 4 | +£0 |
+| 5 | +£2 |
+| 6 | +£3 |
+| 7 | +£6 |
+| 8 | +£9 |
+| 9 | +£6 |
+| 10 (highest income) | +£7 |
+| All households | +£4 |
+
+The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
+
+## Treasury costing
+
+The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column reports the provisional static estimates. Both columns express costs to the Exchequer as positive values.
+
+| Year | Treasury cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine provisional static cost (£ million) |
+| --- | ---: | ---: |
+| 2026–27 | 0 | 0 |
+| 2027–28 | 0 | 112 |
+| 2028–29 | 225 | 120 |
+| 2029–30 | 165 | 113 |
+| 2030–31 | 175 | 123 |
+| 2031–32 | 180 | 131 |
+
+The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and fiscal-year receipts forecasts differ. For context, an outstanding Self Assessment balancing payment for 2027–28 would normally be due on 31 January 2029. Some taxpayers also make advance instalments, as [HMRC's payments-on-account guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains.
+
+The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. It does not give an affected-person count. The static model holds circumstances fixed and faces the coverage limits below. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates to timing, behaviour or coverage.
+
+## Methodology and coverage
+
+The hypothetical examples isolate the allowance increase, holding earnings, receipts and expenses fixed and choosing the larger deduction. The side-business tax table excludes benefit interactions; the lone-parent and sole-trader examples calculate the stated tax, National Insurance and benefit changes. None includes trading losses or behavioural responses.
+
+The household calculations use PolicyEngine 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the dashboard. They supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, and check the resulting tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic.
+
+Gross receipts are unavailable in the population data. The model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) therefore approximates the allowance using reported profit. Tests with the same hypothetical households show effects in both directions:
+
+- For the parent with £1,500 of receipts and no expenses, supplying receipts produces the correct £100 tax reduction. Omitting receipts makes the approximation tax the full £1,500 before the reform and none afterwards, producing a £300 reduction.
+- For the sole trader with £20,000 receipts and £500 expenses, supplying receipts produces the £520 tax-and-NI gain above. With only the £19,500 profit supplied, the approximation applies no deduction under either allowance, producing no gain.
+
+This population approximation also misses Class 4 savings: the profits it relieves are at most £3,000, below the £12,570 lower profits limit.
+
+The model also omits allowance relief against its separate miscellaneous-income input, although qualifying miscellaneous income shares the legal allowance. This excludes a category of potential gains. The combined direction of bias in the national estimate remains unknown.
+
+The national figures use the dashboard's [documented calculations](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), based on certified 2024–25 UK population data released in October 2026. Both baseline and reform use the October 2026 OBR forecast update. Growth series not updated retain the model's March forecast path, and the population data retain their pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
+
+**Preliminary estimates:** reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate shares gaining and losing remain outstanding. The population figures should be read with the coverage limits above.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
index 47200893e..bdc092df7 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
@@ -1,4 +1,20 @@
[
+ {
+ "title": "Autumn Budget 2026: raising the trading allowance",
+ "description": "The trading allowance rises from £1,000 to £3,000. We show how receipts and actual expenses determine the income tax reduction.",
+ "date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
+ "tags": [
+ "uk",
+ "policy",
+ "tax",
+ "autumn-budget"
+ ],
+ "authors": [
+ "ziming-hua"
+ ],
+ "filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md",
+ "image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg"
+ },
{
"title": "Autumn Budget 2026: higher tax on savings and property income",
"description": "Worked examples of the additional two percentage point increase from April 2027, including savings allowances and landlords' mortgage-interest relief.",
From b2a1836e40f64b1ad2ca4235a219e6b14605d7cc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:47:38 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 08/36] Pin Budget paragraph citations and record latest review
decisions
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 11 +++++++++++
...-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 4 ++--
2 files changed, 13 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
index 458323ea2..86a2eba41 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -58,3 +58,14 @@ Still needed before publication:
- Replace preview artifact links when verified public artifacts exist; complete visual preview and editorial review.
The articles remain drafts. Publication approval is separate from readiness for agent review. The trading article will have its own stacked PR, reusing this shared analysis foundation.
+
+
+## Latest review follow-ups and PR split
+
+- Savings/property remains draft PR1460. Trading is separate draft PR1463, stacked on1460 for shared analysis. Both link to dashboard292, and the dashboard cross-reference links both articles.
+- Max confirmed the savings/property revision at5a70185a in comment6473557134 and withdrew the48% inference. The two remaining requests were precise paragraph citations and final component exports.
+- Official Budget PDF physical page142 was checked for paragraphs6.246/6.247 and6.254; physical45 contains paragraph2.50. These are now the rule citations.
+- Max's newer trading comment on1463,6473574155, agrees to omit the unsupported260,000 count and£71m sensitivity; the latter ignores the shared allowance. Those figures remain excluded.
+- Per that follow-up, only the mutually reproduced£180 UC example is retained in the article. The£1,500 diagnostic pair remains in the raw analysis record, with both input sets distinguished, rather than presented as an explained cross-run comparison.
+- The trading lead example is named Alex and remains first: age35, salary30k, receipts4k, costs500, tax reduction400. UC and full-time self-employment are additional examples.
+- A fresh complete pass covered all five Max conversation comments on1460 and the follow-up on1463, including edits through15:45:19UTC. Both PRs had no inline review threads or submitted reviews in that pass.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index 18f1e9fe0..3a1fe68b0 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html).
+The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026, paragraphs 6.246 and 6.247](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142 "Budget 2026 #page 142,45").
PolicyEngine estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, compared with the Treasury's **£160 million** for that year. These are preliminary static estimates; the Treasury costing includes behavioural responses.
@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-bud
The model's [population results](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/metrics.csv) indicate that **10.67% of people live in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. An average loss within a decile does not mean every household in it loses. The lowest decile's £13 average loss also exceeds the £6 to £11 averages in deciles 2 to 7; an income-source breakdown is needed to establish what drives that pattern.
-The government estimates that **84% of income tax payers are unaffected** in 2027–28 and that around half the revenue comes from the top 10% of households. Budget footnote 74 bases these estimates on projected HMRC Survey of Personal Incomes data and Treasury household mapping. The model's affected-person share uses a different population and threshold from the taxpayer estimate, so the two reach figures are not directly comparable. The decile means also do not establish a share of government revenue: that comparison requires weighted tax totals by decile.
+The government estimates that **84% of income tax payers are unaffected** in 2027–28 and that around half the revenue comes from the top 10% of households. Budget paragraph 2.50 and footnote 74 base these estimates on projected HMRC Survey of Personal Incomes data and Treasury household mapping. The model's affected-person share uses a different population and threshold from the taxpayer estimate, so the two reach figures are not directly comparable. The decile means also do not establish a share of government revenue: that comparison requires weighted tax totals by decile.
## The Treasury's costing: £160 million in 2027–28
From ab103160e04c9846156cc7735eb0c2a8f8662e51 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:47:39 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 09/36] Use agreed UC example and cite the Budget trading
paragraph
---
.../articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 5 ++---
1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index 18c06bf1e..f835fbe03 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-The [Autumn Budget 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. Our preliminary static estimate puts the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28**. The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a **£225 million receipts cost in 2028–29**. These figures cover different years and use different methods.
+The [Autumn Budget 2026, paragraph 6.254](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. Our preliminary static estimate puts the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28**. The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a **£225 million receipts cost in 2028–29**. These figures cover different years and use different methods.
An employee paying 20% income tax on their side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction. A sole trader can also save National Insurance, while Universal Credit can offset part of a claimant's tax saving. Receipts, expenses and other household circumstances determine the gain.
@@ -147,9 +147,8 @@ Our example is a 35-year-old lone parent with a four-year-old child, living in C
| Annual side-business receipts | Income tax reduction | UC reduction | Household net-income gain |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| £4,000 | £400 | £220 | £180 |
-| £1,500 | £100 | £55 | £45 |
-In both cases, earnings already exceed the work allowance. Every £1 of tax saved increases counted earnings by £1, and UC falls by the [55% taper](https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/how-your-wages-affect-your-payments) applied to that increase. At £1,500 of receipts, the £100 tax saving therefore reduces UC by £55, leaving a £45 net gain.
+Earnings already exceed the work allowance. Every £1 of tax saved increases counted earnings by £1, and UC falls by the [55% taper](https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/how-your-wages-affect-your-payments) applied to that increase. The £400 tax reduction therefore leaves a £180 household gain.
These are annual model results. Actual UC uses monthly assessment periods and deducts relevant self-employment income tax and National Insurance when paid, under [regulation 57(2)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/57). Uneven receipts or a large tax payment in one month can produce a different pattern of awards and a different annual gain.
From 6d3b480aac7f9f8a448b7add2ed078c82436d91c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:04:11 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 10/36] Round savings/property worked table to whole pounds
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 7 +++++++
...k-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 10 +++++-----
2 files changed, 12 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
index 86a2eba41..ddde6df8a 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -69,3 +69,10 @@ The articles remain drafts. Publication approval is separate from readiness for
- Per that follow-up, only the mutually reproduced£180 UC example is retained in the article. The£1,500 diagnostic pair remains in the raw analysis record, with both input sets distinguished, rather than presented as an explained cross-run comparison.
- The trading lead example is named Alex and remains first: age35, salary30k, receipts4k, costs500, tax reduction400. UC and full-time self-employment are additional examples.
- A fresh complete pass covered all five Max conversation comments on1460 and the follow-up on1463, including edits through15:45:19UTC. Both PRs had no inline review threads or submitted reviews in that pass.
+
+
+## Rounding correction at 16:01 UTC
+
+Max's latest comments on PR1460 (6473972686) and PR1463 (6473966614) supersede the earlier permission to retain pence in worked tables. Reader-facing tables now use whole pounds throughout; pence are permitted only in prose spelling out a formula. Exact model outputs and hashed source files retain their original precision. The rounded band-crossing components still sum to£8,582/£8,732, and the rounded sole-trader totals remain£1,672/£1,152, a£520 change.
+
+The dashboard now defines property and savings as separate measures. The article can continue to analyse them together, but a new measure definition is not a substitute for published execution-bound component outputs. The old first-estimate snapshot remains identified by its original measure IDs until replacement data are verified.
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index 3a1fe68b0..0f24502f1 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -143,11 +143,11 @@ Property income fills that remaining £5,270, with £730 entering the higher ban
| Income tax component, 2027–28 | Before | After |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
-| Salary: £32,430 at 20% | £6,486.00 | £6,486.00 |
-| Property: £5,270 at 22% / 24% | £1,159.40 | £1,264.80 |
-| Property: £730 at 42% / 44% | £306.60 | £321.20 |
-| Savings: £1,500 at 42% / 44% | £630.00 | £660.00 |
-| Total income tax | £8,582.00 | £8,732.00 |
+| Salary: £32,430 at 20% | £6,486 | £6,486 |
+| Property: £5,270 at 22% / 24% | £1,159 | £1,265 |
+| Property: £730 at 42% / 44% | £307 | £321 |
+| Savings: £1,500 at 42% / 44% | £630 | £660 |
+| Total income tax | £8,582 | £8,732 |
The extra tax is £120 on property plus £30 on savings, or **£150 a year**. The calculation shows why the order of income sources matters even when each rate rises by the same two percentage points.
From 5e430755b0058ddb3bbacef6621696fb8d346884 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:04:12 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 11/36] Round sole-trader worked table to whole pounds
---
.../posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 4 ++--
1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index f835fbe03..be8650ec9 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -133,8 +133,8 @@ Consider instead a 35-year-old sole trader in England working 35 hours a week, w
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Taxable trading profit | £19,000 | £17,000 | £2,000 |
| Income tax | £1,286 | £886 | £400 |
-| Class 4 National Insurance | £385.80 | £265.80 | £120 |
-| Combined tax and Class 4 | £1,671.80 | £1,151.80 | £520 |
+| Class 4 National Insurance | £386 | £266 | £120 |
+| Combined tax and Class 4 | £1,672 | £1,152 | £520 |
Both taxable profits exceed the £12,570 lower limit, so the extra £2,000 deduction saves 6% in Class 4 contributions as well as 20% income tax. With benefits unchanged, annual household net income rises by £520.
From 9d88f9490aeb21ea84293d403eca38c6ec8a47ec Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:05:59 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 12/36] Flag pending replacement of regenerated national
results
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 7 +++++++
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json | 13 +++++++++++++
...utumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 2 ++
3 files changed, 22 insertions(+)
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
index ddde6df8a..9e576c402 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -76,3 +76,10 @@ The articles remain drafts. Publication approval is separate from readiness for
Max's latest comments on PR1460 (6473972686) and PR1463 (6473966614) supersede the earlier permission to retain pence in worked tables. Reader-facing tables now use whole pounds throughout; pence are permitted only in prose spelling out a formula. Exact model outputs and hashed source files retain their original precision. The rounded band-crossing components still sum to£8,582/£8,732, and the rounded sole-trader totals remain£1,672/£1,152, a£520 change.
The dashboard now defines property and savings as separate measures. The article can continue to analyse them together, but a new measure definition is not a substitute for published execution-bound component outputs. The old first-estimate snapshot remains identified by its original measure IDs until replacement data are verified.
+
+
+## Live-source check at16:04UTC
+
+Preview manifest revision15 (updated16:01:00Z) has no property_income_rates_up or savings_income_rates_up artifacts yet. The old combined result is withdrawn because the measure was split; its archived snapshot remains in the analysis records. A newer trading artifact71f8a26e4f547021 is provisional and failed reconciliation. It uses the same certifieda6299504 dataset and detailed October forecasts, but its source still excludes the council-tax update. Neither it nor Max's rounded internal component figures has replaced the saved first-estimate data.
+
+The drafts now explicitly flag the older national snapshot as awaiting replacement. These national sections must not be treated as current approved dashboard outputs or published until replacement execution-bound results are reconciled. Household calculations and their input/output records are unchanged.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
index 07f8bdc76..a447c6a34 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
@@ -54,6 +54,19 @@
"people_affected is a percentage of people in households whose absolute net-income percentage change exceeds 0.01%; it is not a headcount.",
"Trading gross receipts are missing; the receipt warns this may overstate cost."
]
+ },
+ "live_source_check": {
+ "checked_at_utc": "2026-10-28T16:04:05Z",
+ "manifest_revision": 15,
+ "manifest_updated_at": "2026-10-28T16:01:00.454209Z",
+ "property_income_rates_up": "not_yet_published",
+ "savings_income_rates_up": "not_yet_published",
+ "unearned_income_rates_up": "withdrawn_due_to_measure_split",
+ "new_trading_artifact": "71f8a26e4f547021",
+ "new_trading_status": "provisional_reconciliation_failed",
+ "new_trading_dataset_matches_pin": true,
+ "replacement_adopted": false,
+ "forecast_note": "New trading batch has October detailed forecasts but still March council tax; it is not the final forecast batch."
}
},
"treasury_costings": {
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index 0f24502f1..b13af94b7 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+> Draft review note: the national figures below use the earlier recorded forecast snapshot and await replacement by the regenerated savings and property results. The household calculations remain as stated.
+
The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026, paragraphs 6.246 and 6.247](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142 "Budget 2026 #page 142,45").
PolicyEngine estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, compared with the Treasury's **£160 million** for that year. These are preliminary static estimates; the Treasury costing includes behavioural responses.
From 11ff36898f4c6751a67847ae3b796b5e998c54ff Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:06:00 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 13/36] Mark national snapshot as awaiting reconciled
replacement
---
.../posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 2 ++
1 file changed, 2 insertions(+)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index be8650ec9..ad08a3002 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+> Draft review note: the national figures below use the earlier recorded forecast snapshot. Replacement outputs have not passed reconciliation. The household examples remain as stated.
+
The [Autumn Budget 2026, paragraph 6.254](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. Our preliminary static estimate puts the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28**. The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a **£225 million receipts cost in 2028–29**. These figures cover different years and use different methods.
An employee paying 20% income tax on their side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction. A sole trader can also save National Insurance, while Universal Credit can offset part of a claimant's tax saving. Receipts, expenses and other household circumstances determine the gain.
From 4e6f0b10a4f8e54d51c6747ae98149a710d6b33d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:20:16 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 14/36] Align budget explainers with PTA forecast and chart
methodology
---
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md | 20 +-
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md | 23 +-
.../curve-validation.json | 30 +
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/forecast.py | 58 ++
.../generate_households.py | 104 ++-
.../generate_trading_extensions.py | 5 +-
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv | 6 +-
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json | 791 +++++++++++++++++-
.../obr_october_2026.json | 89 ++
.../uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json | 66 +-
.../savings-interest-chart.json | 223 ++++-
.../savings-interest-curve.csv | 36 +
.../trading-allowance-chart.json | 232 ++++-
.../trading-receipts-curve.csv | 37 +
.../trading_extensions.json | 48 +-
...budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md | 272 +++++-
16 files changed, 1920 insertions(+), 120 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/curve-validation.json
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/forecast.py
create mode 100644 analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/obr_october_2026.json
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
index e5a2edd2b..6c9177d64 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/README.md
@@ -12,9 +12,9 @@ uv pip install --python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python -r a
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
```
-The generator uses hypothetical adults, without population microdata. It records inputs and outputs and checks the results against independent arithmetic. The reform parameters match dashboard PR290 at the immutable commit recorded in `provenance.json`. Fixed nominal household incomes do not require population forecast uprating.
+The generator uses hypothetical adults, without population microdata. It records inputs and outputs and checks the results against independent arithmetic. The reform parameters match dashboard PR290 at the immutable commit recorded in `provenance.json`. Both the baseline and reform now also use the same October 2026 forecast as Pavel’s PTA post (dashboard commit `640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2`). Supplied income amounts remain fixed in 2027–28; the forecast updates statutory and other model parameters. Fixed nominal incomes do not remove the need to use the agreed forecast.
-The checked outputs include 23 household comparisons and 20 points across the two income curves. To also verify the original dashboard parameter builder, pass `--dashboard-checkout /path/to/checkout` with that checkout at the recorded commit. This check is optional and performs no download.
+The checked outputs include 23 household comparisons and 93 displayed points across the two income curves. The displayed lines use £100 intervals and the exact policy breakpoints. All four series are independently checked against the model at every £2 from £500 to £5,000, including a comparison of the plotted interpolation with the engine results; `curve-validation.json` records counts and maximum errors. The non-integer £1,333⅓ expense-choice breakpoint is also calculated with the model. To also verify the original dashboard parameter builder, pass `--dashboard-checkout /path/to/checkout` with that checkout at the recorded commit. This check is optional and performs no download.
The article chart blocks reproduce `savings-interest-chart.json` and `trading-allowance-chart.json`. Reinsert their contents when regenerating them.
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ The article chart blocks reproduce `savings-interest-chart.json` and `trading-al
Retain the dashboard's adopted `policyengine` 6.11.1 bundle, with UK 2.151.0, core 3.33.3 and national data cut `a6299504`. The certificate, full dataset ID and checksum are recorded in `provenance.json`. The newer candidate in policyengine.py PR725 is awaiting certification/adoption. A future update must change the package and dataset provenance together and regenerate the analysis.
-No population microdata were downloaded locally. At 14:32 UTC the checked GitHub flat files still lacked these Budget-day measures. Vahid subsequently shared a preview with provisional outputs generated at 14:34 UTC, fetched at 14:46 UTC. The drafts now reuse its digest-addressed public aggregate outputs, with the exact manifest, receipts and eight CSVs retained in `population-preview/`. Older candidate charts and stale GitHub flat files must not be relabelled as the announced policy. The preview has no scored combined artifact; its five-measure chart must not be described as a jointly simulated full Budget package.
+No population microdata were downloaded locally. At 14:32 UTC the checked GitHub flat files still lacked these Budget-day measures. Vahid subsequently shared a preview with provisional outputs generated at 14:34 UTC, fetched at 14:46 UTC. The drafts retain its digest-addressed public aggregate outputs as an earlier review snapshot, with the exact manifest, receipts and eight CSVs retained in `population-preview/`. Older candidate charts and stale GitHub flat files must not be relabelled as the announced policy. The preview has no scored combined artifact; its five-measure chart must not be described as a jointly simulated full Budget package.
The provisional national outputs use the exact dataset above with the dashboard's October 2026 OBR forecast wrapper on both baseline and reform. Each provision is scored separately. The source commit is `0d9dccb2`; its reform definitions and October forecast input file match household reference commit `b50787aa` byte for byte. Series not updated by the overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the underlying calibration remains pre-Budget.
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ Treasury forecasts are labelled separately. Compare fiscal-year Treasury receipt
- Verify the final public dashboard link and add links to these explainers within the dashboard. The source checkout's README supplies the current Vercel dashboard URL.
- Have the policy interpretation and calculations reviewed before merging. This branch is a draft and is not publication approval.
-The two articles use the site's native chart blocks and cover assets. No runtime application or country-model code is changed.
+The two articles use the site's native chart blocks and cover assets. Household curves use Pavel's shared numeric line renderer from PR1462; no duplicate chart implementation or country-model code is added.
See `REVIEW_NOTES.md` for the independent draft-readiness check, the comparison with Pavel's posts and the remaining publication work.
@@ -61,4 +61,14 @@ After adding the provisional national sections, snapshot verification and the ar
analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/.venv/bin/python analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
```
-This checks five additional synthetic pairs requested in Max's review, including UC, Class4 and missing-receipts fallbacks. `trading_extensions.json` records complete inputs, raw outputs and arithmetic checks. `dashboard_salary_comparison.json` records the calculator's March-index salary comparison. Household examples use no population data. Shared analysis is kept in the savings/property base PR so the trading article can be reviewed in a separate stacked PR.
+This checks five additional synthetic pairs requested in Max's review, including UC, Class4 and missing-receipts fallbacks, on the same pinned October forecast as the main generator. `trading_extensions.json` records complete inputs, raw outputs and arithmetic checks. `dashboard_salary_comparison.json` records the calculator's March-index salary comparison. Household examples use no population data. Shared analysis is kept in the savings/property base PR so the trading article can be reviewed in a separate stacked PR.
+
+## Alignment with Pavel’s PTA post
+
+The exact forecast input is retained as `obr_october_2026.json`; `forecast.py` verifies its Git blob before use and reconstructs the source’s rounded fuel-duty path. Its complete eight-path parameter mapping was checked for exact equality with the immutable dashboard source’s `with_forecast(None).parameter_changes`. `pe.uk.calculate_household` accepts parameter mappings, so both synthetic generators pass that mapping together with only the measure being analysed. There is no population data load to precede, and no other Budget measure is activated.
+
+Pavel’s comparison uses £100 chart sampling plus the true breakpoints and verifies the results on a denser model grid. These drafts now follow that method: numeric income axes, explicit £ formats, named threshold markers and independent validation at every £2. Reader-facing tables continue to use whole pounds per Max’s latest correction; raw analysis retains precision.
+
+The household forecast pin and the archived national forecast are recorded separately. Applying the new household overlay does not regenerate or validate the historical national snapshot. That snapshot still awaits reconciled replacement outputs with execution-bound component results.
+
+The October-forecast rerun passed all23 household comparisons and all5 trading extension pairs. All policy deltas remain unchanged. Some absolute levels change: the three Scottish cases’ income-tax levels fall by £2.93 on both sides, and the parent’s total benefits/net income rise by about £20.10 on both sides. These do not change the article’s reported tax or household gains. The new93 displayed chart points passed18,008 model-liability comparisons and9,004 interpolation comparisons over2,251 income points per series. The largest interpolation difference is£0.0033, below the£0.01 tolerance.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
index 9e576c402..0e6dde8a3 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/REVIEW_NOTES.md
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ The source preview remains revision 5, with both entries `provisional` and recon
## Related team work
-Pavel's [Pension Tax Allowance draft, #1457](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1457), and [fuel-duty draft, #1459](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1459), informed the calculation-first presentation, explicit assumptions and separation of Treasury costings from model results. They were read as comparative examples, not formally approved by this review. Their shared line-chart work is not required by these posts' existing native bar charts.
+Pavel's [Pension Tax Allowance draft, #1457](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1457), and [fuel-duty draft, #1459](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1459), informed the calculation-first presentation, explicit assumptions and separation of Treasury costings from model results. They were read as comparative examples, not formally approved by this review. The earlier drafts used native bar charts. The current alignment reuses their shared numeric line renderer from PR1462 for the household curves.
## Follow-up to Max's reviews
@@ -83,3 +83,24 @@ The dashboard now defines property and savings as separate measures. The article
Preview manifest revision15 (updated16:01:00Z) has no property_income_rates_up or savings_income_rates_up artifacts yet. The old combined result is withdrawn because the measure was split; its archived snapshot remains in the analysis records. A newer trading artifact71f8a26e4f547021 is provisional and failed reconciliation. It uses the same certifieda6299504 dataset and detailed October forecasts, but its source still excludes the council-tax update. Neither it nor Max's rounded internal component figures has replaced the saved first-estimate data.
The drafts now explicitly flag the older national snapshot as awaiting replacement. These national sections must not be treated as current approved dashboard outputs or published until replacement execution-bound results are reconciled. Household calculations and their input/output records are unchanged.
+
+## Alignment with Pavel’s current PTA draft
+
+The user requested the same methodology and styling as Pavel’s PTA PR1457. The reference was read at head `d282ef870176c81feb87175d02584121bdc50197`, whose chart dependency is PR1462. The main article structure follows rules, household examples and curves, population impacts, assumptions and limitations, then methodology. The shared numeric line renderer is reused rather than copied.
+
+Both synthetic generators now apply the exact October forecast used by that PTA revision (dashboard commit `640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2`) to the baseline and the isolated reform. Previously the synthetic examples held incomes fixed but retained the model’s March parameter forecast. These are distinct choices: the inputs still stay fixed, while projected model parameters now use the common October overlay. The forecast’s original JSON is saved and hash-checked, and the complete eight-path parameter mapping was compared with the original source’s `with_forecast(None)` for exact equality. The archived national results are not regenerated or relabelled by this household change.
+
+Charts now show numeric axes, £ formatting and named allowance thresholds using Pavel’s PR1462 renderer. Display points include every £100 plus exact breakpoints, including the 75%-expense choice at £1,333⅓ of trading receipts. Both tax scenarios are independently checked against arithmetic at every £2, and linear interpolation of the displayed data is compared with the model changes to a one-penny tolerance. Counts and measured maximum errors are saved in `curve-validation.json`. Max’s latest instruction to use whole pounds in all reader-facing tables remains in force.
+
+Manifest revision17, updated16:09:01.451619UTC, publishes separate property (`3537bd303ac226cf`) and savings (`af6aaaee33f616ee`) artifacts, but both are provisional and fail reconciliation, as does the newer trading artifact. No replacement is adopted. Max’s16:10 webinar guidance is to use available dashboard figures and say other figures are “still being checked”; the saved older estimates are not cleared for spoken or published headline results by that message.
+
+The rerun completed at16:18:33UTC with all23 main household comparisons and all5 trading extension pairs passing. Every policy delta is unchanged. The Scottish income-tax levels change by−£2.93 in baseline and reform, while the UC parent’s total benefits and net income change by about+£20.10 in both; these level changes are retained in raw outputs. UC levels and the£180 and£520 article examples are unchanged. The generated curves contain46 savings points and47 trading points. At2,251 income points per series,18,008 liability comparisons and9,004 chart-interpolation comparisons pass; the maximum interpolation error is£0.0033, below the one-penny tolerance. Both generated line specs are ready to insert into the separate articles. Python compilation and diff-whitespace checks also passed. No population outputs or source artifacts were changed.
+
+
+### PTA presentation alignment validation
+
+Both posts now use the shared line-chart renderer from app-v2 PR1462, the same dependency as Pavel's PTA PR1457. The savings/property PR is stacked on `pavel/blog-line-chart`; the trading PR remains stacked on the savings/property branch. The posts share rules, household impacts, population impacts, assumptions and limitations, and methodology sections. All reader tables use whole pounds.
+
+The line renderer, bar renderer, article-chart parser and post metadata checks passed (51 tests); website ESLint and TypeScript checks passed. No CI monitoring was performed. The 23 household cases, five extension pairs and dense curve checks passed on the pinned October forecast. Browser approval declined the public dashboard preview origin, so its rendered policy tab and the final visual layout were not verified in this pass. No alternative access to that blocked origin was attempted.
+
+Max's 16:18:54 UTC webinar update asks authors to introduce each measure for 30–60 seconds: say what it does and who it reaches, leaving costings to the dashboard. Q&A should use displayed dashboard figures and describe missing figures as still being checked. The archived national figures in these draft articles are not webinar-approved estimates.
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/curve-validation.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/curve-validation.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..76f6785dc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/curve-validation.json
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+{
+ "range_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 5000
+ ],
+ "validation_interval_gbp": 2,
+ "points_per_series": 2251,
+ "series": 4,
+ "liability_checks": 18008,
+ "interpolation_checks": 9004,
+ "chart_interval_gbp": 100,
+ "savings_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 1000
+ ],
+ "trading_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 1000,
+ 1333.3333333333333,
+ 3000,
+ 4000
+ ],
+ "chart_rows": {
+ "savings": 46,
+ "trading": 47
+ },
+ "maximum_model_error_gbp": 2.2737367544323206e-13,
+ "maximum_chart_interpolation_error_gbp": 0.0033000000000242835,
+ "tolerance_gbp": 0.01,
+ "method": "All four series checked against pe.uk at every £2; both scenarios compared with independent tax arithmetic; plotted linear interpolation compared with the engine tax changes. The non-integer expense-choice breakpoint is additionally calculated with pe.uk."
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/forecast.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/forecast.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..80be8c660
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/forecast.py
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+"""The exact October forecast used by Pavel's PTA comparison.
+
+The stored JSON is unchanged from dashboard commit 640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2.
+The fuel-duty path follows that commit's forecast_parameter_changes, including
+its ROUND_HALF_UP rule. Synthetic households load no population data, so passing
+these changes to pe.uk before calculation is equivalent to with_forecast.
+"""
+
+from decimal import ROUND_HALF_UP, Decimal
+from functools import lru_cache
+import hashlib
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+COMMIT = "640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2"
+FORECAST_PATH = Path(__file__).with_name("obr_october_2026.json")
+EXPECTED_BLOB = "b504a48fffb93714ff358d869cad712b6daea20e"
+
+
+@lru_cache(maxsize=None)
+def parameter_changes() -> dict:
+ raw = FORECAST_PATH.read_bytes()
+ blob = hashlib.sha1(b"blob " + str(len(raw)).encode() + b"\0" + raw).hexdigest()
+ assert blob == EXPECTED_BLOB, (blob, EXPECTED_BLOB)
+ record = json.loads(raw)
+ changes = {
+ path: dict(entry["values"])
+ for path, entry in record["parameter_changes"].items()
+ }
+ rate = Decimal("0.6059")
+ steps = [("2027-04-01", float(rate))]
+ for year in range(2028, 2033):
+ growth = Decimal(str(changes["gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.rpi"][f"{year - 1}-01-01.{year - 1}-12-31"]))
+ rate = (rate * (1 + growth)).quantize(Decimal("0.0001"), rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP)
+ steps.append((f"{year}-04-01", float(rate)))
+ changes["gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel"] = {
+ f"{day}.{int(day[:4]) + 1}-03-31": rate for day, rate in steps
+ }
+ return changes
+
+
+def with_forecast(reform: dict) -> dict:
+ """Apply the common forecast, with the isolated measure taking precedence."""
+ return {**parameter_changes(), **reform}
+
+
+def provenance() -> dict:
+ return {
+ "dashboard_commit": COMMIT,
+ "source": f"https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/{COMMIT}/src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json",
+ "forecast_file_git_blob": EXPECTED_BLOB,
+ "forecast_module_git_blob": "b2ca186b6fd514f334ced11934d38b256e6d2127",
+ "forecast_file_sha256": hashlib.sha256(FORECAST_PATH.read_bytes()).hexdigest(),
+ "baseline_and_reform": True,
+ "nominal_household_inputs": "Held fixed in 2027; the forecast updates model parameters, not the supplied income amounts.",
+ "remaining_series": "March paths remain for cpih, non-labour income, private rent, mortgage interest, per-capita series, council tax and fuel volumes/prices, as recorded by this forecast vintage.",
+ }
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
index e3b752fcc..e66fa1605 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_households.py
@@ -19,6 +19,9 @@
import warnings
import policyengine as pe
+import numpy as np
+
+from forecast import provenance as forecast_provenance, with_forecast
YEAR = 2027
@@ -65,7 +68,7 @@ def calculate(person: dict, region: str, reform: dict, axes=None) -> dict:
people=[{"age": 35, **person}],
household={"region": region},
year=YEAR,
- reform=reform,
+ reform=with_forecast(reform),
axes=axes,
extra_variables=PERSON_OUTPUTS,
)
@@ -242,34 +245,48 @@ def generate_cases() -> list[dict]:
return output
-def generate_curves() -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
- interest_rows = [{"interest": value} for value in range(500, 5_001, 500)]
+def generate_curves() -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict], dict]:
+ # Model checks use every £2. Displayed curves include all £100 points and
+ # the exact deduction-choice breakpoints, matching the PTA chart method.
+ grid = list(range(500, 5_001, 2))
+ interest_rows = [{"interest": value} for value in range(500, 5_001, 100)]
+ model_errors = []
+ interpolation_errors = []
for label, salary, allowance, old_rate in (
("basic", 30_000, 1_000, 0.22), ("higher", 60_000, 500, 0.42),
):
- axes = [[{"name": "savings_interest_income", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": 10}]]
+ axes = [[{"name": "savings_interest_income", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": len(grid)}]]
baseline = calculate({"employment_income": salary}, "LONDON", {}, axes)
reformed = calculate({"employment_income": salary}, "LONDON", SAVINGS_PROPERTY, axes)
- for index, row in enumerate(interest_rows):
- taxable = max(0, row["interest"] - allowance)
+ changes = []
+ for index, interest in enumerate(grid):
+ taxable = max(0, interest - allowance)
before, after = baseline["savings_income_tax"][index], reformed["savings_income_tax"][index]
close(before, taxable * old_rate, f"{label} savings curve baseline")
close(after, taxable * (old_rate + 0.02), f"{label} savings curve reform")
+ model_errors.extend((abs(before - taxable * old_rate), abs(after - taxable * (old_rate + 0.02))))
+ changes.append(round(after - before, 2))
+ for row in interest_rows:
+ index = grid.index(row["interest"])
+ before, after = baseline["savings_income_tax"][index], reformed["savings_income_tax"][index]
row[f"{label}_baseline_tax"] = before
row[f"{label}_reform_tax"] = after
row[f"{label}_tax_increase"] = round(after - before, 2)
+ interpolated = np.interp(grid, [row["interest"] for row in interest_rows], [row[f"{label}_tax_increase"] for row in interest_rows])
+ interpolation_errors.extend(abs(float(plotted) - actual) for plotted, actual in zip(interpolated, changes))
- trading_rows = [{"receipts": value} for value in range(500, 5_001, 500)]
+ trading_breakpoints = (1_000, 4_000 / 3, 3_000, 4_000)
+ trading_rows = [{"receipts": value} for value in sorted(set(range(500, 5_001, 100)) | set(trading_breakpoints))]
for label, expense_share in (("no_expenses", 0), ("expenses_75_percent", 0.75)):
profit_share = 1 - expense_share
axes = [[
- {"name": "self_employment_gross_receipts", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": 10},
- {"name": "self_employment_income", "min": 500 * profit_share, "max": 5_000 * profit_share, "count": 10},
+ {"name": "self_employment_gross_receipts", "min": 500, "max": 5_000, "count": len(grid)},
+ {"name": "self_employment_income", "min": 500 * profit_share, "max": 5_000 * profit_share, "count": len(grid)},
]]
baseline = calculate({"employment_income": 30_000}, "LONDON", {}, axes)
reformed = calculate({"employment_income": 30_000}, "LONDON", TRADING, axes)
- for index, row in enumerate(trading_rows):
- receipts = row["receipts"]
+ changes = []
+ for index, receipts in enumerate(grid):
expenses = receipts * expense_share
old_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 1_000))
new_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 3_000))
@@ -279,37 +296,77 @@ def generate_curves() -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
close(reduction, (old_taxable - new_taxable) * 0.2, f"{label} trading tax reduction")
close(baseline["ni_class_4"][index], 0, f"{label} baseline Class 4")
close(reformed["ni_class_4"][index], 0, f"{label} reform Class 4")
+ model_errors.extend((abs(baseline["income_tax"][index] - (3_486 + old_taxable * 0.2)), abs(reformed["income_tax"][index] - (3_486 + new_taxable * 0.2))))
+ changes.append(reduction)
+ # This non-integer breakpoint cannot be represented by a regular axis.
+ special_inputs = {"employment_income": 30_000, "self_employment_gross_receipts": 4_000 / 3, "self_employment_income": (4_000 / 3) * profit_share}
+ special_before = calculate(special_inputs, "LONDON", {})
+ special_after = calculate(special_inputs, "LONDON", TRADING)
+ for row in trading_rows:
+ receipts = row["receipts"]
+ expenses = receipts * expense_share
+ old_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 1_000))
+ new_taxable = max(0, receipts - max(expenses, 3_000))
+ if receipts in grid:
+ index = grid.index(receipts)
+ reduction = changes[index]
+ else:
+ reduction = round(special_before["income_tax"] - special_after["income_tax"], 2)
+ close(reduction, (old_taxable - new_taxable) * 0.2, f"{label} plotted trading reduction")
row[f"{label}_actual_expenses"] = expenses
row[f"{label}_baseline_taxable_profit"] = old_taxable
row[f"{label}_reform_taxable_profit"] = new_taxable
row[f"{label}_tax_reduction"] = reduction
- return interest_rows, trading_rows
+ interpolated = np.interp(grid, [row["receipts"] for row in trading_rows], [row[f"{label}_tax_reduction"] for row in trading_rows])
+ interpolation_errors.extend(abs(float(plotted) - actual) for plotted, actual in zip(interpolated, changes))
+ maximum_model_error = max(model_errors)
+ maximum_interpolation_error = max(interpolation_errors)
+ assert maximum_model_error <= 0.01, maximum_model_error
+ assert maximum_interpolation_error <= 0.01, maximum_interpolation_error
+ validation = {
+ "range_gbp": [500, 5_000], "validation_interval_gbp": 2,
+ "points_per_series": len(grid), "series": 4,
+ "liability_checks": len(model_errors), "interpolation_checks": len(interpolation_errors),
+ "chart_interval_gbp": 100,
+ "savings_breakpoints_gbp": [500, 1_000],
+ "trading_breakpoints_gbp": list(trading_breakpoints),
+ "chart_rows": {"savings": len(interest_rows), "trading": len(trading_rows)},
+ "maximum_model_error_gbp": maximum_model_error,
+ "maximum_chart_interpolation_error_gbp": maximum_interpolation_error,
+ "tolerance_gbp": 0.01,
+ "method": "All four series checked against pe.uk at every £2; both scenarios compared with independent tax arithmetic; plotted linear interpolation compared with the engine tax changes. The non-integer expense-choice breakpoint is additionally calculated with pe.uk.",
+ }
+ return interest_rows, trading_rows, validation
def chart_specs(savings, trading) -> dict:
source = "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed."
return {
"savings-interest-chart.json": {
- "type": "bar", "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
+ "type": "line", "title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
- "xKey": "interest", "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
- "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0}, "source": source,
+ "xKey": "interest", "xLabel": "Annual savings interest", "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax",
+ "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": True},
+ "xFormat": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": True}, "source": source,
"series": [
{"key": "basic", "name": "£30,000 salary", "color": "negative"},
{"key": "higher", "name": "£60,000 salary", "color": "secondary"},
],
- "data": [{"interest": f"£{row['interest']:,}", "basic": row["basic_tax_increase"], "higher": row["higher_tax_increase"]} for row in savings],
+ "markers": [{"x": 500, "label": "£60,000 salary: savings allowance"}, {"x": 1_000, "label": "£30,000 salary: savings allowance"}],
+ "data": [{"interest": row["interest"], "basic": row["basic_tax_increase"], "higher": row["higher_tax_increase"]} for row in savings],
},
"trading-allowance-chart.json": {
- "type": "bar", "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
+ "type": "line", "title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
- "xKey": "receipts", "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
- "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0}, "source": source,
+ "xKey": "receipts", "xLabel": "Annual side-business receipts", "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction",
+ "format": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": True},
+ "xFormat": {"prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": True}, "source": source,
"series": [
{"key": "noExpenses", "name": "No business expenses", "color": "primary"},
{"key": "highExpenses", "name": "Expenses equal 75% of receipts", "color": "secondary"},
],
- "data": [{"receipts": f"£{row['receipts']:,}", "noExpenses": row["no_expenses_tax_reduction"], "highExpenses": row["expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction"]} for row in trading],
+ "markers": [{"x": 1_000, "label": "Current allowance"}, {"x": 3_000, "label": "New allowance"}, {"x": 4_000, "label": "75% expenses equal £3,000"}],
+ "data": [{"receipts": row["receipts"], "noExpenses": row["no_expenses_tax_reduction"], "highExpenses": row["expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction"]} for row in trading],
},
}
@@ -334,7 +391,7 @@ def main() -> None:
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=UserWarning, message="Accessing \\.values on a MicroSeries returns a plain numpy array without weights\\.")
comparison = source_comparison(args.dashboard_checkout)
households = generate_cases()
- savings, trading = generate_curves()
+ savings, trading, curve_validation = generate_curves()
payload = {
"metadata": {
"generated_at_utc": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
@@ -343,11 +400,13 @@ def main() -> None:
"scope": "Synthetic single adults age 35; no microdata, no behavioural responses or national estimates. Income and expenses held fixed; tax liabilities, not full household net-income changes.",
"assumptions": "No children, pensions, Gift Aid, student loans, capital gains, other tax reliefs, property losses or carried-forward finance costs. Savings are outside ISAs. Trading receipts and profit are both supplied; no connected-party receipts or partnership income. All example benefit totals are checked to be zero.",
"oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "forecast": forecast_provenance(),
"warning_filters": "Known household divide/invalid RuntimeWarnings and single-household model decile .values warnings only; no population weights are accessed by this generator.",
},
"reforms": {"savings_property": SAVINGS_PROPERTY, "trading": TRADING},
"households": households,
"savings_interest_curve": savings, "trading_receipts_curve": trading,
+ "curve_validation": curve_validation,
}
args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
(args.output_dir / "households.json").write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
@@ -366,7 +425,8 @@ def main() -> None:
write_csv(args.output_dir / "trading-receipts-curve.csv", trading)
for filename, spec in chart_specs(savings, trading).items():
(args.output_dir / filename).write_text(json.dumps(spec, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
- print(f"Verified {len(households)} household comparisons and {len(savings) + len(trading)} curve points; wrote {args.output_dir}")
+ (args.output_dir / "curve-validation.json").write_text(json.dumps(curve_validation, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n")
+ print(f"Verified {len(households)} household comparisons, {len(savings) + len(trading)} plotted curve points and {curve_validation['interpolation_checks']} dense chart checks; wrote {args.output_dir}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
index 75ab4a13c..5792ebf2d 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/generate_trading_extensions.py
@@ -17,6 +17,8 @@
import policyengine as pe
+from forecast import provenance as forecast_provenance, with_forecast
+
YEAR = 2027
ALLOWANCE_PATH = "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance"
@@ -100,7 +102,7 @@ def sole_trader(supply_receipts: bool = True) -> dict:
def calculate(inputs: dict, reform: dict) -> dict:
result = pe.uk.calculate_household(
- **inputs, year=YEAR, reform=reform,
+ **inputs, year=YEAR, reform=with_forecast(reform),
extra_variables=PERSON_OUTPUTS + BENUNIT_OUTPUTS + HOUSEHOLD_OUTPUTS,
)
# Preserve wrapper-provided floating-point values, including float32
@@ -213,6 +215,7 @@ def main() -> None:
"scope": "Five synthetic case pairs; no population data, behavioural responses or national estimates. Annual model calculations; actual UC assessment periods and timing of tax payments can differ.",
"assumptions": "Lone parent age35 with child age4, employment as main job, £18,000 annual wages, side business with zero expenses, London/Central London private rent £12,000/year, UC and Child Benefit take-up true. Sole trader age35, full-time35hours/week, £20,000 receipts and £500 costs, no other income, owns home outright, no UC claim. Both: council tax input zero; no childcare costs, capital, disability, pensions, losses or other income. Omitted inputs otherwise retain pinned model defaults. No UC award, floor amount, work allowance, or earnings intermediate is forced.",
"oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "forecast": forecast_provenance(),
"independent_arithmetic": "Basic-rate income tax20% above Personal Allowance£12,570; known-receipt taxable profit=max(0,receipts-max(expenses,allowance)); Class4 NI6% above£12,570; active UC award falls55% of extra UC net earnings above its unchanged work allowance. Missing-receipt outputs separately test the pinned fallback, not the legal receipt-based calculation.",
},
"cases": outputs,
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
index 86194df52..1ce14b9b1 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.csv
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ saver_higher,savings_property,LONDON,2027,60000,2000,0,0,0,0,12062.0,630.0,500.0
saver_additional,savings_property,LONDON,2027,150000,2000,0,0,0,0,54643.0,940.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,54683.0,980.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,40.0,40.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
saver_crosses_basic_higher,savings_property,LONDON,2027,49270,2000,0,0,0,0,7870.0,530.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2936.0,0.0,0.0,7900.0,560.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2936.0,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
saver_starting_rate,savings_property,LONDON,2027,15000,4000,0,0,0,0,580.6,94.6,1000.0,2570.0,430.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,194.4,0.0,0.0,589.2,103.2,1000.0,2570.0,430.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,194.4,0.0,0.0,8.6,8.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-saver_scotland_higher,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,2000,0,0,0,0,13807.87,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,13837.87,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+saver_scotland_higher,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,2000,0,0,0,0,13804.94,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,13834.94,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,30.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
landlord_basic_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,0,10000,4000,0,0,4806.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,4926.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
landlord_higher_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,60000,0,10000,4000,0,0,14752.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,14872.0,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4400.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
landlord_additional_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,150000,0,10000,4000,0,0,57523.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4700.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,57643.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4900.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,5010.6,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@ landlord_crosses_basic_higher_mortgage,savings_property,LONDON,2027,45000,0,1000
landlord_mortgage_free_london,savings_property,LONDON,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
landlord_mortgage_free_wales,savings_property,WALES,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
landlord_mortgage_free_northern_ireland,savings_property,NORTHERN_IRELAND,2027,30000,0,10000,0,0,0,5686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,5886.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2400.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,200.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-landlord_scotland_finance_0,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,0,0,0,17377.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,17377.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-landlord_scotland_finance_4000,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,4000,0,0,16497.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,16417.87,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,-80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_scotland_finance_0,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,0,0,0,17374.94,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,17374.94,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,0.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+landlord_scotland_finance_4000,savings_property,SCOTLAND,2027,60000,0,10000,4000,0,0,16494.94,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,880.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,16414.94,0.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4200.0,960.0,10000.0,0.0,0.0,3210.6,0.0,0.0,-80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
property_then_savings_order,savings_property,LONDON,2027,45000,2000,6000,0,0,0,8582.0,630.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,1466.0,0.0,6000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,8732.0,660.0,500.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,0.0,1586.0,0.0,6000.0,0.0,0.0,2594.4,0.0,0.0,150.0,30.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,120.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
trader_salary_30000_expenses_500,trading,LONDON,2027,30000,0,0,0,4000,3500,4086.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,3000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2500.0,1000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,-400.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,-2000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
trader_salary_30000_expenses_2500,trading,LONDON,2027,30000,0,0,0,4000,1500,3786.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1500.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,3686.0,0.0,1000.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,1000.0,1394.4,0.0,0.0,-100.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,500.0,-500.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
index 182007c95..c40b4fca3 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/households.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"metadata": {
- "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T14:37:16.549617+00:00",
+ "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T16:18:33.153156+00:00",
"tax_year": "2027–28",
"model_year": 2027,
"versions": {
@@ -32,12 +32,22 @@
"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional": 0.49,
"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance": 3000
},
- "dashboard_builder_verified": true,
- "comparison": "Relevant parameter declarations and savings/property builder match the independent flat reform dictionaries; no combined-package modifiers run."
+ "dashboard_builder_verified": false,
+ "comparison": "Independent reform dictionaries and baseline parameters verified. Optional dashboard-builder comparison not requested; immutable source reference recorded above."
},
"scope": "Synthetic single adults age 35; no microdata, no behavioural responses or national estimates. Income and expenses held fixed; tax liabilities, not full household net-income changes.",
"assumptions": "No children, pensions, Gift Aid, student loans, capital gains, other tax reliefs, property losses or carried-forward finance costs. Savings are outside ISAs. Trading receipts and profit are both supplied; no connected-party receipts or partnership income. All example benefit totals are checked to be zero.",
"oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "forecast": {
+ "dashboard_commit": "640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2",
+ "source": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2/src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json",
+ "forecast_file_git_blob": "b504a48fffb93714ff358d869cad712b6daea20e",
+ "forecast_module_git_blob": "b2ca186b6fd514f334ced11934d38b256e6d2127",
+ "forecast_file_sha256": "dc039d30660d17f30a45e49538dbd22953e02bd4f6b63eda2eaebcf8252baf54",
+ "baseline_and_reform": true,
+ "nominal_household_inputs": "Held fixed in 2027; the forecast updates model parameters, not the supplied income amounts.",
+ "remaining_series": "March paths remain for cpih, non-labour income, private rent, mortgage interest, per-capita series, council tax and fuel volumes/prices, as recorded by this forecast vintage."
+ },
"warning_filters": "Known household divide/invalid RuntimeWarnings and single-household model decile .values warnings only; no population weights are accessed by this generator."
},
"reforms": {
@@ -519,7 +529,7 @@
},
"detail": null,
"baseline": {
- "income_tax": 13807.87,
+ "income_tax": 13804.94,
"savings_income_tax": 630.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -536,7 +546,7 @@
"household_benefits": 0.0
},
"reform": {
- "income_tax": 13837.87,
+ "income_tax": 13834.94,
"savings_income_tax": 660.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -1124,7 +1134,7 @@
},
"detail": "Scottish property rates do not change; the UK-wide finance-cost credit rate does.",
"baseline": {
- "income_tax": 17377.87,
+ "income_tax": 17374.94,
"savings_income_tax": 0.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -1141,7 +1151,7 @@
"household_benefits": 0.0
},
"reform": {
- "income_tax": 17377.87,
+ "income_tax": 17374.94,
"savings_income_tax": 0.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -1193,7 +1203,7 @@
},
"detail": "Scottish property rates do not change; the UK-wide finance-cost credit rate does.",
"baseline": {
- "income_tax": 16497.87,
+ "income_tax": 16494.94,
"savings_income_tax": 0.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -1210,7 +1220,7 @@
"household_benefits": 0.0
},
"reform": {
- "income_tax": 16417.87,
+ "income_tax": 16414.94,
"savings_income_tax": 0.0,
"savings_allowance": 500.0,
"savings_starter_rate_income": 0.0,
@@ -1818,6 +1828,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 0.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 0.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 600,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 0.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 42.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 44.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 2.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 700,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 0.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 84.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 88.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 4.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 800,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 0.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 126.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 132.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 6.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 900,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 0.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 0.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 168.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 176.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 8.0
+ },
{
"interest": 1000,
"basic_baseline_tax": 0.0,
@@ -1827,6 +1873,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 220.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 10.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 1100,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 22.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 24.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 2.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 252.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 264.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 12.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1200,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 44.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 48.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 4.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 294.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 308.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 14.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1300,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 66.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 72.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 6.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 336.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 352.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 16.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1400,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 88.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 96.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 8.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 378.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 396.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 18.0
+ },
{
"interest": 1500,
"basic_baseline_tax": 110.0,
@@ -1836,6 +1918,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 440.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 20.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 1600,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 132.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 144.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 12.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 462.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 484.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 22.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1700,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 154.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 168.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 14.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 504.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 528.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 24.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1800,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 176.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 192.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 16.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 546.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 572.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 26.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1900,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 198.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 216.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 18.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 588.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 616.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 28.0
+ },
{
"interest": 2000,
"basic_baseline_tax": 220.0,
@@ -1845,6 +1963,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 660.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 30.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 2100,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 242.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 264.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 22.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 672.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 704.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 32.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2200,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 264.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 288.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 24.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 714.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 748.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 34.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2300,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 286.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 312.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 26.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 756.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 792.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 36.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2400,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 308.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 336.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 28.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 798.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 836.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 38.0
+ },
{
"interest": 2500,
"basic_baseline_tax": 330.0,
@@ -1854,6 +2008,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 880.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 40.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 2600,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 352.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 384.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 32.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 882.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 924.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 42.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2700,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 374.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 408.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 34.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 924.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 968.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 44.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2800,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 396.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 432.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 36.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 966.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1012.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 46.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2900,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 418.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 456.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 38.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1008.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1056.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 48.0
+ },
{
"interest": 3000,
"basic_baseline_tax": 440.0,
@@ -1863,6 +2053,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 1100.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 50.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 3100,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 462.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 504.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 42.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1092.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1144.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 52.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3200,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 484.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 528.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 44.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1134.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1188.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 54.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3300,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 506.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 552.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 46.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1176.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1232.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 56.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3400,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 528.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 576.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 48.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1218.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1276.0,
+ "higher_tax_increase": 58.0
+ },
{
"interest": 3500,
"basic_baseline_tax": 550.0,
@@ -1872,6 +2098,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 1320.0,
"higher_tax_increase": 60.0
},
+ {
+ "interest": 3600,
+ "basic_baseline_tax": 572.0,
+ "basic_reform_tax": 624.0,
+ "basic_tax_increase": 52.0,
+ "higher_baseline_tax": 1302.0,
+ "higher_reform_tax": 1364.0,
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@@ -1881,6 +2143,42 @@
"higher_reform_tax": 1540.0,
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@@ -1890,6 +2188,42 @@
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@@ -1912,6 +2246,50 @@
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@@ -1923,6 +2301,61 @@
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@@ -1934,6 +2367,50 @@
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@@ -1945,6 +2422,50 @@
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@@ -1956,6 +2477,50 @@
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@@ -1967,6 +2532,50 @@
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@@ -1978,6 +2587,50 @@
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@@ -1989,6 +2642,50 @@
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@@ -2000,6 +2697,50 @@
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+ "no_expenses_reform_taxable_profit": 1800,
+ "no_expenses_tax_reduction": 400.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_actual_expenses": 3600.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_baseline_taxable_profit": 1200.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_reform_taxable_profit": 1200.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4900,
+ "no_expenses_actual_expenses": 0,
+ "no_expenses_baseline_taxable_profit": 3900,
+ "no_expenses_reform_taxable_profit": 1900,
+ "no_expenses_tax_reduction": 400.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_actual_expenses": 3675.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_baseline_taxable_profit": 1225.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_reform_taxable_profit": 1225.0,
+ "expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction": 0.0
+ },
{
"receipts": 5000,
"no_expenses_actual_expenses": 0,
@@ -2011,5 +2752,35 @@
"expenses_75_percent_reform_taxable_profit": 1250.0,
"expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction": 0.0
}
- ]
+ ],
+ "curve_validation": {
+ "range_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 5000
+ ],
+ "validation_interval_gbp": 2,
+ "points_per_series": 2251,
+ "series": 4,
+ "liability_checks": 18008,
+ "interpolation_checks": 9004,
+ "chart_interval_gbp": 100,
+ "savings_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 1000
+ ],
+ "trading_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 1000,
+ 1333.3333333333333,
+ 3000,
+ 4000
+ ],
+ "chart_rows": {
+ "savings": 46,
+ "trading": 47
+ },
+ "maximum_model_error_gbp": 2.2737367544323206e-13,
+ "maximum_chart_interpolation_error_gbp": 0.0033000000000242835,
+ "tolerance_gbp": 0.01,
+ "method": "All four series checked against pe.uk at every £2; both scenarios compared with independent tax arithmetic; plotted linear interpolation compared with the engine tax changes. The non-integer expense-choice breakpoint is additionally calculated with pe.uk."
+ }
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/obr_october_2026.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/obr_october_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b504a48ff
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/obr_october_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+{
+ "vintage": "OBR EFO October 2026",
+ "source": "OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, Annex A",
+ "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook",
+ "replaces": "OBR EFO March 2026, as shipped in policyengine-uk 2.151.0 (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr)",
+ "applies_to": "Every simulation the dashboard builds, baseline and reform alike (uk_budget_data.forecast.with_forecast). Applied before data load, so the dataset's projected years follow it.",
+ "notes": [
+ "Growth rates are Table A.1 (Economy forecast, EFO page 180), percentage change on a year earlier, calendar years 2026 to 2031, keyed YYYY-01-01.YYYY-12-31. 2025 is outturn in Table A.1 and is left as shipped; after 2031 the engine's long-run path is kept.",
+ "The engine's March values equal the March Table A.1 rows: the October value minus the Table A.2 change since March, to within 0.1pp rounding (tests/test_forecast_basis.py).",
+ "Statutory uprating inputs keep their published outturns (September 2026 CPI 3.5%, May-July 2026 earnings 3.9%). Their forecast years are calendar-year growth plus the engine's forecast_gap, which still holds the March 2026 quarterly gaps except where noted below.",
+ "September 2027 CPI: Table A.3 (EFO page 181) gives the 2027-28 triple-lock guarantee as 3.4%, the highest of Q2 2027 earnings growth, Q3 2027 CPI and 2.5%. Q2 earnings cannot reach 3.4% (calendar-year 2027 earnings growth is 3.0%), so Q3 2027 CPI is 3.4%, equal to calendar-year 2027 CPI: the gap is 0. The March gap (+0.07pp) would have given 3.5%.",
+ "Every later Table A.3 triple-lock figure (2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6 for 2028-29 to 2031-32) is reproduced by these series and the remaining March gaps (tests/test_forecast_basis.py).",
+ "Fuel duty (gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel), added in code (uk_budget_data.forecast.fuel_duty_rpi_steps): policyengine-uk stores current law's RPI steps as values from its March RPI. Current law here is the OBR's 60.59p from April 2027 (EFO paragraph 3.19: on 1 July 2027 the 5p cut is reversed with an RPI uprating, 52.95p to 60.59p; the Budget defers that same planned RPI increase from April), then each 1 April the previous calendar year's Table A.1 RPI. The baseline and the fuel duty measure both read this one path.",
+ "Not updated (the OBR detailed forecast tables could not be retrieved): cpih, non_labour_income, rent, mortgage_interest, per_capita, council_tax, fuel volume and price series. They keep the March 2026 path. consumer_price_index_ahc and social_rent are derived from Table A.1 CPI (see their sources)."
+ ],
+ "parameter_changes": {
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.consumer_price_index": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, Inflation: CPI",
+ "values": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.031,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.034,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.021,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.021,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.02,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.02
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.rpi": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, Inflation: RPI",
+ "values": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.036,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.043,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.03,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.03,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.023,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.022
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.average_earnings": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, Labour market: Average weekly earnings (wages and salaries divided by employees)",
+ "values": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.037,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.03,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.022,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.023,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.025,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.026
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.house_prices": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, Household sector: House prices",
+ "values": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.021,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.024,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.028,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.028,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.027,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.027
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.consumer_price_index_ahc": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, CPI, as a change: PolicyEngine approximation (not an OBR series), policyengine-uk's March 2026 CPI after housing costs moved by the change in Table A.1 CPI for the same year, as the Living standards tab's October series (living_standards/forecast.py)",
+ "values": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.0297,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.0328,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.0204,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.0204,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.0192,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.0192
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.social_rent": {
+ "source": "Table A.1, CPI: England social rent policy cap, the previous calendar year's CPI + 1% (2026 is set by September 2025 CPI outturn and kept), as the Living standards tab's October series",
+ "values": {
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.041,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.044,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.031,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.031,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.03
+ }
+ },
+ "gov.economic_assumptions.statutory_uprating_inputs.forecast_gap.cpi_september": {
+ "source": "Table A.3, 'Triple-lock' guarantee 2027-28: 3.4 (Q3 2027 CPI) minus Table A.1 calendar-year 2027 CPI 3.4",
+ "values": {
+ "2027-09-01.2028-08-31": 0.0
+ }
+ }
+ }
+}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
index a447c6a34..b63c6a87e 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/provenance.json
@@ -56,17 +56,19 @@
]
},
"live_source_check": {
- "checked_at_utc": "2026-10-28T16:04:05Z",
- "manifest_revision": 15,
- "manifest_updated_at": "2026-10-28T16:01:00.454209Z",
- "property_income_rates_up": "not_yet_published",
- "savings_income_rates_up": "not_yet_published",
+ "manifest_revision": 17,
+ "manifest_updated_at": "2026-10-28T16:09:01.451619Z",
+ "property_income_rates_up": "provisional_reconciliation_failed",
+ "savings_income_rates_up": "provisional_reconciliation_failed",
"unearned_income_rates_up": "withdrawn_due_to_measure_split",
"new_trading_artifact": "71f8a26e4f547021",
"new_trading_status": "provisional_reconciliation_failed",
"new_trading_dataset_matches_pin": true,
"replacement_adopted": false,
- "forecast_note": "New trading batch has October detailed forecasts but still March council tax; it is not the final forecast batch."
+ "forecast_note": "Replacement artifacts remain unapproved. The household forecast pin is independent of these national artifacts.",
+ "property_artifact": "3537bd303ac226cf",
+ "savings_artifact": "af6aaaee33f616ee",
+ "source_check_note": "Manifest17 status reported by the parent task during the PTA alignment; manifest_updated_at is the publisher timestamp, not a local fetch timestamp."
}
},
"treasury_costings": {
@@ -114,5 +116,57 @@
"raw_population_accessed": false,
"additional_internal_population_numbers_adopted": false,
"final_regeneration_note": "Detailed October forecast tables and council tax are expected; retain the recorded first-estimate snapshot until replacement outputs bind the exact dataset and forecast."
+ },
+ "household_forecast": {
+ "dashboard_commit": "640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2",
+ "forecast_file_git_blob": "b504a48fffb93714ff358d869cad712b6daea20e",
+ "forecast_module_git_blob": "b2ca186b6fd514f334ced11934d38b256e6d2127",
+ "both_baseline_and_reform": true,
+ "fixed_nominal_inputs": true,
+ "reference_pr": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1457",
+ "reference_pr_head": "d282ef870176c81feb87175d02584121bdc50197",
+ "equivalence": "Exact eight-path equality with source with_forecast(None).parameter_changes was checked; synthetic households have no population data load.",
+ "national_outputs_regenerated": false,
+ "national_forecast_still_recorded_separately": true,
+ "forecast_file_sha256": "dc039d30660d17f30a45e49538dbd22953e02bd4f6b63eda2eaebcf8252baf54"
+ },
+ "chart_methodology": {
+ "renderer_dependency": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1462",
+ "type": "numeric line",
+ "chart_interval_gbp": 100,
+ "validation_interval_gbp": 2,
+ "validation_record": "curve-validation.json",
+ "tolerance_gbp": 0.01,
+ "breakpoints": "All allowance and expense-choice breakpoints within the plotted £500–£5,000 range.",
+ "validation_results": {
+ "range_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 5000
+ ],
+ "validation_interval_gbp": 2,
+ "points_per_series": 2251,
+ "series": 4,
+ "liability_checks": 18008,
+ "interpolation_checks": 9004,
+ "chart_interval_gbp": 100,
+ "savings_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 500,
+ 1000
+ ],
+ "trading_breakpoints_gbp": [
+ 1000,
+ 1333.3333333333333,
+ 3000,
+ 4000
+ ],
+ "chart_rows": {
+ "savings": 46,
+ "trading": 47
+ },
+ "maximum_model_error_gbp": 2.2737367544323206e-13,
+ "maximum_chart_interpolation_error_gbp": 0.0033000000000242835,
+ "tolerance_gbp": 0.01,
+ "method": "All four series checked against pe.uk at every £2; both scenarios compared with independent tax arithmetic; plotted linear interpolation compared with the engine tax changes. The non-integer expense-choice breakpoint is additionally calculated with pe.uk."
+ }
}
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
index 516fc1488..b471abc31 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-chart.json
@@ -1,12 +1,19 @@
{
- "type": "bar",
+ "type": "line",
"title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
"xKey": "interest",
- "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
+ "xLabel": "Annual savings interest",
+ "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax",
"format": {
"prefix": "£",
- "decimals": 0
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
+ },
+ "xFormat": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
},
"source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
"series": [
@@ -21,54 +28,244 @@
"color": "secondary"
}
],
+ "markers": [
+ {
+ "x": 500,
+ "label": "£60,000 salary: savings allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 1000,
+ "label": "£30,000 salary: savings allowance"
+ }
+ ],
"data": [
{
- "interest": "£500",
+ "interest": 500,
"basic": 0.0,
"higher": 0.0
},
{
- "interest": "£1,000",
+ "interest": 600,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 2.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 700,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 4.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 800,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 6.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 900,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 8.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1000,
"basic": 0.0,
"higher": 10.0
},
{
- "interest": "£1,500",
+ "interest": 1100,
+ "basic": 2.0,
+ "higher": 12.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1200,
+ "basic": 4.0,
+ "higher": 14.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1300,
+ "basic": 6.0,
+ "higher": 16.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1400,
+ "basic": 8.0,
+ "higher": 18.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1500,
"basic": 10.0,
"higher": 20.0
},
{
- "interest": "£2,000",
+ "interest": 1600,
+ "basic": 12.0,
+ "higher": 22.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1700,
+ "basic": 14.0,
+ "higher": 24.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1800,
+ "basic": 16.0,
+ "higher": 26.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1900,
+ "basic": 18.0,
+ "higher": 28.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2000,
"basic": 20.0,
"higher": 30.0
},
{
- "interest": "£2,500",
+ "interest": 2100,
+ "basic": 22.0,
+ "higher": 32.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2200,
+ "basic": 24.0,
+ "higher": 34.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2300,
+ "basic": 26.0,
+ "higher": 36.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2400,
+ "basic": 28.0,
+ "higher": 38.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2500,
"basic": 30.0,
"higher": 40.0
},
{
- "interest": "£3,000",
+ "interest": 2600,
+ "basic": 32.0,
+ "higher": 42.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2700,
+ "basic": 34.0,
+ "higher": 44.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2800,
+ "basic": 36.0,
+ "higher": 46.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2900,
+ "basic": 38.0,
+ "higher": 48.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3000,
"basic": 40.0,
"higher": 50.0
},
{
- "interest": "£3,500",
+ "interest": 3100,
+ "basic": 42.0,
+ "higher": 52.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3200,
+ "basic": 44.0,
+ "higher": 54.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3300,
+ "basic": 46.0,
+ "higher": 56.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3400,
+ "basic": 48.0,
+ "higher": 58.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3500,
"basic": 50.0,
"higher": 60.0
},
{
- "interest": "£4,000",
+ "interest": 3600,
+ "basic": 52.0,
+ "higher": 62.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3700,
+ "basic": 54.0,
+ "higher": 64.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3800,
+ "basic": 56.0,
+ "higher": 66.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3900,
+ "basic": 58.0,
+ "higher": 68.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4000,
"basic": 60.0,
"higher": 70.0
},
{
- "interest": "£4,500",
+ "interest": 4100,
+ "basic": 62.0,
+ "higher": 72.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4200,
+ "basic": 64.0,
+ "higher": 74.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4300,
+ "basic": 66.0,
+ "higher": 76.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4400,
+ "basic": 68.0,
+ "higher": 78.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4500,
"basic": 70.0,
"higher": 80.0
},
{
- "interest": "£5,000",
+ "interest": 4600,
+ "basic": 72.0,
+ "higher": 82.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4700,
+ "basic": 74.0,
+ "higher": 84.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4800,
+ "basic": 76.0,
+ "higher": 86.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4900,
+ "basic": 78.0,
+ "higher": 88.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 5000,
"basic": 80.0,
"higher": 90.0
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
index beb9d0a60..ff48dc299 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/savings-interest-curve.csv
@@ -1,11 +1,47 @@
interest,basic_baseline_tax,basic_reform_tax,basic_tax_increase,higher_baseline_tax,higher_reform_tax,higher_tax_increase
500,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+600,0.0,0.0,0.0,42.0,44.0,2.0
+700,0.0,0.0,0.0,84.0,88.0,4.0
+800,0.0,0.0,0.0,126.0,132.0,6.0
+900,0.0,0.0,0.0,168.0,176.0,8.0
1000,0.0,0.0,0.0,210.0,220.0,10.0
+1100,22.0,24.0,2.0,252.0,264.0,12.0
+1200,44.0,48.0,4.0,294.0,308.0,14.0
+1300,66.0,72.0,6.0,336.0,352.0,16.0
+1400,88.0,96.0,8.0,378.0,396.0,18.0
1500,110.0,120.0,10.0,420.0,440.0,20.0
+1600,132.0,144.0,12.0,462.0,484.0,22.0
+1700,154.0,168.0,14.0,504.0,528.0,24.0
+1800,176.0,192.0,16.0,546.0,572.0,26.0
+1900,198.0,216.0,18.0,588.0,616.0,28.0
2000,220.0,240.0,20.0,630.0,660.0,30.0
+2100,242.0,264.0,22.0,672.0,704.0,32.0
+2200,264.0,288.0,24.0,714.0,748.0,34.0
+2300,286.0,312.0,26.0,756.0,792.0,36.0
+2400,308.0,336.0,28.0,798.0,836.0,38.0
2500,330.0,360.0,30.0,840.0,880.0,40.0
+2600,352.0,384.0,32.0,882.0,924.0,42.0
+2700,374.0,408.0,34.0,924.0,968.0,44.0
+2800,396.0,432.0,36.0,966.0,1012.0,46.0
+2900,418.0,456.0,38.0,1008.0,1056.0,48.0
3000,440.0,480.0,40.0,1050.0,1100.0,50.0
+3100,462.0,504.0,42.0,1092.0,1144.0,52.0
+3200,484.0,528.0,44.0,1134.0,1188.0,54.0
+3300,506.0,552.0,46.0,1176.0,1232.0,56.0
+3400,528.0,576.0,48.0,1218.0,1276.0,58.0
3500,550.0,600.0,50.0,1260.0,1320.0,60.0
+3600,572.0,624.0,52.0,1302.0,1364.0,62.0
+3700,594.0,648.0,54.0,1344.0,1408.0,64.0
+3800,616.0,672.0,56.0,1386.0,1452.0,66.0
+3900,638.0,696.0,58.0,1428.0,1496.0,68.0
4000,660.0,720.0,60.0,1470.0,1540.0,70.0
+4100,682.0,744.0,62.0,1512.0,1584.0,72.0
+4200,704.0,768.0,64.0,1554.0,1628.0,74.0
+4300,726.0,792.0,66.0,1596.0,1672.0,76.0
+4400,748.0,816.0,68.0,1638.0,1716.0,78.0
4500,770.0,840.0,70.0,1680.0,1760.0,80.0
+4600,792.0,864.0,72.0,1722.0,1804.0,82.0
+4700,814.0,888.0,74.0,1764.0,1848.0,84.0
+4800,836.0,912.0,76.0,1806.0,1892.0,86.0
+4900,858.0,936.0,78.0,1848.0,1936.0,88.0
5000,880.0,960.0,80.0,1890.0,1980.0,90.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
index 3e4ec0a6d..b98422ec4 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-allowance-chart.json
@@ -1,12 +1,19 @@
{
- "type": "bar",
+ "type": "line",
"title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
"xKey": "receipts",
- "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "xLabel": "Annual side-business receipts",
+ "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction",
"format": {
"prefix": "£",
- "decimals": 0
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
+ },
+ "xFormat": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
},
"source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
"series": [
@@ -21,54 +28,253 @@
"color": "secondary"
}
],
+ "markers": [
+ {
+ "x": 1000,
+ "label": "Current allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 3000,
+ "label": "New allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 4000,
+ "label": "75% expenses equal £3,000"
+ }
+ ],
"data": [
{
- "receipts": "£500",
+ "receipts": 500,
"noExpenses": 0.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£1,000",
+ "receipts": 600,
"noExpenses": 0.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£1,500",
+ "receipts": 700,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 800,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 900,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1000,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1100,
+ "noExpenses": 20.0,
+ "highExpenses": 20.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1200,
+ "noExpenses": 40.0,
+ "highExpenses": 40.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1300,
+ "noExpenses": 60.0,
+ "highExpenses": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1333.3333333333333,
+ "noExpenses": 66.67,
+ "highExpenses": 66.67
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1400,
+ "noExpenses": 80.0,
+ "highExpenses": 70.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1500,
"noExpenses": 100.0,
"highExpenses": 75.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£2,000",
+ "receipts": 1600,
+ "noExpenses": 120.0,
+ "highExpenses": 80.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1700,
+ "noExpenses": 140.0,
+ "highExpenses": 85.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1800,
+ "noExpenses": 160.0,
+ "highExpenses": 90.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1900,
+ "noExpenses": 180.0,
+ "highExpenses": 95.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2000,
"noExpenses": 200.0,
"highExpenses": 100.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£2,500",
+ "receipts": 2100,
+ "noExpenses": 220.0,
+ "highExpenses": 105.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2200,
+ "noExpenses": 240.0,
+ "highExpenses": 110.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2300,
+ "noExpenses": 260.0,
+ "highExpenses": 115.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2400,
+ "noExpenses": 280.0,
+ "highExpenses": 120.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2500,
"noExpenses": 300.0,
"highExpenses": 125.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£3,000",
+ "receipts": 2600,
+ "noExpenses": 320.0,
+ "highExpenses": 130.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2700,
+ "noExpenses": 340.0,
+ "highExpenses": 135.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2800,
+ "noExpenses": 360.0,
+ "highExpenses": 140.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2900,
+ "noExpenses": 380.0,
+ "highExpenses": 145.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3000,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 150.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£3,500",
+ "receipts": 3100,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 135.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3200,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 120.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3300,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 105.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3400,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 90.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3500,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 75.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£4,000",
+ "receipts": 3600,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3700,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 45.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3800,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 30.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3900,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 15.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4000,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4100,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4200,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4300,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4400,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4500,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4600,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4700,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4800,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£4,500",
+ "receipts": 4900,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£5,000",
+ "receipts": 5000,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
}
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
index 32b0d7dee..be6044f8c 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading-receipts-curve.csv
@@ -1,11 +1,48 @@
receipts,no_expenses_actual_expenses,no_expenses_baseline_taxable_profit,no_expenses_reform_taxable_profit,no_expenses_tax_reduction,expenses_75_percent_actual_expenses,expenses_75_percent_baseline_taxable_profit,expenses_75_percent_reform_taxable_profit,expenses_75_percent_tax_reduction
500,0,0,0,0.0,375.0,0,0,0.0
+600,0,0,0,0.0,450.0,0,0,0.0
+700,0,0,0,0.0,525.0,0,0,0.0
+800,0,0,0,0.0,600.0,0,0,0.0
+900,0,0,0,0.0,675.0,0,0,0.0
1000,0,0,0,0.0,750.0,0,0,0.0
+1100,0,100,0,20.0,825.0,100,0,20.0
+1200,0,200,0,40.0,900.0,200,0,40.0
+1300,0,300,0,60.0,975.0,300,0,60.0
+1333.3333333333333,0.0,333.33333333333326,0,66.67,1000.0,333.33333333333326,0,66.67
+1400,0,400,0,80.0,1050.0,350.0,0,70.0
1500,0,500,0,100.0,1125.0,375.0,0,75.0
+1600,0,600,0,120.0,1200.0,400.0,0,80.0
+1700,0,700,0,140.0,1275.0,425.0,0,85.0
+1800,0,800,0,160.0,1350.0,450.0,0,90.0
+1900,0,900,0,180.0,1425.0,475.0,0,95.0
2000,0,1000,0,200.0,1500.0,500.0,0,100.0
+2100,0,1100,0,220.0,1575.0,525.0,0,105.0
+2200,0,1200,0,240.0,1650.0,550.0,0,110.0
+2300,0,1300,0,260.0,1725.0,575.0,0,115.0
+2400,0,1400,0,280.0,1800.0,600.0,0,120.0
2500,0,1500,0,300.0,1875.0,625.0,0,125.0
+2600,0,1600,0,320.0,1950.0,650.0,0,130.0
+2700,0,1700,0,340.0,2025.0,675.0,0,135.0
+2800,0,1800,0,360.0,2100.0,700.0,0,140.0
+2900,0,1900,0,380.0,2175.0,725.0,0,145.0
3000,0,2000,0,400.0,2250.0,750.0,0,150.0
+3100,0,2100,100,400.0,2325.0,775.0,100,135.0
+3200,0,2200,200,400.0,2400.0,800.0,200,120.0
+3300,0,2300,300,400.0,2475.0,825.0,300,105.0
+3400,0,2400,400,400.0,2550.0,850.0,400,90.0
3500,0,2500,500,400.0,2625.0,875.0,500,75.0
+3600,0,2600,600,400.0,2700.0,900.0,600,60.0
+3700,0,2700,700,400.0,2775.0,925.0,700,45.0
+3800,0,2800,800,400.0,2850.0,950.0,800,30.0
+3900,0,2900,900,400.0,2925.0,975.0,900,15.0
4000,0,3000,1000,400.0,3000.0,1000.0,1000.0,0.0
+4100,0,3100,1100,400.0,3075.0,1025.0,1025.0,0.0
+4200,0,3200,1200,400.0,3150.0,1050.0,1050.0,0.0
+4300,0,3300,1300,400.0,3225.0,1075.0,1075.0,0.0
+4400,0,3400,1400,400.0,3300.0,1100.0,1100.0,0.0
4500,0,3500,1500,400.0,3375.0,1125.0,1125.0,0.0
+4600,0,3600,1600,400.0,3450.0,1150.0,1150.0,0.0
+4700,0,3700,1700,400.0,3525.0,1175.0,1175.0,0.0
+4800,0,3800,1800,400.0,3600.0,1200.0,1200.0,0.0
+4900,0,3900,1900,400.0,3675.0,1225.0,1225.0,0.0
5000,0,4000,2000,400.0,3750.0,1250.0,1250.0,0.0
diff --git a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
index 7a8ae6f2f..370dd58d9 100644
--- a/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
+++ b/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax/trading_extensions.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"metadata": {
- "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T15:19:07.459647+00:00",
+ "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-28T16:15:44.057920+00:00",
"model_year": 2027,
"tax_year": "2027–28",
"versions": {
@@ -23,6 +23,16 @@
"scope": "Five synthetic case pairs; no population data, behavioural responses or national estimates. Annual model calculations; actual UC assessment periods and timing of tax payments can differ.",
"assumptions": "Lone parent age35 with child age4, employment as main job, £18,000 annual wages, side business with zero expenses, London/Central London private rent £12,000/year, UC and Child Benefit take-up true. Sole trader age35, full-time35hours/week, £20,000 receipts and £500 costs, no other income, owns home outright, no UC claim. Both: council tax input zero; no childcare costs, capital, disability, pensions, losses or other income. Omitted inputs otherwise retain pinned model defaults. No UC award, floor amount, work allowance, or earnings intermediate is forced.",
"oracle_tolerance_gbp": 0.02,
+ "forecast": {
+ "dashboard_commit": "640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2",
+ "source": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/blob/640426575270224db9b04d6c94d30e264a347be2/src/uk_budget_data/forecast/obr_october_2026.json",
+ "forecast_file_git_blob": "b504a48fffb93714ff358d869cad712b6daea20e",
+ "forecast_module_git_blob": "b2ca186b6fd514f334ced11934d38b256e6d2127",
+ "forecast_file_sha256": "dc039d30660d17f30a45e49538dbd22953e02bd4f6b63eda2eaebcf8252baf54",
+ "baseline_and_reform": true,
+ "nominal_household_inputs": "Held fixed in 2027; the forecast updates model parameters, not the supplied income amounts.",
+ "remaining_series": "March paths remain for cpih, non-labour income, private rent, mortgage interest, per-capita series, council tax and fuel volumes/prices, as recorded by this forecast vintage."
+ },
"independent_arithmetic": "Basic-rate income tax20% above Personal Allowance£12,570; known-receipt taxable profit=max(0,receipts-max(expenses,allowance)); Class4 NI6% above£12,570; active UC award falls55% of extra UC net earnings above its unchanged work allowance. Missing-receipt outputs separately test the pinned fallback, not the legal receipt-based calculation."
},
"cases": [
@@ -135,12 +145,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 36801.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 36821.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 34411.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 17101.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 17121.994140625,
"household_tax": 2300.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 22000.0,
- "household_gross_income": 39101.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 39121.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
@@ -200,12 +210,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 36981.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 37001.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 34591.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 16881.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 16901.994140625,
"household_tax": 1900.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 22000.0,
- "household_gross_income": 38881.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 38901.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
@@ -345,12 +355,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 35901.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 35921.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 33511.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 18201.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 18221.994140625,
"household_tax": 1800.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 19500.0,
- "household_gross_income": 37701.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 37721.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
@@ -410,12 +420,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 35946.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 35966.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 33556.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 18146.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 18166.994140625,
"household_tax": 1700.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 19500.0,
- "household_gross_income": 37646.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 37666.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
@@ -550,12 +560,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 35811.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 35831.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 33421.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 18311.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 18331.994140625,
"household_tax": 2000.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 19500.0,
- "household_gross_income": 37811.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 37831.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
@@ -615,12 +625,12 @@
"child_benefit": 1455.8287353515625
},
"household": {
- "household_net_income": 35946.48828125,
+ "household_net_income": 35966.58984375,
"hbai_household_net_income": 33556.92578125,
- "household_benefits": 18146.892578125,
+ "household_benefits": 18166.994140625,
"household_tax": 1700.403076171875,
"household_market_income": 19500.0,
- "household_gross_income": 37646.890625,
+ "household_gross_income": 37666.9921875,
"rent": 12000.0,
"council_tax": 0.0
}
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
index b13af94b7..572d1e792 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md
@@ -1,10 +1,13 @@
-> Draft review note: the national figures below use the earlier recorded forecast snapshot and await replacement by the regenerated savings and property results. The household calculations remain as stated.
+> Draft review note: the national figures below are an earlier dashboard snapshot retained for review. The combined snapshot has been withdrawn, and replacement savings and property results have not passed reconciliation. They are not final national results.
The Autumn Budget 2026 increases the basic, higher and additional income tax rates on savings and property income by a further two percentage points from **6 April 2027**, taking them to **24%, 44% and 49%**. Savings rates apply across the UK. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dividend rates remain unchanged. These are the changes announced in the [Budget 2026, paragraphs 6.246 and 6.247](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142 "Budget 2026 #page 142,45").
-PolicyEngine estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, compared with the Treasury's **£160 million** for that year. These are preliminary static estimates; the Treasury costing includes behavioural responses.
+Key figures for 2027–28:
-A basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year. A landlord in England with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more; a Scottish landlord with the same fully usable finance costs pays £80 less.
+- A basic-rate saver with £2,000 of annual interest pays £20 more a year.
+- A landlord in England with £10,000 of property profit and £4,000 of mortgage interest pays £120 more.
+- A Scottish landlord with the same fully usable finance costs pays £80 less, because the finance-cost reduction rises while Scottish property tax rates stay unchanged.
+- The Treasury forecasts £160 million of additional revenue. The earlier recorded static estimate is £664 million; replacement dashboard figures are still being checked. The national results below retain that earlier snapshot for draft review, while the Treasury costing includes behavioural responses.
A [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance) covers the trading allowance increase.
@@ -20,7 +23,11 @@ The [Budget 2025 technical note](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chan
The same note sets the ordering from April 2027: employment, pension and trading income first; property next; savings after that; and dividends last. Allowances first reduce income other than property, savings or dividends. Taxable income then fills the bands in that order, so employment and rental income can push savings interest into a higher band.
-## Savers pay the higher rates on interest above their allowances
+## Household impacts
+
+The examples below isolate the announced savings and property measures in 2027–28. They show income tax, holding the stated income and expenses fixed.
+
+### Savers pay the higher rates on interest above their allowances
The Personal Savings Allowance remains £1,000 for basic-rate taxpayers, £500 for higher-rate taxpayers and £0 for additional-rate taxpayers. People with low other income can also qualify for a starting rate of 0% on up to £5,000 of savings interest. These allowances depend on total income, as [HMRC's savings guidance](https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings/how-much-is-tax-free) explains. Interest earned inside an ISA remains exempt from income tax.
@@ -34,19 +41,25 @@ These hypothetical adults live in England and receive only the wages and interes
For the basic-rate example, £2,000 − £1,000 = £1,000 faces the savings basic rate: £1,000 × 22% = £220 before, against £1,000 × 24% = £240 after. The higher-rate example pays an extra £1,500 × 2% = £30.
-
The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income levels, each additional £500 of interest above the allowance adds £10 to the tax increase.
```chart
{
- "type": "bar",
+ "type": "line",
"title": "Savings tax increases apply above the Personal Savings Allowance",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax increase; England, salaries £30,000 and £60,000, 2027–28",
"xKey": "interest",
- "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax (£)",
+ "xLabel": "Annual savings interest",
+ "yLabel": "Extra annual income tax",
"format": {
"prefix": "£",
- "decimals": 0
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
+ },
+ "xFormat": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
},
"source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
"series": [
@@ -61,54 +74,244 @@ The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income leve
"color": "secondary"
}
],
+ "markers": [
+ {
+ "x": 500,
+ "label": "£60,000 salary: savings allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 1000,
+ "label": "£30,000 salary: savings allowance"
+ }
+ ],
"data": [
{
- "interest": "£500",
+ "interest": 500,
"basic": 0.0,
"higher": 0.0
},
{
- "interest": "£1,000",
+ "interest": 600,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 2.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 700,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 4.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 800,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 6.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 900,
+ "basic": 0.0,
+ "higher": 8.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1000,
"basic": 0.0,
"higher": 10.0
},
{
- "interest": "£1,500",
+ "interest": 1100,
+ "basic": 2.0,
+ "higher": 12.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1200,
+ "basic": 4.0,
+ "higher": 14.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1300,
+ "basic": 6.0,
+ "higher": 16.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1400,
+ "basic": 8.0,
+ "higher": 18.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1500,
"basic": 10.0,
"higher": 20.0
},
{
- "interest": "£2,000",
+ "interest": 1600,
+ "basic": 12.0,
+ "higher": 22.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1700,
+ "basic": 14.0,
+ "higher": 24.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1800,
+ "basic": 16.0,
+ "higher": 26.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 1900,
+ "basic": 18.0,
+ "higher": 28.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2000,
"basic": 20.0,
"higher": 30.0
},
{
- "interest": "£2,500",
+ "interest": 2100,
+ "basic": 22.0,
+ "higher": 32.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2200,
+ "basic": 24.0,
+ "higher": 34.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2300,
+ "basic": 26.0,
+ "higher": 36.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2400,
+ "basic": 28.0,
+ "higher": 38.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2500,
"basic": 30.0,
"higher": 40.0
},
{
- "interest": "£3,000",
+ "interest": 2600,
+ "basic": 32.0,
+ "higher": 42.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2700,
+ "basic": 34.0,
+ "higher": 44.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2800,
+ "basic": 36.0,
+ "higher": 46.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 2900,
+ "basic": 38.0,
+ "higher": 48.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3000,
"basic": 40.0,
"higher": 50.0
},
{
- "interest": "£3,500",
+ "interest": 3100,
+ "basic": 42.0,
+ "higher": 52.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3200,
+ "basic": 44.0,
+ "higher": 54.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3300,
+ "basic": 46.0,
+ "higher": 56.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3400,
+ "basic": 48.0,
+ "higher": 58.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3500,
"basic": 50.0,
"higher": 60.0
},
{
- "interest": "£4,000",
+ "interest": 3600,
+ "basic": 52.0,
+ "higher": 62.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3700,
+ "basic": 54.0,
+ "higher": 64.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3800,
+ "basic": 56.0,
+ "higher": 66.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 3900,
+ "basic": 58.0,
+ "higher": 68.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4000,
"basic": 60.0,
"higher": 70.0
},
{
- "interest": "£4,500",
+ "interest": 4100,
+ "basic": 62.0,
+ "higher": 72.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4200,
+ "basic": 64.0,
+ "higher": 74.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4300,
+ "basic": 66.0,
+ "higher": 76.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4400,
+ "basic": 68.0,
+ "higher": 78.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4500,
"basic": 70.0,
"higher": 80.0
},
{
- "interest": "£5,000",
+ "interest": 4600,
+ "basic": 72.0,
+ "higher": 82.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4700,
+ "basic": 74.0,
+ "higher": 84.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4800,
+ "basic": 76.0,
+ "higher": 86.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 4900,
+ "basic": 78.0,
+ "higher": 88.0
+ },
+ {
+ "interest": 5000,
"basic": 80.0,
"higher": 90.0
}
@@ -116,7 +319,7 @@ The chart varies annual interest for the same two salaries. At these income leve
}
```
-## Landlords' mortgage-interest relief rises too
+### Landlords' mortgage-interest relief rises too
For individual residential landlords, mortgage interest normally produces a tax reduction rather than a deduction from rental profits. The reduction is limited by finance costs, property profits, adjusted total income and the tax liability. [HMRC's explanation of residential finance-cost relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/changes-to-tax-relief-for-residential-landlords-how-its-worked-out-including-case-studies) describes these limits.
@@ -137,7 +340,7 @@ Both pay £200 more before relief, while their finance-cost reduction rises by
The property **rate** increase excludes Scottish taxpayers, whose rental income follows Scottish rules. Finance-cost relief is a separate calculation. The [Finance Act 2026 amendment](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/schedule/1/paragraph/40/enacted) ties it to the UK property basic rate without a Scottish exception. Applying that rule, a Scottish landlord able to use the full reduction on £4,000 of eligible finance costs receives £80 more relief, reducing their income tax by £80 if nothing else changes. A mortgage-free Scottish landlord has no change from this measure. The savings increase still applies across the UK.
-## When property income pushes savings into a higher band
+### When property income pushes savings into a higher band
Consider an adult in England with £45,000 of salary, £6,000 of property profit after allowable expenses, £2,000 of interest and no mortgage interest. The £12,570 Personal Allowance leaves £32,430 of taxable salary. That uses £32,430 of the £37,700 basic-rate band, leaving £5,270.
@@ -155,9 +358,13 @@ The extra tax is £120 on property plus £30 on savings, or **£150 a year**. Th
[Try the Budget dashboard's calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026). Its salary input is for 2026–27 and is grown into the target year, while this table fixes salary at £45,000 in 2027–28. On its current earnings path, a £45,000 salary input becomes about £46,080, giving total tax of £9,014 before and £9,164 after. The additional tax remains £150. These values can be entered manually; the existing preset may use different incomes.
-## Preliminary national estimates
+## Population impacts
-The dashboard's [revenue estimate](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv) estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The estimates remain preliminary while the Treasury comparison is reconciled.
+### Recorded national estimates
+
+The earlier dashboard snapshot's [revenue estimate](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/budgetary_impact.csv) estimates that the measure raises **£664 million in 2027–28**, increasing to **£793 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects: savings, rental income and other household circumstances are held fixed. The combined snapshot has been withdrawn following the separation of savings and property into two dashboard measures. These figures remain here for draft review while the replacement results are checked.
+
+### Household income by decile
The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/winners_losers.csv) show an annual household income reduction of **£23 across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. Households in the top decile lose £107 on average. Each decile contains roughly equal numbers of people, ranked by household income adjusted for household size. The cash figures are household-weighted averages within those groups.
@@ -175,11 +382,13 @@ The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-bud
| 10 (highest income) | −£107 |
| All households | −£23 |
+### People affected
+
The model's [population results](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/unearned_income_rates_up/8bd7d211ae66c19d/metrics.csv) indicate that **10.67% of people live in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. An average loss within a decile does not mean every household in it loses. The lowest decile's £13 average loss also exceeds the £6 to £11 averages in deciles 2 to 7; an income-source breakdown is needed to establish what drives that pattern.
The government estimates that **84% of income tax payers are unaffected** in 2027–28 and that around half the revenue comes from the top 10% of households. Budget paragraph 2.50 and footnote 74 base these estimates on projected HMRC Survey of Personal Incomes data and Treasury household mapping. The model's affected-person share uses a different population and threshold from the taxpayer estimate, so the two reach figures are not directly comparable. The decile means also do not establish a share of government revenue: that comparison requires weighted tax totals by decile.
-## The Treasury's costing: £160 million in 2027–28
+### Treasury comparison
The Treasury costs savings and property separately. Their combined forecast is £160 million in 2027–28 and £1,045 million in 2031–32.
@@ -192,12 +401,21 @@ The Treasury costs savings and property separately. Their combined forecast is
The Treasury costings allow for some landlords incorporating and savers moving funds into tax-advantaged products such as ISAs. The static model holds those choices fixed. The published costing notes do not explain the annual profile, including the £15 million savings figure in 2026–27 before the rates take effect. No particular collection-timing explanation is assumed here. A component comparison is needed to distinguish the property and savings contributions to the difference.
+## Assumptions and limitations
+
+- The worked examples are hypothetical single adults aged 35. Their income is fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts. The examples include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans, property losses, carried-forward finance costs or other reliefs. Savings are outside ISAs.
+- The household tables show tax attributable to each income source. They do not estimate household income after means-tested benefits. The mortgage examples assume the full finance-cost reduction can be used.
+- The Scottish mortgage example applies the existing Finance Act rule linking relief to the UK property basic rate. The Finance Bill will set the final implementation of the new rates.
+- The dashboard calculator grows a 2026–27 salary input into the selected year. Its current earnings path differs from fixing the same nominal salary in 2027–28, as the mixed-income example explains.
+- National estimates are static, with no behavioural response. The Treasury forecasts use different data and include behaviour. Their fiscal-year profile cannot be attributed to a particular timing effect without reconciliation.
+- The national figures await replacement by checked savings and property results. The income-source explanation for the lowest-decile result, component reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate shares gaining and losing remain outstanding. Average decile changes do not establish shares of government revenue.
+
## Methodology
-The examples isolate the newly announced 2027–28 changes, including finance-cost relief, holding income and expenses constant. They include no pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loans or other reliefs. They show tax attributable to each income source, rather than household net income after benefits.
+The household calculations use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and PolicyEngine core (version 3.33.3). Each comparison applies only the announced savings and property changes, including finance-cost relief, against the already scheduled 2027–28 rules. Both household scenarios use the OBR’s October 2026 forecast update at dashboard commit `64042657`, matching the Pension Tax Allowance analysis. Supplied 2027–28 income stays fixed; the forecast updates the model’s projected parameters. Tax calculations are checked against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact schedule breakpoints and points every £100, and its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of interest.
-The examples use `policyengine.py` 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3. Income is fixed at the stated 2027–28 amounts, and tax changes are checked against independent arithmetic.
+The recorded national results reuse the dashboard's certified Microcosm UK 2024–25 dataset, `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504`. They apply the initial October 2026 OBR forecast overlay to both baseline and reform. Series not updated by that overlay retain the March forecast path, and the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. These aggregate outputs were generated by the dashboard; this article does not claim a new local population run.
-The national estimates use the certified Microcosm UK 2024–25 national data and the initial October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both baseline and reform. Growth series not updated by that overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the dataset retains its pre-Budget calibration. The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460/files) record exact dataset identifiers, checksums, parameter changes and calculation records.
+The deciles contain roughly equal numbers of people ranked by equivalised household income. Cash changes are household-weighted means, including unaffected households. Published decile cells meet a floor of at least three distinct survey households. The affected-person calculation uses an absolute net-income percentage change above 0.01%, floors baseline household income at £1 and includes households with a valid decile.
-Published decile cells meet a disclosure floor of at least three survey households. The affected-person calculation uses the absolute percentage income change, floors baseline household income at £1 and includes households with a valid decile. It does not supply separate shares gaining and losing or absolute affected-person counts. The income-source explanation for the lowest-decile result and the component reconciliation remain outstanding.
+The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460/files) record the calculation inputs, model versions, forecast settings, dataset checksum and source snapshots. Monetary amounts in tables are rounded to whole pounds; the calculation records retain precision.
From 6ceb8f8ae480442467cf4e10887bce6c5f5fa253 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:20:27 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 15/36] Match trading explainer to PTA structure and line
charts
---
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 289 ++++++++++++++++--
1 file changed, 260 insertions(+), 29 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index ad08a3002..05842a669 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,8 +1,13 @@
-> Draft review note: the national figures below use the earlier recorded forecast snapshot. Replacement outputs have not passed reconciliation. The household examples remain as stated.
+> Draft review note: the national figures below are an earlier dashboard snapshot retained for review. Replacement estimates have not passed reconciliation. They are not final national results.
-The [Autumn Budget 2026, paragraph 6.254](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. Our preliminary static estimate puts the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28**. The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a **£225 million receipts cost in 2028–29**. These figures cover different years and use different methods.
+The [Autumn Budget 2026, paragraph 6.254](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. This post explains the rule and its effects on example households, using PolicyEngine UK calculations.
-An employee paying 20% income tax on their side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction. A sole trader can also save National Insurance, while Universal Credit can offset part of a claimant's tax saving. Receipts, expenses and other household circumstances determine the gain.
+Key figures:
+
+- An employee paying 20% income tax on eligible side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction.
+- A sole trader with £20,000 of receipts and £500 of expenses gains £520 through lower income tax and Class 4 National Insurance.
+- A Universal Credit claimant in the example below keeps £180 of a £400 tax reduction, after UC falls by £220.
+- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a £225 million receipts cost in 2028–29. The earlier dashboard snapshot estimates a £112 million cost in 2027–28; the figures cover different years and methods, and replacement model estimates remain outstanding.
Our [Budget dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
@@ -18,7 +23,11 @@ There is one allowance per individual across their eligible trades and miscellan
The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
-## Three people with the same receipts
+## Household impacts
+
+The examples isolate the trading allowance increase in 2027–28. They hold earnings, receipts and expenses fixed and exclude other Budget measures.
+
+### Three people with the same receipts
Alex, Blair and Casey are hypothetical single adults aged 35 in England in 2027–28. Each earns £30,000 from employment and receives £4,000 from a side business. They have no other income, dependants, student loan repayments or benefit entitlements. Their trading profits remain in the 20% income tax band. Their costs differ.
@@ -40,20 +49,27 @@ At a 40% marginal rate, the same calculations give reductions of £800, £200 an
Alex is also the household proposed for the dashboard's trading-allowance example. Its North West location and salary growth do not change this £400 result. The table fixes income in 2027–28 and isolates the allowance; select that measure alone when comparing with the calculator, whose spending inputs can also activate other Budget measures.
-## From £500 to £5,000 of side income
+### From £500 to £5,000 of side income
The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assumes no business expenses; the other assumes expenses equal 75% of receipts. Each calculation chooses the larger deduction in each scenario.
```chart
{
- "type": "bar",
+ "type": "line",
"title": "Trading allowance: the income tax reduction depends on expenses",
"subtitle": "Annual income tax reduction; England, £30,000 salary, 2027–28",
"xKey": "receipts",
- "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction (£)",
+ "xLabel": "Annual side-business receipts",
+ "yLabel": "Annual income tax reduction",
"format": {
"prefix": "£",
- "decimals": 0
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
+ },
+ "xFormat": {
+ "prefix": "£",
+ "decimals": 0,
+ "separator": true
},
"source": "PolicyEngine 6.11.1 / UK 2.151.0; synthetic adults, 2027–28; incomes held fixed.",
"series": [
@@ -68,54 +84,253 @@ The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assum
"color": "secondary"
}
],
+ "markers": [
+ {
+ "x": 1000,
+ "label": "Current allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 3000,
+ "label": "New allowance"
+ },
+ {
+ "x": 4000,
+ "label": "75% expenses equal £3,000"
+ }
+ ],
"data": [
{
- "receipts": "£500",
+ "receipts": 500,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 600,
"noExpenses": 0.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£1,000",
+ "receipts": 700,
"noExpenses": 0.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£1,500",
+ "receipts": 800,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 900,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1000,
+ "noExpenses": 0.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1100,
+ "noExpenses": 20.0,
+ "highExpenses": 20.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1200,
+ "noExpenses": 40.0,
+ "highExpenses": 40.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1300,
+ "noExpenses": 60.0,
+ "highExpenses": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1333.3333333333333,
+ "noExpenses": 66.67,
+ "highExpenses": 66.67
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1400,
+ "noExpenses": 80.0,
+ "highExpenses": 70.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1500,
"noExpenses": 100.0,
"highExpenses": 75.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£2,000",
+ "receipts": 1600,
+ "noExpenses": 120.0,
+ "highExpenses": 80.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1700,
+ "noExpenses": 140.0,
+ "highExpenses": 85.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1800,
+ "noExpenses": 160.0,
+ "highExpenses": 90.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 1900,
+ "noExpenses": 180.0,
+ "highExpenses": 95.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2000,
"noExpenses": 200.0,
"highExpenses": 100.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£2,500",
+ "receipts": 2100,
+ "noExpenses": 220.0,
+ "highExpenses": 105.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2200,
+ "noExpenses": 240.0,
+ "highExpenses": 110.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2300,
+ "noExpenses": 260.0,
+ "highExpenses": 115.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2400,
+ "noExpenses": 280.0,
+ "highExpenses": 120.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2500,
"noExpenses": 300.0,
"highExpenses": 125.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£3,000",
+ "receipts": 2600,
+ "noExpenses": 320.0,
+ "highExpenses": 130.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2700,
+ "noExpenses": 340.0,
+ "highExpenses": 135.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2800,
+ "noExpenses": 360.0,
+ "highExpenses": 140.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 2900,
+ "noExpenses": 380.0,
+ "highExpenses": 145.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3000,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 150.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£3,500",
+ "receipts": 3100,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 135.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3200,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 120.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3300,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 105.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3400,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 90.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3500,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 75.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£4,000",
+ "receipts": 3600,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 60.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3700,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 45.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3800,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 30.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 3900,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 15.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4000,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4100,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4200,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4300,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4400,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4500,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4600,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4700,
+ "noExpenses": 400.0,
+ "highExpenses": 0.0
+ },
+ {
+ "receipts": 4800,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£4,500",
+ "receipts": 4900,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
},
{
- "receipts": "£5,000",
+ "receipts": 5000,
"noExpenses": 400.0,
"highExpenses": 0.0
}
@@ -125,7 +340,7 @@ The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assum
With no expenses, the tax reduction rises between £1,000 and £3,000 of receipts, then stays at £400. With expenses equal to 75% of receipts, the reduction reaches £150 at £3,000 of receipts and falls to zero at £4,000: actual expenses then equal the new £3,000 allowance.
-## A full-time sole trader can gain £520
+### A full-time sole trader can gain £520
The allowance also reduces profits for Class 4 National Insurance, as [HMRC's Business Income Manual, BIM86052](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86052), explains. The side-business examples above remain below the [£12,570 Class 4 lower profits limit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions/rates-and-allowances-national-insurance-contributions), so their Class 4 contributions do not change.
@@ -140,7 +355,7 @@ Consider instead a 35-year-old sole trader in England working 35 hours a week, w
Both taxable profits exceed the £12,570 lower limit, so the extra £2,000 deduction saves 6% in Class 4 contributions as well as 20% income tax. With benefits unchanged, annual household net income rises by £520.
-## Universal Credit can offset part of the tax saving
+### Universal Credit can offset part of the tax saving
The trading allowance itself does not reduce the profit counted for Universal Credit. However, paying less income tax can increase the earnings UC takes into account, reducing the award.
@@ -154,9 +369,15 @@ Earnings already exceed the work allowance. Every £1 of tax saved increases cou
These are annual model results. Actual UC uses monthly assessment periods and deducts relevant self-employment income tax and National Insurance when paid, under [regulation 57(2)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/57). Uneven receipts or a large tax payment in one month can produce a different pattern of awards and a different annual gain.
-## Preliminary national estimates
+## Population impacts
+
+The figures in this section are an archived dashboard snapshot, retained to review the national analysis. Replacement estimates have not passed reconciliation and these figures are not final results.
+
+### Budgetary impact
-The dashboard's [preliminary cost estimates](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv) put the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects, holding incomes and behaviour fixed. Missing gross receipts and incomplete miscellaneous-income coverage limit the estimates, which remain provisional pending reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+The dashboard's [earlier cost estimates](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv) put the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects, holding incomes and behaviour fixed. Missing gross receipts and incomplete miscellaneous-income coverage limit the estimates, which remain provisional pending reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+
+### Household income by decile
The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/winners_losers.csv) show a **£4 annual household income gain across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. Households in decile 8 gain £9 on average. These averages include households with no eligible trading income. Each decile contains roughly equal numbers of people ranked by household income adjusted for household size; the cash figures are household-weighted means within those groups. Figures below are rounded to the nearest pound.
@@ -174,13 +395,15 @@ The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-bud
| 10 (highest income) | +£7 |
| All households | +£4 |
-The dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
+### People affected
+
+In the earlier snapshot, the dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
-## Treasury costing
+### Treasury costing
The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column reports the provisional static estimates. Both columns express costs to the Exchequer as positive values.
-| Year | Treasury cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine provisional static cost (£ million) |
+| Year | Treasury receipts cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine earlier static cost (£ million) |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| 2026–27 | 0 | 0 |
| 2027–28 | 0 | 112 |
@@ -193,11 +416,11 @@ The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no rece
The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. It does not give an affected-person count. The static model holds circumstances fixed and faces the coverage limits below. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates to timing, behaviour or coverage.
-## Methodology and coverage
+## Assumptions and limitations
The hypothetical examples isolate the allowance increase, holding earnings, receipts and expenses fixed and choosing the larger deduction. The side-business tax table excludes benefit interactions; the lone-parent and sole-trader examples calculate the stated tax, National Insurance and benefit changes. None includes trading losses or behavioural responses.
-The household calculations use PolicyEngine 6.11.1 with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and core 3.33.3, matching the dashboard. They supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, and check the resulting tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic.
+The side-business examples have no benefit entitlements. The lone-parent example assumes full take-up of Universal Credit and Child Benefit and no minimum income floor. The sole trader claims no Universal Credit. These are annual results; monthly UC assessment periods and the timing of tax payments can change the annual gain in practice. No example includes pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loan repayments or other tax reliefs.
Gross receipts are unavailable in the population data. The model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) therefore approximates the allowance using reported profit. Tests with the same hypothetical households show effects in both directions:
@@ -208,6 +431,14 @@ This population approximation also misses Class 4 savings: the profits it reliev
The model also omits allowance relief against its separate miscellaneous-income input, although qualifying miscellaneous income shares the legal allowance. This excludes a category of potential gains. The combined direction of bias in the national estimate remains unknown.
-The national figures use the dashboard's [documented calculations](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), based on certified 2024–25 UK population data released in October 2026. Both baseline and reform use the October 2026 OBR forecast update. Growth series not updated retain the model's March forecast path, and the population data retain their pre-Budget calibration. Household examples use fixed nominal incomes.
-
**Preliminary estimates:** reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate shares gaining and losing remain outstanding. The population figures should be read with the coverage limits above.
+
+## Methodology
+
+We use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and core (version 3.33.3), matching the dashboard's adopted bundle. Household calculations use `pe.uk.calculate_household`, with the OBR's October 2026 forecast update applied to both the baseline and reform. The reform changes only the trading allowance, from £1,000 to £3,000. Earnings, receipts and expenses stay at the stated nominal amounts in 2027–28.
+
+The household examples supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, choose the larger deduction and check tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact points where the schedule changes and regular £100 intervals. Its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of receipts. Both scenarios use the October forecast at dashboard commit `64042657`, matching the Pension Tax Allowance analysis. The [shared analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460/files) record inputs, outputs, validation and the exact forecast source. Tables and chart labels round monetary values to whole pounds.
+
+The archived national figures reuse the dashboard's [documented calculations](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), rather than a new population run for this post. They use the certified Microcosm UK 2024–25 national dataset released in October 2026 (`microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504`) and the initial October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both scenarios. Growth series not updated by that overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the data retain their pre-Budget calibration. The analysis is static, with no behavioural response.
+
+Published decile cells contain at least three distinct survey households. The affected-person metric uses absolute household net-income changes above 0.01%, floors baseline income at £1 and includes households with a valid income decile. It does not measure how many individual traders qualify for the allowance.
From 8751cf295516ccba85f53d382232c361a7f161e1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Max Ghenis
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:38:13 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 16/36] Trading allowance post: cut the model's national
figures until the final run
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
The national figures came from preview run 230c4665427e0bb1, which the
final regeneration replaces, so they are cut (MERGE.md gate 2). The
Treasury costing keeps Table 6.1 row 15 and the timing explanation, and
links the dashboard for PolicyEngine's estimate, whose 2027-28 figure is
marked not comparable (Self Assessment timing, mapping.csv).
Also drops the draft review note and the sentence about a proposed
dashboard example the dashboard does not have, links the dashboard's
canonical URL and the analysis folder on main, and names the lone parent
in the £1,500 limitation case.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5
---
...uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 70 +++++--------------
1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 54 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index 05842a669..b815e65b9 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -1,5 +1,3 @@
-> Draft review note: the national figures below are an earlier dashboard snapshot retained for review. Replacement estimates have not passed reconciliation. They are not final national results.
-
The [Autumn Budget 2026, paragraph 6.254](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1ec57bdb574cf1c9b3f12/E03668986_HMT_Budget_2026_ELAY__2_.pdf#page=142) raises the trading allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, covering eligible trading and miscellaneous income. This post explains the rule and its effects on example households, using PolicyEngine UK calculations.
Key figures:
@@ -7,9 +5,9 @@ Key figures:
- An employee paying 20% income tax on eligible side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction.
- A sole trader with £20,000 of receipts and £500 of expenses gains £520 through lower income tax and Class 4 National Insurance.
- A Universal Credit claimant in the example below keeps £180 of a £400 tax reduction, after UC falls by £220.
-- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts a £225 million receipts cost in 2028–29. The earlier dashboard snapshot estimates a £112 million cost in 2027–28; the figures cover different years and methods, and replacement model estimates remain outstanding.
+- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts no change in receipts in 2027–28 and a £225 million cost in 2028–29.
-Our [Budget dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+Our [Budget dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
## How the allowance works
@@ -47,8 +45,6 @@ For Casey, actual expenses exceed both allowances. The individual continues to d
At a 40% marginal rate, the same calculations give reductions of £800, £200 and £0, assuming no tax-band changes or other interactions.
-Alex is also the household proposed for the dashboard's trading-allowance example. Its North West location and salary growth do not change this £400 result. The table fixes income in 2027–28 and isolates the allowance; select that measure alone when comparing with the calculator, whose spending inputs can also activate other Budget measures.
-
### From £500 to £5,000 of side income
The chart varies gross receipts for the same £30,000 employee. One series assumes no business expenses; the other assumes expenses equal 75% of receipts. Each calculation chooses the larger deduction in each scenario.
@@ -369,52 +365,24 @@ Earnings already exceed the work allowance. Every £1 of tax saved increases cou
These are annual model results. Actual UC uses monthly assessment periods and deducts relevant self-employment income tax and National Insurance when paid, under [regulation 57(2)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/57). Uneven receipts or a large tax payment in one month can produce a different pattern of awards and a different annual gain.
-## Population impacts
-
-The figures in this section are an archived dashboard snapshot, retained to review the national analysis. Replacement estimates have not passed reconciliation and these figures are not final results.
-
-### Budgetary impact
-
-The dashboard's [earlier cost estimates](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/budgetary_impact.csv) put the cost at **£112 million in 2027–28** and **£131 million in 2031–32**. These are static annual government-balance effects, holding incomes and behaviour fixed. Missing gross receipts and incomplete miscellaneous-income coverage limit the estimates, which remain provisional pending reconciliation with Treasury costings.
+## Treasury costing
-### Household income by decile
+The table reproduces the Treasury's Table 6.1, row 15, with the cost to the Exchequer shown as a positive value.
-The [average cash changes](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/winners_losers.csv) show a **£4 annual household income gain across all households** in 2027–28, including unaffected households. Households in decile 8 gain £9 on average. These averages include households with no eligible trading income. Each decile contains roughly equal numbers of people ranked by household income adjusted for household size; the cash figures are household-weighted means within those groups. Figures below are rounded to the nearest pound.
-
-| Income decile | Average annual household income change |
+| Year | Treasury receipts cost (£ million) |
| --- | ---: |
-| 1 (lowest income) | +£1 |
-| 2 | +£3 |
-| 3 | +£1 |
-| 4 | +£0 |
-| 5 | +£2 |
-| 6 | +£3 |
-| 7 | +£6 |
-| 8 | +£9 |
-| 9 | +£6 |
-| 10 (highest income) | +£7 |
-| All households | +£4 |
-
-### People affected
-
-In the earlier snapshot, the dashboard's [affected-population metric](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/metrics.csv) is **0.93% of people living in households whose net income changes by more than 0.01%** in 2027–28. It is not a count of eligible traders. The current exports do not provide separate shares gaining and losing or an absolute affected-person count.
-
-### Treasury costing
-
-The Treasury column reproduces Table 6.1, row 15. The PolicyEngine column reports the provisional static estimates. Both columns express costs to the Exchequer as positive values.
-
-| Year | Treasury receipts cost (£ million) | PolicyEngine earlier static cost (£ million) |
-| --- | ---: | ---: |
-| 2026–27 | 0 | 0 |
-| 2027–28 | 0 | 112 |
-| 2028–29 | 225 | 120 |
-| 2029–30 | 165 | 113 |
-| 2030–31 | 175 | 123 |
-| 2031–32 | 180 | 131 |
+| 2026–27 | 0 |
+| 2027–28 | 0 |
+| 2028–29 | 225 |
+| 2029–30 | 165 |
+| 2030–31 | 175 |
+| 2031–32 | 180 |
The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no receipts effect in 2027–28. Tax-year liabilities and fiscal-year receipts forecasts differ. For context, an outstanding Self Assessment balancing payment for 2027–28 would normally be due on 31 January 2029. Some taxpayers also make advance instalments, as [HMRC's payments-on-account guidance](https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account) explains.
-The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. It does not give an affected-person count. The static model holds circumstances fixed and faces the coverage limits below. Reconciliation has not yet attributed the gap between the estimates to timing, behaviour or coverage.
+The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. It does not give an affected-person count.
+
+Our [Budget dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) shows PolicyEngine's static estimate of the cost. It counts each tax year's liability in that year, so its 2027–28 figure is not comparable with the Treasury's receipts in 2027–28.
## Assumptions and limitations
@@ -424,21 +392,15 @@ The side-business examples have no benefit entitlements. The lone-parent example
Gross receipts are unavailable in the population data. The model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) therefore approximates the allowance using reported profit. Tests with the same hypothetical households show effects in both directions:
-- For the parent with £1,500 of receipts and no expenses, supplying receipts produces the correct £100 tax reduction. Omitting receipts makes the approximation tax the full £1,500 before the reform and none afterwards, producing a £300 reduction.
+- For the lone parent above with £1,500 of receipts instead of £4,000, and no expenses, supplying receipts produces the correct £100 tax reduction. Omitting receipts makes the approximation tax the full £1,500 before the reform and none afterwards, producing a £300 reduction.
- For the sole trader with £20,000 receipts and £500 expenses, supplying receipts produces the £520 tax-and-NI gain above. With only the £19,500 profit supplied, the approximation applies no deduction under either allowance, producing no gain.
This population approximation also misses Class 4 savings: the profits it relieves are at most £3,000, below the £12,570 lower profits limit.
The model also omits allowance relief against its separate miscellaneous-income input, although qualifying miscellaneous income shares the legal allowance. This excludes a category of potential gains. The combined direction of bias in the national estimate remains unknown.
-**Preliminary estimates:** reconciliation, absolute affected-person counts and separate shares gaining and losing remain outstanding. The population figures should be read with the coverage limits above.
-
## Methodology
We use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and core (version 3.33.3), matching the dashboard's adopted bundle. Household calculations use `pe.uk.calculate_household`, with the OBR's October 2026 forecast update applied to both the baseline and reform. The reform changes only the trading allowance, from £1,000 to £3,000. Earnings, receipts and expenses stay at the stated nominal amounts in 2027–28.
-The household examples supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, choose the larger deduction and check tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact points where the schedule changes and regular £100 intervals. Its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of receipts. Both scenarios use the October forecast at dashboard commit `64042657`, matching the Pension Tax Allowance analysis. The [shared analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/pull/1460/files) record inputs, outputs, validation and the exact forecast source. Tables and chart labels round monetary values to whole pounds.
-
-The archived national figures reuse the dashboard's [documented calculations](https://ab2026-local-preview.vercel.app/uk/autumn-budget-2026/data/artifacts/trading_allowance_raise/230c4665427e0bb1/receipt.json), rather than a new population run for this post. They use the certified Microcosm UK 2024–25 national dataset released in October 2026 (`microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504`) and the initial October 2026 OBR forecast overlay on both scenarios. Growth series not updated by that overlay retain the model's March forecast path; the data retain their pre-Budget calibration. The analysis is static, with no behavioural response.
-
-Published decile cells contain at least three distinct survey households. The affected-person metric uses absolute household net-income changes above 0.01%, floors baseline income at £1 and includes households with a valid income decile. It does not measure how many individual traders qualify for the allowance.
+The household examples supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, choose the larger deduction and check tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact points where the schedule changes and regular £100 intervals. Its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of receipts. Both scenarios use the October forecast at dashboard commit `64042657`. The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record inputs, outputs, validation and the exact forecast source. Tables and chart labels round monetary values to whole pounds.
From c78cdd602119648762b132d96db6c57ec26f9653 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Max Ghenis
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:53:32 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 17/36] Trading allowance post: name PolicyEngine's estimates
where the cut left them implicit
After the national figures were cut, say whose estimates the coverage
limits describe, drop the claim that the dashboard already shows the
cost, describe Table 6.1's 2027-28 entry as no receipts effect, and
name the baseline and reform in the methodology.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5
---
.../uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 10 +++++-----
1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index b815e65b9..237493023 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ Key figures:
- An employee paying 20% income tax on eligible side income can save £400 a year from the extra £2,000 deduction.
- A sole trader with £20,000 of receipts and £500 of expenses gains £520 through lower income tax and Class 4 National Insurance.
- A Universal Credit claimant in the example below keeps £180 of a £400 tax reduction, after UC falls by £220.
-- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) forecasts no change in receipts in 2027–28 and a £225 million cost in 2028–29.
+- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) records no receipts effect in 2027–28 and forecasts a £225 million cost in 2028–29.
Our [Budget dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
@@ -382,7 +382,7 @@ The effective date remains 6 April 2027 even though the Treasury records no rece
The [Treasury policy costing](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae1883fe4367e5c8b0467df/AB26_Policy_Costing.pdf#page=23) allows for taxpayers switching from actual expenses to the larger allowance, a behavioural response. It does not give an affected-person count.
-Our [Budget dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) shows PolicyEngine's static estimate of the cost. It counts each tax year's liability in that year, so its 2027–28 figure is not comparable with the Treasury's receipts in 2027–28.
+PolicyEngine's static estimates count each tax year's liability in that year, so a PolicyEngine figure for 2027–28 is not comparable with the Treasury's receipts in 2027–28.
## Assumptions and limitations
@@ -390,17 +390,17 @@ The hypothetical examples isolate the allowance increase, holding earnings, rece
The side-business examples have no benefit entitlements. The lone-parent example assumes full take-up of Universal Credit and Child Benefit and no minimum income floor. The sole trader claims no Universal Credit. These are annual results; monthly UC assessment periods and the timing of tax payments can change the annual gain in practice. No example includes pension contributions, Gift Aid, student loan repayments or other tax reliefs.
-Gross receipts are unavailable in the population data. The model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) therefore approximates the allowance using reported profit. Tests with the same hypothetical households show effects in both directions:
+PolicyEngine's national estimates use population data without gross receipts. The model's [deduction calculation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/2.151.0/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.py) therefore approximates the allowance using reported profit. Tests with the same hypothetical households show effects in both directions:
- For the lone parent above with £1,500 of receipts instead of £4,000, and no expenses, supplying receipts produces the correct £100 tax reduction. Omitting receipts makes the approximation tax the full £1,500 before the reform and none afterwards, producing a £300 reduction.
- For the sole trader with £20,000 receipts and £500 expenses, supplying receipts produces the £520 tax-and-NI gain above. With only the £19,500 profit supplied, the approximation applies no deduction under either allowance, producing no gain.
This population approximation also misses Class 4 savings: the profits it relieves are at most £3,000, below the £12,570 lower profits limit.
-The model also omits allowance relief against its separate miscellaneous-income input, although qualifying miscellaneous income shares the legal allowance. This excludes a category of potential gains. The combined direction of bias in the national estimate remains unknown.
+The model also omits allowance relief against its separate miscellaneous-income input, although qualifying miscellaneous income shares the legal allowance. This excludes a category of potential gains. The combined direction of bias in PolicyEngine's national estimate remains unknown.
## Methodology
We use the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1), PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0) and core (version 3.33.3), matching the dashboard's adopted bundle. Household calculations use `pe.uk.calculate_household`, with the OBR's October 2026 forecast update applied to both the baseline and reform. The reform changes only the trading allowance, from £1,000 to £3,000. Earnings, receipts and expenses stay at the stated nominal amounts in 2027–28.
-The household examples supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, choose the larger deduction and check tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact points where the schedule changes and regular £100 intervals. Its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of receipts. Both scenarios use the October forecast at dashboard commit `64042657`. The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record inputs, outputs, validation and the exact forecast source. Tables and chart labels round monetary values to whole pounds.
+The household examples supply both gross receipts and profit to represent actual expenses, choose the larger deduction and check tax and benefit changes against independent arithmetic. The line chart plots the exact points where the schedule changes and regular £100 intervals. Its interpolation agrees with PolicyEngine UK to within one penny at every £2 of receipts. The baseline and reform both use the October forecast at dashboard commit `64042657`. The [analysis files](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app-v2/tree/main/analysis/uk-budget-2026-income-tax) record inputs, outputs, validation and the exact forecast source. Tables and chart labels round monetary values to whole pounds.
From f992290decbefb766620225ea22e180ea17ed54d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:08:46 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 18/36] Clarify trading allowance exclusions and dashboard
introduction
---
.../posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md | 4 ++--
1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
index 237493023..dbec8f68a 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Key figures:
- A Universal Credit claimant in the example below keeps £180 of a £400 tax reduction, after UC falls by £220.
- The Treasury's [Table 6.1, row 15](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) records no receipts effect in 2027–28 and forecasts a £225 million cost in 2028–29.
-Our [Budget dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) places it alongside the other announced tax and benefit changes. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
+Our [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://www.policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) is where we publish estimates for this and the other Budget measures we model. We cover the savings and property income tax increases in a [separate explainer](/uk/research/uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax).
## How the allowance works
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ The allowance cannot create a tax loss. [HMRC's full-relief rules](https://www.g
There is one allowance per individual across their eligible trades and miscellaneous income, rather than a separate allowance for each activity. The allocation between sources follows [section 783AK of the Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/5/section/783AK). The separate property income allowance does not increase under this measure.
-The allowance is unavailable for partnership income and certain connected-party receipts, including income from an individual's employer or a company they control. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
+The allowance does not cover a trade carried on in partnership. Nobody can use it in a tax year in which their trading or miscellaneous income includes a payment from their employer or their spouse's or civil partner's employer, from a partnership in which they or someone connected to them is a partner, or from a company that they or someone connected to them owns or controls. [HMRC's exclusions](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/business-income-manual/bim86030) describe those restrictions.
## Household impacts
From 03d1e3ecb12143cad78f5a8873a31caf77b6222c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:14:09 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 19/36] Format merged blog metadata
---
app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 22 ++++------------------
1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-)
diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
index da681b649..cc63ab7bc 100644
--- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
+++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json
@@ -3,15 +3,8 @@
"title": "Autumn Budget 2026: raising the trading allowance",
"description": "The trading allowance rises from £1,000 to £3,000. We show how receipts and actual expenses determine the income tax reduction.",
"date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
- "tags": [
- "uk",
- "policy",
- "tax",
- "autumn-budget"
- ],
- "authors": [
- "ziming-hua"
- ],
+ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"],
+ "authors": ["ziming-hua"],
"filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.md",
"image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance.svg"
},
@@ -19,15 +12,8 @@
"title": "Autumn Budget 2026: higher tax on savings and property income",
"description": "Worked examples of the additional two percentage point increase from April 2027, including savings allowances and landlords' mortgage-interest relief.",
"date": "2026-10-28 14:00:00",
- "tags": [
- "uk",
- "policy",
- "tax",
- "autumn-budget"
- ],
- "authors": [
- "ziming-hua"
- ],
+ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget"],
+ "authors": ["ziming-hua"],
"filename": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.md",
"image": "uk-autumn-budget-2026-savings-property-income-tax.svg"
},
From 8edc879becd3d3a9834eabb33e30689f6751e7f3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ZimingHua
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 13:27:06 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 20/36] Add illustrated trading allowance cover
---
.../cover.webp | Bin 0 -> 45038 bytes
app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +-
2 files changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-)
create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance/cover.webp
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance/cover.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/uk-autumn-budget-2026-trading-allowance/cover.webp
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