diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a2a094ab --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,275 @@ +# Tax Table or rate schedule in the federal income tax references, October 10, 2026 + +This directory audits one convention behind every federal income tax reference in PolicyBench: the references apply the section 1 rate schedule exactly, where the Form 1040 instructions send a filer with taxable income under $100,000 to the Tax Table. It changes no reference, exclusion, score, payload, card, paper or snapshot. Which convention PolicyBench uses is Max's call, queued as decision d1263. + +Release audited: dashboard-data-20261010 (commit 5a8164a0), 47 models, references from policyengine-us 2.38.6. + +## Findings + +- **The law.** The Tax Table is the tax the statute imposes, in place of the schedule tax, on a filer who does not itemize and is under the ceiling (26 U.S.C. 3(a)(1)). The same paragraph requires its amounts to be "computed on the basis of the rates prescribed by section 1". The instructions set the ceiling at $100,000 and send line 16 and the capital gain worksheets' look-ups to the table under it, for itemizers too. +- **2026.** No 2026 Tax Table dated or posted before the 2026-07-03 freeze was found. The earliest found is the IRS's early release draft, dated Aug 28, 2026 and posted 09/16/2026. Archived pages of the IRS's draft listing up to the freeze day show none, though they are a sample and do not cover every day. No final 2026 table was found. The 2026 rate schedule was announced on October 9, 2025 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). +- **The construction.** No document read says how the IRS fills the table. The rule inferred here (the schedule's tax on the band's midpoint, rounded to a dollar, a half rounding up) reproduces all 8,248 amounts of the published 2025 table and all 8,248 of the 2026 draft. Values built with it are labelled constructed: they equal the IRS's draft, and no final 2026 table was found. +- **The engine.** policyengine-us 2.38.6 has no Tax Table logic. It applies the schedule in two variables, `income_tax_main_rates` and `tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates`. +- **What moves.** Of the 84 scored federal income tax references, the table changes 30 and moves 21 by more than the $1 tolerance, by -$2.96 to +$3.97. It also moves two scored federal refundable credit references. No scored state output changes. +- **What models answer.** On the 21 moved cells, 173 of 987 answers are within $1 of the schedule value and 18 within $1 of the table value; 16 of those 18 are within $1 of both. Two answers match the table alone, and neither explanation mentions a table. Of 4,700 federal income tax explanations, 6 use the words "tax table", and none of those six answers is within $1 of either value. +- **Scores.** Accepting either value raises two models' exact rates by 0.21 and 0.23 points and swaps ranks 35 and 36. Moving the references to table values lowers 21 models by up to 3.25 points and changes 17 ranks. + +## The decision is what the output means + +The audit shows what the references compute, and what the same computation gives when each look-up under $100,000 uses the constructed table. It does not establish what any household's filed return would show. That also depends on the methods not read (Form 8615 and Schedule J), on whether the filer rounds the return, and on a 2026 table the IRS has so far published only as a draft. Three readings of the output are open: + +1. **The tax on the return.** Where a return under $100,000 is figured through line 16 or a capital gain worksheet, the instructions give the table amount. On that basis 21 scored federal references and 2 scored refundable credit references differ from it by more than $1. Those counts are sensitivities of the engine's computation, not verified filing amounts. Option (c) follows, or (b) while the IRS's 2026 table is a draft. +2. **The tax computed from the section 1 rates, to the cent.** The references are right as they stand, and the definition has to be stated. Option (a) follows. +3. **What a careful reader could compute from law published before the freeze.** Both values are defensible, and (b) or exclusion follows. + +## Recommendation + +Reading 2: keep the rate schedule, and state the definition in the benchmark card, the paper and the v2 prompt (PolicyEngine/policybench#165). These are judgments about what the benchmark should measure. They are not findings of law. + +1. The schedule needs no convention beyond the published rates. The table adds three: its bands, the midpoint rule, which no document read states, and whether the looked-up amount is rounded. The earliest 2026 table found postdates the freeze and is a draft. +2. PolicyBench's amounts are computations to the cent, with a $1 tolerance. A return is not one: the filer may round every amount on it to whole dollars. +3. It changes no score. + +Its cost should be stated with it. On the current release the prompt does not say which computation is wanted. The line 16 instructions say a filer under $100,000 "must use the Tax Table", and where that governs a household's return, an answer that follows it is scored a miss: 21 federal cells in the sweep. Two answers are within $1 of the table value alone today. + +The models' answers do not show which reading is correct, or how any model read the question. What they show is a count: 173 of the 987 answers on the 21 cells are within $1 of the schedule value, and 2 are within $1 of the table value alone. + +The case for each other option: + +- **(b) Accept either value.** The current prompt leaves the convention open, and a reader who follows the form's instructions gives the table value. Accepting both marks neither reading wrong, whether or not any model gives the table value today. It needs a second accepted value in both scorers and the payload. Two models' rates rise, and ranks 35 and 36 swap. +- **(c) Table values.** If the output is the return's tax, section 3 and the instructions are the strongest ground there is, and the constructed values equal the IRS's draft in every amount. It rests on a draft and on a rule inferred from the tables, it needs a ruling on rounding, and it lowers 21 models' rates by up to 3.25 points. +- **Exclusion.** PolicyBench's usual treatment of a reference a careful reader could take two ways. It removes the 23 outputs the table moves by more than $1. It leaves the 9 the table changes by less, on which no answer's exact match differs between the two values. Every model's rate rises, and 24 ranks change. + +If the schedule is kept, one thing is worth watching on later boards: a model whose answers match the table value alone on several of these cells. The matches would not show how it computed, so its explanations would need reading. The most any model has today is one. + +## The law + +Read on 2026-10-10. `law/excerpts.md` has the passages and `law/sources.json` each document's address, dates and sha256. `scripts/law_sources.py` found all 44 excerpts verbatim in the saved documents (`law/excerpts_check.json`). + +- **26 U.S.C. 3(a)(1).** "In lieu of the tax imposed by section 1", a tax "determined under tables ... prescribed by the Secretary" is imposed on an individual who does not itemize and whose taxable income does not exceed the ceiling amount. Section 3(a)(2) lets the Secretary set the ceiling, at $20,000 or more. Section 3(a)(3) lets the Secretary extend the table to itemizers. Section 3(c) treats the table tax as tax imposed by section 1. The section was last amended in 1986. Pub. L. 119-21 does not touch it. +- **The instructions.** The 2025 Instructions for Form 1040, line 16: "If your taxable income is less than $100,000, you must use the Tax Table". At $100,000 or more the Tax Computation Worksheet applies, which is the schedule exactly. The instruction does not distinguish itemizers. Five other methods replace it for some returns: Form 8615, the Schedule D Tax Worksheet, the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet, Schedule J and the Foreign Earned Income Tax Worksheet. +- **The worksheets.** The Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet looks up two amounts (lines 22 and 24), the Schedule D Tax Worksheet two (lines 44 and 46), and the Foreign Earned Income Tax Worksheet's line 5 one more. Each look-up uses the Tax Table when its amount is under $100,000. Form 8615 and Schedule J were not read. +- **Rounding.** Whole-dollar amounts are the filer's option (26 U.S.C. 6102(b); "You can round off cents to whole dollars"). A filer who rounds must round every amount. +- **The regulation.** 26 CFR 1.3-1 still describes the elective table of the early 1970s and says nothing about today's. +- **2026 rates.** Rev. Proc. 2025-32, section 4.01, gives the 2026 rate tables under section 1(j)(2). The IRS announced it on October 9, 2025 (IR-2025-103). Pub. L. 119-21, section 70101, removed that subsection's 2025 end date. The 2026 Form 1040-ES, which IRS.gov lists as posted 02/13/2026, figures estimated tax "by using the 2026 Tax Rate Schedules". It is a form for estimated payments and does not settle the tax on a return. +- **The 2026 table.** None dated or posted before the freeze was found. What the search covered: + - On 2026-10-10, IRS.gov lists Publication 1040 at its 2025 revision (posted 01/15/2026), and `irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040gi.pdf` serves the 2025 instructions. No final 2026 table was found at either. + - The earliest 2026 table found is the IRS's early release draft of Publication 1040 (2026). Its cover is dated Aug 28, 2026, IRS.gov lists it as posted 09/16/2026, and every page is marked "DRAFT—NOT FOR FILING". It keeps the $100,000 ceiling. + - The Internet Archive holds 14 copies of pages of the IRS's draft listing captured from 2026-05-20 to 08:09 UTC on 2026-07-03. They show 251 drafts, whose posting dates run from 03/23/2026 to 07/01/2026. None is a Publication 1040, the Instructions for Form 1040 or a tax table (`law/draft_listing_history.json` lists them). + + The captures are single pages of a listing that held 1,215 to 1,219 drafts over those weeks, so they sample it. The search does not cover a draft posted before 03/23/2026, or on a day whose listing page was not archived (06/09/2026 is one), and replaced since. + +So the table is the law's tax for a non-itemizer under the ceiling, and the instructions' rule for line 16 and the worksheet look-ups of a return under it. No scored reference turns on the itemizer question: none of the 33 scored returns the table applies to itemizes. + +PolicyBench's rule is that a scored reference follows from law published before the freeze. No 2026 table from before the freeze was found, and its amounts are a function of rates that were published by then. Whether that makes the schedule or the table the answer under the rule is part of the decision. + +## The engine + +Read in policyengine-us 2.38.6 as installed from `uv.lock`. + +- `tax_at_main_rates` (`variables/gov/irs/tax/federal_income/before_credits/tax_at_main_rates.py`) sums each bracket's rate times the amount in it. +- `income_tax_main_rates` applies it to taxable income less the gains and dividends taxed at capital gain rates. That is line 16 for a return without them, and line 22 or 44 of the worksheets. +- `tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates` applies it to all taxable income (lines 24 and 46). `capital_gains_tax` caps the tax on the gains at the difference. +- `regular_tax_before_credits` adds `income_tax_main_rates` and `capital_gains_tax`. +- The words "tax table" appear in the federal income tax code once, in a variable's documentation text. No formula looks anything up. +- The engine has no Form 8615 tax and no Schedule J income averaging: no file under its federal variables or parameters names Form 8615, Schedule J or income averaging. (Its alternative minimum tax exemption has a rule for children subject to the kiddie tax, which is a different computation.) It does model the foreign earned income exclusion, which no benchmark household claims. + +The sweep checks that the engine's 2026 brackets equal Rev. Proc. 2025-32's. It covers the computations the engine represents, not every method a return could use. + +## Method + +1. **Construct.** `scripts/tax_table.py` builds the table from a rate schedule in integer arithmetic. `scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py` reads the IRS's tables out of Publication 1040 into `law/irs_tax_table_2025.csv` and `law/irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv`. +2. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_tax_table.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs for the 100 households on the release's reference system: policyengine-us 2.38.6 with the pre-freeze conventions and the Maryland adapter, through the reference builder's own `compute_outputs`. Its baseline reproduces all 1,926 scored references. It then reruns every household with the two formulas above copied and their look-up swapped: + - `schedule_copy`: the look-up left as the schedule. Every output is bit-identical to the baseline, so the copies are the engine's formulas. + - `table`: the constructed 2026 table for an amount under $100,000. + - `table_whole_dollar`: a sensitivity. The same, with each looked-up amount rounded to a whole dollar first, and the worksheet applied to the rounded amount at $100,000 or more. Nothing else on the return is rounded. + + Everything downstream is the engine's: the capital gain cap, the alternative minimum tax, the limit on nonrefundable credits, the refundable credits and each state's tax. Outputs: `verification/sweep_tax_table.csv`, `tax_units.csv` and `sweep_summary.json`. +3. **Score.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` scores the frozen run, read from git at the release commit, under the conventions below. Outputs: `verification/federal_cells.csv`, `model_answers.csv`, `model_counts.csv`, `leaderboard_impact_models.csv` and `leaderboard_impact.json`. +4. **States.** `scripts/state_tax_tables.py` checks which states prescribe a table (below). It recomputes nothing. + +## What moves + +Every household is one federal return in the engine. Of the 100 returns, 49 have no taxable income, 38 have some under $100,000 and 13 have $100,000 or more. + +| Federal income tax references | All | Scored | +|---|---:|---:| +| Total | 100 | 84 | +| No taxable income | 49 | 45 | +| Taxable income of $100,000 or more (the worksheet is the schedule) | 13 | 6 | +| Taxable income under $100,000 (the table applies) | 38 | 33 | +| Changed by the table | 35 | 30 | +| Moved by more than $1 | 26 | 21 | +| Changed by $1 or less | 9 | 9 | + +Whether another method could replace the look-up on these 38 returns was checked as far as the households' facts go: + +- **Form 8615** needs a filer under 24. The filer is 25 or older in 36 of the 38. The other two are 22 and 23 (scenario_091 and scenario_082, both among the 21 moved cells below). Form 8615 would also need each to be a full-time student and to have a living parent. No household states either, and the prompt treats an unlisted status as false. +- **Schedule J** needs income from farming or fishing and is the filer's choice. Two of the 38 have farm income, a loss in each (scenario_042 and scenario_064, also among the 21). Schedule J was not read. + +Three scored references do not change although the table applies: in scenario_026, scenario_028 and scenario_119, nonrefundable credits use up the whole regular tax under either convention, so the output is $0 both ways. + +Among the 30 scored references that change, the table is higher in 20 and lower in 10. The differences run from -$2.96 to +$3.97, with a median of +$1.14 and a mean absolute difference of $1.60. By size: 9 of $1 or less, 11 over $1 and up to $2, 8 over $2 and up to $3, and 2 over $3. A difference can be at most $6.00 under the ceiling: half of a $50 band at 22%, plus the half dollar of rounding. + +The 21 scored references that move by more than $1 (a dagger marks a return that goes through a capital gain worksheet): + +| Household | Filing status | Amount looked up | Band | Schedule value | Constructed table value | Difference | +|---|---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:| +| scenario_042 (WI) | single † | 21,749.71 | 21,700–21,750 | 2,361.96 | 2,359.00 | -2.96 | +| scenario_082 (NY) | head of household † | 79,387.12 | 79,350–79,400 | 9,579.77 | 9,577.60 | -2.17 | +| scenario_018 (AZ) | single | 45,492.09 | 45,450–45,500 | 5,211.05 | 5,209.00 | -2.05 | +| scenario_000 (TX) | single | 26,287.11 | 26,250–26,300 | 2,906.45 | 2,905.00 | -1.45 | +| scenario_068 (MD) | single | 17,983.53 | 17,950–18,000 | 1,910.02 | 1,909.00 | -1.02 | +| scenario_091 (WI) | single † | 14,316.66 | 14,300–14,350 | 1,350.00 | 1,351.00 | +1.00 | +| scenario_046 (OK) | joint | 44,964.29 | 44,950–45,000 | 499.71 | 501.00 | +1.29 | +| scenario_089 (NC) | joint | 60,964.27 | 60,950–61,000 | 6,819.71 | 6,821.00 | +1.29 | +| scenario_007 (ID) | single | 32,964.12 | 32,950–33,000 | 3,707.70 | 3,709.00 | +1.30 | +| scenario_086 (GA) | head of household | 48,412.90 | 48,400–48,450 | 3,255.55 | 3,257.00 | +1.45 | +| scenario_064 (WI) | joint | 67,812.12 | 67,800–67,850 | 4,441.46 | 4,443.00 | +1.54 | +| scenario_037 (NC) | single | 15,810.43 | 15,800–15,850 | 1,649.25 | 1,651.00 | +1.75 | +| scenario_015 (IN) | single | 26,809.38 | 26,800–26,850 | 2,969.13 | 2,971.00 | +1.87 | +| scenario_053 (ID) | single | 50,868.68 | 50,850–50,900 | 5,903.11 | 5,905.00 | +1.89 | +| scenario_077 (LA) | single | 6,906.18 | 6,900–6,950 | 690.62 | 693.00 | +2.38 | +| scenario_067 (IN) | joint | 55,102.00 | 55,100–55,150 | 5,616.24 | 5,619.00 | +2.76 | +| scenario_102 (NC) | joint | 55,000.80 | 55,000–55,050 | 6,104.10 | 6,107.00 | +2.90 | +| scenario_051 (LA) | single † | 23,900.00 | 23,900–23,950 | 2,620.00 | 2,623.00 | +3.00 | +| scenario_009 (NC) | joint | 73,700.00 | 73,700–73,750 | 8,348.00 | 8,351.00 | +3.00 | +| scenario_075 (FL) | single † | 86,960.37 | 86,950–87,000 | 14,777.15 | 14,780.86 | +3.72 | +| scenario_039 (VA) | single | 63,109.22 | 63,100–63,150 | 8,596.03 | 8,600.00 | +3.97 | + +scenario_091's schedule value is $1,349.9988, so its difference is $1.0012. A table value carries cents where the return subtracts a credit or adds capital gain tax that does (scenario_075, scenario_082). `verification/federal_cells.csv` has every reference. For each looked-up amount it gives the constructed table tax beside the IRS draft's, which are equal in every row. + +The table also changes five excluded federal income tax outputs, by $2.01 to $5.43: scenario_022, scenario_033, scenario_093, scenario_114 and scenario_123. Two of them, scenario_022 and scenario_114, are the only returns under the ceiling that itemize. + +### Outputs that inherit it + +| Output | Schedule | Table | Difference | Status | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---| +| scenario_026 (NC) federal refundable credits | 2,013.49 | 2,011.00 | -2.49 | scored | +| scenario_028 (PA) federal refundable credits | 3,274.93 | 3,273.13 | -1.80 | scored | +| scenario_119 (VA) federal refundable credits | 2,854.01 | 2,853.23 | -0.77 | excluded | +| scenario_093 (MO) state income tax | 3,388.2456 | 3,388.2407 | -0.005 | excluded | + +In the first three the regular tax rises under the table, nonrefundable credits absorb the rise, and the refundable credits fall by the same amount. Missouri deducts a share of federal income tax (`mo_federal_income_tax_deduction` reads `income_tax`), which is how scenario_093's federal change reaches its state tax. State formulas in ten states read a federal income tax variable (AL, CA, IA, LA, MO, MT, NE, NM, OK and OR). No scored state output changes by any amount in this release, and no other output of any kind changes. + +In all, the table changes 32 scored outputs (30 federal income tax, 2 refundable credits) and moves 23 of them by more than $1. + +### Rounding the looked-up amount: a sensitivity + +A filer who rounds the return looks up a whole-dollar amount. The sweep's `table_whole_dollar` variant rounds only that amount, so it is a sensitivity of the look-up and not a whole-dollar return, which rounds every amount. It moves one scored reference by more than $1. scenario_042's amount is $21,749.71, which rounds to $21,750 and into the next band: $2,365 against $2,359. Five scored references with $100,000 or more of taxable income change by less than 10 cents, because the worksheet is applied to the rounded amount. So the table convention is itself two conventions on scenario_042, $6 apart. + +## What the models answered + +On the 21 scored federal cells that move by more than $1, each of the 47 models gave one answer (987 answers): + +| Answer is within $1 of | Answers | +|---|---:| +| the schedule value only | 157 | +| both values | 16 | +| the table value only | 2 | +| neither | 812 | + +- The two table-only answers are DeepSeek V4 Pro's $1,351.00 on scenario_091, $1.0012 from the schedule value, and Claude Opus 5.5's $9,578.20 on scenario_082. Neither explanation mentions a table. +- 21 models have at least one schedule-only match (GPT-6 Sol 16, Kimi K3 14). 25 models match neither value on any of the 21 cells. +- 626 of the 987 answers are whole dollars. +- Of all 4,700 federal income tax explanations in the release, 6 contain "tax table", from three models. Four are Claude Haiku 4.5's, two of which go on to list bracket thresholds ("2026 HoH tax tables: 10% up to $20,550"). Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview's says "Calculated based on 2026 tax tables" and gives no method. Claude Sonnet 5's, on scenario_000, cites "slight rounding to standard IRS tax tables" for an answer of $3,204, about $298 from the schedule value and $299 from the table value. None of the six answers is within $1 of either value. + +`verification/model_answers.csv` has every answer on the 32 changed outputs and `model_counts.csv` the count for each model. + +## Leaderboard impact + +The headline is the household-equal, population-weighted exact rate. From `verification/leaderboard_impact.json`: + +| Convention | Scored outputs | Exact-rate change, all models | Models gaining / losing | Exact ranks changed | GPT-6 Sol | +|---|---:|---|---|---:|---:| +| (a) rate schedule (published) | 1,926 | | | | 95.58% | +| (b) accept either value | 1,926 | 0 to +0.23 points | 2 / 0 | 2 | 95.58% | +| (c) table values as the reference | 1,926 | -3.25 to +0.21 points | 1 / 21 | 17 | 92.33% | +| for comparison: stop scoring the 23 moved outputs | 1,903 | +1.05 to +4.22 points | 47 / 0 | 24 | 96.64% | + +- **(b) Either.** Claude Opus 5.5 rises from 94.41% to 94.64% and DeepSeek V4 Pro from 79.69% to 79.90%, which takes it past Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview for 35th. No other model's rate changes. +- **(c) Table.** The 21 models with a schedule match lose 0.20 to 3.25 points. GPT-6 Sol loses the most, Kimi K3 2.86 and Claude Opus 5.5 2.32. DeepSeek V4 Pro gains 0.21. The first eight ranks hold. Grok 4.7, which matches neither value on any of the 21 cells, rises from 14th to 9th. Within-1% rates move by at most 0.21 points and bounded scores by at most 0.003. +- **Exclusion** is PolicyBench's usual remedy for a reference a careful reader could take two ways, so it is scored for comparison. It removes the 23 outputs the table moves by more than $1. Most are cells the leading models match on the schedule, which is why it changes the most ranks. The 9 outputs the table changes by $1 or less stay scored: on all 423 answers to them, the exact match is the same against either value. + +The first ten models (all 47 are in `verification/leaderboard_impact_models.csv`): + +| Model | (a) schedule | (b) either | (c) table | Matches on the 21 cells: schedule / table / both / neither | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---| +| GPT-6 Sol | 95.58 | 95.58 | 92.33 | 16 / 0 / 0 / 5 | +| Claude Opus 5.5 | 94.41 | 94.64 | 92.10 | 12 / 1 / 1 / 7 | +| GPT-5.6 Sol | 93.49 | 93.49 | 91.01 | 12 / 0 / 3 / 6 | +| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 92.16 | 92.16 | 90.07 | 10 / 0 / 2 / 9 | +| GPT-6 Luna | 91.97 | 91.97 | 89.94 | 10 / 0 / 3 / 8 | +| GPT-6 Astra | 91.94 | 91.94 | 89.40 | 12 / 0 / 0 / 9 | +| Claude Fable 5.1 | 91.27 | 91.27 | 89.38 | 9 / 0 / 0 / 12 | +| Kimi K3 | 90.97 | 90.97 | 88.11 | 14 / 0 / 1 / 6 | +| GPT-6.1 Sol | 90.35 | 90.35 | 88.02 | 11 / 0 / 0 / 10 | +| GPT-5.6 Luna | 89.16 | 89.16 | 87.30 | 9 / 0 / 0 / 12 | + +Under (b) and (c) every scored output the table changes takes part, 32 in all. The legacy household impact summary (`impact_summary_by_model.csv`) is not recomputed here. + +### Two scorers + +Each convention is scored twice, and the two must agree for every model: + +- **The repo's scorer.** `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs, scores (a), (c) and the exclusion case. The unchanged copy reproduces every compared value of the published payload. `policybench.analysis.weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model` scores all four. For (b) each model is scored against the accepted value nearer its own answer, which is the same rule for an exact match. The function and the command give identical rates. +- **An independent re-aggregation.** `scripts/independent_scorer.py` reads the run's files itself and imports nothing from `policybench`. + +The largest gap between them is 2.8e-14 points. + +## States: a scoped follow-up + +Not audited. `scripts/state_tax_tables.py` records which states' resident instructions prescribe a tax table and how many references sit there (`verification/state_tax_tables.json`). A Subfleet research lane read the instructions; the script then fetched each document and found every quotation in it. Band widths are as the lane read them and were not rechecked. + +All 31 scored state income tax references with a nonzero value sit in 21 states. + +- **A table is prescribed in 12:** CA, NJ, MD, NY, VA, OK, MN, AL, CT, WI, AR and WV. They hold 16 of the 31 references. +- **The instructions make it mandatory in 8** (CA, MD, NY, OK, MN, AL, WI and WV), which hold 11. It is optional in VA and CT, and in AR unless the filer itemizes. New Jersey's two sources word it differently. +- **Ceilings** are $100,000 of taxable income in most. Minnesota's is $86,800, New York's is $65,000 of taxable income with adjusted gross income of $107,650 or less, and Connecticut's is $102,000 of adjusted gross income. Virginia's table runs to $98,356. +- **No table in 9:** NC, IN, AZ, MI, PA and IL tax at a flat rate, GA at a flat rate rounded to the dollar, and OH and ID from a schedule or worksheet. + +The documents read are each state's 2025 instructions or forms, with two exceptions: New Jersey's table is labelled 2018 and posted as the current one, and Pennsylvania's rate is from an undated page of its revenue department. No state's 2026 table was looked for. + +For the 16 references in the table states, nothing here establishes whether the state's table applies to the return or what it would change. That is the follow-up question, and the answer to the federal question should decide the states' too. + +## Invariants and tests + +`tests/test_tax_table_audit.py` states and checks them. + +For the constructed table, at every taxable income under $100,000, filing status column and year (2025 and 2026), by property test: + +- it is a whole, non-negative number of dollars, and zero at zero; +- it never falls as taxable income rises, and is constant inside a band; +- it is the schedule's tax at the band's midpoint, a half dollar rounding up; +- it is within half a band-width times the band's top marginal rate, plus the half dollar of rounding, of the schedule's tax on the income itself, and so within one band-width times that rate; +- the joint column is at most the head of household column, which is at most the single column, and the separate column equals the single one; +- at $100,000 or more the instructions' method is the schedule exactly. + +Differential tests: + +- the constructed 2025 table equals the IRS's published table in all 8,248 amounts, and the constructed 2026 table equals the IRS's draft in all 8,248; +- no other simple rule does: the tax at the band's lower or upper bound, or the midpoint tax with a half rounded down, rounded to even or truncated, each misses more than 1,000 amounts; +- the revenue procedures' printed base amounts follow from their thresholds and rates; +- the independent scorer agrees with the repo's scorer on generated runs with exclusions, missing answers and a second accepted value, and accepting a second value never lowers a rate; +- the recorded sweep's schedule tax and table tax on each return equal `scripts/tax_table.py`'s, and the recorded rates under (a) equal the published payload's. + +`manifest.json` pins the release's inputs and every file here except this README, the manifest itself and the logs of the test and mutation runs. A test rebuilds it. `verification/mutants_tax_table.txt` records a mutation run: each of 34 deliberate faults in the construction, the table parser, the sweep's look-up and the independent scorer fails a test. + +The first mutation run of this audit, which was not kept, left two faults standing: a 39% top rate and a parser that read past the table. `scripts/top_rate_detection.py` reproduces the first. With the income generator the test first used, a random property test misses that fault in 13 of 40 seeded runs, because few draws reach the top bracket; with the generator it uses now, in none (`verification/top_rate_detection.json`). A test of each bracket's printed formula and a parser test with rows after the table now hold both. + +## What each option would take + +None of this is done here. + +- **Keep the schedule and say so.** A sentence in the benchmark card's reference section and the paper's method: federal income tax references apply the section 1 rate schedule to taxable income to the cent, at every income, and not the Tax Table. A matching line in the v2 prompt's output definitions. No score changes. +- **Accept either value.** A second accepted value for 32 scored outputs: a new field beside the reference, both scorers (`policybench/analysis.py` and the app's), the payload schema, and the card and paper. Two models' rates change. The whole-dollar variant of scenario_042 would need a ruling as a third value or not. +- **Move to table values.** Regenerate 32 scored references and re-review the five excluded federal outputs the table moves. Decide the rounding of the looked-up amount. Hold the engine's two formulas in a reference adapter until policyengine-us carries a table, and file that upstream. Re-run the annotations of every row whose exact match flips. The values would rest on a table the IRS has published only as a draft. + +Related: decision d1252 asks whether to keep scoring scenario_039's federal income tax. Its reference is $8,596.03 on the schedule and $8,600 on the table. + +## Files + +- `law/`: the excerpts, the sources, the excerpt check, the archived draft listings' record, both IRS Tax Tables as CSV, and the state claims. +- `scripts/`: `tax_table.py` (the construction), `parse_irs_tax_table.py`, `law_sources.py`, `release.py` (the frozen run, read from git), `sweep_tax_table.py`, `independent_scorer.py`, `leaderboard_impact.py`, `state_tax_tables.py`, `mutants_tax_table.py`, `top_rate_detection.py` and `build_manifest.py`. +- `verification/`: the sweep, the per-return detail, the cells, the answers, the scores, the state check, and the test and mutation runs. +- `manifest.json`: the sha256 of the release's inputs and of every file above but this README and the two run logs. diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/draft_listing_history.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/draft_listing_history.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..19ecb005 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/draft_listing_history.json @@ -0,0 +1,1763 @@ +{ + "freeze": "2026-07-03", + "listing": "https://www.irs.gov/draft-tax-forms", + "note": "Each capture is one 25-row page of the whole listing (its size at each capture is recorded below), newest posting first. A draft is listed once, at its latest posting. The captures do not show every draft posted in the period: pages for some days were not archived, and none shows a posting before the earliest date below. A range below is the earliest and latest posting date on the captured pages, not a claim that every draft posted between them is on one.", + "captures_on_or_before_freeze": 14, + "drafts_in_the_whole_listing_on_or_before_freeze": [ + 1215, + 1219 + ], + "distinct_rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze": 251, + "posting_dates_covered_on_or_before_freeze": [ + [ + "2026-03-23", + "2026-06-08" + ], + [ + "2026-06-10", + "2026-07-01" + ] + ], + "rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze": [ + { + "product": "Publication 1099", + "title": "General Instructions for Certain Information Returns (Forms 1096, 1097, 1098, 1099, 3921, 3922, 5498, and W-2G)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-03-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1099-LPS", + "title": "Long-Term Care Premiums Paid Statement", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-03-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2220", + "title": "Underpayment of Estimated Tax by Corporations", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-03-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1096", + "title": "Annual Summary and Transmittal of U.S. Information Returns", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1099-R", + "title": "Distributions From Pensions, Annuities, Retirement or Profit-Sharing Plans, IRAs, Insurance Contracts, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5498-TA", + "title": "Trump Account Contribution Information", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-03" + }, + { + "product": "Publication 505", + "title": "Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8955-SSA", + "title": "Annual Registration Statement Identifying Separated Participants with Deferred Vested Benefits", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-07" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8804-W", + "title": "Installment Payments of Section 1446 Tax for Partnerships", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-04-13" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2290", + "title": "Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax Return", + "revision": "Jul 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-14" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2290 (sp)", + "title": "Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Jul 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-14" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8941", + "title": "Credit for Small Employer Health Insurance Premiums", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-14" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1062", + "title": "Instructions for Form 1062, Deferral of Tax on Gain From the Sale or Exchange of Qualified Farmland Property to Qualified Farmers", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-14" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8858", + "title": "Information Return of U.S. Persons With Respect to Foreign Disregarded Entities (FDEs) and Foreign Branches (FBs)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-15" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 2290", + "title": "Instructions for Form 2290, Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax Return", + "revision": "Jul 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8813", + "title": "Partnership Withholding Tax Payment Voucher (Section 1446)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8992 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Schedule A, for Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1310", + "title": "Statement of Person Claiming Refund Due a Deceased Taxpayer", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4137", + "title": "Social Security and Medicare Tax on Unreported Tip Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8992", + "title": "Calculation of Net Controlled Foreign Corporation Tested Income (NCTI)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 7218", + "title": "Clean Fuel Production Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8827", + "title": "Credit For Prior Year Minimum Tax - Corporations", + "revision": "Dec 2025", + "posted": "2026-04-21" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-MISC and 1099-NEC", + "title": "Instructions for Forms 1099-MISC and 1099-NEC, Miscellaneous Infomation and Nonemployee Compensation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 56", + "title": "Notice Concerning Fiduciary Relationship", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8992 (Schedule B)", + "title": "Calculation of Net CFC Tested Income for Members of a U.S. Consolidated Group", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8979", + "title": "Partnership Representative Designation or Resignation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-23" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 2290 (sp)", + "title": "Instructions for Form 2290, Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Jul 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8865 (Schedule K-1)", + "title": "Partner's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-24" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule F)", + "title": "Profit or Loss From Farming", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5471 (Schedule J)", + "title": "Accumulated Earnings and Profits (E&P) of Foreign Corporation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5471 (Schedule Q)", + "title": "CFC/FCFC Income by CFC/FCFC Income Groups", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form W-3", + "title": "Transmittal of Wage and Tax Statements", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-04-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form W-3SS", + "title": "Transmittal of Wage and Tax Statements", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-04-28" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-DA", + "title": "Instructions for Form 1099-DA, Digital Asset Proceeds From Broker Transactions", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041-T", + "title": "Allocation of Estimated Tax Payments to Beneficiaries (Under Code section 643(g))", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S (Schedule K-1)", + "title": "Shareholder's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 56-F", + "title": "Notice Concerning Fiduciary Relationship of Financial Institution", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule F) (sp)", + "title": "Profit or Loss From Farming (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1042", + "title": "Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign Persons", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1042-T", + "title": "Annual Summary and Transmittal of Forms 1042-S", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-04-30" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-K", + "title": "Instructions for Form 1099-K, Payment Card and Third Party Network Transactions", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-04-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5471 (Schedule E)", + "title": "Income, War Profits, and Excess Profits Taxes Paid or Accrued", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5471 (Schedule P)", + "title": "Previously Taxed Earnings and Profits of the U.S. Person With Respect to the Foreign Corporation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1099-K", + "title": "Payment Card and Third Party Network Transactions", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-POL", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for Certain Political Organizations", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8809", + "title": "Application for Extension of Time to File Information Returns", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8853", + "title": "Archer MSAs and Long-Term Care Insurance Contracts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form W-9", + "title": "Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-F (Schedule P)", + "title": "List of Foreign Partner's Interests in Partnerships", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5471 (Schedule I-1)", + "title": "Information for Net Controlled Foreign Corporation (CFC) Tested Income", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 706 (Schedule J)", + "title": "Funeral Expenses and Expenses Incurred In Administering Property Subject to Claims", + "revision": "Jul 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 940", + "title": "Employer's Annual Federal Unemployment (FUTA) Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 940 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Multi-State Employer and Credit Reduction Information", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1099-NEC", + "title": "Nonemployee Compensation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2441", + "title": "Child and Dependent Care Expenses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 3800", + "title": "General Business Credit", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8879-F", + "title": "IRS e-file Signature Authorization for Form 1041", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 941", + "title": "Employer's QUARTERLY Federal Tax Return", + "revision": "Mar 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 944", + "title": "Employer's ANNUAL Federal Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 945", + "title": "Annual Return of Withheld Federal Income Tax", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-06" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8027", + "title": "Employer's Annual Information Return of Tip Income and Allocated Tips", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-07" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8889", + "title": "Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-07" + }, + { + "product": "Form 706-GSD", + "title": "Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax Return for Distributions", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 706-GSDN", + "title": "Generation-Skipping Trust Distribution Notification", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8453-EG", + "title": "E-file Declaration for Forms 709, 709-NA, 706, 706-A, 706-GSD, 706-GST, 706-NA, 706-QDT, and 708", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 943", + "title": "Employer's Annual Federal Tax Return for Agricultural Employees", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8804-C", + "title": "Certificate of Partner-Level Items to Reduce Section 1446 Withholding", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8805", + "title": "Foreign Partner's Information Statement of Section 1446 Withholding Tax", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8846", + "title": "Credit for Employer Social Security and Medicare Taxes Paid on Certain Employee Tips", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8962", + "title": "Premium Tax Credit (PTC)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8994", + "title": "Employer Credit for Paid Family and Medical Leave", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form CT-1", + "title": "Employer's Annual Railroad Retirement Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8933", + "title": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-12" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1116", + "title": "Foreign Tax Credit (Individual, Estate, or Trust)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-13" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 5498-TA", + "title": "Instructions for Form 5498-TA, Trump Account Contribution Information", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-13" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8815", + "title": "Exclusion of Interest From Series EE and I U.S. Savings Bonds Issued After 1989", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-14" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8880", + "title": "Credit for Qualified Retirement Savings Contributions", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-14" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule C)", + "title": "Profit or Loss From Business (Sole Proprietorship)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule D)", + "title": "Capital Gains and Losses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule R)", + "title": "Credit for the Elderly or the Disabled", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4868", + "title": "Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 706-GST", + "title": "Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax Return For Terminations", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8843", + "title": "Statement for Exempt Individuals and Individuals With a Medical Condition", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8879-EG", + "title": "E-file Authorization for Forms 709, 709-NA, 706, 706-A, 706-GSD, 706-GST, 706-NA, 706-QDT, and 708", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction W-9", + "title": "Instructions for the Requester of Form W-9, Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041 (Schedule I)", + "title": "Alternative Minimum Tax-Estates and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8840", + "title": "Closer Connection Exception Statement for Aliens", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8919", + "title": "Uncollected Social Security and Medicare Tax on Wages", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form W-9 (sp)", + "title": "Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 8812)", + "title": "Credits for Qualifying Children and Other Dependents", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule E)", + "title": "Supplemental Income and Loss", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4720", + "title": "Return of Certain Excise Taxes Under Chapters 41 and 42 of the Internal Revenue Code", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 7206", + "title": "Self-Employed Health Insurance Deduction", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8849", + "title": "Claim for Refund of Excise Taxes", + "revision": "May 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8849 (Schedule 5)", + "title": "Section 4081(e) and 6435 Claims", + "revision": "May 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8865", + "title": "Return of U.S. Persons With Respect to Certain Foreign Partnerships", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8888", + "title": "Allocation of Refund", + "revision": "Nov 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8936", + "title": "Clean Vehicle Credits", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8936 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Clean Vehicle Credit Amount", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 8849 (Schedule 5)", + "title": "Instructions for Schedule 5 (Form 8849), Section 4081(e) and 6435 claims", + "revision": "May 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-19" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule B)", + "title": "Interest and Ordinary Dividends", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1065 (Schedule D)", + "title": "Capital Gains and Losses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4797", + "title": "Sales of Business Property", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 7210", + "title": "Clean Hydrogen Production Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8829", + "title": "Expenses for Business Use of Your Home", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8832", + "title": "Entity Classification Election", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-20" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule C) (sp)", + "title": "Profit or Loss From Business (Sole Proprietorship) (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule H) (sp)", + "title": "Household Employment Taxes (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule SE)", + "title": "Self-Employment Tax (Schedule SE)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1065 (Schedule K-1)", + "title": "Partner's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2106", + "title": "Employee Business Expenses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5074", + "title": "Allocation of Individual Income Tax to Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 7211", + "title": "Clean Electricity Production Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8610", + "title": "Annual Low-Income Housing Credit Agencies Report", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8874", + "title": "New Markets Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8993", + "title": "Section 250 Deduction for Foreign-Derived Deduction Eligible Income (FDDEI) and Net CFC Tested Income (NCTI)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 941 (Schedule R)", + "title": "Allocation Schedule for Aggregate Form 941 Filers", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 941-X", + "title": "Adjusted Employer's QUARTERLY Federal Tax Return or Claim for Refund", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 943 (Schedule R)", + "title": "Allocation Schedule for Aggregate Form 943 Filers", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 943-X", + "title": "Adjusted Employer's Annual Federal Tax Return for Agricultural Employees or Claim for Refund", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 944-X", + "title": "Adjusted Employer's ANNUAL Federal Tax Return or Claim for Refund", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 945-X", + "title": "Adjusted ANNUAL Return of Withheld Federal Income Tax or Claim for Refund", + "revision": "Feb 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form CT-1X", + "title": "Adjusted Employer's Annual Railroad Retirement Tax Return or Claim for Refund", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-21" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for Estates and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1094-C", + "title": "Transmittal of Employer-Provided Health Insurance Offer and Coverage Information Returns", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1095-C", + "title": "Employer-Provided Health Insurance Offer and Coverage", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5329", + "title": "Additional Taxes on Qualified Plans (Including IRAs) and Other Tax-Favored Accounts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5695", + "title": "Carryforward of Residential Energy Credit", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8831", + "title": "Excise Taxes on Excess Inclusions of REMIC Residual Interests", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8863", + "title": "Education Credits (American Opportunity and Lifetime Learning Credits)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8949", + "title": "Sales and Other Dispositions of Capital Assets", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040-V", + "title": "Payment Voucher for Individuals", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041 (Schedule D)", + "title": "Capital Gains and Losses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1099-MISC", + "title": "Miscellaneous Information", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 3468", + "title": "Investment Credit", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4255", + "title": "Certain Credit Recapture, Excessive Payments, and Penalties", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8879-EMP", + "title": "E-file Authorization for Employment Tax Returns", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-27" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule C)", + "title": "Profit or Loss From Business (Sole Proprietorship)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4136", + "title": "Credit for Federal Tax Paid on Fuels", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4835", + "title": "Farm Rental Income and Expenses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4868 (sp)", + "title": "Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 6251", + "title": "Alternative Minimum Tax - Individuals", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 709", + "title": "United States Gift (and Generation - Skipping Transfer) Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8453-EMP", + "title": "E-file Declaration for Employment Tax Returns", + "revision": "Apr 2027", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8881", + "title": "Credits for Small Employer Pension Plan Startup Costs, Contributions, Auto-Enrollment, and Military Spouse Participation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-28" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040-NR (Schedule A)", + "title": "Itemized Deductions", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1118", + "title": "Foreign Tax Credit - Corporations", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-L", + "title": "U.S. Life Insurance Company Income Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-PC", + "title": "U.S. Property and Casualty Insurance Company Income Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4952", + "title": "Investment Interest Expense Deduction", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8959", + "title": "Additional Medicare Tax", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8995", + "title": "Qualified Business Income Deduction Simplified Computation", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8995-A", + "title": "Qualified Business Income Deduction", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8995-A (Schedule A)", + "title": "Specified Service Trades or Businesses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-05-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041 (Schedule K-1)", + "title": "Beneficiary's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1066", + "title": "U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1066 (Schedule Q)", + "title": "Quarterly Notice to Residual Interest Holder of REMIC Taxable Income or Net Loss Allocation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120", + "title": "U.S. Corporation Income Tax Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-H", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for Homeowners Associations", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S (Schedule D)", + "title": "Capital Gains and Losses and Built-In Gains", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4562", + "title": "Depreciation (Including Information on Listed Property)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8453-FE", + "title": "U.S. Estate or Trust Declaration for an IRS e-file Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8960", + "title": "Net Investment Income Tax - Individuals, Estates, and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 (Schedule I)", + "title": "Grants and Other Assistance to Organizations, Governments, and Individuals in the United States", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990-T", + "title": "Exempt Organization Business Income Tax Return (and proxy tax under section 6033(e))", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-RIC", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return For Regulated Investment Companies", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for an S Corporation", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5472", + "title": "Information Return of a 25% Foreign Owned U.S. Corporation or a Foreign Corporation Engaged in a U.S. Trade or Business", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8689", + "title": "Allocation of Individual Income Tax to the U.S. Virgin Islands", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8882", + "title": "Employer-Provided Child Care Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction W-9 (sp)", + "title": "Instructions for the Requester of Form W-9, Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-02" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-REIT", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for Real Estate Investment Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8908", + "title": "Energy Efficient Home Credit", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 940 (sp)", + "title": "Employer's Annual Federal Unemployment (FUTA) Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 941 (sp)", + "title": "Employer's QUARTERLY Federal Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Mar 2027", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 (Schedule D)", + "title": "Supplemental Financial Statements", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 8849 (Schedule 6)", + "title": "Instructions for Schedule 6 (Form 8849), Other Claims", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-03" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 2)", + "title": "Additional Taxes", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2210", + "title": "Underpayment of Estimated Tax by Individuals, Estates and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 2555", + "title": "Foreign Earned Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8453", + "title": "U.S. Individual Income Tax Transmittal for an IRS e-file Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 940 (Schedule A) (sp)", + "title": "Multi-State Employer and Credit Reduction Information (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 (Schedule J)", + "title": "Compensation Information", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990-PF", + "title": "Return of Private Foundation or Section 4947(a)(1) Trust Treated as Private Foundation", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-04" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1065", + "title": "U.S. Return of Partnership Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120 (Schedule N)", + "title": "Foreign Operations of U.S. Corporations", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-F (Schedule H)", + "title": "Deductions Allocated to Effectively Connected Income Under Regulations Section 1.861-8", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-F (Schedule I)", + "title": "Interest Expense Allocation Under Regulations Section 1.882-5", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990", + "title": "Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-05" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 1)", + "title": "Additional Income and Adjustments to Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 3)", + "title": "Additional Credits and Payments", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Itemized Deductions", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule EIC)", + "title": "Earned Income Credit Qualifying Child Information", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-F (Schedule M-3)", + "title": "Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation for Foreign Corporations With Reportable Assets of $10 Million or More", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 720", + "title": "Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8839", + "title": "Qualified Adoption Expenses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 56-F", + "title": "Instructions for Form 56-F, Notice Concerning Fiduciary Relationship of Financial Institution", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 720", + "title": "Instructions for Form 720, Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-08" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8966", + "title": "FATCA Report", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-10" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1116 (Schedule B)", + "title": "Foreign Tax Carryover Reconciliation Schedule", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S (Schedule K-2)", + "title": "Shareholders' Pro Rata Share Items-International", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S (Schedule K-3)", + "title": "Shareholder's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc. - International", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 944 (sp)", + "title": "Employer's ANNUAL Federal Tax Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 (Schedule R)", + "title": "Related Organizations and Unrelated Partnerships", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-11" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1042-S", + "title": "Foreign Person's U.S. Source Income Subject to Withholding", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-06-12" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5498", + "title": "IRA Contribution Information", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-12" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8879", + "title": "IRS e-file Signature Authorization", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-12" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1098-E", + "title": "Student Loan Interest Statement", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-06-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8835", + "title": "Renewable Electricity Production Credit", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-15" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 1) (sp)", + "title": "Additional Income and Adjustments to Income (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-16" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 2) (sp)", + "title": "Additional Taxes (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-16" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1098", + "title": "Mortgage Interest Statement", + "revision": "Dec 2027", + "posted": "2026-06-16" + }, + { + "product": "Form 461", + "title": "Limitation on Business Losses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-16" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8453 (sp)", + "title": "U.S. Individual Income Tax Transmittal for an IRS e-file Return (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-16" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1040 (Schedule 3) (sp)", + "title": "Additional Credits and Payments (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1065 (Schedule K-2)", + "title": "Partners' Distributive Share Items - International", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1065 (Schedule K-3)", + "title": "Partner's Share of Income, Deductions, Credits, etc. - International", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-C", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for Cooperative Associations", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 13930", + "title": "Central Withholding Agreement Application", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8804 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Penalty for Underpayment of Estimated Section 1446 Tax by Partnerships", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990-T (Schedule A)", + "title": "Unrelated Business Taxable Income from an Unrelated Trade or Business", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-R and 5498", + "title": "Instructions for Forms 1099-R and 5498", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 8849 (Schedule 6)", + "title": "Instructions for Schedule 6 (Form 8849), Other Claims", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-17" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8801", + "title": "Credit For Prior Year Minimum Tax--Individuals, Estates, and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8804-C", + "title": "Certificate of Partner-Level Items to Reduce Section 1446 Withholding", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8992 (Schedule A)", + "title": "Schedule of Controlled Foreign Corporation (CFC/Foreign Controlled Foreign Corporation (FCFC)) Information To Compute Net CFC Tested Income (NCTI)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990-T (Schedule A)", + "title": "Unrelated Business Taxable Income From an Unrelated Trade or Business", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1045", + "title": "Instructions for Form 1045, Application for Tentative Refund", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-R and 5498", + "title": "Instructions for Forms 1099-R and 5498, Distributions From Pensions, Annuities, Retirement or Profit-Sharing Plans, IRAs, Insurance Contracts, etc.", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-18" + }, + { + "product": "Form 720", + "title": "Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 720-X", + "title": "Amended Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8809", + "title": "Application for Extension of Time to File Information Returns", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-22" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1045", + "title": "Application for Tentative Refund", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-X", + "title": "Amended U.S. Corporation Income Tax Return", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 4562-B", + "title": "Amortization", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 6252", + "title": "Installment Sale Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-23" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 720", + "title": "Instructions for Form 720, Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-23" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1098-T", + "title": "Tuition Statement", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-06-24" + }, + { + "product": "Form 5227", + "title": "Split-Interest Trust Information Return", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-25" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 (Schedule C)", + "title": "Political Campaign and Lobbying Activities", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-25" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1099-MISC and 1099-NEC", + "title": "Instructions for Forms 1099-MISC and 1099-NEC, Miscellaneous Infomation and Nonemployee Compensation", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-25" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1120-S", + "title": "U.S. Income Tax Return for an S Corporation", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 990 or 990-EZ (Sch L)", + "title": "Transactions with Interested Persons", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-26" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 720-X", + "title": "Instructions for Form 720-X", + "revision": "Jun 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-26" + }, + { + "product": "Form 1041-V", + "title": "Payment Voucher for Estates and Trusts", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-29" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8615", + "title": "Tax for Certain Children Who Have Unearned Income", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8879 (sp)", + "title": "IRS e-file Signature Authorization (Spanish Version)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 8990", + "title": "Limitation on Business Interest Expense Under Section 163(j)", + "revision": "Dec 2026", + "posted": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 8941", + "title": "Instructions for Form 8941, Credit for Small Employer Health Insurance Premiums", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "product": "Form 3903", + "title": "Moving Expenses", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-07-01" + }, + { + "product": "Form W-3 (PR) (en-sp)", + "title": "Transmittal of Withholding Statements (Puerto Rico Version) (Puerto Rico Version)", + "revision": "2027", + "posted": "2026-07-01" + } + ], + "tax_table_products_listed_on_or_before_freeze": [], + "tax_table_products_listed_in_later_captures": [], + "tax_table_products_listed_on_read_date": [ + { + "product": "Publication 1040", + "title": "Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables", + "revision": "2026", + "posted": "2026-09-16" + }, + { + "product": "Instruction 1040", + "title": "Instructions for Form 1040 (and Form 1040-SR)", + "revision": "2025", + "posted": "2026-02-26" + } + ], + "captures": [ + { + "captured_utc": "2026-05-20T01:47Z", + "page": 0, + "address": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260520014706id_/https://www.irs.gov/draft-tax-forms", + "sha256": 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The whole documents are not in this repository; `sources.json` lists each one with its address, its sha256 and the dates it carries. The two Tax Tables are the exception: `irs_tax_table_2025.csv` and `irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv` hold every amount of each, because the tests compare against them. + +Each excerpt is verbatim. `scripts/law_sources.py` checks every block quote below against the text extraction named in the comment above it, after removing line-break hyphens and collapsing white space, and records the result in `excerpts_check.json`. A worksheet line is given without its dot leaders. + +## The statute + +### 26 U.S.C. 3(a) to (c): the Tax Table tax is imposed in place of the section 1 tax + + +> In lieu of the tax imposed by section 1, there is hereby imposed for each taxable year on the taxable income of every individual— +> (A) who does not itemize his deductions for the taxable year, and +> (B) whose taxable income for such taxable year does not exceed the ceiling amount, +> a tax determined under tables, applicable to such taxable year, which shall be prescribed by the Secretary and which shall be in such form as he determines appropriate. In the table so prescribed, the amounts of the tax shall be computed on the basis of the rates prescribed by section 1. + + +> For purposes of paragraph (1), the term "ceiling amount" means, with respect to any taxpayer, the amount (not less than $20,000) determined by the Secretary for the tax rate category in which such taxpayer falls. + + +> The Secretary may provide that this section shall apply also for any taxable year to individuals who itemize their deductions. Any tables prescribed under the preceding sentence shall be on the basis of taxable income. + + +> For purposes of this title, the tax imposed by this section shall be treated as tax imposed by section 1. + +The section was last amended by Pub. L. 99–514 (1986); its source credit ends there: + + +> Pub. L. 99–514, title I, §§102(b), 141(b)(1), Oct. 22, 1986, 100 Stat. 2102, 2117.) + +Section 4, which held the rules for the elective tax table of the 1954 Code, is repealed: + + +> [§4. Repealed. Pub. L. 94–455, title V, §501(b)(1), Oct. 4, 1976, 90 Stat. 1558] + +### 26 U.S.C. 1: the rate schedule, and how capital gain rates refer to it + + +> Not later than December 15 of 1993, and each subsequent calendar year, the Secretary shall prescribe tables which shall apply in lieu of the tables contained in subsections (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) with respect to taxable years beginning in the succeeding calendar year. + +Those are the rate schedules, which the revenue procedure below gives for 2026. They are not the Tax Table of section 3. + + +> If a taxpayer has a net capital gain for any taxable year, the tax imposed by this section for such taxable year shall not exceed the sum of— +> (A) a tax computed at the rates and in the same manner as if this subsection had not been enacted on the greater of— +> (i) taxable income reduced by the net capital gain; or + +The edition read (United States Code, 2024 Edition, the most recent on govinfo.gov on 2026-10-10) predates Pub. L. 119–21. Its section 1(j) still ends with 2025: + + +> In the case of a taxable year beginning after December 31, 2017, and before January 1, 2026— + +Pub. L. 119–21 removed the end date, so the section 1(j) tables govern 2026: + + +> (a) In General.-- <> Section 1(j) is amended-- +> (1) in paragraph (1), by striking ``, and before January 1, 2026'', and + +It does not amend section 3 (no amendment to "Section 3(a)" or to "tax tables for individuals" appears in its text). + +### 26 U.S.C. 6102: whole-dollar amounts are the filer's option + + +> Any person making a return, statement, or other document shall be allowed, under regulations prescribed by the Secretary, to make such return, statement, or other document without regard to subsection (a). + + +> The provisions of subsections (a) and (b) shall not be applicable to items which must be taken into account in making the computations necessary to determine the amount required to be shown on a form, but shall be applicable only to such final amount. + +### 26 CFR 1.3-1: the regulation still describes the pre-1977 elective table + + +> For taxable years beginning after December 31, 1970 an individual whose adjusted gross income is less than $10,000 (or a husband and wife filing a joint return whose combined adjusted gross income is less than $10,000) may elect to pay the tax imposed by section 3 as amended in place of the tax imposed by section 1 as amended. + +It says nothing about today's table, its ceiling or how its amounts are computed. The prescription in force is the instructions'. + +## The 2026 rates + +### Rev. Proc. 2025-32, section 4.01 (PDF dated 2025-10-17) + + +> .01 Tax Rate Tables. For taxable years beginning in 2026, the tax rate tables under § 1 are as follows: + + +> TABLE 3 - Section 1(j)(2)(C) – Unmarried Individuals (other than Surviving Spouses and Heads of Households) + +The four individual tables, as read (thresholds; rates of 10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35 and 37 percent): + +| Table | Brackets end at | +|---|---| +| 1, married filing jointly and surviving spouses | $24,800; $100,800; $211,400; $403,550; $512,450; $768,700 | +| 2, heads of households | $17,700; $67,450; $105,700; $201,750; $256,200; $640,600 | +| 3, unmarried individuals | $12,400; $50,400; $105,700; $201,775; $256,225; $640,600 | +| 4, married filing separately | $12,400; $50,400; $105,700; $201,775; $256,225; $384,350 | + +`scripts/law_sources.py` reads these amounts out of the extraction and compares them with `scripts/tax_table.py`; so does it for the 2025 tables of Rev. Proc. 2024-40, section 3.01 (PDF dated 2024-10-22). + +The IRS announced the procedure on October 9, 2025: + + +> IR-2025-103, Oct. 9, 2025 + +### 2026 Form 1040-ES: a 2026 computation the IRS published before the freeze, for estimated tax + +IRS.gov lists the form as posted 02/13/2026 (its PDF is dated 2026-02-12): + + +> Form 1040-ES Estimated Tax For Individuals 2026 02/13/2026 + +It figures estimated tax, not the tax on a return, and says so: + + +> Tax. Figure your tax on the amount on line 3 by using the 2026 Tax Rate Schedules. + + +> Caution: Don’t use these Tax Rate Schedules to figure your 2025 taxes. Use only to figure your 2026 estimated taxes. + +## The instructions: who must use the Tax Table + +### 2025 Instructions for Form 1040, line 16 (PDF dated 2026-02-25, the current revision) + + +> Tax Table or Tax Computation Worksheet. If your taxable income is less than $100,000, you must use the Tax Table, later in these instructions, to figure your tax. Be sure you use the correct column. If your taxable income is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet right after the Tax Table. + + +> However, don’t use the Tax Table or Tax Computation Worksheet to figure your tax if any of the following applies. + +Five methods follow. Each is named here by its opening words: + + +> Form 8615. Form 8615 must generally be used to figure the tax on your unearned income over $2,700 if you are under age 18, and in certain situations if you are older. + + +> Schedule D Tax Worksheet. Use the Schedule D Tax Worksheet in the Instructions for Schedule D to figure the amount to enter on Form 1040 or 1040-SR, line 16, if: + + +> Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet. Use the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet, later, to figure your tax if you don’t have to use the Schedule D Tax Worksheet and if any of the following applies. + + +> Schedule J. If you had income from farming or fishing, your tax may be less if you choose to figure it using income averaging on Schedule J. + + +> Foreign Earned Income Tax Worksheet. If you claimed the foreign earned income exclusion, housing exclusion, or housing deduction on Form 2555, you must figure your tax using the Foreign Earned Income Tax Worksheet. + +The two capital gain worksheets and the foreign earned income worksheet send their own look-ups back to the Tax Table (below). Form 8615 and Schedule J themselves were not read for this audit, and policyengine-us 2.38.6 computes neither: its federal code has no Form 8615 tax and no income averaging. The line 16 instructions do say who must file Form 8615: + + +> You must file Form 8615 if you meet all of the following conditions. + + +> 3. You were either: +> a. Under age 18 at the end of 2025, +> b. Age 18 at the end of 2025 and didn’t have earned income that was more than half of your support, or +> c. A full-time student at least age 19 but under age 24 at the end of 2025 and didn’t have earned income that was more than half of your support. + + +> 4. At least one of your parents was alive at the end of 2025. + +So a filer who is 24 or older does not file it. One aged 19 to 23 files it only as a full-time student with a living parent, among the other conditions. + +The instruction draws no line between filers who itemize and filers who do not. + +### The Tax Table's own example and footnote + + +> Example. A married couple is filing a joint return. Their taxable income on Form 1040, line 15, is $25,300. First, they find the $25,300-25,350 taxable income line. Next, they find the column for married filing jointly and read down the column. The amount shown where the taxable income line and filing status column meet is $2,562. This is the tax amount they should enter in the entry space on Form 1040, line 16. + + +> This column must also be used by a qualifying surviving spouse. + +### Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet, lines 22 and 24 + + +> Figure the tax on the amount on line 5. If the amount on line 5 is less than $100,000, use the Tax Table to figure the tax. If the amount on line 5 is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet + + +> Figure the tax on the amount on line 1. If the amount on line 1 is less than $100,000, use the Tax Table to figure the tax. If the amount on line 1 is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet + +### Schedule D Tax Worksheet, lines 44 and 46 (2025 Instructions for Schedule D, PDF dated 2025-12-11) + + +> Figure the tax on the amount on line 21. If the amount on line 21 is less than $100,000, use the Tax Table to figure the tax. If the amount on line 21 is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet + + +> Figure the tax on the amount on line 1. If the amount on line 1 is less than $100,000, use the Tax Table to figure the tax. If the amount on line 1 is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet + +### Foreign Earned Income Tax Worksheet, line 5 + + +> Figure the tax on the amount on line 2c. If the amount on line 2c is less than $100,000, use the Tax Table to figure this tax. If the amount on line 2c is $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet + +No benchmark household claims the exclusion. + +### Tax Computation Worksheet (the method at $100,000 or more) + + +> Section A—Use if your filing status is Single. Complete the row below that applies to you. + +Each row multiplies the amount by the bracket's rate and subtracts a fixed amount, which is the rate schedule exactly. For 2025 the first single row is "At least $100,000 but not over $103,350", times 22%, less $5,086.00. + +### Rounding + + +> You can round off cents to whole dollars on your return and schedules. If you do round to whole dollars, you must round all amounts. To round, drop amounts under 50 cents and increase amounts from 50 to 99 cents to the next dollar. + +## The 2026 Tax Table + +No 2026 Tax Table dated or posted before PolicyBench froze its references on 2026-07-03 was found. That is a statement about a search, which covered: + +- **The final table.** On 2026-10-10, IRS.gov's listing of current forms and publications gives Publication 1040 at its 2025 revision, and the address `irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040gi.pdf` serves the 2025 Instructions for Form 1040. The address `irs.gov/pub/irs-dft/i1040gi--dft.pdf` holds the 2025 instructions' own draft cover. + + +> Publication 1040 Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables 2025 01/15/2026 + +- **The draft.** The earliest 2026 table found is the IRS's early release draft of Publication 1040 (2026), "Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables". Its cover carries the date Aug 28, 2026 (the PDF was created that day and modified 2026-09-16), and IRS.gov/DraftForms lists it as posted 09/16/2026. Every page is marked as a draft. +- **The draft listing before the freeze.** The Internet Archive holds copies of IRS.gov's draft listing, which shows 25 drafts to a page with the newest posting first. Fourteen copies captured from 2026-05-20 to 2026-07-03, the last at 08:09 UTC on the freeze day, show 251 distinct drafts posted from 03/23/2026 to 07/01/2026. None is a Publication 1040, the Instructions for Form 1040 or a tax table. Four copies captured from 2026-07-24 to 2026-09-10 show none either. `draft_listing_history.json` has each capture's address, sha256 and range of posting dates. + +What the search does not cover: a draft posted before 03/23/2026, or on a day whose listing page was not archived (06/09/2026 is one), and replaced since. The listing shows a draft once, at its latest posting. The captures are single pages of a listing that held 1,215 to 1,219 drafts over those weeks, so they sample it; the dates above are the earliest and latest postings on the captured pages. `draft_listing_history.json` lists the 251 rows. + + +> Caution: DRAFT—NOT FOR FILING + + +> This is an early release draft of an IRS tax form, instructions, or publication, which the IRS is providing for your information. Do not file draft forms. + + +> Drafts of instructions and publications usually have some additional changes before their final release. + + +> Example. A married couple is filing a joint return. Their taxable income on Form 1040, line 15, is $25,300. First, they find the $25,300–25,350 taxable income line. Next, they find the column for married filing jointly and read down the column. The amount shown where the taxable income line and filing status column meet is $2,543. + +The draft keeps the $100,000 ceiling: its 2026 Tax Computation Worksheet begins each section at "At least $100,000", and its single row subtracts $5,288.00 at 22%, which is Rev. Proc. 2025-32's Table 3 ($5,800 plus 22% of the excess over $50,400). + + +> Publication 1040 Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables 2026 09/16/2026 + +## What no document read states + +None of the documents above was found to say how the IRS computes a Tax Table amount. The line 16 instructions, the Tax Table's heading, example and footnote, and the Tax Computation Worksheet were read, and every extraction was searched for "midpoint", "mid-point" and "middle": the 2025 instructions, both Publications 1040, the Schedule D instructions, Form 1040-ES and both revenue procedures. The only hits are "middle initial" on Form 1040-ES's payment vouchers. A description in other words, somewhere unread, would not have been caught. Section 3(a)(1) requires only that the amounts be "computed on the basis of the rates prescribed by section 1". The rule in `scripts/tax_table.py` (the tax on the band's midpoint, rounded to a dollar, a half rounding up) is inferred, and it reproduces all 8,248 amounts of the 2025 table and all 8,248 of the 2026 draft. diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/excerpts_check.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/excerpts_check.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6236b1bc --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/law/excerpts_check.json @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +{ + "read_on": "2026-10-10", + "excerpts": 44, + "excerpts_found": 44, + "excerpts_not_found": [], + "by_source": { + "ecfr_1.3-1.txt": 1, + "f1040es.raw.txt": 2, + "govinfo_usc26_1.txt": 3, + "govinfo_usc26_3.txt": 5, + "govinfo_usc26_4.txt": 1, + "govinfo_usc26_6102.txt": 2, + "i1040gi.raw.txt": 17, + "i1040sd.raw.txt": 2, + "irs_drafts_1040.txt": 1, + "irs_forms_1040es.txt": 1, + "irs_forms_p1040.txt": 1, + "irs_news_2026_adjustments.txt": 1, + "p1040_dft.raw.txt": 4, + "plaw119-21.txt": 1, + "rp-25-32.raw.txt": 2 + }, + "rate_tables_equal_to_tax_table_py": { + "2025 joint": true, + "2025 head_of_household": true, + "2025 single": true, + "2025 separate": true, + "2026 joint": true, + "2026 head_of_household": true, + "2026 single": true, + "2026 separate": true + }, + "tax_tables": { + "2025": { + "publication": "p1040_2025.raw.txt", + "csv": "irs_tax_table_2025.csv", + "csv_sha256": "28413dd5b1b475731c4025e2df95a1a015170b096a40c7e4051afb494a910703", + "parse_equals_committed_csv": true, + "amounts": 8248, + "amounts_equal_to_constructed_table": 8248 + }, + "2026": { + "publication": "p1040_dft.raw.txt", + "csv": "irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv", + "csv_sha256": "7ea5ce5678132f9f5e78130412566d407fbcd5584e76093b2da713a71d31b493", + "parse_equals_committed_csv": true, + "amounts": 8248, + "amounts_equal_to_constructed_table": 8248 + } + }, + "occurrences_of_midpoint_or_middle": { + "i1040gi.raw.txt": 0, + "i1040sd.raw.txt": 0, + "p1040_2025.raw.txt": 0, + "p1040_dft.raw.txt": 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Band widths are as the lane read them and were not rechecked.", + "states": [ + { + "state": "NC", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.25%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "To calculate your North Carolina income tax, multiply Line 14 by the income tax rate of 4.25% (0.0425).", + "url": "https://www.ncdor.gov/2025-d-401-individual-income-tax-instructions/open" + }, + { + "state": "CA", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$100 ($50 first row)", + "quote": "Tax Table – If your taxable income on line 19 is $100,000 or less, use the tax table.", + "url": "https://www.ftb.ca.gov/forms/2025/2025-540-booklet.html", + "note": "The research lane could not open ftb.ca.gov; the quotation was read from the 2025 Form 540 booklet on 2026-10-10." + }, + { + "state": "NJ", + "tax_year": "2018 table (posted by Treasury for 2018 and later)", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "optional on the Division's rates page; the table's own heading says 'Use this table'", + "band_width": "$50", + "quote": "Use this table if your New Jersey taxable income on Line 40 is less than $100,000. If your taxable income is $100,000 or more, you must use the Tax Rate Schedules on page 61.", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/pdf/current/taxtable.pdf", + "second_quote": "If your New Jersey taxable income is less than $100,000, you can use the New Jersey Tax Table or New Jersey Rate Schedules.", + "second_url": "https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/taxtables.shtml" + }, + { + "state": "OH", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: rate schedule only", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "2025 Ohio Income Tax Brackets for Ohio IT 1040", + "url": "https://dam.assets.ohio.gov/image/upload/v1735920104/tax.ohio.gov/forms/ohio_individual/individual/2025/it1040-booklet.pdf", + "note": "The booklet's text never uses the words 'tax table'." + }, + { + "state": "MD", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable net income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$50", + "quote": "You must use the tax tables if your taxable income is less than $100,000.", + "url": "https://www.marylandcomptroller.gov/content/dam/mdcomp/tax/instructions/2025/resident-booklet.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "IN", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 3%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "State adjusted gross income tax: multiply line 7 by 3% (.03)", + "url": "https://forms.in.gov/Download.aspx?id=16914" + }, + { + "state": "NY", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "NYS AGI $107,650 or less and NYS taxable income less than $65,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$50 (narrower in the first rows)", + "quote": "NYS adjusted gross income is $107,650 or less (line 33)", + "url": "https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/file/tax-tables/2025.htm", + "second_quote": "NYS taxable income is less than $65,000 (line 38)", + "second_url": "https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/file/tax-tables/2025.htm" + }, + { + "state": "AZ", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 2.5%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "For tax year 2023 and beyond, there are no optional or X&Y tax tables to post due to Arizona's flat tax rate of 2.5%.", + "url": "https://azdor.gov/forms/individual/form-140-optional-tax-tables" + }, + { + "state": "MI", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.25%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "Multiply line 16 by 4.25% (0", + "url": "https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/-/media/Project/Websites/taxes/Forms/IIT/TY2025/MI-1040.pdf", + "note": "The research lane could not open michigan.gov; the quotation was read from the 2025 Form MI-1040 on 2026-10-10." + }, + { + "state": "VA", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income listed in the table (2025 table ends at $98,356)", + "mandatory": "optional", + "band_width": "variable: about $50 at 2%, about $35 at 5.75%", + "quote": "The tax table can be used if your Virginia taxable income is listed in the table. Otherwise, use the Tax Rate Schedule above.", + "url": "https://www.tax.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/vatax-pdf/tax-table-2025.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "PA", + "tax_year": "current (page not dated)", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 3.07%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "Pennsylvania personal income tax is levied at the rate of 3.07 percent against taxable income", + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/revenue/resources/tax-types-and-information/personal-income-tax" + }, + { + "state": "OK", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$50", + "quote": "Use this table if your taxable income is less than $100,000.", + "url": "https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/tax/documents/forms/individuals/current/511-Pkt.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "MN", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "Form M1 line 9 less than $86,800", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$100 ($20 and $80 in the first rows)", + "quote": "If line 9 of Form M1 is less than $86,800, you must use the tax table on pages 32 through 38.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/sites/default/files/2026-10/m1-inst-25.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "AL", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "mandatory (except NOL carryover or carryback)", + "band_width": "$50 under $1,000, then $100", + "quote": "You must figure your tax from the Tax Tables unless you are claiming a carryover or carryback Net Operating Loss from another year.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.alabama.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/25f40bk.pdf", + "second_quote": "If taxable income is over $100,000, use the following worksheet to figure your tax.", + "second_url": "https://www.revenue.alabama.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/25f40bk.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "IL", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.95%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "Residents: Multiply Line 11 by 4.95% (.0495). Cannot be less than zero.", + "url": "https://tax.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/tax/forms/incometax/documents/currentyear/individual/il-1040.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "CT", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "Connecticut AGI less than or equal to $102,000 (keyed on AGI; exemptions and credits included)", + "mandatory": "optional", + "band_width": "$50", + "quote": "If your Connecticut adjusted gross income is less than or equal to $102,000, you may use the Tax Tables on the DRS website", + "url": "https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/drs/forms/2025/income/2025-ct-1040-instructions_1225.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "WI", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width": "$100 ($20, $20 and $60 in the first rows)", + "quote": "Use this Tax Table if your taxable income is less than $100,000. If $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet on page 44.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.wi.gov/TaxForms2025/2025-Form1-Inst.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "AR", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "net taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "optional; mandatory if itemizing", + "band_width": "$100", + "quote": "You must use this tax table if you itemize your deductions or if you are filing a Fiduciary Tax Return.", + "url": "https://www.dfa.arkansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025_TaxTables.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "ID", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: worksheet, flat 5.3% above $4,811 / $9,622", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "Otherwise, complete the worksheet below to calculate the Idaho tax due.", + "url": "https://tax.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/forms/EIN00046/EIN00046_03-02-2026.pdf" + }, + { + "state": "GA", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "no", + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 5.19%, rounded to nearest dollar", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width": "n.a.", + "quote": "Multiply the amount on Line 15c by 5.19%. Round to nearest dollar.", + "url": "https://dor.georgia.gov/document/document/2025-it-511-individual-income-tax-booklet/download" + }, + { + "state": "WV", + "tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": "yes", + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less (not available to married filing separately)", + "mandatory": "mandatory in effect", + "band_width": "$25 in the first rows, then $100, then $60", + "quote": "If your taxable income is over $100,000 refer to the Tax Rate Schedules on page 35.", + "url": "https://tax.wv.gov/Documents/PIT/2025/it140.TaxTable.2025.pdf" + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/manifest.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/manifest.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cce6e95a --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/manifest.json @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +{ + "release": { + "tag": "dashboard-data-20261010", + "commit": "5a8164a001efb27fa55f47fe7ea26666a0de31f8", + "inputs": { + 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"379ea46c8dde33b80370458b80a68c46c4f2f98877b4edfdf03e049227e627cd", + "bytes": 16679 + }, + "verification/leaderboard_impact.json": { + "sha256": "853b5e93ceb2f0295f75a6a9b0b9dabab791ee1a8de61d13b80acf7a7ab0897f", + "bytes": 9180 + }, + "verification/leaderboard_impact_models.csv": { + "sha256": "cc6eacd4b2078231447e877f1ee8d220cf01e5e5b51d2a014ed264de1b7874ed", + "bytes": 15864 + }, + "verification/model_answers.csv": { + "sha256": "5d9cada906e6a1fd74ab9b31ae8781f1d0a4e22dc7a4162e1b28703b5872efda", + "bytes": 208149 + }, + "verification/model_counts.csv": { + "sha256": "d663a097eedf6911de43e6a1d6699e5860c209a577bbf29d2d5196741fdf475d", + "bytes": 1594 + }, + "verification/state_tax_tables.json": { + "sha256": "2148e00841874c1e723c08c6c1ef0eaaec33a699f4e3857271f384a02eb938d0", + "bytes": 20587 + }, + "verification/sweep_summary.json": { + "sha256": "3c47f5adf0c28cb20b617a9f0f40bd144c1de3c86c54b63b4dbf33c121ff6322", + "bytes": 3268 + }, + "verification/sweep_tax_table.csv": { + "sha256": "da81c11c174ba9ba284d36a999c5241d548d7a5ee79ccb4ce73c9cb8f2b994f9", + "bytes": 176834 + }, + "verification/tax_units.csv": { + "sha256": "337b326db0e30f59283a463796028d944c5f0eb18b616e653ee6383101a55324", + "bytes": 25150 + }, + "verification/top_rate_detection.json": { + "sha256": "85ae66ca3528d14e658e639c3b62485591f703c57a04481de379df826fc84638", + "bytes": 242 + } + } +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/build_manifest.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/build_manifest.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b6ec7618 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/build_manifest.py @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +"""Write manifest.json: the sha256 of every evidence file in this directory. + +The manifest pins the release's inputs (as scripts/release.py reads them from +git), the engine the sweep ran on, and every file here except README.md, the +manifest itself and the logs of the test runs that check it. +tests/test_tax_table_audit.py rebuilds it and compares. + + uv run python reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/build_manifest.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import json +from pathlib import Path + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ENGINE = { + "package": "policyengine-us", + "version": "2.38.6", + "policyengine_core": "3.32.29", + "role": "the release's own engine, as uv.lock pins it", +} +# The README, the manifest itself, and the logs of the test runs that check it. +UNPINNED = { + "README.md", + "manifest.json", + "verification/pytest_tax_table_audit.txt", + "verification/mutants_tax_table.txt", +} + + +def _release(): + path = Path(__file__).with_name("release.py") + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("tax_table_manifest_release", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def manifest() -> dict: + release = _release() + files = {} + for path in sorted(HERE.rglob("*")): + inside = path.relative_to(HERE) + relative = inside.as_posix() + # Bytecode caches and a file manager's dot files are not evidence. + hidden = any(p.startswith(".") or p == "__pycache__" for p in inside.parts) + if not path.is_file() or relative in UNPINNED or hidden: + continue + data = path.read_bytes() + files[relative] = { + "sha256": hashlib.sha256(data).hexdigest(), + "bytes": len(data), + } + return { + "release": { + "tag": release.RELEASE, + "commit": release.RELEASE_COMMIT, + "inputs": { + f"{release.RUN}/{name}": digest + for name, digest in release.SHA256.items() + }, + }, + "engine": ENGINE, + "files": files, + } + + +def main() -> None: + out = HERE / "manifest.json" + out.write_text(json.dumps(manifest(), indent=2) + "\n") + print(f"wrote {out}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/independent_scorer.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/independent_scorer.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bde91562 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/independent_scorer.py @@ -0,0 +1,167 @@ +"""PolicyBench's headline exact rate, computed without the repo's scorer. + +A second implementation of the published headline (the household-equal, +population-weighted exact-match rate), written from the benchmark's stated rule +and reading the run's files directly. It imports nothing from ``policybench``, so +agreement with ``policybench.analysis.weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model`` is a +differential check on both. + +The rule: +- An output is scored unless ``reference_exclusions.json`` lists it. +- An amount answer is exact when it is within $1 of the reference. A 0/1 output + (its group ends in ``_eligible``) is exact when the answer is 0 or 1 and equals + the reference. A missing answer is a miss. +- Each output belongs to a group: its own name, or ``person_`` for a + person's output such as ``head_medicaid_eligible``. Group weights come from the + source population (``policybench/population_weights.json``, household kind), + normalized over the groups present among the scored outputs. +- Inside a household a group's weight is split equally over its scored outputs + and the household's weights are scaled to sum to one. The household's score is + the weighted share of exact outputs. A household with no weight is left out. +- A model's rate is the mean of its household scores, times 100. + +``also_accept`` gives a second accepted value for some outputs: an answer is then +exact when it is exact against either value. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import gzip +import io +import json +import math +from collections import defaultdict +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +WEIGHTS = ROOT / "policybench/population_weights.json" +PERSON_PREFIXES = ("adult", "child", "dependent") +TOLERANCE = 1.0 + + +def group_weights() -> dict[str, float]: + payload = json.loads(WEIGHTS.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + raw = payload["countries"]["us"]["weights"]["household"] + return {group: max(0.0, float(weight)) for group, weight in raw.items()} + + +def output_group(variable: str, groups) -> str: + """``person_`` for a person's output, the output's own name otherwise.""" + suffixes = sorted( + (g[len("person_") :] for g in groups if g.startswith("person_")), + key=len, + reverse=True, + ) + for suffix in suffixes: + marker = f"_{suffix}" + if variable.endswith(marker): + person = variable[: -len(marker)] + if person in ("head", "spouse") or person.startswith(PERSON_PREFIXES): + return f"person_{suffix}" + return variable + + +def is_flag(group: str) -> bool: + return group.endswith("_eligible") + + +def flag(value) -> int | None: + if value == 0.0: + return 0 + if value == 1.0: + return 1 + return None + + +def exact(group: str, reference: float, answer: float | None) -> bool: + if answer is None or math.isnan(answer): + return False + if is_flag(group): + return flag(answer) is not None and flag(answer) == flag(reference) + return abs(reference - answer) <= TOLERANCE + + +def read_reference(run_dir: Path) -> dict[tuple[str, str], float]: + with (run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv").open(newline="") as handle: + rows = list(csv.DictReader(handle)) + record = run_dir / "reference_exclusions.json" + excluded = set() + if record.exists(): + excluded = { + (str(e["scenario_id"]), str(e["variable"])) + for e in json.loads(record.read_text())["exclusions"] + } + reference = {} + for row in rows: + key = (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) + if key in reference: + raise ValueError(f"duplicate reference {key}") + if key not in excluded: + reference[key] = float(row["value"]) + return reference + + +def read_answers(run_dir: Path) -> dict[str, dict[tuple[str, str], float | None]]: + raw = gzip.decompress((run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz").read_bytes()) + answers: dict[str, dict] = defaultdict(dict) + csv.field_size_limit(1 << 30) + for row in csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(raw.decode("utf-8"), newline="")): + key = (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) + if key in answers[row["model"]]: + raise ValueError(f"duplicate answer {row['model']} {key}") + text = row["prediction"].strip() + answers[row["model"]][key] = float(text) if text else None + return answers + + +def row_weights(reference: dict) -> dict[tuple[str, str], float]: + """Each scored output's weight inside its household (weights sum to one).""" + weights = group_weights() + groups = {key: output_group(key[1], weights) for key in reference} + present = set(groups.values()) + missing = present - set(weights) + if missing: + raise ValueError(f"no population weight for {sorted(missing)}") + total = sum(weights[g] for g in present) + counts: dict[tuple[str, str], int] = defaultdict(int) + for (scenario, _), group in groups.items(): + counts[(scenario, group)] += 1 + raw = { + key: weights[group] / total / counts[(key[0], group)] + for key, group in groups.items() + } + sums: dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float) + for (scenario, _), weight in raw.items(): + sums[scenario] += weight + return { + key: weight / sums[key[0]] for key, weight in raw.items() if sums[key[0]] > 0 + } + + +def rates( + reference: dict, answers: dict, also_accept: dict | None = None +) -> dict[str, float]: + """Each model's headline exact rate, in percent, from loaded data.""" + weights = row_weights(reference) + known = group_weights() + group_of = {key: output_group(key[1], known) for key in reference} + households = sorted({scenario for scenario, _ in weights}) + out = {} + for model, given in answers.items(): + scores = dict.fromkeys(households, 0.0) + for key, weight in weights.items(): + answer = given.get(key) + hit = exact(group_of[key], reference[key], answer) + if not hit and also_accept and key in also_accept: + hit = exact(group_of[key], float(also_accept[key]), answer) + if hit: + scores[key[0]] += weight + out[model] = 100 * math.fsum(scores.values()) / len(households) + return out + + +def exact_rates(run_dir: Path, also_accept: dict | None = None) -> dict[str, float]: + """Each model's headline exact rate, in percent, from a run directory.""" + run_dir = Path(run_dir) + return rates(read_reference(run_dir), read_answers(run_dir), also_accept) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/law_sources.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/law_sources.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7c48ea3e --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/law_sources.py @@ -0,0 +1,606 @@ +"""Record the law documents read and check the committed excerpts against them. + +The documents themselves are not committed (law/sources.json gives each one's +address and sha256). Given the directory they were saved in, this script + +1. extracts text (``pdftotext -raw`` for the PDFs; tags stripped from the HTML + and XML), so every check runs on text made the same way; +2. writes law/sources.json: each document's address, what it is used for, the + dates its PDF carries, and the sha256 and size of the saved file and of its + extraction; +3. checks every block quote of law/excerpts.md against the extraction its + ```` comment names, after removing line-break hyphens and + collapsing white space, and writes law/excerpts_check.json; +4. reads the 2025 and 2026 rate tables out of the two revenue procedures and + compares thresholds, rates and base amounts with scripts/tax_table.py; +5. re-parses both Publications 1040 and compares with the committed CSVs; +6. confirms that no IRS document read uses the word "midpoint" or "middle" + (other than "middle initial" on Form 1040-ES's vouchers). A description in + other words would not be caught; +7. reads archived copies of IRS.gov's draft-forms listing (Internet Archive + captures from before and after the 2026-07-03 freeze) and writes + law/draft_listing_history.json: which posting dates the captures cover, and + whether any listed draft is a Publication 1040, the Instructions for Form + 1040 or a tax table. + + python3 -I reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/law_sources.py \\ + --law-dir ~/reviews/policybench-tax-table-2026-10-10/law + +Standard library only (and poppler's pdftotext and pdfinfo on PATH). It loads +its two sibling modules by path, so it runs under ``python3 -I``. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import hashlib +import html +import importlib.util +import io +import json +import re +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +LAW = HERE / "law" +READ_ON = "2026-10-10" + +SOURCES = [ + { + "document": "26 U.S.C. 3 (United States Code, 2024 Edition)", + "used_for": "the Tax Table tax is imposed in lieu of the section 1 tax", + "saved_from": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleA-chap1-subchapA-partI-sec3.htm", + "file": "govinfo_usc26_3.htm", + }, + { + "document": "26 U.S.C. 4 (United States Code, 2024 Edition)", + "used_for": "the rules for the elective table are repealed", + "saved_from": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleA-chap1-subchapA-partI-sec4.htm", + "file": "govinfo_usc26_4.htm", + }, + { + "document": "26 U.S.C. 1 (United States Code, 2024 Edition)", + "used_for": "the rate schedules; section 1(h)'s reference to them", + "saved_from": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleA-chap1-subchapA-partI-sec1.htm", + "file": "govinfo_usc26_1.htm", + "note": ( + "govinfo's most recent edition on the day read " + "(govinfo.gov/link/uscode/26/1?type=usc&year=mostrecent returned the same " + "bytes). uscode.house.gov, which carries later amendments, was under " + "maintenance." + ), + }, + { + "document": "26 U.S.C. 6102 (United States Code, 2024 Edition)", + "used_for": "whole-dollar amounts are the filer's option", + "saved_from": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleF-chap61-subchapB-sec6102.htm", + "file": "govinfo_usc26_6102.htm", + }, + { + "document": "Pub. L. 119-21, section 70101", + "used_for": "the section 1(j) rate tables continue after 2025", + "saved_from": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ21/html/PLAW-119publ21.htm", + "file": "plaw119-21.htm", + }, + { + "document": "26 CFR 1.3-1 (eCFR, as of 2026-07-01)", + "used_for": "the regulation predates the present table", + "saved_from": "https://www.ecfr.gov/api/versioner/v1/full/2026-07-01/title-26.xml?part=1§ion=1.3-1", + "file": "ecfr_1.3-1.xml", + }, + { + "document": "Rev. Proc. 2025-32", + "used_for": "the 2026 rate tables (section 4.01)", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-25-32.pdf", + "file": "rp-25-32.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "Rev. Proc. 2024-40", + "used_for": "the 2025 rate tables (section 3.01), for the check on the 2025 table", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-24-40.pdf", + "file": "rp-24-40.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "2026 Form 1040-ES", + "used_for": "the IRS's 2026 Tax Rate Schedules, published before the freeze", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040es.pdf", + "file": "f1040es.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "2025 Instructions for Form 1040 (and 1040-SR)", + "used_for": "line 16; the capital gain worksheet; rounding; the Tax Table", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040gi.pdf", + "file": "i1040gi.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "2025 Instructions for Schedule D (Form 1040)", + "used_for": "the Schedule D Tax Worksheet, lines 44 and 46", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf", + "file": "i1040sd.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "Publication 1040 (2025), Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables", + "used_for": "the published 2025 Tax Table (law/irs_tax_table_2025.csv)", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/p1040--2025.pdf", + "file": "p1040_2025.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "Publication 1040 (2026), early release draft", + "used_for": "the draft 2026 Tax Table (law/irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv)", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-dft/p1040--dft.pdf", + "file": "p1040_dft.pdf", + }, + { + "document": "IRS.gov draft tax forms listing, search '1040'", + "used_for": "the date the draft Publication 1040 (2026) was posted", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/draft-tax-forms?find=1040&items_per_page=200", + "file": "irs_drafts_1040.html", + }, + { + "document": "IRS.gov forms, instructions and publications listing, search 'Publication 1040'", + "used_for": "the current final Publication 1040 is the 2025 revision", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications?find=Publication+1040&items_per_page=200", + "file": "irs_forms_p1040.html", + }, + { + "document": "IRS.gov forms, instructions and publications listing, search '1040-ES'", + "used_for": "the date the 2026 Form 1040-ES was posted", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications?find=1040-ES&items_per_page=200", + "file": "irs_forms_1040es.html", + }, + { + "document": "IRS news release IR-2025-103", + "used_for": "the date the IRS announced Rev. Proc. 2025-32", + "saved_from": "https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-releases-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2026-including-amendments-from-the-one-big-beautiful-bill", + "file": "irs_news_2026_adjustments.html", + }, +] +FREEZE = "2026-07-03" +LISTING = "https://www.irs.gov/draft-tax-forms" +# Internet Archive captures of the listing (capture time in UTC, page, saved as). +# Each page holds 25 drafts, newest posting first; page 0 is the first. +ARCHIVED_LISTINGS = [ + ("20260520014706", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260520_p0.html"), + ("20260527224622", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260527_p0.html"), + ("20260605135701", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260605_p0.html"), + ("20260606195555", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260606_p0.html"), + ("20260614191000", 1, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p1.html"), + ("20260614191329", 2, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p2.html"), + ("20260614191635", 3, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p3.html"), + ("20260614191701", 4, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p4.html"), + ("20260614192542", 6, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p6.html"), + ("20260614192754", 7, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p7.html"), + ("20260614193027", 8, "wayback/drafts_20260614_p8.html"), + ("20260617214824", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260617_p0.html"), + ("20260623160616", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260623_p0.html"), + ("20260703080914", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260703_p0.html"), + ("20260724143117", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260724_p0.html"), + ("20260808055206", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260808_p0.html"), + ("20260908012431", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260908_p0.html"), + ("20260910205726", 0, "wayback/drafts_20260910_p0.html"), +] +IRS_TEXTS = ( + "i1040gi.raw.txt", + "i1040sd.raw.txt", + "p1040_2025.raw.txt", + "p1040_dft.raw.txt", + "f1040es.raw.txt", + "rp-25-32.raw.txt", + "rp-24-40.raw.txt", +) +REV_PROCS = {2025: "rp-24-40.pdf", 2026: "rp-25-32.pdf"} +TABLE_STATUS = {1: "joint", 2: "head_of_household", 3: "single", 4: "separate"} +TABLES = {2025: "irs_tax_table_2025.csv", 2026: "irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv"} +PUBLICATIONS = {2025: "p1040_2025.raw.txt", 2026: "p1040_dft.raw.txt"} + + +def sha256(data: bytes) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(data).hexdigest() + + +def load(name: str): + path = Path(__file__).with_name(f"{name}.py") + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(f"law_sources_{name}", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def markup_text(raw: str) -> str: + """The text of an HTML or XML document, one block per line.""" + text = re.sub(r"|", " ", raw, flags=re.S) + text = re.sub(r"|

|

||||", "\n", text) + text = html.unescape(re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", text)) + text = re.sub(r"[ \t]+", " ", text) + return re.sub(r"\n\s*\n+", "\n", text) + + +def extraction_name(file: str) -> str: + stem, suffix = file.rsplit(".", 1) + return f"{stem}.raw.txt" if suffix == "pdf" else f"{stem}.txt" + + +def extract(law_dir: Path, file: str) -> Path: + source = law_dir / file + target = law_dir / extraction_name(file) + if file.endswith(".pdf"): + subprocess.run(["pdftotext", "-raw", str(source), str(target)], check=True) + else: + raw = source.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace") + target.write_text(markup_text(raw), encoding="utf-8") + return target + + +def pdf_dates(path: Path) -> dict: + out = subprocess.run(["pdfinfo", str(path)], capture_output=True, text=True).stdout + found = dict( + line.split(":", 1) for line in out.splitlines() if ":" in line + ) + return { + key: found[name].strip() + for key, name in ( + ("title", "Title"), + ("created", "CreationDate"), + ("modified", "ModDate"), + ("pages", "Pages"), + ) + if name in found + } + + +def normalize(text: str) -> str: + """Join words broken at a line end, then collapse white space.""" + text = text.replace("­", "") + text = re.sub(r"-\s+", "", text) + text = re.sub(r"(?:\.\s?){3,}", " ", text) # worksheet dot leaders + return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", text).strip() + + +def excerpts() -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + """(source file, quoted text) for each block quote of law/excerpts.md.""" + out, source, quote = [], None, [] + lines = (LAW / "excerpts.md").read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines() + for line in [*lines, ""]: + marker = re.match(r"", line) + if line.startswith("> "): + quote.append(line[2:]) + continue + if quote: + if source is None: + raise SystemExit(f"a block quote names no source: {quote[0][:60]}") + out.append((source, "\n".join(quote))) + source, quote = None, [] + if marker: + source = marker.group(1) + return out + + +def rate_tables(layout: str, year: int) -> dict: + """Thresholds, rates and base amounts of Tables 1 to 4 for a tax year. + + Read from the ``pdftotext -layout`` extraction, which keeps each table under + its heading. A table has two columns ("If Taxable Income Is:" and "The Tax + Is:") whose cells wrap over lines, so each line's right-hand text is taken by + position and a table's right-hand column is read as one run of text. + """ + lines = layout.splitlines() + start = next( + i + for i, line in enumerate(lines) + if f"Tax Rate Tables. For taxable years beginning in {year}" in line + ) + right: dict[int, list[str]] = {} + left: dict[int, list[str]] = {} + table = None + for line in lines[start + 1 :]: + heading = re.match(r"\s*TABLE (\d) - Section 1\(j\)\(2\)", line) + if heading: + table = int(heading.group(1)) + if table == 5: + break + continue + if table is None: + continue + for cell in re.finditer(r"\S(?:.*?\S)?(?=\s{3,}|$)", line): + side = right if cell.start() >= 35 else left + side.setdefault(table, []).append(cell.group(0)) + out = {} + for number, status in TABLE_STATUS.items(): + tax = re.sub(r"\s+", " ", " ".join(right[number])) + income = re.sub(r"\s+", " ", " ".join(left[number])) + first = re.search(r"Not over \$([\d,]+)", income) + rate = re.search(r"(\d+)% of the taxable income", tax) + rows = re.findall( + r"\$\s?([\d,]+(?:\.\d\d)?) plus (\d+)% of the excess over \$([\d,]+)", + tax, + ) + dollars = [int(row[2].replace(",", "")) for row in rows] + if len(dollars) != 6 or int(first.group(1).replace(",", "")) != dollars[0]: + raise SystemExit(f"{year} table {number}: not seven closed brackets") + out[status] = { + "thresholds": tuple(dollars), + "rates": (int(rate.group(1)), *(int(row[1]) for row in rows)), + "base_amounts_cents": tuple( + round(float(row[0].replace(",", "")) * 100) for row in rows + ), + } + return out + + +def listing_rows(page: str) -> list[dict]: + """The rows of a draft-forms listing page: product, title, revision, posted.""" + rows = [] + for row in re.findall(r"]*>(.*?)", page, flags=re.S): + cells = [ + re.sub(r"\s+", " ", html.unescape(re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", cell))).strip() + for cell in re.findall(r"]*>(.*?)", row, flags=re.S) + ] + if len(cells) >= 4 and cells[0] != "Product Number": + month, day, year = cells[3].split("/") + rows.append( + { + "product": cells[0], + "title": cells[1], + "revision": cells[2], + "posted": f"{year}-{month}-{day}", + } + ) + return rows + + +def is_tax_table_product(row: dict) -> bool: + return ( + row["product"] in ("Publication 1040", "Instruction 1040") + or row["product"].startswith("Instruction 1040 (Tax") + or "tax table" in row["title"].lower() + or "Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables" in row["title"] + ) + + +def merge(ranges: list[tuple[str, str]]) -> list[list[str]]: + """Posting-date ranges, joined where one starts by the next day after another + ends (ISO dates sort as text; adjacency is checked on the calendar).""" + from datetime import date, timedelta + + merged: list[list[str]] = [] + for first, last in sorted(ranges): + if merged: + end = date.fromisoformat(merged[-1][1]) + if date.fromisoformat(first) <= end + timedelta(days=1): + merged[-1][1] = max(merged[-1][1], last) + continue + merged.append([first, last]) + return merged + + +def draft_listing_history(law_dir: Path) -> dict: + captures, seen = [], {} + for timestamp, page, name in ARCHIVED_LISTINGS: + saved = law_dir / name + rows = listing_rows(saved.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")) + if len(rows) != 25: + raise SystemExit(f"{name}: expected 25 listing rows, read {len(rows)}") + size = re.search( + r"Showing\s+[\d,]+\s*-\s*[\d,]+\s+of\s+([\d,]+)", + re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", saved.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")), + ) + captured = f"{timestamp[:4]}-{timestamp[4:6]}-{timestamp[6:8]}" + query = f"?page={page}" if page else "" + captures.append( + { + "captured_utc": f"{captured}T{timestamp[8:10]}:{timestamp[10:12]}Z", + "page": page, + "address": f"https://web.archive.org/web/{timestamp}id_/{LISTING}{query}", + "sha256": sha256(saved.read_bytes()), + "rows": len(rows), + "drafts_in_the_whole_listing": int(size.group(1).replace(",", "")), + "first_posted": min(row["posted"] for row in rows), + "last_posted": max(row["posted"] for row in rows), + "tax_table_products": [row for row in rows if is_tax_table_product(row)], + "before_freeze": captured <= FREEZE, + } + ) + if captured <= FREEZE: + for row in rows: + seen[tuple(row.values())] = row + before = [c for c in captures if c["before_freeze"]] + current = listing_rows( + (law_dir / "irs_drafts_1040.html").read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace") + ) + return { + "freeze": FREEZE, + "listing": LISTING, + "note": ( + "Each capture is one 25-row page of the whole listing (its size at " + "each capture is recorded below), newest posting first. A draft is listed once, at its latest posting. " + "The captures do not show every draft posted in the period: pages " + "for some days were not archived, and none shows a posting before " + "the earliest date below. A range below is the earliest and latest " + "posting date on the captured pages, not a claim that every draft " + "posted between them is on one." + ), + "captures_on_or_before_freeze": len(before), + "drafts_in_the_whole_listing_on_or_before_freeze": [ + min(c["drafts_in_the_whole_listing"] for c in before), + max(c["drafts_in_the_whole_listing"] for c in before), + ], + "distinct_rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze": len(seen), + "posting_dates_covered_on_or_before_freeze": merge( + [(c["first_posted"], c["last_posted"]) for c in before] + ), + "rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze": sorted( + seen.values(), key=lambda row: (row["posted"], row["product"], row["title"]) + ), + "tax_table_products_listed_on_or_before_freeze": [ + row for c in before for row in c["tax_table_products"] + ], + "tax_table_products_listed_in_later_captures": [ + row for c in captures if not c["before_freeze"] for row in c["tax_table_products"] + ], + "tax_table_products_listed_on_read_date": [ + row for row in current if is_tax_table_product(row) + ], + "captures": captures, + } + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--law-dir", required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + law_dir = Path(args.law_dir).expanduser() + tax_table = load("tax_table") + table_parser = load("parse_irs_tax_table") + + records = [] + for source in SOURCES: + saved = law_dir / source["file"] + text = extract(law_dir, source["file"]) + record = { + key: value for key, value in source.items() if key != "file" + } | { + "read_on": READ_ON, + "saved_file": { + "name": source["file"], + "sha256": sha256(saved.read_bytes()), + "bytes": saved.stat().st_size, + }, + "extraction": { + "name": text.name, + "made_with": ( + "pdftotext -raw" if source["file"].endswith(".pdf") else "tags stripped" + ), + "sha256": sha256(text.read_bytes()), + "bytes": text.stat().st_size, + }, + } + if source["file"].endswith(".pdf"): + record["pdf"] = pdf_dates(saved) + records.append(record) + + texts = { + record["extraction"]["name"]: normalize( + (law_dir / record["extraction"]["name"]).read_text(encoding="utf-8") + ) + for record in records + } + checked = [] + for source, quote in excerpts(): + if source not in texts: + raise SystemExit(f"excerpts.md names an unknown source: {source}") + found = normalize(quote) in texts[source] + checked.append({"source": source, "found": found, "excerpt": quote[:90]}) + missing = [c for c in checked if not c["found"]] + + schedules = {} + for year, name in REV_PROCS.items(): + layout = subprocess.run( + ["pdftotext", "-layout", str(law_dir / name), "-"], + capture_output=True, + text=True, + check=True, + ).stdout + read = rate_tables(layout, year) + for status, table in read.items(): + same = ( + table["thresholds"] == tax_table.SCHEDULES[year][status] + and table["rates"] == tax_table.RATES + and table["base_amounts_cents"] == tax_table.BASE_AMOUNTS[year][status] + ) + schedules[f"{year} {status}"] = same + + tables = {} + for year, name in PUBLICATIONS.items(): + rows = table_parser.parse((law_dir / name).read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + buffer = io.StringIO() + writer = csv.writer(buffer, lineterminator="\n") + writer.writerow(table_parser.COLUMNS) + writer.writerows(rows) + committed = (LAW / TABLES[year]).read_text() + built = tax_table.constructed_table(year) + tables[str(year)] = { + "publication": name, + "csv": TABLES[year], + "csv_sha256": sha256(committed.encode()), + "parse_equals_committed_csv": buffer.getvalue() == committed, + "amounts": 4 * len(rows), + "amounts_equal_to_constructed_table": sum( + row[2 + i] == built_row[status] + for row, built_row in zip(rows, built) + for i, status in enumerate(table_parser.COLUMNS[2:]) + ), + } + + # "middle initial" is the name line of Form 1040-ES's payment vouchers. + midpoint = { + name: len( + re.findall( + r"midpoint|mid-point|middle(?! initial)", + (law_dir / name).read_text(encoding="utf-8"), + flags=re.I, + ) + ) + for name in IRS_TEXTS + } + history = draft_listing_history(law_dir) + (LAW / "draft_listing_history.json").write_text( + json.dumps(history, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + act = texts["plaw119-21.txt"] + check = { + "read_on": READ_ON, + "excerpts": len(checked), + "excerpts_found": len(checked) - len(missing), + "excerpts_not_found": missing, + "by_source": { + source: sum(c["source"] == source for c in checked) + for source in sorted({c["source"] for c in checked}) + }, + "rate_tables_equal_to_tax_table_py": schedules, + "tax_tables": tables, + "occurrences_of_midpoint_or_middle": midpoint, + "pub_l_119_21_amends_section_3": bool( + re.search(r"Section 3\(a\) is amended|tax tables for individuals", act, re.I) + ), + "tax_table_drafts_listed_on_or_before_freeze": len( + history["tax_table_products_listed_on_or_before_freeze"] + ), + } + ok = ( + not missing + and all(schedules.values()) + and all(t["parse_equals_committed_csv"] for t in tables.values()) + and all(t["amounts_equal_to_constructed_table"] == t["amounts"] for t in tables.values()) + and not any(midpoint.values()) + and not check["pub_l_119_21_amends_section_3"] + and not check["tax_table_drafts_listed_on_or_before_freeze"] + ) + check["all_checks_pass"] = ok + (LAW / "sources.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "read_on": READ_ON, + "committed": ( + "law/excerpts.md and the two Tax Table CSVs. No whole document " + "is committed; each is public at the address given." + ), + "copyright": ( + "Works of the United States Government; no copyright " + "(17 U.S.C. 105)." + ), + "sources": records, + }, + indent=2, + ) + + "\n" + ) + (LAW / "excerpts_check.json").write_text(json.dumps(check, indent=2) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(check, indent=2)) + if not ok: + raise SystemExit("a law check failed") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..73441f46 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,722 @@ +"""Score the frozen run under three conventions for the federal regular tax. + + schedule the published references: the section 1 rate schedule applied exactly. + either an answer is exact when it is within $1 of the published reference or + within $1 of the reference recomputed with the constructed Tax Table. + table every scored reference takes its value under the constructed Tax + Table (verification/sweep_tax_table.csv, the ``table`` variant), + which moves the federal income tax and each output that follows it. + +and, for comparison with PolicyBench's usual remedy for a reference a careful +reader could take two ways: + + exclude the scored outputs the Tax Table moves by more than $1 leave scoring + for every model. The scratch copy gets placeholder exclusion records + so the analyze command will run; they are not proposed records. + +Nothing published is written: the frozen run is read from git at the release +commit (scripts/release.py) into a scratch directory. + +Two scorers, which must agree on every model under every convention: + + repo ``python -m policybench.cli analyze`` on a staged copy for schedule, + table and exclude (the command the freeze runs; the schedule + copy must reproduce the published payload), and + ``policybench.analysis.weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model`` for all + four. For ``either`` each model is scored against the accepted + value nearer its answer, which is the same rule for an exact + match. + independent scripts/independent_scorer.py, which reads the files itself and + imports nothing from policybench. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 uv run python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch + +Writes verification/federal_cells.csv, model_answers.csv, model_counts.csv, +leaderboard_impact_models.csv and leaderboard_impact.json, and prints the model +table. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import gzip +import hashlib +import io +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent)) +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) + +import independent_scorer # noqa: E402 +import release # noqa: E402 +import tax_table # noqa: E402 + +OUT = HERE / "verification" +SWEEP = OUT / "sweep_tax_table.csv" +UNITS = OUT / "tax_units.csv" +DRAFT_TABLE = HERE / "law/irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv" +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +YEAR = 2026 +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") +CONVENTIONS = ("schedule", "either", "table", "exclude") +AGREE_TOL = 1e-9 + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def stage( + target: Path, values: dict | None = None, drop: list[tuple] | None = None +) -> Path: + """A scratch copy of the frozen run, with some scored references replaced + or (``drop``: scenario, variable, frozen value, other value) left unscored.""" + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + release.materialize(target) + if drop: + path = target / "reference_exclusions.json" + record = json.loads(path.read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend( + { + "scenario_id": scenario_id, + "variable": variable, + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "unlisted_input": "scratch placeholder: Tax Table or rate schedule", + "alternative_reading": "scratch placeholder for scoring only", + "frozen_value": frozen, + "alternative_value": other, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.38.6", + "decided_on": "2026-10-10", + "decided_by": "scratch placeholder, not a decision", + } + for scenario_id, variable, frozen, other in drop + ) + path.write_text(json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n") + if values: + path = target / "reference_outputs.csv" + with path.open(newline="") as handle: + rows = list(csv.reader(handle)) + header, body = rows[0], rows[1:] + at = {name: header.index(name) for name in ("scenario_id", "variable", "value")} + replaced = 0 + for row in body: + key = (row[at["scenario_id"]], row[at["variable"]]) + if key in values: + row[at["value"]] = repr(float(values[key])) + replaced += 1 + if replaced != len(values): + raise SystemExit("a replaced reference is not in the reference file") + with path.open("w", newline="") as handle: + csv.writer(handle, lineterminator="\n").writerows([header, *body]) + # The analyzer checks the CSV against the digest its sidecar pins; repin + # the scratch copy's sidecar to the rewritten CSV. + meta_path = target / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) + meta["reference_csv_sha256"] = sha256(path) + meta_path.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2) + "\n") + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(run_dir / "analysis"), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + return json.loads(dashboard.read_text())["countries"]["us"] + + +def payload_differences(a: dict, b: dict) -> list[str]: + """Compared payload values that differ (modelStats less the overlaid fields).""" + out = [key for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS if a[key] != b[key]] + x = {m["model"]: m for m in a["modelStats"]} + y = {m["model"]: m for m in b["modelStats"]} + if set(x) != set(y): + return out + ["modelStats: model sets differ"] + for model, row in x.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != y[model].get(field): + out.append(f"modelStats.{model}.{field}") + return out + + +def repo_function_exact(run_dir: Path, alternative: dict | None = None) -> pd.Series: + """The headline exact rate from the repo's scoring function. + + With ``alternative`` (a second accepted value for some outputs), each model is + scored against whichever accepted value is nearer its own answer. + """ + from policybench.analysis import weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model + from policybench.reference_exclusions import scored_reference_for + + truth, _ = scored_reference_for(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + scenarios = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "scenarios.csv") + market = dict( + zip( + scenarios["scenario_id"].astype(str), + pd.to_numeric(scenarios["total_income"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0), + ) + ) + predictions = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz", low_memory=False) + if not alternative: + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model( + truth, predictions, market, country="us" + ) + return scored.set_index("model")["weighted_exact"] * 100 + out = {} + keys = list(zip(truth["scenario_id"], truth["variable"])) + for model, rows in predictions.groupby("model"): + answers = { + (s, v): p + for s, v, p in zip(rows["scenario_id"], rows["variable"], rows["prediction"]) + } + own = truth.copy() + values = [] + for key, value in zip(keys, truth["value"]): + other = alternative.get(key) + answer = answers.get(key) + if other is not None and answer is not None and not pd.isna(answer): + if abs(float(answer) - other) < abs(float(answer) - value): + value = other + values.append(value) + own["value"] = values + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model(own, rows, market, country="us") + out[model] = float(scored["weighted_exact"].iloc[0]) * 100 + return pd.Series(out) + + +def ranks(series: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: + return series.rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +FARM_INPUTS = ("farm_income", "farm_operations_income", "farm_rent_income") + + +def filers() -> dict[str, dict]: + """Each household's tax unit head: age, and any farm income in the household. + + Form 8615 needs a filer under 24 and Schedule J needs income from farming or + fishing, so these two facts bound where either could replace the look-up. + """ + scenarios = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(release.read("scenarios.csv"))) + out = {} + for scenario_id, text in zip(scenarios["scenario_id"], scenarios["scenario_json"]): + adults = json.loads(text)["adults"] + heads = [a for a in adults if a.get("inputs", {}).get("is_tax_unit_head")] + if len(heads) != 1: + raise SystemExit(f"{scenario_id}: not one tax unit head") + out[scenario_id] = { + "head_age": int(heads[0]["age"]), + "farm_income": sum( + float(a.get("inputs", {}).get(name) or 0.0) + for a in adults + for name in ("farm_income", "farm_rent_income") + ), + "has_farm_income": any( + float(a.get("inputs", {}).get(name) or 0.0) != 0.0 + for a in adults + for name in FARM_INPUTS + ), + } + return out + + +def federal_cells(sweep: pd.DataFrame, units: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Each federal income tax reference, with its return's Tax Table look-up. + + Every benchmark household is one federal return in the engine, which this + checks, so a reference and its return are one row. + """ + with DRAFT_TABLE.open() as handle: + draft = {int(r["at_least"]): r for r in csv.DictReader(handle)} + if units.groupby(["system", "scenario_id"]).size().max() != 1: + raise SystemExit("a household has more than one federal return") + base = units[units["system"] == "baseline"].set_index("scenario_id") + table = units[units["system"] == "table"].set_index("scenario_id") + people = filers() + rows = [] + for row in sweep[sweep["variable"] == FEDERAL].itertuples(): + unit, other = base.loc[row.scenario_id], table.loc[row.scenario_id] + column = tax_table.COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS[unit.filing_status] + taxable = float(unit.taxable_income) + # The amount taxed at the ordinary rates: line 15, or line 5 of the + # Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet. + ordinary = max( + 0.0, taxable - float(unit.capital_gains_excluded_from_taxable_income) + ) + record = { + "scenario_id": row.scenario_id, + "state": row.state, + "scored": bool(row.scored), + "filing_status": unit.filing_status, + "head_age": people[row.scenario_id]["head_age"], + "has_farm_income": people[row.scenario_id]["has_farm_income"], + "itemizes": bool(unit.itemizes), + "capital_gain_worksheet": bool(unit.has_qdiv_or_ltcg and taxable > 0), + "taxable_income": round(taxable, 2), + "taxable_income_class": ( + "zero" + if taxable <= 0 + else "under_100000" + if taxable < tax_table.CEILING + else "100000_or_more" + ), + "amount_at_ordinary_rates": round(ordinary, 2), + "tax_table_applies": bool(0 < ordinary < tax_table.CEILING), + "band": "", + "schedule_tax_on_amount": round(float(unit.income_tax_main_rates), 2), + "constructed_table_tax_on_amount": "", + "irs_draft_2026_table_tax_on_amount": "", + "marginal_rate": "", + "schedule_regular_tax": round(float(unit.regular_tax_before_credits), 2), + "table_regular_tax": round(float(other.regular_tax_before_credits), 2), + "nonrefundable_credits_schedule": round( + float(unit.income_tax_capped_non_refundable_credits), 2 + ), + "nonrefundable_credits_table": round( + float(other.income_tax_capped_non_refundable_credits), 2 + ), + "reference": row.reference, + "schedule_value": row.baseline, + "constructed_table_value": row.table, + "difference": row.table_delta, + "differs_beyond_1": bool(row.table_moves), + "table_whole_dollar_value": row.table_whole_dollar, + } + if record["tax_table_applies"]: + lower, upper = tax_table.band(ordinary) + constructed = tax_table.table_tax(ordinary, column, YEAR) + if int(draft[lower][column]) != constructed: + raise SystemExit("constructed table differs from the IRS draft") + if abs(float(other.income_tax_main_rates) - constructed) > 1e-6: + raise SystemExit("the sweep did not apply the constructed table") + record.update( + band=f"{lower}-{upper}", + constructed_table_tax_on_amount=constructed, + irs_draft_2026_table_tax_on_amount=int(draft[lower][column]), + marginal_rate=tax_table.marginal_rate(ordinary, column, YEAR), + ) + rows.append(record) + return pd.DataFrame(rows) + + +def model_answers( + predictions: pd.DataFrame, sweep: pd.DataFrame, changed: pd.DataFrame +) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Every model's answer on each scored output the Tax Table changes.""" + keys = set(zip(changed["scenario_id"], changed["variable"])) + rows = predictions[ + [(s, v) in keys for s, v in zip(predictions["scenario_id"], predictions["variable"])] + ] + values = changed.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + out = [] + for r in rows.itertuples(): + cell = values.loc[(r.scenario_id, r.variable)] + answer = r.prediction + parsed = answer is not None and not pd.isna(answer) + near_schedule = parsed and abs(float(answer) - cell.baseline) <= 1.0 + near_table = parsed and abs(float(answer) - cell.table) <= 1.0 + explanation = str(r.explanation) if isinstance(r.explanation, str) else "" + out.append( + { + "model": r.model, + "scenario_id": r.scenario_id, + "variable": r.variable, + "prediction": answer, + "schedule_value": cell.baseline, + "constructed_table_value": cell.table, + "table_moves_beyond_1": bool(cell.table_moves), + "within_1_of_schedule": bool(near_schedule), + "within_1_of_table": bool(near_table), + "matches": ( + "both" + if near_schedule and near_table + else "schedule" + if near_schedule + else "table" + if near_table + else "neither" + ), + "whole_dollar_answer": bool(parsed and float(answer) == round(float(answer))), + "explanation_mentions_tax_table": "tax table" in explanation.lower(), + } + ) + return pd.DataFrame(out) + + +def model_counts(answers: pd.DataFrame, models: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Per model: answers on the federal cells the table moves by more than $1.""" + federal = answers[(answers["variable"] == FEDERAL) & answers["table_moves_beyond_1"]] + rows = [] + for model in models: + own = federal[federal["model"] == model] + counts = own["matches"].value_counts() + rows.append( + { + "model": model, + "cells": int(len(own)), + "matches_schedule": int(counts.get("schedule", 0)), + "matches_table": int(counts.get("table", 0)), + "matches_both": int(counts.get("both", 0)), + "matches_neither": int(counts.get("neither", 0)), + "whole_dollar_answers": int(own["whole_dollar_answer"].sum()), + "explanations_mentioning_tax_table": int( + own["explanation_mentions_tax_table"].sum() + ), + } + ) + return pd.DataFrame(rows) + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP) + units = pd.read_csv(UNITS) + scored = sweep[sweep["scored"]] + changed = scored[(scored["table"] - scored["baseline"]).abs() > 1e-6] + table_values = { + (r.scenario_id, r.variable): float(r.table) for r in changed.itertuples() + } + + cells = federal_cells(sweep, units) + cells.to_csv(OUT / "federal_cells.csv", index=False) + + # Repo scorer, through the CLI. + base_dir = stage(scratch / "schedule") + base = analyze(base_dir) + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress(release.read("data.json.gz"))) + published = published["countries"]["us"] if "countries" in published else published + differences = payload_differences(published, base) + if differences: + raise SystemExit(f"the unchanged copy differs from the payload: {differences[:10]}") + table_dir = stage(scratch / "table", table_values) + table = analyze(table_dir) + moved_scored = scored[scored["table_moves"]] + exclude_dir = stage( + scratch / "exclude", + drop=[ + (r.scenario_id, r.variable, float(r.reference), float(r.table)) + for r in moved_scored.itertuples() + ], + ) + exclude = analyze(exclude_dir) + + cli = { + "schedule": pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model"), + "table": pd.DataFrame(table["modelStats"]).set_index("model"), + "exclude": pd.DataFrame(exclude["modelStats"]).set_index("model"), + } + models = list(cli["schedule"].index) + + # Repo scorer, through its function; and the independent scorer. + repo = { + "schedule": repo_function_exact(base_dir), + "either": repo_function_exact(base_dir, table_values), + "table": repo_function_exact(table_dir), + "exclude": repo_function_exact(exclude_dir), + } + independent = { + "schedule": independent_scorer.exact_rates(base_dir), + "either": independent_scorer.exact_rates(base_dir, also_accept=table_values), + "table": independent_scorer.exact_rates(table_dir), + "exclude": independent_scorer.exact_rates(exclude_dir), + } + agreement = {} + for convention in CONVENTIONS: + a = repo[convention].reindex(models) + b = pd.Series(independent[convention]).reindex(models) + gap = float((a - b).abs().max()) + agreement[convention] = {"max_abs_gap_repo_vs_independent": gap} + if gap > AGREE_TOL: + raise SystemExit(f"{convention}: scorers disagree by {gap}") + if convention in cli: + cli_gap = float((a - cli[convention]["exact"].reindex(models)).abs().max()) + agreement[convention]["max_abs_gap_function_vs_cli"] = cli_gap + if cli_gap > AGREE_TOL: + raise SystemExit(f"{convention}: function and CLI disagree by {cli_gap}") + + predictions = pd.read_csv(base_dir / "predictions.csv.gz", low_memory=False) + answers = model_answers(predictions, sweep, changed) + answers.to_csv(OUT / "model_answers.csv", index=False) + counts = model_counts(answers, models) + counts.to_csv(OUT / "model_counts.csv", index=False) + + frame = pd.DataFrame(index=pd.Index(models, name="model")) + for convention in CONVENTIONS: + frame[f"exact_{convention}"] = repo[convention].reindex(models) + frame[f"exact_{convention}_independent"] = pd.Series( + independent[convention] + ).reindex(models) + frame[f"rank_{convention}"] = ranks(frame[f"exact_{convention}"]) + for convention in CONVENTIONS[1:]: + frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"] = ( + frame[f"exact_{convention}"] - frame["exact_schedule"] + ) + for metric in ("within1pct", "score"): + for convention in cli: + frame[f"{metric}_{convention}"] = cli[convention][metric].reindex(models) + frame = frame.join(counts.set_index("model")) + frame = frame.sort_values("rank_schedule") + frame.to_csv(OUT / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv") + + def rank_changes(convention: str) -> dict: + return { + model: { + "schedule": int(row["rank_schedule"]), + convention: int(row[f"rank_{convention}"]), + } + for model, row in frame.iterrows() + if row["rank_schedule"] != row[f"rank_{convention}"] + } + + federal_scored = cells[cells["scored"]] + moved = federal_scored[federal_scored["differs_beyond_1"]] + delta = federal_scored["difference"] + nonzero = delta[delta.abs() > 1e-6] + federal_answers = answers[ + (answers["variable"] == FEDERAL) & answers["table_moves_beyond_1"] + ] + result = { + "published_payload_reproduced": True, + "release": {"tag": release.RELEASE, "commit": release.RELEASE_COMMIT}, + "inputs": dict(release.SHA256), + "sweep_sha256": sha256(SWEEP), + "models": len(models), + "scored_outputs_per_model": { + convention: int(stats["n"].iloc[0]) for convention, stats in cli.items() + }, + "federal_references": { + "all": int(len(cells)), + "scored": int(len(federal_scored)), + "scored_nonzero": int((federal_scored["schedule_value"].abs() > 1e-6).sum()), + "scored_by_taxable_income": { + str(name): int(count) + for name, count in federal_scored["taxable_income_class"] + .value_counts() + .items() + }, + "all_by_taxable_income": { + str(name): int(count) + for name, count in cells["taxable_income_class"].value_counts().items() + }, + "scored_where_table_applies": int( + federal_scored["tax_table_applies"].sum() + ), + "scored_itemizers_where_table_applies": int( + (federal_scored["tax_table_applies"] & federal_scored["itemizes"]).sum() + ), + "scored_through_a_capital_gain_worksheet_where_table_applies": int( + ( + federal_scored["tax_table_applies"] + & federal_scored["capital_gain_worksheet"] + ).sum() + ), + # Rounding only the looked-up amount to a whole dollar (the sweep's + # table_whole_dollar variant), against the table variant. + "look_up_rounding_sensitivity": { + "scored_changed_by_any_amount": int( + ( + ( + federal_scored["constructed_table_value"] + - federal_scored["table_whole_dollar_value"] + ).abs() + > 1e-6 + ).sum() + ), + "scored_moved_by_more_than_1": [ + { + "scenario_id": r.scenario_id, + "table": float(r.constructed_table_value), + "table_whole_dollar": float(r.table_whole_dollar_value), + } + for r in federal_scored.itertuples() + if abs(r.constructed_table_value - r.table_whole_dollar_value) > 1 + ], + "scored_max_abs_change_at_100000_or_more": float( + ( + federal_scored["constructed_table_value"] + - federal_scored["table_whole_dollar_value"] + ) + .abs()[federal_scored["taxable_income_class"] == "100000_or_more"] + .max() + ), + }, + # Where another method could replace the look-up: Form 8615 needs a + # filer under 24, Schedule J income from farming or fishing. + "returns_where_table_applies": { + "all": int(cells["tax_table_applies"].sum()), + "head_24_or_older": int( + (cells["tax_table_applies"] & (cells["head_age"] >= 24)).sum() + ), + "head_under_24": [ + {"scenario_id": r.scenario_id, "head_age": int(r.head_age)} + for r in cells[ + cells["tax_table_applies"] & (cells["head_age"] < 24) + ].itertuples() + ], + "with_farm_income": list( + cells[cells["tax_table_applies"] & cells["has_farm_income"]][ + "scenario_id" + ] + ), + }, + "scored_changed_by_any_amount": int(len(nonzero)), + "scored_differing_by_more_than_1": int(len(moved)), + "scored_differing_by_1_or_less": int(len(nonzero) - len(moved)), + "scored_unchanged": int(len(federal_scored) - len(nonzero)), + "difference_distribution_among_changed": { + "min": float(nonzero.min()), + "p25": float(nonzero.quantile(0.25)), + "median": float(nonzero.median()), + "p75": float(nonzero.quantile(0.75)), + "max": float(nonzero.max()), + "mean": float(nonzero.mean()), + "mean_abs": float(nonzero.abs().mean()), + "table_higher": int((nonzero > 0).sum()), + "table_lower": int((nonzero < 0).sum()), + }, + "abs_difference_histogram": { + label: int(((nonzero.abs() > low) & (nonzero.abs() <= high)).sum()) + for label, low, high in ( + ("0-1", 0, 1), + ("1-2", 1, 2), + ("2-3", 2, 3), + ("3-4", 3, 4), + ("4-5", 4, 5), + ("5-6", 5, 6), + ("over 6", 6, np.inf), + ) + }, + }, + "scored_outputs_the_table_changes": { + variable: { + "changed": int(len(group)), + "beyond_1": int(group["table_moves"].sum()), + "max_abs_delta": float(group["table_delta"].abs().max()), + } + for variable, group in changed.groupby("variable") + }, + "excluded_outputs_the_table_changes": { + variable: int(len(group)) + for variable, group in sweep[ + ~sweep["scored"] & ((sweep["table"] - sweep["baseline"]).abs() > 1e-6) + ].groupby("variable") + }, + "answers_on_federal_cells_moved_beyond_1": { + "rows": int(len(federal_answers)), + **{ + kind: int((federal_answers["matches"] == kind).sum()) + for kind in ("schedule", "table", "both", "neither") + }, + "whole_dollar_answers": int(federal_answers["whole_dollar_answer"].sum()), + "explanations_mentioning_tax_table": int( + federal_answers["explanation_mentions_tax_table"].sum() + ), + "models_with_a_table_only_match": int((counts["matches_table"] > 0).sum()), + }, + "answers_on_scored_outputs_changed_by_1_or_less": { + "outputs": int((~changed["table_moves"]).sum()), + "rows": int((~answers["table_moves_beyond_1"]).sum()), + "exact_differs_between_the_two_values": int( + ( + ~answers["table_moves_beyond_1"] + & (answers["within_1_of_schedule"] != answers["within_1_of_table"]) + ).sum() + ), + }, + "all_federal_answers": { + "rows": int((predictions["variable"] == FEDERAL).sum()), + "explanations_mentioning_tax_table": int( + predictions.loc[predictions["variable"] == FEDERAL, "explanation"] + .fillna("") + .str.contains("tax table", case=False) + .sum() + ), + }, + "scorer_agreement": agreement, + "conventions": { + convention: { + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"].min()), + "max": float(frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"].max()), + "mean": float(frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"].mean()), + }, + "models_gaining": int((frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"] > 1e-12).sum()), + "models_losing": int((frame[f"exact_{convention}_delta"] < -1e-12).sum()), + "exact_rank_changes": rank_changes(convention), + "leader": str(frame[f"exact_{convention}"].idxmax()), + "leader_exact": float(frame[f"exact_{convention}"].max()), + } + for convention in CONVENTIONS[1:] + }, + "leader_schedule": { + "model": str(frame["exact_schedule"].idxmax()), + "exact": float(frame["exact_schedule"].max()), + }, + } + (OUT / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2) + "\n") + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 100): + print( + frame[ + [ + "exact_schedule", + "exact_either", + "exact_table", + "exact_exclude", + "rank_schedule", + "rank_either", + "rank_table", + "rank_exclude", + "cells", + "matches_schedule", + "matches_table", + "matches_both", + "matches_neither", + ] + ].round(4) + ) + print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/mutants_tax_table.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/mutants_tax_table.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..60e17f5c --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/mutants_tax_table.py @@ -0,0 +1,363 @@ +"""Break the Tax Table construction, the table parser, the sweep's look-up and +the independent scorer one way at a time, and run tests/test_tax_table_audit.py +against each. + +The unmodified tests must pass first. Each mutant then replaces one exact piece +of source text (it must occur once), the tests run with -x, and the source is +restored. A mutant is killed only when pytest ran and a test failed (exit +status 1); a collection error or any other status is reported as an error, not +as a kill. A mutant the tests still pass is a property the tests do not hold. + +The manifest test is left out of every run: it compares each script's sha256, +so it would fail on any edit and kill every mutant without testing anything. + +A break is written into the script itself, so a run that is killed part way +could leave one in place. Before each break the script's text is saved beside it +(``.before-mutation``) and removed once the script is restored; a later +run restores any script it finds saved that way before doing anything else, and +a terminate or hang-up signal restores the script on the way out. +tests/test_tax_table_audit.py's manifest test fails on a script left broken or +a saved copy left behind. + +Writes verification/mutants_tax_table.txt and exits 1 if any mutant survives or +errors. + + uv run python reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/mutants_tax_table.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +import signal +import subprocess +import sys +import tempfile +from pathlib import Path + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +SCRIPTS = "reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts" +TABLE = f"{SCRIPTS}/tax_table.py" +PARSER = f"{SCRIPTS}/parse_irs_tax_table.py" +SCORER = f"{SCRIPTS}/independent_scorer.py" +SWEEP = f"{SCRIPTS}/sweep_tax_table.py" +TESTS = "tests/test_tax_table_audit.py" +MANIFEST_TEST = f"{TESTS}::test_the_manifest_pins_every_evidence_file" +SAVED = ".before-mutation" + +# (what breaks, file, the text as it stands, the text with the break) +MUTANTS = [ + ( + "a half dollar rounds down", + TABLE, + " return (half_cents + 100) // 200", + " return (half_cents + 99) // 200", + ), + ( + "the tax is truncated to a dollar", + TABLE, + " return (half_cents + 100) // 200", + " return half_cents // 200", + ), + ( + "the tax is taken at the band's lower bound", + TABLE, + "half_cents = _half_cents(lower + upper, SCHEDULES[year][status])", + "half_cents = _half_cents(2 * lower, SCHEDULES[year][status])", + ), + ( + "the tax is taken at the band's upper bound", + TABLE, + "half_cents = _half_cents(lower + upper, SCHEDULES[year][status])", + "half_cents = _half_cents(2 * upper, SCHEDULES[year][status])", + ), + ( + "$25 bands run to $5,000", + TABLE, + " width = 25 if taxable_income < 3_000 else 50", + " width = 25 if taxable_income < 5_000 else 50", + ), + ( + "every band above $25 is $50 wide", + TABLE, + " width = 25 if taxable_income < 3_000 else 50", + " width = 50", + ), + ( + "the first band runs to $10", + TABLE, + " if taxable_income < 5:\n return 0, 5", + " if taxable_income < 10:\n return 0, 10", + ), + ( + "a 2026 single threshold is $50 off", + TABLE, + ' "single": (12_400, 50_400, 105_700, 201_775, 256_225, 640_600),', + ' "single": (12_400, 50_450, 105_700, 201_775, 256_225, 640_600),', + ), + ( + "a 2026 joint threshold is $50 off", + TABLE, + ' "joint": (24_800, 100_800, 211_400, 403_550, 512_450, 768_700),', + ' "joint": (24_850, 100_800, 211_400, 403_550, 512_450, 768_700),', + ), + ( + "a 2025 head of household threshold is $50 off", + TABLE, + ' "head_of_household": (17_000, 64_850, 103_350, 197_300, 250_500, 626_350),', + ' "head_of_household": (17_000, 64_900, 103_350, 197_300, 250_500, 626_350),', + ), + ( + "the 12 percent rate is 15 percent", + TABLE, + "RATES = (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 37)", + "RATES = (10, 15, 22, 24, 32, 35, 37)", + ), + ( + "the top rate is 39 percent", + TABLE, + "RATES = (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 37)", + "RATES = (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 39)", + ), + ( + "the ceiling is $110,000", + TABLE, + "CEILING = 100_000", + "CEILING = 110_000", + ), + ( + "the table is used at exactly the ceiling", + TABLE, + " if taxable_income < CEILING:\n return float(table_tax(", + " if taxable_income <= CEILING:\n return float(table_tax(", + ), + ( + "a surviving spouse reads the single column", + TABLE, + ' "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": "joint",', + ' "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": "single",', + ), + ( + "the schedule skips the top of a bracket", + TABLE, + " if top is None or half_dollars <= 2 * top:\n break", + " if top is None or half_dollars < 2 * top + 100:\n break", + ), + ( + "the parser accepts a table with bands missing", + PARSER, + " if bands != expected_bands():", + " if False:", + ), + ( + "the parser reads past the Tax Table", + PARSER, + " for line in text[:end].splitlines():", + " for line in text.splitlines():", + ), + ( + "an amount that rounds up to the ceiling keeps the unrounded schedule tax", + SWEEP, + " elif rounded:", + " elif False:", + ), + ( + "the looked-up amount is truncated, not rounded", + SWEEP, + " value = float(np.floor(value + 0.5)) if rounded else float(value)", + " value = float(np.floor(value)) if rounded else float(value)", + ), + ( + "the table is looked up in every year", + SWEEP, + ' if variant == "schedule_copy" or period.start.year != YEAR:', + ' if variant == "schedule_copy":', + ), + ( + "the exact-match bound is exclusive", + SCORER, + " return abs(reference - answer) <= TOLERANCE", + " return abs(reference - answer) < TOLERANCE", + ), + ( + "the exact-match bound is two dollars", + SCORER, + "TOLERANCE = 1.0", + "TOLERANCE = 2.0", + ), + ( + "a missing answer is scored as zero", + SCORER, + " if answer is None or math.isnan(answer):\n return False", + " if answer is None or math.isnan(answer):\n answer = 0.0", + ), + ( + "excluded outputs are scored", + SCORER, + " if key not in excluded:", + " if True:", + ), + ( + "a group's weight is not split over its outputs", + SCORER, + " key: weights[group] / total / counts[(key[0], group)]", + " key: weights[group] / total", + ), + ( + "a household's weights are not scaled to one", + SCORER, + " key: weight / sums[key[0]] for key, weight in raw.items() if sums[key[0]] > 0", + " key: weight for key, weight in raw.items() if sums[key[0]] > 0", + ), + ( + "flags are scored as amounts", + SCORER, + ' return group.endswith("_eligible")', + " return False", + ), + ( + "an answer that is not 0 or 1 counts as eligible", + SCORER, + " return None\n\n\ndef exact(", + " return 1\n\n\ndef exact(", + ), + ( + "the second accepted value is ignored", + SCORER, + " if not hit and also_accept and key in also_accept:", + " if False:", + ), + ( + "the second accepted value replaces the reference", + SCORER, + " hit = exact(group_of[key], reference[key], answer)\n" + " if not hit and also_accept and key in also_accept:", + " hit = False\n if also_accept and key in also_accept:", + ), + ( + "a person's outputs are not grouped", + SCORER, + ' return f"person_{suffix}"', + " return variable", + ), + ( + "the shorter person suffix is matched first", + SCORER, + " key=len,\n reverse=True,", + " key=len,\n reverse=False,", + ), + ( + "a model's rate is a sum over households", + SCORER, + " out[model] = 100 * math.fsum(scores.values()) / len(households)", + " out[model] = 100 * math.fsum(scores.values())", + ), +] + + +def run_tests() -> tuple[int, str]: + with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory(prefix="pb-tax-table-mutants-") as scratch: + result = subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "pytest", + TESTS, + "-x", + "-q", + "--no-header", + "-p", + "no:cacheprovider", + "--deselect", + MANIFEST_TEST, + "--basetemp", + f"{scratch}/tmp", + ], + cwd=ROOT, + capture_output=True, + text=True, + env={ + "PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE": "1", + "PATH": os.environ["PATH"], + "HOME": os.environ.get("HOME", ""), + "HYPOTHESIS_STORAGE_DIRECTORY": f"{scratch}/hypothesis", + }, + ) + lines = [line for line in result.stdout.strip().splitlines() if line.strip()] + tail = lines[-1].strip("= ") if lines else result.stderr.strip()[-200:] + return result.returncode, tail + + +def saved_copy(path: Path) -> Path: + return path.with_name(path.name + SAVED) + + +def restore_interrupted_runs() -> list[str]: + """Put back any script an earlier, killed run left broken.""" + restored = [] + for name in sorted({name for _, name, _, _ in MUTANTS}): + path = ROOT / name + saved = saved_copy(path) + if saved.exists(): + path.write_text(saved.read_text()) + saved.unlink() + restored.append(name) + return restored + + +def stop(signum, frame): + raise SystemExit(f"stopped by signal {signum}") + + +def main() -> int: + for signum in (signal.SIGTERM, signal.SIGHUP): + signal.signal(signum, stop) + for name in restore_interrupted_runs(): + print(f"restored {name} from a run that did not finish") + status, tail = run_tests() + if status != 0: + raise SystemExit(f"the unmodified tests do not pass ({tail}); nothing to mutate") + lines = [ + "Each line breaks scripts/tax_table.py, scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py,", + "scripts/sweep_tax_table.py's look-up or scripts/independent_scorer.py one way", + f"and runs {TESTS} (-x),", + "without the manifest test, which would fail on any edit.", + "scripts/mutants_tax_table.py holds each break's exact text. A mutant is", + "killed only when pytest ran and a test failed (exit status 1).", + "", + f"Unmodified: {tail}", + "", + ] + counts = {"killed": 0, "SURVIVED": 0, "ERROR": 0} + for number, (what, name, old, new) in enumerate(MUTANTS, start=1): + path = ROOT / name + original = path.read_text() + if original.count(old) != 1: + raise SystemExit( + f"mutant {number} ({what}): text occurs {original.count(old)} times" + ) + saved = saved_copy(path) + saved.write_text(original) + try: + path.write_text(original.replace(old, new)) + status, tail = run_tests() + finally: + path.write_text(original) + saved.unlink() + outcome = {0: "SURVIVED", 1: "killed"}.get(status, "ERROR") + counts[outcome] += 1 + short = name.rsplit("/", 1)[-1] + lines.append(f"{number:2d}. {outcome:8s} {what} [{short}]: {tail}") + lines.append("") + lines.append( + f"{counts['killed']} of {len(MUTANTS)} mutants killed, " + f"{counts['SURVIVED']} survived, {counts['ERROR']} errored" + ) + text = "\n".join(lines) + "\n" + (HERE / "verification" / "mutants_tax_table.txt").write_text(text) + print(text, end="") + return 1 if counts["SURVIVED"] or counts["ERROR"] else 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + sys.exit(main()) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ac21add3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py @@ -0,0 +1,76 @@ +"""Read the Tax Table out of an IRS Publication 1040 and write it as CSV. + +Publication 1040 ("Tax and Earned Income Credit Tables") reprints the Tax Table +of the Instructions for Form 1040. ``pdftotext -raw`` (poppler) gives each table +row as six integers on one line: at least, but less than, single, married filing +jointly, married filing separately, head of household. The Tax Table ends where +the Tax Computation Worksheet page begins; the Earned Income Credit table that +follows has rows of other lengths and is not read. + +The parser refuses a table that is not exactly the 2,062 bands from $0 to +$100,000 in order, so a changed layout cannot pass as a table. + + pdftotext -raw p1040.pdf p1040.raw.txt + python3 -I parse_irs_tax_table.py p1040.raw.txt irs_tax_table_2025.csv + +Standard library only, and no import from its own directory, so it can run with +``python3 -I`` on a downloaded document. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import re +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +COLUMNS = ( + "at_least", + "less_than", + "single", + "joint", + "separate", + "head_of_household", +) +END = "Tax Computation Worksheet—Line 16" +ROW = re.compile(r"^\d[\d,]*( \d[\d,]*){5}$") +CEILING = 100_000 + + +def expected_bands() -> list[tuple[int, int]]: + out = [(0, 5), (5, 15), (15, 25)] + out += [(lower, lower + 25) for lower in range(25, 3_000, 25)] + out += [(lower, lower + 50) for lower in range(3_000, CEILING, 50)] + return out + + +def parse(text: str) -> list[tuple[int, ...]]: + end = text.find(END) + if end < 0: + raise SystemExit(f"no {END!r} heading: not a Publication 1040 extraction") + rows = [] + for line in text[:end].splitlines(): + line = line.strip() + if ROW.match(line): + rows.append(tuple(int(token.replace(",", "")) for token in line.split())) + bands = [row[:2] for row in rows] + if bands != expected_bands(): + raise SystemExit( + f"read {len(rows)} six-number rows; they are not the " + f"{len(expected_bands())} Tax Table bands in order" + ) + return rows + + +def main() -> None: + source, target = Path(sys.argv[1]), Path(sys.argv[2]) + rows = parse(source.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + with target.open("w", newline="") as handle: + writer = csv.writer(handle, lineterminator="\n") + writer.writerow(COLUMNS) + writer.writerows(rows) + print(f"wrote {target}: {len(rows)} bands, {4 * len(rows)} amounts") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/release.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/release.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5f5b7bde --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/release.py @@ -0,0 +1,70 @@ +"""The frozen run of release dashboard-data-20261010, read from git. + +Later releases rewrite the working tree's snapshot, so the audit's scripts and +tests read the run as commit 5a8164a0 (#208) holds it and check each file +against its sha256. Nothing here writes the snapshot. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import hashlib +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RELEASE = "dashboard-data-20261010" +RELEASE_COMMIT = "5a8164a001efb27fa55f47fe7ea26666a0de31f8" +RUN = "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +SHA256 = { + "scenarios.csv": "71b16212f0c0b3e5d13d8694ce57e362c23248665806c4d6dea7b23ef472858a", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json": ( + "03a66e90b86e9bd0cc77f27520784bd581777762f749675dc716e24c1b8eaebb" + ), + "reference_outputs.csv": ( + "fdd17a57092df4a9111652c85609c767bdbd05b6e32602dd8201b0b74bbbf371" + ), + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json": ( + "d534cfeacf7f8a8b7f6fca477adbb02c5bb52b226778d63cc10fd117ec70c54b" + ), + "reference_exclusions.json": ( + "089e01e1f699aa19f2171e1ac5b6dc2ce775f9898c94420e6a0b06ff5f773626" + ), + "predictions.csv.gz": ( + "0183ab75931b354d6b177b147bbf57fbb79d9d0ac5b98a0304fa32eb329007ae" + ), + "data.json.gz": "535a51db14f13284b7054f2980b3663c3bc4317037eb3a0cc65e392096df5a90", +} +SCORING_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) + + +def read(name: str) -> bytes: + """One file of the frozen run as the release commit holds it.""" + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(ROOT), "show", f"{RELEASE_COMMIT}:{RUN}/{name}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + if result.returncode: + raise SystemExit( + f"cannot read {RUN}/{name} at {RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]}; fetch full history " + f"(git fetch --unshallow): {result.stderr.decode().strip()}" + ) + digest = hashlib.sha256(result.stdout).hexdigest() + if digest != SHA256[name]: + raise SystemExit(f"{name} at {RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]} has sha256 {digest}") + return result.stdout + + +def materialize(target: Path, names: tuple[str, ...] = SCORING_FILES) -> Path: + """Write the named files of the frozen run into a scratch directory.""" + target = Path(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + for name in names: + (target / name).write_bytes(read(name)) + return target diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/state_tax_tables.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/state_tax_tables.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4d91adda --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/state_tax_tables.py @@ -0,0 +1,224 @@ +"""Check which states prescribe an income tax table, and count the references there. + +A scoped follow-up to the federal audit, not an audit of the states: it records +which states' resident instructions prescribe a tax table below an income +ceiling, and how many scored state income tax references sit in those states. It +does not construct any state's table or recompute any reference. + +law/state_tax_table_claims.json holds one row per state (the 21 states with a +nonzero scored state income tax reference in the release), as a research lane +read each state's instructions. This script fetches each address, extracts the +text (``pdftotext -raw`` for a PDF, tags stripped otherwise) and checks each +quotation against it, ignoring white space, case and typographic quote marks, +because several states' PDFs carry text with the spaces missing. It then counts +the release's scored state income tax references by state. + + python3 -I reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/state_tax_tables.py \\ + --dir ~/reviews/policybench-tax-table-2026-10-10/state_documents + +Writes verification/state_tax_tables.json. Standard library, curl and poppler. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import hashlib +import html +import importlib.util +import io +import json +import re +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +CLAIMS = HERE / "law/state_tax_table_claims.json" +OUT = HERE / "verification/state_tax_tables.json" +STATE_TAX = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +AGENT = ( + "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 " + "(KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/126 Safari/537.36" +) + + +def release(): + path = Path(__file__).with_name("release.py") + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("state_tables_release", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def fetch(url: str, directory: Path) -> Path: + target = directory / hashlib.sha256(url.encode()).hexdigest()[:16] + if not target.exists(): + subprocess.run( + ["curl", "-sS", "-L", "--compressed", "--max-time", "180", "-A", AGENT] + + ["-o", str(target), url], + check=True, + ) + return target + + +def text_of(path: Path) -> str: + raw = path.read_bytes() + if raw[:5] == b"%PDF-": + return subprocess.run( + ["pdftotext", "-raw", str(path), "-"], capture_output=True, check=True + ).stdout.decode("utf-8", errors="replace") + page = raw.decode("utf-8", errors="replace") + page = re.sub(r"|", " ", page, flags=re.S) + return html.unescape(re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", page)) + + +def squeeze(text: str) -> str: + """Lower case, typographic marks made plain, words broken at a line end + joined, and every space removed.""" + for mark, plain in ( + ("’", "'"), + ("‘", "'"), + ("“", '"'), + ("”", '"'), + ("–", "-"), + ("—", "-"), + ("­", ""), + (" ", " "), + ): + text = text.replace(mark, plain) + text = re.sub(r"-\s*\n\s*", "", text) # a word broken at a line end + return re.sub(r"\s+", "", text).lower() + + +def reference_counts() -> dict[str, dict[str, int]]: + source = release() + scenarios = csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(source.read("scenarios.csv").decode())) + state = {row["scenario_id"]: row["state"] for row in scenarios} + excluded = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) + for e in json.loads(source.read("reference_exclusions.json"))["exclusions"] + } + counts: dict[str, dict[str, int]] = {} + rows = csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(source.read("reference_outputs.csv").decode())) + for row in rows: + key = (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) + if row["variable"] != STATE_TAX or key in excluded: + continue + value = float(row["value"]) + entry = counts.setdefault( + state[row["scenario_id"]], {"scored": 0, "nonzero": 0, "with_cents": 0} + ) + entry["scored"] += 1 + entry["nonzero"] += abs(value) > 1e-6 + entry["with_cents"] += abs(value - round(value)) > 0.005 + return counts + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--dir", required=True, help="where fetched documents are kept") + args = parser.parse_args() + directory = Path(args.dir).expanduser() + directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + claims = json.loads(CLAIMS.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + counts = reference_counts() + states = [] + for claim in claims["states"]: + checks = [] + for quote_key, url_key in (("quote", "url"), ("second_quote", "second_url")): + if not claim.get(quote_key): + continue + saved = fetch(claim[url_key], directory) + checks.append( + { + "quote": claim[quote_key], + "url": claim[url_key], + "document_sha256": hashlib.sha256(saved.read_bytes()).hexdigest(), + "document_bytes": saved.stat().st_size, + "found": squeeze(claim[quote_key]) in squeeze(text_of(saved)), + } + ) + states.append( + { + "state": claim["state"], + "instructions_tax_year": claim["tax_year"], + "table_prescribed": claim["table_prescribed"].startswith("yes"), + "ceiling": claim["ceiling"], + "mandatory": claim["mandatory"], + "band_width_as_reported": claim["band_width"], + "note": claim.get("note", ""), + "quotations": checks, + "every_quotation_found": all(check["found"] for check in checks), + "scored_state_references": counts.get(claim["state"], {}).get( + "scored", 0 + ), + "scored_nonzero_state_references": counts.get(claim["state"], {}).get( + "nonzero", 0 + ), + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": counts.get( + claim["state"], {} + ).get("with_cents", 0), + } + ) + + table_states = [s for s in states if s["table_prescribed"]] + must = [ + s + for s in table_states + if s["mandatory"].startswith("mandatory") + ] + covered = {s["state"] for s in states} + nonzero_elsewhere = { + state: entry["nonzero"] + for state, entry in sorted(counts.items()) + if entry["nonzero"] and state not in covered + } + result = { + "read_on": claims["read_on"], + "scope": ( + "Which states prescribe a tax table and how many scored references " + "sit there. No state's table is constructed and no reference is " + "recomputed." + ), + "how": claims["how"], + "states_checked": len(states), + "every_quotation_found": all(s["every_quotation_found"] for s in states), + "states_with_a_table": [s["state"] for s in table_states], + "states_without_a_table": [ + s["state"] for s in states if not s["table_prescribed"] + ], + "states_where_the_table_is_mandatory": [s["state"] for s in must], + "scored_nonzero_state_references": { + "all_states": sum(entry["nonzero"] for entry in counts.values()), + "in_states_checked": sum( + s["scored_nonzero_state_references"] for s in states + ), + "in_states_with_a_table": sum( + s["scored_nonzero_state_references"] for s in table_states + ), + "in_states_where_the_table_is_mandatory": sum( + s["scored_nonzero_state_references"] for s in must + ), + "with_cents_in_states_with_a_table": sum( + s["scored_nonzero_references_with_cents"] for s in table_states + ), + "in_states_not_checked": nonzero_elsewhere, + }, + "states": states, + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n") + for s in states: + print( + f"{s['state']} table={'yes' if s['table_prescribed'] else 'no ':3s} " + f"found={s['every_quotation_found']!s:5s} " + f"nonzero={s['scored_nonzero_state_references']} {s['ceiling'][:60]}" + ) + summary = {k: v for k, v in result.items() if k not in ("states", "how", "scope")} + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + if not result["every_quotation_found"]: + raise SystemExit("a quotation was not found in its document") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/sweep_tax_table.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/sweep_tax_table.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b94fdb6d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/sweep_tax_table.py @@ -0,0 +1,450 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference with the Tax Table in place of the rate schedule. + +The references come from policyengine-us, which applies the section 1 rate +schedule exactly. Two engine variables do it, each through ``tax_at_main_rates``: + + income_tax_main_rates the tax on taxable income less the gains + and dividends taxed at capital gain rates + (Form 1040 line 16 without them; line 22 + of the Qualified Dividends and Capital + Gain Tax Worksheet; line 44 of the + Schedule D Tax Worksheet) + tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates the tax on all taxable income (lines 24 + and 46 of those worksheets), which caps + the regular tax + +The Form 1040 instructions send each of those look-ups to the Tax Table when the +amount is under $100,000. This script reruns every household on the reference +system (the installed policyengine-us, the pre-freeze conventions and the +Maryland adapter: reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py, through the +reference builder's own compute_outputs) under three variants of those two +formulas and writes every output under each: + + schedule_copy the two formulas copied here with the look-up left as the + rate schedule. It must equal the baseline on every output, + which shows the copies are the engine's formulas. + table the look-up is the constructed 2026 Tax Table + (scripts/tax_table.py) for an amount under $100,000. + table_whole_dollar a look-up rounding sensitivity: as table, with each + looked-up amount rounded to a whole dollar first (a half + rounds up). At $100,000 or more the worksheet, which is + the schedule, is applied to the rounded amount. Nothing + else on the return is rounded, so this is not the + instructions' whole-dollar return, which rounds every + amount ("Rounding Off to Whole Dollars"). + +Everything downstream is the engine's: the capital gain cap, the alternative +minimum tax, the limit on nonrefundable credits, the refundable credits, and each +state's tax. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 uv run python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/sweep_tax_table.py + +Writes verification/sweep_tax_table.csv, tax_units.csv and sweep_summary.json, +and prints the moved outputs. The frozen run is read from git at the release +commit (scripts/release.py) and never written. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import json +import sys +import tempfile +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent)) +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) + +import release # noqa: E402 +import tax_table # noqa: E402 + +BUILDER = ( + ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-09-engine-upgrade/scripts/" + "build_references_upgrade.py" +) +OUT = HERE / "verification" +YEAR = 2026 +ENGINE = "2.38.6" +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +VARIANTS = ("schedule_copy", "table", "table_whole_dollar") +# The tolerance within which the baseline must reproduce a scored reference: the +# reference builder's own (FROZEN_TOL). +REPRODUCE_TOL = 1e-3 +TAX_UNIT_VARIABLES = ( + "taxable_income", + "capital_gains_excluded_from_taxable_income", + "income_tax_main_rates", + "tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates", + "capital_gains_tax", + "regular_tax_before_credits", + "alternative_minimum_tax", + "income_tax_before_credits", + "income_tax_capped_non_refundable_credits", + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "income_tax_refundable_credits", + "foreign_earned_income_exclusion", +) + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def load_module(name: str, path: Path): + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules[spec.name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def engine_schedule(system) -> dict: + """The engine's 2026 brackets, which must be Rev. Proc. 2025-32's.""" + bracket = system.parameters(f"{YEAR}-01-01").gov.irs.income.bracket + names = { + "single": "SINGLE", + "joint": "JOINT", + "separate": "SEPARATE", + "head_of_household": "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", + } + rates = tuple(round(float(bracket.rates[str(i)]) * 100) for i in range(1, 8)) + thresholds = { + status: tuple( + float(getattr(bracket.thresholds[str(i)], name)) for i in range(1, 7) + ) + for status, name in names.items() + } + surviving = tuple( + float(bracket.thresholds[str(i)].SURVIVING_SPOUSE) for i in range(1, 7) + ) + return {"rates": rates, "thresholds": thresholds, "surviving_spouse": surviving} + + +def check_engine_schedule(system) -> dict: + found = engine_schedule(system) + expected = {s: tuple(map(float, tax_table.SCHEDULES[YEAR][s])) for s in found["thresholds"]} + if found["rates"] != tax_table.RATES or found["thresholds"] != expected: + raise SystemExit(f"engine brackets are not Rev. Proc. 2025-32's: {found}") + if found["surviving_spouse"] != expected["joint"]: + raise SystemExit("surviving spouse brackets are not the joint brackets") + return found + + +def look_up(variant: str): + """The tax on an amount, given the engine's schedule tax on it.""" + + def figure(amount, filing_status, schedule_tax, period): + schedule_tax = np.asarray(schedule_tax, dtype=float) + if variant == "schedule_copy" or period.start.year != YEAR: + return schedule_tax + out = schedule_tax.copy() + names = filing_status.decode_to_str() + rounded = variant == "table_whole_dollar" + for i, value in enumerate(np.asarray(amount, dtype=float)): + column = tax_table.COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS[str(names[i])] + value = float(np.floor(value + 0.5)) if rounded else float(value) + if 0 <= value < tax_table.CEILING: + out[i] = tax_table.table_tax(value, column, YEAR) + elif rounded: + # The rounded amount is at or over the ceiling: the Tax + # Computation Worksheet on that amount, not the schedule tax on + # the unrounded one. + out[i] = tax_table.schedule_tax(value, column, YEAR) + return out + + return figure + + +def table_reform(variant: str): + """The two formulas, copied from policyengine-us 2.38.6, with the look-up swapped.""" + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + from policyengine_us.model_api import max_, where + from policyengine_us.variables.gov.irs.tax.federal_income.before_credits import ( + income_tax_main_rates as main_module, + ) + from policyengine_us.variables.gov.irs.tax.federal_income.before_credits import ( + tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates as all_module, + ) + from policyengine_us.variables.gov.irs.tax.federal_income.before_credits.tax_at_main_rates import ( # noqa: E501 + tax_at_main_rates, + ) + + figure = look_up(variant) + + def tax_on(amount, filing_status, bracket, period): + schedule = tax_at_main_rates(amount, filing_status, bracket) + return figure(amount, filing_status, schedule, period) + + class income_tax_main_rates(main_module.income_tax_main_rates): + def formula(tax_unit, period, parameters): + full_taxable_income = tax_unit( + "taxable_income_plus_section_911_exclusion", period + ) + cg_exclusion = tax_unit( + "capital_gains_excluded_from_taxable_income", period + ) + taxinc = max_(0, full_taxable_income - cg_exclusion) + bracket = parameters(period).gov.irs.income.bracket + filing_status = tax_unit("filing_status", period) + tax = tax_on(taxinc, filing_status, bracket, period) + excluded = max_(0, tax_unit("foreign_earned_income_exclusion", period)) + tax_on_excluded = tax_on(excluded, filing_status, bracket, period) + return where(excluded > 0, max_(0, tax - tax_on_excluded), tax) + + class tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates( + all_module.tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates + ): + def formula(tax_unit, period, parameters): + taxable_income = tax_unit( + "taxable_income_plus_section_911_exclusion", period + ) + bracket = parameters(period).gov.irs.income.bracket + filing_status = tax_unit("filing_status", period) + tax = tax_on(max_(0, taxable_income), filing_status, bracket, period) + excluded = max_(0, tax_unit("foreign_earned_income_exclusion", period)) + tax_on_excluded = tax_on(excluded, filing_status, bracket, period) + return where(excluded > 0, max_(0, tax - tax_on_excluded), tax) + + class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.update_variable(income_tax_main_rates) + self.update_variable(tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates) + + return reform + + +def tax_unit_rows(system, scenarios, build_situation, label: str) -> list[dict]: + """Each tax unit's federal regular tax chain on one system.""" + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + rows = [] + for _, srow in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(srow["scenario_json"])) + sim = Simulation( + tax_benefit_system=system, situation=build_situation(scenario) + ) + status = sim.calculate("filing_status", YEAR).decode_to_str() + itemizes = sim.calculate("tax_unit_itemizes", YEAR) + gains = sim.calculate("has_qdiv_or_ltcg", YEAR) + values = {v: sim.calculate(v, YEAR) for v in TAX_UNIT_VARIABLES} + for i in range(len(status)): + rows.append( + { + "system": label, + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": srow["state"], + "tax_unit": i, + "tax_units_in_household": len(status), + "filing_status": str(status[i]), + "itemizes": bool(itemizes[i]), + "has_qdiv_or_ltcg": bool(gains[i]), + **{v: float(values[v][i]) for v in TAX_UNIT_VARIABLES}, + } + ) + return rows + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scenarios", nargs="*", help="restrict to these ids (smoke)") + parser.add_argument("--out", default=str(OUT)) + args = parser.parse_args() + out = Path(args.out) + out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + installed = version("policyengine-us") + if installed != ENGINE: + raise SystemExit(f"need policyengine-us {ENGINE}, have {installed}") + + builder = load_module("tax_table_builder", BUILDER) + harness = load_module("tax_table_sweep_harness", builder.HARNESS) + final = load_module("tax_table_latest_final", builder.FIXES / "latest_final.py") + + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + from policybench.paper_results import moves_beyond_tolerance + from policybench.reference_exclusions import ( + exclusion_keys, + load_reference_exclusions, + ) + + run = release.materialize(Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="pb-tax-table-"))) + meta = json.loads((run / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + if meta["policyengine_bundles"]["us"]["model_version"] != ENGINE: + raise SystemExit("the frozen references were not built on this engine") + reference = pd.read_csv(run / "reference_outputs.csv") + frozen = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + excluded = exclusion_keys( + load_reference_exclusions(run / "reference_exclusions.json") + ) + scenarios = pd.read_csv(run / "scenarios.csv") + if args.scenarios: + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(args.scenarios)] + states = dict(zip(scenarios["scenario_id"], scenarios["state"])) + programs = meta["programs"] + + systems = {"baseline": CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=final.reform)} + engine_brackets = check_engine_schedule(systems["baseline"]) + for variant in VARIANTS: + systems[variant] = builder.corrected_system(final, [table_reform(variant)]) + + computed = { + name: builder.compute_outputs( + system, scenarios, programs, harness.build_situation + ) + for name, system in systems.items() + } + keys = list(computed["baseline"]) + rows = [] + for key in keys: + scenario_id, variable = key + row = { + "scenario_id": scenario_id, + "state": states[scenario_id], + "variable": variable, + "reference": float(frozen[key]), + "scored": key not in excluded, + **{name: computed[name][key] for name in systems}, + } + for variant in ("table", "table_whole_dollar"): + row[f"{variant}_delta"] = row[variant] - row["baseline"] + row[f"{variant}_moves"] = bool( + moves_beyond_tolerance(variable, row["baseline"], row[variant]) + ) + rows.append(row) + sweep = pd.DataFrame(rows) + + # The baseline is the release's reference system: every scored reference. + scored = sweep[sweep["scored"]] + off = scored[(scored["baseline"] - scored["reference"]).abs() > REPRODUCE_TOL] + if len(off): + raise SystemExit(f"baseline misses scored references:\n{off.to_string()}") + # The copied formulas are the engine's: bit-identical on every output. + drift = sweep[sweep["schedule_copy"] != sweep["baseline"]] + if len(drift): + raise SystemExit(f"copied formulas differ from the engine:\n{drift.to_string()}") + + units = pd.DataFrame( + [ + row + for name in ("baseline", "table") + for row in tax_unit_rows( + systems[name], scenarios, harness.build_situation, name + ) + ] + ) + + sweep.to_csv(out / "sweep_tax_table.csv", index=False) + units.to_csv(out / "tax_units.csv", index=False) + + federal = sweep[sweep["variable"] == FEDERAL] + moved = sweep[sweep["table_moves"]] + # Federal income tax outputs of returns with $100,000 or more of taxable + # income, where the look-up is the worksheet under every variant. + at_or_over = set( + units[ + (units["system"] == "baseline") + & (units["taxable_income"] >= tax_table.CEILING) + ]["scenario_id"] + ) + federal_over = federal[federal["scenario_id"].isin(at_or_over)] + summary = { + "engine": f"policyengine-us {installed}", + "policyengine_core": version("policyengine-core"), + "reference_system": { + "fixes": "reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py", + "fixes_sha256": sha256(builder.FIXES / "latest_final.py"), + "harness": builder.HARNESS_REL, + "harness_sha256": sha256(builder.HARNESS), + "builder": str(BUILDER.relative_to(ROOT)), + "builder_sha256": sha256(BUILDER), + }, + "release": {"tag": release.RELEASE, "commit": release.RELEASE_COMMIT}, + "inputs": { + name: release.SHA256[name] + for name in ( + "scenarios.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + ) + }, + "engine_brackets_2026": { + "rates_percent": list(engine_brackets["rates"]), + "thresholds": {k: list(v) for k, v in engine_brackets["thresholds"].items()}, + "equal_rev_proc_2025_32": True, + }, + "households": int(scenarios["scenario_id"].nunique()), + "outputs": int(len(sweep)), + "scored_outputs": int(sweep["scored"].sum()), + "baseline_reproduces_scored_references": True, + "baseline_max_abs_gap_to_scored_reference": float( + (scored["baseline"] - scored["reference"]).abs().max() + ), + "schedule_copy_identical_to_baseline": True, + "federal_outputs": int(len(federal)), + "federal_scored": int(federal["scored"].sum()), + "table_moves_by_variable": { + variable: { + "moved": int(len(group)), + "scored": int(group["scored"].sum()), + } + for variable, group in moved.groupby("variable") + }, + "table_changes_any_amount_by_variable": { + variable: { + "changed": int(len(group)), + "scored": int(group["scored"].sum()), + "max_abs_delta": float(group["table_delta"].abs().max()), + } + for variable, group in sweep[sweep["table_delta"].abs() > 1e-6].groupby( + "variable" + ) + }, + "look_up_rounding_sensitivity": { + "outputs_differing_from_table": int( + ((sweep["table"] - sweep["table_whole_dollar"]).abs() > 1e-6).sum() + ), + "federal_outputs_of_returns_at_100000_or_more": int(len(federal_over)), + "max_abs_difference_among_them": float( + (federal_over["table"] - federal_over["table_whole_dollar"]) + .abs() + .max() + ), + "differing_by_more_than_1": [ + {"scenario_id": r.scenario_id, "variable": r.variable, + "scored": bool(r.scored), "table": r.table, + "table_whole_dollar": r.table_whole_dollar} + for r in sweep[ + (sweep["table"] - sweep["table_whole_dollar"]).abs() > 1 + ].itertuples() + ], + }, + "foreign_earned_income_exclusion_households": int( + (units["foreign_earned_income_exclusion"] != 0).sum() + ), + } + (out / "sweep_summary.json").write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n") + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 500): + print( + moved[ + ["scenario_id", "state", "variable", "scored", "baseline", "table", + "table_delta"] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/tax_table.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/tax_table.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c20e75b5 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/tax_table.py @@ -0,0 +1,184 @@ +"""The Tax Table of 26 U.S.C. 3, constructed from a section 1 rate schedule. + +Section 3(a)(1) imposes, "in lieu of the tax imposed by section 1", a tax +"determined under tables ... prescribed by the Secretary", whose amounts "shall be +computed on the basis of the rates prescribed by section 1". The Form 1040 +instructions prescribe the table for taxable income under $100,000 (line 16, and +the two capital gain worksheets for each amount they look up). + +No document read for this audit states how the IRS fills the table. The rule here +is inferred from the published tables and then checked against every cell of them +(tests/test_tax_table_audit.py): the tax on the midpoint of the income band at the +schedule's rates, rounded to a whole dollar with a half rounding up. Bands are +$5, $10 and $10 wide below $25, $25 wide to $3,000 and $50 wide to $100,000. + +All arithmetic is in integers. Thresholds are whole dollars and rates whole +percents, so a midpoint is a whole number of half dollars and the tax on it a +whole number of half cents: no float decides a rounding tie. + +SCHEDULES holds the two years' rate schedules as the revenue procedures print +them (thresholds and rates below; the base amounts in BASE_AMOUNTS are the +procedures' own, which the tests rebuild from the thresholds and rates): + 2025 Rev. Proc. 2024-40, section 3.01, Tables 1 to 4 + 2026 Rev. Proc. 2025-32, section 4.01, Tables 1 to 4 +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +CEILING = 100_000 +STATUSES = ("single", "joint", "separate", "head_of_household") +# The Tax Table has four columns; a qualifying surviving spouse uses the joint +# one ("This column must also be used by a qualifying surviving spouse"). +COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS = { + "SINGLE": "single", + "JOINT": "joint", + "SEPARATE": "separate", + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": "head_of_household", + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": "joint", +} +RATES = (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 37) +# The upper threshold of each bracket but the last, in dollars. +SCHEDULES = { + 2025: { + "joint": (23_850, 96_950, 206_700, 394_600, 501_050, 751_600), + "head_of_household": (17_000, 64_850, 103_350, 197_300, 250_500, 626_350), + "single": (11_925, 48_475, 103_350, 197_300, 250_525, 626_350), + "separate": (11_925, 48_475, 103_350, 197_300, 250_525, 375_800), + }, + 2026: { + "joint": (24_800, 100_800, 211_400, 403_550, 512_450, 768_700), + "head_of_household": (17_700, 67_450, 105_700, 201_750, 256_200, 640_600), + "single": (12_400, 50_400, 105_700, 201_775, 256_225, 640_600), + "separate": (12_400, 50_400, 105_700, 201_775, 256_225, 384_350), + }, +} +# "$X plus r% of the excess over $T": the X the revenue procedure prints for each +# bracket above the first, in cents. +BASE_AMOUNTS = { + 2025: { + "joint": (238_500, 1_115_700, 3_530_200, 8_039_800, 11_446_200, 20_215_450), + "head_of_household": ( + 170_000, + 744_200, + 1_591_200, + 3_846_000, + 5_548_400, + 18_703_150, + ), + "single": (119_250, 557_850, 1_765_100, 4_019_900, 5_723_100, 18_876_975), + "separate": (119_250, 557_850, 1_765_100, 4_019_900, 5_723_100, 10_107_725), + }, + 2026: { + "joint": (248_000, 1_160_000, 3_593_200, 8_204_800, 11_689_600, 20_658_350), + "head_of_household": ( + 177_000, + 774_000, + 1_615_500, + 3_920_700, + 5_663_100, + 19_117_100, + ), + "single": (124_000, 580_000, 1_796_600, 4_102_400, 5_844_800, 19_297_925), + "separate": (124_000, 580_000, 1_796_600, 4_102_400, 5_844_800, 10_329_175), + }, +} + + +def band(taxable_income: float) -> tuple[int, int]: + """The Tax Table band [at least, but less than) holding an amount under $100,000.""" + if not 0 <= taxable_income < CEILING: + raise ValueError(f"the Tax Table covers 0 to under {CEILING}: {taxable_income}") + if taxable_income < 5: + return 0, 5 + if taxable_income < 15: + return 5, 15 + if taxable_income < 25: + return 15, 25 + width = 25 if taxable_income < 3_000 else 50 + lower = int(taxable_income // width) * width + return lower, lower + width + + +def bands() -> list[tuple[int, int]]: + """Every band of the Tax Table, in order.""" + out = [(0, 5), (5, 15), (15, 25)] + out += [(lower, lower + 25) for lower in range(25, 3_000, 25)] + out += [(lower, lower + 50) for lower in range(3_000, CEILING, 50)] + return out + + +def _half_cents(half_dollars: int, thresholds: tuple[int, ...]) -> int: + """Schedule tax, in half cents, on an amount given in half dollars.""" + total = 0 + bottom = 0 + for rate, top in zip(RATES, (*thresholds, None)): + upper = half_dollars if top is None else min(half_dollars, 2 * top) + if upper > bottom: + total += rate * (upper - bottom) + if top is None or half_dollars <= 2 * top: + break + bottom = 2 * top + return total + + +def schedule_tax_cents(taxable_income_cents: int, status: str, year: int) -> int: + """Rate schedule tax in cents on a whole number of cents, half a cent rounding up.""" + thresholds = SCHEDULES[year][status] + total = 0 # in units of a hundredth of a cent + bottom = 0 + for rate, top in zip(RATES, (*thresholds, None)): + upper = ( + taxable_income_cents + if top is None + else min(taxable_income_cents, 100 * top) + ) + if upper > bottom: + total += rate * (upper - bottom) + if top is None or taxable_income_cents <= 100 * top: + break + bottom = 100 * top + return (total + 50) // 100 + + +def schedule_tax(taxable_income: float, status: str, year: int) -> float: + """Rate schedule tax in dollars (the references' convention), to the cent.""" + return schedule_tax_cents(round(taxable_income * 100), status, year) / 100 + + +def table_tax(taxable_income: float, status: str, year: int) -> int: + """The constructed Tax Table amount for taxable income under $100,000.""" + lower, upper = band(taxable_income) + # The midpoint is (lower + upper) / 2 dollars, so lower + upper half dollars. + half_cents = _half_cents(lower + upper, SCHEDULES[year][status]) + return (half_cents + 100) // 200 + + +def line_16_tax(taxable_income: float, status: str, year: int) -> float: + """Tax by the instructions' method: the table under $100,000, else the worksheet. + + The Tax Computation Worksheet multiplies the amount by the bracket's rate and + subtracts a fixed amount, which is the rate schedule exactly. + """ + if taxable_income < CEILING: + return float(table_tax(taxable_income, status, year)) + return schedule_tax(taxable_income, status, year) + + +def marginal_rate(taxable_income: float, status: str, year: int) -> float: + """The schedule's rate on the next dollar of taxable income.""" + for rate, top in zip(RATES, (*SCHEDULES[year][status], None)): + if top is None or taxable_income < top: + return rate / 100 + raise AssertionError("unreachable") + + +def constructed_table(year: int) -> list[dict]: + """Every row of the constructed Tax Table for a year.""" + return [ + { + "at_least": lower, + "less_than": upper, + **{status: table_tax(lower, status, year) for status in STATUSES}, + } + for lower, upper in bands() + ] diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/top_rate_detection.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/top_rate_detection.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d49981c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/top_rate_detection.py @@ -0,0 +1,96 @@ +"""How often a random property test notices a wrong top rate, by income generator. + +The audit's first mutation run left a 39 percent top rate standing. This +reproduces why. The property is the one tests/test_tax_table_audit.py states (no +dollar of income is taxed above 37 percent), run against a schedule whose top +rate is 39 percent, 40 times with seeds 0 to 39 and 1,000 examples each, under +two ways of drawing an income: + + cents one integer of cents from $0 to $1,000,000, as the test first + drew it. Hypothesis draws a range wider than 24 bits mostly + from its small end, so few draws reach the top bracket. + dollars_and_cents whole dollars to $2,000,000 and cents drawn apart, as the + test draws it now. + +A run that raises no failure missed the fault. Writes +verification/top_rate_detection.json. + + uv run python reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/scripts/top_rate_detection.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.metadata +import importlib.util +import json +import math +from pathlib import Path + +from hypothesis import given, seed, settings +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +RUNS = 40 +EXAMPLES = 1000 +WRONG_RATES = (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 39) +GENERATORS = { + "cents": st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=1_000_000 * 100), + "dollars_and_cents": st.builds( + lambda dollars, cents: 100 * dollars + cents, + st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=2_000_000), + st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=99), + ), +} + + +def broken_table(): + path = Path(__file__).with_name("tax_table.py") + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("top_rate_tax_table", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + module.RATES = WRONG_RATES + return module + + +def missed(table, incomes, number: int) -> bool: + """Whether one seeded run of the property passes against the wrong rate.""" + + @seed(number) + @settings(max_examples=EXAMPLES, deadline=None, database=None) + @given( + incomes, incomes, st.sampled_from(table.STATUSES), st.sampled_from((2025, 2026)) + ) + def no_dollar_is_taxed_above_37_percent(a, b, status, year): + low, high = sorted((a, b)) + rise = table.schedule_tax_cents(high, status, year) - table.schedule_tax_cents( + low, status, year + ) + assert rise <= math.ceil(0.37 * (high - low)) + 1 + + try: + no_dollar_is_taxed_above_37_percent() + except AssertionError: + return False + return True + + +def main() -> None: + table = broken_table() + result = { + "hypothesis": importlib.metadata.version("hypothesis"), + "fault": "the top rate is 39 percent", + "runs_per_generator": RUNS, + "examples_per_run": EXAMPLES, + "seeds": [0, RUNS - 1], + "runs_that_missed_the_fault": { + name: sum(missed(table, incomes, number) for number in range(RUNS)) + for name, incomes in GENERATORS.items() + }, + } + out = HERE / "verification" / "top_rate_detection.json" + out.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/federal_cells.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/federal_cells.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..eeaef372 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/federal_cells.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +scenario_id,state,scored,filing_status,head_age,has_farm_income,itemizes,capital_gain_worksheet,taxable_income,taxable_income_class,amount_at_ordinary_rates,tax_table_applies,band,schedule_tax_on_amount,constructed_table_tax_on_amount,irs_draft_2026_table_tax_on_amount,marginal_rate,schedule_regular_tax,table_regular_tax,nonrefundable_credits_schedule,nonrefundable_credits_table,reference,schedule_value,constructed_table_value,difference,differs_beyond_1,table_whole_dollar_value +scenario_000,TX,True,SINGLE,77,False,False,False,26287.11,under_100000,26287.11,True,26250-26300,2906.45,2905,2905,0.12,2906.45,2905.0,0.0,0.0,2906.45361328125,2906.45361328125,2905.0,-1.45361328125,True,2905.0 +scenario_001,VA,True,JOINT,71,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_002,WA,False,JOINT,77,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_003,TX,True,JOINT,64,False,False,True,151090.25,100000_or_more,147330.25,False,,21836.65,,,,22400.65,22400.65,0.0,0.0,22400.654296875,22400.654296875,22400.654296875,0.0,False,22400.599609375 +scenario_004,NY,True,JOINT,62,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_005,CA,False,JOINT,35,False,False,True,509806.25,100000_or_more,431886.25,False,,91115.6,,,,102803.6,102803.6,0.0,0.0,106505.8984375,108525.578125,108525.578125,0.0,False,108525.5 +scenario_007,ID,True,SINGLE,56,False,False,False,32964.12,under_100000,32964.12,True,32950-33000,3707.7,3709,3709,0.12,3707.7,3709.0,0.0,0.0,3707.695068359375,3707.695068359375,3709.0,1.304931640625,True,3709.0 +scenario_008,NJ,True,JOINT,42,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_009,NC,True,JOINT,57,False,False,False,73700.0,under_100000,73700.0,True,73700-73750,8348.0,8351,8351,0.12,8348.0,8351.0,0.0,0.0,8348.0,8348.0,8351.0,3.0,True,8351.0 +scenario_012,MS,True,JOINT,40,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_013,AZ,True,SINGLE,80,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_014,WV,True,JOINT,41,False,False,False,56727.65,under_100000,56727.65,True,56700-56750,6311.32,6311,6311,0.12,6311.32,6311.0,0.0,0.0,6311.31787109375,6311.31787109375,6311.0,-0.31787109375,False,6311.0 +scenario_015,IN,True,SINGLE,36,False,False,False,26809.38,under_100000,26809.38,True,26800-26850,2969.13,2971,2971,0.12,2969.13,2971.0,0.0,0.0,2969.1259765625,2969.1259765625,2971.0,1.8740234375,True,2971.0 +scenario_016,FL,True,SINGLE,49,False,True,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_018,AZ,True,SINGLE,53,False,False,False,45492.09,under_100000,45492.09,True,45450-45500,5211.05,5209,5209,0.12,5211.05,5209.0,0.0,0.0,5211.05078125,5211.05078125,5209.0,-2.05078125,True,5209.0 +scenario_020,TX,False,SINGLE,36,False,False,True,283854.19,100000_or_more,283823.59,False,,68107.51,,,,68112.09,68112.09,0.0,0.0,68056.7109375,68334.734375,68334.734375,0.0,False,68334.875 +scenario_021,MO,True,SINGLE,85,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_022,CA,False,SINGLE,77,False,True,False,74552.59,under_100000,74552.59,True,74550-74600,11113.57,11119,11119,0.22,11113.57,11119.0,0.0,0.0,11113.5703125,11113.5703125,11119.0,5.4296875,True,11119.0 +scenario_023,CA,True,SINGLE,28,False,False,False,6434.34,under_100000,6434.34,True,6400-6450,643.43,643,643,0.1,643.43,643.0,0.0,0.0,643.43359375,643.43359375,643.0,-0.43359375,False,643.0 +scenario_025,OH,True,JOINT,61,False,False,False,62725.3,under_100000,62725.3,True,62700-62750,7031.04,7031,7031,0.12,7031.04,7031.0,0.0,0.0,7031.03564453125,7031.03564453125,7031.0,-0.03564453125,False,7031.0 +scenario_026,NC,True,JOINT,48,False,False,False,42354.26,under_100000,42354.26,True,42350-42400,4586.51,4589,4589,0.12,4586.51,4589.0,4586.51,4589.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_027,CT,True,JOINT,68,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_028,PA,True,HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD,45,False,False,False,35860.0,under_100000,35860.0,True,35850-35900,3949.2,3951,3951,0.12,3949.2,3951.0,3949.2,3951.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_029,OK,True,SINGLE,21,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_030,TX,True,SINGLE,23,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_031,CA,True,SINGLE,67,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_032,MN,True,JOINT,50,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_033,SD,False,JOINT,69,False,False,False,35951.23,under_100000,35951.23,True,35950-36000,3818.15,3821,3821,0.12,3818.15,3821.0,0.0,0.0,3818.148193359375,3818.148193359375,3821.0,2.851806640625,True,3821.0 +scenario_036,NJ,True,SINGLE,56,False,False,False,43120.0,under_100000,43120.0,True,43100-43150,4926.4,4927,4927,0.12,4926.4,4927.0,0.0,0.0,4926.39990234375,4926.39990234375,4927.0,0.60009765625,False,4927.0 +scenario_037,NC,True,SINGLE,44,False,False,False,15810.43,under_100000,15810.43,True,15800-15850,1649.25,1651,1651,0.12,1649.25,1651.0,0.0,0.0,1649.2513427734375,1649.2513427734375,1651.0,1.7486572265625,True,1651.0 +scenario_038,LA,True,JOINT,25,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_039,VA,True,SINGLE,61,False,False,False,63109.22,under_100000,63109.22,True,63100-63150,8596.03,8600,8600,0.22,8596.03,8600.0,0.0,0.0,8596.0283203125,8596.0283203125,8600.0,3.9716796875,True,8600.0 +scenario_040,AZ,True,JOINT,73,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_042,WI,True,SINGLE,79,True,False,True,26430.71,under_100000,21749.71,True,21700-21750,2361.96,2359,2359,0.12,2361.96,2359.0,0.0,0.0,2361.96484375,2361.96484375,2359.0,-2.96484375,True,2365.0 +scenario_043,CO,True,SINGLE,66,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_044,KS,True,JOINT,66,False,False,False,0.0,zero,0.0,False,,0.0,,,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,False,0.0 +scenario_045,MI,True,SINGLE,44,False,False,False,20175.59,under_100000,20175.59,True,20150-20200,2173.07,2173,2173,0.12,2173.07,2173.0,0.0,0.0,2173.07080078125,2173.07080078125,2173.0,-0.07080078125,False,2173.0 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b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/model_counts.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8f1b43ad --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/model_counts.csv @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ +model,cells,matches_schedule,matches_table,matches_both,matches_neither,whole_dollar_answers,explanations_mentioning_tax_table +gpt-6-sol,21,16,0,0,5,2,0 +claude-opus-5.5,21,12,1,1,7,2,0 +gpt-5.6-sol,21,12,0,3,6,11,0 +claude-sonnet-5.5,21,10,0,2,9,17,0 +gpt-6-luna,21,10,0,3,8,13,0 +gpt-6-astra,21,12,0,0,9,2,0 +claude-fable-5.1,21,9,0,0,12,3,0 +kimi-k3,21,14,0,1,6,3,0 +gpt-6.1-sol,21,11,0,0,10,3,0 +gpt-5.6-luna,21,9,0,0,12,6,0 +ox-alpha,21,8,0,1,12,10,0 +gpt-5.5,21,7,0,1,13,8,0 +inkling,21,5,0,3,13,20,0 +grok-4.7,21,0,0,0,21,11,0 +gpt-5.6-terra,21,6,0,0,15,11,0 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,21,5,0,0,16,3,0 +grok-4.6,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +gemini-3.8-flash,21,0,0,0,21,10,0 +grok-4.5,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +claude-opus-5,21,1,0,0,20,21,0 +claude-fable-5,21,1,0,1,19,21,0 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,21,0,0,0,21,3,0 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,21,0,0,0,21,17,0 +gemini-3.7-flash,21,1,0,0,20,12,0 +gemini-3.6-flash,21,0,0,0,21,6,0 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,21,0,0,0,21,20,0 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,21,0,0,0,21,19,0 +glm-5.3,21,4,0,0,17,12,0 +gemini-3-flash-preview,21,0,0,0,21,8,0 +claude-opus-4.7,21,2,0,0,19,21,0 +grok-4.3,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +claude-sonnet-4.6,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +grok-build-0.1,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +gemini-3.5-flash,21,0,0,0,21,15,0 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,21,0,0,0,21,19,1 +deepseek-v4-pro,21,0,1,0,20,8,0 +claude-haiku-5.5,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +qwen-3.7-max,21,0,0,0,21,11,0 +glm-5.2,21,0,0,0,21,7,0 +claude-opus-4.8,21,2,0,0,19,21,0 +minimax-m3,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +qwen3.8-max,21,0,0,0,21,16,0 +claude-haiku-4.5,21,0,0,0,21,21,1 +gpt-5.4-mini,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 +claude-sonnet-5,21,0,0,0,21,21,1 +kimi-k2.6,21,0,0,0,21,3,0 +gpt-5.4-nano,21,0,0,0,21,21,0 diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/mutants_tax_table.txt b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/mutants_tax_table.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ed2cfc7e --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/mutants_tax_table.txt @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +Each line breaks scripts/tax_table.py, scripts/parse_irs_tax_table.py, +scripts/sweep_tax_table.py's look-up or scripts/independent_scorer.py one way +and runs tests/test_tax_table_audit.py (-x), +without the manifest test, which would fail on any edit. +scripts/mutants_tax_table.py holds each break's exact text. A mutant is +killed only when pytest ran and a test failed (exit status 1). + +Unmodified: 53 passed, 1 deselected in 27.17s + + 1. killed a half dollar rounds down [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 2 passed, 1 deselected in 4.09s + 2. killed the tax is truncated to a dollar [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 2 passed, 1 deselected in 59.40s + 3. killed the tax is taken at the band's lower bound [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 2 passed, 1 deselected in 4.12s + 4. killed the tax is taken at the band's upper bound [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 2 passed, 1 deselected in 6.31s + 5. killed $25 bands run to $5,000 [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 14 passed, 1 deselected in 7.00s + 6. killed every band above $25 is $50 wide [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 1 passed, 1 deselected in 2.80s + 7. killed the first band runs to $10 [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 6 passed, 1 deselected in 7.69s + 8. killed a 2026 single threshold is $50 off [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 4 passed, 1 deselected in 8.07s + 9. killed a 2026 joint threshold is $50 off [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 18 passed, 1 deselected in 6.99s +10. killed a 2025 head of household threshold is $50 off [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 21 passed, 1 deselected in 8.06s +11. killed the 12 percent rate is 15 percent [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 15 passed, 1 deselected in 7.50s +12. killed the top rate is 39 percent [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 23 passed, 1 deselected in 7.88s +13. killed the ceiling is $110,000 [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 14 passed, 1 deselected in 6.60s +14. killed the table is used at exactly the ceiling [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 5 passed, 1 deselected in 5.80s +15. killed a surviving spouse reads the single column [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 39 passed, 1 deselected in 29.77s +16. killed the schedule skips the top of a bracket [tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 2 passed, 1 deselected in 7.41s +17. killed the parser accepts a table with bands missing [parse_irs_tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 36 passed, 1 deselected in 9.28s +18. killed the parser reads past the Tax Table [parse_irs_tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 36 passed, 1 deselected in 8.53s +19. killed an amount that rounds up to the ceiling keeps the unrounded schedule tax [sweep_tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 47 passed, 1 deselected in 32.21s +20. killed the looked-up amount is truncated, not rounded [sweep_tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 47 passed, 1 deselected in 24.38s +21. killed the table is looked up in every year [sweep_tax_table.py]: 1 failed, 47 passed, 1 deselected in 22.25s +22. killed the exact-match bound is exclusive [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 41.91s +23. killed the exact-match bound is two dollars [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 29.87s +24. killed a missing answer is scored as zero [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 42.32s +25. killed excluded outputs are scored [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 18.75s +26. killed a group's weight is not split over its outputs [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 162.35s (0:02:42) +27. killed a household's weights are not scaled to one [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 47.85s +28. killed flags are scored as amounts [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 37 passed, 1 deselected in 9.22s +29. killed an answer that is not 0 or 1 counts as eligible [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 16.46s +30. killed the second accepted value is ignored [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 40.96s +31. killed the second accepted value replaces the reference [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 55.96s +32. killed a person's outputs are not grouped [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 37 passed, 1 deselected in 9.23s +33. killed the shorter person suffix is matched first [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 37 passed, 1 deselected in 9.62s +34. killed a model's rate is a sum over households [independent_scorer.py]: 1 failed, 38 passed, 1 deselected in 16.45s + +34 of 34 mutants killed, 0 survived, 0 errored diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/pytest_tax_table_audit.txt b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/pytest_tax_table_audit.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..be014a98 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/pytest_tax_table_audit.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +...................................................... [100%] +54 passed in 34.49s diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/state_tax_tables.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/state_tax_tables.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..69b3950a --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/state_tax_tables.json @@ -0,0 +1,535 @@ +{ + "read_on": "2026-10-10", + "scope": "Which states prescribe a tax table and how many scored references sit there. No state's table is constructed and no reference is recomputed.", + "how": "A Subfleet research lane (job 20261010-130415-pb-taxtable-states) read each state's resident instructions and reported these rows. scripts/state_tax_tables.py then fetched each address and checked each quotation against the document. Band widths are as the lane read them and were not rechecked.", + "states_checked": 21, + "every_quotation_found": true, + "states_with_a_table": [ + "CA", + "NJ", + "MD", + "NY", + "VA", + "OK", + "MN", + "AL", + "CT", + "WI", + "AR", + "WV" + ], + "states_without_a_table": [ + "NC", + "OH", + "IN", + "AZ", + "MI", + "PA", + "IL", + "ID", + "GA" + ], + "states_where_the_table_is_mandatory": [ + "CA", + "MD", + "NY", + "OK", + "MN", + "AL", + "WI", + "WV" + ], + "scored_nonzero_state_references": { + "all_states": 31, + "in_states_checked": 31, + "in_states_with_a_table": 16, + "in_states_where_the_table_is_mandatory": 11, + "with_cents_in_states_with_a_table": 16, + "in_states_not_checked": {} + }, + "states": [ + { + "state": "NC", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.25%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "To calculate your North Carolina income tax, multiply Line 14 by the income tax rate of 4.25% (0.0425).", + "url": "https://www.ncdor.gov/2025-d-401-individual-income-tax-instructions/open", + "document_sha256": "ceaade9246b24d4f7e504919fafd74787ebec17db6d6bbcf1c954f71cfdc185b", + "document_bytes": 615117, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 7, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 5, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 5 + }, + { + "state": "CA", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$100 ($50 first row)", + "note": "The research lane could not open ftb.ca.gov; the quotation was read from the 2025 Form 540 booklet on 2026-10-10.", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Tax Table – If your taxable income on line 19 is $100,000 or less, use the tax table.", + "url": "https://www.ftb.ca.gov/forms/2025/2025-540-booklet.html", + "document_sha256": "a93d6ba073d0344306b495bfb014e87b98c6e86e926b32e53a165c1d9f87793a", + "document_bytes": 298022, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 4, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 3, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 3 + }, + { + "state": "NJ", + "instructions_tax_year": "2018 table (posted by Treasury for 2018 and later)", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "optional on the Division's rates page; the table's own heading says 'Use this table'", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Use this table if your New Jersey taxable income on Line 40 is less than $100,000. If your taxable income is $100,000 or more, you must use the Tax Rate Schedules on page 61.", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/pdf/current/taxtable.pdf", + "document_sha256": "87599dcabc26fe7c1a5da5092bceb9a79d2656740e90ab1131730db15b064410", + "document_bytes": 331730, + "found": true + }, + { + "quote": "If your New Jersey taxable income is less than $100,000, you can use the New Jersey Tax Table or New Jersey Rate Schedules.", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/taxtables.shtml", + "document_sha256": "8f46e7eeb262736c1b48829b15dfe539d997eae803f6bb4b1e428bd5848d5666", + "document_bytes": 48228, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 4, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 2 + }, + { + "state": "OH", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: rate schedule only", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "The booklet's text never uses the words 'tax table'.", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "2025 Ohio Income Tax Brackets for Ohio IT 1040", + "url": "https://dam.assets.ohio.gov/image/upload/v1735920104/tax.ohio.gov/forms/ohio_individual/individual/2025/it1040-booklet.pdf", + "document_sha256": "931b21e7484ba96e561cf2346d8a7d2a8005bd990724b5903c9a90acede5f50e", + "document_bytes": 3427251, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 4, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 2 + }, + { + "state": "MD", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable net income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "You must use the tax tables if your taxable income is less than $100,000.", + "url": "https://www.marylandcomptroller.gov/content/dam/mdcomp/tax/instructions/2025/resident-booklet.pdf", + "document_sha256": "17bc9f77e055c0570daee8840921e635b1b0952a39d54f28e33516699b9b6ba5", + "document_bytes": 2860595, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 2 + }, + { + "state": "IN", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 3%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "State adjusted gross income tax: multiply line 7 by 3% (.03)", + "url": "https://forms.in.gov/Download.aspx?id=16914", + "document_sha256": "0b5d74cffea1dc758eff500a8d74bf020b53b977b57e04b12ce344316234b785", + "document_bytes": 3242429, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 2 + }, + { + "state": "NY", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "NYS AGI $107,650 or less and NYS taxable income less than $65,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50 (narrower in the first rows)", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "NYS adjusted gross income is $107,650 or less (line 33)", + "url": "https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/file/tax-tables/2025.htm", + "document_sha256": "bc828e30dca14f29b5a081ce2902712b002b91058c8d56b2954b466d10145341", + "document_bytes": 26674, + "found": true + }, + { + "quote": "NYS taxable income is less than $65,000 (line 38)", + "url": "https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/file/tax-tables/2025.htm", + "document_sha256": "bc828e30dca14f29b5a081ce2902712b002b91058c8d56b2954b466d10145341", + "document_bytes": 26674, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 5, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "AZ", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 2.5%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "For tax year 2023 and beyond, there are no optional or X&Y tax tables to post due to Arizona's flat tax rate of 2.5%.", + "url": "https://azdor.gov/forms/individual/form-140-optional-tax-tables", + "document_sha256": "5a8539a6c0e60b71106db6a8551f86059190291c29a9249823b7d70c75f8417c", + "document_bytes": 149434, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 4, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "MI", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.25%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "The research lane could not open michigan.gov; the quotation was read from the 2025 Form MI-1040 on 2026-10-10.", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Multiply line 16 by 4.25% (0", + "url": "https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/-/media/Project/Websites/taxes/Forms/IIT/TY2025/MI-1040.pdf", + "document_sha256": "98e6d52b88e412a5d51529bc3144bd137eb24554e30c918f63fdcf82cf9cd01c", + "document_bytes": 323997, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 3, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "VA", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income listed in the table (2025 table ends at $98,356)", + "mandatory": "optional", + "band_width_as_reported": "variable: about $50 at 2%, about $35 at 5.75%", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "The tax table can be used if your Virginia taxable income is listed in the table. Otherwise, use the Tax Rate Schedule above.", + "url": "https://www.tax.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/vatax-pdf/tax-table-2025.pdf", + "document_sha256": "0d596f4107df528fb3c43cfc07051e450b41bf101f6a39268dc0df5064d879b6", + "document_bytes": 1574527, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 3, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "PA", + "instructions_tax_year": "current (page not dated)", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 3.07%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Pennsylvania personal income tax is levied at the rate of 3.07 percent against taxable income", + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/revenue/resources/tax-types-and-information/personal-income-tax", + "document_sha256": "8ec8e17e48efec960ed88c94fb932ecb9d4cd3704df0fa01ed28b48dfd5deb91", + "document_bytes": 421817, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 3, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "OK", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Use this table if your taxable income is less than $100,000.", + "url": "https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/tax/documents/forms/individuals/current/511-Pkt.pdf", + "document_sha256": "c90cf30381cca6262ec94050acde8db1ee58885360f0af4ec21e045d1cc5a572", + "document_bytes": 1299105, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "MN", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "Form M1 line 9 less than $86,800", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$100 ($20 and $80 in the first rows)", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "If line 9 of Form M1 is less than $86,800, you must use the tax table on pages 32 through 38.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/sites/default/files/2026-10/m1-inst-25.pdf", + "document_sha256": "e3bacdd198233bbacf26488a3d7b1a8f500f8bc524e79a77c67b72529790d1d2", + "document_bytes": 4731281, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "AL", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "mandatory (except NOL carryover or carryback)", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50 under $1,000, then $100", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "You must figure your tax from the Tax Tables unless you are claiming a carryover or carryback Net Operating Loss from another year.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.alabama.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/25f40bk.pdf", + "document_sha256": "7871a80bd580dff9bbfe0fd8252664bfd2394d3c51bd98199cdd5162a4b46699", + "document_bytes": 2892056, + "found": true + }, + { + "quote": "If taxable income is over $100,000, use the following worksheet to figure your tax.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.alabama.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/25f40bk.pdf", + "document_sha256": "7871a80bd580dff9bbfe0fd8252664bfd2394d3c51bd98199cdd5162a4b46699", + "document_bytes": 2892056, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "IL", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 4.95%", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Residents: Multiply Line 11 by 4.95% (.0495). Cannot be less than zero.", + "url": "https://tax.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/tax/forms/incometax/documents/currentyear/individual/il-1040.pdf", + "document_sha256": "7af662f99b31f6aa0d00df5ae93c2a50c4c15e01a0c1dcf5f722fc0bde0799cd", + "document_bytes": 863769, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "CT", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "Connecticut AGI less than or equal to $102,000 (keyed on AGI; exemptions and credits included)", + "mandatory": "optional", + "band_width_as_reported": "$50", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "If your Connecticut adjusted gross income is less than or equal to $102,000, you may use the Tax Tables on the DRS website", + "url": "https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/drs/forms/2025/income/2025-ct-1040-instructions_1225.pdf", + "document_sha256": "0e2cabf0fd48b9fa86d926adfb9e3c6dad3cbf17badfcf11321d8e4bceb24386", + "document_bytes": 998064, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "WI", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income less than $100,000", + "mandatory": "mandatory", + "band_width_as_reported": "$100 ($20, $20 and $60 in the first rows)", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Use this Tax Table if your taxable income is less than $100,000. If $100,000 or more, use the Tax Computation Worksheet on page 44.", + "url": "https://www.revenue.wi.gov/TaxForms2025/2025-Form1-Inst.pdf", + "document_sha256": "dd7e88901ac4ec560aaa85024511a918656e2d90aaf7bcc10b37d615e505913c", + "document_bytes": 978872, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 2, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "AR", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "net taxable income $100,000 or less", + "mandatory": "optional; mandatory if itemizing", + "band_width_as_reported": "$100", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "You must use this tax table if you itemize your deductions or if you are filing a Fiduciary Tax Return.", + "url": "https://www.dfa.arkansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025_TaxTables.pdf", + "document_sha256": "4fcca7d4cc483781067dbef7059a04dc05a8e5c2f1eea622825de7a42dcb9b42", + "document_bytes": 376527, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "ID", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: worksheet, flat 5.3% above $4,811 / $9,622", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Otherwise, complete the worksheet below to calculate the Idaho tax due.", + "url": "https://tax.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/forms/EIN00046/EIN00046_03-02-2026.pdf", + "document_sha256": "952263e92f7c096b10aba50555cc7c166c78efc3b6ce6e5029d4837404553005", + "document_bytes": 3040929, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "GA", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": false, + "ceiling": "none: flat rate 5.19%, rounded to nearest dollar", + "mandatory": "n.a.", + "band_width_as_reported": "n.a.", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "Multiply the amount on Line 15c by 5.19%. Round to nearest dollar.", + "url": "https://dor.georgia.gov/document/document/2025-it-511-individual-income-tax-booklet/download", + "document_sha256": "ae43633e68ca423609607b0f93b1ebcd6056bce06ffb91829c448292e48a693f", + "document_bytes": 5218740, + "found": true + } + ], + "every_quotation_found": true, + "scored_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_state_references": 1, + "scored_nonzero_references_with_cents": 1 + }, + { + "state": "WV", + "instructions_tax_year": "2025", + "table_prescribed": true, + "ceiling": "taxable income $100,000 or less (not available to married filing separately)", + "mandatory": "mandatory in effect", + "band_width_as_reported": "$25 in the first rows, then $100, then $60", + "note": "", + "quotations": [ + { + "quote": "If your taxable income is over $100,000 refer to the Tax Rate Schedules on page 35.", + "url": "https://tax.wv.gov/Documents/PIT/2025/it140.TaxTable.2025.pdf", + "document_sha256": 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a/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/tax_units.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/tax_units.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b93d5359 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table/verification/tax_units.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +system,scenario_id,state,tax_unit,tax_units_in_household,filing_status,itemizes,has_qdiv_or_ltcg,taxable_income,capital_gains_excluded_from_taxable_income,income_tax_main_rates,tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates,capital_gains_tax,regular_tax_before_credits,alternative_minimum_tax,income_tax_before_credits,income_tax_capped_non_refundable_credits,income_tax_before_refundable_credits,income_tax_refundable_credits,foreign_earned_income_exclusion +baseline,scenario_000,TX,0,1,SINGLE,False,False,26287.11328125,0.0,2906.45361328125,2906.45361328125,0.0,2906.45361328125,0.0,2906.45361328125,0.0,2906.45361328125,0.0,0.0 +baseline,scenario_001,VA,0,1,JOINT,False,False,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0 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audit (reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table): the constructed +table's invariants, its agreement with the tables the IRS published, the two +scorers' agreement, and the recorded evidence. + +Invariants of the constructed Tax Table, for every taxable income under $100,000, +filing status column and year: +- it is a whole, non-negative number of dollars, and zero at zero; +- it is non-decreasing in taxable income, and constant inside a band; +- it is the rate schedule's tax at the band's midpoint, rounded to a dollar; +- it is within half a band-width times the band's top marginal rate, plus the + half dollar of rounding, of the schedule's tax on the income itself, and so + within one band-width times that rate; +- the columns are ordered as the schedules are: joint, head of household, single; +- above the ceiling the instructions' method is the rate schedule exactly. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import gzip +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import io +import json +import math +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from functools import cache +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest +from hypothesis import given, settings +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +from policybench.analysis import BINARY_PROGRAMS, weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model +from policybench.spec import metric_type_for_output, output_group_id + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-10-tax-table" +YEARS = (2025, 2026) +IRS_TABLES = { + 2025: AUDIT / "law/irs_tax_table_2025.csv", + 2026: AUDIT / "law/irs_tax_table_2026_draft.csv", +} +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + + +@cache +def _script(name: str): + path = AUDIT / "scripts" / f"{name}.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(f"tax_table_audit_{name}", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules[spec.name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +T = _script("tax_table") + +# Taxable income to the cent, as the references carry it. +incomes = st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=T.CEILING * 100 - 1).map( + lambda cents: cents / 100 +) +statuses = st.sampled_from(T.STATUSES) +years = st.sampled_from(YEARS) +# Amounts in cents up to $2,000,000. Dollars and cents are drawn apart because +# Hypothesis draws an integer range wider than 24 bits mostly from its small +# end: drawn as cents, 13 of 40 seeded runs missed a wrong top rate +# (scripts/top_rate_detection.py, verification/top_rate_detection.json). +wide_cents = st.builds( + lambda dollars, cents: 100 * dollars + cents, + st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=2_000_000), + st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=99), +) + + +def _top_rate_in_band(income: float, status: str, year: int) -> float: + _, upper = T.band(income) + return T.marginal_rate(upper - 0.01, status, year) + + +# --- The construction's invariants ------------------------------------------- + + +@settings(max_examples=2000, deadline=None) +@given(incomes, incomes, statuses, years) +def test_the_table_never_falls_as_taxable_income_rises(a, b, status, year): + low, high = sorted((a, b)) + assert T.table_tax(low, status, year) <= T.table_tax(high, status, year) + + +@settings(max_examples=2000, deadline=None) +@given(incomes, statuses, years) +def test_the_table_is_whole_dollars_and_constant_inside_its_band(income, status, year): + lower, upper = T.band(income) + assert lower <= income < upper + tax = T.table_tax(income, status, year) + assert isinstance(tax, int) and tax >= 0 + assert T.table_tax(lower, status, year) == tax + assert T.table_tax(upper - 0.01, status, year) == tax + + +@settings(max_examples=2000, deadline=None) +@given(incomes, statuses, years) +def test_the_table_is_the_schedule_at_the_midpoint_rounded_half_up( + income, status, year +): + lower, upper = T.band(income) + at_midpoint = T.schedule_tax_cents(50 * (lower + upper), status, year) + # Half a dollar rounds up; everything else rounds to the nearer dollar. + assert T.table_tax(income, status, year) == (at_midpoint + 50) // 100 + + +@settings(max_examples=3000, deadline=None) +@given(incomes, statuses, years) +def test_the_table_stays_within_half_a_band_of_the_schedule(income, status, year): + lower, upper = T.band(income) + width = upper - lower + rate = _top_rate_in_band(income, status, year) + gap = abs(T.table_tax(income, status, year) - T.schedule_tax(income, status, year)) + # The tax on the midpoint is within half a band of the tax on the income, + # the whole-dollar rounding adds at most half a dollar, and the schedule tax + # compared with is itself rounded to the cent. + assert gap <= width / 2 * rate + 0.5 + 0.005 + 1e-9 + # The looser bound the audit was asked to state. + assert gap <= width * rate + 0.005 + 1e-9 + + +@settings(max_examples=1000, deadline=None) +@given(incomes, years) +def test_the_columns_are_ordered_as_the_schedules_are(income, year): + joint, head, single, separate = ( + T.table_tax(income, status, year) + for status in ("joint", "head_of_household", "single", "separate") + ) + assert joint <= head <= single + # Under the ceiling the separate schedule is the single schedule. + assert separate == single + + +@settings(max_examples=500, deadline=None) +@given(wide_cents, statuses, years) +def test_at_or_above_the_ceiling_the_method_is_the_schedule(cents, status, year): + income = T.CEILING + cents / 100 + assert T.line_16_tax(income, status, year) == T.schedule_tax(income, status, year) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("status", T.STATUSES) +def test_the_table_starts_at_zero_and_meets_the_worksheet_at_the_ceiling(year, status): + assert T.table_tax(0, status, year) == 0 + assert T.line_16_tax(0, status, year) == 0 + below = T.line_16_tax(T.CEILING - 0.01, status, year) + at = T.line_16_tax(T.CEILING, status, year) + # The last band's midpoint is $25 under the ceiling. + rate = T.marginal_rate(T.CEILING, status, year) + assert 0 <= at - below <= 25 * rate + 0.5 + 1e-9 + + +def test_the_bands_tile_zero_to_the_ceiling(): + bands = T.bands() + assert len(bands) == 2062 + assert bands[0][0] == 0 and bands[-1][1] == T.CEILING + assert all(a[1] == b[0] for a, b in zip(bands, bands[1:])) + assert {upper - lower for lower, upper in bands} == {5, 10, 25, 50} + assert all(T.band(lower) == (lower, upper) for lower, upper in bands) + for value in (-0.01, T.CEILING, float("nan")): + with pytest.raises(ValueError): + T.band(value) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("status", T.STATUSES) +def test_the_printed_base_amounts_follow_from_the_thresholds_and_rates(year, status): + """Each "$X plus r% of the excess over $T" of the revenue procedure: X is + the schedule's tax on T.""" + thresholds = T.SCHEDULES[year][status] + assert thresholds == tuple(sorted(thresholds)) + assert ( + tuple(T.schedule_tax_cents(100 * t, status, year) for t in thresholds) + == T.BASE_AMOUNTS[year][status] + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("status", T.STATUSES) +def test_the_schedule_is_each_printed_formula_inside_its_bracket(year, status): + """ "$X plus r% of the excess over $T", $1,000 into every bracket: the + first bracket's 10% of the taxable income, and the last bracket's 37%.""" + thresholds = (0, *T.SCHEDULES[year][status]) + bases = (0, *T.BASE_AMOUNTS[year][status]) + assert T.RATES == (10, 12, 22, 24, 32, 35, 37) + for threshold, base, rate in zip(thresholds, bases, T.RATES, strict=True): + cents = 100 * (threshold + 1000) + # r% of $1,000 is r times 1,000 cents. + assert T.schedule_tax_cents(cents, status, year) == base + rate * 1000 + assert T.marginal_rate(threshold + 1000, status, year) == rate / 100 + + +@settings(max_examples=1000, deadline=None) +@given(wide_cents, wide_cents, statuses, years) +def test_the_schedule_is_non_decreasing_and_taxes_no_dollar_above_37_percent( + a, b, status, year +): + low, high = sorted((a, b)) + tax_low = T.schedule_tax_cents(low, status, year) + tax_high = T.schedule_tax_cents(high, status, year) + assert 0 <= tax_low <= tax_high + assert tax_high - tax_low <= math.ceil(0.37 * (high - low)) + 1 + + +# --- Against the tables the IRS published ------------------------------------ + + +def _irs_table(year: int) -> list[dict]: + with IRS_TABLES[year].open() as handle: + return [{k: int(v) for k, v in row.items()} for row in csv.DictReader(handle)] + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS) +def test_the_constructed_table_is_the_irs_table_in_every_cell(year): + """2025: the Tax Table of Publication 1040 (2025). 2026: the IRS's early + release draft of Publication 1040 (2026), posted 2026-09-16, after the + reference freeze. All 2,062 bands and four columns of each.""" + published = _irs_table(year) + built = T.constructed_table(year) + assert [(r["at_least"], r["less_than"]) for r in published] == T.bands() + assert len(published) * len(T.STATUSES) == 8248 + assert built == published + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS) +def test_no_other_simple_rule_reproduces_the_irs_table(year): + """The midpoint and the half-dollar rule are identified by the table, not + assumed: the band's lower or upper bound, or another rounding of the tax + on the midpoint, each miss more than a thousand cells.""" + misses = dict.fromkeys( + ("lower_bound", "upper_bound", "half_down", "half_even", "truncate"), 0 + ) + for row in _irs_table(year): + lower, upper = row["at_least"], row["less_than"] + for status in T.STATUSES: + thresholds = T.SCHEDULES[year][status] + units = T._half_cents(lower + upper, thresholds) + quotient, rest = divmod(units, 200) + half_even = quotient + (rest > 100 or (rest == 100 and quotient % 2 == 1)) + candidates = { + "lower_bound": (T._half_cents(2 * lower, thresholds) + 100) // 200, + "upper_bound": (T._half_cents(2 * upper, thresholds) + 100) // 200, + "half_down": (units + 99) // 200, + "half_even": half_even, + "truncate": quotient, + } + for rule, value in candidates.items(): + misses[rule] += value != row[status] + assert min(misses.values()) > 1000 + + +def test_the_parser_refuses_text_that_is_not_the_whole_table(): + parser = _script("parse_irs_tax_table") + rows = [f"{lower:,} {upper:,} 1 1 1 1" for lower, upper in parser.expected_bands()] + # After the Tax Table come the worksheet and the Earned Income Credit + # table, whose rows can also be six numbers; they are not read. + whole = "\n".join(rows) + f"\n2025 {parser.END}\n1 50 2 2 2 2\n" + parsed = parser.parse(whole) + assert len(parsed) == 2062 + assert [row[:2] for row in parsed] == parser.expected_bands() + assert parser.expected_bands() == T.bands() + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + parser.parse("\n".join(rows)) # no worksheet heading + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + parser.parse("\n".join(rows[:-1]) + f"\n{parser.END}\n") # a band missing + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + parser.parse("\n".join(rows[1:] + rows[:1]) + f"\n{parser.END}\n") # order + + +# --- The two scorers --------------------------------------------------------- + +VARIABLES = ( + FEDERAL, + "federal_refundable_credits", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "payroll_tax", + "snap", + "local_income_tax", + "free_school_meals_eligible", + "head_medicaid_eligible", + "spouse_medicaid_eligible", + "child1_medicaid_eligible", + "child1_early_head_start_eligible", + "child1_head_start_eligible", + "dependent1_wic_eligible", +) + + +def test_the_independent_scorer_groups_and_types_outputs_as_the_repo_does(): + scorer = _script("independent_scorer") + weights = scorer.group_weights() + for variable in VARIABLES + ("head_medicare_eligible", "child12_chip_eligible"): + group = scorer.output_group(variable, weights) + assert group == output_group_id(variable) + binary = ( + metric_type_for_output(variable) == "binary" or group in BINARY_PROGRAMS + ) + assert scorer.is_flag(group) == binary + assert all(scorer.is_flag(group) for group in BINARY_PROGRAMS) + + +@st.composite +def _toy_run(draw): + """A small run: households, references, exclusions, a second accepted + value for some amounts, and two models' answers.""" + households = [f"scenario_{i:03d}" for i in range(draw(st.integers(1, 4)))] + reference, exclusions, also_accept = [], [], {} + for household in households: + chosen = draw( + st.lists(st.sampled_from(VARIABLES), min_size=1, max_size=8, unique=True) + ) + for variable in chosen: + if variable.endswith("_eligible"): + value = float(draw(st.integers(0, 1))) + else: + value = draw(st.integers(0, 4000)) / 4 + if draw(st.booleans()): + shift = draw(st.sampled_from([-8, -5, -4, -1, 1, 4, 5, 8, 16])) / 4 + also_accept[(household, variable)] = value + shift + reference.append((household, variable, value)) + if draw(st.integers(0, 5)) == 0: + exclusions.append((household, variable)) + answers = [] + for model in ("model-a", "model-b"): + for household, variable, value in reference: + if variable.endswith("_eligible"): + answer = draw(st.sampled_from([0.0, 1.0, 0.5, 2.0, None])) + else: + other = also_accept.get((household, variable), value) + base = draw(st.sampled_from([value, other])) + shift = draw(st.sampled_from([0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, -3, -4, -5, 400])) / 4 + answer = draw(st.sampled_from([base + shift, None])) + if draw(st.integers(0, 9)): # one answer in ten is absent + answers.append((model, household, variable, answer)) + return households, reference, exclusions, also_accept, answers + + +def _write_run(directory: Path, reference, exclusions, answers) -> None: + with (directory / "reference_outputs.csv").open("w", newline="") as handle: + writer = csv.writer(handle) + writer.writerow(["scenario_id", "variable", "value", "impact_weight"]) + writer.writerows([s, v, repr(value), ""] for s, v, value in reference) + (directory / "reference_exclusions.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + {"exclusions": [{"scenario_id": s, "variable": v} for s, v in exclusions]} + ) + ) + with gzip.open(directory / "predictions.csv.gz", "wt", newline="") as handle: + writer = csv.writer(handle) + writer.writerow(["model", "scenario_id", "variable", "prediction"]) + writer.writerows( + [m, s, v, "" if answer is None else repr(answer)] + for m, s, v, answer in answers + ) + + +def _repo_exact(directory: Path, exclusions, also_accept=None) -> dict[str, float]: + """The repo's headline exact rate; with a second accepted value, each model + is scored against the accepted value nearer its own answer.""" + truth = pd.read_csv(directory / "reference_outputs.csv") + excluded = set(exclusions) + keep = [(s, v) not in excluded for s, v in zip(truth.scenario_id, truth.variable)] + truth = truth[keep].reset_index(drop=True) + predictions = pd.read_csv(directory / "predictions.csv.gz") + out = {} + for model, rows in predictions.groupby("model"): + own = truth.copy() + if also_accept: + given_answers = { + (s, v): p + for s, v, p in zip(rows.scenario_id, rows.variable, rows.prediction) + } + values = [] + for s, v, value in zip(own.scenario_id, own.variable, own.value): + other = also_accept.get((s, v)) + answer = given_answers.get((s, v)) + if other is not None and answer is not None and not pd.isna(answer): + if abs(answer - other) < abs(answer - value): + value = other + values.append(value) + own["value"] = values + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model(own, rows, {}, country="us") + out[model] = ( + float(scored["weighted_exact"].iloc[0]) * 100 if len(scored) else None + ) + return out + + +@settings(max_examples=150, deadline=None) +@given(_toy_run()) +def test_the_independent_scorer_agrees_with_the_repo_scorer(tmp_path_factory, run): + households, reference, exclusions, also_accept, answers = run + if not answers or len(set(exclusions)) == len(reference): + return + directory = tmp_path_factory.mktemp("toy") + _write_run(directory, reference, exclusions, answers) + scorer = _script("independent_scorer") + for accepted in (None, also_accept): + if accepted is not None and not accepted: + continue + mine = scorer.exact_rates(directory, also_accept=accepted) + theirs = _repo_exact(directory, exclusions, accepted) + assert set(mine) == set(theirs) + for model, rate in theirs.items(): + assert rate is not None + assert mine[model] == pytest.approx(rate, abs=1e-9) + if accepted: + # Accepting a second value never lowers a model's rate. + plain = scorer.exact_rates(directory) + assert all(mine[m] >= plain[m] - 1e-12 for m in mine) + + +# --- The recorded evidence --------------------------------------------------- + +VERIFICATION = AUDIT / "verification" +YEAR = 2026 +CONVENTIONS = ("schedule", "either", "table", "exclude") + + +@cache +def _release_bytes(name: str) -> bytes: + """A file of the frozen run as the release commit holds it (sha256-checked).""" + try: + return _script("release").read(name) + except SystemExit as error: + pytest.fail(str(error)) + + +def _release_csv(name: str) -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(_release_bytes(name))) + + +@cache +def _sweep() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "sweep_tax_table.csv") + + +@cache +def _units() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "tax_units.csv") + + +@cache +def _cells() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "federal_cells.csv") + + +@cache +def _impact() -> dict: + return json.loads((VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact.json").read_text()) + + +@cache +def _models() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv").set_index( + "model" + ) + + +@cache +def _excluded() -> frozenset: + record = json.loads(_release_bytes("reference_exclusions.json")) + return frozenset((e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in record["exclusions"]) + + +def test_a_surviving_spouse_reads_the_joint_column(): + """ "This column must also be used by a qualifying surviving spouse." """ + assert T.COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS == { + "SINGLE": "single", + "JOINT": "joint", + "SEPARATE": "separate", + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": "head_of_household", + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": "joint", + } + + +def test_the_sweep_baseline_is_the_release_reference(): + sweep = _sweep() + reference = _release_csv("reference_outputs.csv") + frozen = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable): row.value for row in reference.itertuples() + } + recorded = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable): row.reference for row in sweep.itertuples() + } + assert len(sweep) == len(recorded) == 1984 + assert recorded == frozen + scored = [key not in _excluded() for key in zip(sweep.scenario_id, sweep.variable)] + assert list(sweep.scored) == scored and sum(scored) == 1926 + gap = (sweep.baseline - sweep.reference).abs() + assert gap[sweep.scored].max() <= 1e-3 + # The copied formulas are the engine's: identical on every output. + assert (sweep.schedule_copy == sweep.baseline).all() + + +def test_the_recorded_returns_follow_the_construction(): + """Each return's two look-ups (the amount taxed at the ordinary rates, and + all taxable income), as the engine computed them under the schedule and + under the table, against scripts/tax_table.py.""" + units = _units() + assert (units.groupby(["system", "scenario_id"]).size() == 1).all() + base = units[units.system == "baseline"].set_index("scenario_id") + table = units[units.system == "table"].set_index("scenario_id") + assert len(base) == len(table) == 100 + assert (base.foreign_earned_income_exclusion == 0).all() + looked_up = 0 + for scenario_id, unit in base.iterrows(): + column = T.COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS[unit.filing_status] + # The engine subtracts in single precision; so does this. + amount = float( + max( + np.float32(0), + np.float32(unit.taxable_income) + - np.float32(unit.capital_gains_excluded_from_taxable_income), + ) + ) + schedule = T.schedule_tax(amount, column, YEAR) + assert unit.income_tax_main_rates == pytest.approx(schedule, abs=0.05) + under_table = table.loc[scenario_id].income_tax_main_rates + if 0 <= amount < T.CEILING: + assert under_table == T.table_tax(amount, column, YEAR) + looked_up += amount > 0 + else: + assert under_table == unit.income_tax_main_rates + # The second look-up: the tax on all taxable income, which caps the + # regular tax of a return with capital gains (worksheet lines 24, 46). + total = float(max(np.float32(0), np.float32(unit.taxable_income))) + on_all = unit.tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates + assert on_all == pytest.approx(T.schedule_tax(total, column, YEAR), abs=0.05) + on_all_table = table.loc[scenario_id].tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates + if 0 <= total < T.CEILING: + assert on_all_table == T.table_tax(total, column, YEAR) + else: + assert on_all_table == on_all + # The regular tax is the first look-up plus the capped tax on the gains. + for system, row in (("schedule", unit), ("table", table.loc[scenario_id])): + capped = min( + row.capital_gains_tax, + max( + 0.0, + row.tax_on_taxable_income_at_main_rates - row.income_tax_main_rates, + ), + ) + assert row.capital_gains_tax == pytest.approx(capped, abs=1e-6), system + assert row.regular_tax_before_credits == pytest.approx( + row.income_tax_main_rates + row.capital_gains_tax, abs=0.01 + ) + assert looked_up == 38 + + +def test_the_cells_table_follows_from_the_sweep_and_the_irs_draft(): + cells, sweep, units = _cells(), _sweep(), _units() + federal = sweep[sweep.variable == FEDERAL].reset_index(drop=True) + assert list(cells.scenario_id) == list(federal.scenario_id) + assert (cells.schedule_value == federal.baseline).all() + assert (cells.constructed_table_value == federal.table).all() + assert (cells.scored == federal.scored).all() + draft = {row["at_least"]: row for row in _irs_table(YEAR)} + base = units[units.system == "baseline"].set_index("scenario_id") + applies = cells[cells.tax_table_applies] + assert len(applies) == 38 + for cell in applies.itertuples(): + column = T.COLUMN_FOR_FILING_STATUS[cell.filing_status] + lower, upper = T.band(cell.amount_at_ordinary_rates) + assert cell.band == f"{lower}-{upper}" + built = T.table_tax(cell.amount_at_ordinary_rates, column, YEAR) + assert cell.constructed_table_tax_on_amount == built + assert cell.irs_draft_2026_table_tax_on_amount == draft[lower][column] == built + assert cell.filing_status == base.loc[cell.scenario_id].filing_status + gap = abs(built - cell.schedule_tax_on_amount) + assert gap <= (upper - lower) / 2 * cell.marginal_rate + 0.5 + 0.05 + + +def test_the_recorded_counts_follow_from_the_recorded_cells(): + cells, sweep = _cells(), _sweep() + summary = _impact()["federal_references"] + scored = cells[cells.scored] + changed = scored[scored.difference.abs() > 1e-6] + assert summary["all"] == len(cells) == 100 + assert summary["scored"] == len(scored) == 84 + assert summary["scored_where_table_applies"] == scored.tax_table_applies.sum() == 33 + assert summary["scored_changed_by_any_amount"] == len(changed) == 30 + assert ( + summary["scored_differing_by_more_than_1"] + == int(scored.differs_beyond_1.sum()) + == 21 + ) + assert (scored.differs_beyond_1 == (scored.difference.abs() > 1)).all() + # The classes follow from each return's taxable income, and the counts + # from the classes. + classes = cells.taxable_income.map( + lambda income: ( + "zero" + if income <= 0 + else "under_100000" + if income < T.CEILING + else "100000_or_more" + ) + ) + assert (cells.taxable_income_class == classes).all() + assert ( + summary["scored_by_taxable_income"] + == classes[cells.scored].value_counts().to_dict() + ) + assert summary["all_by_taxable_income"] == classes.value_counts().to_dict() + assert summary["scored_by_taxable_income"] == { + "zero": 45, + "under_100000": 33, + "100000_or_more": 6, + } + rounding = summary["look_up_rounding_sensitivity"] + differs = (scored.constructed_table_value - scored.table_whole_dollar_value).abs() + assert rounding["scored_changed_by_any_amount"] == int((differs > 1e-6).sum()) + assert [row["scenario_id"] for row in rounding["scored_moved_by_more_than_1"]] == ( + list(scored.scenario_id[differs > 1]) + ) + assert rounding["scored_moved_by_more_than_1"] == [ + {"scenario_id": "scenario_042", "table": 2359.0, "table_whole_dollar": 2365.0} + ] + small = _impact()["answers_on_scored_outputs_changed_by_1_or_less"] + assert small == { + "outputs": 9, + "rows": 423, + "exact_differs_between_the_two_values": 0, + } + assert summary["scored_itemizers_where_table_applies"] == 0 + assert changed.difference.min() == pytest.approx(-2.9648, abs=1e-3) + assert changed.difference.max() == pytest.approx(3.9717, abs=1e-3) + # Under the ceiling no difference can pass half a $50 band at 22% plus the + # half dollar of rounding. + assert cells.difference.abs().max() <= 6.0 + moved = sweep[sweep.scored & sweep.table_moves] + assert moved.variable.value_counts().to_dict() == { + FEDERAL: 21, + "federal_refundable_credits": 2, + } + scored_changes = sweep[sweep.scored & ((sweep.table - sweep.baseline).abs() > 1e-6)] + assert set(scored_changes.variable) == {FEDERAL, "federal_refundable_credits"} + assert len(scored_changes) == 32 + assert _impact()["scored_outputs_per_model"] == { + "schedule": 1926, + "table": 1926, + "exclude": 1903, + } + + +def _published_exact() -> dict[str, float]: + payload = json.loads(gzip.decompress(_release_bytes("data.json.gz"))) + payload = payload["countries"]["us"] if "countries" in payload else payload + return {row["model"]: row["exact"] for row in payload["modelStats"]} + + +def test_the_recorded_rates_agree_between_scorers_and_with_the_published_board(): + models, published = _models(), _published_exact() + assert len(models) == len(published) == 47 + for model, rate in published.items(): + assert models.loc[model, "exact_schedule"] == pytest.approx(rate, abs=1e-9) + for convention in CONVENTIONS: + gap = ( + models[f"exact_{convention}"] - models[f"exact_{convention}_independent"] + ).abs() + assert gap.max() <= 1e-9 + agreement = _impact()["scorer_agreement"][convention] + assert agreement["max_abs_gap_repo_vs_independent"] <= 1e-9 + assert agreement.get("max_abs_gap_function_vs_cli", 0.0) <= 1e-9 + # A second accepted value never lowers a rate. + assert (models.exact_either >= models.exact_schedule - 1e-12).all() + counts = models[ + ["matches_schedule", "matches_table", "matches_both", "matches_neither"] + ] + assert (counts.sum(axis=1) == models.cells).all() and (models.cells == 21).all() + assert counts.sum().to_dict() == { + "matches_schedule": 157, + "matches_table": 2, + "matches_both": 16, + "matches_neither": 812, + } + + +def test_the_independent_scorer_reproduces_the_release_under_each_convention(): + """On the release's own files: the independent scorer gives the published + headline, and its rates under the other conventions are the recorded ones.""" + scorer = _script("independent_scorer") + directory = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="pb-tax-table-")) + try: + for name in ( + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "predictions.csv.gz", + ): + (directory / name).write_bytes(_release_bytes(name)) + reference = scorer.read_reference(directory) + answers = scorer.read_answers(directory) + finally: + shutil.rmtree(directory) + assert len(reference) == 1926 and len(answers) == 47 + sweep, models = _sweep(), _models() + scored = sweep[sweep.scored] + changed = scored[(scored.table - scored.baseline).abs() > 1e-6] + table_values = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable): float(row.table) + for row in changed.itertuples() + } + moved = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable) + for row in scored[scored.table_moves].itertuples() + } + computed = { + "schedule": scorer.rates(reference, answers), + "either": scorer.rates(reference, answers, also_accept=table_values), + "table": scorer.rates(reference | table_values, answers), + "exclude": scorer.rates( + {key: value for key, value in reference.items() if key not in moved}, + answers, + ), + } + published = _published_exact() + for model, rate in published.items(): + assert computed["schedule"][model] == pytest.approx(rate, abs=1e-9) + for convention in CONVENTIONS: + assert computed[convention][model] == pytest.approx( + models.loc[model, f"exact_{convention}"], abs=1e-9 + ) + + +def test_the_law_record_was_checked_against_the_documents(): + law = _script("law_sources") + check = json.loads((AUDIT / "law/excerpts_check.json").read_text()) + quotes = law.excerpts() + assert check["all_checks_pass"] is True + assert check["excerpts"] == check["excerpts_found"] == len(quotes) == 44 + assert check["excerpts_not_found"] == [] + assert all(check["rate_tables_equal_to_tax_table_py"].values()) + assert len(check["rate_tables_equal_to_tax_table_py"]) == 8 + sources = json.loads((AUDIT / "law/sources.json").read_text())["sources"] + extractions = {source["extraction"]["name"] for source in sources} + assert {source for source, _ in quotes} <= extractions + for year, table in check["tax_tables"].items(): + committed = IRS_TABLES[int(year)].read_bytes() + assert table["csv_sha256"] == hashlib.sha256(committed).hexdigest() + assert table["parse_equals_committed_csv"] is True + assert table["amounts"] == table["amounts_equal_to_constructed_table"] == 8248 + assert not any(check["occurrences_of_midpoint_or_middle"].values()) + + +class _Statuses: + """A filing status array, as the engine hands one to a formula.""" + + def __init__(self, names): + self.names = names + + def decode_to_str(self): + return np.array(self.names) + + +class _Period: + def __init__(self, year): + self.start = type("Start", (), {"year": year})() + + +def test_the_look_up_rounding_variant_crosses_the_ceiling_onto_the_worksheet(): + """The sweep's look-up: the table under the ceiling; with the amount + rounded to a whole dollar, an amount that rounds up to $100,000 takes the + worksheet on $100,000, not the schedule tax on the unrounded amount.""" + sweep = _script("sweep_tax_table") + amounts = np.array([99_999.40, 99_999.60, 21_749.71, 0.0, 150_000.25]) + statuses = _Statuses(["SINGLE", "SINGLE", "SINGLE", "JOINT", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE"]) + columns = ["single", "single", "single", "joint", "joint"] + schedule = np.array( + [T.schedule_tax(a, c, YEAR) for a, c in zip(amounts, columns, strict=True)] + ) + args = (amounts, statuses, schedule, _Period(YEAR)) + plain = sweep.look_up("table")(*args) + assert list(plain) == [ + T.table_tax(99_999.40, "single", YEAR), + T.table_tax(99_999.60, "single", YEAR), + 2359, + 0, + schedule[4], + ] + rounded = sweep.look_up("table_whole_dollar")(*args) + assert rounded[0] == T.table_tax(99_999, "single", YEAR) + assert rounded[1] == T.schedule_tax(100_000, "single", YEAR) + assert rounded[1] != schedule[1] and rounded[1] != plain[1] + assert rounded[2] == 2365 + assert rounded[3] == 0 + assert rounded[4] == T.schedule_tax(150_000, "joint", YEAR) + # The copied formulas, and every other year, keep the schedule. + assert list(sweep.look_up("schedule_copy")(*args)) == list(schedule) + for variant in ("table", "table_whole_dollar"): + other_year = sweep.look_up(variant)(amounts, statuses, schedule, _Period(2025)) + assert list(other_year) == list(schedule) + + +def test_no_tax_table_draft_is_in_the_archived_listings_before_the_freeze(): + """What the search behind "none found" covers, and that it found none.""" + law = _script("law_sources") + history = json.loads((AUDIT / "law/draft_listing_history.json").read_text()) + captures = history["captures"] + before = [c for c in captures if c["before_freeze"]] + assert history["freeze"] == "2026-07-03" + assert len(captures) == len(law.ARCHIVED_LISTINGS) == 18 + assert history["captures_on_or_before_freeze"] == len(before) == 14 + assert all(c["captured_utc"][:10] <= "2026-07-03" for c in before) + assert max(c["captured_utc"] for c in before) == "2026-07-03T08:09Z" + assert all(c["rows"] == 25 and not c["tax_table_products"] for c in captures) + assert history["tax_table_products_listed_on_or_before_freeze"] == [] + assert history["tax_table_products_listed_in_later_captures"] == [] + assert history["posting_dates_covered_on_or_before_freeze"] == law.merge( + [(c["first_posted"], c["last_posted"]) for c in before] + ) + # One day in the period is on no archived page. + assert history["posting_dates_covered_on_or_before_freeze"] == [ + ["2026-03-23", "2026-06-08"], + ["2026-06-10", "2026-07-01"], + ] + assert history["distinct_rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze"] == 251 + # Each capture is 25 rows of a much longer listing: a sample of it. + sizes = [c["drafts_in_the_whole_listing"] for c in before] + assert history["drafts_in_the_whole_listing_on_or_before_freeze"] == [ + min(sizes), + max(sizes), + ] + assert [min(sizes), max(sizes)] == [1215, 1219] + seen = history["rows_seen_on_or_before_freeze"] + assert len(seen) == len({tuple(row.values()) for row in seen}) == 251 + assert not any(law.is_tax_table_product(row) for row in seen) + assert {row["posted"] for row in seen} <= { + day + for first, last in history["posting_dates_covered_on_or_before_freeze"] + for day in pd.date_range(first, last).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + } + assert min(row["posted"] for row in seen) == "2026-03-23" + assert max(row["posted"] for row in seen) == "2026-07-01" + today = { + row["product"]: row for row in history["tax_table_products_listed_on_read_date"] + } + assert today["Publication 1040"]["revision"] == "2026" + assert today["Publication 1040"]["posted"] == "2026-09-16" + assert today["Instruction 1040"]["revision"] == "2025" + # Ranges join when one starts the day after another ends, and not otherwise. + assert law.merge([("2026-05-14", "2026-05-19"), ("2026-05-05", "2026-05-13")]) == [ + ["2026-05-05", "2026-05-19"] + ] + assert law.merge([("2026-06-10", "2026-06-17"), ("2026-06-03", "2026-06-08")]) == [ + ["2026-06-03", "2026-06-08"], + ["2026-06-10", "2026-06-17"], + ] + assert law.is_tax_table_product( + {"product": "Publication 1040", "title": "", "revision": "", "posted": ""} + ) + assert not law.is_tax_table_product( + { + "product": "Form 8615", + "title": "Tax for Certain Children", + "revision": "", + "posted": "", + } + ) + + +def test_the_filers_ages_and_farm_income_are_the_release_households(): + """Form 8615 needs a filer under 24 and Schedule J income from farming or + fishing: the recorded facts that bound where either could apply.""" + scenarios = _release_csv("scenarios.csv") + cells = _cells().set_index("scenario_id") + farm_inputs = ("farm_income", "farm_operations_income", "farm_rent_income") + for scenario_id, text in zip(scenarios.scenario_id, scenarios.scenario_json): + adults = json.loads(text)["adults"] + heads = [a for a in adults if a.get("inputs", {}).get("is_tax_unit_head")] + assert len(heads) == 1 + assert cells.loc[scenario_id, "head_age"] == heads[0]["age"] + farm = any( + float(a.get("inputs", {}).get(name) or 0) != 0 + for a in adults + for name in farm_inputs + ) + assert bool(cells.loc[scenario_id, "has_farm_income"]) == farm + applies = cells[cells.tax_table_applies] + recorded = _impact()["federal_references"]["returns_where_table_applies"] + assert recorded["all"] == len(applies) == 38 + assert recorded["head_24_or_older"] == int((applies.head_age >= 24).sum()) == 36 + assert recorded["head_under_24"] == [ + {"scenario_id": "scenario_082", "head_age": 23}, + {"scenario_id": "scenario_091", "head_age": 22}, + ] + assert recorded["with_farm_income"] == ["scenario_042", "scenario_064"] + assert recorded["with_farm_income"] == list(applies.index[applies.has_farm_income]) + + +def test_the_look_up_rounding_sensitivity_is_summarized_over_the_right_returns(): + sweep, units = _sweep(), _units() + summary = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "sweep_summary.json").read_text()) + rounding = summary["look_up_rounding_sensitivity"] + base = units[units.system == "baseline"] + over = set(base.scenario_id[base.taxable_income >= T.CEILING]) + federal_over = sweep[(sweep.variable == FEDERAL) & sweep.scenario_id.isin(over)] + gap = (federal_over.table - federal_over.table_whole_dollar).abs() + assert rounding["federal_outputs_of_returns_at_100000_or_more"] == len(gap) == 13 + assert rounding["max_abs_difference_among_them"] == pytest.approx(gap.max()) + # At or over the ceiling the table variant is the schedule, so only the + # rounding of the looked-up amount can move the output: under a dollar's tax. + assert (federal_over.table == federal_over.baseline).all() + assert gap.max() < 0.37 + every = (sweep.table - sweep.table_whole_dollar).abs() + assert rounding["outputs_differing_from_table"] == int((every > 1e-6).sum()) + assert [row["scenario_id"] for row in rounding["differing_by_more_than_1"]] == list( + sweep.scenario_id[every > 1] + ) + scored_max = _impact()["federal_references"]["look_up_rounding_sensitivity"][ + "scored_max_abs_change_at_100000_or_more" + ] + scored_gap = gap[federal_over.scored] + assert scored_max == pytest.approx(scored_gap.max()) and scored_max < 0.10 + + +def test_the_income_generator_reaches_the_top_bracket(): + """The recorded experiment behind the wide generator above.""" + record = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "top_rate_detection.json").read_text()) + missed = record["runs_that_missed_the_fault"] + assert record["runs_per_generator"] == 40 + assert missed["cents"] > 0 + assert missed["dollars_and_cents"] == 0 + + +def test_the_state_record_counts_the_release_references(): + record = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "state_tax_tables.json").read_text()) + assert record["every_quotation_found"] is True + assert all(state["quotations"] for state in record["states"]) + reference = _release_csv("reference_outputs.csv") + scenarios = _release_csv("scenarios.csv").set_index("scenario_id")["state"] + state_tax = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + scored = np.array( + [ + (s, v) not in _excluded() + for s, v in zip(reference.scenario_id, reference.variable) + ] + ) + rows = reference[(reference.variable == state_tax) & scored] + nonzero = rows[rows.value.abs() > 1e-6].scenario_id.map(scenarios).value_counts() + recorded = { + state["state"]: state["scored_nonzero_state_references"] + for state in record["states"] + } + assert recorded == nonzero.to_dict() + totals = record["scored_nonzero_state_references"] + assert totals["all_states"] == totals["in_states_checked"] == 31 + assert totals["in_states_not_checked"] == {} + with_table = {s["state"] for s in record["states"] if s["table_prescribed"]} + assert sorted(with_table) == sorted(record["states_with_a_table"]) + assert totals["in_states_with_a_table"] == sum( + count for state, count in recorded.items() if state in with_table + ) + + +def test_the_manifest_pins_every_evidence_file(): + """Rebuilding the manifest reproduces the committed one, so an evidence + file cannot change without the manifest changing with it.""" + committed = json.loads((AUDIT / "manifest.json").read_text()) + assert _script("build_manifest").manifest() == committed