diff --git a/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-03.changed.md b/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-03.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..4ad6ac9453 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-03.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Sign dense build 1's gate-only failures for the local line (microcosm#1301, attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a): 4 national target-fit rows, 11 local target-fit cells and 0 areas below the support floor, approved 2026-11-03; 13 entries that build 2 would fail are retired. Every signed row stays bound in the solve, each entry suppresses only the local line's release fence, and a build in which a signed row passes fails its entry as stale. diff --git a/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-04.changed.md b/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-04.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..3df10ed47d --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-04.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Sign dense build 1's gate-only failures for the local line (microcosm#1301, attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051): 3 national target-fit rows, 9 local target-fit cells and 0 areas below the support floor, approved 2026-11-04; 13 entries that build 2 would fail are retired. Every signed row stays bound in the solve, each entry suppresses only the local line's release fence, and a build in which a signed row passes fails its entry as stale. diff --git a/changelog.d/1418-company-car-targets.added.md b/changelog.d/1418-company-car-targets.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c33f0fddaa --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1418-company-car-targets.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +The national calibration binds HMRC's 2024-25 company cars (Benefits in kind statistics, July 2026), five rows in a new family, `hmrc_benefits_in_kind` (María's ruling of 3 November 2026): Table 1's car recipients (920,000) and car taxable value (£3,070m), and Table 2C's recipients by fuel, fully electric (465,000), petrol including hybrids (390,000, the engine's `PETROL` and `ALTERNATIVE_FUEL`) and diesel including hybrids (60,000). The counts count people with a company car list price, held at 2024-25 since no index projects them. The taxable value is the engine's company car benefit in 2024-25, through a new dated measure, `company_car_benefit_2024` (`measurement_period` 2024), since the calibration year's appropriate percentages are a point higher; the measure resolver refuses a binding that measures a dated car benefit at any other period, as it does a dated CGT measure. Two signed holds cover the rows in `uprating_holds.json`. The company car fact fence keeps the vendored facts out of the solve, as imputation seeds, and names the bound rows in a new `calibrated_facts` field. diff --git a/changelog.d/1418-company-cars-without-epb.changed.md b/changelog.d/1418-company-cars-without-epb.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e8dcb49d32 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1418-company-cars-without-epb.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +`company_cars` keeps the car on every tape row, whatever EPB it drew (María's rulings of 3 November 2026). EPB is drawn on uniforms the car never conditions. The national `f6e33b93` lost about 272,000 weighted holders and £10.6bn of list price, at the stage's weights, to a rule that dropped the car where EPB was zero. A cap of EPB alone also dropped or shrank the cars of the rows that drew a little EPB (Vahid's review of microcosm#1491). A tape row's car and fuel benefits are now capped at its EPB + PAY within the pay its employee pension contribution leaves; the carve declares `cap: epb_then_pay` and `pay_column`. They come out of `employment_income` as before and sit in EPB first, and the part above EPB moves from `hmrc_spi_pay` into `hmrc_spi_employment_benefits`, so PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape's. A row whose EPB and PAY can't hold the car still loses it. The stage now rewrites `hmrc_spi_pay` and `hmrc_spi_employment_benefits`. In the receipt, `holders.spi_dropped_without_epb` becomes `holders.spi_channel_tape_without_epb`, and `cap_below_epb_for_the_employee_contribution` becomes `cap_below_epb_and_pay_for_the_employee_contribution`. `spi_carve_out` adds `holders_without_epb`, `kept_without_epb`, `kept_with_epb_topped_up_from_pay`, `kept_leaving_no_pay` and `weighted_pay_moved_into_epb_gbp`. Two invariants join the stage-health gate: a tape row's PAY below zero, and a tape row's PAY + EPB moved. diff --git a/docs/uk-company-cars-316.md b/docs/uk-company-cars-316.md index 3831dadaad..734f85d80c 100644 --- a/docs/uk-company-cars-316.md +++ b/docs/uk-company-cars-316.md @@ -35,12 +35,15 @@ car from their car job with the lowest JOBTYPE, the main job first, so a person most one, as in the engine. The survey asks CARVAL and CARCON of a company van too; they are taken as the car's. -SPI-channel rows carry their FRS twin's carriers, as they carry every root column. -A row drawn from the SPI tape (`person_is_spi_income_recipient`) has the tape's PAY + -EPB + TAXTERM as pay, where EPB is every taxable expense payment and benefit in kind, -so it keeps its twin's car only where its drawn EPB is positive. The channel's other -rows, the undrawn copies and the dependants aged 16 to 19, keep their twin's pay, and -keep its car as an FRS row does. +SPI-channel rows carry their FRS twin's carriers, as they carry every root column, +and keep their twin's car. A row drawn from the SPI tape (`person_is_spi_income_recipient`) +has the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM as pay, where EPB is every taxable expense payment +and benefit in kind. EPB is drawn on uniforms the car never conditions, so every tape +row keeps its twin's car, whatever EPB it drew, and the part of the car's benefits above +its EPB moves from its PAY into its EPB (below; María's rulings of 3 November 2026). The +channel's other rows, +the undrawn copies and the dependants aged 16 to 19, keep their twin's pay, and keep +its car as an FRS row does. ## The draws @@ -54,8 +57,7 @@ Every draw is keyed on the person's identity, so reordering rows moves none. fuels draw at HMRC Table 2C's shares together. A holder who reports private fuel, which an electric car cannot carry, draws among petrol and diesel alone, and the others draw electricity at the share that keeps Table 2C's among all of them at the - stage's weights (all of them, where the private fuel holders leave too few). The tape - rows that lose their car for want of EPB draw at the holders' electric share. Matching + stage's weights (all of them, where the private fuel holders leave too few). Matching Table 2C at the stage's weights makes each drawn fuel depend on the other drawn cars' private fuel and weights, as the CO2 split does: reordering rows moves none, but a car's fuel can move when other rows or weights do. It never draws a hybrid: @@ -83,14 +85,20 @@ Every draw is keyed on the person's identity, so reordering rows moves none. ## The tape rows' pay On a tape row the engine's car and fuel benefits come out of `employment_income`, -capped at EPB (María's ruling of 30 October 2026) within the pay the row's employee -pension contribution leaves. The SPI income stage capped that contribution at the pay +capped at EPB + PAY within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves +(`cap: epb_then_pay`). EPB holds the benefits first, and the part above EPB moves from +the row's PAY (`hmrc_spi_pay`) into its EPB (`hmrc_spi_employment_benefits`): its PAY + +EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape's, and its split agrees with what the engine taxes (María's +rulings of 3 November 2026). Until then the cap was EPB alone (María's ruling of 30 +October 2026), with PAY only where EPB was zero. That dropped or shrank the cars of the +rows that drew a little EPB, which says no more about the car than a zero does (Vahid's +review of microcosm#1491). A row whose EPB and PAY can't hold the car loses it as below. +The SPI income stage capped that contribution at the pay it drew, and `salary_sacrifice`, which runs later on the carved pay, refuses a contribution above the pay that remains; it keeps the salary and bonus sacrifice within that pay itself. A row whose contribution takes all of its pay has no room, so it loses -its car and keeps its pay. The room bites only where the SPI stage's drawn contribution -exceeds the row's cash pay, PAY + TAXTERM, since that stage capped it at a pay that -includes EPB. The receipt measures what it costs beside a cap of EPB within pay alone: +its car and keeps its pay. The receipt measures what the room costs beside a cap of +EPB + PAY within pay alone: the cars it scales further or drops, and the list price they give up (`spi_carve_out.cars_the_employee_contribution_scales_or_drops` and `weighted_list_price_given_up_for_the_employee_contribution_gbp`). Re-capping the @@ -106,7 +114,7 @@ them alone. fits, with its contributions dropped. The benefit is the price above the capped contributions times the appropriate percentage, so the scaling is exact. 3. A car that would need a list price below £5,000 to fit is dropped, and its EPB - stays in pay. + and PAY stay in pay. A scaled car's price is the room over its appropriate percentage, so what sets the percentage sets the price, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on: the CO2 @@ -146,34 +154,64 @@ list prices and contributions grow by CPI, and the weights are not projected. Expect the static 2030-31 cost to come in well under Table 6.1's £310m, from the size of that base. The OBR's NICs line (£92.4m, at Class 1A's 15%) implies about £616m of extra taxable value, a list price base of about £60bn. HMRC's 2024-25 -taxable value implies roughly half of that, so even a file that matches Table 1's -920,000 holders and £3,070m should fall about 30 to 45% short. Matching Table 1's -taxable value does not pin the base, since a different electric mix and different -prices reach the same total. So the stage's receipt records the weighted total list -price of electric cars and of the others, for the results to read the gap as base -size. - -Two parts of a shortfall are measured here rather than corrected (María's ruling of 31 -October 2026: measure first). - -- **The tape rows' EPB draw.** A tape row keeps its twin's car only where its drawn - EPB is positive, and EPB is drawn on uniforms the car never conditions. The SPI - channel holds half the working-age prior mass, so before calibration holders and - the base come to about half the FRS level plus half of it times the share of tape - rows that draw EPB. The receipt records the weighted holders and list price lost - this way (`holders.spi_dropped_without_epb`). -- **The carve-out.** Cars that do not fit their EPB are scaled or dropped, above. +taxable value implies roughly half of that, so a file that matches Table 1's +920,000 holders and £3,070m, as the national now binds (below), should still fall +about 30 to 45% short. With Table 2C's fuel counts bound as well the electric mix is +pinned, but the prices are not: a different price mix reaches the same total. So the +stage's receipt records the weighted total list price of electric cars and of the +others, for the results to read the gap as base size. + +Two parts of a shortfall were measured first (María's ruling of 31 October 2026: +measure first), and the first is corrected now. + +- **The tape rows' EPB draw.** Until 3 November 2026 a tape row kept its twin's car + only where its drawn EPB was positive, and the national `f6e33b93` lost about + 272,000 weighted holders and £10.6bn of list price that way, at the stage's + weights. They are + kept now, their benefits moved from PAY into EPB. The receipt records the weighted + holders kept without EPB and the pay moved (`holders.spi_channel_tape_without_epb` + and `spi_carve_out.weighted_pay_moved_into_epb_gbp`), and how many of those rows the + car leaves with no PAY, their cash pay being their termination pay alone + (`spi_carve_out.kept_leaving_no_pay`). It also counts the rows with EPB whose car + takes more than it (`spi_carve_out.kept_with_epb_topped_up_from_pay`). +- **The carve-out.** Cars that do not fit their EPB and PAY are + scaled or dropped, above. These figures, like the list price totals, are at the stage's weights, before calibration moves the holders. The results measure the base on the calibrated file. -## Measured, not bound - -No HMRC company car fact is a calibration target: the stage draws fuel and CO2 to -Tables 2A and 2C, so binding them would be circular. No build step reads the other -tables after calibration yet: comparing the calibrated file with HMRC's Table 1 -(recipients, taxable value, income tax and NICs), Table 3A (by income range) and Table -4 (by region) is a manual step. `uk_stage_company_cars_invariants` blocks a release on +## Bound and measured + +The national calibration binds five of HMRC's 2024-25 facts from the Chronicle feed +(María's ruling of 3 November 2026), in their own family, `hmrc_benefits_in_kind`: + +| Target | HMRC | Frame | +|---|---|---| +| `hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients` | Table 1, car recipients, 920,000 | People with a list price | +| `hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value` | Table 1, car taxable value, £3,070m | The engine's company car benefit in 2024-25 | +| `hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric` | Table 2C, 465,000 | `ELECTRIC` | +| `hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids` | Table 2C, 390,000 | `PETROL` and `ALTERNATIVE_FUEL` | +| `hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids` | Table 2C, 60,000 | `DIESEL_RDE2` and `DIESEL_NON_RDE2` | + +- **The taxable value** is measured in 2024-25 (`company_car_benefit_2024`, + `measurement_period` 2024), as the CGT rows are: the calibration year's appropriate + percentages are a point higher, so measuring 2025 would set 2024-25's total against + 2025-26's rates and pull the base down. +- **The counts** count stored inputs, so the year they are measured in moves nothing + but the fact. They are held at 2024-25 (`uprating_holds.json`): no index projects + company car holders, and HMRC's 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027. +- **The fuel counts** bring the fuel mix to HMRC's rather than the FRS respondents': + about a third of the FRS's company cars are electric, and half of HMRC's. Table 2C + counts hybrids with their fuel, and the stage maps every FRS hybrid to + `ALTERNATIVE_FUEL`, which counts with petrol here, since diesel hybrids are few. If + the reweighting distorts other targets, redrawing the fuel types in the stage is + the next step. +- The three fuel rows sum to 915,000 against Table 1's 920,000, from HMRC's rounding. + +The stage still draws fuel and CO2 from its vendored copy of Tables 2A and 2C, which +the weight solve never reads. Comparing the calibrated file with Table 2A (by CO2), +Table 3A (by income range) and Table 4 (by region) is a manual step. +`uk_stage_company_cars_invariants` blocks a release on any record that breaks an invariant, a tape row whose employee pension contribution exceeds its carved pay included, and on a tape row whose pay plus benefits misses the tape's total by more than 5p. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json index 91bba03896..0a22f4e200 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json @@ -14264,7 +14264,9 @@ "kind", "outputs", "epb_column", + "pay_column", "benefits", + "cap", "minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp" ], "properties": { @@ -14281,6 +14283,14 @@ "epb_column": { "type": "string" }, + "pay_column": { + "type": "string" + }, + "cap": { + "enum": [ + "epb_then_pay" + ] + }, "benefits": { "type": "array", "minItems": 1, @@ -14303,7 +14313,8 @@ "classification_rationale", "fact_fence_id", "fenced_fact_composition", - "fenced_fact_count" + "fenced_fact_count", + "calibrated_facts" ], "properties": { "kind": { @@ -14326,6 +14337,9 @@ }, "fenced_fact_count": { "type": "number" + }, + "calibrated_facts": { + "type": "string" } } } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/ledger_compile_parity_incumbent_2025_signed_differences.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/ledger_compile_parity_incumbent_2025_signed_differences.json index b647f06583..6ec9af93a5 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/ledger_compile_parity_incumbent_2025_signed_differences.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/ledger_compile_parity_incumbent_2025_signed_differences.json @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ { - "compiled_count": 1420, + "compiled_count": 1425, "counts_by_kind": { "calibration_drift": 566, "fixture_only": 42, - "ledger_only": 825 + "ledger_only": 830 }, - "difference_count": 1433, + "difference_count": 1438, "differences": [ { "fixture_value": 1608000.0, @@ -1295,6 +1295,41 @@ "period": 2025, "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." }, + { + "kind": "ledger_only", + "ledger_value": 60000.0, + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "period": 2025, + "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." + }, + { + "kind": "ledger_only", + "ledger_value": 465000.0, + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "period": 2025, + "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." + }, + { + "kind": "ledger_only", + "ledger_value": 390000.0, + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "period": 2025, + "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." + }, + { + "kind": "ledger_only", + "ledger_value": 920000.0, + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "period": 2025, + "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." + }, + { + "kind": "ledger_only", + "ledger_value": 3070000000.0, + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "period": 2025, + "reason": "Ledger-compiled row has no fixture counterpart at this comparison period." + }, { "kind": "ledger_only", "ledger_value": 32000000.0, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json index c587c464ee..0323b2e0a6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -12,26 +12,6 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001080/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001080/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261018T161007Z-35fb4c89 (full gate report sha256 46d42e6abf5fa8eaf08e3301a982703f113838c41cb7869340a3a41bafc6407f) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", - "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "Gate-only sign-off of the local release's measured build, drafted from its run (microcosm#1301, microcosm#1310).", - "approved_on": "2026-10-19", - "expires_on": "2026-11-16", - "release_lines": [ - "local" - ] - }, - "age_structure/E14001096/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001096/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261018T161007Z-35fb4c89 (full gate report sha256 46d42e6abf5fa8eaf08e3301a982703f113838c41cb7869340a3a41bafc6407f) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", - "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "Gate-only sign-off of the local release's measured build, drafted from its run (microcosm#1301, microcosm#1310).", - "approved_on": "2026-10-19", - "expires_on": "2026-11-16", - "release_lines": [ - "local" - ] - }, "age_structure/E14001131/age/20_30": { "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001131/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261018T161007Z-35fb4c89 (full gate report sha256 46d42e6abf5fa8eaf08e3301a982703f113838c41cb7869340a3a41bafc6407f) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", @@ -142,16 +122,6 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001301/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001301/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261026T091056Z-824870f6 (full gate report sha256 abf245413ca0809f9f261e650c352ef310d11e19960b8e4c5ade3bc57dddf411) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", - "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "Gate-only sign-off of the local release's measured build, drafted from its run (microcosm#1301, microcosm#1396).", - "approved_on": "2026-10-26", - "expires_on": "2026-11-23", - "release_lines": [ - "local" - ] - }, "council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_b": { "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_b on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261026T091056Z-824870f6 (full gate report sha256 abf245413ca0809f9f261e650c352ef310d11e19960b8e4c5ade3bc57dddf411) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", @@ -162,18 +132,18 @@ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_b": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_b on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261026T091056Z-824870f6 (full gate report sha256 abf245413ca0809f9f261e650c352ef310d11e19960b8e4c5ade3bc57dddf411) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E07000178/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E07000178/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "Gate-only sign-off of the local release's measured build, drafted from its run (microcosm#1301, microcosm#1396).", - "approved_on": "2026-10-26", - "expires_on": "2026-11-23", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", + "approved_on": "2026-10-27", + "expires_on": "2026-11-24", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E06000018/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E06000018/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001231/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001231/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -182,8 +152,8 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E07000178/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E07000178/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001327/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001327/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -192,8 +162,8 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001081/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001081/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001352/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001352/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -202,8 +172,8 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001231/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001231/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001410/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001410/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -212,8 +182,8 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001327/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001327/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_g": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_g on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -222,8 +192,8 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001352/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001352/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_f": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_f on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", "approved_on": "2026-10-27", @@ -232,142 +202,152 @@ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001410/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001410/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E08000003/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E08000003/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/E14001420/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001420/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/E08000028/council_tax/band_f": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E08000028/council_tax/band_f on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/S12000013/age/20_30": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/S12000013/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_c": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_c on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/S12000013/age/60_70": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/S12000013/age/60_70 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "domestic_energy/S12000023/energy/electricity_kwh": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell domestic_energy/S12000023/energy/electricity_kwh on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "age_structure/S14000027/age/60_70": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/S14000027/age/60_70 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E09000020/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell hmrc_income_by_area/E09000020/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_g": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_g on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001310/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell hmrc_income_by_area/E14001310/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/E09000030/council_tax/band_f": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000030/council_tax/band_f on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E06000023/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E06000023/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_f": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_f on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001096/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001096/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_g": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_g on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "age_structure/E14001301/age/20_30": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell age_structure/E14001301/age/20_30 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_f": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_f on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/E07000178/council_tax/band_e": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/E07000178/council_tax/band_e on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/S12000035/council_tax/band_b": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/S12000035/council_tax/band_b on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_b": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_b on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "council_tax/W06000018/council_tax/band_h": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell council_tax/W06000018/council_tax/band_h on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "domestic_energy/S14000051/energy/electricity_kwh": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell domestic_energy/S14000051/energy/electricity_kwh on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "tenure/E09000033/tenure/owned_mortgage": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell tenure/E09000033/tenure/owned_mortgage on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001172/hmrc/employment_income/amount": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell hmrc_income_by_area/E14001172/hmrc/employment_income/amount on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "uc_households/E14001098/uc_hh_3plus_children": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell uc_households/E14001098/uc_hh_3plus_children on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001268/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell hmrc_income_by_area/E14001268/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", + "release_lines": [ + "local" + ] + }, + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001535/hmrc/higher_rate_taxpayers/count": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the local cell hmrc_income_by_area/E14001535/hmrc/higher_rate_taxpayers/count on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_references.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_references.json index 14d9d9f8fa..2b50fc4728 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_references.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_references.json @@ -255,6 +255,10 @@ "dft.local_bus_journeys": { "provider_id": "dft", "label": "Local bus passenger journeys" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind": { + "provider_id": "hmrc", + "label": "Benefits in kind" } }, "target_categories": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index ff8aadfba6..094d9234ce 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -472,7 +472,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -495,7 +495,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -518,7 +518,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -540,7 +540,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -562,15 +562,19 @@ "company_car_capital_contributions", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "required_mass_change_reason": "Company cars per employee from the FRS job record, WAS round-8 list prices and HMRC's company car tables on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [ "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "The FRS job record's company car answers through frs_spine's carriers (EXPBEN01, EXPBEN03, CARVAL, FUELTYP, CARCON, CARAMT), WAS round-8 company cars' list prices, and HMRC's 2024-25 company car recipients by CO2 band (Table 2A) and fuel (Table 2C), via the vendored facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 job record; Wealth and Assets Survey round 8; HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026)" @@ -599,7 +603,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -619,7 +623,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -641,7 +645,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "High-value home support divides every owner household in the top value stratum of its region into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Microcosm structural operator (microcosm#1240 fix 1); no publisher input", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and SPI synthetic support, after the WAS wealth draw and the regional property uprating" @@ -662,7 +666,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -686,7 +690,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "6a2ba5e3e43c6d7936416552aadc716729b902dcac24b97093ae8ccf06cf8a8f", @@ -776,7 +780,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -803,7 +807,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ISA subscriptions per adult from HMRC's ISA tables on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Individual Savings Account statistics Tables 9.4, 9.6 and 9.7 to 9.9, the cash ISA limit reduction impact note and Lifetime ISA Table 1a, via the vendored facts; Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "HMRC Annual savings statistics (September 2026 release); Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -873,7 +877,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9603 Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25 (2nd edition) household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2024 mean kWh, DESNZ Energy Trends and QEP average prices paid for calendar 2024, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS Consumer Trends) and road fuel by vehicle type (DESNZ), ONS Consumer Trends household spending by COICOP division, the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use, the NTS private cars (UK Data Service SN 5340, End User Licence; the vehicle and household tabs, survey years 2022-2024) for the zero-emission share by income fifth and the household-paid road-fuel mix, and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables and fares indices.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25" @@ -899,7 +903,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -919,7 +923,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Private-school attendance stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "policyengine-uk attends_private_school (the gov.simulation.private_school_vat attendance rates and factor), evaluated by the pinned engine", "survey": "policyengine-uk private-school attendance imputation, stored at the spine's weights" @@ -942,7 +946,7 @@ "property_finance_costs" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/property-rental-income-statistics", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (tax year 2024-25)" @@ -963,7 +967,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Annual property purchases imputed on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Annual Stamp Tax Statistics 2024 to 2025 (corrected 11 March 2026), Tables 6b, 8a and 8b" @@ -986,7 +990,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "uk/high_value_home_value_knots.json, built by tools/build_uk_high_value_home_stock.py from PolicyEngine/chronicle#343's registrations", "survey": "HM Land Registry Price Paid latest sales uprated with the UK House Price Index, owner-weighted by region (the dense value node's knots, region level)" @@ -1010,7 +1014,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and the UK House Price Index regional average price averaged over the twelve months of calendar 2024 from the July 2026 full file, the frame's valuation basis, so the engine's annual uprating from 2024 projects the value once (microcosm#1240 fix 5).", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -1038,7 +1042,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -1071,7 +1075,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -1094,7 +1098,7 @@ "student_loan_balance" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -1114,7 +1118,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Self-employed gross receipts stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "self_employment_income after the SPI income stage; HMRC's published gainers of the raise to GBP 3,000, about 400,000 taxpayers with a lower bill by about GBP 380 on average", "survey": "The self-employed's own profit on the final spine, and HMRC's policy paper on the Budget 2026 trading allowance raise (calibration)" @@ -1136,7 +1140,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -1175,7 +1179,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "deeba6e923f5cceeab7c12fbfa12d33d8df1d6b95482a9c3db4cd9d2d9e5de2f", + "source_manifest_sha256": "3e03bb655917c448f2404d760d703697a28a066284d755234b2ac7105fd53589", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index b0d535bace..696c3920c5 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -2697,9 +2697,11 @@ "company_car_co2_emissions", "company_car_electric_range", "company_car_capital_contributions", - "employment_income" + "employment_income", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], - "notes": "Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0's company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows' pay without the car benefits, as the engine's employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (María's ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine's carriers record; a tape row of the SPI channel (person_is_spi_income_recipient) keeps its twin's only where its drawn EPB is positive, and the channel's other rows, which keep their twin's pay, keep its car. Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C's shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others' electric share raised to keep Table 2C's at the stage's weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent's CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars' prices grown by the engine's CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A's shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine's defaults, which no survey records. A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine's car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains): where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (María's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row's UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root's rule again on the carved pay. No HMRC fact is a calibration target: binding the cells the stage draws to would be circular. No build step reads Tables 1, 3A and 4 after calibration yet: comparing the calibrated file with them is a manual step.", + "notes": "Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0's company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows' pay without the car benefits, as the engine's employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (María's ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine's carriers record, and every row of the SPI channel keeps its twin's: the tape rows (person_is_spi_income_recipient), whatever EPB they drew, since the car never conditions it, and the channel's other rows, which keep their twin's pay (María's rulings of 3 November 2026). Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C's shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others' electric share raised to keep Table 2C's at the stage's weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent's CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars' prices grown by the engine's CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A's shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine's defaults, which no survey records. A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine's car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB + PAY within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains; cap epb_then_pay): EPB holds them first, and the part above EPB moves from the row's hmrc_spi_pay into its hmrc_spi_employment_benefits so its PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape's (a cap of EPB alone dropped or shrank cars on rows that drew a little EPB, Vahid's review of microcosm#1491); where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (María's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row's UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root's rule again on the carved pay. The national calibration binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value, the value measured at 2024-25 rates, and Table 2C's recipients by fuel (uk_population_targets.json, María's ruling of 3 November 2026); the vendored facts only seed the draws, and comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step.", "operations": [ { "artifact_role": "benefits_in_kind_facts", @@ -2830,14 +2832,18 @@ "company_car_benefit", "car_fuel_benefit" ], + "cap": "epb_then_pay", "epb_column": "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", "kind": "carve_spi_company_car_benefits", "minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp": 5000, "outputs": [ "employment_income", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" - ] + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" + ], + "pay_column": "hmrc_spi_pay" }, { "declared_factor": 1, @@ -2848,8 +2854,9 @@ }, { "adjudication": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/issues/316", + "calibrated_facts": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026), 2024-25: Table 1's car recipients and car taxable value (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients, hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value) and Table 2C's recipients by fuel (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.*) in uk_population_targets.json, María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418).", "calibration_permitted": false, - "classification_rationale": "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C, so binding them in the weight solve would be circular. Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 1, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build.", + "classification_rationale": "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C from this resource, which the weight solve never reads. The national calibration binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value and Table 2C's recipients by fuel from the Chronicle feed instead (calibrated_facts). Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build.", "fact_fence_id": "company_car_facts_imputation_seeds_measured_only", "fenced_fact_composition": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026): Table 1 car and car fuel benefit recipients, taxable value, income tax and NICs; Table 2A recipients by CO2 band; Table 2C recipients by fuel; Tables 3A and 3B recipients and taxable value by income range; Table 4 recipients by region", "fenced_fact_count": 96, @@ -2864,11 +2871,15 @@ "company_car_capital_contributions", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "rewrites": [ "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "source": "The FRS job record's company car answers through frs_spine's carriers (EXPBEN01, EXPBEN03, CARVAL, FUELTYP, CARCON, CARAMT), WAS round-8 company cars' list prices, and HMRC's 2024-25 company car recipients by CO2 band (Table 2A) and fuel (Table 2C), via the vendored facts", "stage": "company_cars", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index e08d84f416..755083e946 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -2401,10 +2401,14 @@ stages: - employment_income - company_car_private_fuel_provided - uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment + - hmrc_spi_pay + - hmrc_spi_employment_benefits epb_column: hmrc_spi_employment_benefits + pay_column: hmrc_spi_pay benefits: - company_car_benefit - car_fuel_benefit + cap: epb_then_pay minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp: 5000.0 - kind: record_mass_conservation_receipt entity: household @@ -2416,8 +2420,9 @@ stages: fact_fence_id: company_car_facts_imputation_seeds_measured_only fenced_fact_count: 96 fenced_fact_composition: 'HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026): Table 1 car and car fuel benefit recipients, taxable value, income tax and NICs; Table 2A recipients by CO2 band; Table 2C recipients by fuel; Tables 3A and 3B recipients and taxable value by income range; Table 4 recipients by region' - classification_rationale: The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C, so binding them in the weight solve would be circular. Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 1, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build. + classification_rationale: The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C from this resource, which the weight solve never reads. The national calibration binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value and Table 2C's recipients by fuel from the Chronicle feed instead (calibrated_facts). Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build. adjudication: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/issues/316 + calibrated_facts: 'HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026), 2024-25: Table 1''s car recipients and car taxable value (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients, hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value) and Table 2C''s recipients by fuel (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.*) in uk_population_targets.json, María''s ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418).' outputs: - company_car_list_price - company_car_co2_emissions @@ -2427,16 +2432,22 @@ stages: - company_car_private_fuel_provided - employment_income - uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment + - hmrc_spi_pay + - hmrc_spi_employment_benefits nonnegative_outputs: - company_car_list_price - company_car_co2_emissions - company_car_electric_range - company_car_capital_contributions - employment_income + - hmrc_spi_pay + - hmrc_spi_employment_benefits rewrites: - employment_income - uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment - notes: 'Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0''s company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows'' pay without the car benefits, as the engine''s employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (María''s ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine''s carriers record; a tape row of the SPI channel (person_is_spi_income_recipient) keeps its twin''s only where its drawn EPB is positive, and the channel''s other rows, which keep their twin''s pay, keep its car. Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C''s shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others'' electric share raised to keep Table 2C''s at the stage''s weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent''s CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars'' prices grown by the engine''s CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A''s shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine''s defaults, which no survey records. A tape row''s pay is the tape''s PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine''s car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB within the pay the row''s employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains): where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (María''s rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car''s appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row''s UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root''s rule again on the carved pay. No HMRC fact is a calibration target: binding the cells the stage draws to would be circular. No build step reads Tables 1, 3A and 4 after calibration yet: comparing the calibrated file with them is a manual step.' + - hmrc_spi_pay + - hmrc_spi_employment_benefits + notes: 'Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0''s company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows'' pay without the car benefits, as the engine''s employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (María''s ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine''s carriers record, and every row of the SPI channel keeps its twin''s: the tape rows (person_is_spi_income_recipient), whatever EPB they drew, since the car never conditions it, and the channel''s other rows, which keep their twin''s pay (María''s rulings of 3 November 2026). Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C''s shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others'' electric share raised to keep Table 2C''s at the stage''s weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent''s CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars'' prices grown by the engine''s CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A''s shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine''s defaults, which no survey records. A tape row''s pay is the tape''s PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine''s car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB + PAY within the pay the row''s employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains; cap epb_then_pay): EPB holds them first, and the part above EPB moves from the row''s hmrc_spi_pay into its hmrc_spi_employment_benefits so its PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape''s (a cap of EPB alone dropped or shrank cars on rows that drew a little EPB, Vahid''s review of microcosm#1491); where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (María''s rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car''s appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row''s UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root''s rule again on the carved pay. The national calibration binds Table 1''s car recipients and taxable value, the value measured at 2024-25 rates, and Table 2C''s recipients by fuel (uk_population_targets.json, María''s ruling of 3 November 2026); the vendored facts only seed the draws, and comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step.' - stage: spi_housing_shell survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 base households' housing (tenure, dwelling type, bedrooms, council tax, housing costs and the housing-linked benefit reports), imputed onto the SPI support households from their own region, composition and post-SPI incomes. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json index 01aa01ffb4..b32b6f3c78 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -62,22 +62,52 @@ "local" ] }, - "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_20000@2025": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_20000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc.spi.employment_income.count_by_self_employment_income_band.band_1000_2000@2025": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi.employment_income.count_by_self_employment_income_band.band_1000_2000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", "release_lines": [ "local" ] }, - "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_30000@2025": { - "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_30000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", - "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route, drafted from the first dense build of the pair on microcosm#1411 (sign-off 2026-10-27)", - "approved_on": "2026-10-27", - "expires_on": "2026-11-24", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "expires_on": "2026-12-01", + "release_lines": [ + "local" + ] + }, + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", + "release_lines": [ + "local" + ] + }, + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", + "release_lines": [ + "local" + ] + }, + "hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": { + "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)", + "approved_on": "2026-11-04", + "expires_on": "2026-12-02", "release_lines": [ "local" ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_reference_membership.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_reference_membership.json index 639b208c3c..d4f065f685 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_reference_membership.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_reference_membership.json @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ { "source_fact_feed": "chronicle-uk-08962f1-consumer-facts", "target_period": 2025, - "candidate_count": 1457, - "contract_target_count": 400, - "active_reference_count": 1420, + "candidate_count": 1462, + "contract_target_count": 405, + "active_reference_count": 1425, "status_counts": { - "active": 1420, + "active": 1425, "signed_excluded": 37 }, "geography_pins": { @@ -4655,6 +4655,26 @@ "geography_level": "country", "geography_id": "K02000001" }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients": { + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value": { + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric": { + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids": { + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids": { + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers": { "geography_level": "country", "geography_id": "K02000001" @@ -11419,6 +11439,31 @@ "from": "2025-08", "to": "2025" }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "from": "2024", + "to": "2025" + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "from": "2024", + "to": "2025" + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "from": "2024", + "to": "2025" + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "from": "2024", + "to": "2025" + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "from": "2024", + "to": "2025" + }, { "name": "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers", "from": "2024", @@ -32415,6 +32460,81 @@ } ] }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients": { + "status": "active", + "candidates": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "status": "active", + "matched_fact_count_overall": 1, + "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 1, + "resolved_period": 2025, + "resolved_value": 920000.0, + "resolved_fact_period": "2024", + "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_7d770efdd7134073af2341a6" + } + ] + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value": { + "status": "active", + "candidates": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "status": "active", + "matched_fact_count_overall": 1, + "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 1, + "resolved_period": 2025, + "resolved_value": 3070000000.0, + "resolved_fact_period": "2024", + "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_b036c7a54c3c0ea9089d5114" + } + ] + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric": { + "status": "active", + "candidates": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "status": "active", + "matched_fact_count_overall": 1, + "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 1, + "resolved_period": 2025, + "resolved_value": 465000.0, + "resolved_fact_period": "2024", + "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_3b60b8f7d982772345e8008a" + } + ] + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids": { + "status": "active", + "candidates": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "status": "active", + "matched_fact_count_overall": 1, + "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 1, + "resolved_period": 2025, + "resolved_value": 390000.0, + "resolved_fact_period": "2024", + "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_38c25d0c99cf361170a8251e" + } + ] + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids": { + "status": "active", + "candidates": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "status": "active", + "matched_fact_count_overall": 1, + "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 1, + "resolved_period": 2025, + "resolved_value": 60000.0, + "resolved_fact_period": "2024", + "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_58c4aa76a9d3ef1ce3e332f7" + } + ] + }, "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers": { "status": "active", "candidates": [ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_references.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_references.json index 973608b81a..f10918930d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_references.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_references.json @@ -255,6 +255,10 @@ "dft.local_bus_journeys": { "provider_id": "dft", "label": "Local bus passenger journeys" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind": { + "provider_id": "hmrc", + "label": "Benefits in kind" } }, "target_categories": { @@ -386,6 +390,11 @@ "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_claimant_pip": "dwp.universal_credit_two_child_limit", "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_disabled_child_element": "dwp.universal_credit_two_child_limit", "dwp.workplace_pension.employer_contributions": "dwp.workplace_pensions", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", "hmrc.cgt.badr_ir_qualifying_gains_by_band": "hmrc.capital_gains_tax", "hmrc.cgt.badr_ir_taxpayers_by_band": "hmrc.capital_gains_tax", "hmrc.cgt.gains_by_age_band": "hmrc.capital_gains_tax", @@ -781,6 +790,11 @@ "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_claimant_pip": "Households claimant Personal Independence Payment", "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_disabled_child_element": "Households disabled child element", "dwp.workplace_pension.employer_contributions": "Employer workplace pension contributions, Great Britain", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids": "Company car recipients, diesel including hybrids", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric": "Company car recipients, fully electric", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids": "Company car recipients, petrol including hybrids", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients": "Company car benefit recipients", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value": "Company car benefit taxable value", "hmrc.cgt.badr_ir_qualifying_gains_by_band": "Capital Gains Tax BADR and Investors' Relief qualifying gains by band", "hmrc.cgt.badr_ir_taxpayers_by_band": "Capital Gains Tax BADR and Investors' Relief claimants by band of qualifying gain", "hmrc.cgt.gains_by_age_band": "Capital Gains Tax gains by age band", @@ -49959,6 +49973,141 @@ "uprating_from_period": "2025-08", "uprating_to_period": 2025 }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table1.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024, + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "entity": "person", + "measure": "hmrc/company_car_recipients", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "period": 2025, + "metadata": { + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column" + }, + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": 2025 + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_taxable_value", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table1.taxable_value.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024, + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "entity": "person", + "measure": "hmrc/company_car_taxable_value", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "period": 2025, + "metadata": { + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column", + "measurement_period": "2024", + "source_period_policy": "exact_observation" + }, + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": 2025 + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "fully_electric" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024, + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "entity": "person", + "measure": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_fully_electric", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "period": 2025, + "metadata": { + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column" + }, + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": 2025 + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "petrol_including_hybrids" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024, + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "entity": "person", + "measure": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_petrol_including_hybrids", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "period": 2025, + "metadata": { + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column" + }, + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": 2025 + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "diesel_including_hybrids" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024, + "geography_level": "country", + "geography_id": "K02000001" + }, + "entity": "person", + "measure": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_diesel_including_hybrids", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "period": 2025, + "metadata": { + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column" + }, + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": 2025 + }, { "name": "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers", "ledger_selector": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json index 332e0e022c..709bdffdb8 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json @@ -898,6 +898,11 @@ "hmrc.spi.self_employment_income.count_by_self_employment_income_band": "New declaration backed by SPI 2023-24 Table 3.10 in Chronicle (spi_income_bands_2023_24, PolicyEngine/chronicle#394); no uk-data metric holds self-employment income by self-employment band (microcosm#1418).", "hmrc.spi.self_employment_income.amount_by_self_employment_income_band": "New declaration backed by SPI 2023-24 Table 3.10 in Chronicle (spi_income_bands_2023_24, PolicyEngine/chronicle#394); no uk-data metric holds self-employment income by self-employment band (microcosm#1418).", "hmrc.spi.employment_income.count_by_self_employment_income_band": "New declaration backed by SPI 2023-24 Table 3.10 in Chronicle (spi_income_bands_2023_24, PolicyEngine/chronicle#394); no uk-data metric holds employment income by self-employment band (microcosm#1418).", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients": "New declaration backed by HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 1 2024-25 in Chronicle (hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026, PolicyEngine/chronicle#399); no uk-data metric holds company cars (microcosm#1418).", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value": "New declaration backed by HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 1 2024-25 in Chronicle (hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026, PolicyEngine/chronicle#399); no uk-data metric holds company cars (microcosm#1418).", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric": "New declaration backed by HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C 2024-25 in Chronicle (hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026, PolicyEngine/chronicle#399); no uk-data metric holds company cars (microcosm#1418).", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids": "New declaration backed by HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C 2024-25 in Chronicle (hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026, PolicyEngine/chronicle#399); no uk-data metric holds company cars (microcosm#1418).", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids": "New declaration backed by HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C 2024-25 in Chronicle (hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026, PolicyEngine/chronicle#399); no uk-data metric holds company cars (microcosm#1418).", "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers": "No incumbent target: uk-data binds no High Income Child Benefit Charge row; microcosm#1095 adds HMRC's Table 16 count and revenue (Child Benefit Statistics, August 2025) as measured diagnostics.", "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_revenue": "No incumbent target: uk-data binds no High Income Child Benefit Charge row; microcosm#1095 adds HMRC's Table 16 count and revenue (Child Benefit Statistics, August 2025) as measured diagnostics." }, @@ -1335,6 +1340,11 @@ "hmrc.child_benefit.families_in_payment.children_3", "hmrc.child_benefit.families_in_payment.children_4", "hmrc.child_benefit.families_in_payment.children_5_plus", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers", "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_revenue" ] @@ -31201,6 +31211,292 @@ } ] }, + { + "target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "geography_levels": [ + "country" + ], + "measurement": { + "entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "concept": "uk.person.count", + "filters": [ + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + } + ] + }, + "bindings": { + "policyengine": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients", + "value_variable": "person_count", + "from_entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "filters": [ + { + "variable": "company_car_list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + } + ], + "notes": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 1, 2024-25 provisional: individuals taxed on a company car, from employers' P11D returns and the cars they payroll, a car reported both ways counted once (920,000, rounded by HMRC to the nearest 10,000). Bound at the calibration year as HMRC's 2024-25 count, the latest year published: no index projects company car holders, and the 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027 (uprating_holds.json). Counts each person with a company car on the frame, company_car_list_price above zero, the inputs the company_cars stage writes for every holder and no one else (the engine's has_company_car reads the same price). Bound with the taxable value and Table 2C's fuel counts so the frame carries the company car base Budget 2026's 2030-31 rise in every appropriate percentage acts on (Table 6.1 row 86), which no row bound before (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418)). Table 1's 2024-25 statistics leave out some company cars HMRC's sources miss, as its note says." + }, + "axiom": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients", + "status": "pending", + "value_rule": "uk.person.count" + } + }, + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table1.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024 + }, + "category_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "label": "Company car benefit recipients" + }, + { + "target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "geography_levels": [ + "country" + ], + "measurement": { + "entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.taxable_value.amount" + }, + "bindings": { + "policyengine": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_taxable_value", + "value_variable": "company_car_benefit_2024", + "from_entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "measurement_period": 2024, + "require_matching_fact_period": true, + "notes": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 1, 2024-25 provisional: the taxable value of the company car benefit (GBP 3,070m, rounded by HMRC to the nearest GBP 10m). Measured as the engine's company car benefit in 2024-25 on the frame's stored car inputs (company_car_benefit_2024; measurement_period 2024, require_matching_fact_period), as the CGT rows are measured under the 2024-25 rules: the engine's calibration-year appropriate percentages are a point higher from 2025-26, so measuring 2025 would hold the 2024-25 total against 2025-26 rates and pull the base down. The benefit is the price less contributions up to the cap, times the appropriate percentage, with availability and payments for private use at the engine's defaults, which no survey records. Bound with the holders and Table 2C's fuel counts, it pins the mix of prices and percentages beside the count (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418)); the list price base the 2030-31 rise acts on is still measured, not bound, since no HMRC table publishes it." + }, + "axiom": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_taxable_value", + "status": "pending", + "value_rule": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.taxable_value.amount" + } + }, + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_taxable_value", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table1.taxable_value.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024 + }, + "category_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "label": "Company car benefit taxable value" + }, + { + "target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "geography_levels": [ + "country" + ], + "measurement": { + "entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "concept": "uk.person.count", + "filters": [ + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.fuel_type", + "equals": "fully_electric" + } + ] + }, + "bindings": { + "policyengine": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_fully_electric", + "value_variable": "person_count", + "from_entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "filters": [ + { + "variable": "company_car_list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "variable": "company_car_fuel_type", + "equals": "ELECTRIC" + } + ], + "notes": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C, 2024-25 provisional: company car recipients whose car is fully electric (465,000), the engine's ELECTRIC fuel type. Bound at the calibration year as HMRC's 2024-25 count, the latest year published: no index projects company car holders, and the 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027 (uprating_holds.json). Counts each person with a company car on the frame, company_car_list_price above zero, the inputs the company_cars stage writes for every holder and no one else (the engine's has_company_car reads the same price). The three fuel rows sum to 915,000, 5,000 below Table 1's 920,000, from HMRC's rounding, so the solve meets the four within that gap. Bound to bring the frame's fuel mix to HMRC's 2024-25 shares rather than the FRS respondents' answers (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418)); if the reweighting distorts other targets, redrawing the fuel types in the company_cars stage is the next step. The stage still draws the unknown fuels at Table 2C's shares (uk/source_stages.json), which these rows now bind as well." + }, + "axiom": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_fully_electric", + "status": "pending", + "value_rule": "uk.person.count" + } + }, + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "fully_electric" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024 + }, + "category_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "label": "Company car recipients, fully electric" + }, + { + "target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "geography_levels": [ + "country" + ], + "measurement": { + "entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "concept": "uk.person.count", + "filters": [ + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.fuel_type", + "equals": "petrol_including_hybrids" + } + ] + }, + "bindings": { + "policyengine": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_petrol_including_hybrids", + "value_variable": "person_count", + "from_entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "filters": [ + { + "variable": "company_car_list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "variable": "company_car_fuel_type", + "in": [ + "PETROL", + "ALTERNATIVE_FUEL" + ] + } + ], + "notes": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C, 2024-25 provisional: company car recipients whose car runs on petrol, hybrids included (390,000): the engine's PETROL and ALTERNATIVE_FUEL fuel types. The company_cars stage maps the FRS hybrids and other fuels to ALTERNATIVE_FUEL, and Table 2C counts each hybrid with its fuel; diesel hybrids are few, so every hybrid is counted with petrol. Bound at the calibration year as HMRC's 2024-25 count, the latest year published: no index projects company car holders, and the 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027 (uprating_holds.json). Counts each person with a company car on the frame, company_car_list_price above zero, the inputs the company_cars stage writes for every holder and no one else (the engine's has_company_car reads the same price). The three fuel rows sum to 915,000, 5,000 below Table 1's 920,000, from HMRC's rounding, so the solve meets the four within that gap. Bound to bring the frame's fuel mix to HMRC's 2024-25 shares rather than the FRS respondents' answers (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418)); if the reweighting distorts other targets, redrawing the fuel types in the company_cars stage is the next step. The stage still draws the unknown fuels at Table 2C's shares (uk/source_stages.json), which these rows now bind as well." + }, + "axiom": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_petrol_including_hybrids", + "status": "pending", + "value_rule": "uk.person.count" + } + }, + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "petrol_including_hybrids" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024 + }, + "category_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "label": "Company car recipients, petrol including hybrids" + }, + { + "target_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "family": "hmrc_benefits_in_kind", + "geography_levels": [ + "country" + ], + "measurement": { + "entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "concept": "uk.person.count", + "filters": [ + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "concept": "uk.benefits_in_kind.company_car.fuel_type", + "equals": "diesel_including_hybrids" + } + ] + }, + "bindings": { + "policyengine": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_diesel_including_hybrids", + "value_variable": "person_count", + "from_entity": "person", + "map_to": "household", + "filters": [ + { + "variable": "company_car_list_price", + "operator": ">", + "value": 0 + }, + { + "variable": "company_car_fuel_type", + "in": [ + "DIESEL_RDE2", + "DIESEL_NON_RDE2" + ] + } + ], + "notes": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 2C, 2024-25 provisional: company car recipients whose car runs on diesel, hybrids included (60,000): the engine's two diesel fuel types (the stage writes DIESEL_RDE2). Diesel hybrids are counted with petrol on the frame (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids). Bound at the calibration year as HMRC's 2024-25 count, the latest year published: no index projects company car holders, and the 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027 (uprating_holds.json). Counts each person with a company car on the frame, company_car_list_price above zero, the inputs the company_cars stage writes for every holder and no one else (the engine's has_company_car reads the same price). The three fuel rows sum to 915,000, 5,000 below Table 1's 920,000, from HMRC's rounding, so the solve meets the four within that gap. Bound to bring the frame's fuel mix to HMRC's 2024-25 shares rather than the FRS respondents' answers (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418)); if the reweighting distorts other targets, redrawing the fuel types in the company_cars stage is the next step. The stage still draws the unknown fuels at Table 2C's shares (uk/source_stages.json), which these rows now bind as well." + }, + "axiom": { + "metric_name": "hmrc/company_car_recipients_diesel_including_hybrids", + "status": "pending", + "value_rule": "uk.person.count" + } + }, + "ledger_selector": { + "source_name": "hmrc", + "source_concept": "hmrc.benefit_in_kind_recipients", + "record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind_july_2026.table2c.recipients.ty2024.v1", + "dimension_values": { + "company_car_benefit_type": "car", + "company_car_fuel_type": "diesel_including_hybrids" + }, + "entity_name": "person", + "period_type": "tax_year", + "period_value": 2024 + }, + "category_id": "hmrc.benefits_in_kind", + "label": "Company car recipients, diesel including hybrids" + }, { "target_id": "hmrc.child_benefit.hicbc_liable_taxpayers", "family": "hmrc_child_benefit", @@ -35696,6 +35992,10 @@ "dft.local_bus_journeys": { "provider_id": "dft", "label": "Local bus passenger journeys" + }, + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind": { + "provider_id": "hmrc", + "label": "Benefits in kind" } } } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uprating_holds.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uprating_holds.json index 07b51bd47c..4e2075f165 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uprating_holds.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uprating_holds.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ { "schema_version": 1, - "description": "Declared reasons for UK targets bound at the 2025 calibration period from an older fact without an uprating index (microcosm#1123). Kinds: matched_period, in_year_snapshot, control_rescaled, reviewed_no_index. uk_runtime.uprating_holds refuses an undeclared, expired or stale hold at compile time. A hold is in force only once it carries approved_by and approved_on and its status is approved: the compile refuses the rows of any other entry. Every entry expires two months after its signature, so each is reviewed again by 2026-12-11.", + "description": "Declared reasons for UK targets bound at the 2025 calibration period from an older fact without an uprating index (microcosm#1123). Kinds: matched_period, in_year_snapshot, control_rescaled, reviewed_no_index. uk_runtime.uprating_holds refuses an undeclared, expired or stale hold at compile time. A hold is in force only once it carries approved_by and approved_on and its status is approved: the compile refuses the rows of any other entry. Every entry expires two months after its signature.", "holds": [ { "scope": "national", @@ -445,6 +445,35 @@ "status": "approved", "expires_on": "2026-12-11" }, + { + "scope": "national", + "kind": "matched_period", + "target_ids": [ + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value" + ], + "reason": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Table 1's 2024-25 taxable value of the company car benefit, the latest year published (provisional). The binding measures it as the engine's company car benefit in 2024-25 (company_car_benefit_2024; measurement_period 2024, require_matching_fact_period), so the 2025-26 appropriate percentages, a point higher, stay out of the comparison. HMRC's 2025-26 figures are due in July 2027.", + "tracking": "microcosm#1418", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "status": "approved", + "expires_on": "2027-01-03" + }, + { + "scope": "national", + "kind": "reviewed_no_index", + "target_ids": [ + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.diesel_including_hybrids", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.fully_electric", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.petrol_including_hybrids", + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients" + ], + "reason": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026) Tables 1 and 2C: company car recipients in 2024-25, in all and by fuel, the latest year published (provisional). No published index projects company car holders or their fuel mix, so the counts are held at their 2024-25 level until HMRC's 2025-26 figures, due in July 2027. Held flat, they probably understate 2025-26: Table 1's holders went 760,000, 840,000 and 920,000 over 2022-23 to 2024-25, and Table 2C's fully electric cars 220,000, 340,000 and 465,000 (the review of microcosm#1491, item 8). They count stored inputs, so the period they are measured at moves nothing but the fact (María's ruling of 3 November 2026 to bind them).", + "tracking": "microcosm#1418", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "approved_on": "2026-11-03", + "status": "approved", + "expires_on": "2027-01-03" + }, { "scope": "national", "kind": "reviewed_no_index", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/company_cars.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/company_cars.py index adf243b86f..28700104d4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/company_cars.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/company_cars.py @@ -23,19 +23,20 @@ FRS twin's carriers, as they carry every root column. The steps, every draw keyed on identity, so reordering rows moves none: -1. **Holders.** An FRS-channel person with a company car keeps it. A tape row of - the SPI channel (``person_is_spi_income_recipient``) keeps its twin's car only - where its drawn EPB (expenses payments and benefits in kind) is positive: EPB - holds the car benefit on the tape. The channel's other rows, the undrawn - copies and the dependants aged 16 to 19, keep their twin's pay and so keep its - car as FRS rows do. +1. **Holders.** An FRS-channel person with a company car keeps it, and so does + every row of the SPI channel, which carries its twin's carriers: the tape rows + (``person_is_spi_income_recipient``), the undrawn copies and the dependants + aged 16 to 19. A tape row's EPB (expenses payments and benefits in kind) is + drawn on uniforms the car never conditions, so every tape row keeps its + twin's car, whatever EPB it drew, and step 5 moves any part of the car's + benefits above its EPB from its PAY into its EPB (María's rulings of 3 + November 2026). 2. **Fuel.** The FRS fuel codes map to the engine's fuel types (a hybrid is an alternative fuel, a diesel is taken to meet RDE2, as the declaration says). The cars whose fuel the respondent did not know draw at Table 2C's shares together: where the respondent reports private fuel, among the fuels other than electricity, and the others draw electricity at the share that keeps - Table 2C's at the stage's weights. The tape rows that lose their car for - want of EPB draw at the holders' shares. + Table 2C's at the stage's weights. 3. **List price.** Within the respondent's band, a draw from WAS round-8 company cars' list prices, grown to the build year by the engine's CPI index; the open top band and an unknown band draw from the WAS cars of the same fuel class. @@ -46,15 +47,20 @@ 1 to 50 g/km matches Table 2A's among cars that emit CO2, and the bands above it are drawn at Table 2A's shares, uniformly within each. A car at 1 to 50 g/km takes the declared electric range. -5. **SPI pay.** A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so EPB already - holds the car and fuel benefits. The engine's benefits on the kept cars come - out of ``employment_income``, capped at EPB within the pay the row's employee - pension contribution leaves, which ``salary_sacrifice`` requires. Where the - car and fuel benefits do not fit together, private fuel goes first; a car - whose benefit still exceeds the cap has its list price scaled down to fit - (its contributions dropped), or is dropped below the declared minimum price - (María's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over - the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, the declared electric +5. **SPI pay.** A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM. The engine's + benefits on the kept cars come out of ``employment_income``, capped at EPB + + PAY within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves, which + ``salary_sacrifice`` requires. EPB holds them first, and the part above EPB + moves from the row's PAY into its EPB, so its PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the + tape's and its split agrees with what the engine taxes (María's rulings of 3 + November 2026; a cap of EPB alone dropped or shrank cars on the rows that drew + a little EPB, Vahid's review of microcosm#1491). Where the car and fuel + benefits do not fit together, private fuel goes first; a car whose benefit + still exceeds the cap has its list price scaled down to fit (its + contributions dropped), or is dropped below the declared minimum price + (María's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026), as a car on a row with neither + EPB nor PAY is. A scaled price is the room + over the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, the declared electric range and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base a later rate rise acts on. A carved row's UC gainful self-employment takes the root's rule again on its carved pay. The stage then prices the cars again on its output: pay plus @@ -120,6 +126,7 @@ ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.spi_support import ( SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, SPI_SYNTHETIC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, support_channel_column, ) @@ -157,9 +164,19 @@ "recipients and taxable value by income range; Table 4 recipients by region" ), "classification_rationale": ( - "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C, so binding them in the " - "weight solve would be circular. Comparing the calibrated file with Tables " - "1, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build." + "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C from this resource, which " + "the weight solve never reads. The national calibration binds Table 1's car " + "recipients and taxable value and Table 2C's recipients by fuel from the " + "Chronicle feed instead (calibrated_facts). Comparing the calibrated file with " + "Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build." + ), + "calibrated_facts": ( + "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026), 2024-25: Table 1's car recipients " + "and car taxable value (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients, " + "hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value) and Table 2C's recipients " + "by fuel (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.*) in " + "uk_population_targets.json, María's ruling of 3 November 2026 " + "(microcosm#1418)." ), "adjudication": ( "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/issues/316" @@ -200,12 +217,15 @@ CAPITAL_CONTRIBUTIONS, PRIVATE_FUEL, ) -#: The manifest's outputs: the inputs, the tape rows' pay it rewrites, and their -#: UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage derived from that pay. +#: The manifest's outputs: the inputs, the tape rows' pay it rewrites, their +#: UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage derived from that pay, +#: and the PAY and EPB of the tape rows whose car's benefit moves into EPB. UK_COMPANY_CARS_OUTPUT_COLUMNS = ( *UK_COMPANY_CARS_INPUT_COLUMNS, EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, ) UK_COMPANY_CARS_NONNEGATIVE_OUTPUT_COLUMNS = ( LIST_PRICE, @@ -213,8 +233,15 @@ ELECTRIC_RANGE, CAPITAL_CONTRIBUTIONS, EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, +) +UK_COMPANY_CARS_REWRITES = ( + EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, + UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, ) -UK_COMPANY_CARS_REWRITES = (EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT) #: The engine variables the SPI carve-out reads. COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT = "company_car_benefit" CAR_FUEL_BENEFIT = "car_fuel_benefit" @@ -233,6 +260,10 @@ #: fuel, which an electric car cannot carry, and with the others' electric share #: raised to keep Table 2C's. UNKNOWN_FUEL_RULE = "table_2c_shares_together_non_electric_with_private_fuel" +#: The declared cap on a tape row's car benefits: EPB + PAY within the pay its +#: employee pension contribution leaves, EPB holding them first and the part +#: above it moving from PAY into EPB. +CARVE_CAP_RULE = "epb_then_pay" CPI_INDEX = "gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index" CAPITAL_CONTRIBUTION_CAP = ( @@ -352,13 +383,22 @@ def from_stage(cls, stage: SourceStageSpec) -> CompanyCarsSpec: if fence != UK_COMPANY_CAR_FACT_FENCE: raise CompanyCarsError( "the declared company car fact fence differs from the reviewed one: " - "no company car fact is a calibration target." + "the vendored facts seed the draws and none is a calibration target." ) for operation, outputs in ( (fuel, [FUEL_TYPE]), (prices, [LIST_PRICE, CAPITAL_CONTRIBUTIONS]), (co2, [CO2_EMISSIONS, ELECTRIC_RANGE]), - (carve, [EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, PRIVATE_FUEL, UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT]), + ( + carve, + [ + EMPLOYMENT_INCOME, + PRIVATE_FUEL, + UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, + ], + ), ): if list(operation.get("outputs", ())) != outputs: raise CompanyCarsError( @@ -391,12 +431,17 @@ def from_stage(cls, stage: SourceStageSpec) -> CompanyCarsSpec: "CO2 is drawn to Table 2A's shares among cars that emit it, " "hybrids first into 1 to 50 g/km." ) - if carve.get("epb_column") != SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN or list( - carve.get("benefits", ()) - ) != [COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT, CAR_FUEL_BENEFIT]: + if ( + carve.get("epb_column") != SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN + or carve.get("pay_column") != SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN + or carve.get("cap") != CARVE_CAP_RULE + or list(carve.get("benefits", ())) + != [COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT, CAR_FUEL_BENEFIT] + ): raise CompanyCarsError( "the SPI carve-out takes the engine's company car and car fuel " - f"benefits out of pay, capped at {SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN}." + f"benefits out of pay, capped at {SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN} + " + f"{SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN}, EPB first ({CARVE_CAP_RULE!r})." ) minimum_households = int(prices["minimum_donor_households"]) # No list price cell may rest on fewer WAS households than the @@ -533,7 +578,7 @@ def clean_was_company_car_donor( def holder_table(frame: Frame) -> pd.DataFrame: """One row per person: identity, weight, source household, channel, whether - it is a tape row, carriers, EPB and pay.""" + it is a tape row, carriers, the tape's EPB and PAY, and pay.""" person = frame.table("person") household = frame.table("household") @@ -568,6 +613,7 @@ def holder_table(frame: Frame) -> pd.DataFrame: column for column in ( SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, + SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, SPI_INCOME_RECIPIENT_COLUMN, EMPLOYEE_PENSION_CONTRIBUTIONS, *UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT_INPUTS, @@ -612,6 +658,7 @@ def _number(column: str) -> np.ndarray: "private_fuel": person[PRIVATE_FUEL_CARRIER].astype(bool).to_numpy(), "contribution": np.maximum(_number(CONTRIBUTION_CARRIER), 0.0), "epb": np.where(tape, _number(SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN), 0.0), + "spi_pay": np.where(tape, _number(SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN), 0.0), "employment_income": _number(EMPLOYMENT_INCOME), # The SPI income stage capped a tape row's net-pay contribution at # the pay it drew (spi_income, uk_runtime.pension_coherence). @@ -706,18 +753,15 @@ def assign_fuel_types( weights: np.ndarray, statistics: HMRCCompanyCarStatistics, spec: CompanyCarsSpec, - unfueled_electric: float | None = None, ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: """The engine fuel type of each car, and whether it was drawn. ``codes``, ``private_fuel`` and ``weights`` hold the cars only. An electric car carries no fuel benefit, so a car whose fuel is drawn and whose holder reports private fuel draws among the other fuels, at their Table 2C shares. - The other drawn cars draw electricity at ``unfueled_electric``, by default - the share that keeps Table 2C's among these drawn cars - (``unknown_fuel_electric_share``), and petrol and diesel at Table 2C's - shares between them. The tape rows that lose their car pass the holders' - share, so they draw as the holders do. + The other drawn cars draw electricity at the share that keeps Table 2C's + among these drawn cars (``unknown_fuel_electric_share``), and petrol and + diesel at Table 2C's shares between them. """ codes = np.asarray(codes, dtype=int) @@ -731,10 +775,9 @@ def assign_fuel_types( fuel = np.array([mapped.get(int(code), "") for code in codes], dtype=object) drawn = fuel == "" if drawn.any(): - if unfueled_electric is None: - unfueled_electric = unknown_fuel_electric_share( - codes, private_fuel=private_fuel, weights=weights, statistics=statistics - ) + unfueled_electric = unknown_fuel_electric_share( + codes, private_fuel=private_fuel, weights=weights, statistics=statistics + ) names = np.array([ELECTRIC, PETROL, spec.diesel_fuel_type], dtype=object) table_2c = _table_2c_shares(statistics) uniforms = _uniforms(ids[drawn], spec.fuel_seed, f"{spec.fuel_salt}:fuel") @@ -1047,6 +1090,7 @@ def _fit_inside( def carve_spi_benefits( *, epb: np.ndarray, + spi_pay: np.ndarray, pay: np.ndarray, employee_contributions: np.ndarray, list_price: np.ndarray, @@ -1057,13 +1101,18 @@ def carve_spi_benefits( contribution_cap: float, spec: CompanyCarsSpec, ) -> SPICarveOut: - """Fit each tape row's car benefits inside its EPB. - - Every array holds the tape rows' holders only. The cap is EPB within the - pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves: the SPI income stage - capped that contribution at the pay it drew, and ``salary_sacrifice`` - refuses one above the pay that remains, so the carve-out never takes pay - below it. Where the car and fuel benefits do not fit together, the private + """Fit each tape row's car benefits inside its EPB and PAY. + + Every array holds the tape rows' holders only; ``spi_pay`` is the tape's + PAY. The cap is EPB + PAY within the pay the row's employee pension + contribution leaves: the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the + pay it drew, and ``salary_sacrifice`` refuses one above the pay that + remains, so the carve-out never takes pay below it. EPB holds the benefits + first, and the stage moves the part above EPB from the row's PAY into its + EPB, which the cap leaves neither negative. EPB is drawn on uniforms the + car never conditions, so a small drawn EPB caps a car no more than a zero + one does (María's rulings of 3 November 2026, the second on Vahid's review + of microcosm#1491). Where the car and fuel benefits do not fit together, the private fuel goes first, so a car that fits without its fuel is always kept (María's ruling of 31 October 2026). A car whose benefit still exceeds the cap has its list price scaled down to fit. The engine's car benefit is the price @@ -1073,9 +1122,12 @@ def carve_spi_benefits( """ epb = np.maximum(np.asarray(epb, dtype=float), 0.0) + spi_pay = np.maximum(np.asarray(spi_pay, dtype=float), 0.0) pay = np.maximum(np.asarray(pay, dtype=float), 0.0) employee = np.maximum(np.asarray(employee_contributions, dtype=float), 0.0) - budget = np.minimum(epb, np.maximum(pay - employee, 0.0)) + without_epb = epb <= 0.0 + source = epb + spi_pay + budget = np.minimum(source, np.maximum(pay - employee, 0.0)) cars = { "car_benefit": car_benefit, "fuel_benefit": fuel_benefit, @@ -1086,19 +1138,30 @@ def carve_spi_benefits( "minimum_price": spec.minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp, } fit = _fit_inside(budget, **cars) - # The same cars inside EPB within pay alone: what the contribution's room - # costs, measured rather than ruled on (the third review of microcosm#1430). - # The room bites only where the SPI stage's drawn contribution exceeds the - # row's cash pay, PAY + TAXTERM. - without_room = _fit_inside(np.minimum(epb, pay), **cars) + # The same cars inside EPB + PAY within pay alone: what the contribution's + # room costs, measured rather than ruled on (the third review of + # microcosm#1430). + without_room = _fit_inside(np.minimum(source, pay), **cars) room_costs = fit["benefit"] < without_room["benefit"] - 1e-9 given_up = np.where(without_room["keep"], without_room["price"], 0.0) - np.where( fit["keep"], fit["price"], 0.0 ) + moved = np.maximum(fit["benefit"] - epb, 0.0) receipt = { "holders": rounded_count(int(len(epb))), - "cap_below_epb_for_the_employee_contribution": rounded_count( - int((budget < np.minimum(epb, pay)).sum()) + # The rows without EPB and those of them that keep their car; the rows + # with EPB whose car takes more than it, the rest from PAY; and the rows + # whose car takes all of their PAY, leaving TAXTERM as their cash pay. + "holders_without_epb": rounded_count(int(without_epb.sum())), + "kept_without_epb": rounded_count(int((without_epb & fit["keep"]).sum())), + "kept_with_epb_topped_up_from_pay": rounded_count( + int((~without_epb & fit["keep"] & (moved > 0.0)).sum()) + ), + "kept_leaving_no_pay": rounded_count( + int((fit["keep"] & (spi_pay > 0.0) & (spi_pay - moved <= 0.005)).sum()) + ), + "cap_below_epb_and_pay_for_the_employee_contribution": rounded_count( + int((budget < np.minimum(source, pay)).sum()) ), "cars_the_employee_contribution_scales_or_drops": rounded_count( int(room_costs.sum()) @@ -1206,8 +1269,8 @@ def impute_company_cars( benefits: BenefitCalculator, contribution_cap: float, ) -> tuple[Frame, dict[str, Any]]: - """Write the six inputs, carve the tape rows' benefits out of pay, and - receipt it.""" + """Write the six inputs, carve the tape rows' benefits out of pay (and, on + a row without EPB, out of PAY into EPB), and receipt it.""" table = holder_table(frame) ids = table["person_id"].to_numpy() @@ -1216,9 +1279,12 @@ def impute_company_cars( tape = table["tape"].to_numpy(bool) sources = table["source_household"].to_numpy() bands = table["price_band"].to_numpy(int) - reported = bands > 0 - no_epb = reported & tape & (table["epb"].to_numpy(float) <= 0.0) - holders = reported & ~no_epb + epb = table["epb"].to_numpy(float) + spi_pay = table["spi_pay"].to_numpy(float) + holders = bands > 0 + # Every tape row keeps its twin's car, whatever EPB it drew (María's rulings + # of 3 November 2026); the receipt counts the ones that drew none. + without_epb = holders & tape & (epb <= 0.0) def support(mask: np.ndarray) -> int: return distinct_count(sources, mask, weights) @@ -1228,12 +1294,6 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: fuel_codes = table["fuel_code"].to_numpy(int) reported_fuel = table["private_fuel"].to_numpy(bool) - unfueled_electric = unknown_fuel_electric_share( - fuel_codes[holders], - private_fuel=reported_fuel[holders], - weights=weights[holders], - statistics=statistics, - ) fuel, drawn = assign_fuel_types( fuel_codes[holders], ids[holders], @@ -1241,7 +1301,6 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: weights=weights[holders], statistics=statistics, spec=spec, - unfueled_electric=unfueled_electric, ) drawn_with_private_fuel = int((drawn & reported_fuel[holders]).sum()) hybrid = fuel_codes[holders] == FRS_COMPANY_CAR_FUEL_HYBRID @@ -1260,24 +1319,6 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: spec=spec, ) private = reported_fuel[holders] & ~electric - # The tape rows without EPB lose their twin's car, since EPB is drawn on - # uniforms the car never conditions; their fuels and prices, drawn as the - # holders' are (at the holders' electric share), measure the base that - # leaves with them (María's ruling of 31 October 2026: measure it first). - lost_price = np.zeros(len(ids)) - if no_epb.any(): - lost_fuel, _ = assign_fuel_types( - fuel_codes[no_epb], - ids[no_epb], - private_fuel=reported_fuel[no_epb], - weights=weights[no_epb], - statistics=statistics, - spec=spec, - unfueled_electric=unfueled_electric, - ) - lost_price[no_epb], _ = draw_list_prices( - bands[no_epb], lost_fuel == ELECTRIC, ids[no_epb], donor=donor, spec=spec - ) person = frame.table("person").copy() columns = { @@ -1301,6 +1342,7 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: employee = table["employee_contribution"].to_numpy(float) new_pay = pay.copy() carved = np.zeros(len(pay)) + moved = np.zeros(len(pay)) newly_gainful = np.zeros(len(pay), dtype=bool) tape_holders = holders & tape scaled_away = np.zeros(len(pay)) @@ -1308,11 +1350,11 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: carve_receipt: dict[str, Any] = {"holders": rounded_count(0)} identity_error = 0.0 if tape_holders.any(): - epb = table["epb"].to_numpy(float) car_benefit, fuel_benefit = benefits(_frame_with(frame, person, None)) rows = np.flatnonzero(tape_holders) carve = carve_spi_benefits( epb=epb[rows], + spi_pay=spi_pay[rows], pay=pay[rows], employee_contributions=employee[rows], list_price=columns[LIST_PRICE][rows], @@ -1344,6 +1386,20 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: for name, values in columns.items(): person[name] = values person[EMPLOYMENT_INCOME] = new_pay + # EPB holds the car's benefits first; the part above it moves from the + # row's PAY into its EPB, so its PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape's + # and its split agrees with what the engine taxes. + moved = np.where(tape, np.maximum(carved - epb, 0.0), 0.0) + shifted = moved > 0.0 + for name, values in ( + (SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN, epb + moved), + (SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN, spi_pay - moved), + ): + column = pd.to_numeric(person[name], errors="coerce").to_numpy( + float, copy=True + ) + column[shifted] = values[shifted] + person[name] = column gainful_before = person[UC_GAINFUL_SELF_EMPLOYMENT].astype(bool).to_numpy() gainful = refresh_uc_gainful_self_employment(person, carved > 0.0) newly_gainful = gainful & ~gainful_before @@ -1376,7 +1432,10 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: int(newly_gainful.sum()) ), "weighted_benefit_carved_gbp": total(carved, holders & tape), + # The EPB the tape rows' holders drew, and the benefits above it + # that moved from PAY into EPB. "weighted_epb_gbp": total(epb, tape_holders), + "weighted_pay_moved_into_epb_gbp": total(moved, moved > 0.0), "weighted_list_price_scaled_away_gbp": total(scaled_away, scaled), "weighted_list_price_dropped_gbp": total(scaled_away, dropped_rows), # Within those, the price the employee contribution's room takes @@ -1386,6 +1445,16 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: ), } + def written(column: str) -> np.ndarray: + """A tape row's column as the stage writes it (zero elsewhere).""" + + if column not in person: + return np.zeros(len(person)) + values = pd.to_numeric(person[column], errors="coerce").to_numpy(float) + return np.where(tape, values, 0.0) + + output_epb = written(SPI_HMRC_EMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS_COLUMN) + output_spi_pay = written(SPI_HMRC_PAY_COLUMN) fuel_type = columns[FUEL_TYPE] electric_holders = holders & (fuel_type == ELECTRIC) other_holders = holders & ~electric_holders @@ -1398,10 +1467,10 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: "frs_channel": rounded_count(int((holders & ~spi).sum())), "spi_channel_tape": rounded_count(int((holders & tape).sum())), "spi_channel_twin_pay": rounded_count(int((holders & spi & ~tape).sum())), - "spi_dropped_without_epb": { - "count": rounded_count(int(no_epb.sum())), - "weighted": total(np.ones(len(pay)), no_epb), - "weighted_list_price_gbp": total(lost_price, no_epb), + # The tape rows that keep their car on a drawn EPB of zero. + "spi_channel_tape_without_epb": { + "count": rounded_count(int((holders & without_epb).sum())), + "weighted": total(np.ones(len(pay)), holders & without_epb), }, "support": support_band(support(holders)), "weighted": total(np.ones(len(pay)), holders), @@ -1461,10 +1530,14 @@ def total(values: np.ndarray, mask: np.ndarray) -> float | str | None: columns, holders=holders, tape=tape, - epb=table["epb"].to_numpy(float), + epb=output_epb, carved=carved, pay=new_pay, employee_contributions=employee, + spi_pay=output_spi_pay, + spi_pay_and_epb_change=output_spi_pay + + output_epb + - (spi_pay + epb), ).items() }, "frs_holders_without_pay": rounded_count( @@ -1484,11 +1557,15 @@ def _violations( carved: np.ndarray, pay: np.ndarray, employee_contributions: np.ndarray, + spi_pay: np.ndarray, + spi_pay_and_epb_change: np.ndarray, ) -> dict[str, int]: """Counts of rows breaking an invariant every population keeps; all zero. - ``pay`` is the stage's output pay, and ``employee_contributions`` the tape - rows' net-pay contributions (zero elsewhere).""" + ``pay`` is the stage's output pay, ``epb`` and ``spi_pay`` the tape rows' + output EPB and PAY, ``spi_pay_and_epb_change`` how far their sum moved, and + ``employee_contributions`` the tape rows' net-pay contributions (zero + elsewhere).""" price = columns[LIST_PRICE] co2 = columns[CO2_EMISSIONS] @@ -1526,6 +1603,12 @@ def _violations( "employee_contribution_above_carved_pay": int( (tape & (employee_contributions > np.maximum(pay, 0.0) + 1e-6)).sum() ), + # The benefits a row without EPB moves into EPB come out of its PAY. + # Written so a NaN counts. + "spi_pay_below_zero": int((tape & ~(spi_pay >= -1e-6)).sum()), + "spi_pay_and_epb_moved": int( + (tape & ~(np.abs(spi_pay_and_epb_change) <= 1e-6)).sum() + ), } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py index a93d395cfb..a92703f32c 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py @@ -1303,9 +1303,12 @@ def _cells( _Cell("person", "company_car_capital_contributions", "float64"), _Cell("person", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "bool"), # A tape row's pay gives up the benefits carved out of it, and its UC - # gainful self-employment follows the carved pay. + # gainful self-employment follows the carved pay. On a tape row without + # EPB the benefits move from its PAY into its EPB. _Cell("person", "employment_income", "float64"), _Cell("person", "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", "bool"), + _Cell("person", "hmrc_spi_pay", "float64"), + _Cell("person", "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", "float64"), ), "childcare_copy_take_up": ( *_cells( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_company_car_statistics.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_company_car_statistics.py index 07cbbeea8f..d59fed33a8 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_company_car_statistics.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_company_car_statistics.py @@ -6,9 +6,11 @@ Class 1A NICs on the car and fuel benefits (Table 1), and recipients and taxable value by range of total income (Tables 3A and 3B) and by region (Table 4). They publish no list price and no electric range, and Tables 2A and 2C are margins: no -table crosses CO2 with fuel. The stage draws fuel and CO2 to the two margins; the -rest is measured against, never bound (María's ruling of 28 October 2026 for the -ISA facts, applied here: binding the cells a stage draws to would be circular). +table crosses CO2 with fuel. The stage draws fuel and CO2 to the two margins from +the vendored rows, which the weight solve never reads. The national calibration +binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value and Table 2C's recipients by fuel +from the Chronicle feed (María's ruling of 3 November 2026), and the rest is +measured against. The rows come from the Chronicle package ``hmrc-benefits-in-kind-july-2026`` (PolicyEngine/chronicle#399, for PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) @@ -20,6 +22,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations import hashlib +import re from collections.abc import Mapping from dataclasses import dataclass, field from importlib.resources import files @@ -31,6 +34,12 @@ ) HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_STATISTICS_RESOURCE = "hmrc_benefits_in_kind_facts.json" +#: The engine's company car benefit dated by its name to the year the engine +#: prices it in (``company_car_benefit_2024``). Table 1's taxable value is +#: 2024-25's, and the calibration year's appropriate percentages are a point +#: higher, so the national row reads the benefit in the tax year the table +#: counts, as the CGT rows read their gains (``cgt_2024_gains``). +HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_DATED_BENEFIT = re.compile(r"^company_car_benefit_(20[0-9]{2})$") HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_STATISTICS_ARTIFACT_ROLE = "benefits_in_kind_facts" #: The tax year the stage reads (2024-25, provisional in the July 2026 release), #: the build's period. @@ -363,9 +372,17 @@ def _check_published_identities(statistics: HMRCCompanyCarStatistics) -> None: ) +def company_car_dated_benefit_year(variable: str) -> int | None: + """The year a dated company car benefit is computed at, else None.""" + + match = HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_DATED_BENEFIT.fullmatch(variable) + return int(match[1]) if match else None + + __all__ = [ "HMRC_CO2_BANDS", "HMRC_CO2_BAND_IDS", + "HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_DATED_BENEFIT", "HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_RECORD_SETS", "HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_STATISTICS_ARTIFACT_ROLE", "HMRC_COMPANY_CAR_STATISTICS_RESOURCE", @@ -377,5 +394,6 @@ def _check_published_identities(statistics: HMRCCompanyCarStatistics) -> None: "HMRCCompanyCarStatisticsError", "check_company_car_statistics_declaration", "co2_band_bounds", + "company_car_dated_benefit_year", "load_hmrc_company_car_statistics", ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/ledger_targets.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/ledger_targets.py index de581e033c..6bce3bf2f6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/ledger_targets.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/ledger_targets.py @@ -53,6 +53,9 @@ domestic_energy_appliers, ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.geography_ladder import UK_ENGLAND_WALES_REGION_CODES +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_company_car_statistics import ( + company_car_dated_benefit_year, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_uprating import hmrc_uprating_appliers from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_fact_vendoring import vendored_rows from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.local_target_census import family_for_metric @@ -1835,7 +1838,8 @@ def value_period(self, entity: str, variable: str) -> str | None: """The period a value variable holds without the engine (microcosm#1324). A stored column holds the frame's own period, and a CGT calibration - measure dated by its name (``cgt_2024_gains``) is computed at that + measure or a company car benefit dated by its name + (``cgt_2024_gains``, ``company_car_benefit_2024``) is computed at that year. Any other value comes from the engine at the run's calibration period, so it holds no period of its own: None. """ @@ -1843,6 +1847,8 @@ def value_period(self, entity: str, variable: str) -> str | None: if variable in self.stored_columns.get(entity, ()): return self.frame_period year = uk_cgt_dated_measure_year(variable) + if year is None: + year = company_car_dated_benefit_year(variable) return None if year is None else str(year) def column_at( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py index 53299a165f..6af604504b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py @@ -46,6 +46,9 @@ high_value_home_mask, uk_high_value_home_thresholds, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_company_car_statistics import ( + company_car_dated_benefit_year, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_income import UK_LOSS_RELIEF_TERMS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.income_tax_rate_classes import ( UK_RATE_CLASS_ALLOCATION, @@ -107,6 +110,9 @@ # Reserved, transient measurement names: using the model's input name here # would let a persisted base-period column bypass requested-year calculation. # Both the taxpayer mask and amount must use the same engine-year net gains. +#: The engine variable a dated company car benefit reads +#: (``company_car_benefit_2024``). +_COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT = "company_car_benefit" _CGT_CALIBRATION_VARIABLES = { "cgt_calibration_gains": "capital_gains", "cgt_calibration_tax": "capital_gains_tax", @@ -558,6 +564,15 @@ def compute_uk_measure_input( ) return values, f"engine_period:{measure_year}:{model_variable}:{route}" + benefit_year = company_car_dated_benefit_year(variable) + if benefit_year is not None: + if entity != "person": + raise KeyError(f"the dated company car benefit is person-only: {entity}") + values, route = compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, simulation, entity, _COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT, benefit_year + ) + return values, f"engine_period:{benefit_year}:{_COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT}:{route}" + if variable == _CGT_TAXABLE_INCOME: if entity != "person": raise KeyError(f"CGT taxable income is person-only: {entity}") @@ -1129,6 +1144,15 @@ def __init__( for target_id, target in self.contract_targets.items(): binding = target["bindings"]["policyengine"] for name in _binding_variable_names(binding): + # A company car benefit dated by its name is priced in that + # year, so it must be measured there, as a CGT measure is. + benefit_year = company_car_dated_benefit_year(name) + if benefit_year is not None and ( + int(binding.get("measurement_period", self.year)) != benefit_year + ): + raise ValueError( + f"company car benefit year/period mismatch: {target_id}" + ) cgt_measure = _cgt_model_measure(name, self.year) if cgt_measure is None: continue @@ -1250,6 +1274,8 @@ def knows(self, entity: str, variable: str) -> bool: cgt_measure = _cgt_model_measure(variable, self.year) if cgt_measure is not None: return entity == "person" and self.knows(entity, cgt_measure[0]) + if company_car_dated_benefit_year(variable) is not None: + return entity == "person" and self.knows(entity, _COMPANY_CAR_BENEFIT) if variable == _CGT_TAXABLE_INCOME: return entity == "person" and all( self.knows("person", name) for name in _CGT_TAXABLE_INCOME_COMPONENTS @@ -1294,6 +1320,8 @@ def entity_for(self, variable: str) -> str | None: return "person" if _cgt_model_measure(variable, self.year) is not None: return "person" + if company_car_dated_benefit_year(variable) is not None: + return "person" if variable in UK_NAMED_TERMS or variable in DFE_SPRING_TERM_MEASURES: return "person" if variable in UK_HOUSEHOLD_ENERGY_MEASURES: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py index 86af8dd57d..2a4e35325f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py @@ -5257,13 +5257,15 @@ def _company_cars_gate( it or set for an electric car, private fuel on an electric car, contributions above the list price, an electric range on a car outside 1 to 50 g/km, an SPI benefit above its EPB, a tape row's employee pension contribution above its - carved pay). It also fails when, on any tape row, pay plus the car and fuel - benefits the engine computes again on the stage's output misses the pay the - row brought in by more than ``maximum_pay_identity_error_gbp``: the carve-out - assumes how the engine prices a car, so an engine that prices it otherwise - fails here. How far holders, fuels, CO2 bands and list prices sit from HMRC's - tables after calibration is not a gate (María's ruling of 28 October 2026 on - the ISA facts), and comparing them is a manual step for now. + carved pay, a tape row's PAY below zero or its PAY + EPB moved by the benefits + a row without EPB moves between them). It also fails when, on any tape row, + pay plus the car and fuel benefits the engine computes again on the stage's + output misses the pay the row brought in by more than + ``maximum_pay_identity_error_gbp``: the carve-out assumes how the engine + prices a car, so an engine that prices it otherwise fails here. How far + the calibrated holders, taxable value and fuels sit from HMRC's tables is + the target-fit gate's, which binds them (María's ruling of 3 November + 2026); the CO2 bands and list prices are compared by hand. """ check = "company_cars" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/target_compile_modules.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/target_compile_modules.py index 911869d8fc..bb6b495cbe 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/target_compile_modules.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/target_compile_modules.py @@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release", "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.geography_ladder", "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.high_value_homes", + "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_company_car_statistics", "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.hmrc_uprating", "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_fact_vendoring", "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_surface", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py index 45128d3ac6..ad81cfc80d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py @@ -39,45 +39,70 @@ def _frame(): - """Five employees, one per household: two FRS company car holders (an - electric car, and a petrol car with private fuel), two holders on SPI tape - rows (EPB with room for the benefits, and EPB that is not), and no car.""" + """Six employees, one per household: two FRS company car holders (an + electric car, and a petrol car with private fuel), three holders on SPI tape + rows (EPB with room for the benefits, EPB that is not, and no EPB), and no + car.""" person = pd.DataFrame( { - "person_id": [11, 21, 31, 41, 51], - "person_benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], - "person_household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], - "age": [40.0] * 5, - "employment_income": [60_000.0, 45_000.0, 150_000.0, 70_000.0, 30_000.0], - "frs_company_car_price_band": [9, 7, 8, 8, 0], - "frs_company_car_fuel_code": [4, 1, 2, 1, 0], - "frs_company_car_private_fuel": [False, True, False, False, False], - "frs_company_car_contribution": [0.0, 1_000.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], - "person_support_channel": ["frs", "frs", "spi", "spi", "frs"], - "person_is_spi_income_recipient": [False, False, True, True, False], - "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits": [0.0, 0.0, 30_000.0, 1_500.0, 0.0], - "employee_pension_contributions": [3_000.0, 0.0, 9_000.0, 2_000.0, 0.0], - "employment_status": ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 5, - "self_employment_income": [0.0] * 5, - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": [False] * 5, + "person_id": [11, 21, 31, 41, 51, 61], + "person_benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], + "person_household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], + "age": [40.0] * 6, + "employment_income": [ + 60_000.0, + 45_000.0, + 150_000.0, + 70_000.0, + 30_000.0, + 50_000.0, + ], + "frs_company_car_price_band": [9, 7, 8, 8, 0, 8], + "frs_company_car_fuel_code": [4, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1], + "frs_company_car_private_fuel": [False, True, False, False, False, False], + "frs_company_car_contribution": [0.0, 1_000.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], + "person_support_channel": ["frs", "frs", "spi", "spi", "frs", "spi"], + "person_is_spi_income_recipient": [False, False, True, True, False, True], + # The tape's PAY and EPB on the tape rows (no TAXTERM); the FRS rows' + # PAY is their own pay. + "hmrc_spi_pay": [ + 60_000.0, + 45_000.0, + 120_000.0, + 68_500.0, + 30_000.0, + 50_000.0, + ], + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits": [0.0, 0.0, 30_000.0, 1_500.0, 0.0, 0.0], + "employee_pension_contributions": [ + 3_000.0, + 0.0, + 9_000.0, + 2_000.0, + 0.0, + 0.0, + ], + "employment_status": ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 6, + "self_employment_income": [0.0] * 6, + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment": [False] * 6, } ) household = pd.DataFrame( { - "household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], - "region": ["LONDON"] * 5, - "council_tax": [0.0] * 5, - "tenure_type": ["OWNED_OUTRIGHT"] * 5, - "rent": [0.0] * 5, - "household_source_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], + "household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], + "region": ["LONDON"] * 6, + "council_tax": [0.0] * 6, + "tenure_type": ["OWNED_OUTRIGHT"] * 6, + "rent": [0.0] * 6, + "household_source_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], } ) return uk_national_frame( person=person, - benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]}), + benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]}), household=household, - household_weights=np.ones(5), + household_weights=np.ones(6), weight_kind=WeightKind.DESIGN, time_period="2024", ) @@ -106,7 +131,7 @@ def test_the_engine_reads_the_stage_s_inputs(engine, run) -> None: values = engine.materialize(after, _VARIABLES, 2024) person = after.table("person") holder = person[stage.LIST_PRICE].to_numpy() > 0 - assert holder.tolist() == [True, True, True, True, False] + assert holder.tolist() == [True, True, True, True, False, True] assert person[stage.FUEL_TYPE].tolist()[:2] == [stage.ELECTRIC, stage.PETROL] # The electric car pays the zero-emission rate; the petrol car with private # fuel takes the fuel benefit too. @@ -130,16 +155,29 @@ def test_spi_pay_plus_the_engine_s_benefits_is_the_tape_s_total(engine, run) -> epb = before.table("person")["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"].to_numpy() # FRS-channel pay is untouched. np.testing.assert_array_equal(pay_after[[0, 1, 4]], pay_before[[0, 1, 4]]) - # A tape row's pay gives up the engine's benefits, which fit in EPB: the second - # tape row's car was scaled to EPB's GBP 1,500. The engine computes in single - # precision, so the identity holds to the penny, not to float64. + # A tape row's pay gives up the engine's benefits. The engine computes in + # single precision, so the identity holds to the penny, not to float64. np.testing.assert_allclose( - pay_after[[2, 3]] + values["benefits_in_kind"][[2, 3]], - pay_before[[2, 3]], + pay_after[[2, 3, 5]] + values["benefits_in_kind"][[2, 3, 5]], + pay_before[[2, 3, 5]], atol=0.01, ) - assert (values["benefits_in_kind"][[2, 3]] <= epb[[2, 3]] + 0.01).all() - assert values["benefits_in_kind"][3] == pytest.approx(1_500.0, abs=0.01) + # The first tape row's benefits fit in its EPB. The second's go above its + # EPB of GBP 1,500, and the rest moves from its PAY into its EPB; the third + # drew no EPB, so all of its benefits move. Each keeps its PAY + EPB. + spi_after = after.table("person") + epb_after = spi_after["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"].to_numpy() + spi_pay_after = spi_after["hmrc_spi_pay"].to_numpy() + assert values["benefits_in_kind"][2] <= epb[2] + 0.01 + assert epb_after[2] == pytest.approx(epb[2]) + for row in (3, 5): + assert values["benefits_in_kind"][row] > epb[row] + assert epb_after[row] == pytest.approx( + values["benefits_in_kind"][row], abs=0.01 + ) + np.testing.assert_allclose( + (spi_pay_after + epb_after)[[2, 3, 5]], [150_000.0, 70_000.0, 50_000.0] + ) # The stage priced its output again on the engine: within a penny. assert receipt["spi_carve_out"]["max_abs_pay_identity_error_gbp"] <= 0.01 @@ -160,7 +198,7 @@ def test_the_2030_rise_reaches_the_holders_alone(engine, run, tmp_path) -> None: tax = np.asarray(baseline.calculate("income_tax", year).values) tax_reformed = np.asarray(reformed.calculate("income_tax", year).values) holder = np.asarray(baseline.calculate("has_company_car", year).values) - assert holder.tolist() == [True, True, True, True, False] + assert holder.tolist() == [True, True, True, True, False, True] assert tax_reformed[~holder] == pytest.approx(tax[~holder]) if raised: assert (tax_reformed[holder] > tax[holder]).all() diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py index 2116d76cbb..4c042ff356 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars.py @@ -244,49 +244,6 @@ def test_unknown_fuels_meet_table_2c_together(spec, statistics) -> None: assert not (fuel[fueled] == stage.ELECTRIC).any() -def test_the_lost_cars_draw_their_fuel_at_the_holders_share(spec, statistics) -> None: - """The tape rows that lose their car for want of EPB draw fuel as the holders - do, at the holders' electric share, not at one their own private fuel sets - (item 2 of the third review, on its probe).""" - - holders = np.array([6] * 2_000) - fueled = np.zeros(len(holders), dtype=bool) - fueled[::4] = True - share = stage.unknown_fuel_electric_share( - holders, - private_fuel=fueled, - weights=np.ones(len(holders)), - statistics=statistics, - ) - assert share == pytest.approx(0.5 / 0.75) - lost = np.array([6] * 40_000) - ids = np.arange(len(lost)) + 1 - unfueled = np.zeros(len(lost), dtype=bool) - at_holders, _ = stage.assign_fuel_types( - lost, - ids, - private_fuel=unfueled, - weights=np.ones(len(lost)), - statistics=statistics, - spec=spec, - unfueled_electric=share, - ) - alone, _ = stage.assign_fuel_types( - lost, - ids, - private_fuel=unfueled, - weights=np.ones(len(lost)), - statistics=statistics, - spec=spec, - ) - assert (at_holders == stage.ELECTRIC).mean() == pytest.approx(share, abs=0.01) - assert (alone == stage.ELECTRIC).mean() == pytest.approx(0.5, abs=0.01) - # Petrol and diesel keep Table 2C's ratio between them either way. - for fuel in (at_holders, alone): - drawn = pd.Series(fuel[fuel != stage.ELECTRIC]).value_counts(normalize=True) - assert drawn[stage.PETROL] == pytest.approx(0.8, abs=0.02) - - def test_list_prices_stay_in_their_band(spec, donor) -> None: bands = np.repeat(np.arange(1, 11), 300) electric = np.tile([True, False], len(bands) // 2) @@ -402,7 +359,8 @@ def test_the_carve_out_fits_each_benefit_inside_epb_and_pay(spec) -> None: car = 0.25 * (price - np.minimum([0.0, 6_000.0, 0.0, 0.0], CAP)) carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( epb=np.array([20_000.0, 3_000.0, 500.0, 9_000.0]), - pay=np.array([90_000.0, 60_000.0, 40_000.0, 50_000.0]), + spi_pay=np.array([70_000.0, 1_000.0, 0.0, 0.0]), + pay=np.array([90_000.0, 4_000.0, 500.0, 9_000.0]), employee_contributions=np.zeros(4), list_price=price, contributions=np.array([0.0, 6_000.0, 0.0, 0.0]), @@ -414,19 +372,21 @@ def test_the_carve_out_fits_each_benefit_inside_epb_and_pay(spec) -> None: ) # 1: car 10,000 plus fuel 7,000 fit inside 20,000. assert carve.keep[0] and carve.benefit[0] == pytest.approx(17_000.0) - # 2: car 8,750 above EPB 3,000: the price scales to 12,000 with no contribution. - assert carve.keep[1] and carve.benefit[1] == pytest.approx(3_000.0) - assert carve.list_price[1] == pytest.approx(12_000.0) + # 2: car 8,750 above EPB 3,000 and PAY 1,000: the price scales to 16,000 with + # no contribution. + assert carve.keep[1] and carve.benefit[1] == pytest.approx(4_000.0) + assert carve.list_price[1] == pytest.approx(16_000.0) assert carve.contributions[1] == 0.0 - # 3: EPB 500 would need a GBP 2,000 car, below the minimum price: dropped. + # 3: EPB 500 and no PAY would need a GBP 2,000 car, below the minimum price: + # dropped. assert not carve.keep[2] and carve.benefit[2] == 0.0 - # 4: car 7,500 and fuel 7,000 do not fit inside EPB 9,000 together, so the - # fuel goes first and the car fits whole. + # 4: car 7,500 and fuel 7,000 do not fit inside EPB 9,000 and no PAY together, + # so the fuel goes first and the car fits whole. assert carve.keep[3] and not carve.private_fuel[3] assert carve.benefit[3] == pytest.approx(7_500.0) assert carve.list_price[3] == pytest.approx(30_000.0) assert carve.scaled.tolist() == [False, True, False, False] - assert (carve.benefit <= np.array([20_000.0, 3_000.0, 500.0, 9_000.0])).all() + assert (carve.benefit <= np.array([90_000.0, 4_000.0, 500.0, 9_000.0])).all() def test_private_fuel_goes_first_when_car_and_fuel_do_not_fit_together(spec) -> None: @@ -435,7 +395,8 @@ def test_private_fuel_goes_first_when_car_and_fuel_do_not_fit_together(spec) -> carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( epb=np.array([6_000.0, 9_000.0]), - pay=np.array([40_000.0, 40_000.0]), + spi_pay=np.zeros(2), + pay=np.array([6_000.0, 9_000.0]), employee_contributions=np.zeros(2), list_price=np.array([40_000.0, 35_000.0]), contributions=np.zeros(2), @@ -448,14 +409,19 @@ def test_private_fuel_goes_first_when_car_and_fuel_do_not_fit_together(spec) -> assert carve.keep.all() and not carve.private_fuel.any() assert carve.benefit[0] == pytest.approx(4_000.0) # The review's case: a 29% car on GBP 35,000 (10,150) with GBP 8,062 of fuel - # in EPB 9,000. The fuel goes, and the car scales to GBP 31,034. + # in EPB 9,000 with no PAY. The fuel goes, and the car scales to GBP 31,034. assert carve.list_price[1] == pytest.approx(9_000.0 / 0.29) assert carve.benefit[1] == pytest.approx(9_000.0) -def test_the_cap_is_epb_within_the_pay(spec) -> None: +def test_the_cap_is_epb_and_pay_within_the_pay(spec) -> None: + """EPB + PAY cap a car's benefits, EPB first: a car above EPB takes the rest + from PAY (María's rulings of 3 November 2026, the second on Vahid's review of + microcosm#1491); one above both scales.""" + carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( - epb=np.array([9_000.0, 9_000.0]), + epb=np.array([9_000.0, 2_000.0]), + spi_pay=np.array([31_000.0, 2_000.0]), pay=np.array([40_000.0, 4_000.0]), employee_contributions=np.zeros(2), list_price=np.array([40_000.0, 40_000.0]), @@ -466,9 +432,35 @@ def test_the_cap_is_epb_within_the_pay(spec) -> None: contribution_cap=CAP, spec=spec, ) - assert carve.benefit.tolist() == pytest.approx([9_000.0, 4_000.0]) - assert carve.scaled.all() - assert carve.list_price.tolist() == pytest.approx([36_000.0, 16_000.0]) + assert carve.benefit.tolist() == pytest.approx([10_000.0, 4_000.0]) + assert carve.scaled.tolist() == [False, True] + assert carve.list_price.tolist() == pytest.approx([40_000.0, 16_000.0]) + assert carve.receipt["kept_with_epb_topped_up_from_pay"] == stage.rounded_count(2) + + +def test_a_small_epb_caps_a_car_no_more_than_none(spec) -> None: + """The review's probe on three rows that differ only in their drawn EPB: + each keeps its GBP 40,000 car, where a cap of EPB alone dropped the car on + EPB of GBP 100 and scaled it to GBP 8,000 on GBP 2,000 (Vahid's review of + microcosm#1491, item 5).""" + + epb = np.array([0.0, 100.0, 2_000.0]) + carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( + epb=epb, + spi_pay=50_000.0 - epb, + pay=np.full(3, 50_000.0), + employee_contributions=np.zeros(3), + list_price=np.full(3, 40_000.0), + contributions=np.zeros(3), + private_fuel=np.zeros(3, dtype=bool), + car_benefit=np.full(3, 10_000.0), + fuel_benefit=np.zeros(3), + contribution_cap=CAP, + spec=spec, + ) + assert carve.keep.all() and not carve.scaled.any() + assert carve.benefit.tolist() == pytest.approx([10_000.0] * 3) + assert carve.list_price.tolist() == pytest.approx([40_000.0] * 3) def test_the_cap_leaves_the_pay_an_employee_contribution_needs(spec) -> None: @@ -481,6 +473,7 @@ def test_the_cap_leaves_the_pay_an_employee_contribution_needs(spec) -> None: employee = np.array([150.0, 20_000.0, 2_000.0]) carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( epb=epb, + spi_pay=np.maximum(pay - epb, 0.0), pay=pay, employee_contributions=employee, list_price=np.array([40_000.0, 40_000.0, 40_000.0]), @@ -496,23 +489,60 @@ def test_the_cap_leaves_the_pay_an_employee_contribution_needs(spec) -> None: assert carve.list_price[0] == pytest.approx(2_850.0 / 0.25) # The contribution takes all the pay: no room, so the car is dropped. assert not carve.keep[1] and carve.benefit[1] == 0.0 - # Room to spare: EPB caps as before. - assert carve.benefit[2] == pytest.approx(9_000.0) + # Room to spare: EPB and PAY hold the whole car. + assert carve.benefit[2] == pytest.approx(10_000.0) assert (pay - carve.benefit >= employee - 1e-9).all() - assert carve.receipt["cap_below_epb_for_the_employee_contribution"] == ( - stage.rounded_count(2) + assert carve.receipt["cap_below_epb_and_pay_for_the_employee_contribution"] == ( + stage.rounded_count(3) ) - # What the room costs beside a cap of EPB within pay alone (item 3 of the - # third review): the first car would scale to GBP 12,000, not 11,400; the - # second would keep a GBP 24,000 car; the third is untouched. + # What the room costs beside a cap of EPB + PAY within pay alone (item 3 of + # the third review): the first car would scale to GBP 12,000, not 11,400; the + # second would keep its GBP 40,000 car; the third is untouched. assert carve.receipt["cars_the_employee_contribution_scales_or_drops"] == ( stage.rounded_count(2) ) np.testing.assert_allclose( - carve.list_price_given_up_for_the_contribution, [600.0, 24_000.0, 0.0] + carve.list_price_given_up_for_the_contribution, [600.0, 40_000.0, 0.0] ) +def test_a_row_without_epb_is_capped_at_its_pay(spec) -> None: + """A tape row whose drawn EPB is zero keeps its twin's car, capped at its + PAY within the pay its employee contribution leaves, since the benefits move + from its PAY into its EPB (María's ruling of 3 November 2026).""" + + spi_pay = np.array([40_000.0, 4_000.0, 0.0, 30_000.0]) + carve = stage.carve_spi_benefits( + epb=np.zeros(4), + spi_pay=spi_pay, + pay=np.array([40_000.0, 4_500.0, 0.0, 30_000.0]), + employee_contributions=np.array([0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 28_000.0]), + list_price=np.full(4, 40_000.0), + contributions=np.zeros(4), + private_fuel=np.zeros(4, dtype=bool), + car_benefit=np.full(4, 10_000.0), + fuel_benefit=np.zeros(4), + contribution_cap=CAP, + spec=spec, + ) + # PAY holds the whole car. + assert carve.keep[0] and carve.benefit[0] == pytest.approx(10_000.0) + assert not carve.scaled[0] + # PAY 4,000 caps the car though termination pay lifts the pay to 4,500. + assert carve.benefit[1] == pytest.approx(4_000.0) + assert carve.list_price[1] == pytest.approx(16_000.0) + # No pay, no car. + assert not carve.keep[2] and carve.benefit[2] == 0.0 + # The contribution leaves GBP 2,000: a GBP 8,000 car. + assert carve.keep[3] and carve.benefit[3] == pytest.approx(2_000.0) + assert (carve.benefit <= spi_pay).all() + assert carve.receipt["holders_without_epb"] == stage.rounded_count(4) + assert carve.receipt["kept_without_epb"] == stage.rounded_count(3) + # The second row's car takes all of its PAY (the review of microcosm#1491, + # item 6): its cash pay is its termination pay alone. + assert carve.receipt["kept_leaving_no_pay"] == stage.rounded_count(1) + + class _UKEngine: country = "uk" @@ -586,6 +616,12 @@ def _stage_frame(seed: int = 1, households: int = 600, order=None, sources=None) extra = np.random.default_rng(seed + 7) pay = person["employment_income"].to_numpy(float) tape_rows = person[SPI_INCOME_RECIPIENT_COLUMN].to_numpy(bool) + # The tape's PAY: the pay less EPB (the synthetic tape has no TAXTERM). + person["hmrc_spi_pay"] = np.where( + tape_rows, + np.maximum(pay - person["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"].to_numpy(float), 0.0), + 0.0, + ) u = extra.random(len(person)) person["employee_pension_contributions"] = np.where( tape_rows & (u < 0.1), pay, np.where(u < 0.5, 1_500.0, 0.0) @@ -644,8 +680,10 @@ def test_the_whole_stage_writes_its_columns_and_carves_spi_pay(statistics) -> No pd.testing.assert_series_equal( after.loc[~tape, "employment_income"], before.loc[~tape, "employment_income"] ) - # A tape row's holder needs EPB, and its pay plus its benefits is the tape's. - assert not (holder & tape & (before["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] <= 0)).any() + # A tape row keeps its car whether or not it drew EPB, and its pay plus its + # benefits is the tape's. + without_epb = tape & (before["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] <= 0) + assert (holder & without_epb).any() car, fuel = _benefits(result) benefit = pd.Series(car + fuel, index=after.index) gap = ( @@ -654,9 +692,23 @@ def test_the_whole_stage_writes_its_columns_and_carves_spi_pay(statistics) -> No - before.loc[tape, "employment_income"] ) assert gap.abs().max() < 1e-6 - assert ( - benefit[tape] <= before.loc[tape, "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] + 1e-6 - ).all() + # EPB holds a car's benefits first, the part above it moves from PAY into + # EPB, and every tape row keeps its PAY + EPB. + epb_before = before["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] + moved = (benefit - epb_before).clip(lower=0.0).where(tape, 0.0) + assert (moved[tape & ~without_epb] > 0).any() + epb_after = after["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] + pay_after = after["hmrc_spi_pay"] + np.testing.assert_allclose(epb_after[tape], (epb_before + moved)[tape], atol=1e-6) + np.testing.assert_allclose( + pay_after[tape], (before["hmrc_spi_pay"] - moved)[tape], atol=1e-6 + ) + assert (pay_after[tape] >= 0).all() + untouched = ~(moved > 1e-6) + for column in ("hmrc_spi_pay", "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"): + pd.testing.assert_series_equal( + after.loc[untouched, column], before.loc[untouched, column] + ) # The carved pay keeps every net-pay contribution, including the tape rows # that contribute all of it, and a carved row's UC gainful self-employment # follows its carved pay; every other row keeps its flag. @@ -705,12 +757,13 @@ def test_the_whole_stage_writes_its_columns_and_carves_spi_pay(statistics) -> No ) -def test_the_receipt_measures_what_the_epb_draw_and_the_carve_out_remove( +def test_the_receipt_measures_the_cars_kept_without_epb_and_the_carve_out( statistics, ) -> None: - """The holders the tape rows lose for want of EPB, the list price the - carve-out scales away, and the CO2 shares of the cars the output holds - (items 3 to 5 of the review).""" + """The holders the tape rows keep on a drawn EPB of zero, the benefits that + move from their PAY into their EPB, the list price the carve-out scales + away, and the CO2 shares of the cars the output holds (items 3 to 5 of the + review).""" frame = _stage_frame() before = frame.table("person").set_index("person_id") @@ -719,16 +772,21 @@ def test_the_receipt_measures_what_the_epb_draw_and_the_carve_out_remove( after = result.table("person").set_index("person_id") receipt = transform.checkpoint_metadata()["evidence"] weights = _person_weights(result) - no_epb = ( + kept_without_epb = ( before[SPI_INCOME_RECIPIENT_COLUMN].astype(bool) - & (before["frs_company_car_price_band"] > 0) + & (after[stage.LIST_PRICE] > 0) & (before["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] <= 0) ) - dropped = receipt["holders"]["spi_dropped_without_epb"] - assert dropped["weighted"] == pytest.approx( - float(weights.loc[no_epb[no_epb].index].sum()) + kept = receipt["holders"]["spi_channel_tape_without_epb"] + assert kept["weighted"] == pytest.approx( + float(weights.loc[kept_without_epb[kept_without_epb].index].sum()) + ) + moved = ( + after["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] - before["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"] + ) + assert receipt["spi_carve_out"]["weighted_pay_moved_into_epb_gbp"] == ( + pytest.approx(float((moved * weights.loc[moved.index]).sum())) ) - assert dropped["weighted_list_price_gbp"] > 0 assert receipt["spi_carve_out"]["weighted_list_price_scaled_away_gbp"] >= 0 held = after[stage.LIST_PRICE] > 0 emits = held & (after[stage.FUEL_TYPE] != stage.ELECTRIC) @@ -755,12 +813,13 @@ def test_an_engine_that_prices_a_car_otherwise_misses_the_identity( ) -> None: """The second pricing reads the engine, not the carve-out's own sum: an engine whose car benefit ignores the list price leaves a scaled car's - benefit above what came out of pay.""" + benefit above what came out of pay. Its flat benefit is above any row's pay, + so every tape row's car is scaled.""" def flat(frame): car, fuel = _benefits(frame) price = frame.table("person")[stage.LIST_PRICE].to_numpy(float) - return np.where(price > 0, 9_000.0, 0.0), fuel + return np.where(price > 0, 200_000.0, 0.0), fuel transform = dataclasses.replace(_transform(statistics), benefits=flat) transform(_stage_frame()) @@ -793,8 +852,8 @@ def test_receipt_figures_on_too_few_source_households_are_withheld( "weighted_list_price_dropped_gbp", ): assert carve[name] in withheld | {0.0} - dropped = receipt["holders"]["spi_dropped_without_epb"] - assert {dropped["weighted"], dropped["weighted_list_price_gbp"]} <= withheld + assert receipt["holders"]["spi_channel_tape_without_epb"]["weighted"] in withheld + assert carve["weighted_pay_moved_into_epb_gbp"] in withheld for name in ("hybrid_rate_into_1_50", "weighted_share_1_50"): assert receipt["co2"]["drawn"][name] in withheld assert set(receipt["co2"]["output"].values()) <= withheld @@ -835,6 +894,8 @@ def test_each_invariant_counts_the_rows_that_break_it() -> None: carved=np.zeros(9), pay=np.full(9, 30e3), employee_contributions=np.zeros(9), + spi_pay=np.zeros(9), + spi_pay_and_epb_change=np.zeros(9), ) assert violations == { "non_finite_values": 0, @@ -849,6 +910,8 @@ def test_each_invariant_counts_the_rows_that_break_it() -> None: "electric_range_outside_1_to_50_g_km": 1, "spi_benefit_above_epb": 0, "employee_contribution_above_carved_pay": 0, + "spi_pay_below_zero": 0, + "spi_pay_and_epb_moved": 0, } # A tape row whose carved pay falls below its net-pay contribution, beside # one that keeps it exactly; off the tape the stage leaves pay alone. @@ -861,8 +924,25 @@ def test_each_invariant_counts_the_rows_that_break_it() -> None: carved=np.where(tape, 3_000.0, 0.0), pay=np.array([0.0, 150.0, 0.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]), employee_contributions=np.array([150.0, 150.0, 900.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]), + spi_pay=np.zeros(9), + spi_pay_and_epb_change=np.zeros(9), ) assert violations["employee_contribution_above_carved_pay"] == 1 + # A tape row whose PAY fell below zero, and one whose PAY + EPB is not a + # number; off the tape neither counts. + violations = stage._violations( + columns, + holders=holders, + tape=tape, + epb=np.full(9, 3_000.0), + carved=np.zeros(9), + pay=np.full(9, 30e3), + employee_contributions=np.zeros(9), + spi_pay=np.array([-1.0, 0.0, -1.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]), + spi_pay_and_epb_change=np.array([0.0, np.nan, 5.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]), + ) + assert violations["spi_pay_below_zero"] == 1 + assert violations["spi_pay_and_epb_moved"] == 1 def test_a_carved_row_s_uc_gainful_self_employment_follows_its_carved_pay() -> None: @@ -1026,6 +1106,10 @@ def test_salary_sacrifice_runs_on_the_stage_s_output( salary_sacrifice.BONUS_SACRIFICE_SOURCE: 0.0, } ) + # The tape's PAY on the two tape rows (no TAXTERM); the FRS rows' own. + person["hmrc_spi_pay"] = np.where( + spi, pay - person["hmrc_spi_employment_benefits"].to_numpy(float), pay + ) household = pd.DataFrame( { "household_id": ids, @@ -1088,7 +1172,7 @@ def test_the_receipt_carries_no_unrounded_counts(statistics) -> None: holders["frs_channel"], holders["spi_channel_tape"], holders["spi_channel_twin_pay"], - holders["spi_dropped_without_epb"]["count"], + holders["spi_channel_tape_without_epb"]["count"], receipt["fuel"]["drawn_with_private_fuel"], ): assert isinstance(value, str) or value == 0 or value % 10 == 0 or value < 0 diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars_stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars_stage_health.py index 9cf63a548b..5b5b44eaf7 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars_stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_company_cars_stage_health.py @@ -16,11 +16,7 @@ "frs_channel": 1200, "spi_channel_tape": 300, "spi_channel_twin_pay": 20, - "spi_dropped_without_epb": { - "count": 40, - "weighted": 30_000.0, - "weighted_list_price_gbp": 1.2e9, - }, + "spi_channel_tape_without_epb": {"count": 40, "weighted": 30_000.0}, "weighted": 900_000.0, }, "spi_carve_out": {"holders": 300, "max_abs_pay_identity_error_gbp": 0.01}, @@ -37,6 +33,9 @@ "contributions_above_list_price": 0, "electric_range_outside_1_to_50_g_km": 0, "spi_benefit_above_epb": 0, + "employee_contribution_above_carved_pay": 0, + "spi_pay_below_zero": 0, + "spi_pay_and_epb_moved": 0, }, "frs_holders_without_pay": rounded_count(5), }, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measure_simulation.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measure_simulation.py index 80ffff4780..83389a52bd 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measure_simulation.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measure_simulation.py @@ -305,6 +305,37 @@ def test_resolver_rejects_amount_threshold_year_mismatch( ) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("measurement_period", [None, 2023, 2025]) +def test_resolver_rejects_a_dated_company_car_benefit_at_another_year( + monkeypatch, tmp_path, measurement_period +): + """A company car benefit dated 2024 is priced at 2024-25's percentages, so a + binding that measures it at any other period, or at none, is refused, as a + dated CGT measure is (the review of microcosm#1491, item 7).""" + + binding = {"value_variable": "company_car_benefit_2024"} + if measurement_period is not None: + binding["measurement_period"] = measurement_period + monkeypatch.setattr( + measure_simulation, + "_policyengine_uk_module", + lambda: SimpleNamespace(__version__="test"), + ) + monkeypatch.setattr( + measure_simulation, + "_uk_contract_targets", + lambda: {"cars": {"bindings": {"policyengine": binding}}}, + ) + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="company car benefit year/period mismatch"): + UKMeasureResolver( + simulation_source=tmp_path / "input.h5", + scratch_dir=tmp_path, + frame=FrameStub(), + year=2025, + microsimulation_factory=lambda **_: SimulationStub({}), + ) + + def test_dated_cgt_measure_uses_disposal_year_with_later_calibration_year(): sim = SimulationStub( {"capital_gains": ("person", np.array([3000.0, 5000.0, 20000.0]))} @@ -317,6 +348,32 @@ def test_dated_cgt_measure_uses_disposal_year_with_later_calibration_year(): assert (values > 3000).tolist() == [False, True, True] +def test_dated_company_car_benefit_is_priced_in_its_own_tax_year( + monkeypatch, tmp_path: Path +): + """HMRC's Table 1 taxable value is 2024-25's, so the national row reads the + engine's company car benefit in 2024, whatever the calibration year + (microcosm#1418).""" + + sim = SimulationStub( + {"company_car_benefit": ("person", np.array([0.0, 900.0, 3_000.0]))} + ) + values, route = compute_uk_measure_input( + FrameStub(), sim, "person", "company_car_benefit_2024", 2025 + ) + assert sim.calls == [("company_car_benefit", 2024, None)] + assert route == "engine_period:2024:company_car_benefit:native" + assert values.tolist() == [0.0, 900.0, 3_000.0] + with pytest.raises(KeyError, match="person-only"): + compute_uk_measure_input( + FrameStub(), sim, "household", "company_car_benefit_2024", 2025 + ) + resolver = _resolver_over(sim, monkeypatch, tmp_path) + assert resolver.knows("person", "company_car_benefit_2024") + assert not resolver.knows("household", "company_car_benefit_2024") + assert resolver.entity_for("company_car_benefit_2024") == "person" + + @pytest.mark.parametrize("precomputed", [False, True]) def test_dated_cgt_binding_gates_at_observation_year_and_refuses_stale_fact( precomputed, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measurement_period.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measurement_period.py index 63cc6282dd..b3f6ff3309 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measurement_period.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_measurement_period.py @@ -252,6 +252,8 @@ def test_a_cgt_measure_dated_by_its_name_holds_its_own_year(): assert adapter.value_period("person", "employment_income") == "2024" assert adapter.value_period("person", "cgt_2024_tax") == "2024" assert adapter.value_period("person", "cgt_2025_gains") == "2025" + assert adapter.value_period("person", "company_car_benefit_2024") == "2024" + assert adapter.value_period("person", "company_car_benefit") is None assert adapter.value_period("person", "income_tax") is None # The guard lets the dated measure through: the provider computes it at @@ -471,6 +473,11 @@ def test_a_frame_without_a_period_label_keeps_the_frame_route(): "council_tax_band", # Engine-computed from the household's adults (pe-uk#1864; microcosm#953). "council_tax_discount_rate", + # The company car rows (microcosm#1418): the stored list price as a sign + # filter, which keeps its sign at any period, and the stored fuel type, + # which nothing uprates. + "company_car_fuel_type", + "company_car_list_price", "country", "dfe_age_at_31_december", "dfe_spring_early_learning_2", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_population_targets.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_population_targets.py index e22948d7db..a8c30c8026 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_population_targets.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_population_targets.py @@ -266,10 +266,12 @@ def test_uk_population_targets_shape_order_and_registry_accounting() -> None: # amounts by self-employment band and the counts with employment income # among them, and DWP's income-based Jobseeker's Allowance spending; # microcosm#1095 R4 splits SLC's devolved repayments into one row per - # nation, three rows for one; microcosm#1426 adds HMRC's Table 16 count of - # taxpayers liable to the High Income Child Benefit Charge and its revenue, - # two national rows held as measured diagnostics. - assert len(resource["targets"]) == 462 + # nation, three rows for one; microcosm#1418 binds HMRC's 2024-25 company + # cars, five national rows: Table 1's recipients and taxable value and + # Table 2C's recipients by fuel; microcosm#1426 adds HMRC's Table 16 count + # of taxpayers liable to the High Income Child Benefit Charge and its + # revenue, two national rows held as measured diagnostics. + assert len(resource["targets"]) == 467 providers = resource["hierarchy"]["providers"] categories = resource["hierarchy"]["categories"] @@ -283,10 +285,10 @@ def test_uk_population_targets_shape_order_and_registry_accounting() -> None: target_ids = [target["target_id"] for target in resource["targets"]] registry_scope = resource["registry_parity"]["scope_target_ids"] profile_scope = resource["profile_parity"]["scope_target_ids"] - assert len(registry_scope) == 400 + assert len(registry_scope) == 405 assert len(profile_scope) == 62 - assert target_ids[:400] == registry_scope - assert target_ids[400:] == profile_scope + assert target_ids[:405] == registry_scope + assert target_ids[405:] == profile_scope parity = resource["registry_parity"] assert parity["pinned_ref"] == "12a1e028afeef08d8b2d74ee03fd9de3a78b2dd3" @@ -313,12 +315,13 @@ def test_uk_population_targets_shape_order_and_registry_accounting() -> None: # OBR excise rows have no uk-data metric (uk-data never measured excise # duty), nor microcosm#1069's two Income Tax payer by age rows, nor # microcosm#1418's three Income Tax on savings rows, its SPI other income - # row or its three Table 3.10 rows, nor microcosm#1428's income-based JSA - # spending row. microcosm#1095 R4 maps the incumbent's three devolved SLC + # row or its three Table 3.10 rows, nor its five company car rows, nor + # microcosm#1428's income-based JSA spending row. microcosm#1095 R4 maps + # the incumbent's three devolved SLC # repayment metrics one to one, to three nation rows in place of one # devolved row. microcosm#1426's two HICBC rows have no uk-data metric either. assert len(mapped_target_ids) == 185 - assert len(unmapped_declarations) == 215 + assert len(unmapped_declarations) == 220 suppressed_ancestors = parity["suppressed_ancestors"] assert len(suppressed_ancestors) == 5 assert set(suppressed_ancestors).isdisjoint(parity["mapped"]) @@ -830,7 +833,7 @@ def test_uk_population_targets_have_unique_target_ids() -> None: resource = _load() target_ids = [target["target_id"] for target in resource["targets"]] - assert len(target_ids) == 462 + assert len(target_ids) == 467 assert len(target_ids) == len(set(target_ids)) @@ -1333,7 +1336,7 @@ def test_uc_payment_bands_share_administrative_family_but_keep_source_window() - def test_paid_joint_diagnostics_do_not_add_active_targets() -> None: targets = _load()["targets"] - assert len(targets) == 462 + assert len(targets) == 467 assert not any( f.get("variable") == "uc_calibration_child_entitlement" for target in targets diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_target_references.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_target_references.py index 4208d35803..0092500654 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_target_references.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_target_references.py @@ -76,6 +76,8 @@ # The one pin of the national active reference count: the country spec and # national calibration tests read it from the committed membership, or not at # all, so a change to the target set moves this pin alone. How it is made up: +# microcosm#1418's company car base: + 5, HMRC's 2024-25 company car +# recipients and taxable value (Table 1) and recipients by fuel (Table 2C); # microcosm#1418 PR C: + 13, SPI Table 3.7's other income by band, and + 16, # SPI Table 3.10's self-employment bands from GBP 1 to GBP 10,000; its # savings follow-up (microcosm#1428): + 8, Table 3.10's individuals with @@ -127,9 +129,10 @@ # after the compile, less the North East and Wales rows over £2m, signed out # below the small-cell floor; microcosm#1095 (#1422): the three OBR council # tax nation rows, pinned to the UK, and SLC's three nation repayment rows in -# place of the devolved total; microcosm#1426: HMRC's two High Income Child Benefit -# Charge rows, measured diagnostics -ACTIVE_REFERENCE_COUNT = 1420 +# place of the devolved total; microcosm#1418: HMRC's five 2024-25 company +# car rows; microcosm#1426: HMRC's two High Income Child Benefit Charge rows, +# measured diagnostics +ACTIVE_REFERENCE_COUNT = 1425 REGION_TIER_LEVEL = {code: level for level, code in UK_REGION_TIER} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_terminal_gates.py index c0ab784e99..42ecb0ce97 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_terminal_gates.py @@ -668,13 +668,16 @@ def test_committed_target_fit_register_retains_only_live_deferrals() -> None: # to +23.4 % across the C3 and final arms, inside the bound, and the gate # fails the deferral as stale. assert set(register) == { + "hmrc.spi.employment_income.count_by_self_employment_income_band.band_1000_2000@2025", "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_15000@2025", - "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_20000@2025", - "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_30000@2025", + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025", "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025", "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_30_000_to_40_000@2025", "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_40_000_to_50_000@2025", + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025", "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_12_570_to_15_000@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025", + "hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025", "hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000@2025", } assert {record.release_lines for record in register.values()} == {("local",)} @@ -700,11 +703,10 @@ def test_committed_local_target_fit_register_is_empty_and_well_formed() -> None: assert "%" not in record.reason, key assert uk_default_local_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions() is register assert set(register) == { - "age_structure/E06000018/age/20_30", + "age_structure/E06000023/age/20_30", "age_structure/E07000008/age/20_30", "age_structure/E07000178/age/20_30", - "age_structure/E14001080/age/20_30", - "age_structure/E14001081/age/20_30", + "age_structure/E08000003/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001096/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001131/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001149/age/20_30", @@ -718,25 +720,24 @@ def test_committed_local_target_fit_register_is_empty_and_well_formed() -> None: "age_structure/E14001353/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001410/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001412/age/20_30", - "age_structure/E14001420/age/20_30", "age_structure/E14001467/age/20_30", - "age_structure/S12000013/age/20_30", - "age_structure/S12000013/age/60_70", - "age_structure/S14000027/age/60_70", "age_structure/W07000091/age/20_30", "council_tax/E06000014/council_tax/band_a", + "council_tax/E07000178/council_tax/band_e", + "council_tax/E08000028/council_tax/band_f", "council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_b", - "council_tax/E09000020/council_tax/band_g", - "council_tax/E09000030/council_tax/band_f", - "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_b", - "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_f", + "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_c", "council_tax/E09000033/council_tax/band_g", "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_a", + "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_b", "council_tax/S12000013/council_tax/band_f", - "council_tax/S12000035/council_tax/band_b", - "council_tax/W06000018/council_tax/band_h", - "tenure/E09000033/tenure/owned_mortgage", - "uc_households/E14001098/uc_hh_3plus_children", + "domestic_energy/S12000023/energy/electricity_kwh", + "domestic_energy/S14000051/energy/electricity_kwh", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E09000020/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001172/hmrc/employment_income/amount", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001268/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001310/hmrc/self_employment_income/amount", + "hmrc_income_by_area/E14001535/hmrc/higher_rate_taxpayers/count", } assert {record.release_lines for record in register.values()} == {("local",)} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index e733870f98..ee58aa9809 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -654,9 +654,11 @@ "company_car_co2_emissions", "company_car_electric_range", "company_car_capital_contributions", - "employment_income" + "employment_income", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], - "notes": "Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0's company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows' pay without the car benefits, as the engine's employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine's carriers record; a tape row of the SPI channel (person_is_spi_income_recipient) keeps its twin's only where its drawn EPB is positive, and the channel's other rows, which keep their twin's pay, keep its car. Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C's shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others' electric share raised to keep Table 2C's at the stage's weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent's CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars' prices grown by the engine's CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A's shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine's defaults, which no survey records. A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine's car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains): where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (Mar\u00eda's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row's UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root's rule again on the carved pay. No HMRC fact is a calibration target: binding the cells the stage draws to would be circular. No build step reads Tables 1, 3A and 4 after calibration yet: comparing the calibrated file with them is a manual step.", + "notes": "Writes six of policyengine-uk 2.165.0's company car inputs (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#316) right after the SPI income stage, so every later stage reads the tape rows' pay without the car benefits, as the engine's employment_income excludes them, and salary_sacrifice bounds its sacrifice on that pay (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 31 October 2026). An FRS-channel person keeps the company car frs_spine's carriers record, and every row of the SPI channel keeps its twin's: the tape rows (person_is_spi_income_recipient), whatever EPB they drew, since the car never conditions it, and the channel's other rows, which keep their twin's pay (Mar\u00eda's rulings of 3 November 2026). Fuel maps from the FRS code (a hybrid is an alternative fuel; a diesel meets RDE2, which every new diesel has since January 2021), and the unknown fuels draw at Table 2C's shares together: without electricity where the respondent reports private fuel, and with the others' electric share raised to keep Table 2C's at the stage's weights. The list price is drawn within the respondent's CARVAL band from WAS round-8 company cars' prices grown by the engine's CPI index from 2021, the open and unknown bands by fuel class, uniformly from no lower than minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp where a band has fewer than minimum_donor_households WAS households. CO2 is zero for an electric car; the others split between 1 to 50 g/km (hybrids first) and the bands above at Table 2A's shares among cars that emit CO2, uniformly within each band, and a car at 1 to 50 g/km takes electric_range_miles. Availability, payments for private use and the 2020 registration flag keep the engine's defaults, which no survey records. A tape row's pay is the tape's PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, so the engine's car and fuel benefits come out of employment_income, capped at EPB + PAY within the pay the row's employee pension contribution leaves (the SPI income stage capped that contribution at the drawn pay, and salary_sacrifice refuses one above the pay that remains; cap epb_then_pay): EPB holds them first, and the part above EPB moves from the row's hmrc_spi_pay into its hmrc_spi_employment_benefits so its PAY + EPB + TAXTERM stays the tape's (a cap of EPB alone dropped or shrank cars on rows that drew a little EPB, Vahid's review of microcosm#1491); where the two do not fit together the fuel goes first, then the list price is scaled down to fit with its contributions dropped, or the car dropped below minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp (Mar\u00eda's rulings of 30 and 31 October 2026). A scaled price is the room over the car's appropriate percentage, so the CO2 draw, electric_range_miles and the RDE2 diesel set it, and with it the base the 2030-31 rise acts on. The stage then prices its output again on the engine: on every tape row, pay plus the benefits must equal the pay the row brought in. A carved row's UC gainful self-employment, which the SPI income stage set on the drawn pay, takes the root's rule again on the carved pay. The national calibration binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value, the value measured at 2024-25 rates, and Table 2C's recipients by fuel (uk_population_targets.json, Mar\u00eda's ruling of 3 November 2026); the vendored facts only seed the draws, and comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step.", "operations": [ { "artifact_role": "benefits_in_kind_facts", @@ -787,14 +789,18 @@ "company_car_benefit", "car_fuel_benefit" ], + "cap": "epb_then_pay", "epb_column": "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", "kind": "carve_spi_company_car_benefits", "minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp": 5000, "outputs": [ "employment_income", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" - ] + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" + ], + "pay_column": "hmrc_spi_pay" }, { "declared_factor": 1, @@ -805,8 +811,9 @@ }, { "adjudication": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026/issues/316", + "calibrated_facts": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026), 2024-25: Table 1's car recipients and car taxable value (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_recipients, hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_taxable_value) and Table 2C's recipients by fuel (hmrc.benefits_in_kind.company_car_fuel.*) in uk_population_targets.json, Mar\u00eda's ruling of 3 November 2026 (microcosm#1418).", "calibration_permitted": false, - "classification_rationale": "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C, so binding them in the weight solve would be circular. Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 1, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build.", + "classification_rationale": "The stage draws fuel and CO2 to Tables 2A and 2C from this resource, which the weight solve never reads. The national calibration binds Table 1's car recipients and taxable value and Table 2C's recipients by fuel from the Chronicle feed instead (calibrated_facts). Comparing the calibrated file with Tables 2A, 3A and 4 is a manual step for now; none blocks a build.", "fact_fence_id": "company_car_facts_imputation_seeds_measured_only", "fenced_fact_composition": "HMRC Benefits in kind statistics (July 2026): Table 1 car and car fuel benefit recipients, taxable value, income tax and NICs; Table 2A recipients by CO2 band; Table 2C recipients by fuel; Tables 3A and 3B recipients and taxable value by income range; Table 4 recipients by region", "fenced_fact_count": 96, @@ -821,11 +828,15 @@ "company_car_capital_contributions", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "rewrites": [ "employment_income", - "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment" + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits" ], "source": "The FRS job record's company car answers through frs_spine's carriers 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} diff --git a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_company_cars.py b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_company_cars.py index 127aff883a..080c6f94e4 100644 --- a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_company_cars.py +++ b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_company_cars.py @@ -92,9 +92,13 @@ "employment_income", "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", ], "epb_column": "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", + "pay_column": "hmrc_spi_pay", "benefits": ["company_car_benefit", "car_fuel_benefit"], + "cap": "epb_then_pay", "minimum_scaled_list_price_gbp": 5_000.0, }, { @@ -144,8 +148,15 @@ def company_cars_stage_spec( "company_car_private_fuel_provided", "employment_income", "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", + ), + rewrites=( + "employment_income", + "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", + "hmrc_spi_pay", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits", ), - rewrites=("employment_income", "uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment"), )