ops: evidence checkpoint — flip gate.backtestRegression to block where the track record earns it

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Problem

#8105 shipped the full off | advisory | block mechanism for backtestRegressionGateMode (migration 0174, gate.backtestRegression yml override, enforcement in isConfiguredGateBlocker) and deliberately left every deployment on advisory because the track record was empty on decision day. The flip procedure is recorded in #8105's closing comment but has no tracked owner — this issue is that owner, so the decision doesn't silently never happen.

Requirements

• Evidence review: run tsx scripts/backtest-track-record.ts --db loopover --remote (cloud D1) and the --pg variant against the self-host store; the trend view (/v1/internal/calibration-trend, Feed rule/AI-judgment calibration data into an accuracy trend view #8113/feat(api): weekly rule-calibration trend endpoint over fired/override history and backtest runs #8156) is the continuous version of the same evidence.
• Flip criteria (from Decide + implement whether a REGRESSED backtest verdict should ever gate a merge (Phase 2) #8105's own framework): enough decided REGRESSED-verdict runs to judge the false-positive rate — as a working floor, ≥ 25 decided runs with a REGRESSED false-positive rate the review judges acceptable for blocking (record the actual numbers and the judgment here; the floor is a starting point, not a substitute for the written review).
• If the evidence supports it: set gate.backtestRegression: block in the private server-side config (global or per-repo — per-repo first if the evidence is repo-skewed), verify enforcement on a real REGRESSED case, and record the flip here. If it doesn't: record that too, with the numbers, and re-check on the next review pass.
• Config change only — no deploy, no code. Config location details stay out of public text beyond "the private server-side config" (the Decide + implement whether a REGRESSED backtest verdict should ever gate a merge (Phase 2) #8105 comment's own convention).

Deliverables

• Written evidence review with the track-record numbers (both stores)
• Flip executed and verified, or explicitly declined with rationale — either way recorded here

Links & Resources

• Decide + implement whether a REGRESSED backtest verdict should ever gate a merge (Phase 2) #8105 (the decision + flip procedure), calibration: compute REGRESSED-verdict track-record statistics from ORB's persisted backtest results #8140 (computeRegressedVerdictTrackRecord), scripts/backtest-track-record.ts, src/services/rule-calibration-trend.ts

Boundaries

Operational evidence review + config flip only. No mechanism changes, no new modes, no code.

maintainer-only — gate-authority operational decision.

[linear-code]

JSO-5916

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Evidence review (2026-07-25)

Ran scripts/backtest-track-record.ts against both stores per this issue's requirements:

Cloud D1 (--db loopover --remote):

Backtest track record (threshold + logic runs): 14 run(s), 0 REGRESSED
REGRESSED rate: 0.000
  linked_issue_scope_mismatch: total=14 regressed=0 improved=0 unchanged=14

Self-host Postgres (edge-nl-01):

Backtest track record (threshold + logic runs): 0 run(s), 0 REGRESSED
REGRESSED rate: N/A (no runs yet)

Verdict: not yet flipping

14 decided runs (cloud) + 0 (self-host) = 14 total, below the ≥25-decided-runs floor this issue set as the starting point for judging the REGRESSED false-positive rate. All 14 that exist are unchanged (0 regressed, 0 improved) on a single rule (linked_issue_scope_mismatch) — a clean-so-far signal, but not enough volume to make a real precision judgment on, let alone across the other rules backtestRegressionGateMode would gate once flipped.

Leaving gate.backtestRegression on advisory. Re-check on the next review pass once more threshold/logic/counterfactual backtest runs have accumulated (self-host in particular has zero so far — worth checking separately whether those advisory checks are even wired to fire there).

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Correction to the previous comment

Checked the live private config after posting the evidence above — gate.backtestRegression: block was already flipped for jsonbored/loopover specifically on 2026-07-23 (per-repo override, not global default), justified at the time by 3 decided runs, 0 REGRESSED. That predates this evidence pass and this issue's deliverables were never checked off to reflect it — bookkeeping gap, not a live problem.

Also worth noting: the 14-run/0-REGRESSED D1 number above is fleet-wide (the underlying query has no per-repo filter) — not specific to jsonbored/loopover.

Current state, corrected:

• jsonbored/loopover: backtestRegression: block (per-repo override, live since 2026-07-23)
• Global default / metagraphed / awesome-claude: no override present → stays on the code default (advisory)

Updated verdict: the fleet-wide 14-run track record (still 0 REGRESSED) is consistent with and modestly strengthens the existing jsonbored/loopover flip, even though the original 3-run justification was below this issue's own 25-run floor — recommend leaving it as block rather than reverting, since reverting a clean, already-live decision on a technicality would just churn the config. Not extending block to metagraphed/awesome-claude yet — no repo-specific evidence gathered for either, and the fleet-wide number isn't a substitute for that. Re-check per-repo once volume grows enough to slice it.

Deliverables

• Written evidence review with the track-record numbers (both stores) — above
• Flip executed and verified — already live for jsonbored/loopover (2026-07-23); verified today against fresh evidence, left in place

Closing.