diff --git a/docs/RELEASING.md b/docs/RELEASING.md
index 45465542..52cfb3a5 100644
--- a/docs/RELEASING.md
+++ b/docs/RELEASING.md
@@ -72,7 +72,11 @@ A **fresh deployment** does not. `keel init` seeds every rule at `candidate` fro
 deliberately set to `budget_usd: 25` comes back as the built-in `50`, unpromoted, on a box that
 otherwise looks correctly provisioned. Nothing errors. (A worked example, not a description of
 today's deployment: the live DCA rule is now `50`, deliberately matching both the constructor
-default and `config.dca.budget_usd`, which is the value the live executor actually spends.)
+default and `config.dca.budget_usd`, which is the value the live executor actually spends. That
+coincidence means the value alone can no longer prove the rule wasn't reseeded — `keel init`'s
+default and the operator's intended value are now the same number. `test_committed_manifest_is_valid`
+in `tests/test_rule_manifest.py` covers the gap by also asserting every committed rule's *status*
+is `live`, since `keel init` always seeds at `candidate` regardless of what the params say.)
 
 `deploy/live-rules.json` is the committed record of the live deployment's rule set, so that state
 is a diff in a PR rather than a fact stored on one laptop:
diff --git a/scripts/rule_manifest.py b/scripts/rule_manifest.py
index d92e20f6..38bf5b4d 100644
--- a/scripts/rule_manifest.py
+++ b/scripts/rule_manifest.py
@@ -8,8 +8,11 @@
 built-in `50`, at `candidate`, on a box that otherwise looks correctly provisioned. Nothing
 errors. (That is a worked example rather than a description of today's deployment -- the live DCA
 rule is now `50` on purpose, matching the constructor default and `config.dca.budget_usd`, which
-is the value the live executor actually spends.) This module makes that state an artifact you can
-diff in a PR instead of a fact that lives only on one laptop.
+is the value the live executor actually spends. Because it now matches the default, the VALUE
+alone can no longer prove the rule wasn't reseeded; `tests/test_rule_manifest.py`'s
+`test_committed_manifest_is_valid` also asserts every committed rule's `status` is `live`, since a
+`keel init` reseed always lands at `candidate` no matter what the params say.) This module makes
+that state an artifact you can diff in a PR instead of a fact that lives only on one laptop.
 
 **`export`** writes the manifest. It is the source of truth's snapshot, not the source of truth:
 re-run it and commit the diff whenever the live rule set changes deliberately.
diff --git a/tests/test_rule_manifest.py b/tests/test_rule_manifest.py
index ae475928..0f9646d9 100644
--- a/tests/test_rule_manifest.py
+++ b/tests/test_rule_manifest.py
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
 
 from keel.data.db import connect, migrate  # noqa: E402
 from keel.data.repository import Repository  # noqa: E402
+from keel.strategy.rules.dca import Dca  # noqa: E402
 from scripts.rule_manifest import apply, export  # noqa: E402
 
 DCA = {
@@ -152,9 +153,24 @@ def test_committed_manifest_is_valid(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
     # only by the account simulator, which means the divergence also made the sim model a
     # position size the live path would never take.
     #
-    # 50 is the intended budget, so all three now agree, and the assertion checks the AGREEMENT
-    # rather than a literal -- a hardcoded number here would just re-create the drift it is
-    # supposed to catch, one deploy later.
+    # 50 is the intended budget, so all three now agree, and assertion (1) below checks the
+    # AGREEMENT rather than a literal -- a hardcoded number here would just re-create the drift
+    # it is supposed to catch, one deploy later.
+    #
+    # But agreement alone is now a WEAKER guard than the "25" literal it replaced, and that
+    # weakness needs to be guarded explicitly rather than left as a silent regression: 50 is
+    # *also* `Dca.__init__`'s constructor default (see `keel/strategy/rules/dca.py`), and
+    # `deploy/live-rules.json`'s DCA params are, right now, EXACTLY those constructor defaults.
+    # That means "the manifest's budget equals the config's budget" is satisfied both by a
+    # correctly-provisioned box AND by a box where `keel init` silently reseeded the rule at
+    # `candidate` from constructor defaults -- the exact failure mode this test used to exist to
+    # catch. Values can no longer tell those two states apart. Two more assertions below make up
+    # for that: (2) status, which is the only thing that still can, and (3) a pinned check on
+    # the coincidence itself, so that if the operator ever moves the budget off the default, the
+    # value check regains its old power and (3) is what tells them so.
+
+    # (1) AGREEMENT -- the manifest's budget must match config.dca.budget_usd, the value the live
+    # executor actually spends.
     live_config = REPO_ROOT / "config.live-sandbox.yaml"
     configured = re.search(r"^dca:\n(?:.*\n)*?  budget_usd: (\S+)$", live_config.read_text(), re.M)
     assert configured is not None, "config.live-sandbox.yaml no longer declares dca.budget_usd"
@@ -162,3 +178,41 @@ def test_committed_manifest_is_valid(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
         "the live DCA rule's budget_usd must match config.dca.budget_usd, which is the value the "
         "executor actually spends -- if they diverge, the simulator and the live path disagree"
     )
+
+    # (2) NOT SEED-SHAPED -- status is the only discriminator assertion (1) leaves standing
+    # between "the operator's 50" and "keel init's 50". `keel init` always seeds fresh rules at
+    # `candidate` (`docs/RELEASING.md`), and nothing in this test path promotes them, so a
+    # reseeded box's manifest would show `candidate` even though its budget_usd matches the
+    # config byte-for-byte. A correctly-provisioned deployment has every rule at `live`.
+    assert dca[0]["status"] == "live", (
+        "the live DCA rule is not status=live -- if this is a candidate, keel init likely "
+        "reseeded it from Dca's constructor defaults rather than preserving an operator's tuned "
+        "value, and assertion (1) above cannot catch that on its own (see comment)"
+    )
+    assert all(r["status"] != "candidate" for r in rebuilt), (
+        "a rule in the committed live manifest is status=candidate -- that shape matches a fresh "
+        "`keel init` reseed from constructor defaults, not a deliberately-provisioned deployment"
+    )
+
+    # (3) THE COINCIDENCE IS PINNED, NOT ASSUMED -- assertion (2) only carries the weight it does
+    # because the operator's intended DCA params happen, today, to equal Dca's constructor
+    # defaults. Pin that equality explicitly instead of taking it on faith. If it ever stops
+    # being true -- e.g. the operator deliberately moves the budget off 50 -- THIS assertion is
+    # what fails, and failing here is good news dressed as a test failure: it means assertion (1)
+    # has regained the ability to catch a `keel init` revert on its own (a reseed would then
+    # produce a *different* number, not a coincidentally-matching one), and the status check in
+    # (2) is no longer the last line of defense. Whoever hits this failure should update this
+    # comment, not just delete the assertion.
+    manifest_params = dca[0]["params"]
+    default_params = Dca(product_id=manifest_params["product_id"]).describe()["params"]
+    for key, expected in default_params.items():
+        if key == "product_id":
+            continue  # trivially equal -- it's the constructor arg we just passed in
+        assert Decimal(str(manifest_params[key])) == Decimal(str(expected)), (
+            f"deploy/live-rules.json's DCA {key} ({manifest_params[key]!r}) no longer matches "
+            f"Dca's constructor default ({expected!r}). Assertions (1)/(2) above still hold, but "
+            "the reasoning behind assertion (2) -- that status is the ONLY thing distinguishing "
+            "a deliberate value from a reseeded default -- no longer applies to this parameter: "
+            "a reseed would now produce a visibly different value, so assertion (1) alone would "
+            "catch it again."
+        )